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XRP Bull Breaker - 7.77:1 Short + Longterm ForecastI just finished a complete overhaul of my XRPUSD chart, a portion of which is on display here in order to publish my medium and long range forecasts for this most “distributive” of digital assets. If you are a long term Bull, you won’t like it, and yet since I operate by the Steel Man principle, I welcome your toughest questions and chart-based counter-arguments. As I always, I strive to render my ideas so that I need no words to explain them, although I can (and do) write detailed paragraphs (elsewhere). Anyways, in the short term, I expect price to fall below the $0.3785 shown here (purely for the 7.77 R-Value) down to ~ $0.34, then to ~ $0.28 in the medium term and finally to ~ $0.22 at or near the next BTC Halving event. From there your eye leads up to the Trend Exhaustion Limit and retraces until the end of 2025. Three years later, if my forecast is correct, there will be a final speculative peak, after which price should level off to some stable range of intrinsic value of ~ $5.89 throughout the next decade. Obviously, this chart is not tradable, per se, and serves instead as an an introduction and reference point for lower timeframe ideas and videos I intend to publish. The complete chart has many granular details for targeting stop losses, and new details will be constantly updated (and erased) as price action unfolds. Until then, be liquid!
BINANCE:XRPUSDShort
by TheLeadingIndicator
92
Distribution Curves and Investing I recently released an indicator called the Cumulative Distribution Density of Dataset indicator. One of the main highlights of this indicator is its, at the time of writing, the only indicator available on Tradingview/Pinescript that assesses the degree of normality as well as the type of distribution of a ticker, index or economic variable. Before this, you would need to export data into a statistical package such as Excel, SPSS, R or SAS to perform such an analysis. So I figured its probably time to talk about the bell curve again. Some of you may remember, I released an educational video called “Trading Using Bell Curves”: In this video, I discuss the implications of using bell-curves for trading. However, I want to reel it back and talk more specifically about distributions and trading, and why you, the investor and/or trader, should be paying attention to them. This is something I honestly have never seen talked about and really, you are doing yourself a huge disservice as a trader AND an investor for ignoring it. so let’s get into it! But before we start, I won't review the basics of the bell curve, but if you are interested, consider watching the video above. Alright, now on with the math! Understanding stock distributions, which come in various forms such as leptokurtic, platykurtic, and more, will provide you with valuable insights into market behavior and risk management. Did you know that certain distribution types can alert you that a stock generally has an unstable trajectory? And by looking at the distributions, you can also tell which stocks are more prone to aggressive crashes and which are more stable? Well you can, and I am going to teach you how! So let’s go over the main types of distributions in stocks and their implications for you as a trader. Types of Stock Distributions Normal Distribution This is probably the one you hear talked about a lot. A normal distribution, also known as Gaussian distribution or bell curve, is characterized by its symmetrical shape. In a normal distribution, the mean, median, and mode are all equal, and data points are evenly distributed around the central value. This distribution tends to be common in nature but tends to be not all that common in long term stocks. There are some exceptions; however. For example, NYSE:BAC (Bank of America) actually has a normally distributed dataset from initial listing to now: When stock returns follow a normal distribution, it becomes easier to predict future price movements and assess risk more easily. One way to do this is by using the cumulative distribution function (or CDF). Which is a mathematical function that provides the probability that a random variable takes on a value less than or equal to a specific value. For example, if we have 10 students with various test scores, we can plot all test scores using CDF and determine what the probability is that a random student’s test score will be above 90% or below 20%. We can visualize this on NYSE:BAC by having the