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NZD slides, employment report nextThe New Zealand dollar has reversed directions today and recorded sharp losses. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6285, down 0.75% on the day. Risk appetite has fallen, with US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's controversial trip to Taiwan sending risk appetite lower. The New Zealand dollar has followed the Aussie, which has plunged around 1.5% today. As well, NZD/USD is under pressure from NZD/JPY, which is down 1% today due to safe-haven flows to the Japanese yen. New Zealand releases the employment report for Q2 on Wednesday. The labour market has been solid but unspectacular - in each of the last two quarters, Employment Change climbed by a negligible 0.1%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.2%. Employment Change is expected to rise to 0.4% and the unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower to 3.1%. With the markets expecting only a slight change in the second quarter, I don't expect the New Zealand dollar to react unless the forecasts are wide off the mark. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand continues to grapple with soaring inflation, which rose to 7.3% in Q2, up from 6.9% in Q1. The central bank has raised rates to 2.50%, but with inflation well above the inflation target of around 2%, rates will have to keep rising in order to reel in inflation. The RBNZ is also concerned about inflation expectations, which if left unchecked will strengthen inflation and exacerbate the Bank's efforts to curb inflation. Inflation Expectations accelerated for eight straight quarters and hit 3.29% in Q1, up from 3.27% and a 31-year high. We'll get a look at Inflation Expectations for Q2 next week, and if the current trend continues and the reading accelerates, it will put further pressure on the RBNZ to respond with a large rate hike at the August 17th meeting. NZD/USD is putting strong pressure on support at 0.6271. Below, there is support at 0.6213 There is resistance at 0.6350 and 0.6408
by OANDA
Man Who Tied Woman Up and Stole $3B in BTCUSD ArrestedA man who took $3 billion in bitcoin during a savage burglary has been captured — 7,000 miles from where the supposed wrongdoing occurred. The man is blamed for breaking into a home in California, binds up a lady with conduit tape, and moving millions from her record. The 31-year-old supposedly wore ski goggles, a hood and gloves during the bold assault. Investigators say he took steps to torment the casualty with a blade — and utilized an iPad staying nearby his neck to give guidelines. The man in this way escaped to Taiwan after the robbery in March, with American specialists finding him and making a trip there to keep him. At the hour of his capture, he was found with $18,000 in real money — close by a tablet, PC, crypto wallets and extra proof of his wrongdoings. He is currently back in San Francisco where he has to deal with penalties of first-degree private robbery, seizing for payment and criminal dangers — and stayed quiet when stood up to by correspondents at the air terminal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DEinvestment
What Will A Geopolitical Compromise Means For Markets?Henry Clay was a US Senator from Kentucky, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the US Secretary of State, and a Presidential candidate in the 1800s. His legacy and nickname were “The Great Compromiser” for his involvement with the Missouri Compromise, the Compromise Tariff of 1833, and the Compromise of 1850. As Henry Clay understood, any great compromise means that both sides at the negotiating table must come to an agreement that makes them uncomfortable or incomplete. The price of an asset is always the correct price A messy geopolitical landscape Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds Option two- A prolonged conflict Option three- The unthinkable In 2022, the geopolitical temperature has risen to the highest level since WW II. On February 4, Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin met at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The leaders signed a $117 billion trade agreement, but the watershed event was the “no-limits” cooperation understanding. Twenty days later, after the end of the Olympics, Russia invaded Ukraine, launching the first major war on European soil in over three-quarters of a century. Many analysts believe the Russian invasion sets the stage for Chinese reunification with Taiwan. