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Tariffs

EURUSD: Trump’s trade war crosses the Atlantic You may be sick of hearing about tariffs, but they are currently the catalyst for a huge amount of volatility in the market and a huge amount of trading opportunities. And now Trump’s trade war has crossed the Atlantic Today, the European Union announced retaliatory tariffs on approximately €26 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump's recent increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Targeted products include Harley-Davidsons, bourbon, and jeans—key American exports that have been caught in previous trade disputes. The EU has said it remains open to negotiation but has not ruled out further action. In response, Trump vowed to retaliate, stating, “Of course I’m going to respond.” The daily chart for the EUR/USD shows the pair could fall into a larger corrective decline, given overbought RSI conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
International politics is now a high school dramaSo, Trump was all like, “Let’s slap an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum,” which meant total duties shot up to 50%. Why? Because Ontario put a 25% tax on electricity exports to the U.S. And Doug Ford? He was not having it—saying he’d “respond appropriately” and “not back down.” But —he totally backed down and scrapped the tax on electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota. And now, Trump just ditched the extra 25% tariff, and boom— USDCAD broke below the recent low of 1.43986
by BlackBull_Markets
Is Trump’s Golden Age a Recession in the Making? Let’s Find Out“This tariff low key slaps,” says no trader ever as markets get jerked and jolted day in and day out because no one can really figure out what’s happening. On some days, US President Donald Trump wakes up and chooses to slap a tariff or two on America’s closest and biggest allies. On other days, he goes for the pardon. Turns out, investors don’t really like it. Stock markets left and right wiggled to the point they couldn’t take it anymore — the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC dived into correction territory last week. That is, the index plunged more than 10% from its most recent peak, which was a record high. Even though Friday was a good day for stocks, the S&P 500 SP:SPX closed out its worst week since September, wiping off 3.1%. Zoom out and you get an S&P 500 that’s barely holding above the flatline since the election. In other words, more than $3 trillion has been washed out from the Wall Street darling since it hit a record high in late February. Where Do We Stand on Tariffs Now? So where has the dizzying labyrinth of tariffs landed? And is that final? (No, it’s not.) Trump last week declared that there’s simply “no room left” for Canada and Mexico to bargain over a deal or even a delay. That’s a 25% levy taking effect right there. A day later it was no more — a month-long reprieve for carmakers was introduced. Then a day later, Trump suspended the 25% levy on almost all goods from its closest neighbors. To this, Trump said that the “big” wave of tariffs is coming in early April to a bunch of countries, including the European Union. Right now, only China’s 20% tariff remains in place. The roller-coaster ride around who gets slapped with what has sent the dollar TVC:DXY in a freefall — so much so that the markets have started to chat about a “Trumpcession,” (not something you’d like to have your name on). That is, some traders and investors expect Trump’s policies to tip the American economy into a recession. Swirling fears of a downturn came right as the Federal Reserve apparently managed to stick the soft landing — Jay Powell and his clique of central bankers lowered inflation through interest rate cuts while the economy continued to grow without nosediving into a downturn. A side worry of the tariffs (with very real front-and-center consequences) is a pullback from the Federal Reserve on its rate-cutting campaign. Analysts are quick to say that the US central bank won’t be looking to trim borrowing costs any time soon. Not with all that White House noise threatening to derail consumer confidence and dent corporate profits and revenue. Apparently, the huge wave of uncertainty around Trump’s tariff agenda, centered on isolation and protectionism, is making global investors nervous. In this context, how are you navigating the sea change? What’s your portfolio showing and how do you feel about growth prospects ahead? Share you thoughts in the comment section and let’s chat!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
58
EUR/USD keeps rolling after ECB rate cutThe euro has posted strong gains on Friday after taking a pause a day earlier.  EUR/USD is trading at 1.0858 in the European session, up 0.69% on the day.  It's been a remarkable week for the euro, which has soared 4.7% against the US dollar. The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points on Thursday in a widely-expected decision.  This brings the deposit rate to 2.5%, its lowest level since Dec. 2022.  The central bank has been aggressive in its easing cycle, slashing rates by 185 basis points in just nine months. The rate reduction was no surprise and is being described as the "last easy cut".  