indicator plot the CDF for NYSE:BAC : The image above plots the CDF distribution for NYSE:BAC on the monthly timeframe since its IPO. Because BAC is normally distributed, we can place a high level of confidence in the results of the CDF. We can also use the CDF to our advantage. How? By planning where we could buy. We should buy when the price is at a level where 50% to 60% or more of the time the price will fall above. Turning back to our BAC example, we can display this with a simple trendline: We can also operate on the assumption that NYSE:BAC is likely to go lower from here. Why? Because the normal distribution is not yet invalidated. As of right now, BAC retains a normal distribution. Thus, we can expect BAC to cycle back down to bring its CDF back towards 50% and 60%. We can see another example below, AMEX:XLE : Key Points for Tickers that are Normally Distributed: They tend to be more cyclical, having periods of sustained decline, followed by periods of sustained rise. They are the most stable and predictable type of ticker to invest or trade in, but tend to be general underperformers (because of their cyclical behaviour of decline and then rise). However, this is not always the rule, the advantage to a normally distributed ticker is you can calculate your likely returns to a high degree of accuracy! Some examples of stocks that have a normally distributed history are NYSE:T (AT&T), NYSE:BAC (Bank of America), AMEX:XLE (Energy ETF), T-Mobile and $BABA. You will generally notice that, if a ticker in one industry is normally distributed, chances are other tickers in the same sector is as well, even international tickers in the identical sector. For example, T-Mobile (TMUS), T (AT&T) and TSX:T (Telus) all are telecommunication providers and all have normally distributed data. They respond very well to log-linear and linear regression methods. But what about other distributions? Let’s talk about them. Leptokurtic Distribution A leptokurtic distribution is characterized by a higher peak and fatter tails than a normal distribution. In this distribution, extreme events, such as market crashes or rapid price spikes, are more likely to occur compared to a normal distribution. From my experience, most stocks fit this description, but one of major note is NYSE:BA : Leptokurtic distributions indicate higher volatility and a higher likelihood of extreme price movements. In general, you need to be more cautious with leptokurtic distributions because there is generally heightened volatility. A CDF on a leptokurtic distribution is not as clean, as we can see from plotting BA’s CDF: Because BA’s distribution is not normal, the CDF becomes slightly unreliable and we cannot employ the 60% rule. So can we still use the distribution to help us gauge entries? Yes! We can! However, it’s a bit more nuanced with leptokurtic distributions. The first thing to remember with leptokurtic distributions is… they crash… a lot. We can see this with BA: The flags in this chart represent areas BA has crashed. Crashes in leptokurtic distributions are usually characterized by a drop on the CDF of the probability a stock will go lower to around 75% to 85%. We can see this if we overlay the CDF for BA with the chart: These are the dips you would want to buy in a leptokurtic distribution. If we take a look at another example, AMD: Key Takeaways from Leptokurtic Tickers: They are among the most unstable tickers and experience among the most crashes. Your risk as an investor is heightened on any ticker that is leptokurtic. They do not respond well at all to log-linear or linear regression methods. Unlike normal distributions, leptokurtic distributions don’t generally follow sectors and they tend to be company specific tickers (which explains their proneness to crashing and volatility). Some major examples of leptokurtic distributions are NYSE:BA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:MSFT , Platykurtic Distribution A platykurtic distribution has a flatter and wider shape compared to a normal distribution. In this case, the data points are more spread out, and extreme events are less likely to occur. As such, platykurtic distributions suggest lower volatility and a more stable market environment. However, it is important to know that prolonged periods of low volatility can be followed by sudden spikes, leading to unexpected market movements. These are extremely rare distributions that I have not observed in any of the tickers I have traded. However, theoretically, platykurtic distributions would come