Get started

Tariffs

How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines. The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%. But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile. How to Trade This New Market The main lesson for traders and investors is clear: We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt: Stay Nimble and News-Aware Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements. Rethink Your Safe Havens The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar. Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines. Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
TVC:DXY
by Jacques1000
1
Front-loaded Exports has fuelled rally in Corn. Can it last?After President Trump instituted broad new tariffs on 2nd April 2025, corn futures initially wavered but then rallied sharply. While this may seem counterintuitive given tariffs' disruptive impact on trade, near-term support for corn comes from front-loaded U.S. exports, a weaker dollar, and lower-than-expected domestic supply. However, prices are likely to face downward pressure as the U.S. harvest season approaches. This paper examines the short-term bullish factors, outlines the potential risks ahead, and presents a hypothetical trade setup involving a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures. CME Corn futures gapped lower on 3rd April but quickly recovered, jumping 4.5% over the next three trading days to six-week highs by 9th April. This move aligns with the typical spring seasonal trend, as corn often firms in late spring during planting & strong demand season. Surging Export Commitments Amid Tariffs Export commitments have surged post-tariff announcement. USDA reports that U.S. exporters had already booked about 85% of the 2024/25 season target by early April, according to Reuters , well above the 5‐year average. In the week ending 3rd April, net U.S. corn sales hit ~40.2 million bushels, reflecting heavy front-loading. Large private sales continue: for example, in early April exporters announced a 9.4-million-bushel sale of 2024/25 corn to Spain. These front-loaded sales (especially to Mexico & Europe) suggest buyers are rushing to secure supply before possible trade disruptions. Overall, extraordinarily strong export pace and large “flash” sales are underpinning the market. Supply is Weaker than Initially Thought USDA’s April WASDE cut U.S. 2024/25 ending stocks to just 1.465 billion bushels – a 75 million bushels reduction – implying a stocks/use ratio around 9.6%. For context, that ratio is near multi-decade lows for corn. The USDA simultaneously raised exports to 2.55 billion bushels, a full 100 million bushels above the previous estimate. On the supply side, USDA’s Prospective Plantings (March 2025) projected 95.3 million corn acres for 2025, roughly 5% higher than 2024, above expectations (highlighted by Mint Finance in a previous paper ). This suggests that while near-term stocks remain stressed the situation is likely to improve drastically following the harvest. Weaker Dollar Supports Increased Corn Exports A key bullish factor for U.S. corn exports is the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar. After the tariff announcement, the trade-weighted dollar tumbled – hitting fresh lows (e.g. a 10-year low versus the Swiss franc). Through April 10, the dollar was down ~2–3% on the week. A weaker dollar makes U.S. corn cheaper for overseas buyers, supporting export competitiveness. With dollar at multi-year lows, U.S. corn is more attractive globally, partly offsetting any Chinese retaliatory tariffs. COT and Options Data Managed-money funds have dramatically pared back their long corn bets since the beginning of March. CFTC COT data show net long positions peaking around 364,000 contracts in early February, then plunging to ~54,000 by the 8th April report. However, the pace of decline has slowed dramatically over the past few weeks and seems to be signalling an end of the cutback by asset managers. Interestingly, despite the tariff introduction (2/April) and the WASDE release (10/April), implied volatility (IV) moderated. IV has since normalized from the spike observed in March. During this period, skew also declined, reaching a negative value on 8th April - indicating that put options briefly became more expensive than calls. Although this trend has since reversed, skew remains near its lowest levels in 2025, suggesting sustained interest in put options among market participants. Source: CME CVOL OI shift over the past week also signals a cautious tone despite the rally. Near term options have seen an increase in put OI, suggesting participants remain cautious despite the rally. Source: CME QuikStrike Hypothetical Trade Setup While bullish factors have driven a sharp rally in corn prices over the past two weeks, there are dark clouds on the horizon. Tariffs risk disrupting trade and as most importers have already loaded up on US corn, they could slow the pace of future purchases. Additionally, a downbeat seasonal trend along with an expected bumper harvest signal that prices could reverse sharply from here. On the technical front, momentum remains solidly bullish but approaching a potential overbought level amid a slowing bullish trend. Corn prices remain pressured from a bumper harvest expected in September. Along with expected trade disruptions and a slowdown in the pace of US exports, prices are likely to decline during the summer. Regardless, prices remain bullish in the near term from a weakening dollar and near-term front loading. To express views on these converging trends, investors can deploy a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures consisting of a long position on the near-term May contract (MZCK2025) and a short position on the September contract (MZCU2025). A hypothetical trade setup providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.8x is mentioned below: A calendar spread on CME Micro Corn Futures is highly capital efficient with the above trade requiring maintenance margin of just USD 23 as of 15/April. The position remains protected from near-term price increase but benefits from the eventual price decline in September during harvest season. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:MZC1!
