Morning Ideas April 27, 2022Good morning traders,
Having trouble uploading today for whatever reason.
Takeprofittrader
Morning Ideas April 26, 2022Good morning traders,
I will keep the writeup short today, as I think it's a must watch video if you're struggling.
Morning Ideas April 22, 2022Morning Traders,
The move down yesterday is your normal chop in these wide balance areas.
I have said the same thing everyday this week and it comes down to this:
I don't think there is an edge in the market when we are stuck in the middle of balance. As soon as you get fascinated with a direction, the market turns around and goes the other way.
This is CHOP and makes trading very difficult. Better to wait for the market to get to the edges of these areas (pink boxes) and trade from there. Atleast at that point you can manage your risk, as you are closer to where you are wrong.
Morning Ideas April 21, 2022Morning Traders,
Much the same, and we are approaching the top of this "balance" area.
I would expect us to push higher into that 4525 area and then struggle, possibly falling back into the middle of the big balance. However, this will likely take several days/weeks.
If we break higher, 4600 is the next area to watch after 4525, IMO.
Morning Ideas April 20, 2022Good morning traders,
Status quo this morning. Still stuck in the same area.
Check the areas on teh video that I'm looking for the market to stay between!
Morning Ideas April 19, 2022Good morning Traders,
The market is still in this heavily congested area. We have 80 points to run lower, and atleast 100 to run higher before we get out of this area, so I wouldn't expect any kind of "trend" to start until we leave this area.
Morning Ideas April 18, 2022Hey guys,
Late to the party here, so I won't write too much.
Market staying in this area, for 4 months, so I wouldn't be surprised to see us continue to chop in here.
Morning Ideas April 12, 2022Good morning traders,
CPI rose 8.1 percent this morning, pushing the market up...somehow.
This is why we don't trade around news. Inflation you would expect to hurt the economy, as it will likely mean faster tapering of asset purchases and quicker rate hikes to keep inflation in check. Both of those things are deflationary, and not good for the markets.
I expect the market to come back to this area of the news (4416) and get tangled up at the lower end of the distribution, before trying to go higher.
Morning Ideas April 11, 2022Good morning traders,
We are in a heavily traded area, with an over/under line at 4425 looming below. I would expect the market to dip down into that area today and try to find buyers. If we slip through, it puts us back into the lower distribution.
Everything I said above is big picture. Don't get too zoomed in and feel like the market is whipping around, when it's really just choppy in a heavily traded area.
Morning Ideas April 8, 2022Good morning Traders,
I explain something about markets trading around VPOC in the video today. Very important to understand where we are vs where weve been, so we can get an idea of what likely (not definitely) happens next.
I'm looking for chop today.
Morning Ideas April 7, 2022Good morning traders,
Lots of volatility after the FOMC but the market didn't really go anywhere.
Again, ill say this, compared to the rally from mid-march, this pullback looks like nothing.
You will read on Twitter that the sky is falling, don't buy into everything you read. The market can go down yes, but is it likely? I'm not sure I'm buying that narrative today.
Morning Ideas April 6, 2022Good morning traders,
FED's Brainard had some tough comments yesterday, and the market did not like it. We have seen nothing but selling since.
We have plenty of room to run lower, but the profiles still look weak on the high side. With that said, that's more technical analysis, and fundamentals seem to be at play here. Im looking for some weakness in the morning, and that weakness to be bought, don't think it's a crazy selloff day, even though it looks that way right now.
Morning Ideas April 5, 2022Hey traders,
The market seems to be doing fine at these higher prices, and I don't expect that to change in this low volume environment (50 percent relative volume).
I'd watch for a back and forth slow day to resolve itself higher, if there is any direction.
Morning Ideas April 4, 2022Good morning traders and welcome to a new week.
Today I drew some longer term profiles to see the difference between how weve traded in 2022 compared to the end of 2021. I try to explain in the video that the market, to me, looks like it's still trying to get to 4700. We are at the high of value from 2022 basically, so it might pull back first, but I think we are trying to get to that number.
Morning Ideas March 31, 2022Good morning Traders,
Pretty quick to the opten here, so I will be brief.
I expect to see window dressing on this last trading day of the month. Doesn't mean it has to be a rocket ship to the moon, I feel like it's more support than a breakout day. If it does breakout, I would expect the market to run into a wall at 4660 area.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Morning Ideas March 30, 2022Good morning Traders,
Two trading days left in the month and the market is up pretty big this month. The likeliest scenario at this point is for the market to "hold on" to those gains. Put another way, I don't expect to see selling materialize in these next two trading days.
Upper target is 4660 for me.
Morning Ideas March 28, 2022Good morning traders and welcome to a new week...
We continue to push the highs overnight, but I see resistance mounting in the 4555 area above. The market has been discovering prices beautifully, and with lower volume, I expect that to continue.
I would like to see a push higher to get short, but in the meantime, I will sit on my hands.
Gun to my head, I'd be long from here, but I wouldn't want to be long 30 points higher than we are now.
Morning Ideas March 25, 2022Good morning traders,
The market is approaching that 4535 area I spoke about yesterday, even if it doesn't get all the way there, I feel like we have reached the upper boundary of this distribution.
To me, the market looks like it wants to go higher, but being that it's Friday, I think today is a low volatility type day. If we get some movement above 4535, we may start to hit some stops, giving us fuel to move higher. However, I don't think that is the high probability scenario when looking at what the market is likely to do TODAY.
Morning Ideas March 24, 2022Good morning traders...
Low volume today, about 50% of the 20 day average. This does not bode well for anyone expecting a breakout kind of day. We are stuck in this upper distribution, looking for some fuel to push us out of here.
I have my reference points as 4535 above and 4425 below. Once we move below (or above) those areas, I think it gets easier to pick the direction.
Morning Ideas March 23, 2022Good morning traders,
We pushed all the way up to 4515, and we have pulled back a bit into the 4480 area. I would expect to see the market stay in this red box I have drawn on the video, as it will likely be choppy from 4530 to 4420.
I know that is a 100 point range, but that's what the market is giving us now. I would NOT be alarmed if you are long and you see the market pulling back deeper here...
Morning Ideas March 22, 2022Good morning traders,
Market continues to push higher in the face of a world that is falling apart. I said it yesterday and I'll say it again, if you're a day trader, trade what is in front of you. Fundamentals tend to lag so don't fight what the market is trying to do right now.
There will be plenty of time to jump on the short train, when it comes, and I think it will.
Stick to your guns here.
Morning Ideas March 21, 2022Good morning traders...
Welcome to a new week and a new opportunity. The market has rallied all of last week, leaving us all the way up at 4450 in this second distribution that I explain in the video.
On a technical level, that is a positive for the bulls. Fundamentally, I'm not so sure this market has legs. However, as I explain in today's video, fundamentals tend to lag and therefore I'd be careful just blindly shorting this market because you "think" it's gone too far.
Market doesn't care what you think, or what I think. In my view, the market has to favor the bulls here, but that can change quick with a news headline!
Morning Ideas March 18, 2022Good morning traders,
We finally broke through and stayed through the 4320 area. This leaves us in the upper part of the thick profile, with the top of the distribution being around 4425.
I would expect the market to chop in this area, but get some temporary support in the 4360 area this morning on any kind of dip.
It was a pretty muted trade overnight, and with FOMC behind us, I think it's going to take a news event to have another wild day today. I'm looking for today to be more chop and drift (higher)