in smooth waves up and down. We can visualize this if we look at SPY’s January 2022 highs till its October lows. This was a platykurtic, negative distribution (indicating a stable downtrend): Because platykurtic distributions are cyclical, you long on the bullish peaks when the probability of higher prices is >= 90% and short on the bearish peaks when the probability of downside is >= 90%: However, this is not at all prevalent or observed in stocks ever, so you would be lucky to find a platykurtic distribution! Key take aways from Platykurtic distributions: Playkurtic distributions, theoretically, are cyclical like the normal distribution, which make them more stable. They would be similar to normally distributed tickers in their under-performance, but superior in their ability to not generally experience equal rises and declines. Skewed Distribution A skewed distribution is asymmetric, with a longer tail on one side. Positive skewness means the tail is on the right (indicating more extreme positive values), while negative skewness implies a left tail (indicating more extreme negative values). Skewed distributions can signal a bias in market sentiment. For example, positive skewness may indicate a bullish bias, while negative skewness may suggest a bearish bias. While many people look to EMAs or trendlines to identify long-standing bull or bear markets, its actually not necessary, you can ascertain this simply from the distribution. If we take a look at SPY: This is SPY’s distribution since the IPO. We can see that it has a positive skewness (right tail), with extreme outliers. This signals to us, the investors, that SPY has been in a bull run since its IPO. Despite multiple corrections and bear markets, SPY retains the distribution characteristic of a bullish stock. In fact, SPY frequently experiences extremely positive outliars (outliars to the upside) more often than extremely negative outliars (crashes to the downside). This is observed with its positive skewedness. Planning entries on a positively or negatively skewed ticker is a bit more difficult. Crashes substantial enough to bring the probability of going higher to 50% or more tend to be rare (see image below): So when you are dealing with a positively skewed stock, its best to apply alternative, complementary strategies to determine entries, such as using regression channels, longer running EMAs or time series modelling. You can still use CDFs, but you will need to focus on a narrower timeframe. For example, if we plot SPY from its January high to the current day, we can see the data is normally distributed and thus can refer to our parameters for entry on a normal distribution: Key Takeaways from the Skewed Distribution: The Skewed distribution are going to net you your returns (assuming, of course, the ticker is POSITIVELY skewed). These are the tickers that tend to experience exponential growth and returns. Skewed distributions tend to outperform other distribution types, but not without risk. Skewed distributions have an inherent tendency to see dramatic outliars either up or down. Unlike a leptokurtic distribution which is more prone to crashes, a positively skewed distribution is more likely to experience extreme outliars to the upside (meaning bull runs) than to the downside. However, a negatively skewed distribution is more likely to experience more frequent and dramatic drops to the downside than to the upside. So pay attention to the skewness! If it is negative, the risk of a downturn is greatly augmented. Skewed distributions respond reasonably well to log-linear and linear regression methods. Famous example is AMEX:SPY of course! Conclusion While I didn’t cover all possible distributions, I did cover the main ones to pay attention to. However, I hope you now have a better understanding and appreciation for the importance of paying attention to the distributions of stocks. The importance of this is often underestimated but it is, in fact, a crucial aspect of successful investing and trading. Various distribution types, such as normal, leptokurtic, platykurtic, and skewed, provide valuable insights into market behavior and risk assessment. Investors and traders who take the time to understand these distributions can make more informed decisions, manage risk effectively, and enhance their overall success. Thanks so much for reading and hopefully you learned something! Safe trades and, as always, feel free to share your questions and comments below :-). By the way, the indicator is linked below if you would like!
