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Tariffs

EUR/USD slides on tariff turmoil, euro CPI risesThe euro has weakened at the start of the new week. EUR/USD slumped over the weekend and dropped as low as 1.0141, its lowest level since Nov. 2022. The euro has recovered somewhat on Monday and is trading at 1.0277 in the North American session. Still, the euro has dropped 0.76% since Friday's close. US President Trump hasn't wasted any time and imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada over the weekend, effective February 4. Mexico and Canada have both announced retaliatory tariffs in response. Earlier today, just one day before the tariffs were to take effect, the US announced that the tariffs against Mexico would be delayed for a month. The breather is good news, but the US could still find itself embroiled in a trade war with its two neighbors, in what is the world's largest trade zone. Trump hasn't slapped the European Union with any tariffs yet, but said on Friday that he would "absolutely" go after imports from the EU. Global markets have been hit by fears of a global trade war resulting from the US tariffs and the US dollar is up sharply against most of the major currencies, including the euro. Inflation in the eurozone ticked upwards to 2.5% y/y in January from 2.4% in December, above the market estimate of 2.4%. This was the highest CPI level since July 2024, driven mainly by a sharp jump in energy prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 2.7% y/y for a fifth straight month, just above the market estimate of 2.6%. This is above the European Central Bank's 2% target but is the lowest level since January 2022. Services inflation, which is closely watched by the ECB, eased to 3.9% in January, down from 4% in December. Today's inflation report affirms that inflationary risks remain and could complicate the ECB's plans to reduce interest rates and kick-start the weak eurozone economy. The ECB meets next on March 6. EUR/USD has pushed above resistance at 1.0244 and is testing resistance at 1.0297 There is support at 1.0203 and 1.0175 www.tradingview.com
by OANDA
Trump’s Trade War Risks Throwing Markets into Chaos. TARIFFic?Apparently, Trump has slapped Mexico, Canada and China with hefty tariffs. Now all these three are either already retaliating with their own levies on US goods or getting ready to do so. The complex interplay of back-and-forth tariffs risks turning friends into foes and driving up prices. All the while the end consumer is likely to cover the difference. President Donald Trump on Saturday actually went ahead and did what he wanted to do. He launched the game of tariffs. He hit Mexico, Canada and China with hefty import duties, threatening to throw the world’s trade into a spiral of ill intentions, retaliations and higher prices for your Stanley cups and iPhones. The looming destabilization is already coming from both ends — Canada swiftly imposed 25% levies on roughly $20 billion of US goods coming into the country on Tuesday. Another $85 billion worth of goods are getting the same treatment within the next three weeks. China, where nearly everything you get your hands on is made, said it will “take necessary countermeasures to defend its rights and interests.” Trump’s new order requires Canada and Mexico to pay 25% tariffs on imports to the US (with a partial carve out for Canada’s energy and oil exports — 10% levies apply there). The US President was gearing up for a 60% tariff rate on China while he was running for office but said he’s imposing a 10% tariff that will likely get higher in time. These three countries in 2023 collectively accounted for about 40% of all US imports. That year, the US imported about $3.85 trillion worth of goods. In November 2024, the US pulled in about $351 billion worth of stuff and then sold it to Americans. What are tariffs and who pays them? At the basic level, tariffs are a way for an economy to protect itself from foreign competition. Through tariffs, domestic businesses are somewhat shielded from outside interference and can snatch up a bigger portion of the local market. Tariffs are just taxes placed on products that are made overseas and then imported to the country. Here’s the kicker: the foreign companies that make these goods and then import them aren’t on the hook for paying the tariffs — American businesses are. Tech companies like Apple AAPL , which makes about 95% of its stuff in China, or Tesla TSLA , which makes half of its cars in China, will end up paying more for their products as they come into the US. Who’s collecting that import duty? The US government. What could happen when these tariffs get cracking? The US consumer will most likely cover the difference. Nearly every product will be affected — from cars to baby toys to the already expensive eggs (can egg prices get even higher?) Here’s an example: potash, the product that’s used by US farmers as fertilizer, just got 25% more expensive. That extra cost, paid by the farmers, is likely to trickle down to the end consumer so farmers could keep trucking and produce at the same rates. What could happen to the stock market? One thing is certain — the companies that don’t pass on the added cost to the consumer will see their corporate profits dwindle. But if they want to keep generating value for shareholders, they’ll need to pass it forward to the end user. With the first quarter now well under way, the next earnings season will be a sight to see. (Friendly reminder to keep an eye on the economic calendar for all corporate earnings and updates.) An analysis from Barclays estimates that all S&P 500 companies could see their profits shrink by 2.8% once the tariffs get in full flow. Perhaps a bigger, scarier fallout is possible. Inflation can perk up again. Inevitably, the higher costs across the border risk undoing what the Federal Reserve was doing to combat inflation. Goldman Sachs came out with the forecast that the looming tariffs could have an initial knock on effect on inflation to the tune of 0.7% to the upside. Gross domestic product could drop 0.4%. And most of all, there’s one thing investors fear the most. Rising inflation could bring back interest rate hikes. A revival in consumer prices might prompt the Federal Reserve to walk back its intentions of more interest rate cuts and lean against the economy by raising borrowing costs. There are early signs of this already. Fed chief Jay Powell last week said the central bank is in a wait-and-see phase as Trump’s policies unfurl. The scary tariffs already knocked the wind out of stocks and crypto. Monday morning saw one of its worst openings in years, especially for Ethereum ETHUSD . The second-largest coin fell as much as 27% from the get-go as the bullish sentiment was nowhere to be seen. Bitcoin BTCUSD also got a slap losing 6% in its first deals to settle near $91,000 before paring back some of the drop. And stock futures were looking at steep declines with Dow futures DJI shedding as much as 700 points ahead of the opening bell in New York. The only winner was the US dollar DXY , which stands to gain popularity in a high-tariff environment. Until now, the market has been overwhelmingly on Trump’s side. He stepped into the White House riding on the promises of a strong economy and booming business. But if he takes aim (even indirectly) at shareholders’ profits, he might end up losing the support of all those billionaire executives who worked hard to get him elected. What do you think? Is Trump acting in the best interest of America or is he driving markets into a ditch? Share your thoughts below!