10Yr Up 3 Big Figures From Equality Test, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action in the US10yr T-Notes and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target.
T-notes
T-Notes Equality Objective Achieved, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action un the US T-Notes and identify the next high probability trading pattern and price objectives to target.
10 Yr T Note Major Downside Target In this update we review the recent price action in the US 10Yr T-Note and identify the next high probability trade location and target
10 Year Note Yield - 2%+ Ahead Into June - AugustThe Price Objective remains 2.28%.
Beyond sewing the usual seeds of discontent, observe the Larger Monthly Indications.
The above Chart is of extreme importance, it demonstrates how Capital Stocks begin to
turn, Glacial at first, as Momentum builds, they begin to accelerate.
This will end up a 4 or 5 part series discussing the potential impacts.
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Price has broken above 2 Key Downtrends. It is attempting to reach the 3rd, which has acted
as resistance for years.
This is a material change in the underlying Bond Market Note Structure. It is no longer the
conventional depository for Principal and Coupon as a great many believe.
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Capital Stocks are in need of review:
Real Estate - the Hybrid / Principal and Coupon (Rents) A Negative correlation to Higher Rates
with cascading effects to Higher Rates. A 70% increase in Conventional and Jumbo Mortgage
Rates would see a 18 to 24% drop in the Price of Residential Real Estate.
Equities - the Buyback / Prop where Corporate Debt is used for Buybacks
Increased borrowing Costs temper Buybacks, Inflows do not. This is a double
edged sword we will discuss in detail.
Bitcoin - The repository (Not Depository) for excess Liquidity. BTC has a Positive
correlation to rising Rates. BTC has a Price Objective near $137K at the extreme
extensions for Rates of the 10 Year Note Yield.
Bills / Notes / Bonds / - Debt instruments with attendant Hybrid function of Principal / Coupon.
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Bonds (prior to 2006) were traditionally a function of the Business Cycle which has been supplanted
by the Credit Cycle (no longer a Cycle by appearances).
Prior to 2008 Congress would pass a Bill in the Legislature, after speaking with the US Treasury to
determine how to "Finance" its Fiscal requirements. Once the Bill was passed and signed into Law,
the US Treasury would conduct operations with the Federal Reserve Central Bank in New York to
issue the increased Credit/Debt (The FED taking their statutory 6% issuance) to the US Government.
Bills, Note and Bonds would be placed with Primary Broker Dealers (Fed Member Banks) and offered
at "Auction" to the Public, Institutions, exogenous Central Banks, Funds, Swaps and overnight Swaps
for shorter duration T-Bills sweeps.
This funding mechanism for DEBT no longer exists.
FASB 56 - took the Governments Budgets and Funding "Dark" as a "Matter of National Security". The
General Purpose Federal Financial Reports are Classified Documents.
The material Facts of FASB 56 - files.fasab.gov
13 Short Pages well worth educating one's self as to how the Government conducts itself.
TARP/TALF were undisclosed Operations which maintained their Shadow Financing for years.
94% of Americans were against Commercial Bank Bailouts. Privatizing Gains while publicly
subsidizing losses was viewed with extreme displeasure.
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Over the past 14 Year, we see the outcome(s) - Interventions in Auctions by the Federal Reserve,
Yield Curve Control, the Outright Purchase of RMBS/MBS again (this began in 2004 in size as the
Federal Reserve's concerns over Real Estate began to mount).
The FED has become the buyer of Last Resort - currently @ $8.758 Trillion in Assets of which
$8.296 are "Securities" - this excludes "Shadow Operations" of FASB 56.
In less than 2 years, the Federal Reserves Balance Sheet rose from $4.212 Trillion to more than
Double that amount (NET of Shadow Operations)
I estimate Shadow Operation under FASB 56 to be in excess of $3.8 Trillion - this excludes the
Trillions missing from the Federal Coffers @ DOD, HUD and a great many other Agencies.
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Follow - On commentary will begin breaking down the Trends and discuss the potent outcomes
and timeframes for each Capital Stock.
There is a large amount of information to be discussed, requiring a methodical analysis of
all points on the outcome curve.
More to follow - HK
20 year plus bond etfSince mid July, The price of the 20 year plus Bonds has touched or tested the top orange line about 8 times and has retraced 61% more times than not. Bonds going as low as $148 would meet the 200 ema and would be a retracement of 61% of the previous low. The previous has been broken. Let's see where the next level of support is. If this falls, the Yields should rise. Normally, stocks fall "for the most part" when this happens. Let's see if this holds true!
TYXLooks like we are at a resistance level. I want to see if price will retrace the previous low on the daily fib anywhere between 38% - 61% before any bullish run.