Inflation is running at a 2.4% clip, above the ECB's 2% target but low enough to deliver rate hikes in order to boost the flagging economy. What's next for the ECB is a tricky question, especially with economic and political developments moving at a dizzying pace. First, the new Trump administration hasn't wasted any time in imposing (and in some cases, suspending) tariffs, which has chilled investor sentiment and sent equity markets tumbling. The US hasn't applied tariffs to the European Union although it has threatened to do so.  The EU would surely retaliate and a trade war between the two giant economies will damage growth and raise inflation in the eurozone. Second, Trump is showing growing impatience with Ukraine and has suspended military aid. Germany has responded by easing its fiscal spending rules and has proposed a massive spending scheme for defense and infrastructure. This has sent German bond yields and the euro soaring. ECB President Lagarde said after the ECB meeting that the situation was changing "dramatically" by the day and the ECB would need to be "extremely vigilant" and "agile". She reiterated that future rate decisions would be based on the data. The US wraps up the week with the February employment report. Nonfarm payrolls sank to 143 thousand in January from 256 thousand a month earlier.  The market estimate for February stands at 160 thousand. A surprise in either direction from nonfarm payrolls would likely have a significant impact on the direction of the US dollar. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0801 and 1.0837 and is putting pressure on resistance at 1.0889.  Above, there is resistance at 1.0925 1.0749 and 1.0713 are the next support lines
by OANDA
US Dollar Is Falling ImpulsivelyTrump tariffs and trade wars continue to dominate the market, and we have seen a strong sell-off in the US dollar recently. This reinforces the idea that the US may not win this battle easily, as some other countries have already responded and are trying to hit back. So it’s not a surprise that in this uncertainty stocks are also in a consolidation, but approaching a potential support. Finally the USD is coming down, now breaking some key support at 106 which is an important indication for a resumption of a downtrend, especially if we consider that the current sell-off is sharp and can be third of a third wave. So, a bearish trend can stay in play for much lower levels, mainly because Tariffs are delayed again, until April 2nd. Markets are stabilizing and recovering, while USDollar - DXY remains under bearish pressure with space for more weakness. Risk-On sentiment back?
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
USD/MXN: Mexico plans response to US tariffs The White House confirmed a one-month exemption for autos under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), following President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. The exemption has significant consequences for Mexico’s economy, with tariffs expected to add billions in costs for automakers that rely on Mexican production. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum plans to discuss tariffs with Trump on Thursday, before her government announces countermeasures on Sunday. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator initially showed a potential bullish signal as moving averages crossed upward. However, momentum appears to be fading, and the pair has yet to retest its February 3rd highs.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/CAD holds up OK despite tariffsOK, so it's finally happened. On March 4, 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy products facing a separate 10% tariff. Tariffs on Chinese imports were also doubled from 10% to 20%. In response, Canada imposed immediate 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion worth of U.S. goods, with plans to extend them to another CA$125 billion in the coming weeks. While USD/CAD maintained a steady upward movement, it is difficult to characterize the move as a broad-based selloff. Maybe this is more of a trade scuffle than a trade war right now? China announced additional tariffs of 10% to 15% on U.S. agricultural products, effective March 10. Mexico is set to announce its own retaliatory tariffs on March 9. Now, the focus shifts to Trump’s next move. He has already suggested he will reciprocate the reciprocation. Where does this end? Full blown trade war? Meanwhile, reports suggest he is considering easing sanctions on Russia.
by BlackBull_Markets
RBA minutes hawkish, Aussie edges higherThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Tuesday.  AUD/USD is trading at 0.6243 in the European session, up 0.28% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from the February meeting reiterated the central bank's cautious stance.  The meeting marked a milestone as the RBA pressed the rate-cut trigger for the first time in four years, after maintaining the cash rate at 4.35% for over a year.  The decision was a "hawkish cut" with a message for the markets not to expect a series of rate cuts. In the minutes, members said the rate cut did not "commit them to further rate cuts", a warning that the easing cycle could be short.  The RBA remains concerned about inflation even though it has dropped to 2.4%, in the mid-range of the RBA's target band of 2%-3%.  Governor Bullock has said that the RBA is keeping a close eye on the labor market, which has been resilient and not supportive of further rate cuts. Another headache for the RBA is the threat of US tariffs, in particular the specter of another US-China trade war.  Both countries have imposed new tariffs on the other, and a damaging trade war would hurt Australia's export industry, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. Australia's retail sales posted a turnaround in January, with a gain of 0.3% m/m.  This matched the market estimate and followed the 0.1% decline in December.  The driver of the gain was food-related spending and most sub-categories showed an increase in spending.  The outlook for consumer spending has improved, with the RBA rate cut, the drop in inflation and cuts to income tax. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6228.  Above, there is resistance at 0.6251 0.6200 and 0.6177 are providing support