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes. Volatility in markets across all asset classes has increased, and uncertainty is the market’s worst enemy. The war, sanctions, retaliation, and a Chinese-Russian alliance threatens the status quo over the previous decades. The price of an asset is always the correct price As we learned in early 2020 in nearly all asset classes, bear markets can take prices to levels that defy logic and rational and logical analysis. The same holds on the upside as price spikes can reach unthinkable heights. The moves to the upside or downside compel many market participants to sell what they believe are tops or buy when they think the market cannot go any lower. Picking tops or bottoms is more about ego than making money, as the effort contradicts to prevailing trends. Picking a top or a bottom is a statement that the current price is too high or too low, which is always a mistake. Market participants can be wrong, but markets are never wrong. The price of any asset is always the right price because it is the level where buyers and sellers agree on a value in a transparent marketplace. Declaring a market top or bottom is a contrarian statement as it goes against the prevailing trend. A messy geopolitical landscape Two years ago, the world faced a common enemy as COVID-19 ignored borders, race, religion, political ideology, and all of the other factors that separate countries and people. In February and March 2022, the world faces new and daunting challenges: The Chinese and Russian leaders shook hands on a “no-limits” alliance. Russia invaded Ukraine, starting the first major war in Europe since World War II. Ukraine continues to put up fierce resistance. The US, NATO allies in Europe and allies worldwide slapped sanctions on Russia. Russia retaliated with export bans and other measures. North Korea test-fired ICBM missiles. Iran fired missiles near the US embassy in Iraq. Russian missiles came within miles of the Polish border. An attack on Poland triggers article five of NATO’s charter- An attack on one member is an attack on all. China and Russia stand on opposite sides of the conflict from the US and Europe. China plans to reunify with Taiwan against their will. On the US domestic scene, the US remains divided along political lines with mid-term elections in November. The central bank liquidity and government stimulus that stabilized the economy during the pandemic ignited an inflationary fuse before the geopolitical landscape deteriorated. The war in Ukraine only exacerbates price increases as Russia is a leading world producer of raw materials. Europe’s breadbasket in Ukraine and Russia is now a mine and battlefield at the start of the 2022 crop year. Russia and Ukraine typically supply one-third of the world’s wheat and other crops. They are also leading fertilizer exporters, causing problems in other worldwide growing regions. In 2022, the war will lead to rising prices, falling supplies, and the potential for famine and civil uprisings. Historically, food shortages have caused many revolutions. The 2010 Arab Spring that began as food riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Biden administration pledged to address climate change by supporting alternative and renewable fuels and inhibiting the production and consumption of fossil fuels. US production declined in 2021. After decades of working to achieve energy independence from the Middle East, US policy handed the pricing power to the international oil cartel. Since 2016, Russia has had an increasing role in OPEC’s production policy. In 2022, the cartel does not move unless Moscow agrees to cooperate. Oil prices were already rising when Russia invaded Ukraine, and they moved over $100 per barrel after the attack. Meanwhile, other fossil fuels have moved higher. Coal traded to a new all-time peak. US natural gas rose to a multi-year high, and European and Asia gas prices rose to record levels. Rising energy prices fueled inflation, and the war has poured fuel on an already burning inflationary fire. The war in Ukraine is less than one month old, and the human toll is rising. Tensions are at the highest level in decades. Markets are nervous, and the developments on the geopolitical over the coming days and weeks will dictate the direction of markets across all asset classes. I see three potential outcomes. Option one- A Great Compromise- High Odds In the current standoff, neither side wants to give an inch. The Russian leader faces disgrace or worse if he loses to an inferior military but impassioned Ukrainian population, many of who would choose death over capitulation. The US and Europe do not want to appease Russia like the UK’s Nevil Chamberlain appeased Hitler in the 1930s. China may support Russia, but the world’s second-leading economy has close economic ties with the US and Europe. A Henry Clay-inspired great compromiser could emerge and come up with a solution where Russia, China, the US, Europe, and the rest of the world walk away from the negotiating table unhappy but with a workable solution. I believe, and it is more than a bit of wishful thinking, that this is the high odds result of the current geopolitical mess, and the result will go down in history as the great compromise of 2022. A great compromise would likely lead to a significant stock market rally and a commodity correction. Option two- A prolonged conflict A prolonged conflict where Russians fight a long and bloody war against Ukrainian forces will devastate the world economy and peace. Russia may capture territory, but it is clear President Putin will never capture the souls of the Ukrainian masses. The Russian brutality over the past weeks will never be forgotten. President Putin did not count on the passionate resistance Russian troops encountered across Ukraine. The longer the battle and the more brutal the weapons, the greater the price for Russians controlling the territory over the coming years. Millions of refugees have left the country, but that leaves over 40 million Ukrainians; most now consider Russians their mortal enemy. A long battle will weaken the Russian military and the Russian leader abroad. A prolonged conflict will cause sanctions to collapse Russia’s economy, causing domestic problems for President Putin and his government. Moreover, skirmishes are likely to break out worldwide. