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T-notes

#NOT/USDT#NOT The price is moving in an ascending channel on the 1-hour frame and is sticking to it greatly and is about to break upwards Some decline is expected to touch the lower limit of the channel We have a bounce from the lower limit of the channel at a price of 0.007000 We have an upward trend on the RSI indicator about to break, which supports the rise We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 Entry price 0.007459 First target 0.007980 Second target 0.008738 Third target 0.009700
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
#NOT/USDT#NOT The price is moving within a descending channel pattern on the 4-hour frame, which is a retracement pattern We have a bounce from a major support area in the color EUR at 0.012000 We have a tendency to stabilize above the Moving Average 100 We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the rise and gives greater momentum and the price is based on it Entry price is 0.013800 The first target is 0.017810 The second goal is 0.021840 The third goal is 0.02540
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal
🗓️Weekly Report: Probabilities are stacking to the lowGENERAL MARKET REVIEW The stock market kicked off the day on a high note, with stocks initially experiencing gaps upwards and a brief period of appreciation. Nonetheless, these early gains were short-lived, as the market faced significant downturns for the remainder of the session. In today's trading, both the S&P-500 and Nasdaq indices have fallen through their 50-day moving average markers amid substantial trading volumes, signaling a bearish outlook. This further reinforces the notion that holding cash remains the superior strategy. We'll begin our chart analysis with a look at the Nasdaq-100 ( NASDAQ:QQQ ) and S&P-500 ( SP:SPX ) SPX-500 –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– META Sliced today and looks like it is heading to the 50D SMA. Could see a bounce but it is very much market dependent –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– NVDA Carving out a nice base with earnings coming on 22APR (Wednesday). The next buy point is above the $974 level on high volume, however I will look to play a pivot breakout before hand near the danger point, so that I would look to hold into earnings (IF I GET CUSHION) –––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– SMTC Down just fractionally today. It is setting a Bull Flag Pattern. If it breaks the lower side of the channel I d cut it loose.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TintinTrading
US treausires are showing bullish patternTreasuries are trying to recover after making some nice and deep pullback in last few months as FED decided to wait on more economic data before they may finally cut rates. The pattern on 10 year US notes is looking bullish here after that impulse up since Novemeber, seen as wave (A), so obviously this tells us in which direction market can move after a retracement. Probably up! Well, this retracement in three waves is already visible on the charts below, so speculators can be positioned for more upside into wave (C) in months ahead, especially if FED is really going to cut rates this year, and if maybe NFP data finally disappoints this Friday. In such case, I think metals can explode, while the dollar sells off. Speculation for BOJ rate change in March and possibly"hawkish" ECB tomorrow (compared to FED) can help the dollar to be sold IMO. The only concern is risk-off, but bearish dollar/ bullish stocks correlation hasn't been there for a while anyway. Hope you love the analysis. GH
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by ew-forecast
Buying Opportunity in T-Notes? After putting in a bottom in mid-October, T-notes have rallied sharply higher. Patient bulls have been afforded few opportunities to enter the contracts on a pullback, but that may soon change. Pullbacks are a healthy part of any sustained rally, as they allow market participants to take profits from longer held positions, and reallocate capital in the direction of the prevailing trend. Fundamental Snapshot : T-Note prices are inversely related to yields - meaning that as yields decline, the price of T-Notes will rise. After the last Fed meeting, Chair Powell suggested that the Fed may be cutting rates as much as 3 times in 2024. As displayed on CME’s FedWatch Tool below, the market is pricing in a 77.2% probability that the first rate cut may come as soon as March. If that materializes, T-note prices should continue to press higher. Talkin’ Technicals : The white line on the bottom of the chart labeling short-term bearish divergence on RSI in the bottom indicates that the market is making successive new highs on decreasing momentum, and that the market remains in overbought territory. Meaning that the current rally is effectively running out of steam. Furthermore, volume has steadily decreased since the previous high. If there are no more bulls willing to enter the market, it will likely result in a pullback. A pullback on price will force current bulls to liquidate long positions to capture profit, and afford new bulls to enter the market amidst the correction. Fed policy is a major function in establishing the longer-term trend in T-notes and bonds. By lowering rates in 2024, one should expect both T-notes and bonds to perform well pricewise. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:TN1!Long
