Morning Ideas April 18, 2022Hey guys,
Late to the party here, so I won't write too much.
Market staying in this area, for 4 months, so I wouldn't be surprised to see us continue to chop in here.
Takeprofittrader
Morning Ideas April 12, 2022Good morning traders,
CPI rose 8.1 percent this morning, pushing the market up...somehow.
This is why we don't trade around news. Inflation you would expect to hurt the economy, as it will likely mean faster tapering of asset purchases and quicker rate hikes to keep inflation in check. Both of those things are deflationary, and not good for the markets.
I expect the market to come back to this area of the news (4416) and get tangled up at the lower end of the distribution, before trying to go higher.
Morning Ideas April 11, 2022Good morning traders,
We are in a heavily traded area, with an over/under line at 4425 looming below. I would expect the market to dip down into that area today and try to find buyers. If we slip through, it puts us back into the lower distribution.
Everything I said above is big picture. Don't get too zoomed in and feel like the market is whipping around, when it's really just choppy in a heavily traded area.
Morning Ideas April 8, 2022Good morning Traders,
I explain something about markets trading around VPOC in the video today. Very important to understand where we are vs where weve been, so we can get an idea of what likely (not definitely) happens next.
I'm looking for chop today.
Morning Ideas April 7, 2022Good morning traders,
Lots of volatility after the FOMC but the market didn't really go anywhere.
Again, ill say this, compared to the rally from mid-march, this pullback looks like nothing.
You will read on Twitter that the sky is falling, don't buy into everything you read. The market can go down yes, but is it likely? I'm not sure I'm buying that narrative today.
Morning Ideas April 6, 2022Good morning traders,
FED's Brainard had some tough comments yesterday, and the market did not like it. We have seen nothing but selling since.
We have plenty of room to run lower, but the profiles still look weak on the high side. With that said, that's more technical analysis, and fundamentals seem to be at play here. Im looking for some weakness in the morning, and that weakness to be bought, don't think it's a crazy selloff day, even though it looks that way right now.
Morning Ideas April 5, 2022Hey traders,
The market seems to be doing fine at these higher prices, and I don't expect that to change in this low volume environment (50 percent relative volume).
I'd watch for a back and forth slow day to resolve itself higher, if there is any direction.
Morning Ideas April 4, 2022Good morning traders and welcome to a new week.
Today I drew some longer term profiles to see the difference between how weve traded in 2022 compared to the end of 2021. I try to explain in the video that the market, to me, looks like it's still trying to get to 4700. We are at the high of value from 2022 basically, so it might pull back first, but I think we are trying to get to that number.
Morning Ideas March 31, 2022Good morning Traders,
Pretty quick to the opten here, so I will be brief.
I expect to see window dressing on this last trading day of the month. Doesn't mean it has to be a rocket ship to the moon, I feel like it's more support than a breakout day. If it does breakout, I would expect the market to run into a wall at 4660 area.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Morning Ideas March 30, 2022Good morning Traders,
Two trading days left in the month and the market is up pretty big this month. The likeliest scenario at this point is for the market to "hold on" to those gains. Put another way, I don't expect to see selling materialize in these next two trading days.
Upper target is 4660 for me.
Morning Ideas March 28, 2022Good morning traders and welcome to a new week...
We continue to push the highs overnight, but I see resistance mounting in the 4555 area above. The market has been discovering prices beautifully, and with lower volume, I expect that to continue.
I would like to see a push higher to get short, but in the meantime, I will sit on my hands.
Gun to my head, I'd be long from here, but I wouldn't want to be long 30 points higher than we are now.
Morning Ideas March 25, 2022Good morning traders,
The market is approaching that 4535 area I spoke about yesterday, even if it doesn't get all the way there, I feel like we have reached the upper boundary of this distribution.
To me, the market looks like it wants to go higher, but being that it's Friday, I think today is a low volatility type day. If we get some movement above 4535, we may start to hit some stops, giving us fuel to move higher. However, I don't think that is the high probability scenario when looking at what the market is likely to do TODAY.
Morning Ideas March 24, 2022Good morning traders...
Low volume today, about 50% of the 20 day average. This does not bode well for anyone expecting a breakout kind of day. We are stuck in this upper distribution, looking for some fuel to push us out of here.
I have my reference points as 4535 above and 4425 below. Once we move below (or above) those areas, I think it gets easier to pick the direction.