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, North Korea and Iran flexed their military muscles. With Europe and the US focused on Ukraine, China could use the opportunity to seize Taiwan. A prolonged conflict would weigh on US stocks and likely lift commodity prices to higher highs. Option three- The unthinkable The final option is the nuclear one, which is low odds, but a highly frightening scenario. If Russian aggression spreads across the Ukraine border into Poland or any NATO member country, it will trigger Article five that states an attack on one is an attack on all. The US and Russia have the most nuclear weapons, which increases the potential of MAD or mutually assured destruction. In this scenario, it does not matter how markets react as the world would face a disastrous situation. I believe that a great compromise is on the horizon, which would cause markets to stabilize. However, the extent of the compromise is critical as it must address the current situation in Ukraine and Taiwan and threats from North Korea and Iran. Anything short of a comprehensive understanding between the world’s powers will cause years of rising tension and threats to the nearly eight billion people that inhabit our planet. Where is Henry Clay when the world needs him? Expect the volatility in markets to continue. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPX
by Andy_Hecht
2
#TSM mid term AnalysisAs we all know TSM has amazing fundamentals, incredible advantages in their business model and benefitial political terms inside their country, right now their competitors are not close enough to compete with them at full scale. So we are not going to argue about value for this company. Not all day we have infront of us a company that represents value for half of the world chips manufacturer market. since the July spike the price of #TSM has been trading at a side chanel from 108 usd to 125 usd, in case of a breaking of the 125 resistance at the edge of the accumulation channel, we can expect the price to travel smoothly to a) level target and so on, but in case of breaking the 108 support level we may see bears will take control to the oranges mark supports. As expected due the economic enviroment right now, lets expect a lot of volatility but thats ok, dont forget you are sitting on a value stock, the stop loss is stretched due volatility.
NYSE:TSM
by dondanicorleoni
The Crisis every investor is waiting for. What you gonna do? #2What to do in the next 6-9 months with existing risk factors? Educate yourself to come to a conclusion. Do not blindly follow "experts". In the current situation we are facing several risks to the stock market. I listened to a lot of so called experts. They tell you what sounds great, what you want to hear. Most of them get paid for being on the show even it is a ZOOM call without pants. They talk anything and get paid. Do they do any research or do they collect opinions off FB and Twatter? My experience is stop listening to background noise. Improve your own skills and do research and LEARN economics and financials. The Market commentary will always be totally diametric. As a seller of an asset in a trade and the buyer of the same asset have both diametric expectations of the market. So find your own. There are a few good YouTuber out there I listen regularly in but even though I like them and they put positive thoughts into my head do not trade what they say. You can take the idea but you MUST do your own research. It is said that any stock pick of an "expert" is as got as letting a chimpanzee chose any trades. The outcome for the Chimps is better by a bit. If you killed your account in the process come back and let me know how it worked out. Or after you lost your first account of $20,000.00 and you got up again, we can talk about your baptizing. All good traders lost a huge amount of money before they made it right. Having said this I can only encourage people to get financially literate. Brokers and charlatan educators rigging against you. They make huge money and you lose 90% of the time 90% of your money within 90 days. Please be advised, I am not a financial adviser. I am not recommending any trades. I might be just a crazy guy with a wild brain. If you want to see the picture to the story, you have to go to hedgingstocks.blogspot dot com/2021/08/what-to-do-in-next-6-9-months-with.html. As a content provider I should not pay for images. I do not take money either. I listed the risk factors already. This is only my personal opinion. What factors could that be. Inflation Wage Inflation Money Supply Money circulation Housing bubble The Warren Buffet indicator China Regulations China Currency Manipulation China Delta Variance of Covid the huge wild card! WE MUST ADD WAR WITH CHINA to the equation, Taiwan And I wrote about a few of them. Inflation Wage Inflation Money Supply Money Circulation I made a research on the housing market and if we are in a bubble that is about to burst. I do not think so for the near future. But this is a very long analysis with lot of graphs that made me conclude that the housing bubble will NOT be the IED, not the roadside bomb that will bring the market down. My biggest candidates for now are The China Delta Variance of Red Covid 19 the huge wild card! Chinas potential attack on Taiwan. Inflation and hence the start of tapering by the Feds. For those reasons without explaining them any further I want to explain my perspective and the focus of my trades for the next six month. I concluded that 1. The down side risk is growing and buying dips is getting too risky. I am closing my long positions slowly. 