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
55
DXY Analysis & ConsiderationsOverall Trend & Context: Long-Term Uptrend: The DXY exhibits a clear uptrend from late 2023, indicating persistent USD strength. Key Levels: Resistance Zone (109.50 - 110.00): This zone has proven a challenge for the DXY to break decisively. A sustained break above this level is crucial for further upside. Support Zone (107.00 - 108.00): This zone has provided support during pullbacks. EMAs (25, 50, 100, 200 - 4-Hour Chart): The DXY is trading above all EMAs, a bullish sign. The 25 EMA is acting as dynamic support, and a bullish crossover (25 above 50) has occurred. Potential Scenarios & Probabilities: Bullish Breakout (High Probability) : The bullish EMA alignment favor an upside breakout above 110.00. Increased volume would confirm this scenario. Pullback to Support/EMAs (Medium Probability) : A pullback towards the support line or the 25 EMA (around 108.80 - 109.00) is plausible, especially given the overbought RSI. This could offer a good long entry opportunity. Breakdown Below Support (Low - Medium Probability) : A break below the support line and the EMAs would weaken the bullish outlook and could lead to a deeper correction. Trading Considerations: xxxUSD pairs - If the dollar goes up we should look for short positions. USDxxx pairs - If Dollar goes up we can look for long positions. A pullback to the support zones or the 25 EMA could offer a lower-risk long entry, provided these levels hold and there is sufficient demand on the USDxxx pair you're trading. (technicals should always be prioritized) Consider placing stop-loss orders below key support/demand levels to manage risk. Look for increased volume during breakouts or bounces off support to strengthen signals. Watch for bearish divergence on the RSI as a potential bearish warning sign on the DXY. Geopolitical Factors: De-dollarization Efforts: Some countries are exploring alternatives to the US dollar for trade and reserves. While this is a long-term trend, any significant announcements or actions could impact the dollar's value.   Sanctions and Trade Policies: US sanctions and trade policies can influence the dollar's strength, particularly against the currencies of targeted countries. The US imposed tariffs are creating ripples right now. Let's quickly look at what 'tariffs' are - By now you should all know about the US imposed tariffs on several major trading partners including China, Canada and Mexico (and that they've retaliated with their own tariffs on US goods). What does this all mean? In the US any goods that are imported from Canada for example, will now cost more to the general public. To put it simply, the US is now charging a "handlers fee" and that will increase the overall price. These tariffs are intended to encourage these countries to change their trade practices. The tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, increased costs for businesses, and created uncertainty. Make no mistake, this is without a doubt, a trade war. Potential Impacts on the US Dollar: Positive Impact: Safe-haven demand: Increased global economic uncertainty due to the trade war could drive investors towards the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and its value. People will flock to the take no s#it protocols implemented by the Trump administration. Reduced imports: If tariffs lead to a significant decrease in US imports, there could be less demand for foreign currencies to purchase those imports, indirectly increasing demand for USD. This means that trade conducted by the US will increase the overall Dollar output - thus making it seem more valuable. (If we assume the Trump administration is playing petty games, we're badly misinformed, we should assume that these are well calculated risks) Negative Impact: Reduced US exports: Tariffs can make US goods less competitive, leading to a decrease in exports. This can reduce foreign demand for USD, as fewer foreign buyers need dollars to purchase US goods. Economic slowdown: The trade war could negatively impact economic growth in the US and globally. A slowdown in the US economy could make the dollar less attractive to investors. Retaliatory tariffs: If other countries retaliate with their own tariffs on US goods, it can further dampen US exports and reduce demand for the dollar. Trade Wars and Uncertainty: The uncertainty and potential for escalation associated with trade wars can negatively impact investor confidence and lead to a flight to safety. While the USD is often seen as a safe haven, extreme uncertainty could lead investors to seek other safe-haven assets or reduce their overall exposure to USD (Right now Gold is something you should be looking into as a trader and investor). Final Notes: The technical picture is strong and does favour a breakout. But the geopolitical risks reduce the probability. Be prepared for fundamentals to override technicals in the short term. Given the heightened risks, traders should be cautious and wait for clear confirmation signals before taking positions. Closely follow news related to the debt ceiling, economic data, and geopolitical events. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXYLong
by Apexfx_Alpha
