Get started

T-notes

Bond Pong. Like Beer Pong With Less BloatingMost retail futures traders hang out in the stock indices, metals, or energy primarily. This makes sense as those markets move on a daily basis. But tonight, we'd like to make a case for looking at interest rates products, specifically the 30Y bond. As volatility picks up, the bonds haven't really kept pace and instead have stayed within defined ranges, making for a good case for some back-and-forth action. For the past several weeks, a well defined channel in the 30Y Bond (ZBZ2020) has formed with a one point range between 176 and 177. We're buyers at the bottom of the channel at 176 and sellers and the top at 177. It's a game of pong. What's constructive about this chart is that we have bumpers on either side of the channel in the form of a bid zone at 175 and an offer zone at 178. So we can scalp the channel and then look to add on a break or stop and wait for the level. Our current position (CurPos) is flat as price is in the middle of the channel. We'll update this idea on our next entry. Note: the ZN chart (10Y Note) looks similar and is 1/2 the size roughly on a per-tick-basis.
CBOT:ZBZ2020
by TDGonTView
RidetheMacro| US-10 Year Treasury Yield | 40 years Outlook📌 Treasury yields move higher ahead of Fed speeches. U.S. government debt prices fell on Friday morning as investors monitored rising cases of coronavirus and polls ahead of the U.S. election. the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above 📈 1% to trade at 0.6904%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond increased 📈 by about 78 basis points to trade at 1.4375%. Yields move inversely to prices. US-10 Year Treasury Yield - 40 Years in Review 📍 Many of still remember the collapse of the U.S. housing market in 2006 and the ensuing financial crisis that wreaked havoc on the U.S. and around the world. Financial crises are, unfortunately, quite common in history and often cause economic tsunamis in affected economies. ⬇️ Below I explain some Major Financial Crisis. 📍 1981 Volcker Fund Rate Increase Paul Volcker was Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. In 1980, the Volcker Shock raised the fed funds rate to its highest point in history to end double-digit inflation. That extreme and prolonged interest rate rise was called the Volcker Shock. It did end inflation 📍 The Credit Crisis of 1772 This crisis originated in London and quickly spread to the rest of Europe. In the mid-1760s the British 🇬🇧 Empire had accumulated an enormous amount of wealth through its colonial possessions and trade. This created an aura of over optimism and a period of rapid credit expansion by many British banks 🏦. The hype came to an abrupt end on June 8, 1772, when Alexander Fordyce—one of the partners of the British banking house Neal, James, Fordyce, and Down—fled to France to escape his debt repayments. The news quickly spread and triggered a banking panic in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿, as creditors began to form long lines in front of British banks to demand instant cash withdrawals. The ensuing crisis rapidly spread to Scotland, the Netherlands, other parts of Europe, and the British 🇬🇧 American colonies. Historians have claimed that the economic repercussions of this crisis were one of the major contributing factors to the Boston Tea Party protests and the American Revolution. 📍 The Great Depression of 1929–39 This was the worst financial and economic disaster of the 20th century. Many believe that the Great Depression was triggered by the Wall Street crash of 1929 and later exacerbated by the poor policy decisions of the U.S. government 🇺🇸. The Depression lasted almost 10 years and resulted in massive loss of income, record unemployment rates, and output loss, especially in industrialized nations. In the United States the unemployment rate hit almost 25 percent at the peak of the crisis in 1933. 📍 The OPEC Oil Price Shock of 1973 This crisis began when OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) member countries—primarily consisting of Arab nations—decided to retaliate against the United States in response to its sending arms supplies to Israel during the Fourth Arab–Israeli War. OPEC countries declared an oil embargo, abruptly halting oil exports to the United States and its allies. This caused major oil shortages and a severe spike in oil prices and led to an economic crisis in the U.S 🇺🇸. and many other developed countries. What was unique about the ensuing crisis was the simultaneous occurrence of very high inflation (triggered by the spike in energy prices) and economic stagnation (due to the economic crisis). As a result, economists named the era a period of “stagflation” (stagnation plus inflation), and it took several years for output to recover and inflation to fall to its pre crisis levels. 📍 The Asian Crisis of 1997 This crisis originated in Thailand in 1997 and quickly spread to the rest of East Asia and its trading partners. Speculative capital flows from developed countries to the East Asian economies of Thailand 🇹🇭, Indonesia 🇮🇩, Malaysia 🇲🇾, Singapore 🇸🇬, Hong Kong 🇭🇰, and South Korea 🇰🇷 (known then as the “Asian tigers”) had triggered an era of optimism that resulted in an overextension of credit and too much debt accumulation in those economies. In July 1997 the Thai government had to abandon its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar 💲 that it had maintained for so long, citing a lack of foreign currency resources. That started a wave of panic across Asian financial markets and quickly led to the widespread reversal of billions of dollars of foreign investment. As the panic unfurled in the markets and investors grew wary of possible bankruptcies of East Asian governments, fears of a worldwide financial meltdown began to spread. It took years for things to return to normal. The International Monetary Fund had to step in to create bailout packages for the most-affected economies to help those countries avoid default. 📍 The dotcom bubble The dotcom bubble, also known as the internet bubble, was a rapid rise in U.S. technology stock equity valuations fueled by investments in internet-based companies during the bull market in the late 1990s. During the dotcom bubble, the value of equity markets grew exponentially, with the technology-dominated Nasdaq index rising from under 1,000 to more than 5,000 between the years 1995 and 2000. In 2001 and through 2002 the bubble burst, with equities entering a bear market. The crash that followed saw the Nasdaq index, which had risen five-fold between 1995 and 2000, tumble from a peak of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000, to 1,139.90 on Oct 4, 2002, a 76.81% fall. By the end of 2001, most dotcom stocks had gone bust. Even the share prices of blue-chip technology stocks like Cisco, Intel and Oracle lost more than 80% of their value. It would take 15 years for the Nasdaq to regain its dotcom peak, which it did on April 23, 2015. 📍 The Financial Crisis of 2007–08 This sparked the Great Recession, the most-severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, and it wreaked havoc in financial markets around the world. Triggered by the collapse of the housing bubble in the U.S., the crisis resulted in the collapse of Lehman Brothers (one of the biggest investment banks 🏦in the world), brought many key financial institutions and businesses to the brink of collapse, and required government bailouts of unprecedented proportions. It took almost a decade for things to return to normal, wiping away millions of jobs and billions of dollars of income along the way.
