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Liberation, Altercation & Boom: US China Trade talks CME_MINI:ES1! Pointing to our previously written blog post (Liberation, Altercation or Doom) on March 31st. A mix of all scenarios played out. Global universal tariffs with reciprocal tariffs layered on top. It resulted in a huge sell-off on April 2nd. After months of tit-for-tat tariffs and growing economic friction, the US and China have agreed to hit pause. In a joint statement that’s given markets some breathing room, both countries announced a 90-day suspension on a large portion of their punitive tariffs—an initial step toward dialing back tensions and restarting dialogue. Key Tariff Measures from US-China Joint Statement (90-Day Pause) US Tariff Reductions: Tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period. 24 percentage points suspended, leaving a 10% base tariff in place. China Tariff Reductions: Tariffs on US goods reduced from 125% to 10% for the same 90-day period. China also suspends 24 percentage points of additional ad valorem duties. Retains a 10% baseline tariff on US imports. Non-Tariff Measures: China to suspend or remove all non-tariff countermeasures imposed since April 2. Includes sanctions on certain US companies. Lifts export controls on some critical minerals. Timeline & Commitment: Both parties agree to implement these actions by May 14. Commitment to continue trade and economic talks through a new bilateral mechanism. Talks may be held in alternating locations (US/China) or via third-party venues. No Agreement On: Currency policy. E-commerce “de minimis” exemptions. Sector-specific tariff frameworks. Future Key Dates and Timeline: May - Potential US semiconductor tariffs. May/June - Potential US pharmaceutical tariffs. July 8th - 90-day tariff lowering for "worst offenders" expires. July 14th - US tariffs on Mexican agriculture goes into effect. August 10th - US-China tariff relief expires. Was this really mutual or just a game of chicken? There’s an argument to be made that this is more of a tactical pause than a full reconciliation. With China’s GDP in purchasing power parity terms now surpassing that of the US, and its continued technological advancements across sectors like aerospace, semiconductors, and critical minerals, the balance of economic leverage is shifting. For investors, this isn’t just about tariffs—it’s about the evolving structure of global trade. Geopolitical undercurrents continue to shape the backdrop. China’s strategic influence in regional security, technology supply chains, and commodity access adds another layer to its negotiating position. Recent developments—such as China's reassertion of dominance in strategic corridors and growing control over key mineral exports—suggest its economic posture is becoming more assertive. This, in turn, has implications for US firms dependent on Chinese inputs or facing retaliatory restrictions. In short, the 90-day window presents a tactical opportunity, but the structural story remains complex. Investors would be wise to monitor not just tariff updates, but broader shifts in trade alliances, export controls, and supply chain vulnerabilities—especially in sectors like tech, energy, and defense-adjacent industries. ES Futures: ES Futures and risk on assets are positive across the board following this announcement. Key Levels: Key LVN/ Key LIS: 5861-5837.25 200 Day MA: 5872.99 0.786 Fib Retracement level: 5921.75 0.618 Fib Retracement level: 5688.75 pWkHi: 5741 mCVAL 2025: 5639.75 Expectations for the week ahead: US CPI and Retail Sales data on the docket this week along with slew of FED speakers. Scenario 1: Risk on ES Futures get back above 200-day moving average clearing the key LVN resistance zone and our key LIS, head towards 0.786 Fib retracement level before pulling back and consolidating for the remainder of the week. Example trade: Entry: 5861 Stop: 5837 Target: 5921.75 Risk: 96 ticks Reward: 243 ticks Risk/Reward ratio: 2.5 R Scenario 2: Further consolidation Markets consolidate below the key LVN resistance zone and prior weekly high. Example Trade: Entry: 5837 Stop: 5861 Target: 5741 Risk: 96 ticks Reward: 384 ticks Risk/Reward ratio: 4 R Glossary: VA: Value Area VPOC: Volume Point of Control VAL: Value Area Low C: Composite (used as a prefix: VA, VAL, VAH, VPOC, etc.) mC: micro Composite (used as a prefix: mCVA, mCVAL, etc.) LNV: Low Volume Node LIS: Line in Sand Important Notes: These are example trade ideas not intended to be a recommendation to trade, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions. Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Canadian dollar shrugs after mixed employment numbersThe Canadian dollar is steady on Friday, after a two-day slid in which the loonie declined by 1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3911, down 0.09% on the day. On the data calendar, Canada released the employment report and there are no US economic releases. The April employment report didn't show much change and the Canadian dollar has shown little reaction. The economy added 7.4 thousand jobs, rebounding from the loss of 32.6 thousand in March and above the market estimate of 2.5 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed to 6.9%, higher than the market estimate of 6.8% and above the March reading of 6.7%. This was the highest level since Nov. 2024. The rise in unemployment is likely a reflection of the US tariffs. Canada's exports to the US were down in March, hurting businesses that export to the US. If the tariffs remain in place, weaker demand from the US could significantly damage Canada's economy. The Bank of Canada released its Financial Stability Report on Thursday. The BoC said that the financial system was strong but warned that a prolonged trade war between Canada and the US could lead to banks cutting back on lending, which would hurt consumers and businesses and damage the economy. The report said that the unpredictibility of US trade policy could cause further market volatility and was a risk to financial stability. The Federal Reserve maintained rates earlier this week and Fed Chair Powell said the Fed was in a wait-and-see-stance due to the uncertainty over the US tariffs. We'll hear from seven Fed members on Friday and Saturday, who may provide some insights on where rate policy is headed. The markets have priced in a rate hike in June at only 18%, down sharply from 58% a week ago. USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3928. Above, there is resistance at 1.3935 1.3922 and 1.3915 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 8, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing concerns over rising inflation and economic risks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans for policy changes. 