Bitcoin Down: Tariffs to Blame?I wake up to read that both equities are Bitcoin are down on Tariffs as the "reason." Is this true? More importantly, is knowing this valuable? I don't think so. The media needs to write some narrative every day to get read and sell ads. So they take the latest buzz and craft it into a "reason" price moved the way it did. The trouble is that this information is is useless for traders and investors. Once the article is written the move has happened. There is nothing to profit nor more importantly LEARN from having this knowledge. It is a singular event; no long term consistent strategy can be crafted from a single thing happening once. Bitcoin was already breaking down since January 20th. That day failed a big test of the prior All Time High. INDEX:BTCUSD has actually never closed higher than December 17th. To emphasize the point more if one looks at the mainstream financial news they are also blaming today's equities route on tariffs. The truth is that stocks only seemed to have a bullish January. The S&P 500 futures never actually made a new high beyond the post-election pump in January. Traders have to make plays BEFORE the news happens. The only way to do that is by watching charts for opportunities and reading the simple signs. Trade wisely!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
3
EURUSD 3 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - Taste of Trade WAR!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment " Strike the bound, and the free will take heed " Market Volatility and Geopolitical Strategy: Assessing the Implications of a Trump Presidency Recent market movements underscore a critical narrative: A second Trump administration carries significant potential to reignite the trade policy volatility that defined his first term. Historical precedent offers a clear lens—within weeks of taking office in 2017, President Trump implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, upending decades of trade consensus. Investors initially dismissed these measures as negotiation tactics, but markets are now pricing in a more structural shift. As of this week’s open, risk-on sentiment reflects renewed acceptance of Trump’s uncompromising stance, particularly following his social media assertion that “the pain from tariffs will be worth the price.” A Businessman’s Approach to Geopolitics Trump’s career as a dealmaker suggests a presidency anchored in transactional realism. His administration’s “America First” doctrine—evident in the rapid escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—demonstrates a willingness to weaponize economic policy to recalibrate global alliances. This strategy aligns with a proverb often cited in Egyptian diplomacy: “Strike the bound, and the free will take heed.” By aggressively targeting key partners (the “bound”), the U.S. signals resolve to broader adversaries (the “free”), including Europe and emerging economies. Strategic Outlook for Investors With 205 weeks remaining in a hypothetical term, market participants should prepare for sustained turbulence. The 2018-2019 trade war eroded nearly $1.7 trillion in global equity value; a second iteration could prove more disruptive given today’s fragmented supply chains and inflationary pressures. In conclusion, while Trump’s policies may inject short-term uncertainty, they also recalibrate the playbook for global engagement. Investors who disentangle rhetoric from actionable strategy will be best positioned to navigate this paradigm. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹At Swing Extreme 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹With Risk-On sentiment, market opened with a gap down reaching the extreme Swing Low. 🔹The expected move is done with the market open. More development is required on LTFs. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is to continue bearish as long the Risk-On sentiment is still active and no soft tone from Trump in regards to Tariffs. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, but currently the Risk-On sentiment is the main theme (Technical will follow sentiment) so not currently expecting a valuable pullback phase for the bearish BOS. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set for price to continue bearish and fulfill the Daily Bearish continuation.
by Amr-Sadek
$BTC Remains Bullish Despite Tariff FearsMarket is panicking over Tariff Wars, but ₿itcoin continues to remain in a bullish uptrend. CRYPTOCAP:BTC got rejected hard at $104k on the Weekly, and has closed below the 9WMA. Strong possibility of price trading $94-91k. A range for a few weeks might appear painful, but will give the market time to reset and accumulate all that liquidity for the next leg up. Price is nowhere close to the 20 or 50WMA, so there’s nothing really to worry about structurally at this point. The Bull Case is price is closing above the .382 Fib, so we could slingshot up if we get some bullish catalysts next week. WHEN IN DOUBT, ZOOM OUT.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by jonnieking
Crypto Market Dynamics Amidst Tariffs & Trade War FearsLast Friday afternoon, President Trump announced new tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%), and China (10%). This news set off a selloff in the crypto market. Since traditional financial markets were closed for the weekend, they couldn’t react immediately, but we might see panic selling when trading opens on Monday. In response, both Canada and Mexico have threatened retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. Whether Trump is using this as a negotiation tactic or signaling a long-term policy remains uncertain, but one thing is clear—the market dislikes the idea of a trade war. On the bright side, Bitcoin was already due for a significant correction. Even a 30% drop from its current all-time high wouldn’t derail the Macro Trend. However, the concerning part is that Trump’s actions could lead to further economic pain for both the U.S. and global economies before any recovery happens. Because so many factors are in play, I’ve combined four key metrics into one chart to help us see where money is moving. Here’s what the chart shows: BTC.D (Candles): This indicates Bitcoin’s dominance in the market. BTC Price (Orange): The current price of Bitcoin. TOTAL3 (Purple): The total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH. USDT.D (Green): This measures the share of funds in USDT. What Does the Chart Tell Us? Flow of Money: Funds are moving between Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins (USDT), or leaving the market altogether. Key Indicator – USDT.D: Below the Breakout Line: If USDT.D stays below a critical level, it suggests that buyers are stepping in to support both Bitcoin and altcoins. Above the Local Top: If USDT.D breaks above its recent high, it signals increased market fear. In this case, we should watch the other metrics: A spike in TOTAL3 indicates that altcoins are gaining traction, hinting at a potential altcoin season. A spike in BTC.D suggests that Bitcoin is maintaining or even strengthening its dominance. A spike in USDT.D implies that investors are seeking safety in stablecoins, showing overall market nervousness. By monitoring these indicators, we can get a clearer picture of whether or not an alt season is developing, and whether the correction developing is a temporary setback or the start of a deeper decline.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by kapro
