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Tapering

GOLD LONG TO 1974Here is an alternative scenario to current Gold shorts I am in from 1870. However, this long bias also has a very good chance to play out. I have noticed something interesting about market structure on the Daily timeframe. There seems to be a lot of resting liquidity on Gold sitting around the 1972 region. Since the start of the year, price has been edging lower, in every instance leaving liquidity above every high which still hasn’t been taken out. It’s a POSSIBILITY that this could be taken out some time early in 2022 before the drop starts. I’m still short to 1570, this is just an ALTERNATIVE scenario to keep us protected hence why my long positions are still open hedged against my sells. If we see a strong rejection around 1750-1735, it’s likely this bias could come into fruition hence why I’ll be taking buys. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors. What are your thoughts on Gold? Let me know!
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
XAUUSD SHORTING ALTERNATIVE FROM 1974GOLD ALTERNATIVE BIAS: I have noticed something interesting about market structure on the Daily timeframe. There seems to be a lot of resting liquidity on Gold sitting around the 1972 region. Since the start of the year, price has been edging lower, in every instance leaving liquidity above every high which still hasn’t been taken out. It’s a POSSIBILITY that this could be taken out some time early in 2022 before the drop starts. I’m still short to 1570, this is just an ALTERNATIVE scenario to keep us protected hence why my long positions are still open hedged against my sells. If we see a strong rejection around 1750-1740, it’s likely this bias could come into fruition hence why I’ll be taking buys. I am still in Gold shorts targeting 1570 long term for my investors and myself.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
1
GOLD LONG TO 1887Gold is currently trading inside a tight range and near to completion of its final wave (Wave 5) before we see a market reversal back down towards 1828. Another way to confirm that this is wave 5 and we're close to reversal is monitoring price action and the momentum of buys. We can see that price has now slowed down after a very strong uptrend and buyers are failing to push price any higher with the same momentum we had the previous 2 weeks. Also, with DXY (Dollar Index) gaining strength and trading towards a yearly high, Gold being a negatively correlated market in return should go down. We now have confirmation that Tapering is going ahead over the next few months which will decrease the demand of Gold against the Dollar. I will be catching this move on behalf of myself and my Account Management investors within my fund.
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by BA_Investments
DXY Technical Analysis & Forecast -Gone Parabolic, Targets Hit!Traders Dollar has gone parabolic as expected and has been gaining strength. We have been holding our long bias since 89 level. DXY can go much higher from here is the momentum picks up further. However there are few levels on dollar index which you should be aware of. In our analysis we always look at both bearish and bullish scenarios so that we can plan our trades better and are aware of possible risks. In this DXY (Dollar/USD) Technical Analysis & Forecast, lets find out what dollar has been doing and what levels we should be aware of. On the bull side we have: 1. Inverse head and shoulders pattern 2. Double bottom 3. W pattern formation 4. Channel upper end level 5. Parabolic nature On the bear side we have: 1. FCP zones above ahead 2. Gaps left at the bottom which will get filled at some point sooner or later 3. Slightly over bought conditions Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:DXYLong
by vikinsa
2
DXY sell off to 93.5 AKA crypto commence! The US dollar has been in a frenzy for the past 30+ days. With the recent FED meeting it can be speculated that the end may be near for our beloved dollar. FED has stated it will start withdrawing its EMERGENCY funds. The inflation in talks is simply the corp finance worlds inability to recook an already cooked balance sheet. The word of the month is "transitory aka TRANSITION TO A STABLE COIN AKA CRYPTO WORLD. The 2nd word of the month is "tapering" aka the DUCK TAPE IS FALLING OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE BOAT (think flex seal commercial) Prepare to long XXXUSD and short USDXXX pairs. notice my MA about to cross (blue/ orange = bullish ) (orange/blue = bearish) last 4HR candle closed UNDER MA = more bearish confirmation 93.75 is a safe entry if you want to strictly trade DXY. may test 94.1 before the drop I am looking for DXY to take a liquid dip to 93.5 as there is clearly a point of lower support. DXY has failed to test the 94.6 key levels (last touched 9/28/20. In my eyes this is q4 crypto pumping DXY dumping time. ALTs on the breakout daily, BTC looking for the 75K mark ETH looking for the clear 5K mark.