2. Tapering might start October and being announced in September during the FOMC Two-day meeting in September 21-22. 3. This will take money out of the stock market and put it into the Bond Market. It will increase YIELDS and decrease Bond Prices. 4. The FOMC said that they will start tapering with both, reducing the artificial demand for bonds and MBS. 5. MBS, Mortgage Backed Securities are basically mortgages of smaller banks that their head quarters put together in a DEBT security and sold them to the FEDs. This is a 12 billion Dolla business per month increasing the debt burden of future generations. The banks convey the default risk to the Feds /tax payers and some interest from the mortgages. The original bank keeps a portion but very little risk. If the Feds stop buying those MBS they will give the risk back to the local banks and they will have to tighten their lending rules to reduce the increased risk of defaulting. Also this will reduce revenue with the loss of selling those MBS. Financial sector will cool down during tapering. 6. The Bond market will cool down too. Yields will rise. The Feds will reduce buying Bonds and hence the prices will fall. Since the prices of these assets are falling their yield (state guaranteed interest rate) will increase. When the yield of an assets stays the same but you pay less than face value of that asset then your yield goes up. The yield /(interest) is NOT bond to the selling price of that asset but to the face value printed on that NOTE or BOND. Thats why it is said when the Feds keeps buying bonds it keeps the prices artificially high, they are manipulated, to keep the yield down. And of course the smart money goes into the stock market. There is much more to make. Got it? (Images are available on my other blog) Here is the 10 years Bond yield 7. The Stock Market will crash with a conflict with China. Foreign countries will take their money out of China stocks and the Asia region and flee to the US Dollar buying bonds. This bond buying might counter the yield a little. But all transactions will be conducted in USD. A conflict with China will shock the Asian markets. 8. An conflict with China will force the Feds to print more money to finance war efforts, especially if they continue over a longer period of time. It will put additional pressure on inflation during and after the war. A smaller regional conflict will not have a huge impact, as we experienced already. See image. 9. Either way, with tapering the US Dollar will rise due to the above mentioned traditional reaction. 10. With an increase of Interest rates, next year as the rumors are, the banking sector will do better. increased interest rates always benefit the banks. 11. A war over Taiwan and may be an attack on Israel by Iran or vis versa, will bring the oil and all commodity prices up big time. this will have a positive impact on oil prices and a negative impact on air travel, hotels and cruisers. 12. A review of 20 major geopolitical events dating all the way back to World War II showed stocks had fully recovered losses within an average of 47 trading days (10 weeks) after an average maximum drawdown of 5%, according to a CFRA study. (images not possible here) An attack on Taiwan I consider more like of the level of the Iraq invasion or Pearl Harbor. It will send shockwaves through the market and reorganize priorities. China might be out of the window. It will have a huge impact. 12. In the case of a conflict with China, not small Iran or their proxies, the US Dollar will gain in value. Why is that? Shipping routs will be interrupted. Heavily needed Commodity Prices will rise. Oil prices will rise and so do chemical products. The US dollar would rise because it is the reserve currency of the world, and a hedge against uncertainty. Almost all petrochemical contracts as well as oil and other commodities are denominated in the US dollar. The sole exception to this rule is China. A rising Dollar will be anti inflationary. 13. Contradicting this approach will be the wild card of the China Delta Covid. If there are more shut downs coming, more port closures and transportation chain bottle necks, inflation in the PPI and later in the CPI will increase. But the cocaine operation of the Feds (buying MBS and printing money) will continue and tapering will not start. Keep doing what we are doing, buy the dips. Then inflation will start to increase the pace, rate of inflation will rise. Conclusion We have four levels. and each of them requires different actions 1. Inflation and hence the start of tapering by the Feds. 2. Cooling of the Money Velocity, M2V, and the increase of interest rates. 