Tactics
USDCAD Head and shoulders pattern, potential shortI see nice Head&Shoulders pattern in USD/CAD with neckline at 1.09030. Moving averages curling down means that sellers keep preassure and control on price. Break below neckline which is our support could lead to further follow through. My intermidiate target is 1.08600 close to support zone.
Stop could be placed above 50 MA which follows price nicely.
Gold bounced of wedge support and showing some constructionGold bounced from lows where we have strong wedge support, built nice bull flag and resolved to upside. I see some buying signals here. My plan is to trade Long close to support lines at $1292.62 then $1290.65. Resistance at $1296.37, if buyers will manage to pull it through than we can expect some follow through to next resistance at $1302-05 area.
Good numbers from China Manufacturing PMI could boost demand for commodities.
LNKD showed relative strengthYeasterday US markets closed in red with QQQ -0.8%, SPY -0.9% and DIA -0.94%.
But this social network reversed from lows and closed near highs.
I think we are close to resolution of this wide range with upside bias because of that strength. Now we have higher low @ $143.45 and important intermidiate support @ $145 that was retested intraday.
Another action point is previous high of the day @ $149.50. If it will go above and hold we can see $153.34
NOW get long nowStock came from $26.33 to $71.80 for one year. Then agressively sold off from high. Pretty deep pullback which we can measure with fib levels - 61,8% is support - the last chance for bulls to prove that it is not reversal.
Yeasterday it went through lows but managed to get back and closed on highs. Showed us relative strength vs broad market (SPY, DIA and QQQ showed some breakout failure signals and closed around 1% down)
Despite it is below all key moving averages I have thoughts that money can rotate into underperforming stocks as many sectors are extended and markets are nervous so it is difficult to buy them.
Trade Plan:
Enter: now @ $47.82 or wait for additional confirmation brak up through consolidation resistance @ $49
Stop: below low of the day where sellers failed to hold below $46 then we have support from $44 to $45
Target: $53 swing high where 200 MA lies then we have $55
INTC wedge in strong uptrendMarket is choppy in 2014 with lack of continuation moves both sides. So, theme of the year is stock specifique approach. I am looking for strong stocks, buying pullbacks and support.
Intel is in strong uptrend since the beginning of 2013 year.
Now, stock is wedging. Support at $26.00 could be our stop.
Next resistance (target is $27.12 double top)
If it will break down $26 where 50 MA lies, then next buyable area could be 200MA and major trend line at $24.50-.75.
Gold waking up, other metals are positiveAll metals are green 1%-2% and Gold is not exception. Tension in East of Ukraine add fuel.
It held support and broke up wedge on short term time frames.
It reached down trend line - doesn't mean it is a sell, just DON'T be TRAPPED buying here.
I want to see small pullback/consolidation before continuation to next resistance at $1315.5.
Check my Idea on Gold in Link below.
CTXS laggard play, looking for move through 200MABig Picture:
US markets are strong, so I like long ideas. Despite, this stock looks weak I think if market break up failure scenario will come into play money will rotate from stocks that are on highs to underperforming stocks. And if market will continue showing strength momentum will cautch up this stock as well.
This technology company grew up from $20 since early 2009 and found top in 2011 at $88. From then it entered into big consolidation wedge with bottom close $50 (aorund half of that big igniting move) means that long term investors still control price action.
Short Term tech analysis:
Stock gapped up $59.46 on earnings on 24 of April, sold off from 200 MA but bounced off from shorter term moving averages with pivot low at $57.77.
Right now, it is in front of 200 MA building nice upper level base.
Trade Plan:
I like entry here at $60.37 with stop below $57.77. Break up and close above 200MA could lead to $62.25-$63.44 resistance zone, then we have gap down pivot point at $66.48.
Macro target is mid $70ish area - top of wedge.
Nikkei strong bounce from support, gap up Here I think it is ready for move higher vs gap pivot point at 14, 359.
First target could be descending trend line then swing high at 15, 164
AUD/USD navigating trend up, trade managementI mentioned some points where I make my adjustments. I mean how I manage my position with tiers. When it is trending or regaining power I add to my core position but when momentum is slowing down (price drops below short term moving averages) I lighten up.
Check out my recent idea "cup and handle" to figure out my thoughts.
GLW break up of wedge, strong up trend The S&P 500 just broke up consolidation that was theme of year 2014. Yeasterday, sectors that were recent laggards (high-beta, small-cap) showed relative strength.
Overall you have to take stock specifique approach and be willing to buy dips in strong stocks if you want to be successful in this tape.
This solar company attract my attention. It was wedging near highs and stays in strong uptrend since gap up on 23 of October 2013.
Yeasterday it broke up wedge with close on dead highs and triggered LONG ENTRY.
STOP below short term moving averages and wedge support @ $20.50.
Pivot high @ $21.74 is first TARGET.
If you want to buy pullback - $20.90-$21.10 could be our buyable area.
JCP waking up, laggard playThis retailer had couple dissapointing earnings before, but on the last it beat above consensus with EPS surprice 0.11 and gapped up with pivot support @ $7.00 that was confirmed and retested in the mid of April. And from the beginnig of May it is building nice upper-level base in front of resistance $9.30. Yeasterday, it broke up tight consolidation which triggered my entry. Will be great to see continuation through resistance then we have 200 MA at $10 which could be our first target.
Stop below moving averages $8.20ish
Stock was underperforming vs overall market because of weak fundamentals. We have earnings on 15 of May.
USD/JPY idea of the week On Daily chart pair entered into consolidation after move up on QE form BoJ.
On previous week it broke down bear flag and approached bigger support zone 101.196-.313, I am watching for potential break down of those lows, this week and i am going to SELL from resistance (breakdown area) 102.000-.150. Moving averages curling down.