by mintdotfinance
Dell Technologies (NYSE: $DELL) Stock Gains on Tariff ReliefDell Technologies Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:DELL ) rose sharply on Monday following the Trump administration’s temporary suspension of tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics. The updated guidance from U.S. Customs and Border Protection late Friday excluded these items from the latest round of reciprocal tariffs, which had raised concerns among tech manufacturers. Dell shares gained 4%, closing at $85.19, up $3.26 on the day, with a trading volume of 12.35 million shares. The stock had opened at $89.29 and reached a low of $84.01 during the session. The tariff pause, though potentially temporary, has eased pressure on companies that heavily rely on global supply chains. Dell, which produces most of its hardware outside the United States, stands to benefit significantly from the exemption. JPMorgan analysts commented that the exemption highlights the strategic importance of electronics to American consumers and the economic weight of companies like Dell and Apple. While Apple is accelerating its manufacturing diversification into countries like India and Vietnam, Dell continues to leverage international production capacity to maintain its competitiveness. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, DELL is currently trading within a descending channel that started from its all-time high of $179.70. The recent bounce from a support zone indicates potential short-term support. The price action suggests two likely scenarios: a continued climb toward the upper boundary of the channel near $110, or a pullback to test lower levels around $42, aligned with the bottom of the channel. The 200-day moving average (86.18) and 100-day (116.72)currently sit above the price, indicating a bearish medium-term trend. However, if DELL holds support around $85.11 and gains momentum, it could challenge the mid-channel resistance and eventually attempt a breakout.
NYSE:DELLLong
by DEXWireNews
NASDAQ Futures Long Setup: Pullback Entry After Tariff BoostMarket Outlook – April 13, 2025 Quick recap: In my last public analysis, I mentioned watching the 18,350–18,000 zone for signs of support — a level stacked with confluence (50–61.8% Fib, EMA, VWAP, pivot). Price broke down deeper than expected but responded beautifully: ✅ Tagged 18,000 almost to the tick ✅ Rejected hard at the 61.8 Fib ✅ Respected the 50 Fib on the way back up All solid signs of strength. Now with tariff exemptions announced today (bullish for tech/Nasdaq), I’m opening the door to more long setups this week. Here’s What I’m Watching: 🔹 Scenario A: Pullback into the 18,575–18,500 zone (first dotted white line). If price reclaims structure or gives me something clean — EMA bounce, VWAP tag, candle pattern — I’ll look for longs. 🔹 Scenario B: If that level breaks or I miss the first shot, I’ll look for a second chance around 18,000–18,300. Same deal: not jumping in blindly, waiting for a setup to form. To be clear — these are areas of interest, not automatic trades. I want clean structure and confirmation before entering. Let’s see how it plays out. Will update if/when I take a position. Stay sharp. 📈
CME_MINI:MNQM2025Long
by natron
ECB decision shadowed by tariff risk Markets will be closely watching the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on April 17, with expectations for a seventh consecutive rate cut. Despite this expectation, the euro surged to a three-year high against the US dollar last week, as traders continued to pull away from US assets. The dollar index has dropped 4% since President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2, falling below the key 100 level too. At this stage, market participants will be looking for any signals on how the ECB might respond to the potential spillover effects of President Trump’s tariff measures. While some guidance may emerge around already-announced policies, the risk of further unpredictability remains high. Trump being Trump, it is perhaps unlikely we have seen the last of his volatility-inducing tariff announcements. This can weigh further on the dollar, eroding confidence in the world’s reserve currency.