3. The Delta Variance, the huge wild card! 4. Chinas attack on Taiwan. 1. Inflation and hence the start of tapering by the Feds. Go long USD, buy UUP ETF, US-Dollar ETF Go Short AUD, Australia has a huge lockdown in place and its economy also is 20% depending on China. Shorting the Aussie looks good to me. Find an Currency ETF you can trust, USD / AUD and go long, not the other way around. Sell Bear Call Credit Spreads since the markets will rise slower and the strike might not be triggered. I chose Short Call 3 Standard Deviation OTM on the QQQ and SPY then Long Call for hedging $10 above that price. Maybe with tapering you could sell at 2nd standard deviation. I am not sure about this yet. 2. Cooling of the Money Velocity, M2V, and the increase of interest rates. Go long USD, buy UUP ETF, US-Dollar ETF, rising interest rates are good for the USD. Go Short AUD, Australia has a huge lockdown in place and its economy also is 20% depending on China. Shorting the Aussie looks good to me Sell Call Bear Credit Spreads since the markets (QQQ, SPY, IWM) will rise slower and the strike might not be triggered. I chose Short Call 2 Standard Deviation OTM on the QQQ and SPY then Long Call for hedging $10 above that price. Buy Diagonal Put Debit Spreads. Go long PUT 1 standard Deviation OTM, 3 months DTE and to lower costs with buying the same PUT BUT with a shorter DTE (maybe 1 month) to cover costs, assuming that the strike will not be hit until in one month. Or Sell Calendar Spread 1 standard Deviation OTM. 3. The Delta Variance, the huge wild card! If lockdowns are announced and the economic recovery seems to slow, stagflation, the Feds money will continue to flow. Inflation will rise and the Stock Market will rise. I will do the same as above but move my strikes for the credit spreads to the third Standard Deviation and reduce DTE from 45 days to 30. Additionally to what is said you can do the following. Maybe the better choice in short term. Buy a Call Diagonal Spreads with two different Strikes and Expiration Dates. Buy Call with a DTE, maybe one month. Buy it OTM, one StandDev. Sell a shorter term Call, maybe two weeks, further OTM, maybe 5$ for the QQQ to reduce costs. You expect the short position to expire worthless at date of Expiration and the long Call still continues in the money, ITM, for the next two weeks. Buy Calendar Spreads with the same strike but two different Expiration Dates, maybe one month and 14 days. Buy it OTM with one month DTE, Sell a shorter term Call further OTM, same strike to reduce costs. You expect the short position to expire worthless at date of Expiration and the long Call still continues since the strike price is not yet hit. So be careful choosing the Strike! 4. Chinas attack on Taiwan Go long Oil ETF, COG, CABOT OIL & GAS CORP; NRT, NORTH EUROPEAN OIL ROYALTY TRUST; Refining companies (Lists not possible to post here) Integrated Oil (Lists not possible to post here) Sell shares in Chinese ETFs or companies, they will instantly lose value. Be conscious about the spread. Be careful not to buy options, they might not be respected. You can google them. Go large caps. (Lists not possible to post here) Buy USD. It is said USD will rise and so inflation. A war with China there will be no doubt that they will pump money into the system. Inflation will rise and uncertainty of foreign countries will seek save harbor in the USD How to set up a Bear Call Spread will follow . I just cannot put this all into one article. At least here is a guide line. Technicals are secondary but important. Now we could look at the charts and look how to set up the trade since we know what to look for and we will listen to the news and watch the indicators to confirm our assumptions. Be careful at those times. SPY, S&P500 market index ETF DIA, Dow Jones Market Index, ETF IMW, Small Cap Russel 2000, ETF QQQ, NASDAQ, ETF VIX, Volatility Index, reacts inverse to S&P500 AUM, AUD in USD Index UUP, USD, ETF AAPL Stocks as leading indicator for QQQ and SPY
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Option_Crusader
TSM breakout + measured move The chart shows a descending triangle, with a breakout. The breakout yesterday and today, have been on strong intraday volume. A measured move can be made by adding the height from the double bottom (purple circles), to the area of the breakout. Using the green arrows to represent the potential move, which takes us to $152 approximately. Which is coincident with the extended move of the fibonacci retracement lines at 61.8%. $135 and $142 are potential resistance zones, where we could see some profit taking.
NYSE:TSMLong
by dorfmanmaster
8
$TSM descending triangle - what do you think? Up or down?Beautiful channel formation here but the time has come where descending triangle is forming, these are usually bearish. TSM is having problems with production due to water shortage, $MU ceo yesterday talked about how NAND demand is not necessarily as high as the market thinks. Different industry, but is this company really worth 3x pre-covid? I lean towards bullish as the 200ma approaches but the technicals on paper say otherwise.