Stop above 102.150,
Target 101.455 then 101.200 then 100.754
Gold found support and looks ready for move higherFrom the beginning of the year gold was in uptrend from $1179 to $1392 (around 20%) then sold off from highs but found some buying support $1268-$1278 (around 50%-61.8%).
ENTRY:
This pullback is still controlled and with this
1) doji candle bounced off from support zone it gives me entry with tier1 then
2) I will add if it will hold above moving averages ($1300) and
3) another point will be break up of trend line @ $1310
STOP:
1) below low of doji @ $1277.13
2) below $1268 support zone's low
TARGET:
1) 200 MA @ $1320
2) swing high @ $1330
CSCO inverse Head and Shoulders US markets (Dia, Spy) are trying to push to new highs. Money rotates to safe heaven, high dividend, large cap stocks (www.cnbc.com).
Cisco is component of both indexes DowJones and S&P. It built nice inverse Head and Shoulders pattern with neckline @ $23.60ish area. And we have series of three higher lows: first is bottom @ $20.22 then right shoulder with support @ 22.30ish and yeasterday it closed strong well off the lows, bounced from $22.50ish support of that nice upper-level base, regained 8 and 21 moving averages.
It would be healthy to see some construction above short term moving averages and continuation move to test neckline @ $23.60 with potential break up.
ENTER long here @ low $23.00ish with STOP below $22.43, first TARGET @23.60.
Macro target is $26.50-27.00, but till then i wll navigate that potential trend up with active approach.
SPY inverse Head and Shoulders, higher lowsUS markets covered morning losses and closed well on highs. Tech sector and small cap companies continue to diverge from S&P500 and major cap Dow Jones. It makes some traders nervous, and some say it's time for caution but we will measure price action with levels and wil continue to follow our process and rules.
Market has switching gears every day, so we should adapt quickly. Don't trade opinion, trade price action.
SPY built series of hiher lows, one at $181.51, then another one at $184.96 and yeasterday's low at $186.01. You have this upper range that looks like Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
Now in order to break out, the SPY need to get above and stay above $188.50-$189
CELG looks ready to make move lower This major cap biotech company borke its major support at $150.
Now it acts like resistance.
ENTERING with tier1 here with STOP above $150 and will ADD through $144 for a poential move to April's lows at $134-$136 (first TARGET)
IBB (biotech ETF) looks very weak.
BEN descending triangle, potential breakdownThis asset managment company was in strong uptrend since September 2013 from $45 and topped at $58.86.
That trend was broken with steep downside move. Stock found support at $50-51 area from one side and resistance zone at $54-55.
BEN was underperformer with $SPY just 2% off the highs. It means that if bounce scenario will come into play this range may resolve to downside. Recently, it have built Descending triangle.
Selling area is $52ish then $54
Target $51 then $50 and then mid $40ish area.
AAPL mapped out intraday opportunitiesApple (AAPL) was down yeasterday 1% . In the morning it went through prev high of the day and gave another $3 up move but reversed and get back below our pivot point at $601 with engulfing bear move right to $597.29. I started to trade it for Short on retest of failure point at $601 and when it confirmed resistance there from another side it built some consolidation support at $599.70ish. I mentioned that with comment on the link chart.
On the chart I mapped out selling and buying opportunities.
Apple closed on low of the day. And I expect to see some follow through below $594.43. Level of resistance at $597.29 could give another selling opportunity.
PETM resolved wedgeThis retailer broke down t-line that was intact since April 2013 with powerfull gap with pivot resistance at $70.51. It signaled about change of sentiment. THere was nice bounce play from that resistance on 4th of April and from there formed intermidiate downtrend form one side and higher lows from another (indecision, wedge).
Overall market is sitting on resistance, so it could be a good hedge play if you hold portfolio of long positions.
Today it resolved to the downside with powerful move. Moving averages are curling down and i expect previous support should act like resistance ($66.30-$67.00). Above there you can hide your STOP order.
TARGET is $63.63 then lows at $62.12.
This is reasonable position from risk/reward point of view and with high probability.
AAPL don't chase price, stay tactical It is difficult to buy here after $40 move from earning's gap but on intraday basis there we can still trade tactically keeping long in our mind.
Actually, it is one of the best stocks in this choppy, range-bound market because after earnings was released it had nice, powerfull 2 days continuation move then some rest, inside days which is healthy after such a big move with Red Dog Reversal (so we can put some tactical trades on the short side) and yeasterday we saw breakout and some trend plays.
Today we will see if it can continue through previous high of the day for another potential move higher. Support levels at $598.40 then $596.
Overall market closed well on highs but stays choppy with $SPY in front of resistance and $QQQs showed recent relative weakness.
AUD/USD cup&handle setupPair found bottom after downtrend and sentiment changed to the upside. Now it is flagging/consolidating. Need some catalyst to attract more active buyers and investors. Interest rate decision tomorrow could be one of them.
I will put feeler here with STOP below support zone at $0.92500 and will ADD more through $0.93000 on break up of
"handle". Potential TARGET could be $0.94500. Will measure price action with updates.
GOLD looks better for active traders after broke upGold had a nice action, acted well according to our plan from friday's morning note:
"Some buying interest resumes in Gold . It found some support at $1281.50ish, broke up intermidiate resistance and we can see $1290 soon. A break bigger down trend line could set it back in motion and attract more active buyers."
Now we have close above short term moving averages and down trend line. I am a buyer above 1304.5, next support at 1300. My target zone that may be reached this week is 1322 (200 Moving Average) and 1330 (previous swing high from where it bounced).