EURUSD 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 - Weekly Analysis - Tariffs Impact & NFP This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, effective immediately. The tariffs include a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures are intended to address issues such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and trade imbalances. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation to assess the potential economic impact of the new tariffs. The primary concerns include: Inflation: The tariffs are expected to raise the cost of imported goods, which could contribute to higher inflation rates. This development may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to adjustments in interest rates to manage inflationary pressures. Economic Growth: The increased costs for businesses and consumers may dampen economic growth. The Fed will need to balance the risks of slowing growth with the potential for rising inflation when considering future policy actions. In summary, the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has introduced significant uncertainty into the markets. Investors are concerned about the potential for increased costs and supply chain disruptions, while the Federal Reserve is evaluating the implications for inflation and overall economic growth. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium). 🔹Price had tapped into the Weekly Demand formed from the Bullish CHoCH last week. Is this demand enough to initiate the INT Pullback or with the current market sentiment and USD expectation to strength in the short-term we will continue Bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT Structures to target the Weak INT Low and Weak Swing Low? 🔹Expectations for price react from the current Weekly demand and then target the Weak INT Low to target the Weak Swing Low. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Currently price tapping into a Daily/Weekly Demand Zones which could provide some bounce / or reversal for price to continue up (Depends on market Sentiment and if tariffs will trigger Risk-Off and USD Strength or it’s already priced in from last week strength in USD). 🔹Expectation is set to Bearish and more LTF development required to have a clear view. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing EQ 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Price managed to create a Bearish iBOS indicating that the Swing Pullback started. 🔹After the iBOS, we expect a Pullback. 3️⃣ 🔹Price currently tapping into the Daily/Weekly demand which could provide a short-term pullback (waiting for at least a Bullish CHoCH to confirm). 🔹Expectation is set to have a reaction from the Daily / 4H Demand zone to facilitate the pullback (Aligns with the Daily/Weekly expectations) then we will continue bearish to facilitate the Daily / Weekly expectations of bearish move. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
TARIFFS Will Lead To Inflation!? NOPE!So many talking heads crying TARIFFS will be inflationary, but it’s mostly uneducated fear-mongering. Let’s look at the cold, hard USIRYY and CPI data to figure out the truth behind this. From March 2018 through September 2019, President Trump had eight waves of tariff announcements on C-H-I-N-A, plus some steel and aluminum ones on Mexico and Canada. In order to combat these inflation worries, Trump did what he said he was going to do… DRILL BABY DRILL. For the first time since 1949, the US would be a net exporter of oil. We can see there was a quick spike in inflation from stockpiling imports before tariffs were fully implemented, but inflation quickly plummeted nearly in half as the US became a net exporter. Fast-forward to today, and coincidentally inflation is at 2.9% which is right around where it was when Trump imposed the tariffs during his last presidency. Funny how that works out, eh ;) Trump has declared the US will DRILL BABY DRILL bigger than ever, which should lead us to believe that this time is NOT different and inflation will go down again.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by jonnieking
4
Trading Gold Futures Amid Global Trade TensionsCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) #Microfutures The United States will be implementing new tariffs on Saturday, February 1st, including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as a 10% duty on all goods from China. These countries are the Top 3 U.S. trading partners, contributing to 40% of all goods and services imported into the US in 2023, collectively. On Friday, gold prices surpassed the key $2,800 mark for the first time ever. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,810.55 per troy ounce, after hitting a record high of $2,817.23. The record rally is fueled by a flight to safety as trade tensions rise. Gold futures are trading at a premium to spot gold prices. The lead April contract of the benchmark COMEX gold futures settled at $2,833 on Friday. Looking back, the trade tensions between the US and China have intensified since 2018. This time, higher tariffs will be applied globally, not only to competitors of U.S. interests, but also to close allies such as Canada, Mexico and the European Union. Lessons from the US-China Trade Conflict How would the global trade conflicts shape up? Uncertainties remain elevated. Luckily, the US-China trade conflict provides us historical lessons with present-day relevancy. Let’s have a quick review of the major timeline of key events: • July 6, 2018: The trade conflict begins as the US imposes 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliates with tariffs on an equal amount of US goods. • August 23, 2018: The US imposes additional 25% tariffs on another $16 billion worth of Chinese goods. China responds with tariffs on $16 billion worth of US goods. • September 24, 2018: The US imposes 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. China retaliates with tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods. • December 1, 2018: A temporary truce is agreed upon during the G20 summit, with a 90-day period for negotiations. • January 15, 2020: The "Phase One" trade deal is signed, easing some tariffs and committing China to increase purchases of US goods. Gold