by OANDA
Oil Drops Below $68 Amid Trade Wars and Oversupply RisksCrude Oil drops on oversupply risks and weakening demand expectations Key Events: - Trade wars between the world’s largest economies heightens inflation and economic contraction risks - OPEC plans to unwind supply cuts in April despite oversupply concerns. - Trump - Ukraine dispute may disrupt oil's bearish trend if tensions escalate with the EU and Russia. Key Levels: Oil eyes a 4-year support zone ($63.80–$66), and the potential for the consolidation to extend above that zone persists. - A close below $63.80 may extend declines to $61.50, $60, and $55 (aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 uptrend. - A hold above $68.80 could cap gains at $70.50, $73.50, and $75. Upside potential on Oil is expected to remain short-lived given the bearish implications of trade wars in tandem with oil's 2022 - 2025 dominant downtrend. A clean close above 78-80 zone may reinforce longer term bullish expectations. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
So far, so good... WTI oil price continues to please the bears. So far, the our stance is unchanged, we remain somewhat bearish on the price of MARKETSCOM:OIL in the near-term. That said, certain criteria still need to be met for us to get comfortable with further declines, especially from the technical side. Let's dig in! TVC:USOIL Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by Marketscom
GBP/CAD Analysis – Key Levels & Trade Scenarios📊 Timeframe: Weekly (1W) | Current Price: ~1.8391 📈 Bullish Context: Resistance at 1.8391: Price is testing a strong supply zone (dark red area). A breakout above this level could open the door to further upside. Support at 1.8233 & 1.7677: 1.8233: Short-term support where buyers have stepped in. 1.7677: Major support level, previously tested multiple times. 📉 Current Outlook: Price has aggressively moved up, breaking through previous resistances. Approaching a critical resistance area, where rejection is possible. If a rejection occurs, a retracement toward 1.8233 or 1.7677 could be seen. 📈 Trade Setups: 🔼 Long (Breakout Play): Entry: Above 1.8400 with confirmation. Target 1: 1.8600 Target 2: 1.8800 Stop Loss: Below 1.8230 to avoid fakeouts. 🔻 Short (Rejection Scenario): Entry: Bearish rejection from 1.8391 with confirmation. Target 1: 1.8233 Target 2: 1.7677 Stop Loss: Above 1.8450. 📌 Final Thoughts: GBP/CAD is at a critical resistance; a breakout could lead to new highs. A rejection would confirm a pullback toward support levels. Key macroeconomic data may impact momentum and direction.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
DXY Holds Above 106, Currency Markets at Risk?The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm above the 106-mark, applying pressure on the latest currency market rebound amid escalating tariff and trade war concerns. With the first wave of tariffs on Canada and Mexico set to take effect in early March, Trump's renewed tariff threats against the EU are further strengthening the Dollar's stance. This has kept the EURUSD capped below 1.0530 and GBPUSD struggling at 1.27. Friday’s key inflation reports—including the German Prelim CPI and US Core PCE—are expected to introduce additional volatility risks. 🔻 Downside Scenario: A break below 106, aligning with June 2024 highs, could expose the next support at 1.0520, coinciding with the upper boundary of the declining channel connecting lower highs from October 2023 to June 2024. Further declines could see DXY testing 104 and 102.20, aligning with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. 🔺 Upside Scenario: A solid close above 107.30 could reignite bullish momentum, pushing DXY towards the 2025 high of 110, potentially derailing the currency market’s 2025 rebound. - Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
1
Bitcoin Slips: Buy the Lows or Ride the Sell-Off? Following an extended expanding consolidation from Dec 2024 – Jan 2025, bearish pressure intensified after a downside breakout, increasing the probability of a double-top formation at 108,360 – 109,350. This raises concerns about a potential drop towards the previous major support-turned-resistance zone at 72,000 – 74,000. 🔹 Momentum Check: The RSI has hit oversold levels last seen in Aug 2024, when BTCUSD found a bottom before rallying past 100K. 🔸 Bullish Scenario: If BTCUSD holds above 82,000, upside targets include 86,500, 93,000, and potentially a retest of 109,000. 🔻 Bearish Scenario: A close below 82,000 could accelerate declines toward 79,500 & 72,000, aligning with the 50% & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Aug 2024 – Jan 2025 uptrend. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:BTCUSD
by FOREXcom
