Tapereading
Using Put options in SPXU to trade the SPXDisclaimer
All TRADING involves high risk and YOU can LOSE a substantial amount of money, no matter what method you use. All trading involves high risk; past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
For Educational Use Only – Not To Be Utilized As Trading Advice
Strategy
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SPXU is inversely correlated to the SPX.
Trade SPXU weekly put options for cheaper premiums and expecting a larger move.
Purchase the weekly SPXU put options contract to trade upside in SPX. (A short term trading strategy to reduce capital outlay)
Use Level 2 Tape Reading to see the supply/demand of the market, including the
Pros
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Less capital outlay so much more efficient
There is a tracking error in the SPXU which can help in getting a better price into the put option (the option pricing will change based on the buyers and sellers in the options market). This can help in time delay for trade setup before the move comes into the SPXU instrument.
SPXU provides (-3x) exposure to a market-cap weighted index of 500 large- and mid-cap US companies selected by the S&P Committee. This -3x exposure can help speed up the change in price of the underlying, which can help move faster towards breakeven and above into profitability in the options contract.
Cons
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Options have an expiry date so some timing does come into question.
There could be a change in the negative correlation between SPXU and SPX due to tracking error.
The trade does not move enough in the direction of the put in SPXU over and above the breakeven that the premium
Premium decay in the option for short-term options which can result in Theta decay.
Put options tend to move slower (shorter deltas) than call options (larger deltas).
Summary
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This strategy is only meant for reducing the capital required to get exposure to the SPX via leveraged instrument such as option.
SPX 9/28/22 BUY setup and FVG failure exampleToday took a trade based on the 4H setup as the 10am candle opened. Saw that we had a LTF FVG on the 15m (bearish) that failed and became short term bullish and got the entry on the 15m-FVG(H). Order flow confirmed entry to the upside. Buyers hit the bid price at the entry and followed through afterwards.
Stop loss in profits and partialed at target 2 so this is risk free. Target 3 is the 4H-FVG(H) and that where I'm aiming for another partial. I hope this has some legs to keep running.
BTC LTF Chart Analysis (ICT / SMC)I'm open to ideas of further downside Price Action in the short-term, but I have a Bullish Bias towards a "rally" within a Bear Market scenario
where Price might seek higher levels of liquidity in the intermediate-term (over a span of months sometime in 2022-2023).
I won't ever make any specific Time and Price predictions beyond a general area of value
and even then I would only speculate on potential reactions from Price without assuming a complete reversal or continuation.
These are exciting times in crypto whatever your bias is for your timeframe.
Good luck and happy trading.
EURUSD ICT OTE Entry, Short sells with logical approaches HTFthe chart basically says it all, Not much for me to expand on here, I believe / hope I am at the point in my trading and studies on this system where I can safely simplify.
I hope this marks progress for me in as much as, I can now explain the theory (I believe) ICT is teaching, Loosely of course as OTE was my first venture and now I am expanding my knowledge with the new material.
To put it simply
I want to see several things happening that line up and present me with a Low risk, High reward entry.
IF the HTF Bias is in the direction of the trade
and THEN
The market moves against the higher move
And
1. Sweeps liquidity taking highs or lows
2. Hits an optimal trade retracement of a recent impulse leg (A relevant leg)
3. (this isnt a must but its a bonus) Hits a big figure or mid figure clean number
4. Shows signs of reversal, Displacement, breaks of inside structure, Reversal stages or counter trend exhaustion.
THEN:
I am presented a low risk opportunity within the confinements of time, This is usually within the LON NY session.
With a logical target that I can justify an expectaton of price movement to.
THEN I can trade. . . .
If you just back test that, you will not only discover positive results, You will start reading the tape and plotting the story while looking at the chart as evidence, This is a superior understanding.
This is what I search for, understanding, Knowledge, accuracy in prediction.
That's much more that a profitable trade.
How To : Momentum Shifts ( Key Set Ups)
Hi Traders! Lets review 3 Trade SetUp For Key Momentum Shifts:
For the past 28 years, I have been using three simple trades setups, that I'll explain in the video, to be selective in my trades and to identify key momentum shifts in the market. I hope these setups will be useful to you as well.
High Frequency Traders and Professional Traders will often run retail trader stops by blowing through key support and resistance levels like round numbers only to reverse shortly afterwards. We must protect ourselves from these tactics and be careful not to chase a move or get stopped out.
Recognizing and patiently waiting for one of these trade set up will help especially if you combined or recognize them with a chart formations like a double tops or head and shoulder pattern.
Trade Setup 1: Cross above a key resistance, recross below = shift of momentum. The same setup can be used with a cross below a key support level.
Trade Setup 2: Cross above a key resistance, recross below and a retest of the resistance with a Lower Higher = shift of momentum. This is my preferred setup.
Trade Setup 3: 2 touches to a key resistance or 2 touches to a key support and entering on the 3rd touch for a 66% probability of successful trade.
I hope these setup are helpful, whether you trade or invest, using key momentum shifts with support and resistance lines.
Hope it helps
Take care
Marc
RGSE Looking Bullish...Selling absorbed, short but sweet period of accumulation, and now a bullish move backed by volume. Doesn't get much simpler than this.