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10/28 Confirmed yearly bull flag. Overview : The AMEX:SPY closed the week lower, breaking a six-week winning streak that had started just before the first rate cut. NASDAQ:QQQ managed to stay green, hovering near an all-time high. Last week, the Fed reported 738,000 new home sales and 3.84 million existing home sales. Notably, while existing home sales are declining in a descending triangle pattern, new home sales have been forming an ascending triangle—signaling diverging trends in housing demand. The job market showed resilience, with jobless claims lower than the last two readings, indicating improvement. However, this job strength could complicate rate cuts since the Fed targets stable inflation around 2%. This week brings major data releases: Tuesday’s job openings, Wednesday’s Q3 GDP, and Thursday’s and Friday’s PCE, Core PCE, and the U.S. unemployment rate. Expect a quieter start to the week but brace for potential volatility in the latter half. According to the CME tool, the likelihood of no rate cut has dipped to 1.1%. This rate cut probability has fluctuated widely over the past two weeks, from 13% to 1%, making it crucial to understand how the CME calculates this metric: 1.Market Data: Fed Funds futures prices reflect market expectations for Fed rate changes. 2.Probability Calculation: The tool derives implied rate change probabilities from the difference between current rates and futures prices. 3.Assigning Probabilities: Each possible outcome—rate cut, hike, or no change—is assigned a probability based on the futures data. CME Group holds a key position in financial markets, having formed from the merger of major exchanges: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX). This vast network underscores why CME’s Fed tool is a pivotal reference for understanding rate expectations. In the crypto world, ETFs, especially those from BlackRock, have been on a BTC buying spree, significantly outpacing their usual purchase amounts four out of five trading days last week—continuing a pattern that began on October 14. Since then, BTC has climbed from the key level of $62.8k to around $69k, although other institutional players remain less active. This is reminiscent of BlackRock’s February buying spree, which saw BTC rise from $52 k to $61k in just two weeks, with BlackRock averaging $600 million in BTC purchases daily. We’re watching this as a potential signal, though no one’s showing similar interest in ETH ETFs, not even BlackRock, who seems to have stopped DCAing into it. BTC TA : W : The week ended with a small red candle, a relatively calm finish considering BTC is nearing $70k. Could this set us up for a breakout ahead of election results and potential rate cuts? D : Volatility hit hard last week, as anticipated. After a rally to $69k, Friday saw a dip, but big players defended the $66.5k level. Zooming out, BTC’s price rejected the upper bound of a year-long bullish flag, confirming the breakout on October 16 and reducing fake-out risks. However, there are currently no bullish divergences across MACD, RSI, CVD, or OBV. 4h : The recent triple divergence has been cleared, with no new divergences appearing. 1h : Overbought RSI and a shooting star at Monday's open signal a short-term correction, with support at $68.2k and $67.7k. Alts Relative to BTC : ETH remains in a consolidation phase, still far from breaking all-time highs like BTC. SOL has been tracking BTC's moves more closely, while NEAR is close to its yearly low of $3.8. Meanwhile, SUI, APT, and TAO saw 20%-30% corrections last week. Bull Case : We’re breaking out of a year-long bull flag, potentially en route to $100k, with BlackRock leading the charge. Trump appears likely to win, the CME tool shows only a 1% chance of no rate cut, and gold is on the rise. Unless gold crashes, BTC might hold steady. Bear Case : Is this just another bull trap set by market makers? Fear and Greed Index : 54 – Neutral. We may see a shift to greed if BTC breaks above $73k.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EvgenCapital
10/23 5th time BTC rejected from 70k. Bullish? Overview: The AMEX:SPY saw a healthy pullback of 0.9%, with a long wick touching levels last observed on September 26th. The index trended downward from the start of the trading session but rebounded sharply in the last two hours, doubling the volume seen earlier in the day. This surge formed a hammer candle—a bullish indicator, particularly when accompanied by increased volume. Existing home sales in the U.S. dropped 1% from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September 2024, marking the lowest level since October 2010. Today, new home sales and initial jobless claims are expected, with forecasts set at 245k, slightly above the previous reading of 241k. If the numbers come in lower than expected, it would suggest the economy is not cooling sufficiently, potentially extending inflation. This decline could be attributed to a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which jumped 14 basis points to 6.82%, the highest since July 26 and a 71-basis-point increase since the Fed’s last major rate cut. The likelihood of a rate cut in November has now dropped to 7%, influenced heavily by the Fed's upcoming reports. Given the weakening housing data, a rate cut may still be necessary to support the economy. The recent market correction has exposed different strategies among ETF managers. BlackRock continues to buy aggressively, maintaining its purchase levels even after a 5% correction, keeping its stance bullish. Fidelity has remained neutral, staying on the sidelines since the peak of the current bull wave. ARK Invest, however, bought heavily at the top but is now selling during the correction, realizing losses. In summary: BlackRock is bullish, Fidelity is neutral, and ARK is bearish. BTC TA: W: BTC is slowly forming this week's red candle, but bullish hopes persist. D: A significant correction unfolded, as the triple divergence likely completed. The day's wick dipped below $65.8k, then bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level, calculated from the bullish pump that began on Monday, October 14th. Despite the pullback, BTC showed higher volume and managed to recover. The final daily candle formed a bullish hammer, although the volume wasn't notably higher than the last two bearish days. As previously mentioned, as long as $62.7k holds, the bullish outlook remains intact. Drawing trendlines for BTC this year shows the current upper boundary is slightly sloped downward—forming the top of what appears to be a bullish flag. It follows a large rally, with a slight pullback and consolidation, setting up for another potential breakout. Last Friday, on the 18th, the trendline was broken, suggesting a bullish confirmation if retested. However, yesterday’s price action