by BlackBull_Markets
Another market manipulation. It is spiraling out of control!I’m not here to express political opinions, but let’s be real—the Trump family launching meme coins, rugging retail investors, and manipulating markets is spiraling out of control. 💥 $TRUMP and $MELANIA were just the beginning. Today, we witnessed what could be the biggest market manipulation in history, and it was executed with textbook precision: Step one: float a fake news headline to test the market reaction. Step two: publish a deliberately confusing statement where Trump says everything and its opposite. Many misunderstood it as a “90-day tariff pause.” 🕛 The timing? The announcement dropped at 12:30 PM EST—midnight in Asia, and 7 PM in Europe, when banks and institutions were closed. 🎯 Only the U.S. was awake and able to buy the pump. Everyone else? Left sidelined. No politician in modern history has manipulated global markets to this extent. It’s turning Wall Street into a Las Vegas casino for the elite. To make matters worse, Trump even tweeted a sarcastic: “It’s a great day to buy stocks.” 🧨 Reality check: He lowered current tariffs by just 10% Hit China with a massive 125% tariff Recession risk? Still on the table Economic uncertainty? Worse than ever You think China will just let this slide? Retaliation is coming. What we're seeing is a nation burning its credibility while recklessly using financial power to create chaos. 🚨 If you think your money is safe in markets run by these people, think again. This isn't trading anymore—it's Russian Roulette. Markets needs stability. DYOR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoNikkoid
12
Bitcoin Nears $85K as Strategic Talks Grow. Where To Next?Bitcoin, the king crypto, is currently trading at $84,848.36. It has gained 3.10% in the last 24 hours, with a daily trading volume of $30.09 billion. Bitcoin’s market capitalization now stands at $1.68 trillion. Globally, Bitcoin continues to gain attention at the policy level. In the U.S., there are growing discussions about recognizing Bitcoin as a national strategic asset. A U.S. Senator recently suggested the country acquire 1 million BTC, reinforcing the idea. Florida has introduced legislation allowing public funds to invest in Bitcoin. North Carolina is considering recognizing Bitcoin as a legal payment method. Arizona’s Senate is evaluating the creation of a home-based Bitcoin activity policy and the possibility of a state reserve. Meanwhile, New Hampshire passed a bill allowing up to 10% of its state funds to be invested in Bitcoin. In Europe, Sweden is assessing the idea of adding Bitcoin to its national reserves for financial stability. Technical Analysis From a technical view, Bitcoin has been in a bearish phase since reaching its all-time high of $109,358 on January 19. Since then, the price has been forming an internal structure of lower highs and lower lows, a clear sign of a downtrend. It dropped to a low of $74K after Trump-era tariffs hit the market but has since rebounded to current levels. The recent lower high stands at $88,996. The trend remains bearish until that level is broken with a strong candle close above it. If Bitcoin breaks and closes above this point, analysis show a potential move toward new highs. Without that breakout, bearish pressure may resume, possibly pushing the price back down to test support near $73K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Electronic Arts Inc. Stock Sees Momentum Ahead of Earnings Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:EA ) is gaining attention as the gaming industry shows signs of recovery. The stock closed at $142.93 on April 11, 2025, reflecting a gain of $3.54( 2.54%) for the day. Its next earnings report is scheduled for May 6, 2025. The gaming industry grew rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic but saw a decline as restrictions lifted. In 2024, inflation and lower spending led to layoffs and studio closures, though upcoming game releases may support a recovery. EA is a major player in digital entertainment. It develops and distributes games across platforms, including consoles, mobile, and PCs. Popular titles in its lineup include EA SPORTS FC, Battlefield, Apex Legends, The Sims, Madden NFL, Need for Speed, Dragon Age, and Plants vs. Zombies. Billionaire investors continue to show confidence in EA, placing it among the top gaming stocks. Technical Analysis EA recently bounced sharply from the support zone around $115. This level aligns with a previous support zone. A strong bullish candle followed, with high volume pushing the price above key moving averages. Currently, EA trades near $143. The 50-day moving average is at $144.38, the 100-day at $141.01, and the 200-day at $133.68. These are levels that are likely to support the price in case of further declines. The RSI stands at 52.41, showing neutral momentum. Next potential move suggests a short-term pullback before continuation. If the stock breaks above the immediate target and ascending trendline resistance, the next target lies near $168.50 previous high. EA is showing strength both fundamentally and technically as it approaches its next earnings release.