by Blue_Line_Futures
Yield Curve Bottom (10s minus 2s) This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining a “long” short-dated bond position with a “short” long-dated bond position, while a flattener involves sale of short-term bonds and purchase of long-term bonds. - CFA Institute
TVC:US10YLong
by jBTCkingaling
1
Interest Rate Futures and the First Cash Settled ContractCME: Eurodollar Futures ( CME:GE1! ), CBOT: Treasury Bond Futures ( CBOT:ZB1! ) This is the second installment of the Holidays series “Celebrating 50 Years of Financial Futures.” Before 1970, commercial banks did business by accepting short-term deposits at low regulated rates and offering longer-term business and personal loans at higher rates. Double-digit inflation changed all that. Federal Reserve eliminated interest rate ceilings on time deposits under 3 months in 1970, and on those over 3 months in 1973. Banks incurred huge loss from a negative spread with deposit rate higher than loan rate. Fast forward to 2022, we find ourselves in a high inflation and an inverted yield-curve environment again. The overnight Fed Funds rate (4.00%) is nearly 500 basis points higher than the 10-Year Treasury Note (T-Note) yield (3.51%) as of December 4th. Rising interest rates increase the financing cost from businesses to households alike. The Fed’s six consecutive rate hikes from March to November 2022 contributed to significant drawdown in the value of stocks, bonds, and commodities. If you bought $100,000 of Treasury bonds (T-bonds) in January, its market value could drop as much as 30% with bond yield jumping to 3.5% from 1.5%. If you owe $10,000 in credit card debt, monthly interest rate charge could run up to 25% a year from 15%. Like foreign exchange, interest rate is not a physical commodity. It is a right to holders of an interest-bearing product, and a liability to its issuer. The above examples show that both buyer and seller could have large financial exposure to changes in interest rates. To hedge interest rate risks, futures contracts were invented in Chicago futures markets, namely, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). CBOT Ginnie Mae Futures Government National Mortgage Association is a US government supported entity within the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The nickname “Ginnie Mae” come from its acronym GNMA. GNMA issues Ginnie Mae certificates, a type of mortgage-backed passthrough securities. Investors receive interest and principal payments from a large pool of mortgage loans. Since timely payments are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, Ginnie Mae bonds are considered default risk free and have an AAA credit rating. Although they are free from default risk, holders of Ginnie Mae bonds are exposed to interest rate risk, as bond price moves inversely with bond yield. Sensing the need from savings and loans, mortgage bankers, and dealers of mortgage-backed securities, CBOT launched Ginnie Mae Bond Futures in October 1975. This was the first time a futures contract was based on an interest-bearing instrument. At contract expiration, futures buyers would receive actual Ginnie Mae bonds from futures sellers. While the Ginnie Mae contract has since delisted, it paved the way for the successful launches of other interest rate futures contracts in the 1970s and 1980s. CME Treasury Bill Futures Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term securities issued by the US Treasury to help finance the spending of the federal government. New T-bills with maturities of thirteen, twenty-six, and fifty-two weeks are issued on a regular basis. The secondary market for T-bills is active, making them among the most liquid of money market instruments. In May 1972, the International Monetary Market (IMM) division of the CME launched foreign exchange futures, the first financial futures contract. In January 1976, the IMM listed futures contract on 90-day (13-week) T-bills. It was the first futures contract for a money market instrument. Nobel laureate Milton Friedman rang the opening bell on T-Bill Futures launch day. Upon maturity, seller is required to deliver T-bills with a $1 million face value and thirteen weeks left to maturity. Contracts for delivery in March, June, September, and December are listed. At any one time, contracts for eight different delivery dates are traded. T-bills do not pay explicit interest. Instead, they are sold at a discount to redemption value. The difference between the two prices determines the interest earned by a buyer. T-bill yields are quoted on a discount basis. Futures contracts are quoted on an index devised by the IMM, by subtracting the discount yield from 100. Index values move in the same direction as T-bill price. A rise in the index means that the price of a future delivered T-bill has risen. The formula for calculating the discount yield is: Discount Yield = ((Face Value - Purchase Price) / Face Value) X (360 / Days to Maturity) CBOT Treasury Bond Futures In August 1977, CBOT launched futures contracts on the T-Bonds. At the time, the birth of T-bond futures hardly seemed like a breakthrough. Financial futures were still in their infancy. Soybeans and corn were king in the CBOT trading pit. But all that changed in October 1979 when the Fed moved to strangle runaway