pushed BTC below this trendline. Of course, the trendline could be adjusted to fit the bullish narrative, but the key level to watch is $66.5k. 4h: A sharp drop occurred yesterday, but most of it was recovered in the latter half of the day. This dip seems correlated with the S&P 500’s drop. BTC lost the local point of control at $66.8k but regained it. If bearish momentum continues this week without positive news, and if BTC falls below $65.8k, the next critical support is the yearly level of $62.7k. However, this would be the fourth or even fifth time this year that BTC has been rejected from $70k. If that happens again, will there be enough bullish momentum left to hold $62.7k? The candle that bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level formed a green hammer with above-average volume—a bullish sign. 1h: The hourly chart shows a V-shaped recovery, an uncommon pattern in market behavior. Beyond that, no additional insights. Alts Relative to BTC: Interestingly, SOL has been rising while the rest of the market declines. Some attribute this to renewed interest in memecoins. However, popular Solana-based memecoins like WIF, BONK, and MEW are down, with only Popcat showing gains. Bull Case: BTC faces rejection at $70k, followed by a deep pullback, and the Fed decides not to cut rates in November. Bear Case: The Fed cuts rates, and BTC rallies. Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 52, continuing its downward trend this week. Opportunities : Check BINANCE:APTUSDT for a possible short opportunity. If SUI and TAO already corrected after their big pump, APT still wobbles at the top and recently posted bearish shooting star daily candle with high volume.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
10/22 Triple divergence is playing out. How deep?Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed down by only 0.16%, despite opening lower than Friday’s close. During the second trading hour, the index dropped 0.5% but managed to recover the losses throughout the day. Only a few AMEX:SPY stocks ended in the green, with Nvidia gaining 4.14%. Despite this minor pullback, the index has seen six consecutive weeks of growth, and one red weekly candle wouldn't derail a bull run that has gained 23% since the start of the year. The tech-heavy NASDAQ:QQQ also closed in the green, up 0.19%, thanks to Nvidia’s boost. The U.S. Leading Indicator Index (LEI) fell by 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a steeper decline than the expected -0.3% and more significant than the -0.2% drop in August, according to The Conference Board’s report on Monday. From March through September 2024, the LEI dropped 2.6%, exceeding the 2.2% decline in the previous six-month period. "Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid." This index has been decreasing since March 2022, and Monday’s reading officially places it below its lowest point during the COVID-19 period in April 2020. However, the rate of decline appears to be slowing. Meanwhile, companies are still reporting better-than-expected earnings. Some well-known names reporting today include GE Aerospace (Boeing's engine supplier), Philip Morris, Verizon, General Motors, 3M, Enphase, and Invesco (owners of the QQQ ETF). The CME Watch Tool now shows an 11.1% chance of no rate cut on November 7th, up from last week’s 9.3%. While BTC dropped 2.40% on Monday, BlackRock still bought $329 million worth of BTC ETFs. It’s almost amusing to think that BlackRock could be acting as someone’s exit liquidity. The firm now owns 362,192 bitcoins, valued at $23.169 billion. BTC TA: W: Unfortunately for the bulls, BTC closed last week at $69k, which is below the highs of the last two bullish waves in late March and early June. D: Monday ended with a 2.40% correction—much needed after last week's strong rally. A timely release of pressure increases the likelihood of the bull run continuing. An important level to maintain is $66.9k, as it’s the point of control for this recent rally starting from October 10th. The next support levels are $65.8k and the key yearly support at $62.7k. Breaking below $62.7k would invalidate the current bullish wave. On the bearish side, Monday’s candle engulfed the previous five trading days (including the weekend). Before the pullback, the RSI hit 70. 4h: As we spotted and wrote about in our previous letter - the 4-hour chart showed MACD, CVD, and RSI divergences, with three consecutive declining peaks as the price continued climbing. The correction began on Sunday evening, and it may take more than a day to fully play out. The key level to hold now is $66.8k—if it breaks, the price may fall to the daily level of $65.8k. So far, it’s holding. 1h: The 1-hour chart looks bullish, as the $66.9k level is holding, with some bullish MACD and RSI divergence showing. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR have not declined as much as BTC. However, SUI has dropped more significantly by 5%, and TAO by 9%. APT is unexpectedly pumping, while DOGE is up by 27.30%. Seems like alts are diverging from BTC correction. At least the aren't collapsing 7 - 10%, which was the case in the past with BTC falling by 2.4%. Bull Case: BTC could be correcting slightly before resuming the bull run. If a recession is avoided, Trump wins the election, and rates are cut, the outlook remains positive. Bear Case: BTC may have reached an old resistance level without breaking it, confirming it as a solid resistance, and initiating a deeper correction. Fear and Greed Index: The index is back to Neutral at 57, down from the Greed territory of 60 over the weekend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
10/17 Give us a healthy pull back. Overview: The AMEX:SPY continues its upward trajectory, hitting new all-time highs. The bullish momentum is supported by more companies exceeding earnings expectations this week. Despite rising unemployment and persistent inflation, corporations are posting record profits. It’s a reminder that the stock market and the economy don’t always move in sync. The NASDAQ:QQQ , representing big tech, is hovering near its all-time high but struggling to break through. The Federal Reserve reported fewer initial jobless claims at 241k, a decrease from last week, but still higher than the average over the last three years. The CME Watch Tool now indicates a 9.3% chance of no rate cut in the next meeting on November 7th, influenced by these labor market figures. Meanwhile, a surge in BTC ETF purchases has been observed throughout the week. Yesterday, BlackRock acquired $309 million worth, nearly tripling its average of $117.4 million. This marks their fourth consecutive day of buying. Even Grayscale joined the action. Altogether, $1.854 billion flowed into BTC ETFs this week. This could either mark the peak of the sixth bullish wave or set up a breakout from the year-long bullish