NASDAQ:EALong
by DEXWireNews
DoorDash (NASDAQ: $DASH) Gains Strength Ahead of May EarningsDoorDash, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DASH ) is showing strong momentum in a volatile market. As of April 11, DASH closed at $180.49, up 1.10% for the day. The stock has risen about 9% year-to-date, while the overall Computer and Technology sector has dropped around 11.8%. This places DoorDash ahead of many of its peers. DoorDash belongs to the Computer and Technology group, which ranks #6 out of 16 sectors based on the Zacks Sector Rank. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), signaling positive analyst sentiment. Over the last three months, analysts have revised DoorDash's full-year earnings estimate up by 14.7%. This indicates growing confidence in the company’s future performance. Investors are now watching closely as DoorDash prepares to release its earnings report on May 7, 2025. The stock's upward trend and revised estimates may influence how it reacts to the upcoming results. Technical Analysis The daily chart shows that DASH recently bounced off a strong support zone around $162. This zone has acted as a demand area before, pushing the price higher in past sessions. Currently, DASH is approaching key resistance level at $200. A break above these could lead the stock toward the recent high at $215.25. The chart also suggests a possible retracement before a new leg up, reflecting a bullish continuation structure. Volume increased during the bounce, indicating strong buying interest. RSI is at 48.16, which suggests neutral momentum with room for further upside. DoorDash remains one to watch heading into earnings season.
NASDAQ:DASHLong
by DEXWireNews
Netflix Earnings Growth Expected As It Prepares For Q125 ResultsNetflix (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NFLX ) is set to report its earnings for the quarter ending March 2025 on April 17. Analysts expect year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings. However, consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised down slightly by 0.07% over the past 30 days. This suggests a cautious outlook among analysts. At the close on April 11, Netflix stock traded at $918.29, down by 0.31%. In after-hours trading, the price edged slightly higher to $919.80. The stock traded with a volume of 4.07 million shares. RSI stands at 47.76, reflecting neutral momentum. The final result could trigger a sharp price move. A positive earnings surprise might push the stock higher. On the other hand, a miss could lead to a decline. The outcome will also depend on management’s commentary during the earnings call. Technical Analysis On the daily chart, Netflix recently bounced off a key demand zone near the $820–$830 range. This zone had previously served as a strong support area. After touching this level, the price formed a reversal candle, signaling potential buying interest. The stock is now hovering around $918.29, near the 50-day and 100-day moving averages at $961.61 and $931.24, respectively. If the price clears these levels, it may aim for the recent high of $1,064.50. A short-term retracement could occur before a possible continuation higher. Volume analysis shows a spike during the bounce from support, indicating accumulation. The price pattern suggests a bullish structure is forming. Overall, eyes remain on the April 17 earnings report for the next major move, which might see Netflix surge to a new all-time high.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by DEXWireNews
2
BlackRock Beats EPS Estimates Despite Revenue Miss in Q1 2025 BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:BLK ) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $11.30 for Q1 2025. This beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.25, marking a 10.24% surprise. In the same quarter last year, EPS was $9.81. Revenue came in at $5.28 billion, missing the estimate of $5.33 billion by 1%. However, it rose from $4.73 billion a year earlier. The company has surpassed EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters and has topped consensus estimates twice in that span. In the previous quarter, BlackRock posted EPS of $11.93, beating the $11.27 estimate. That represented a surprise of 5.86%. BlackRock operates in the Financial - Investment Management industry. The market now awaits management’s outlook for future earnings. This will shape short-term price direction. So far in 2025, BlackRock shares have dropped 16.2%. In comparison, the S&P 500 has declined 10.4%. Technical Analysis BlackRock rebounded from a strong support zone near $780. This level aligns with the long-term horizontal support level that has held for over 3 years now. The RSI sits at 41, indicating it is nearly oversold. However, a bullish reversal momentum is forming around the support zone. If the price continues to rise, resistance and target lie at the $1,084.22 recent high. A break above $950 may trigger a run toward the $1,000–$1,084 range. If the price is rejected, it could revisit the $780 support or possibly the ascending trendline sitting below the horizontal support.