Futures Levels | Look Ahead For the Week of Aug 8Nothing to see here except for an $80 drop in Gold Futures to start the week! So is the yellow metal flashing red for the markets? For now, the selling in GC1! stopped at the double bottoms from back in March/April, and as of the time of this posting GC is now down only about 1%. V-bottoms, V-bottoms, talk about head fakes, this market's got 'em!
10Yr Note - When the Levy BreaksThe important Context of "Pristine Collateral" as we have addressed repeatedly
is the Salient Issue - The Return of Capital.
The availability of T-Bills remains in an extremely short supply.
The Federal Reserve - $230 Billion at last disclosure.
The United States Treasury - $0.
T-Bill terms of 4, 8, 13, 26, and 52 weeks for issuance have seen the highest
percentage of issuance @ present — 91-day, 182-day and 364-day.
UST's schedule: www.treasury.gov
UST Direct, place your offer - www.treasurydirect.gov
* Please let us know how you fared, we did not.
Powell, by nature - points the finger and blame @ Sec. Of Treasury - Janet Yellen.
Yellen is suppressing "Pristine Collateral" according to Jerome Powell.
Is She though... If Banks are not lending... They need to be paid to hold the abundance of CASH.
But, wait a minute... Money Center Banks / Primary Broker Dealers do not want CASH. They prefer you
place your CASH in Money Market Funds.
Say what, Banks don't want CASH?
Yes, it is serious LIABILITY on their balance sheets at this point in time as their balance
sheets are DEBT Laden.
WTF Mate, what are you talkin bout?
J.Dude, seriously - you are delusional... This is simply a series compounding errors by ALGOs
trading in the Treasury market.
IF you believe this - please consider the following:
We pointed out this is or LTCM / Lehman moment on an exponential Scale more than a few times.
So let's clear the decks with respect as to why Mate.
When the lowest yielding Treasury is in Demand - exponential Demand.
WE have a problem, one in which everyone loses a Hand.
Credit simply gives way to Crisis - Crisis is all that results.
And we are all seeing this presently - Inflation is at the highest rate in REAL TERMS while Yields
on the Treasury Curve in Real Terms are at the Lowest on Record.
Convergence, it a nasty Bitch.
Want To Swipe My Futures Watchlist?There's a new TradingView feature that lets us share our watchlists. I'm partial to my sexy collection of futures symbols, so go ahead and grab it here: www.tradingview.com
Also, I've got a sell/short signal on the notes. RSI (upper 88), 3-period is a bit juiced.
And finally, the best resource for futures symbols and product descriptions is the CME site.
www.cmegroup.com
Indicator Playground: messing around with Volume Profile, etcBTC WEEKLY CHART:
So this video is just some notes and ideas based on using Volume Profile provided by TV.
I also go over some stuff on my indicators that I was looking at and comparing to price action.
Last BTC Death Cross NotesWhen was the last time BTCUSD experienced a death cross? - March 2020
What happened after in terms of price movement?
Initial sell off (-16%) in the days immediately following the death cross (algos? twitter?), then BTC rocketed 25% over the same span of days, before more than 2xing over the next 4.5 months...
What would the price be if we followed the same percentage moves?
Initial sell off: Approx Current BTC Price $40,000 - ($40,000 * 0.16) = $33,600
25% rebound: $33,600 * 1.25 = $42,000
Approx 110% move: $42,000 * 2.1 = $88,200
BTC to $88K by November???
6/14*On June 14 I decided to have smaller SL to lose less and be able to trade more.
*While I was able to win one out of 5 trades I still ended up loosing money.
*But it was mainly due to my impatience and the fact I didn't hold my winning trade.
5/31/2021On this trade I based off my entry on the 15 minute but due to me looking at the higher timeframes I messed up and put my SL higher at first risking 80 sum pips and due to that indecision I missed out on my entry in MetaTrader.
But after that I looked back at the 15 minute and noticed I could risk a lot less. I was originally risking 80 pips to get 160 but then changed it to risking 45 to make 100.
I need to be less indecisive.
Most if not all timeframes were telling me that it was going to go down but I messed up on not taking action fast enough making me miss my entry. At least I know I'm getting better because before I would've gotten in and risked more than I would've wanted to.
5/25/2021The moment I got up on 5/25 I wasn't sure where price was going to go due to the mount of consolidation and from that I should've known not to trade. At first I thought it was going to go up due to the amount of times it was respecting support but then I changed my mind due to it keep trying to go down and got out of my buy order early and put in a sell. I should've just gotten off after that because I still wasn't even sure if it was actually gonna go down on the 9:30 push.