TVC:DXYShort
by chestephens1
AUD/USD - US Federal Reserve will kick-start taperingHello Traders Here is a new SELL Scenario, Break of 0.7400 support opens door for a steeper decline, Taper discussion in November will influence USD soon. For a longer term, it can reach 0.73330 💹AUD/USD SELL STOP ✅ Entry @0.74600 or below ✅TP-1# 0.74400 ✅TP-2# 0.74200 ✅TP-3# 0.74050 ✅SL# 0.75600 JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
Short
by jamdejam
1
Has The USD Avoided The Dreaded Taper Tantrum?With its back up against a wall, the US Federal Reserve has pledged to begin tapering its asset purchase program. Beginning later this month, the Federal Reserve will reduce the number of US Treasury Securities it purchases each month by US $10 billion and the number of Mortgage-Backed Securities by US $5 billion. How did the USD react to the Federal Reserve announcement? By all accounts, a dreaded ‘taper tantrum’ has been avoided in the wake of the announcement. At least in relation to the forex market. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has been extremely careful to prime investors for this moment. For one, all hawkish commentary from the chairman has been mediated with dovish caveats. Admittedly, less senior Federal Reserve officials have done much of the leg work in hinting and out-right suggesting the need for a reduction in its purchases. Either way, the conversation surrounding tapering has been sustained for months, giving investors time to mull over the implications. As of writing, the USD index, the DXY has crossed back over the 94.00 mark and comfortable sits 94.33, up 0.53% since the Federal Reserve’s tapering announcement. Will the Federal Reserve continue to taper? The Federal Reserve will still be purchasing $105 billion worth of securities, with further reductions dependent on continuing favourable economic outlook. The Federal Reserve has indicated it is considering reducing spending, month over month, moving forward. However, if economic conditions deteriorate, the spending reductions could be nullified or reversed. The Federal Reserve will be keeping an eye on inflation and the number of jobs added to the economy each month. Inflation remains at a decade high A significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its reduction in spending is the US inflation rate. While it is at a 13-year high, the Federal Reserve maintains that most of the inflation experienced heretofore is temporary. Octobers inflation number is released next Wednesday. Trading Economics is forecasting a 0.1% increase in US inflation. Up next: Non-Farm Payroll Another significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its tapering is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). The NFP indicates how many non-farm jobs were added to the economy in a given month. The data for the October non-farm payroll will be released tonight to great anticipation. Trading Economics is forecasting 400K jobs, while the market consensus is a little more optimistic and is forecasting 450K jobs. The NFP has disappointed for the past two months, with actual job figures falling far short of the numbers predicted. Even so, the Federal Reserve has seen fit to begin tapering as job growth seemingly slows. Treasury Security Janet Yellen noted the US economy is still short 5 million jobs compared to pre-pandemic times, which will take the US years to recover at the current rate of job growth.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD: To new lowsEURUSD has been around a key level 1.16 for several weeks. Price couldn't break above the 1.17 level, going back down below the so called support level (1.16). Despite the fact that this zone hasn't been tested enough to consider it now a resistance, fundamentals might give us this impression. So what can we expect from the EURUSD: Fundamentals: Speculations are expecting Tapering process to be announced by Fed Jerome Powell tonight, lowering its spending on US investments. Starting TAPERING means starting a 6 to 7 month process in which the Federal Reserve suspends all of its financial assistance to support the US economy. The first effects will be on the USD ,Stock indices and Bond Yields, and finally the JPY and Gold. Normally, we can see the strengthening of the #USD and the weakness of other commodities and currencies. Technically: Price is around the 1.16 level. Double top might be forming, indicating the incapacity of the price to break previous highs and thus continuing its bearish overall trend to new lows.