TVC:US10YLong
by Ridethemacro
2
Notes on GNUS - Potential Bullish ScenarioGNUS is seeing a massive surge in volume recently, it's huge previous rise was even comparable to BTC. In that sense I was waiting for at least a full retracement from the high of 80% or greater, however, not too long ago we saw a similar surge of volume that we're seeing today. This surge failed to break into the mid $3 range. That is my current fear now, though CCI and RSI are surging much faster then that previous pump; I am adding this stock to my watchlist for now. Price point to watch: $3.10-3.25 If it passes this price point solidly, seriously consider buying.
G
by ericisom887
17
T-note scenarios for 27/05We moved away from previous 2-day balance (medium yellow box) at overnight and bounced back and forth previous demand zone at cash session, so it lost it's strenght. Removed it from the chart then included longer time frame value low in purple at 138'26. We can see that market has been rejecting value higher so far (tails and bottoming shown by red arrows) but as long as we stay between purple line and last big supply at 139'08 there's no definition of higher TF trend. Possible moves for next days are drawn in red and green. Scenario 1: We could play between these zones, for sure, as seen in blue line. it's a big range for day trading. There's a low volume area at the cumulative volume profile (right) just above previous day value area (smaller yellow box). If overnight keeps balancing a little higher than that and we get a extension lower at cash open, could be a risky long for continuation at 138'30'5/31. Target at 139'07/08. Scenario 2: 139'08 could be a short play if it gets the same bounce from overnight first. However I'm shifting to long if it breaks since it's LIS for initiative move lower Scenario 3: Market returns to previous day's value. Won't do anything. However, since market kept building volume towards purple line, this became my LIS for shifting from neutral to short. Will wait for it to break then sell pullbacks, target at 138'16, supply zone near bottom of macro value from couple months now. I got shaken out ZB as you can see from my other idea but I'm still long at 27'5 in ZN so I'm hoping we get at least scenario 1 or 2 so I can get out hahaha
CBOT:ZN1!
by caiobortoli
Losses. My past few GBPCHF trades have been in loss. What have I learned? 1) my risk reward is no longer garbage -I am limiting myself to trading only once per day with a max size of 0.02 a day. I am not allowed to place any more live trades after this. Meaning I have an actual strategy when I lose. Before I did not have a plan for losing and thus got myself into endless entries with 0.01 eventually leading to a deteriorating account. Now I am actually able to participate in the market for extended periods of time. 2) better understanding of key price levels -With the AstroFlip I can more easily identify price levels that are actually relevant to overall market movement. Before I would look first at historical price action and try to filter out the various price levels as I zoomed in from the Monthly eventually leading to the 30 min. This takes a lot of time and actually I think distracts the individual from the price levels that are CURRENTLY relevant to the currency pair. 3) more easily can intuit momentum direction -The AstroFlip also allows me to see the market in an alternative perspective, giving me insight on a potential movement in a structure that I simply could not see on the normal time frame. The lack of colors I must add does allow me to focus more on each individual candle because in the past I would glaze over candlesticks and wicks. What do I need to improve on? * Changing my mind----- important: sequential trade must be due to price hitting limit/sell order not due to manual entry -My last trade would have been a perfect entry had I been bullish and not bearish as my bias. In the past even when my bias was incorrect, the actual entry was not that good to begin with. Had I even the correct bias odds are I would have been stopped out regardless due to poor placement. My last trade would have actually been in draw down but a few pips had I the correct bias. I would like to add this does not mean "I wish I had the correct bias the first time". Rather, it simply means after getting stopped out I should have a limit or stop order with the opposite bias. The reason why this is now a valid solution unlike in the past is because no matter whether the trade is a buy or a sell, whatever direction price action moves will be tremendous. So even if the first trade hits my SL the next trade is guaranteed to be filled assuming 20-30 pip SL with a minimum of 1:2 risk reward ratio. This is because overall movement will average 70-120 pips. * Having Patience -My initial bias was bullish but I had changed my mind due to consolidating price level movement. One should always be patient during price consolidation. This is key for the sniper approach. I would not even had needed to change my mind had I been patient all along. One should only change their mind if the sequential trade is due to hitting a limit/sell order. If a trade hits SL on day x and you do not put in another trade until the next day, then you should be patient and see where the market is at instead of letting the past taint your current view. The past may indeed be relevant, but in the end of the day present moment price action and price levels are of primary focus.
by CryptoKarmaker
Updated Global Macro Dashboard Bonds and Notes BullishNew week, updated the dashboard. Swapped out Commodities and Emerging Markets for Dow Futures and Eurodollar futures. Bonds and Notes looking bullish here, the biggest surprise to everything and everyone would be a bond price rally (rates dropping). Everyone is expecting rate hikes, like nearly 100% Will generate a trade idea this week for bonds or notes. Once this trade (if) takes off, Eurodollar is how I am looking to express it.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by ChrisD_Macro
1