NYSE:BACEducation
by Steversteves
4
ATOM Looks Bullish!!Long Entry Trigger Cosmos Has found support above a pivot low and has also swept those lows. Buying pressure seems to have come in and it's now consolidating above support. The most probable outcome is that the price moves a little higher from here. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Calculate Your Risk/Reward! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Long
by Navitility
REN/USD Main trend. Accumulation 637. Distribution 637.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. The main trend. The psychology of accumulation and distribution zones. The graph shows and describes the logic of work in the accumulation and distribution zones of large and small market participants (fuel). Coin as an example. It's always the same. But, always those who are “market fuel” are sure: "This time it will be different. But, no miracle happens. It's always the same. “Market fuel” changes cycle after cycle. Most people's memories are short. Many people think they're special, or the timing is wrong... but it's always the same. In distribution, they willingly buy expensive. In the accumulation on the contrary, afraid, waiting lower, lower and so on... Project and News Ren is an open protocol that allows value to move between blockchains. RIP-000-018: Financing Ren 2.0 and the Ren Foundation Early last year, Alameda acquired Ren in partnership with Ren's previous management to provide long-term development funding. Also, after the story with Alameda (scam, trial) in the network REN 1 will be shut down (waiting for the right moment according to the general market trend), the new network REN 2 will be launched. Read more on the project website itself (read between the lines). ICO price 02 2018 ICO: 17200 REN = 1 ETH. Now the price of ETH is about $ 1200, therefore, the price of the ICO in conversion to USD will be REN 0.069, which is slightly lower than the current price of 0.063 Linear graph Secondary trend. Time Frame, 3 days. The secondary trend is distinctly downward. A downward wedge is forming. From the peak, the price decreased by -95% at the moment. This is very much, but if you consider the inadequate pumping of +11,000%, it is normal. Think about it, the distribution has been 1.76 years. Many people got used to the “stable” price for such a long time and over time were no longer afraid to buy “cheap” because from the support of the distribution pumped by a significant % repeatedly. Also note that the accumulation and distribution over time of duration are identical. I showed the maximum local pumping from the key support zones when the wedge is broken, i.e. the exit from the downtrend. Let me remind you that at the moment the trend has a pronounced downtrend. You can work positional trading from the average buy/sell price of the medium/long term, or you can wait for the price to exit a downtrend, that is, to exit a wedge with significant buyer volume. In order to understand further work, and the potential, figure out what manipulation REN1 - REN2 coin holders want to do.
R
by SpartaBTC
34
How to Use the Accumulation/Distribution IndicatorLearning how to identify accumulation and distribution in an asset is an important skill to have for any trader. Luckily, there’s a handy tool we can use: the aptly-named Accumulation/Distribution indicator. In this article, we’ll show you how this accumulation/distribution indicator works, where it’s best applied, and how you can combine it with other tools to boost your odds of success. What Is the Accumulation/Distribution Indicator? The accumulation/distribution indicator, also called the accumulation/distribution index, accumulation/distribution line, and abbreviated to A/D, is a cumulative indicator that uses price and volume data to measure the strength of an asset’s trend. It helps traders identify buying and selling pressure in the market and can show whether an asset is likely to continue trending or is due for a reversal. It was created by renowned trader Marc Chaikin, who also developed the famous Chaikin Money Flow indicator. Accumulation vs Distribution Accumulation occurs when buying pressure outweighs selling pressure, resulting in price appreciation. Conversely, distribution is where sellers have the upper hand over buyers, creating downward momentum. In practice, the plotted A/D line will move up when accumulation is present and down when distribution occurs. Accumulation/Distribution Oscillator Formula and Components The ADI seeks to quantify an asset's buying and selling pressure by considering its trading range and trading volume. First, it calculates the Money Flow Multiplier (MFM) using the following formula: MFM= ((Close−Low)−(High−Close)) / High−Low This results in a reading between -1 and 1. When the price closes in the upper half of its high-low range, the MFM will be positive. If it closes in the lower half, then MFM will be negative. In other words, if buying pressure is strong, the MFM will rise, and vice versa. Second, it generates the Money Flow Volume (MFV) with the following: Money Flow Volume = MFM × Volume For the first candle in a given chart, the MFV is the first A/D value. Since