flag pattern. BTC saw an 8% rise this week, making it one of the top five best-performing weeks of the year, including February's pump following BTC ETF approval. However, the volume remains lower than expected. For a full trend confirmation, we need institutional whales to join in. If we are indeed breaking out of the bullish flag, the volume should match levels seen at the beginning of the bull run in October and November 2023, when weekly volumes were 80-100% higher than this week. BTC Technical Analysis: W: On the weekly chart, BINANCE:BTCUSDT candle wick has reached July's open and close but hasn't tested its highs around $70k. A close above $68.2k this week would be a bullish signal. We still have Friday, but the weekend isn’t likely to bring much action. D: BTC has been at the upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days without any correction or pullback. The candles are reminiscent of the week of September 3rd, which saw an 8.5% pump, followed by a fake breakout and an additional 4.54% rise before a sharp decline wiped out all gains within ten days. A healthy pullback could target the $64-68k range—but of course, the bullish sentiment says, "No pullbacks on the way to the moon!" 4h: The current pump started at the key 2024 level of $62.7k, rising in three waves. The third push had lower volume, signaling a price-volume divergence. RSI has exceeded 70 twice and is now trending down, showing divergence with the price. On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) also indicate divergence. Without a clear shooting star candle with high volume, nothing is confirmed yet. We might see some sideways action over the weekend before a possible breakout on Sunday evening. 1h: Bearish. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR are showing weakness. None have reached their July peaks like BTC, and they have all pulled back after this week’s pump. Quick question: Does MKR have a bottom? Bull Case: If we continue breaking out of the bull flag, the pump could extend into next week, with potential gains of another 6-8%. If Trump wins and crypto rallies, rates could be cut in November and December, bringing them down to 4.25-4.50%. Bear Case: We could continue oscillating within the $58-70k range, and we are currently at the upper end. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 58, still Neutral, but it touched the Greed level of 60 yesterday.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
10/14 Bull run if THIS level confirmed as supportOverview: The U.S. observed Columbus Day on Monday, with most businesses closed, but trading activity was still alive and well. The PYTH:SPY closed its fifth consecutive green day, reaching a new all-time high, while the PYTH:QQQ approaches its own record. Due to the holiday, the Federal Reserve didn't release any data, but tomorrow we'll see the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and by Thursday, we’ll have jobless claims numbers, retail sales, home builder confidence, and business inventory reports. Interestingly, the CME Watch Tool is now showing a 16.4% chance of no rate cut in November, up from just 10% last Friday. This shift may be in response to an overheated equities market. Meanwhile, Monday saw a wave of buying activity in crypto ETFs, with big names like BlackRock, Grayscale, and even Fidelity getting involved. ETH also caught BlackRock’s attention. For a more reliable corporate earnings calendar, try this updated tool: finance.yahoo.com BTC TA: W: Last week, BINANCE:BTCUSDT opened at $62,810 and closed at $62,845, forming a large indecisive doji candle but managing to stay above the Bollinger Band middle line (BB MA). Throughout the week, the price showed lower highs and lower lows until Asian bulls stepped in on Monday morning. While U.S. traders were off for the holiday, Asian traders pushed BTC past its previous high, stopping just short of the crucial $66,550 mark. Keep an eye on $62.7k—it’s a key level on the weekly, 3-month, yearly, and current bull run (since October 2023) point of control. Anything above this level suggests a potential breakout toward $70k, while falling below it could indicate a bearish trend. To confirm, we need to see $62.7k act as solid support. We’ve already had two fake breakouts, so the chances of another are slim, but not impossible. D: Over the last four days, BTC quickly moved from the bottom to the top of its Bollinger Bands. Coinbase reported 13.5k transactions on Monday—a strong volume, but not as high as in January or October 2023, when this bull run began. This suggests that larger institutional players are still waiting on the sidelines, watching closely. Despite the Fed’s rate cut and China’s $25 billion stimulus, global liquidity has been declining for the last 29 days. 4h: The RSI has hit 75, indicating an overbought condition. If you pull a Fibonacci retracement, the 0.618 level aligns with $64 k, which also coincides with previous weekly and daily resistance levels. This also matches the October 7th high, forming a critical level of interest. 1h: On Monday at 11 am Shanghai time, a large green candle kicked off a rally. Ten hours later, New York bulls joined the action, extending the pump. The rally lasted 19 hours, pushing BTC up by 6.23%. Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins are moving in tandem with BTC, but this rally isn’t as much about alts as it is about Bitcoin. While BTC gained 5%, ETH, SOL, and NEAR only posted gains of 6.x%, and none have reached their previous highs. SUI, APT, and TAO have even corrected slightly after their substantial gains of 100% or more over the last 30-40 days, leaving them room to consolidate. Bull Case: We’re on the verge of exiting the bull flag pattern. Once the global liquidity index starts rising again, markets will likely be flooded with cheap money, fueling risk-on assets like crypto. A bounce off the $62.7k level will confirm it as support, pushing the bullish narrative. Bear Case: If we see a third fake breakout, it could trap all the bulls. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 56, still in Neutral territory but just 4 points away from Greed. Prediction: The outlook remains bullish, provided we don’t see another fake breakout, and $62.7k can be established as a solid support level.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
TAO ending diagonalGETTEX:TAO is currently moving into an ending diagonal formation of submicro degree within wave 5, which indicates the potential for a significant shift in market dynamics. This pattern typically signals exhaustion in the current trend, with price action narrowing as it approaches the final stages. Traders should closely monitor this setup, as it could result in either a shallow correction or a sharp, massive drop depending on how the market reacts to the upcoming levels of resistance and support.