$FANG - Diamondback Energy - Bull Flag & SEC Filings3/4/21
$FANG - Diamondback Energy - 9.16% Gainer
Catalysts:
Fundamentals (see details below 1,2):
-Company buyout
-Note buybacks
-Land and asset purchase
-Sector strong relative to market
Technicals (see chart):
-Bullish set up
-Great momentum over recent months.
Fundamentals con't.:
-8K's filing stated that they company would be buying out QEP, another energy and natural gas company as well as buying back senior notes due from both companies.
-Another 8K/A stated that the company "entered into a definitive purchase and sale agreement with Guidon Operating LLC to acquire approximately 32,500 net acres in the Northern Midland Basin and certain related oil and gas assets for $375 million in cash and 10.63 million shares of the Company’s common stock
-I'm going to be taking a look at some of the top daily gainers (may throw in some losers occasionally) of the day on their daily charts and posting them here throughout March. This is not advice. Just analyzing price action and patterns.
-I will try to vary the catalysts (analyst upgrades, earnings, clinical trial results, etc.) for the stock moving (if any) and the sector that the stocks are in.
-You'll notice I try to keep my charts as simple as possible. Black background and no grid. I will be focusing solely on price action, patterns, and support and resistance levels.
No moving averages, MACD, volume profiles, Bollinger bands, etc.
Please feel free to comment or leave suggestions. I am always looking to improve. Thanks.
US 10 year T-note; Clearly a Continued SHORT!Despite appearances US T-Notes & Bills will absolutely obliterate US equity returns in this investment cycle! - The math being inescapable, despite all the wishful thinking in the world.
Let's put an exact number on it; How does >+4% annually over US Equities sound?! (Yes, do check the math - as I'm sure of it!)
Incidentally the U$D is bottoming here and it is a Massive LONG, for now.
E.g. The decline in US T-Notes is likely to be slow and shallow.
NOTES: MACD- MOMENTUM INDICATORMoving Average Convergence Divergence
Type of Indicator: Lagging Indicator
-Data used in MACD is based on the historical price action of the stock. Since it is based on historical data, it must necessarily “lag” the price.
Consist of 3 components
1) MACD Line FORMULA: EMA 12-EMA 26
2) Signal Line FORMULA: 9-day EMA of MACD Line
3) MACD Histogram: FORMULA: MACD LINE - SIGNAL LINE
Functions
1) Momentum indicator for Bullish or Bearish
2) Helps in determining long or short position
3) Entry ideas
TIPS (Must not be used as stand-alone Indicator)
-BUY: When MACD Line Cross over the Signal Line + Reversal Candle/ Pattern
-SELL: When Signal Line Cross over MACD Line + Reversal Candle/ Pattern
-READY: When the MACD Histogram does not show big changes, ready for incoming big momentum either bullish or bearish
Idea sourced from:
-Investopedia
-YouTube Rayner Teo: MACD Indicator Secrets: 3 Powerful Strategies to Profit in Bull & Bear Markets
US 10 year T-Notes [Continued] SELL; Keep SHORTing them.Like the title says -> SHORT.
CBOT:ZN1!
Here is the original post;
What is happening in interest rates market? ExplainedI got a few questions about interest rates this week. Well, I don’t understand why people are waiting for some disaster in this market. Commercials are selling 10-year Nonets and buying 30 year Bonds. That means smart money expects that short-term rates are going to go down and long-term rates are going to stay where they are. This is a bullish yield curve development and a normal market. However, it doesn’t mean a huge rally is about to start in Bond market. It will take time. Short-term rally? – Well, possibly if on Monday we get above Friday’s high. But be realistic about your potential targets.
Bond Pong. Like Beer Pong With Less BloatingMost retail futures traders hang out in the stock indices, metals, or energy primarily. This makes sense as those markets move on a daily basis. But tonight, we'd like to make a case for looking at interest rates products, specifically the 30Y bond. As volatility picks up, the bonds haven't really kept pace and instead have stayed within defined ranges, making for a good case for some back-and-forth action.
For the past several weeks, a well defined channel in the 30Y Bond (ZBZ2020) has formed with a one point range between 176 and 177.
We're buyers at the bottom of the channel at 176 and sellers and the top at 177. It's a game of pong. What's constructive about this chart is that we have bumpers on either side of the channel in the form of a bid zone at 175 and an offer zone at 178. So we can scalp the channel and then look to add on a break or stop and wait for the level.
Our current position (CurPos) is flat as price is in the middle of the channel. We'll update this idea on our next entry.
Note: the ZN chart (10Y Note) looks similar and is 1/2 the size roughly on a per-tick-basis.