NYSE:BLKLong
by DEXWireNews
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Reports Strong Q125 ResultsMorgan Stanley (NYSE: NYSE:MS ) Beats Q1 estimates with record Equity Trading Revenue. The bank posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.60, beating analyst expectations of $2.18. Revenue reached a record $17.74 billion, topping forecasts of $16.44 billion. The bank's equity trading revenue soared 45% year-over-year. It reached a new high of $4.13 billion as growth came across business lines and regions. Asia showed particularly strong performance. Prime brokerage and derivatives led gains, fueled by high client activity in volatile markets. Morgan Stanley shares dropped 1% after the earnings release. However, the stock remains up over 20% in the past year. Volatility in global markets helped trading desks outperform. Technical Analysis Morgan Stanley bounced sharply from the $95 support zone. Buyers stepped in near the previous breakout level. Volume increased and confirmed renewed interest. This was seen as Trump paused tariffs for the next 90 days as well. Current price action suggests a recovery trend. The RSI stands at 39, hinting at oversold conditions. A potential path points to $142.03, which acts as the immediate resistance level. If the price breaks $113 cleanly, momentum could carry it to $130 and beyond. If it fails, it is most likely to retest $95 support level. A strong break above recent highs would confirm bullish continuation. For now, Watch out the $113 and $142 levels closely.
NYSE:MSLong
by DEXWireNews
Whirlpool of DividendsAm I crazy to be looking at a manufacturing play right now considering the tariff trade wars going on? The stock right now has a forward dividend yield of 8.65% at the current price with a technical setup. There are fundamentals around tariffs to consider but that could only be the "reason" the price has come to a great buy. I set an alert almost a year ago in April 2024 based on a follower of mine liking the stock NYSE:WHR as a dividend play. I suggested that we set the buy alert for the Volume Profile level going back 20 years ago which also incorporated the 2020 COVID low: That alert his this week and I did some fundamental research on the company. Back in 2018 Whirlpool took a big hit with the first round of China focused tariffs. However, the company responded by focusing on more U.S.-based manufacturing. Its competitors, LG and Samsung have more tariff exposure. Material costs could still present a challenge. From a technical standpoint I see a major low with volume support that could hold up price.