by OnehundredBTC
TAOUSDT - Emerging as a Market Leader in AI Crypto! TAO is positioning itself as a leader in the AI crypto space, showing impressive technical strength after a healthy retracement to major support. With its momentum building, TAO is now on the move toward new highs! Remember to trade safe and keep an eye on this promising asset! TAOUSDT Currently trading at $557 Buy level: Above $555 Stop loss: Below $445 TP1: $600 TP2: $700 TP3: $800 TP4: $1250 Max Leverage 3x Follow Our Tradingview Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
10/11 Can positive earnings season secure BTC Pumpctober?Overview: The AMEX:SPY continues its bullish streak, hitting a new all-time high and marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. But what’s fueling all this excitement? Just a few weeks ago, concerns about World War III and a looming recession were dominating the headlines. Now, it seems like the market is brushing off those fears. Pumping the AMEX:SPY means pushing up the stocks that make up the index, which suggests an improvement in their earnings, particularly net margins. Conveniently, earnings season typically starts in mid-October and runs through late October and early November. This past week, giants like PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all reported earnings—and they all beat analysts' expectations. What’s notable about this group is its diversity: from consumer staples like food and beverages to airlines, signaling strong consumer purchasing power, to investment and banking companies, which are more dependent on macroeconomic factors and the Federal Reserve’s decisions. These companies, often beneficiaries of quantitative easing, could be the early indicators of a trend. With such a strong start, we might expect more companies to continue beating estimates, setting the stage for what we’re calling "Pumpctober." In the coming week, we’ll hear from other banking giants like Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Healthcare heavyweights like Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group are also on the docket, along with Netflix. You can find the full list and earnings calendar here: www.ii.co.uk So, let’s sum it up: the market is surging, consumer spending seems robust, and on Friday, Jerome Powell reported higher-than-expected CPI and core CPI. It feels like the economy is running hot, but that also means no immediate need for an interest rate cut. What clouds the picture slightly is a higher-than-expected number of jobless claims—258k compared to the expected 230k, and higher than the previous 225k. If unemployment continues to rise, it could impact company earnings by Q1 and Q2 of 2025. For now, though, we’re all in on Pumpctober, with a 90% chance of an interest rate cut in November, up from 82%. ETF Flow: The big players aren’t buying BINANCE:BTCUSD or BINANCE:ETHUSDT . Retail investors are. BlackRock and Grayscale are still sitting on the sidelines. BTC TA: W: Bitcoin is barely holding onto the Bollinger Band MA and remains below the weekly and daily levels of $64 k. It’s also under the 2024 yearly point of control (Volume Profile indicator) level of $63.2k. However, we noticed that the current price is very close to the closing levels of the last two quarterly candles—June and September both closed at $62.6k. Until it breaks below $61.4k, we can’t call it bearish just yet. D: Thursday’s close below the key $60.5k level appeared to signal a breakout, but BTC quickly retraced, turning that breakdown into a fake-out. If the stock market keeps rallying, some of that liquidity and optimism could spill over into crypto, completing a bullish flag pattern. Saturday is showing some bullish momentum, but we need today’s candle to close above $62.8k to confirm a higher high. 4h: On this time frame, Bitcoin is battling strong resistance at $63k. It’s unlikely we’ll see significant movement on a Saturday, as market makers tend to be less active, but if BTC fails to break out from $63k, it would confirm a bearish trend, and shorting from here could offer a good entry point. 1h: On Friday, we saw 7 consecutive hours of aggressive buying starting at 9 am NYC time, with volume doubling the average and pushing BTC from $61.1k to $63k, a 3.19% jump. Alts Relative to BTC: What was a lower low for BTC was a higher low for ETH, SOL, NEAR, and BNB, which is a bullish sign. However, none of these alts have established a higher high, which cancels out the bullish sentiment. The best move for now is to avoid taking positions until there’s a major breakout with confirmation. Bull Case: We could be on the verge of a trend reversal, breaking the bullish flag pattern. Both the US and Chinese economies are about to be flooded with cheaper money, which could flow into speculative assets like crypto. Bear Case: This is an ideal moment to short BTC if it fails to reclaim resistance and turn it into support. The deadline for confirmation is Sunday evening. Fear and Greed Index: 43, back to Neutral. Prediction: All eyes are on Sunday, 9 pm EST and 6 pm PST, when Asian traders will return to their desks. Expect increased volatility as bulls and bears clash. Mistakes: Both SUI and TAO have continued to pump higher despite lower volumes and volatile price swings of around 15%. If it establishes a higher high, stalls and you short - at least you can trade the range while BTC decides its direction.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
10/9 Good news and bad news...Overview: Which would you prefer to hear first? Let’s start with the good news: the AMEX:SPY has updated its all-time high. If you have a 401k or any other pension fund, you’re likely seeing gains. Also, it's hard to argue that a recession is looming when the stock market is booming. Now for the bad news: crypto is down. Normally, this wouldn’t be alarming, as all markets fluctuate. But it's concerning when we see a divergence between the stock market and crypto. Even riskier tech stocks, like those in the NASDAQ:QQQ index, climbed 0.79%. If traders are eager to buy equities, why not crypto, or at least BINANCE:BTCUSD ? Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he delivers the CPI and Core CPI data along with initial jobless claims. Given that recent job reports nearly doubled expectations, we predict fewer jobless claims. The question is: will positive macroeconomic data help? On one hand, it means people have money to spend, which could benefit crypto. On the other hand, it could reduce the chances of aggressive rate cuts, keeping liquidity constrained, and preventing speculative assets from soaring. BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin but hasn’t touched its ETH ETF. When did ETH become so hated? CME fedwatch tool shows an increase in the probability of no rate cut in November, up to 17.2%, while the chances of a one-base-point cut sit at 82.2%. BTC TA: W: BTC needs to close above $61.4k to keep bulls in the game. Unfortunately, after today's drop, BTC fell below this crucial level, breaking the bullish structure it had been building since September 7th. Another important level is $62.7k, the point of control for the entire 2024 bull run, which was rejected yesterday. This week is shaping up to print another red candle, following the previous week. D: While the weekly levels are invalidated, the daily levels still offer hope. BTC bounced from the $60.6k support level, and we haven’t seen four consecutive red days since August. If tomorrow's CPI data hints at a bullish sentiment, we might see a small rally back to $62.1k. 4h: Price is currently closer to the lowest Bollinger Band, indicating it needs to catch up with its moving average. 1h: BTC has reached the Bollinger Bands' moving average, but for a stronger recovery, it needs to break beyond this level on the 4h chart to confirm a bounce. Alts Relative to BTC: TAO, SUI, and APT have reached higher highs, but with lower volumes, suggesting that the bullish trend is losing steam. These gains were likely driven by retail investors, FOMOing into the rally. Meanwhile, FTM is showing bearish MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart and was rejected at its weekly resistance of $0.69. Bull Case: At $60k, BTC is relatively cheap, considering how much adoption and recognition crypto has gained in 2024. Since we didn’t experience a massive sell-off in September and have held up into October, this might be your last chance to buy BTC at a sub-$100k price. Additionally, we’re in the Fear territory on the Fear and Greed Index, which historically offers an 83% chance of profitability if bought during this phase. Bear Case: From a technical perspective, things look bearish. Many key support levels have been invalidated, and the likelihood of the Fed not cutting rates in November continues to rise. Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear). Prediction: BTC may rebound to $62.1k before resuming its decline. Expect TAO, SUI, and APT to follow BTC's movements, with a potential drop back to pre-BTC ETF levels, which could see declines of 55-60%. Opportunities: Short TAO, SUI, APT, FTM.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
10/8 Market Tensions as S&P500 Wobbles Ahead of CPI, BTC Holds.Overview: The AMEX:SPY is hovering around its all-time highs, showing limited movement as investors await Thursday’s CPI report. Anticipation is building, but it seems the U.S. market may not make any significant moves until inflation data provides clearer direction. BTC TA: W: When examining the volume profile of this year's entire bull phase, the point of control—where the most trading volume occurred—stands at $63 K. This explains why BINANCE:BTCUSDT might consolidate at the current price range for longer than expected. Despite a second false breakout attempt, Bitcoin remains trapped between the crucial monthly support level of $61.4K and resistance at $64 K. On one hand, geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Middle East, while on the other, China's government has announced a $28 billion investment package. The SSE Composite Index surged 30%, though it recently corrected by 11% over the last two days. Notably, some of the significant green candles can be attributed to Asian market open times. D: The daily chart paints a clear picture of the price struggling to escape bearish pressure. It’s hovering just below the Bollinger Bands’ moving average. Monday presented a bearish hammer, and Tuesday ended with an indecisive doji. 4h: No divergences are evident on the MACD or CVD. The RSI sits around 45, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure. 1h: Price is oscillating around the $62.2K point of control level without any strong signals for bullish or bearish momentum. Alts relative to BTC: Major altcoins are moving in line with Bitcoin, with little divergence. However, SUI and TAO, after their impressive runs to all-time highs, have begun to correct. Bull case: If Trump is re-elected, accompanied by more interest rate cuts, this could boost the bullish narrative. The bull flag on the weekly chart is becoming more apparent and, if it breaks out, could signal a further upward trend. The formation of a reverse head and shoulders at the beginning of July, August, and September also supports a bullish outlook. Bear case: However, bears point out that we’re still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The double fake bull breakouts in recent upticks further signal caution. The market lacks new narratives, and regulatory crackdowns continue. Major CEXs now require strict KYC compliance, cutting off trading access for users in China, the UK, the U.S., and other key markets. While VPNs offer a workaround, the risks of locked accounts on exchanges registered in jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands add significant risk for traders. Fear and Greed Index: 41.71 - Neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
10/7 Can BTC hold bullish trend or was it a fake break out?Overview : The AMEX:SPY posted a decisive red candle today, with a strong bearish body. It’s rare to see appreciating equities while global liquidity has been declining for 21 consecutive days. The index is now trading at the lower end of the range established after the rate cut. The main sectors pulling it down include big tech (with the exception of beloved NVDA, which rose 2.24%), as well as utilities, insurance, and finance. On the other hand, oil, gas, and healthcare showed gains. Since Friday, the number of traders expecting no rate cut in November has quadrupled from 2.6% to 13.7%. This reflects market uncertainty: while no rate cut means continued tight credit conditions and less liquidity, it also signals the Fed’s confidence in a strong job market and rising salaries. The question remains, which factor will weigh heavier on speculative assets like crypto? Less liquidity suggests a bearish outlook, but a stronger job market could be bullish. This week could be pivotal for crypto. The question is whether BINANCE:BTCUSDT will hold above the 61.5k support level or break down, ending the fifth wave of this year’s crypto bull run. BTC TA : Weekly : After bullish momentum yesterday and earlier today, Bitcoin has since corrected. It’s now sitting at the BB MA and has moved away from the biggest volume node, leaving the point of control (POC). The 61.3k - 62.6k range isn't seeing much volume, and BTC will either hold above this or break through, which would be critical. Daily : Bitcoin retested the MM BA resistance after falling beneath it. Monday ended with a bearish hammer, signaling caution. No major divergences were spotted on key indicators. Last week on Friday we wrote "Daily had a nice pull back after dumping from bull trap. Given the last 16 days of trading, upper resistance is at $63.3 k. It will need a real miracle to brake that level." The promised pull back played out. Price actually rose to 64.4k. But miracle of braking it didn't happen. 4-Hour : No divergences, and the trend seems uncertain. 1-Hour : Over the weekend, Asian bulls pushed BTC upwards, triggering short liquidations that drove prices up to 63.9k. However, the upward movement was halted at the significant weekly resistance of $64 k. A pullback followed. Early Monday, U.S. bulls retested the $64 k level again, pushing prices as high as 64.4k. This retrace fell within the Fibonacci golden pocket, specifically between the 0.618 and 0.786 levels when measured from the high on September 27th. Alts Relative to BTC: NEAR, APT, TAO, FTM, and SUI are outpacing BTC and other altcoins as Monday progressed. ETH and SOL, however, remain closely aligned with BTC’s movements. Bull Case : Since early September, we’ve seen the beginnings of a new bull run, which could be fueled by potential rate cuts and improving macroeconomic conditions. A breakout from the bullish flag consolidation pattern forming on the weekly chart could lead to significant upside. Bear Case: The fifth wave may already be over, and we could be headed downward, marking the end of this year’s bull run. Fear and Greed Index : 41.49, indicating a neutral sentiment. This week holds the key for BTC's next move. Will it hold support or break down? Stay tuned.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
TAO Takes the Lead: Shifting Focus to the Top AI RunnerI was hesitant to post this setup since it’s already done a 2x from the lows. I completely overlooked GETTEX:TAO as a major runner in #AI, so I stuck with NYSE:FET instead. But now I see that GETTEX:TAO has a much stronger chart and greater potential. Both the weekly and monthly charts show confirmations, with the monthly possibly reaching over $1500. The daily just printed another trend, with $715 as the first target, and it’s likely to hit another ATH. It’s clear that this one is the leading AI mover, so I’ll shift some funds into this. I plan to ladder in my buys and hope for a retest at $545.