inflation with a revised credit policy. The Saturday night massacre, as it was dubbed, ended decades of interest-rate stability. Interest rates bounced like a Ping Pong, affected by money supply, world events and inflation. Trading of T-Bond futures took off like a rocket. In addition to the traditional T-Bond futures (ZB) with 15-year maturity, CBOT also lists a 20-Yr T-Bond futures (TWE) and an Ultra T-Bond (UB) with 30-year maturity. In the Mid-curve, the T-Note suite includes 2-Yr Note (ZT), 3-Yr Note (Z3), 5-Yr Note (ZF), 10-Yr Note (ZN), and Ultra 10-Yr T-Note (TN). On December 2, 2022, daily volume of the first T-Bond futures was 388,370 contracts, while open interest reached 1,170,800 contracts. Daily volume of all CME Group interest rates futures and options contracts (IR) reached 13,786,454 lots, contributing to 54.1% of Exchange total. IR open interest was 78,244,297 lots, representing 70.4% of Exchange total. Cash Settlement Comes to Futures Market Up until now, futures contracts were settled by physical delivery of the underlying commodities. • Buyer of 1 CME Live Cattle may pick up 35 cows (40,000 pounds) from Union Stockyard in Chicago southside or take delivery at a cattle auction in Wyoming. • Seller of 1 CBOT Soybean contract would ship 5,000 bushels of the grain to a licensed grain elevator in Illinois, Iowa, or Kansas. • For CME Pork Bellies, settlement may involve title changes of warehouse receipt from seller to buyer for 40,000 pounds of the frozen meat in a cold storage. Even financial futures required physical delivery at that time. • For British Pound/USD contract, it is £62,500 in pound sterling. • For Ginnie Mae contract, it is $10 million worth of Ginnie Mae certificate. • T-Bond futures calls for delivery of treasury bonds with face value of $100,000 and maturity of no less than 15 years. As we discussed in “The Bogeyman in Financial Contracts”, there is inherent risk in the physical delivery mechanism. No matter how robust its original design is, industry evolution could outgrow capacity, rendering delivery failure under extreme market conditions. In December 1981, CME launched Eurodollar futures, the first contract with cash settlement feature. Cash settlement alone can be viewed as a financial revolution. Why? • It significantly reduces transaction cost, which in turn enhances the risk transfer or hedging function in futures. • It allows non-commercial users to participate in futures. Broader participation improves liquidity, and the price discovery as well as risk management functions. CME Eurodollar Futures Eurodollars are dollar-deposits held with banks outside of the US. There are two types of Eurodollar deposits: nontransferable time deposits and certificates of deposit (CDs). Time deposits have maturities ranging from 1 day to 5 years, with 3 months being the most common. Eurodollar CDs are also commonly issued with maturities under a year. Technically, buyer of Eurodollar future contract is required to place $1,000,000 in a 3-month Eurodollar time deposit paying the contracted interest rate on maturity date. However, this exists only in principle and is called a “Notional Value”. Cash settlement means that actual physical delivery never takes place; instead, any net changes in the value of the contract at maturity are settled in cash on the basis of spot market Eurodollar rates. Unlike T-bills, Eurodollar deposits, the underlying of Eurodollar futures, pay explicit interest. The interest paid on such deposit is termed an add-on yield because the depositor receives the face amount plus an explicit interest payment when the deposit matures. In the case of Eurodollar, the add-on yield is the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), which is the interest rate at which major international banks offer to place Eurodollar deposits with one another. Like other money market rates, LIBOR is an annualized rate based on a 360-day year. Price quotations for Eurodollar futures are based on the IMM Eurodollar futures price index, which is is 100 minus the LIBOR. In the following four decades, all financial futures are designed with cash settlement. Eurodollar futures paves the way for equity index futures, which were launched in February 1982 at Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) and April 1982 at CME. Without cash settlement, can you imagine how to deliver 500 different stocks on a market-weighted basis for the S&P 500 futures? Or 2,000 stocks for the Russell 2000? Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
11
USDJPY Top? Reversal Confrimed by BoJ but not by 10 YR US YeildsMarkets finished last week in volatile fashion after a drop on USDJPY on speculation of BOJ intervention, which also had an impact on other markets. This JPY volatility has resumed today with another back and forht moves with 400 pips on USDJPY following Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda comments from clarifying whether they intervened in the market but reiterated that they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive, disorderly market moves. We see sharp drop on USDJPY after a completed five wave rise near 152. Notice that the drop is sharp, but not clear if that is a top. It may all depend on the upcoming direction on US yields, which so far turned nicely down, but cant say that uptrend is down when trendline still holds and yields trades above 4%.