Morning Ideas March 23, 2022Good morning traders,
We pushed all the way up to 4515, and we have pulled back a bit into the 4480 area. I would expect to see the market stay in this red box I have drawn on the video, as it will likely be choppy from 4530 to 4420.
I know that is a 100 point range, but that's what the market is giving us now. I would NOT be alarmed if you are long and you see the market pulling back deeper here...
Morning Ideas March 22, 2022Good morning traders,
Market continues to push higher in the face of a world that is falling apart. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, if you're a day trader, trade what is in front of you. Fundamentals tend to lag so don't fight what the market is trying to do right now.
There will be plenty of time to jump on the short train, when it comes, and I think it will.
Stick to your guns here.
Morning Ideas March 21, 2022Good morning traders...
Welcome to a new week and a new opportunity. The market has rallied all of last week, leaving us all the way up at 4450 in this second distribution that I explain in the video.
On a technical level, that is a positive for the bulls. Fundamentally, I'm not so sure this market has legs. However, as I explain in today's video, fundamentals tend to lag and therefore I'd be careful just blindly shorting this market because you "think" it's gone too far.
Market doesn't care what you think, or what I think. In my view, the market has to favor the bulls here, but that can change quick with a news headline!
Morning Ideas March 18, 2022Good morning traders,
We finally broke through and stayed through the 4320 area. This leaves us in the upper part of the thick profile, with the top of the distribution being around 4425.
I would expect the market to chop in this area, but get some temporary support in the 4360 area this morning on any kind of dip.
It was a pretty muted trade overnight, and with FOMC behind us, I think it's going to take a news event to have another wild day today. I'm looking for today to be more chop and drift (higher)
Morning Ideas March 17, 2022Good morning Traders,
FED chairman Powell confirmed the rate hike in the announcement yesterday, and also pointed to hiking rates 6 more times this year.
The market took this as a positive, as this is a sign of strength AND the FED getting the inflation under control.
Tehncially speaking, we have taken back and finally pushed through the 4320-4330 area, back into the middle of this thick zone. Path of least resistance is higher now, technically. I would expect the market to continue higher now, as it had ample reasons and chances to go lower in the last two weeks.
I would still caution everyone, as there are plenty of factors to contend with here on the news front.
Morning Ideas March 16, 2022Good morning traders...
Market has just opened and we have quite a bit for strength since yesterday, RIGHT BACK to 4300 level.
Remember this level? You should because if you look at the big picture chart, 4320 is where we have a massive amount of volume. It's where the market kept failing from last week.
With that said, all of this takes a back seat to the FOMC announcement todAy at 2pm. I think this is a dangerous announcement for Powell to navigate. The last few announcements have been taken as a positive by the market, but I don't see how further tightening and rate hikes will be positive for this market.
I want to be clear, I do NOT trade news, and I don't think you should either. The reason is that even if you knew what Powell was going to say, you still don't know how the market will react to it.
Morning Ideas March 14, 2022Good Morning Traders,
I've added some new stuff to the chart, if you guys want the new version, just click on the microphone at the bottom right of the video and use the "make it mine" feature. It's nothing groundbreaking, just a top down approach with some VWAP's now that you can use monthly, weekly, and daily VWAPs in TradingView.
As for the market, we are stuck in the same cycle, market sitting around and waiting for news. The market continues to struggle to hold on to higher prices. However, I'd take all price action with a grain of salt in front of this massive FED announcement on Wednesday this week. I think the closer we get to that announcement, the slower the market gets.
For that reason, I'd take a more neutral stance here
Morning Ideas March 11, 2022Good morning traders!
First thing, I forgot to mention on the video that you should roll to the new contract. We are now trading the June 2022 contract.
By Friday afternoon, usually, the majority of the volume is on the new contract. I would expect that to be the same today.
Let us know if you have any questions!
Morning ideas March 10, 2022Good morning traders!
4300 continues to be heavy resistance above. We tried again overnight and now we are trading 80 handles lower.
So, while fundamentally there is a whole slew of issues that need to be resolves (interest rates, Russia/Ukraine, inflation, etc), the technical levels are still holding just fine.
I'd hope that continues because it provides pretty solid entries. I'd look for more volatility today, and a 2 way trade.
Morning Ideas March 9, 2022Morning Traders,
Want to get you guys this video fast today, as the market is about to open.
I would expect much of the same as yesterday, as we are now only 5 trading days to the big FOMC announcement. Heavy resistance remains overhead at 4300