Short
by Therealsmaira
Gold's weekly Bearish triangle (Update 3)Goodday traders and welcome to the last weekly update this year, The last 2 months of this year are going to be awesome. Extreme volatility and volumes are hitting the market like a hammer, and that is no surprise as there is so much at stake right now. For gold I expected to hit 1850 at least before FOMC, but that seems to be a bridge too far. Now we are nearing the big day and bulls might still hit 1850 if Powell sounds concerned about the bad GDP and the high inflation, but odds favor a bearish breakdown for gold after FOMC. We have FOMC on Wednesday, BoE (possible) rate hike on Thursday and NFP on Friday, so I am expecting a bearish week ahead in goldyland with some bullish retracements. For now I see a retest of 1802 as the main logical retracement point (so bears can get their H&S) with the bearflag break pointing at a test of the 1700 price. Bears might push for a 1680 break after that with next target 1650 (monthly lower BB). 🥁 Taper Tantrum Fundamentally tapering is very bearish for gold, but I don't expect the big guys will give it to us that easy. Expect some crazy moves up and down the coming 2 days to confuse everyone before the meltdown. As earlier mentioned, the only bullish scenario that I see, is if Powell shows concerns about the high inflation and the low GDP. So keep your ammunition to yourself until Wednesday to go all the way and collect some crazy pips. 🔮 Cesaro's Crystal Ball So what to expect this week? Well it's going to be a bumpy ride, that's for sure. $30-$40 candles will be no exception. Bulls have found support near the 50 DSMA, after they got rejected from the 200 DSMA several times. Today the bulls tested it again, and they will keep hammering it until Powell comes for the bearish rescue. For now I expect a retrace back to mid-1770's with the bulls' next target being 1802 & 1810. There is also a bullflag pointing at 1825, so they might pump it up more than expected. I will refrain from selling until the FOMC Press Conference and will wait for confirmation from Powell to sell this baby all the way to 1700, but we might hit 1650 before year end. That would be an amazing ride down south. Good luck this week and enjoy the mess! :)) Cheers, Cesaro
OANDA:XAUUSD
by CesaroPelucci
2
Apple ($AAPL) Price Forecasts for Upcoming FOMC MeetingDownward pressure, combined with increased volatility should push $AAPL down from it's current levels to at least the bottom of it's current channel over the course of the countdown to a concrete tapering schedule. Many believe the FOMC meeting on Sept. 22nd could be the formal announcement, as it would give the market enough time to adjust accordingly, however, as far as we know, the Fed has still not reached a consensus. As with most market news, whether the tapering announcement happens or not, volatility will increase over the next week and a half, so it's important to keep an eye on both general market sentiment and price action and position yourself accordingly. This is a great week to play the edges as we are almost guaranteed to have hard swings. Historically, the market has dropped 3-5% every time JPOW has spoken in in the past year. Besides a highly-likely bounce going into Monday (strictly due to the "rubber-band-effect" of being oversold locally from a haste sell off), $AAPL should continue to dip until the market knows the verdict from JPOW and the Fed. An assumption at this point in time for all forecasts is that the upcoming Apple event has already been priced in, not only due to "buying the rumor" but also FAANG-M's massive "safe-haven" run-up over the past few months. The highest projected price has been labeled in the rare case Apple knocks it out of the park with their event or institutions want to induce FOMO in an unforgiving market. Overall market sentiment will most likely see through Apple's attempt to minimize the chip shortage and unless the future outlook can justify a sustained support channel, any pump should be short lived. For logic and reasoning behind the forecasts trajectories, I have labeled each with assumed situations that could cause them, which includes pivot points, TA, fundamentals, historical price action, etc. NOTE: This is NOT Financial Advice. Strictly for information purposes only. I know nothing and am nobody. I just draw pretty graphs and read an 8-ball.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by ZephyrFinance
3
gold and taper. retail trader vs insiderprice has made its rising wedge chart pattern after downtrend from 1834 the whole trend was started from 1900 on June fomc are hedge funds back to sell again for fomc taper announcement ? are they insider seller for fed tapering announcement , selling gold from 1900, 1834 ? based on price action and Elliott wave , (impulse correction impulse) ✔ trend started from 1834 has made its counter trend correction ✔ it has tested upper trend line ✔ it is in its final wave E ✔ breakout of lower trend line make confirmation of down trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by IndianFX
falling wedgeprice is making lower low lower high inside a yellow falling wedge. price is testing upper trend line. Fundamental cause of this trend is fed tapering. decline was started in march and tapering talking has been increasing everyday since price made high. if price holds upper trendline and tapering comes in November fomc than it will test lower trend line of chart pattern because previous trend was started with fed QE and this trend is stared in anticipation of fed QT
Short
by Sangam-Agarwal
CADJPY Massive drop expected 1000pips +Hello Traders Here is a new Sell Opportunity, huge drop expected 1000pips + 💹CAD/JPY ⏬SELL ✅ Entry @91.000 or below ✅TP-1# 90.000 ✅TP-2# 89.000 ✅TP-3# 88.000 ✅SL# 91.800 My Forecast : This Pair Will fall with a big drop after a correction around 91.000 JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals If you like this idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. Don't hesitate to write comments.
Short
by jamdejam
What is your opinion of the current and upcoming trend for BTC?Here you can see I am a slow and patient bear who ate his oatmeal and slept away Q4 & Q1 For all the stores were bear as well, So I bought moar oatmeal. DXY looks like oatmeal Not that I know anything ser's........ I like oatmeal Me can only buy me oatmeal with DXY Not really feeling like explaining this........I'm sure me shall be shamed for loving me oatmeal moar than me bloatmeal. BTC Earth Or Moon? Leave a Comment Below
BNC:BLXShort
by ILL_Midas
1
Financial ETF Is Squeezing HigherThe SPDR Financial ETF broke out to record highs in February, stalled in June and has been resting since. Now it may be getting ready for another move. The first pattern on this chart is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). After dancing around this line for almost four months, XLF has managed to hold above it since the end of September. That’s especially noteworthy because, aside from SPDR Energy , every other major sector ETF is under its respective 50-day SMA. (Along with the entire S&P 500.) Next, the last bounce represented a higher low than the September 20 trough. That also contrasts with the broader SPX, which made a lower low. Switching to the weekly chart, notice that XLF rebounded so quickly from the first drop that it formed a bullish outside week: The macro backdrop may also support financials because the yield curve is steepening as rates increase. Several big names, including JPMorgan Chase , Bank of America and Goldman Sachs report next week. XLF may need a little more time given weakness in the broader market. But as long prices hold the 50-day SMA, traders may look for the trend to continue. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
AMEX:XLFLong
by TradeStation
GOLD : To buy or not to buy...that is the questionJust want to share some thoughts about Gold price. 2008 to 2011 show an high rise in prices. Why? - 01 Nov 2004 started one of very first valuable ETF for Gold : SPDR GOLD TRUST. - 2008 Real Estate frenzy showed up with a vertical dangerous FOMO culminated with the biggest worst market loss ever - From 2008 to about 2011 Gold prices roses to new ATH, about 1840$ What contribute to Gold price rise? Who know... maybe ETF, maybe searching for some stability, maybe high yields. Can we forecast another Gold rise? Maybe yes... - March 2020 : big drop on all market + Lockdown everywhere - 2020-2021 : big pump with market FOMO about selling and buying power worldwide. A lot of "free cash" printed to rise buying power. Doesn't it look as crazy as Real Estate "before crisis"? - October - November - December 2021 : big drop in front of us? There are a lot of rumors about political stability, limited shortage, minor earnings gains, tapering, rising of yields. So what? My personal short term target for Gold are between 1300$ and 1700$. I'm not interested on own "real gold" but more on some good Gold ETF, easier to manage. And in case you are wondering what if BTC will have a paired ETF like happened to Gold? My personal view on BTC is that needs to touch a very low area to kick off major useless players like MicroStrategy, Ark Invest, Tesla and so on. All those people around BTC try only to maxime BTC value to sell at higher prices for scam small retailers. So BTC needs to reset itself before a new good normal ATH. I'm not a quite fan of BTC, with his old technology, low transactions speed and a lot of FOMO build around it. However... all blockchain system can be credited to BTC, so I could reconsider it if something interesting will happen in next future on Crypto planet. Maybe not this year, neither next... There are a lot of things that can be related to Gold prices in same periods like : BTC prices OIL prices YIELD value SP500 prices You can read others idea I've wrote about correlation between stocks/index on my profile. Not financial advice, only my idea. Do Your Reasearch always before investing or trading
TVC:GOLDLong
by STABLECOINS_GURU
2
GOLD: the effects of tapering (Bernanke 2013 vs Powell 2021)Hi Guys, to keep it simple... Financial Crisis 2007-2008 and Pandemic led to the implementations of QE programmes in combination with other accomodative monetary policies. Following these events FEAR drove the value of Gold to its highest at $2.000 both in 2011 and in 2020. In both these occasions, after having reached $2000, the precious metal bounced off the support to unfold lower highs to form what may look like descending triangles. In 2013 the support was finally broken when Ben Bernanke announced a "tapering" of some of the Fed's QE policies contingent upon continued positive economic data. Specifically, he said that the Fed could scale back its bond purchases from $85 billion to $65 billion a month during the upcoming FED policy meeting. On Sept.22nd, 2021 Jerome Powell said tapering of bond buying coming "soon". Can you see the similarities? Will Gold react the same way as it did back in 2013? It seems too easy to be true. LOL. Hope the above is of interest but if you have any queries please do not hesitate to ask. Good luck everybody! Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by cozzamara