prices responded quickly at each stage of the trade conflict, creating ample trading opportunities. On June 7, 2022, I published “Event-Driven Strategy Focusing on Global Crisis” on TradingView, based on my own trading experience from 2018-19. A link to this write-up is provided here for your information: In summary, I observed patterns in gold prices while the trade conflict was progressing, and designed event-driven strategy based on Game Theory. Here are the highlights: • US initiated new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • China retaliated with new tariffs; Gold prices went up further ("Risk On”) • US and China announced trade negotiations; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Negotiations broke down followed by new tariffs; Gold prices went up (“Risk On”) • Negotiations resumed; Gold prices went down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement was reached; Gold prices went down sharply (“Risk Off”) The “Fight-and-Talk” could go multiple rounds, pushing tariffs to higher levels. Just how high? China previously maintained a 12% import tariff on U.S. pork products. In its first round of trade retaliation in 2018, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on US pork. A month later, another 25% was added. Pork tariff went up a further 10% in the third round of retaliation, making the total tariff on US pork at a mind-boggling 72%! As shown in the chart, gold responded in an observable manner following each key event. This repetitive pattern made it possible to set up trades in anticipation of the next moves. The Sequence of Next Moves in Trade Conflicts Learning from the previous experience, we could simulate a series of scenarios when new tariffs are imposed on goods from Canada, Mexico, China and the EU. • US initiates new tariffs; Gold prices go up (“Risk On”) • The other country retaliates with new tariffs; Gold prices go up further ("Risk On”) • The two countries announced trade negotiations; Gold prices go down (“Risk Off”) • Trade agreement is reached; Gold prices go down sharply (“Risk Off”) In my opinion, the countries involved would retaliate but may want to avoid a costly trade conflict dragging on. With the brutality of the last trade conflict still fresh in mind, trade deals could be reached more quickly. From a trading perspective, the Fight-and-Talk patterns could be repeated multiple times, making our event-driven strategy reusable. Given that Canada, Mexico, China and the EU are the biggest U.S. trading partners, the price swing in gold could be more volatile. Conflicts with smaller trading partners, such as Taiwan and the Southeastern Asian countries, may not trigger big moves in gold. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on January 28th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 577,505, up 15% from the level last November when the U.S. election was held. Interest in using gold for trading or hedging goes up with the escalation of risk. “Swap Dealers” own 363,051 contracts, making them the largest trader category to own gold futures positions. • Swap Dealers have 29,725 in Long, 272,549 in Short, and 60,777 in Spreading • The long-short ratio of 1:9 indicates that “Smart Money” is overwhelmingly bearish There is another supporting factor for a bearish view: A key driver in gold prices is the geopolitical crisis. President Trump announced that he planned to meet with President Xi of China within the first 100 days in office. A meeting between President Trump and Russian President Putin is also being planned. As we know, bullion is a preferred asset during times of turmoil. We may soon see the geopolitical risks unwinding, which will send gold prices sharply down. This could happen when Russia and Ukraine end their military conflict with a peace treaty. Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Friday settlement price of 2,833, each April contract (MGCJ5) has a notional value of $28,330. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150. The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Thursday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 126,712 contracts and an Open Interest of 30,633. Hypothetically, a trader shorts April MGC contract and gold prices pull back 5% to 2,691. A short futures position would gain $1,420 (=142 x $10). Using the initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +123% (= 1420 / 1150). The risk of shorting gold futures is rising gold prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. Traders could express the same view with the standard COMEX Gold (GC) futures or the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures, which represent just 1/10 the size of a Micro Gold (MGC) futures contract and 1/100 of GC futures contract. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, sponsored by CME Group, will begin at TradingView on February 3rd. I encourage you to join The Leap and compete to be the best in CME Group futures trading and win a share of $25,000 in cash prizes or an additional six months to your TradingView subscription. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
EURUSD 31 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB CPI - US Core PCEThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment The combination of the Fed's steady rate policy and the administration's aggressive trade measures has led to a cautious market outlook. Investors are balancing optimism about domestic economic resilience with concerns over potential disruptions from international trade tensions. Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate. Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration. Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments. Economic Reports today: ECB CPI Expectations and US Core PCE. Overall, while the U.S. economy continues to exhibit strength, uncertainties stemming from trade policies and geopolitical factors are contributing to a mixed market sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price managed yesterday to create a Bullish CHoCH but again demand failed today which again adds the confluence that the Daily and 4H bearish move is in control and there is a HP that we are going to break the 4H INT Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹At Swing Extreme Discount 2️⃣ 🔹Price managed yesterday with US News and Lagarde Press Conference to create a Bullish BOS. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, where price pulled back to the Bullish Swing Extreme. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish based on the Daily Bearish Continuation, 4H Swing Pullback and the current market sentiment.