NYSE:WHRLong
by norok
Nvidia (NASDAQ: $NVDA) Shares Rally Amid AI Sector OptimismShares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) have gained over 3% on Friday 11th April. The positive results come after U.S. markets rallied on tariff news. President Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs for most countries dropped to 10%, sparking investor optimism. Major U.S. indices rose sharply following the announcement after being under pressure from rising trade tensions. The pause was seen as a welcome shift toward calmer negotiations. However, Trump excluded China from this relief. Instead, he stated that tariffs on Chinese goods would increase to 125%. This came after China announced new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. The tough stance toward China contrasted with the softened approach to other countries. Despite the relief, market uncertainty remains. Investors are unsure whether the rally will last. Ongoing trade disputes, especially with China, could disrupt momentum. Nvidia's price rose to $110.78, gaining $14.99 on Friday's session. The stock reached an intraday high of $111.53 and a low of $107.48. The current resistance sits at $153.13 high. Technical Analysis Nvidia bounced sharply off the $92 support zone, highlighted by strong buying pressure. The RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum. A clear resistance lies near $153.13 high. If Nvidia breaks this level, a move toward $180 is likely. If it fails, price may revisit the $92 zone. Two scenarios are possible. The stock could either continue upward to $180 or face rejection and fall back. Watch the $153 level closely for confirmation.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by DEXWireNews
DXY Drops to 3-Year Lows, EURUSD Soars to 1.14With the 3-Day RSI hovering near 2020 highs, the monthly chart shows potential for further upside as EURUSD breaks out of a long-term downtrend channel that began from the 2008 highs. The pair has reached a high of 1.1470, aligning with the 0.272 Fibonacci retracement of the 2008–2022 downtrend. A sustained hold above 1.15 opens the door for further gains toward resistance levels at 1.1730, 1.20, and 1.2350. On the downside, if overbought conditions on lower time frames lead to a pullback below 1.1270, potential support levels to monitor include 1.1140, 1.1070,1.09, and 1.0850, - Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
1
British pound keeps rolling as UK GDP shinesThe British pound is up sharply on Friday, extending its rally for a fourth straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3088, up 0.94% on the day. The pound has surged 2.9% since Monday. UK GDP higher than expected February with a gain of 0.5% m/m. This followed a revised 0% reading in January and beat the market estimate of 0.1%. This was the fastest pace of growth since March 2024. Services, manufacturing and construction all recorded gains. For the three months to January, GDP expanded 0.6%, above the revised 0.3% gain in January and higher than the market estimate of 0.4%. The strong GDP data is welcome news amid all the uncertainty created by US President Trump's tariff policy. The UK's largest trading partner is the US and the 10% tariffs on UK products will hurt the UK export sector (Trump has suspended an additional 10% tariff for 90 days). Bank of England expected to lower rates in May The turmoil in the financial markets and escalating trade tensions has the Bank of England worried. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May, betting that the BoE will ease policy in order to support the weak economy, even with inflation above the 2% target. The BoE kept rates unchanged in March and meets next on May 8. The US-China trade war rose up a notch on Friday, as China announced it would raise tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%. This move was in response to the US lifting tariffs on China by 125% this week, for a total tariff rate at 145%. The trade war will dampen China's economy and Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 GDP forecast for China to 4.0% from 4.5%.
by OANDA
$ETH - Ethereum enters buy zoneHey traders! How is your portfolio doing? Trump is shaking us! After all these months in 2025 I've tried to project a new scenario (bullish/bearish) that clarifies our next outlook. Not an easy job. As you see day by day, markets are in high volatility due to trade war and (not trying to be pesimistic) could be worse. However, In my opinion Ethereum (and altcoin markets) are entering into a golden opportunity. that has to be taken 100%. Don't know where is the bottom for CRYPTOCAP:ETH on a short scenario. But, what I can certainly say is that won't fall as a stone for too long. Ranges between 1400 - 2000 USD are gold prices to make progressives buys. Although it could fall even more ( 900 - 1200 USD) I think this is a high Risk reward buy. But, timing is not on time. Shouldn't I sell, expecting a bear market( you know Halving and Posthalving ideas). Times have changed as the macro scenario has not been the same as the previous bullruns. So, it's time to accumulate and expect a possible expansion cycle in 2026.. That could lead Ethereum to prices never seen before. Yes, the range between 8.000 - 15.000 USD. As I always say. Just my opinion. Stay safe!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Ometrading
1
India, USA, China - Trade Deficit Performance after Covid PhaseIndia’s Trade Deficit Nearing a Turning Point – Strong Growth Amid Global Shifts Trade Deficit Performance Over the Last 5 Years: India: -10% USA: -215% China: +359% Over the past five years, global trade dynamics have shifted significantly, with India showing promising signs of a turnaround in its trade performance. India: A Rounding Bottom Pattern? India’s trade deficit has improved by -10% over the last five years, hinting at a potential rounding bottom pattern that could transition into a trade surplus in the coming years. This positive shift comes despite global economic headwinds, positioning India as a resilient and emerging export player. USA: Longer Road to Recovery In contrast, the United States has seen its trade deficit worsen by -215%, suggesting a deeper structural challenge in its trade balance. While the U.S. economy remains strong in other metrics, its export-import imbalance will likely take more time and policy adjustments to stabilize. China: The Export Powerhouse slowdown after Tariffs sanctions ? China continues to dominate with a staggering +359% improvement in its trade surplus over the past five years, solidifying its position as the world’s top exporter. However, rising global tariffs and geopolitical tensions could gradually redirect supply chains. 🌏 Macro Implications: Tariff Realignment: As global companies look to diversify away from China amid escalating tariffs and political tensions, India is emerging as a key beneficiary. This realignment could significantly bolster India’s export sector. India’s Growth Story: With structural reforms, expanding manufacturing capabilities, and supportive government policies like PLI (Production-Linked Incentives), India is well-positioned to capture a larger share of global trade flows. Global Slowdown, Local Resilience: Despite a global economic slowdown, India’s improving trade dynamics signal strong internal momentum and a maturing economy. 📈 Conclusion: India is on the cusp of a major trade shift. While China remains the global leader in exports and the USA faces growing imbalances, India’s improving trade performance, geopolitical advantage, and manufacturing push make it a compelling long-term trade and investment story. Amid Tariffs war and global economy slowdown, India's growth story continues...