by ew-forecast
2
U.S. Bonds – It’s Major Uptrend Has Broke BelowU.S Bonds market is larger than the largest American companies combined, therefore it is important to also track the health of the bonds market. • U.S Bonds size - market value estimated $46 trillion • Largest American companies size - market capitalization estimated $42 trillion The bonds market moves in tandem with the stock markets, meaning when the general trend of the bonds is up, so will be the stock markets. Similarly, when the bond markets are bear, so will the stocks. The decades of U.S. Bonds uptrend were broken in the month April 2022. This indicates a long-term downtrend for the bond markets. Source and reference: As of 08 Jul 2022 from companiesmarketcap in U.S. The total companies 6,332, total market cap: $81.241T. The largest American companies by market cap, 3,269 companies 3,269, total market cap: $41.66 T. As of 2021, the size of the bond market (total debt outstanding) is estimated to be at $119 trillion worldwide and $46 trillion for the US market, according to Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Feel free to leave any comments below, I love to exchange ideas with you. Also to check the video link below...
CBOT:ZB1!Short
by konhow
U.S. Bonds & Stocks is ready for a rebound, why?One of the ways to determine U.S. stocks and indices’ direction in the long-term is to also know where the U.S. bonds markets are heading. Why? This is because the US bonds, its market capitalization can be as large as all the U.S. stocks market combined; therefore, it is also as important to also track its direction. In the macro trend over generations, the bonds move in tandem with the stocks market, meaning if bonds are heading up, the stocks market will likely follow. • Where is the main trend of the 30 Years T-Bond? • Why is the stocks market due for a rebound in the coming week? For this demonstration, I am using the CBOT U.S. 30 years T Bond Futures. If you are interested to research and explore into other treasuries tenures and the yield curve, under symbol search, Futures tab – search for Bonds, Notes or Yields. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by konhow
10 Year Note Yield / 10 Year NoteIt's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent. The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789. 9 States had ratified the US Constitution. In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit. Congress became far more dependent on the printing of money, which led to hyperinflation. Congress lacked the authority to levy taxes - doing so would have risked alienating an American public that had gone to war with the British over the issue of taxation without representation for the Crown. ________________________________________________________________ The first 6 Months of 2022 have been a disaster for Bonds. Unfortunately, it is simply just beginning. At present, the "Disinflation Wave" is in the trade as the Media / Wall Street ups the narrative and continues to bang the Commodity Rollover as evidence. Typically (although we do not use History as a Guide as this is the largest Bear Market in History, it is unprecedented as we have noted for months) we see an 8 to 13 Month mismatch cycle for "Dis-Inflation". Although Demand Destruction is being accelerated in Capital Stock losses, people eat, drink, drive... consume material things required for their very existence. _________________________________________________________________ The most recent 4-week, 8-week, 13-week, 2year, 5-year, and 7-year auctions were a significant failure at a time when the FED reportedly reduced their balance sheet by $21B after a retracement for several weeks off the May 25th outsized and front-run dump of $51B. Meanwhile, Reverse Repurchase pools continue to swell to new all-time highs, most recently $2.34T - earning 1.55% and safely out of perceived harm's way. Depression concerns are clearly intensifying. 2 Year Bond Futures continue to Invert intra-day. M1 / M2 / M3 continue to flee to the Big Lots Pool. _________________________________________________________________ Negative GDP reinforces the Demand Destruction - Consumers will out how Inflation peaks... Central Banks claim to want Positive Real Rates. Consumers are rolling over, demand destruction is seeing far broader participation as Savings / Investment / Incomes decline at the highest ROC's in decades. This would require an outside Fed Fund Futures move, one that appears improbable for the near term. I'd like Ashley Trevort Twins - Seems improbable as well. The difference is, that the odds favor my wish. The Bond Market will retrace in select points on the Yield Curve, but ultimately the Negative real rate to Inflation will find its Afterburner. _________________________________________________________________ Entities are not going to step up, this is clear. The ticking insolvency bomb fuse was lit in early 2021... How long is that fuse? Not long. Equities remain the Capital stock to destroy, Housing / Alt Coins / Metals ... etal are not long for this environment. In order for Global Central Banks to meet their stated objectives... they'll need to become far more aggressive. Will they...
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
2