by Amr-Sadek
EUR/USD Gains Amid EU Trump Tariff FearsThe EUR/USD pair has risen to 1.0457, its highest in five weeks, as markets react positively to President Trump's decision to delay implementing strict tariffs. Initially, investors were concerned about the potential impact of protectionist policies on global growth and US inflation. However, Trump's pivot towards pro-business measures has bolstered market sentiment. Despite these developments, Trump has criticized the EU and suggested possible future tariffs, prompting ECB President Christine Lagarde to advise Europe to brace for potential trade actions. Lagarde has praised the decision to hold off on blanket tariffs. Concurrently, the ECB is expected to maintain its easing stance with a 25 basis points rate cut anticipated next week. As European leaders Macron and Scholz emphasize unity against US trade threats, the dollar index remains steady at 108.1 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring US-EU trade tensions and the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory.
by tastyfx
Why Tariffs & Why Now?Trump's tariffs aim to reshape international trade. They target imports from China, Mexico, and Canada starting February 1. The president sees tariffs as both a policy tool and a growing revenue stream. By imposing fees on foreign goods, he hopes to protect U.S. industries and encourage fair trade practices. U.S. manufacturers face an uneven playing field when compared to foreign counterparts like those in Mexico and China, due to differences in regulations and quality controls. For instance, China doesn’t have strict regulations like OSHA, which ensures worker safety and environmental standards in the U.S. Additionally, Chinese manufacturers often don't face the same level of quality control scrutiny that domestic manufacturing companies do. These disparities make it difficult to directly compare commodities, as U.S. manufacturers shoulder higher costs to comply with regulations, while foreign manufacturers benefit from fewer restrictions. As a result, domestic manufacturers and distributors struggle to compete on price, which is one of the reasons tariffs are viewed as protecting national strategic interest. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a CNBC interview today from Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum is taking place said, “I would put in perspective: If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it.” Citation: www.cnn.com Tariffs are not new to Trump’s strategy. The trade war with China in 2018 established a framework for using tariffs to gain leverage. This latest round builds on that approach, with broader goals for economic influence. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The reasoning ties to China’s fentanyl production and export practices. This decision follows conversations with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump urged stricter measures against fentanyl production and shipping, linking it to broader trade concerns. American businesses already face up to 25% tariffs on many Chinese imports. These new fees would add further strain to supply chains, raising prices for consumers. However, it will promote domestic manufacturing and bulster this important sector of the economy. Mexico and Canada are also in Trump’s sights. He plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from these neighboring countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed concerns saying that Canada supplies vital materials like oil, steel, and lumber. He went on to claim that the U.S. Tariffs could disrupt this trade and raise costs for American industries. Both nations aim to avoid direct trade conflict while protecting their economies from potential damage. Trump’s tariffs serve multiple purposes. They are designed to pressure trade partners, reduce deficits, and address what he views as unfair practices. Tariffs also play a role in domestic revenue generation. They are a tax on imported goods, and higher tariffs mean more money for government programs. Economists warn of potential downsides, including higher consumer prices. Some argue that the inflationary effects could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts. Let's explore that further now. What does the data say concerning Tariffs? The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Compiled through surveys of supply chain executives, it tracks new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. As a barometer of economic activity, the PMI provides valuable insight into broader economic trends and business conditions. Since the second half of 2022, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing struggles in the manufacturing sector. Factors such as high interest rates, which increase borrowing costs for businesses, and weaker global demand have weighed heavily on production. Tariffs, while aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing, could potentially exacerbate these challenges by raising input costs, further pressuring profit margins. Critics argue that higher tariffs could contribute to inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates and support broader economic growth. A strong dollar has also added to manufacturers' woes, echoing the environment during Trump's 2017 inauguration. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, reducing competitiveness for domestic manufacturers. In 2017, the dollar weakened after initial strength leading into the Trump inaguration, providing a temporary boost to manufacturing by making exports more affordable and imports pricier. A similar trend today could aid the sector, but its timing and magnitude remain uncertain, leaving manufacturers navigating a complex and challenging economic environment. A strong dollar is closely tied to domestic interest rates, as higher rates make U.S. financial assets more attractive to global investors. With the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, or Fed Funds Rate, at elevated levels, there is a strong incentive for multinational corporations and foreign investors to acquire dollars to purchase U.S. Treasuries. These assets offer a combination of safety and competitive yields, drawing capital inflows that drive up demand for the dollar. For instance, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.295%, significantly higher than China’s 2-year yield of 1.26%. This wide yield differential makes U.S. Treasuries a far more appealing investment, strengthening the dollar in the process. The Fed’s success in controlling inflation has further bolstered the dollar's appeal. As inflation trends downward toward the 2% target, the relative stability of the U.S. economy enhances confidence in dollar-denominated assets. This dynamic creates a feedback loop: high interest rates attract foreign capital, which strengthens the dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper. While this helps curb inflation, it poses challenges for domestic manufacturing by eroding competitiveness. This delicate balance underscores the complexity of managing monetary policy while considering its ripple effects on trade and the broader economy. One bright spot for domestic manufacturing is that it appears to have hit rock bottom after years of sharp declines. Similar to the transportation sector, which shows signs of recovery as reflected in the recent ATA tonnage index, manufacturing seems to be stabilizing. The worst may be over, and the sector is finally showing signs of life. New orders for manufacturing have moved back into growth mode, offering hope for a sustained rebound. This shift signals that demand is returning, which could provide a foundation for manufacturers to rebuild and capitalize on future opportunities.