🤝 U.S.-China Trade Talks Scheduled Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief negotiator Jamieson Greer are set to meet China's economic head He Lifeng in Switzerland, marking a potential step toward resolving trade tensions. The announcement has positively influenced global markets. 📈 Record $500 Billion Share Buyback Plans U.S. companies have announced a record-breaking $500 billion in share buybacks, reflecting growing hesitation to make capital investments amid economic uncertainty driven by President Trump's trade policies. Major contributors include Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Alphabet ( NASDAQ:GOOGL ), and Visa ( NYSE:V ). ⚠️ Recession Warnings from Economists Former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff warns that a U.S. recession is likely this summer, primarily driven by President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. He suggests that markets are overly optimistic and not adequately accounting for the risks. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, May 8: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET: Continuing Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET: Nonfarm Productivity (Q1 Preliminary) 8:30 AM ET: Unit Labor Costs (Q1 Preliminary) 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March Final) 10:30 AM ET: Natural Gas Storage ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
BMW: Stability, Innovation, and Opportunity in a Changing WorldIn times of market turbulence, great opportunities often lie hidden beneath temporary setbacks. Recent tariff-related ripples may have rattled BMW’s price, but for those looking to invest for the long haul, this dip is a golden opportunity to buy into one of the world’s most reliable automakers. www.youtube.com Resilient Amid Tariff Turbulence Global trade frictions and tariff uncertainties have impacted many companies, and BMW is no exception. Yet, unlike many peers that retreat during such times, BMW remains steadfast—confident in its strategy and outlook. With industry insiders predicting that these tariffs are only temporary, BMW’s fundamentals remain ironclad. Its robust global presence and proactive planning have positioned it to weather these short-term shocks and bounce back stronger. A Diverse, Future-Ready Product Lineup While some high-profile names in the auto space chase trends with empty promises, BMW consistently delivers. Rather than focusing solely on electric vehicles like Tesla, BMW offers a balanced portfolio: - Low-Emission Fossil Fuel Cars: Advanced, efficient engines that still serve a significant market segment. - Hybrid and Electric Vehicles: Designed for the evolving demand for cleaner mobility, these models blend performance with environmental responsibility. - Pioneering Hydrogen Technology: In collaboration with strategic partners, BMW is blazing a trail in hydrogen-powered vehicles—a potential game changer that ensures adaptability as the energy landscape shifts. This diverse lineup not only meets current market needs but also positions BMW at the forefront of future mobility, delivering real, tangible products that work. World-Class Manufacturing and Advanced Robotics BMW’s reputation for engineering excellence isn’t just about beautiful design—it’s rooted in its state-of-the-art manufacturing. The company has embraced advanced robotics and automation, ensuring precision, efficiency, and consistent quality. With production facilities spanning the globe—including significant plants in the United States—BMW solidifies its stature as a truly international enterprise. A Stable, Dividend-Paying Investment In a market that often rewards volatile “meme” stocks and empty promises, BMW stands apart as a beacon of stability. Unlike Tesla, which currently pays no dividends, BMW offers a juicy dividend yield of over 5%, providing investors with regular, attractive returns. This dividend, coupled with its solid operational fundamentals, makes BMW a safe bet—one that rewards shareholders consistently even during turbulent times. The Time to Invest Is Now BMW is more than just a carmaker—it’s a symbol of resilience, innovation, and pragmatic progress. While market chatter may cast doubt amid temporary tariff-induced lows, the company’s diversified product mix, global manufacturing footprint, and commitment to delivering real, advanced technology create a compelling investment thesis. For investors seeking stability, reliability, and the promise of long-term growth, BMW offers an opportunity to ride out the storm and benefit from a future where the company’s innovations in hybrids, electrics, and hydrogen continue to shape mobility worldwide. Now is the time to look beyond short-term market jitters and invest in a legacy built on quality, performance, and consistent returns. Embrace the opportunity—BMW’s bright future is not just a promise; it’s already in motion. XETR:BMW SIX:BMW NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:GM NYSE:F
XETR:BMWLong
by CassianDrake
1
Is this an Asian currency crisis in reverse? The Taiwan Dollar surged more than 5% against the U.S. dollar on Monday, briefly pushing USD/TWD below the 29.00 mark. The two-day rally—totaling nearly 10%—is the sharpest in over three decades. But Taiwan isn’t alone. A broader wave of U.S. dollar selling has lifted several Asian currencies, including the Singapore Dollar, South Korean Won, Malaysian Ringgit, Chinese Yuan, and Hong Kong Dollar. Goldman Sachs reported on Tuesday that investor positioning has shifted significantly, with clients moving from short yuan positions to long ones—suggesting a growing expectation of continued U.S. dollar weakness.