EURUSD 27 Feb 2025 W9 - Intraday Analysis - US GDP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Heavy economic news: US: Durable Goods Orders - GDP - Initial Jobless Claims - Pending Home Sales The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Swept ii-High Liq.) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Is the Bearish INT structure still intact?! This is the 1st scenario of the current 4H Bullish Swing PB. INT Structure still Bearish and we reached the INT Structure Extreme and now failing to break the Weak Swing High (Not confirmed yet, we need at least a Bearish ii-BOS) and LTFs started to show weakness that may support this scenario. 🔹Currently price had swept the Liq. above the Weak ii-High and created a bearish CHoCH. 🔹With that failure to break the Weak High, the low that failed to break the high is now the target. With that low having Liq. below and above the unmitigated 4H Demand, there is a probability that we may mitigate the 4H Demand after taking the Liq. reside above to continue Bullish if and only if price started to show Bullish on LTFs where its going to have Bullish Structures. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Liq. above the unmitigated 4H Demand and maybe after we will have the Bullish continuation from the current move is looking for more Liq. to target the Weak Swing High. 🔹Also, keep in mind that today is having US Volatile new and tomorrow is the most awaited US PCE report where will have high volatility. (It’s always the rule of investors positioning before high volatile reports) 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swept Liq. above Weak Swing High 2️⃣ 🔹With the INT structure turned Bearish yesterday in LDN session, this indicated that there is weakness in the 15m Swing continuation. 🔹Also, with Trump talk yesterday on Tariffs, this didn’t help price to hold Bullish and formed another Bearish iBOS after failing to break the Weak Swing High and just swept the Liq. above and confirmed Bearish INT structure. 🔹With failure to break the Weak Swing High, there is a HP that price will target the Low that failed to break the Swing High. The low that failed to break the high is having Liq. below above the 4H Demand where if price to keep the 15m Swing Bullish, this is the zone where we will see Bullish continuation from. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set to continue Bearish as intraday targeting the Liq. below the lows and mitigating the 4H Demand for maybe a Bullish continuation later after confirmation.
by Amr-Sadek
Now it’s an EU trade war Trump wantsDonald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on the European Union, bizarrely stating that the 27-member bloc was “formed to screw the United States.” Without providing further details, he hinted at targeting carmakers, saying, “We have made a decision and we’ll be announcing it very soon.” The EU has vowed to retaliate immediately if the tariffs take effect. EUR/USD tested resistance around 1.0536 before sellers stepped in around the time of Trump's announcement. The pair remains under pressure, trading below the 50-day EMA, while the 200-day EMA is flattening, offering a potential target besides the 38 and 50% Fibonacci levels on the chart.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD 26 Feb 2025 W9 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Today economic news: No Major economic news scheduled today. The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With this week open, price continued Bullish as expected and created another ii-BOS after which price started PB for the ii-BOS and reached the recent Demand which we could see the next Bullish move from. 3️⃣ 🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase 2️⃣ 🔹After the 15m Bullish BOS, price initiated the Swing PB Phase. 🔹Price reached the 15m Swing EQ (50%) and turned Bullish after the INT structure changed to Bullish iBOS indicating that the Swing PB maybe over and we are currently starting the Swing Bullish continuation Phase. 🔹As price continued Bullish yesterday with Bullish iBOS. Currently with the recent iBOS we started the pullback and reached the INT structure extreme Demand where price can start the INT structure Bullish continuation and target the Weak INT High and ultimately the Weak 15m Swing High. 🔹If price failed to hold the INT structure Bullish and Turned Bearish, there is a high probability that we will continue Bearish based on the DXY PB Phase on 4H (PB after Bearish iBOS) and price may target the Strong 15m Swing Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish with the 15m / 4H INT & Swing are all Bullish while also cautious about the possibility of price to turn Bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 25 Feb 2025 W9 -Intraday Analysis- US Consumer ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Today economic news: US : Consumer Confidence The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With this week open, price continued Bullish as expected and created another ii-BOS after which price started PB for the ii-BOS and reached the recent Demand which we could see the next Bullish move from. 3️⃣ 🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase 2️⃣ 🔹After the 15m Bullish BOS, price initiated the Swing PB Phase. 🔹Price reached the 15m Swing EQ (50%) and turned Bullish after the INT structure changed to Bullish iBOS indicating that the Swing PB maybe over and we are currently starting the Swing Bullish continuation Phase. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish with the 15m / 4H INT & Swing are all Bullish. 🔹Price targets are 15m Weak INT High and ultimately 15m Weak Swing High.
