Morning Ideas May 9, 2022Good morning Traders,
Market continues to have trouble holding onto higher prices, and we are now threatening another leg down to 3966 area.
We are hanging out below the -2 standard deviation on the month, which is troubling for this market. We may get a temporary rally towards VWAP, but I would expect it to to continue lower and run into that 3966 area eventually.
Takeprofittrader
Morning Ideas May 6, 2022Good morning traders,
Starting to build out a new "balance" below our previous one. This is good news for the sellers.
The good news for the buyers is we are at the lows of that "balance."
I think this will create a sort of tug of war down here around 4100 today, and I can see this market whipping both ways, and end up going nowhere.
Morning Ideas May 5, 2022Morning Traders,
FED 50 basis point rate hike sent the market higher, mainly (i think) because they said a 75 basis point rate hike was off the table.
Either way, we are back at 4300, which continues to be strong resistance above. I'd expect that to continue until we can get above 4300 and HOLD.
I will still lean short until then.
Morning Ideas May 4, 2022Good morning traders,
Big FOMC Statement looming today. I would expect a non-committal type of market today, until after the statement is released at 2pm eastern time. That usually means a sideways market, with a slight edge to risk off (down).
If the FED makes a Statement about 50 basis points rate hike, I think it would be better to not trade, as it will likely be very volatile and difficult to trade with manageable stops.
Morning Ideas May 3, 2022Morning Traders,
Not much has changed, I would still give the edge to the sellers, with an intermediate resistance of 4215, then the big one at 4280-4300.
To me, the path of least resistance continues to be lower, but FOMC tomorrow could change that depending on the rate hike.
Morning Ideas May 2, 2022Good morning traders,
We continue to build out volume in the area below our big balance area. THis is a good sign if you're a seller, and you're looking for more down.
Also, we don't have a whole lot of trading in this area, so continued selliing will likely take us towards 3960 area, which is a couple hundred points away.
I would like to see the market take back 4300 before I would be excited about any kind of longs.
Morning Ideas April 28, 2022Good morning traders,
Market continues to auction pretty well here. It seems like it wants to come back and test 4300 area again.
Watch today to see if we continue to build volume lower. Keep extending your profile out as the day progresses.
This will tell you if the market is accepting these lower prices. The more volume below the previous value area (the yellow area on the video), the more likely the market continues lower.
Morning Ideas April 22, 2022Morning Traders,
The move down yesterday is your normal chop in these wide balance areas.
I have said the same thing everyday this week and it comes down to this:
I don't think there is an edge in the market when we are stuck in the middle of balance. As soon as you get fascinated with a direction, the market turns around and goes the other way.
This is CHOP and makes trading very difficult. Better to wait for the market to get to the edges of these areas (pink boxes) and trade from there. Atleast at that point you can manage your risk, as you are closer to where you are wrong.
Morning Ideas April 21, 2022Morning Traders,
Much the same, and we are approaching the top of this "balance" area.
I would expect us to push higher into that 4525 area and then struggle, possibly falling back into the middle of the big balance. However, this will likely take several days/weeks.
If we break higher, 4600 is the next area to watch after 4525, IMO.
Morning Ideas April 12, 2022Good morning traders,
CPI rose 8.1 percent this morning, pushing the market up...somehow.
This is why we don't trade around news. Inflation you would expect to hurt the economy, as it will likely mean faster tapering of asset purchases and quicker rate hikes to keep inflation in check. Both of those things are deflationary, and not good for the markets.
I expect the market to come back to this area of the news (4416) and get tangled up at the lower end of the distribution, before trying to go higher.
Morning Ideas April 11, 2022Good morning traders,
We are in a heavily traded area, with an over/under line at 4425 looming below. I would expect the market to dip down into that area today and try to find buyers. If we slip through, it puts us back into the lower distribution.
Everything I said above is big picture. Don't get too zoomed in and feel like the market is whipping around, when it's really just choppy in a heavily traded area.
Morning Ideas April 7, 2022Good morning traders,
Lots of volatility after the FOMC but the market didn't really go anywhere.
Again, ill say this, compared to the rally from mid-march, this pullback looks like nothing.
You will read on Twitter that the sky is falling, don't buy into everything you read. The market can go down yes, but is it likely? I'm not sure I'm buying that narrative today.
Morning Ideas April 6, 2022Good morning traders,
FED's Brainard had some tough comments yesterday, and the market did not like it. We have seen nothing but selling since.
We have plenty of room to run lower, but the profiles still look weak on the high side. With that said, that's more technical analysis, and fundamentals seem to be at play here. Im looking for some weakness in the morning, and that weakness to be bought, don't think it's a crazy selloff day, even though it looks that way right now.
Morning Ideas April 4, 2022Good morning traders and welcome to a new week.
Today I drew some longer term profiles to see the difference between how weve traded in 2022 compared to the end of 2021. I try to explain in the video that the market, to me, looks like it's still trying to get to 4700. We are at the high of value from 2022 basically, so it might pull back first, but I think we are trying to get to that number.
Morning Ideas March 31, 2022Good morning Traders,
Pretty quick to the opten here, so I will be brief.
I expect to see window dressing on this last trading day of the month. Doesn't mean it has to be a rocket ship to the moon, I feel like it's more support than a breakout day. If it does breakout, I would expect the market to run into a wall at 4660 area.
Let me know if you have any questions.