TVC:DXY
by ZenMode
Trump Returns to the White House: Tariffs EyedToday’s inauguration is undoubtedly a big event for traders, analysts, and the global economy. Everyone is watching. Let’s be frank: regardless of your opinion of Donald Trump or his proposed policies, his Presidential election win over Democrat candidate Kamala Harris on 5 November 2024 was nothing short of remarkable. It was a sweeping victory, and Trump returns to the White House today. Trump’s inauguration is expected to begin at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST) and marks the start of his second term in office. Robust Economy Provides ‘Tariff’ Legroom for Trump While tariffs are undoubtedly inbound, it is unclear what plans Trump will pursue and when he will implement these strategies. Investors are concerned that imposing tariffs could stoke inflation and hinder consumption (and consequently put the brakes on economic growth). According to the latest data (December 2024), we have seen an uptick in US inflation. Year-on-year (YY), CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) rose for a third consecutive month to 2.9%, PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) also increased for a third straight month to 3.3%, and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) primary measure of inflation, the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures), is hovering just north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target at 2.4% (for November 2024). This, coupled with real US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) running at an annualised rate of 3.1% in Q3 24 and jobs data showing that the US economy added 256,000 new payrolls in December 2024, reveals Trump has legroom (some ‘cover’ if you will) to impose tariffs early on in his tenure. Trump Tariff ‘Threats’ So Far Speculation regarding the possibility of as many as 100 executive orders being signed today has been circulating the wires. Plenty of ambiguity is unquestionably present heading into today’s event, and the market dislikes uncertainty. Concerning tariff ‘plans’, Trump has floated several possible approaches, including 100% tariffs against BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) unless their governments commit to the US dollar (USD), as well as tariff threats against Canada, China, and Mexico. Trump voiced intentions of introducing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and adding an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. What Will I Be Watching Today? Today, I will primarily be looking for any direction on tariffs, particularly concerning Canada, Mexico, and China. Let’s assume Trump follows through on his threats to Canada and Mexico. A 25% tariff (or more) applied on goods from Canada and Mexico will prompt upside in currency pairs like the USD/CAD (US dollar versus the Canadian dollar) and USD/MXN (US dollar versus the Mexican peso) – for those who monitor implied volatility, check out USD/CAD; we are at levels not seen since early 2023! A 25% tariff on the aforesaid countries will also likely trigger a bid in the US Dollar Index and absorb offers around major resistance at 109.33. In contrast, major US equity indexes are expected to take a hit in this scenario. Another observation I feel needs some consideration is the USD positioning heading into this event. The USD is particularly stretched to the upside for those who monitor COT data (Commitment of Traders report). However, although this may be the case, I still expect USD outperformance on the back of 25% tariffs. Nevertheless, were Trump to pursue a lower tariff rate for Canada and Mexico or not to pursue tariffs at all, a considerable unwind in USD longs is possible, and downside in USD/CAD, USD/MXN, as well as the US Dollar Index, would be on the table (upside in US equities). A situation without tariffs would create considerable volatility and open the door to shorting opportunities in key currency pairs. Regarding China, if Trump were to follow through and impose a 10% additional tariff, this would likely send USD/CNY northbound (US dollar versus the Chinese yuan). Additionally, I expect the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) and NZD/USD (New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar) pairs to trade lower, given their trading relationships with China. I also believe US and Chinese equity markets will sell off. Less than a 10% tariff or no tariffs on China would likely underpin AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and the noted equity markets (but weigh on the USD/CNY). Looking closely at the S&P 500, you will note that longer-term weekly action ended last Friday in the shape of a bullish engulfing formation, following a shallow correction from all-time highs of 6,099. This, together with the clear-cut uptrend and daily price climbing above its 50-day simple moving average at 5,967 (and a lack of obvious daily resistance), places bulls in a favourable position to challenge all-time highs, technically speaking. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
SP:SPXLong
by FPMarkets
Gold - Ready to break higher as tariff tensions escalateGold has made modest ground through Asia, adding $8 on the day, however, the news flow certainly suggests a higher probability that we could soon see increasing buying flows, as investors start to seek out portfolio protection from the incoming tariff hostilities. News that China added to its gold reserves for a second consecutive month in December, taking its reserves rise to 73.29m ounces from 72.96m in November, is one supportive factor. Another could be its role as a hedge against the impending tariff news flow. Tariffs are well known to markets and the idea that Trump will come in on 20 January and put through orders to hit various economies with tariffs is firmly discounted. What is not priced is aspect of the counter response and the potential retaliation measures…. Of course, It’s not as if anyone expects those nations targeted by Trump’s tariffs to simply take it without a counter response, but it depends on what that response looks like and whether it leads to a painful and protracted tit for tat ‘battle’ that plays out on socials and the media headlines. Today, amid Justin Trudeau’s resignation, speculation in the Canadian press suggested the Canadians could preannounce a list of US goods that will face retaliatory tariffs in the case of Trump hitting them with 25% tax on all Canadian