by Amr-Sadek
Gold NEW ATH to $2,954?! (1H UPDATE)Gold on the 4H TF is within its final Wave 5 bullish move, there’s no arguing with that. The only thing to debate is how high can Wave 5 push up before reversing? While it’s possible that Wave 5 has now peaked at $2,942 & ready for a major correction, on the 1H TF I see a small possibly of it creating a new ATH toward $2,954. HIGH RISK TRADE. Confluences👇🏻 ⭕️Distribution Schematic Taking Place Between Wave 3 High, Wave 4 Low & Wave 5 High. ⭕️Wave E Rejected From Psychological Number Of $2,940 (LQ Trap). ⭕️No Strong Sell Off Yet To Indicate A Reversal Has Started.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
EURUSD 20 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - US Unemployment ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Some USA economic news today: US : Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) 🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Minor Supply is holding and demand is failing to facilitate the INT-INT Bullish structure Pullback which reached the structure EQ (50%). 3️⃣ 🔹After the Bullish ii-BOS, price pulled in a corrective PA to the structure EQ (50%) and currently within the Daily Demand. 🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures. 🔹Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount. 🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback. 🔹Technically Shorts is the straight forward play (Played very well yesterday as per expectations and executions), but keep in mind that the Bearish INT structures task is to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback and we are currently in the Swing Discount Zone and if the Swing is going to continue Bullish, there is a high probability that the INT Structure is going to shift Bullish. 3️⃣ 🔹It’s a crossroads! Expectations is for price to turn Bullish and create a Bullish INT structure to confirm the Swing Pullback is over and the start of the Swing Bullish continuation Phase (Bullish iBOS for confirmation). 🔹Will be looking for longs after Bullish iBOS. As for Shorts, not in my interest currently based on where we are within the 115m Swing (Discount)/15m & 4H Demand even with the INT structure is Bearish.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 18 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - EU ZEW /US ManufacturingThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Some light economic news today along with the US Markets are back after long weekend. EUR : ZEW Economic Sentiment US : Empire State Manufacturing Index The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis. Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play. 🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed). 3️⃣ 🔹Currently price is targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCK) above the recent demand which could provide Bullish continuation. 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ 🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase. 🔹After the recent Swing BOS, we expect a pullback which is confirmed with the 15m Bearish iBOS today. 🔹With the Bearish iBOS we confirm the 15m pullback phase to Swing EQ (50%)/ Discount. 3️⃣ 🔹As price on the 4H is currently targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCH), expectations today is to continue Bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback to Swing Discount and mitigate the 4H/15m Demand before continuing Bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
2025 Market Outlook - Cautiously Bullish (Important Bar Counts)Hey Everybody, Thanks for checking out the video. I'm reviewing all major instruments, US and Non US. US has carried the financial markets since 2020 and 2022 and this year out of the gate we're seeing big runs in "uninvestable" spaces like Europe and China. I say that jokingly because of how bad everything thought non US assets were, but here we are watching DAX, FTSE, and HSI running to double digit gains while the US lags behind. Will the US catch up and the global economy tide rise to lift all boats or are we truly seeing a catch up trade that will have headwinds uncertainties a plenty? Time will tell. This week is a holiday shortened trading week, RBA and RBNZ expected to cut rates, Europe and US printing PMI on Friday. BABA and BIDU earnings this week (China related), and NVDA earnings next week (#2 market cap in US). I discuss the big bar counts that I'm watching closely on SPY, SPX, XSP, RSP, NDX, QQQ, DIA, NVDA, META, NFLX, and others that I believe technically will matter for limited upside momentum without a bigger pause, snapback or correction ahead. Cautiously optimistic is a perfect play for 2025. I'm off to a good start for the year and intend to keep that way without chasing or doing anything silly. Thank for watching.
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
Can Soybeans Survive the Global Trade Chessboard?In the intricate game of international trade politics, soybeans have emerged as pivotal pieces on the global economic chessboard. The soybean industry faces a critical juncture as nations like the European Union and China implement protectionist strategies in response to US policies. This article delves into how these geopolitical moves are reshaping the future of one of America's most significant agricultural exports, challenging readers to consider the resilience and adaptability required in today's volatile trade environment. The European Union's decision to restrict US soybean imports due to the use of banned pesticides highlights a growing trend towards sustainability and consumer health in global trade. This move impacts American farmers and invites us to ponder the broader implications of agricultural practices on international commerce. As we witness these shifts, the question arises: How can the soybean industry innovate to meet global standards while maintaining its economic stronghold? China's strategic response, which targets influential American companies like PVH Corp., adds complexity to the global trade narrative. The placement of a major U.S. brand on China's 'unreliable entity' list highlights the power dynamics involved in international commerce. This situation prompts us to consider the interconnectedness of economies and the potential for unforeseen alliances or conflicts. What strategies can businesses implement to navigate these challenging circumstances? Ultimately, the soybean saga is more than a tale of trade disputes; it's a call to action for innovation, sustainability, and strategic foresight in the agricultural sector. As we watch this unfold, we are inspired to question not just the survival of soybeans but the very nature of global economic relationships in an era where every move on the trade chessboard can alter the game. How will the soybean industry, and indeed, international trade, evolve in response to these challenges?
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by UDIS_View