NYSE:TSM
by AlphaJi
1
Suez Canal FiascoWe've all heard about the big ass ship stuck in Egypt's Suez Canal last week. On Tuesday morning (3/23) the 'Ever-Given' vessel, leased by Taiwanese Company EVERGREEN; was caught up in a 'Darude-like' sandstorm causing over 10 billion in damages so far and unforetold shipping delays. The Suez accounts for 30% of imports coming into Europe from Asia. There are currently 150+ container ships caught in this costly traffic jam, where the estimated costs of waiting are upwards of $400Million/hour according to various news sources. Looking for ways to capitalize on News events? If you have access to Asian markets; take some shorts on lease owner EVERGREEN 2603. They had positive reported earning on Monday just one day before the shitstorm and there's a definite shift in momentum back to 30-lvl support. Also consider short positions in the vessel owner; Japanese Shoei Kisen KK. UK P&I Club Insurance is meant to cover pollution and injury, not cover hundreds of lawsuits for this costly conundrum.. Let's get it! static01.nyt.com
TWSE:2603Short
by BonaFide111
1
Taiwan's export orders performed well in FebruaryTaiwan's export order totaled US$42.59 billion in February, with an YOY increase of 48.5%. The export order is estimated to grow even more by US$54.5 ~ US$56 billion in March, according to the ministry. MM analysis ICT ( +88.4% ), electronic products ( +52.4% ) and optical equipment industries ( +59.4% ) became the main driving force, drove up huge amount of demand. Export regions mainly comes from the US ( +50.2% ), China & Hong Kong ( +48.6% ), and Europe ( +73.4% ), implying strong inventory replenishment demand by companies and overall a strong economic rebounds!
by MacroMicro_Global
Photronic Future Projection and DD over the coming ~3 monthsI project an increase in the stock price of NASDAQ:PLAB due to: Increase in revenue since the last quarter. Commitment to Chinese and Taiwanese production plants that have a solid backing of governmental support. New technologies within the industry combined with a solid demand that wont decrease and the mono-product nature of Photronic. Demand for smartphones and similar products have increased in the last quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Internally the company believes that the industry-wide stocks is oversold, as told in their 'Photronics Q1 - FY21 Earnings' web-conference available on their website. The lack of supply of their product market-wide has made possible for the first time in 35 years an increase in main-stream pricing of their product, as shared in the same conference at the 40 minute mark. Available on the website is also two videos, hosted on YouTube, discussing two of their most recent production plants in China. But the low view-count (500) tells me they are videos made for investment meetings and similar meetings and therefore the company itself are making big steps to increase their production and gain governmental and private support. As far as indicators go: The MACD is below 0 and looks to move over the signal line and over the 0 line again. The Ichimoku cloud has a red cloud within the near future but I project that it will quickly close and return to a green cloud. The RSI is below the mid line and the current situation is reflected in past movements of the RSI. As far as fundamentals go: The support and resistance of the stock has had incremental increases since the start of the quarter. The revenue movement compared to last years Q1 is only -2%, which is a market situation that doesn't reflect most other industries as many are still recovering from the effects of Covid-19. As far as the only negative I can find in this DD is that the CEO of the company sold a fifth of his personal stocks for an undervalued price of around 11$ at the turn of the year. It could be personal reasons or a need for more capital in the company could have necessitated this sell of, but in any case its the only point I cannot fully explain or reason, but that may also be down to a lack of experience on my own part. If you have any thoughts on this please share. Personally, I have an alert set for the crossing of the Ichimoku Conversion line up and over the Ichimoku Base Line to indicate a value increase that could projectically rise and stay risen at least temporarily over the next month or two. Thank you, and please, if you have any other thoughts or counter-points make sure to share them so I may discuss this symbol with you.