products. Publishing this list before Trump takes office would be seen as a step in aggression and would not be taken well by either Trump and Jamieson Greer. In China/HK, the US Defence department has added Tencent to its list of Chinese military companies operating in the US. Not a tariff as such, but this geopolitical development would be a big surprise, not just to the company (shares are -7.3%), but would be seen as an act in bad faith by the Chinese government. China themselves would be preparing for the worst when it comes to tariffs – they have not adhered to any of promises made in the prior agreements to buy certain US goods in a gesture to reduce the US trade deficit. Trump will use that as in his negotiations, and if there is one economy that is unlikely to get much of a cushion in the upcoming trade talks, its China. How will China respond? Depreciate the RMB, look at trade ties with other nations (we’re certainly seeing that with China-Mexico forging ties) or come back with counter tariffs on US imports. The Washington Post reported yesterday that Trump’s aides were exploring universal tariffs only on critical imports and not on all goods – a fact that that was quickly shut down by Trump. If the WaPo are credible, and many suspect this will be the case, it ultimately could be a positive for risk in the long run. However, in the near-term, if the Canadian news comes to fruition, I think it opens the idea that we should prepare now for tit for tat retaliation, and its here where investors may start to look at gold as a hedge against this impending hawkish news flow. So, while it all depends how hard ball each party wants to appear, it could create a new level of noise and uncertainty that could see higher market volatility and push gold through the range highs of $2726 and towards $2800.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
USD/MXN Soars Above 20.81266 Amid Tariff TensionsThe USD/MXN pair has surged above 20.81266, marking its weakest level since March 2022. This sharp movement is driven by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, which poses significant risks to Mexico's economy, particularly affecting the crucial auto sector. With the US accounting for over 83% of Mexico's exports, these tariffs could disrupt the trade balance and amplify peso volatility, leading to increased investor uncertainty and potential capital outflow. The Mexican peso has depreciated approximately 20% this year, compounded by concerns over fiscal expansion and a robust US dollar. Retaliatory tariff measures suggested by President Claudia Sheinbaum could further complicate the trade landscape, exacerbating tensions. Traders should closely monitor developments in US-Mexico trade policies and potential domestic policy responses in Mexico. Given the prevailing uncertainty, market participants may seek safer assets, which could further impact USD/MXN movements
by tastyfx
USD/CAD INSANE 22 Year Cup & Handle about to explode higherWith this week's announcement of 25% duties on MX & CA one would do well to survey the markets for opportunities. What better way to push through a trade of this nature than the FX markets?! The first thing to check in any FX trade is rate differentials: CA 10Y: 3.22% US 10Y: 4.27% MX 10Y: 9.99% The carry trade dictates we want to be long the currency with a higher yield, and our suspicion given tariffs tend to strengthen the country levying tariffs means we want to be long USD. MX offers a much higher yield so that would offset the potential in taking a short position on USD/MXN. CA on the other hand has a modest 1% discount to the US 10Y bond. Moreover, rates in the US look fairly steady, and pressure from the tariffs could cause CA to cut in support of its economy. A technical inspection of USD/CAD shows a staggering 22 year cup and handle formation on the pair. Now could be the right time to accumulate a leveraged FX position, as this trade could have years ahead of it with the advent of a 4 year Trump term.
Long
by quickshiftinn
2
USD/CAD price action: Trump's tariffs and the loonieUSD/CAD is approaching 1.4180, its lowest since mid-2020, influenced by Trump's recent 25% tariff hike impacting Canadian exports like oil, gas, and vehicles. While these tariffs pose challenges, Canada's economy shows resilience with higher-than-expected inflation and strong employment data, reducing the likelihood of significant rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Concurrently, the US dollar strengthens, supported by anticipated policy changes and tariff impacts.
by tastyfx
AUD Relief Rally to Get Chinese SupportMarkets have been dreadfully negative in recent weeks but we have in recent days begun a relief rally in US stocks and most FX pairs. AUD has led higher after new election and new China friendlier party in charge. On that note china made first high level contact in 2 years. We like AUD to rally with stocks and sentiment alone but the kicker would be if US drops tariffs on China and they reciprocate by dropping tariffs on Australia wine/coal. easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. “Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based o n a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party."
Long
by easyMarkets
Sell in May and Go Away? You Might Want to Watch These LevelsThe S&P 500 is coming under pressure as we enter May. The old adage “sell in May and go away,” worked last year, but this month has mostly been positive since 2013. There are obviously much bigger issues now than typical seasonality, especially after April’s huge bounce. The bulls have priced in significant recovery for the market, which creates the risk of selling the news as social distancing ends. It also opens the door to potentially new bearish narratives, like renewed trade tensions with China. If you’re waiting and watching to see how things play out, three potential areas could be important on the S&P 500’s chart. First is the current level around 2820, which is near the bottom from last August. Next is roughly 2728. This low from 11 months ago briefly provided support March 9-11 and again on April 21. It's also near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which has been knifing lower. Traders may want to test that line. If 2728 fails, the next clear support area could be much lower: between 2467 and 2480. The first line we outlined here . The second was a weekly low March 9-13.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation