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Taper

The U.S. Dollar Is Breaking Major LevelsWhile everyone is focused on the meltdown in technology stocks and bond prices, the U.S. dollar is hitting even more historic levels to the upside. The U.S. Dollar Index started moving in late 2021 as the Federal Reserve got more hawkish. It accelerated after Russia invaded Ukraine and has continued upward every week since the end of March. The main pattern on today’s chart is the high around 103.80 where DXY peaked in January 2017. That was a major level because it marked the index’s highest level in over a decade. Prices consolidated in that area for the last two weeks before pushing above it early this morning. It could be an important event if the breakout holds because DXY is now back to its highest level since December 2002. Continued upside could further hurt risk appetite in the equity and crypto markets. It could also weigh on megacap Nasdaq companies with significant global operations. (A stronger greenback can lower the value of international revenues.) Traders might want to keep an eye on this chart – especially with the Fed still battling inflation and Europe’s economy under pressure. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more. Important Information TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means. This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves significant risks. Please click here for TradeStation Crypto’s risk disclosures on investing and trading in cryptocurrencies. Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TVC:DXY
by TradeStation
SPX500 Long IdeaThe S&P500 has recently seen a small sell-off towards the 4600 area. As we are at year-end many are making predictions as to where the SPX will be in 2022. Almost everyone predicts a level above 5000 which is very bullish. From a technical perspective, the RSI indicators on the 4hr chart are in oversold conditions (24) and the price has seen a small bounce from the 4600 area. We are close to all-time highs and considering the trend direction it makes sense that a retest of this level is likely. The target of this long position is the recent high of 4719. The stop loss area for this trade is at the 4600.00 level.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Orion-Markets
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 12/12 - 12/17Big week ahead in terms of tapering updates. We are very bullish coming into the week for the following reasons: 1. The market has been made aware of Powell's true stance on inflation since he told everyone "we need to let go of the word transitory." We did sell off soon after to 4500 as the market received the news, but since then, everyone has had time to digest it, and we rallied sharply back to almost all time highs. to me, that says they're essentially "accepting" his plan and think that the market is strong enough to withstand the taper 2. Big big dark pool prints all last week even with the knowledge of tapering. This is very supportive for the market Dec 15 will be very important. Powell can crush everyone's hopes and dreams if he comes out hawkish and speeds up his taper plan or increases the number of tapers. If this happens, our bias will change quickly.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Zeal_Trading
$DXY time to let the bears out*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* (Not a stock!)(FX Trade!) Short $DXY at $94.300. You might be thinking "why should I trust your judgement?" and I'm here to tell you that we're @SimplyShowMeTheMoney that's why. ENTRY: $94.300 TAKE PROFIT: $93.200 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BTC is ready to explode. Heres some thoughts to consider. Happy Thursday Everyone, I thought I would share a quick update on BTC from several perspectives. I track traditional equities and macroeconomic trends as closely as I track BTC and Ethereum so I hope this analysis adds a little value to your research. Its almost impossible at this point to find a single notable bearish metric for BTC or Ethereum from a fundamental perspective. Although this chart is for BTC, I feel that aside from the chart analysis, everything listed below applies to ETH directly as well. From a technical analysis perspective, we see previous resistance flipped to support. Healthy volume and sideways accumulation above a traditionally extremely challenging level of resistance. On chain data suggests that this recent price action is almost purely driven by long term investors and “strong hands”. I generally tend to avoid indicators like MACD and RSI at this point. We are technically still in a price discovery phase, so indicators like the RSI and MACD tend to break down in these levels. I prefer to focus on the assets respect to its current price channel and how it reacts to its locals levels of support and resistance. Keep it simple. No need to over analyze price discovery. We just need to observe its price action. Notable On Chain Metrics -Supply shock ratio highest since 2017 -Highest exchange outflows since 2018 -Illiquid Supply at ATH -Long Term Whale Addresses at ATH Macroeconomic Perspective The Fed announced yesterday that they will begin tapering at a slow rate beginning as early as the end of this month. The Fed is expected to cut Treasurys by $10 billion a month and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion. Tapering is expected to continue through Q3 of 2022. On the surface, this may appear bearish for BTC but it is actually bullish due to the fact that the Fed has essentially forecasted how long they expect inflation to be out of control without outside intervention. I see this as a major catalyst to BTC once the market has a chance to digest this. With that being said, this could strengthen the narrative of those who believe in a lengthened cycle through 2022 We have yet to see retail traders start to step in, FOMO hasn’t even begun yet and media coverage, for all intents or purposes, has been relatively quiet. We are in the eye of the storm at this point. Fasten your seatbelts and enjoy the ride.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ChimeraHoldings