Long
by ZelfTrade
10/4 Nice rebound. Can we crash now? Overview: The AMEX:SPY opened Friday significantly higher than Thursday’s close, forming a bullish hammer candle and edging closer to its all-time high. This week closed higher than the previous week, though the previous week did see higher prices. The NASDAQ:QQQ mirrored the S&P’s action, showing similar price movement. BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into its ETH ETF, while other major players remain on the sidelines. One critical trend to monitor: Bitcoin has historically struggled to hit new all-time highs or maintain upward momentum when the Global Liquidity Index is in decline. Unfortunately, the index has been falling for the past 19 days. You can learn more about Global Liquidity Index and add it to your chart: The CME Fed Watch Tool has now removed the possibility of a half-percentage point rate cut in November, replacing it with a chance of no rate cut at all. Currently, 2.6% of traders believe there will be no rate cut in November, while 97.4% expect a 1 basis point cut. Even with a rate cut, it will take time for liquidity to flow back into markets. By the time that happens, Bitcoin may hit its bottom for this cycle, signaling the start of a new bullish phase. Be sure to have cash ready for that opportunity. BTC Technical Analysis: W: BTC’s price is nearing the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) at $62.6k. If Sunday’s price rises by $456, it would close at or above that level, offering temporary hope to bulls. However, a more critical level to watch is the previous weekly close at $64.1k. D : After a significant pullback from the bull trap, daily resistance is set at $63.3k. Breaking that level will require significant momentum. 4h & 1h: No clear signals on these timeframes. In a limbo. Altcoins Relative to BTC: APT and TAO have remained stable over the last 5 days, showing no significant declines after BTC’s bull trap. Shorting opportunities might arise soon. Bull Case: Looking at the past 28 days, we see a clear bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows. As liquidity eventually enters the market, more capital could flow into crypto, pushing prices higher. Bear Case: On a broader scale, since the start of the year, the market is still showing lower highs and lower lows, suggesting bearish risks are still present. Fear and Greed Index: 40.78 – Back to neutral.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
BitTensor (TAO) – Major Resistance at $683! Time to Reallocate?📊💥 BitTensor Soars – Profit-Taking Time? 🚀 Let’s take a look at BitTensor (TAO). We’ve been riding this wave since $83 and increased positions around $135. Now, with the price currently at $584, I’m eyeing my personal target of $683, where I’ll be taking at least half of my profits and reallocating to other promising projects. BitTensor’s market cap is nearing $4.5 billion, ranked 25th overall, but its trading volume is slipping to 36th. I’m happy with the gains so far and see $683 as a key resistance level, perfect for profit-taking. Once I’ve cashed out some gains, I'll look to reinvest into projects with more upside potential, such as Sui, Sei, Tia Celestia, CRGPT and AIOZ. It’s been a great run, but it’s time to plan the next move! Let me know your thoughts and let’s continue to navigate these markets smartly. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Long
by FX_Professor
6
9/30 Market Surge: SP500, Crypto, and Whale AccumulationOverview: The AMEX:SPY closed strongly today, spurred by dovish remarks from Jerome Powell during a press conference. Powell signaled that the economy is cooling and reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to achieving 2% inflation. As a result, 61% of traders now anticipate a 1 basis point rate cut in November, while 39% expect a 2 basis point cut. The AMEX:SPY had been gradually sliding earlier in the day, but Powell’s comments fueled a rally, allowing the index to engulf Friday’s red candle. Trading volume for the SPY ETF more than tripled during the press conference, reaching levels similar to Wednesday, September 18, when the recent rate cut was announced. Bullish. The tech ETF NASDAQ:QQQ didn’t manage to engulf Friday’s candle but still saw a solid rally, accompanied by trading volume that was 10x higher than usual. BlackRock continued its buying spree, acquiring $72.2 million worth of BTC, which is below their usual $118 million purchases. Over the past six days, BlackRock has accumulated nearly half a billion dollars worth of BTC and an additional $100 million of ETH. Is this how whales are dollar-cost averaging into the market? BTC TA: W: BINANCE:BTCUSD saw a sharp sell-off originating from Asia early Monday. Despite this, it remains above the Bollinger Band MA at $62.8k. The point of control for the current bull move is at $63k, with key weekly and daily resistance at $64k. BTC must hold within the $63k-64k range to maintain the bullish trend; failing to do so could signal one of the year’s largest bull traps. D: The recent correction has halted precisely at the point of control, where the most trading activity occurs. However, the RSI remains overbought at 73.4, and the MACD shows bearish histogram divergence. Bearish. 4h: On shorter timeframes, RSI has moved into oversold territory. Additionally, the VWAP oscillator has crossed above the 0 line, signaling short-term bullishness. A rebound to the $64.7k Fibonacci 0.618 level is possible. Bullish in the short term. 1h: Price broke through the weekly and monthly resistance at $64 k but is struggling to maintain this level due to significant selling pressure. Neutral to bearish. Altcoins Relative to BTC: Top altcoins have started pumping again after Monday’s correction. Coins like SUI, APT, and FTM posted gains of more than 7% by early Tuesday. These altcoins have proven that the recent correction was not a bull trap and are leading the market in this cycle. Even if BTC remains range-bound, altcoins could continue to pump, interpreting the situation as a non-bear market scenario. Bull Case: The bull trap has been avoided, and the market has resumed its uptrend. With additional liquidity expected from future rate cuts, the correction is seen as a temporary pullback. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance increases the likelihood of more liquidity flowing into speculative assets like crypto. Bear Case: The market may still be caught in a massive bull trap. Altcoin buyers at these levels could find themselves overexposed if the broader market falters. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 47.89, the index has pulled back from the "Greed" area and is now just below the midpoint of 50, indicating a neutral sentiment in the market. Prediction: If BTC fails to reclaim $64 k , sentiment may shift bearish in the near term. Conversely, reclaiming this level could pave the way for further upside, with a first target of $67k.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EvgenCapital
TAO Bittensor, my revenge chart after my defeat.Project description: Bittensor ( GETTEX:TAO ) is a decentralized machine learning protocol that incentivizes users to contribute computing power and train AI models on the blockchain. By leveraging a decentralized infrastructure, Bittensor aims to create an open, permissionless network for AI development. Type of project: Decentralized AI and machine learning protocol. Is it under a block?: Yes, Bittensor operates on its own blockchain, utilizing a decentralized network to facilitate AI model training and computation. GETTEX:TAO is used as the native token to reward participants who contribute to the network. Latest update or news: As of July 2024, Bittensor introduced Neuron Staking, allowing participants to stake their GETTEX:TAO tokens on AI models they believe will perform well, further aligning incentives within the network and driving improvements in model quality. Narrative: Decentralized AI, machine learning, blockchain infrastructure, and incentive-based computation. Why is it a good investment? Institutional Backers and Angel Investors: 1. Multicoin Capital: Multicoin Capital has backed Bittensor due to its innovative approach to decentralized AI, seeing it as a key player in the future of decentralized machine learning networks. Outlier Ventures: Outlier Ventures, a venture capital firm known for supporting Web3 and AI projects, has invested in Bittensor, recognizing the importance of decentralized AI infrastructure. KR1: KR1, a European blockchain investment firm, has also supported Bittensor’s vision for open, permissionless AI model training on the blockchain, seeing it as a critical step toward decentralized AI systems. 2. Angel Investors: Trent McConaghy (Founder of Ocean Protocol): While not directly invested, McConaghy has expressed strong support for decentralized AI projects like Bittensor that utilize blockchain technology to democratize access to AI resources and data. Sandeep Nailwal (Co-founder of Polygon): Nailwal, known for supporting decentralized infrastructure projects, has voiced interest in Bittensor’s approach to incentivizing AI model training through decentralized computation, though no confirmed direct investment. Futuristic Use Case: Decentralized machine learning model training: Bittensor enables the training of AI models in a decentralized manner, allowing participants to contribute computational power and data, which is crucial for building AI models that are not dependent on centralized entities. Incentivized AI development: Bittensor’s tokenomics incentivize participants to stake GETTEX:TAO tokens on high-performing AI models, aligning incentives across the network and driving continuous improvements in the quality of AI outputs. AI model sharing across industries: Industries such as healthcare, finance, and research can benefit from Bittensor’s decentralized AI models, which allow for the sharing and optimization of AI models across sectors in a transparent and permissionless way. Secure and transparent AI computation: By leveraging blockchain’s security and transparency, Bittensor ensures that AI models and computations are performed in a trustless environment, reducing risks associated with centralized AI model training. Why will it make a significant amount of profits? Unique competitive edge: Bittensor stands out from traditional AI platforms by decentralizing the training and development of machine learning models. This creates an open and permissionless ecosystem where anyone can contribute to AI development and be rewarded, giving it a unique position in the AI market. Growing demand for decentralized AI models: As the AI industry grows, the need for decentralized infrastructure that allows for transparent, secure, and scalable AI model training will increase. Bittensor’s approach of incentivizing contributors with GETTEX:TAO tokens will attract more participants and developers, driving demand for the token. Neuron Staking and incentivization model: Bittensor’s Neuron Staking system allows participants to earn rewards by staking GETTEX:TAO on AI models they believe will succeed. This creates a sustainable revenue model while encouraging continuous innovation in AI development. Revenue from AI model training and computation: Bittensor generates revenue by offering decentralized AI model training and computation services. As more businesses and developers use its infrastructure for AI model optimization, the value of GETTEX:TAO tokens will increase due to the growing demand for decentralized computation.