the indicator is cumulative, the MFV is added to the previous A/D value. In essence: First Calculation = (ADI = MFV) Subsequent Calculations = (ADI + MFV) This then creates the A/D line. While it may seem unnecessary to know the formula, it can provide us with significant insight into how an accumulation/distribution rating is given. For example, a strong bullish trend may cause an asset to close high in its trading range, producing an MFM reading close to 1. If this is backed up by high volume, the A/D line will surge upward. However, if the volume is lacking, then the A/D may only increase slightly. Thankfully, we don’t need to perform this calculation ourselves. With the free TickTrader platform we offer at FXOpen, you’ll find the accumulation/distribution indicator and dozens of other tools ready to help you navigate the markets. How to Use the Accumulation Distribution Indicator There are three popular ways to use the A/D indicator: identifying reversals, trend confirmation, and trading breakouts. Identifying Reversals One of the most effective uses of A/D is to spot potential reversals using divergences between the price and the A/D line. A bullish divergence occurs when the price falls, making lower lows, while the A/D line trends upward, creating higher lows. Conversely, a bearish divergence can be seen when an asset makes new highs, but the A/D puts in lower highs. It essentially shows us that while the price is moving in a specific direction, the underlying pressure supporting the move is waning. The example above demonstrates that fewer sellers are participating as the trend progresses lower; eventually, buyers take over and push the price much higher. Trend Confirmation A/D line can also be used to confirm the direction of a trend. In this context, traders monitor the alignment of the line with the price action. In an uptrend, both the price and A/D should be rising. If the A/D moves in the same direction as the price, it confirms the strength of the uptrend and suggests that the buying pressure is likely to continue. As in the chart, traders could have used the A/D and price alignment to position themselves in the direction of the bull trend. Similarly, during a downtrend, the price and the A/D should be falling. If the A/D is falling alongside the price, it indicates that the selling pressure is strong, and the downtrend is likely to persist. Trading Breakouts Lastly, A/D can help traders confirm breakouts beyond support/resistance levels. If there’s a critical level that a trader is watching to jump in on the breakout, a breakout beyond a similar level in the A/D indicator can signal the start of a new trend. In the example, we see a strong resistance level, both in price and the accumulation distribution chart. As the move is confirmed by A/D, breaking out above both dashed lines, traders have confidence that the price is ready to move higher. Integrating the Accumulation and Distribution Indicator with Other Tools While the A/D indicator is a valuable tool on its own, it’s best to use it in combination with other indicators to help filter out false signals and improve the accuracy of your predictions. Let’s take a look at two indicators to integrate with A/D: moving averages and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Moving Averages Moving averages are a popular tool used by many traders to determine the direction of a trend, especially when two moving averages cross over. As mentioned, the trajectory of the A/D line can show traders that a trend is supported by volume; similarly, a price sitting above or below a moving average can indicate a trend’s direction. Using the two together can provide an at-a-glance reading of a trend, which can be extremely useful for trend-following traders. In this example, we’ve used the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) cross indicator in TickTrader, with two 20-period and 50-period EMAs. The fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA, showing that a potential bullish trend is forming. The price continues to stay well above the 50-period EMA as time progresses, demonstrating that there’s a strong bull trend. We also have confirmation from the A/D line that the bullish momentum is backed up by supporting volume. Seeing this, traders can be confident that the trend will continue. When the EMAs cross over bearishly, as seen on the right-hand side, traders may start looking for the A/D line to confirm that a bearish trend has started and exit their position. RSI Similar to the A/D indicator, RSI can be used to both spot divergences and confirm trends. The divergences are the same as A/D; a lower low in a price with a higher low in the RSI indicates a potential bullish reversal, while a price making a higher high and a lower low in RSI is regarded as bearish. Meanwhile, an RSI reading above 50 is typically seen as bullish, while below is bearish. Using the two indicators together can offer traders extra confluence that the market is headed in a particular direction. In the chart shown, we can see that the price is making a lower low. However, the Apple stock’s accumulation/distribution line shows a bullish divergence, as does the RSI. Traders could have marked the most recent area of resistance (dashed line), and then waited for the price to break out above it before looking for an entry. This move was confirmed by the RSI moving above 50, showing that bullish momentum is truly entering the market and offering multiple factors of confluence. What to Do Next You now have a comprehensive understanding of the accumulation/distribution indicator, including its formulation, its three main uses, and how to combine it with other indicators for extra confirmation. Ready to put your newfound knowledge to the test? You can open an FXOpen account to apply what you’ve learned and hone your trading skills across a diverse range of markets, from forex and commodities to stocks and indices. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Editors' picks
Education
by FXOpen
3
ABBV more probable to go down first before reaching ATHThis idea is based on Wyckoff's method for determining price objectives using the Point & Figure count of distribution ranges. We can a distribution ranges following schematic 2 for Wyckoff's distribution. If we take count the ranges separately, this yields a potential reversal zone between 118.50 and 94.50 dollar per share. Personally I am intend to buy if price reached 106.50 (mid point) All other information is on the chart. Good luck, NQDecipher
NYSE:ABBVShort
by NQunlocked
ENPH looks Doomed if this Wyckoff Distribution Plays OutIve discussed Wyckoff Distributions before on this page. For a simple breakdown of this pattern, I've related this post to a previous post that can be found below. Anyway, I believe we are seeing many of the same distribution cycle elements on this solar stock. I think we are currently in phase D which is usually characterized by a false bullish breakout into a downtrend. I am concerned about the lack of a clear downtrend after creating the false break. Notice the higher lows being created by the wicks in the lower portion of the channel. Long lower wicks with relatively small/avg volume suggest that selling pressure is weak. If that is the case, big money is not yet ready to take this lower. I will be monitoring this price action closely and looking for more false breakouts and retests of the upper channel. I plan to build short positions above $200 if the opportunity presents itself. Price targets to the downside include $95, $60, and $35.
NASDAQ:ENPHShort
by Decam9
13
Trade #2 of 5 BILI Puts and CallsObviously if the market goes against my bias this trading plan is no longer viable....at that point I will just make a new one to support what I see. However with the recent decline in its financials and on going poor performance, this cash cow is getting kicked to the curb by all institutional and or being slammed into the earth like a seed in hopes that it will someday blossom into some man eating plant. Its an anime company so, totally do able. I've made a 5 trade plan to support what I saw when I first started trading BILI last week. If you like what you see or are intriqued pls like / follow / and Boost so others can see it. Thanks. by iCantw84it 04.10.23
NASDAQ:BILIShort
by iCantw84it
1
RYTM- More downside to come? NASDAQ:RYTM This stock seems to be following a textbook Wyckoff market cycle and appears to be transitioning from markup to markdown. Mid May was the beginning of a multi week base building/accumulation On June 16-17 we can see the "spring" that preceded a huge markup in prices. After that a sharp rally in prices into the $11-$13 range that formed a pennant continuation pattern, then earnings came and boom it shot into a preliminary supply area(PSY) followed by a 35% move from $20 to a day high of 27.21 buying climax (BC). Last weeks UTAD failed rally/ blowoff top on high volume gave way to this weeks feeble rally with red hourly candles on high volume, showing that big players are dumping shares onto greedy retail traders, who are providing liquidity. A crown has formed and todays large red candles punched down into lower prices with a high probability of lower prices in the future. The last points of supply (LPSY) seem inevitable. Given the context of Julys " bad news is good news" rallies in many stocks this was one that wasn't left behind. It appreciated 10x from its June low! This stock is slowly dripping down into a low volume area. Once there, it might just liquidate dramatically downside. Will be on the lookout next week for any relief rallies that will provide low risk short entries. Ultimate target would be the $17.04 .5 fib or $13.76 .618 fib range, potentially lower considering the current state of the market. Please like, comment or follow :)
NASDAQ:RYTMShort
by robbtronic
Wyckoff Distribution Patterns - GBPUSD 298 and 170 - decreasing volume at the tops of the chart. After the peak marked with the volume of 170, the next peaks are with much less buyer activity. In summary, buyers have lost their power. In addition, the chart shows the largest sell-off wave 233. This is the largest volume under the swing since we entered the sideways consolidation. Indicators used: Wyckoff Wave Chart What do you think about this chart? Follow us for updates!
Short
by VolumeDayTrader