AFKS 5M Daytrade Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade
- short impulse
+ extra volume T1
+ weak approach
+ volumed 2Sp+
+ weak test
+ first buying bar close entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
1 to 2 R/R take profit
1H CounterTrend
"- short impulse
+ biggest volume T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume maniulation
- one bar reversal"
1D Trend
"+ long impulse
+ 1/2 weak correction
+ SOS level
+ support level
+ reverse volume distribution
+ volumed manipulation"
1M Trend
"+ long impulse
- below 1/2 correction
+ expanding T2 level
+ support level
+ support level
+ volumed manipulation"
1Y Countertrend
"- short impulse
- neutral zone"
Takeprofittrader
Morning Ideas September 6, 2022Good morning traders!
I'm back at the screens after taking most of the week off last week for an extended Labor Day holiday.
To me, it looks like the market is now caught up in the lower distribution, and when you add the low volume of the overnight session, I think we are in for a choppy kind of sideways day.
My key areas are discussed on the chart. 3850 below and 4075 above. I feel like those are the extremes of this distribution.
Morning Ideas August 29, 2022Good morning traders...
Powell was very direct on Friday at Jackson Hole. He basically said that the market was in for some "pain" because the FED was ready to slow down the economy, in order to achieve some price stability (tame inflation).
The market was quiet overnight, but I believe the next test is 3850 below.
Morning Ideas August 26, 2022Good morning traders...
I don't really know what to make of this if I'm honest. I think the 5 minute video is worth a watch because it would be too nuanced to type it all out in a write up.
I don't like chasing breakouts, especially with resistance (or support) right above (or below), so I'm going to be neutral here.
One thing to remember that I didn't touch on in the video is that today is day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium, and also Powell (FED chair) is speaking today. This can cause more whippy action, like we saw yesterday during day 1 of the Symposium.
I'm going to tread lightly here.
Morning Ideas August 25, 2022Good morning traders...
We've now tested 4120 a few times. Mr. Market has found buyers in that area, as expected. Now we've bounced to the top of value, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us take another run at 4120.
If 4120 doesn't hold, again, I expect the market to eventually tag 3850.
Morning Ideas August 22, 2022Good morning traders,
We were unable to hold above 4250 on Friday, and so here we are, close to 4170.
I do believe we have quite a bit of support between here and 4120, but I think a break of 4120 will put 3850 back in the crosshairs.
Today, I'm looking for an initial push down to 4170, and that to be bought, for atleast a temporary (1-2 day) bounce.
Morning Ideas August 19, 2022Good morning traders,
Right back at 4250 for what looks to be an interesting open. Buyers are going to want to hold this area, but the sellers have owned the overnight session.
A break below 4250, and I think we see 4170 next. A market that pushes higher off the open, and holds 4250, will likely see 4300 ish area next.
I'm still biased to the long side until 4250 has a clean break.
Morning Ideas August 17, 2022Good morning traders,
Today is FOMC minutes day. They come out at 2pm. As I say in the video, it's a bit concerning that the market has fallen overnight. Usually the mornings of FOMC are more "muted" kind of trading.
I give some levels in the video that I think are important for today. As a trader with a long bias, I need the market to hold onto 4250. 4180 is critical, and although it seems far away, I mention the level because it can absolutely get there today if the news is bad.
I explain more in the video, I think it's worth a watch.
Morning Ideas August 12, 2022Good morning Traders...
We FINALLY broke 4180, and reached the 4250 area! It's been the move we had been looking for last week and this week.
Now the market will likely pull back and try to push again through 4250 and HOLD. If we can do that, I would imagine we see 4500 eventually (not immediately). This move is going to take some time because the market has to fight through a lot of volume to get there.
I'd keep my eye on 4180-4170 area below. If we pull back you'd really like to see the market hold onto that area. If we cannot, I think it's a high probability we start to push lower.
For now, all is good. I'd expect the market to be in pullback/neutral mode today as it's Friday and the market is stretched a bit (with resistance above)
Morning Ideas August 10, 2022Good morning Traders,
CPI numbers came out this morning and pushed the market abo ve the 4180 area that we have had our eyes on for most of the last two weeks.
4170-4180 becomes a key area for the open, as I'd like to see the market supported there by the buyers. If not, we are likely to see 4120, and probably pretty quick.
Morning Ideas August 9, 2022Good morning traders
CPI numbers come out tomorrow, and it seems clear after yesterday that the market just does not want to break the 4180 area until we see what happens with the numbers tomorrow.
I would imagine today is a neutral day, where we just churn in the same area. CPI has become such a big number because of the inflation fears and the subsequent reactions by the FED (interest rates)
Morning Ideas August 5, 2022Good morning traders,
NFP numbers came in hot, adding 528,000 jobs vs 250,000 expected. The market may have been expecting more because we sold off 40 points in the SP500 immediately.
The selling brings us back into the thick area around 4120. I am looking at 4160 as the scene of the crime, and the market needs to get through 4180 before I think it's reasonable to see a squeeze towards 4250.
Below, I think 4060 is key if we want to see the market stay in this dense upper area. If we fall below 4060, I think we start to attack the lower prices in the profile. This would mean we'd see prices well below 4000.
Your (educated) guess is as good as mine, but look for those areas to be key today.
Morning Ideas August 4, 2022Good morning traders...
The market trended yesterday, right to the top of the volume from this area. To me, it looks like the volume is between 4160 and 4060, leaving above 100 points of range in the "thick area"
Tomorrow is Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) so I don't think there is a high probability that we leave this area today. I'd warn against chasing trends, for that reason.
Morning Ideas August 3, 2022Good morning traders,
Market continues to be tangled up here. I would look for a move higher, but probably a fakeout lower first.
The X factor here is the NFP (jobs report) on friday at 830 am eastern. Ultimately, I think we are headed for 4250 and I think we will see some real resistance here.
Morning Ideas August 1, 2022Good morning traders...
Market is already open when writing this so I will keep it short.
I look for the market to get tangled up here between 4100 and 4200.
If we fall below the 4100 area with any kind of momentum, the first volume below that is significant is not until about 4000.
Morning Ideas July 28, 2022Good morning traders...
FED raised rates by 75 basis points yesterday, and the market went up! Powell also talked about how growth will have to slow (and the market went up). This is one of the many reasons not to trade news!!
I believe the market is trying to reach for 4100 and we have quite a bit of resistance there.
Personally, I would love to short it up there, but that may be the fundamental James speaking.
Morning Ideas July 27, 2022Good morning traders...
FOMC minutes are today at 2pm eastern, so again, I do not expect a lot of directional movement. We had more directional movement than I expected yesterday, but we ended up taking it all back at the close, due to earnings reports from some big companies.
It pretty much leaves us in the exact same place we were at the open yesterday, and I would expect to see more of what we saw overnight, than what we saw yesterday.
If we start to trend off the open, I would be careful chasing it into the FOMC minutes.
Morning Ideas July 20, 2022Good morning Traders...
I think it will be an interesting day today as the market is now above, and holding (temporarily) above 3900-3910 area. We have basically 100 points until the next area above us, so long as 3900 can hold below us.
If it does not, I think we go back down and test the lows again! I am going to say long here, but it's with a very short leash as I think we are vulnerable if we give 3900 back.