Long
by osodatsismoso
AIT Protocol; One Stop Shop under TAO Bittensor!Project description: AIT Protocol is a decentralized AI infrastructure platform designed to enhance the development and deployment of AI-powered applications by leveraging blockchain technology for secure data sharing, decentralized computation, and AI-driven services. Type of project: AI infrastructure and decentralized computation protocol. Is it under a block?: Yes, AIT Protocol operates on Ethereum and other compatible blockchains, utilizing smart contracts to manage AI-driven services and secure data exchange across decentralized networks. Latest update or news: As of August 2024, AIT Protocol launched its AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS) feature, enabling developers to access decentralized AI models and computation resources for building and scaling AI-powered applications on the blockchain. Narrative: AI infrastructure, decentralized computation, AI-driven services, and blockchain-based AI applications. Why is it a good investment? 1. Institutional Backers and Angel Investors: Pantera Capital: Pantera Capital has invested in AIT Protocol, recognizing its potential to bridge the gap between AI and blockchain, focusing on decentralized AI applications and services. Framework Ventures: Framework Ventures has also backed AIT Protocol due to its unique AI infrastructure approach, enabling decentralized computation and AI services in a secure and scalable manner. Outlier Ventures: Known for supporting Web3 and AI projects, Outlier Ventures has invested in AIT Protocol to push the boundaries of decentralized AI and its integration with blockchain ecosystems. 2. Angel Investors: Ben Goertzel (Founder of SingularityNET): While not directly confirmed, Goertzel has shown interest in projects like AIT Protocol that focus on decentralizing AI and integrating it with blockchain for secure and scalable solutions. Chris Dixon (a16z Crypto): Dixon, a key figure in supporting blockchain and AI convergence, has expressed support for the type of decentralized AI services that AIT Protocol aims to provide, though no direct investment has been confirmed. Futuristic Use Case: Decentralized AI applications: AIT Protocol enables developers to create AI-powered dApps that leverage decentralized computation and data storage, allowing for more secure and scalable AI models that can be accessed by a global user base. AI-driven services for enterprises: Enterprises can use AIT Protocol’s AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS) to integrate decentralized AI models into their business operations, providing automated insights, decision-making, and process optimization while maintaining data security. Cross-chain AI integration: AIT Protocol is designed to operate across multiple blockchains, enabling AI models to interact with different ecosystems and provide AI-driven services across various decentralized platforms and dApps. Decentralized data sharing for AI training: By leveraging blockchain technology, AIT Protocol allows secure, transparent data sharing for training AI models, solving critical issues related to data privacy and security in AI development. Why will it make a significant amount of profits? Unique competitive edge: AIT Protocol’s focus on decentralized AI infrastructure gives it a competitive edge in both the blockchain and AI sectors, providing scalable AI solutions that are not tied to centralized entities, thus appealing to developers, enterprises, and AI enthusiasts alike. Growing demand for AI services: As the demand for AI-driven services continues to grow across industries, AIT Protocol’s decentralized AI infrastructure will attract more developers and enterprises looking for secure, scalable AI solutions, driving demand for NYSE:AIT tokens. Revenue from AI-as-a-Service (AIaaS): AIT Protocol’s AIaaS model creates a sustainable revenue stream by enabling developers and businesses to access decentralized AI models and computational power for a fee, which will drive the utility and value of the NYSE:AIT token. Integration with Web3 and decentralized ecosystems: As more decentralized applications and platforms seek to integrate AI capabilities, AIT Protocol will play a critical role in providing AI services across Web3 ecosystems, making it a key infrastructure player in the growing blockchain and AI intersection.
Long
by osodatsismoso
4
9/28 Huge trend reversal. Bullish on crypto. Overview: Both the AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ closed with red candles, yet neither index dropped below the previous day's low. This, coupled with low trading volume, suggests the current price levels may hold for a while. Both indices display bearish divergences on the MACD histogram and lines, signaling potential weakness. The Federal Reserve reported August’s core PCE at 2.7% y-o-y, aligning with expectations and slightly up from July's 2.6%. Speculation surrounds whether rate cuts are fueling inflation, though typically, it takes months for such measures to impact the economy. Next year’s CPI and PPI readings will be crucial. ETF funds have been on a buying spree for seven consecutive days, with September 27th seeing record-high volumes—five times the average. Bitcoin Technical Analysis: W: BINANCE:BTCUSD remains above the Bollinger Bands’ MA, in line with the yearly bull-run volume point of control. After two months of bearish sentiment, signs of a trend reversal are emerging. Resistance is at $67.5k. Bullish. D: BTC broke above $64 k on Thursday and has held above this key level. However, RSI is now at 66.57, approaching overbought territory. 4h: RSI is overbought at 73.28, showing a double peak. MACD’s bearish crossover suggests a pullback to support levels at $65.2k or $64.4k. We expect either a pullback or sideways trading, allowing the MA to catch up. Bearish to neutral. 1h: The lower timeframes indicate BTC is undergoing a correction phase. Neutral. Altcoins Relative to BTC: No major divergences are observed. Unlike BTC, ETH and SOL have yet to reach their previous August 25th highs. Newer alts like SUI, TAO, and NEAR have surpassed their highs, showing strong performance. Bullish Scenario: With BTC holding above GETTEX:64K on the weekly chart, a bullish outlook is more plausible. Global rate cuts may inject liquidity into speculative assets, boosting crypto prices. Bearish Scenario: There’s a risk that the current rally is a bull trap, with a potential sharp reversal. Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 56.67, nearing the “greedy” zone, indicating growing optimism. Prediction: BTC may correct to $64 k before resuming its rally, with the next target being $67k. Opportunities: Bearish: BNB is at monthly resistance, with MACD bearish divergence. NEAR, RNDR, TAO, FTM, and UNI have hit weekly resistance levels, suggesting potential trend reversals. FTM and UNI still haven’t completed their corrections, and MACD divergences may appear over the weekend. Bullish: AR has rebounded from its weekly support level, indicating a strong recovery.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EvgenCapital
$TAO Bittensor to $5000Can TAO Bittensor hit $5k in the coming weeks? We know that Bittensor is heavily focused on AI and machine learning models. It works and some of the incredible subnets that have been built out so far. Bittensor is pumping aggressively, however it's now on key resistance. If we can manage to hold $480 to $450, we can see it going to $650 The key support I'm watching to maintain its bullishness is around $370 area I think when the alts season really kicks in, I don't think why TAO won't go hypothetically to the price of $5k
by Tealstreet
1