Apple ($AAPL) Price Forecasts for Upcoming FOMC MeetingDownward pressure, combined with increased volatility should push $AAPL down from it's current levels to at least the bottom of it's current channel over the course of the countdown to a concrete tapering schedule. Many believe the FOMC meeting on Sept. 22nd could be the formal announcement, as it would give the market enough time to adjust accordingly, however, as far as we know, the Fed has still not reached a consensus. As with most market news, whether the tapering announcement happens or not, volatility will increase over the next week and a half, so it's important to keep an eye on both general market sentiment and price action and position yourself accordingly. This is a great week to play the edges as we are almost guaranteed to have hard swings. Historically, the market has dropped 3-5% every time JPOW has spoken in in the past year. Besides a highly-likely bounce going into Monday (strictly due to the "rubber-band-effect" of being oversold locally from a haste sell off), $AAPL should continue to dip until the market knows the verdict from JPOW and the Fed. An assumption at this point in time for all forecasts is that the upcoming Apple event has already been priced in, not only due to "buying the rumor" but also FAANG-M's massive "safe-haven" run-up over the past few months. The highest projected price has been labeled in the rare case Apple knocks it out of the park with their event or institutions want to induce FOMO in an unforgiving market. Overall market sentiment will most likely see through Apple's attempt to minimize the chip shortage and unless the future outlook can justify a sustained support channel, any pump should be short lived. For logic and reasoning behind the forecasts trajectories, I have labeled each with assumed situations that could cause them, which includes pivot points, TA, fundamentals, historical price action, etc. NOTE: This is NOT Financial Advice. Strictly for information purposes only. I know nothing and am nobody. I just draw pretty graphs and read an 8-ball.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by ZephyrFinance
3
EUR/USD - Fall Scenario 2 - Taper Supports GreenbackHello Traders Here is a new SELL Scenario, Federal Reserve 'on track' for tapering asset purchases. For a longer term, it can reach 1.15 and 1.14 for a quarter if you are patient. 💹EUR/USD SELL STOP ✅ Entry @1.16300 or below ✅TP-1# 1.16200 ✅TP-2# 1.16000 ✅TP-3# 1.15800 ✅SL# 1.16800 Source : www.actionforex.com JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
Short
by jamdejam
NZDUSD Vulnerable - Downtrend Reversal Here is a new Sell Opportunity. 💹NZD/USD ⏬SELL ✅ Entry @0.70700 or below ✅TP-1# 0.70600 ✅TP-2# 0.70500 ✅TP-3# 0.70000 ✅SL# 0.71800 My Forecast : This Pair Will fall because the crash of evergrande china will make it vulnerable, usd will be stronger and start tapering next year My sentiment is , NZD Will vulnerable facing USD and FED Decisions Also a steady risk sentiment is also contributing from Evergrande China NZD Faces Risk from Hawkish Shift in Fed Policy JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Don't hesitate to write comments. BE VERY Careful this is FOMC WEEK 21 -22 September. The movement can be huge. Prepare your stop loss if we are in the wrong direction.
Short
by jamdejam
5
Taper Comments Effects - Ape Mode Should be ExploitedRight or wrongly, as soon as the word ' taper' is announced, or even eluded to - the market goes into Ape mode and trades axiomatically - in full Ape mode it means: - Sell SPY - Buy DXY - Sell commodity currencies. Tapering is actually positive, so in effect the right thing to do if you don't want to scalp the short Ape Trade, is buy at lower levels particularly instruments like the SPY where you can build a position over time - the best of both words: timing the market and time in the market! PS. you don't need to be an Ape to know what the Apes will do. Just need to be their to exploit the phenomenon.
by Adam-Cox
Potential Opportunity - Patience PaysPreviously I wrote a brief note explaining caution for the US Banking industry as illustrated by XLF. This is due to: - market risk of a broader market pullback - as currently being experienced - impact from Covid-19 variants like Delta etc., - the cumulation of record high bank reserves (cash) which serve to stress Bank Capital and Capital adequacy ratios. These reserves have been building up due to the FED's policy of buying Bonds in the market. Once sold, the vendor banks cash at a Bank which severs to increase the Bank's liabilities. The FED has tried to mitigate this effect by using reverse repos - which is ridiculous - it should stop the buying / QE ie the naughty word - Taper!!! :) The opportunity to be long includes: - market risk subsides as debt ceiling is mitigated. - infrastructure bill goes through which is GDP positive. - further recovering of the US and European economies noting n increased travel facilitated by increased vaccination rates. - Bank capital being strong as it is, has seen some Banks start to sell assets which have a lower capital rating (for the purposes of capital measurement) and will eventually open the door to strong lending programmes noting the prior comment. - still good fiscal support - so economy, GDP and the broader market is growing. In other words a decent credit cycle may ensue which will be very positive for Banks and of course XLF. However - Patience Pays!!! Buying in smalls around key support areas and build a position - no 'binary' trading.
AMEX:XLF
by Adam-Cox