ECONOMICS:CNEXPLong
by Atmiya_aatubhai
4
EURUSD Tests 17-Year Long-Term Trend!!!After Trump announced an additional 20% in tariffs, EURUSD made a relatively surprising move and surged sharply. This marks the second leg of the upward trend that began in early March. However, the sharp rise has now brought EURUSD to the doorstep of a very long-term resistance level. Since testing 1.60 in 2008, EURUSD has been moving lower within a wide descending trend channel that has held for 17 years. Since 2015, the pattern has evolved into a wedge formation within this broader channel. The most recent test of this resistance came last year, but at the time, a weak Eurozone economy, crowded Euro long positions, and a hawkish Fed prevented a breakout. This time, the landscape is different. The Eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the ECB’s rate cuts appear to be nearing their end, and European countries have started to band together following a decline in confidence in their biggest ally and decide to increase technology, defence spending. Despite these developments, the medium-term effects of the new tariffs and the strength of the long-term resistance level are likely to prevent a clear breakout for now. Still, the long-term outlook is beginning to shift in favor of the euro, and a breakout later this year carries a significant probability.
by ftdsystem
GBP/USD at a Crossroads: Imminent Breakout or Bull Trap?The weekly chart of GBP/USD shows a strong recovery following the late-April correction, which brought the price down to a key demand zone between 1.2550 and 1.2600. The bounce was sharp and decisive, but the pair is now facing resistance between 1.3000 and 1.3150 — a previously sold area marked by a visible supply block in red. The current weekly candle reflects a bullish reaction, but the overall structure suggests a potential exhaustion zone for upward momentum. Price action reveals a series of lower highs in the short term, and while the RSI is bouncing, it remains far from overbought, hinting that this move may be just a technical rebound. From a trading perspective, a confirmed weakness around the 1.3000–1.3150 zone could offer short opportunities with an initial target near 1.2700 and, if extended, down to 1.2550 — a key dynamic support area. On the flip side, a clean breakout above 1.3150 with strong volume and a weekly close would open the door for a new bullish leg toward 1.3300–1.3400. Conclusion: GBP/USD is currently at a critical juncture. The next directional move will depend on how price reacts to this resistance zone: a confirmed rejection could trigger renewed selling pressure, while a confirmed breakout may reignite the bullish trend.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
NZDCAD Discretionary Analysis: Bank Manipulation?The price just crashed into the distribution block, straight into that sellside liquidity order block like it knew exactly where it was going. Bank manipulation? It's all over this one. The institutional orderflow is running the show, and with a sharp liquidity spike followed by orders stacking up like a ticking time bomb, it's getting real... they are manipulating the price. The fair value gap is wide, and that uptrust into the distribution channel? That's the red flag that’s flashing "this is it." Everything is lined up for a big move, and I'm here for going on the lower timeframe and entering on that liquidity sweep from a NY Open manipulated candlestick. Just kidding, I just think it's gonna go up.
Long
by davidavasalcai
29