NASDAQ:PLABLong
by Kabeldon
VWO - Emerging Market Macro Analysis The macro data from this month's Markit PMI's is sending a bit of mixing signals from the countries that VWO has the most exposure to, but I am still optimistic as to the near-future performance of the emerging markets. Before going into the macro analysis, whats the market allocation of this ETF. The 80% market allocation is the following: - China -> 42.5% - Taiwan -> 16.5% - India -> 11% - Brazil -> 5.9% - South Africa -> 4.1% After a quick look at the list above, we can see that China and Taiwan are almost 50% of the market allocation, so it is important to follow their situation closer. China Macro Overview China PMI's are sending mixed signals regarding the growth of Chianese economy, with a possible hint as to slow down in the next few months. The manufacturing report is showing a slow down in growth in the production and new orders. The new export orders are declining again below the 50 level, which indicates a possibility of contraction, there is also an indication of rising costs. And that's likely to reflect in the results of Q2, or even in the Q3. Taiwan Macro Overview In comparison to Chinese PMI's, Taiwanese reports are much more optimistic, with strong growth in the last months. January Manufacturing PMI is reporting growth in Output and New Orders, which are leading indicators in themselves. Employment has increased substantially, which is a good indicator as to the health of the Taiwanese economy in the current situation. In my opinion, the Taiwanese companies will lead the performance in the VWO for the next few months. Indian Macro overview India is another country reporting growth in January if we keep in mind the allocation size in this country in this ETF, it gives an optimistic outlook for its performance. New Orders, Exports and Outputs are rising for another consecutive month. The employment situation is still contracting but at lower levels than before. That may be an indication of possible employment growth soon. The overall outlook for the Indian economy is positive and in conjunction with positive data from Taiwan, that's good news for the emerging markets. Additional Macro overview Brazil, South Africa are other countries in the top 5 of the allocations for this ETF. Their allocation size is reasonably smaller than the countries above so I won't go into much detail. Brazil situation is not very bright, as to the information provided by PMI reports, even that manufacturing showed slight improvements, the services are contracting again. The situation in South Africa seems to expand but at a slow pace, there are still many concerns as the effects of the pandemic on the overall economy. Final Opinion. As we can see from the macro overview of the countries, which are the key components of the market allocation of this ETF, the outlook is mostly positive. Some may be concerned by the mixed data from the Chinese PMIs since China is the biggest player in this ETF, it may affect the performance. However, there is a positive outlook for Taiwan and India. I believe they will compensate for the possible slow down in China, and it'll drive the EM performance for the next few months. Sources: - Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI - Caixin China General Services PMI - IHS Markit Taiwan Manufacturing PMI - IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI - IHS Markit India Services PMI - IHS Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI - IHS Markit Brazil Services PMI - IHS Markit South Africa PMI
AMEX:VWOLong
by jaymastero
TSMC Breakout: Powering the AI MegatrendAfter consolidating for 2 months, this semiconductor powerhouse finally broke out to new all-time-highs from its rectangle yesterday. With most tech stocks still recovering from the correction of the last 2 weeks, such a move signals strong underlying momentum. TSMC counts the world’s biggest tech companies as its customers - Apple, Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, etc - and arguably underpins much of the world’s tech boom and AI megatrend. Part of the fuel for the breakout came from Apple’s new iPad Air announcement yesterday, utilizing their latest A14 Bionic, the first consumer chipset to run on TSMC’s most advanced mass production 5nm process. This is one stock you’ll want to own for the long haul.
NYSE:TSMLong
by GaryChew_CFTe
TAIWAN TWIXUSD - Different analyses, Different targets.The chart above displays a clear breakout to the upside from a 8 month long symmetrical triangle pattern. The question now is where is this going? what could be a potential target? Every time I open this chart blank I see something new. Based on different types of analyses below are 3 possible targets. Option 1: Inverse Head and Shoulders Option 2: Fibonacci Extension Option 3: Uptrend Channel (5 year long) No doubt targets for option 1 and 2 could be reached in a few years however given how extended the current move looks my immediate area of focus would be the top of option 3's uptrend channel. A pull back from there to the 420 region and a subsequent bounce from that area would seem like a reasonable scenario. This analysis is for my own reference. This is not trading or financial advice.
T
by armandoizquierdo
TAIEX: Structured long term buy opportunity on Taiwan stocks.The Taiwan stock market is trading on a very standard long term 1M Channel Up which is currently neutral close to its median (RSI = 50.364). We see a very reliable buy signal pattern. Each Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) has a distance of roughly 950 days from the Death Cross (opposite). The Death Cross comes to signal the end (or approaching) of the cycle's bottom. Based on that sequence we have calculated that to be around the end of July/ August 2019. We will be going long on TAIEX then with TP = 11,100 (1W Resistance). ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
INDEX:TAIEXLong
by InvestingScope