by BlackBull_Markets
US Stocks Pare Back All Tariff-Fueled Losses. Are We So Back?Remember “Liberation Day”? The one that felt more like Liquidation Day ? When markets tanked, tickers turned red, and you were afraid to check the markets on the next day? Well, turns out the rumors of the market’s demise were — once again — greatly exaggerated. If the average recession 10 years ago lasted two years, this year’s recession was approximately 37 minutes (more or less, depending on the day). Just a month ago, the S&P 500 SP:SPX started crumbling to the point it entered into correction territory (and then got out of correction territory ). Long story short, it took the punches, went down 15%, stood back up, and is now throwing jabs with a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004, when iPods were still a thing and Facebook was just for Harvard students. So… are we back? Like, really back? Let’s dig in. 💰 Trillions Lost, Trillions Found On April 2, President Donald Trump dropped the hammer — or rather, the online post — unveiling his “reciprocal tariffs,” which, in true Trumpian fashion, sounded equal parts policy and promo PR. Markets didn’t take it well. Global stocks collectively threw a tantrum. The S&P 500 dropped like it had a brick in its pocket . Financials cratered, energy took a gut punch, and tech? See for yourself — we don't want to talk about it . But now? The dip buyers are shopping up, scooping up, snapping up everything from banks to oil stocks to beleaguered megacaps. Suddenly, all those stock discounts look like missed opportunities, and the cash-on-the-sidelines traders are jumping in. 👌 Jobs Data: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold Friday was a good day. Why? Because April’s nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP report came in at 177,000 jobs — not too strong to trigger Fed-tightening fears, not too weak to imply economic decay. It was the goldilocks print. The number was a drop from March’s revised 185,000, but what mattered was the beat: economists had pencilled in just 135,000. Markets took that as permission to throw a party. The S&P 500 jumped 1.5%, reclaiming the level it had before Trump’s tariff tirade and putting an emphatic end to the selloff. Nine green days in a row? That’s a bull flex Wall Street hasn’t seen in two decades. 💥 Truth Social Posts That Move Markets Not to be left out of the celebration, Trump hopped onto Truth Social with his usual caps lock enthusiasm: “THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!” Sounds familiar? Still, even without a rate cut (for now), the market got what it wanted: signs that the US labor market isn’t collapsing, trade talks might be back on the table, and the economy hasn’t lost its way. 😌 A Global Sigh of Relief While the US led the rally, global markets also joined the rebound chorus. China’s commerce ministry chimed in Friday, saying Washington had expressed a “desire to engage in discussions.” In market-speak, that translates to: "Everyone calm down — we might not blow this up after all." It doesn’t take much to change sentiment. A tweet here, a headline there, a hint of diplomatic progress — suddenly risk appetite returns and everyone forgets they were panic-selling just three weeks ago. But don’t go lining up the espresso martinis just yet — not everything is fully recovered. The US dollar, for example, remains nearly 4% below its pre-tariff-announcement level. 🤔 We Are So… Back? So are we officially back? Short answer — “put the word out there that we back up” for now . Markets are up, volatility is down, and everyone’s pretending they didn’t sell the dip at the worst possible time. But — and you knew there’d be a “but” — caution still applies. Trade tensions aren’t over. The next Trump post could shake things again. The Fed hasn’t made its next move (that’s coming this Wednesday). And geopolitics remains a powder keg. Still, what this rebound tells us is clear: the market has resilience. Maybe not logic. Maybe not grace. But resilience? Yes. It also reminds us that trying to time news-driven selloffs is a dangerous game. Often, the best trades happen when fear peaks and everyone else is running for the hills. 👉 Final Thoughts: Watch the Calendar, Not the Chaos The key takeaway from this tariff-to-rally rollercoaster? Markets can move fast — but they can also recover faster. If you panicked, you probably sold low. If you stayed focused, checked the earnings calendar , and remembered that market narratives shift like wind direction, you're probably doing well right now. We’re so back — for now. But stay sharp. This market may have nine lives, but it also has the attention span of a toddler. Your move : Did you ride the dip? Buy the bounce? Or just mute the chaos and sip your coffee? Drop your best “Liberation Day to Redemption Rally” trade below.
SP:SPX
by TradingView
20
Is the Golden Arches Losing Its Shine?McDonald's, a global fast-food icon, recently reported its most significant decline in U.S. same-store sales since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The company experienced a 3.6 percent drop in the quarter ending in March, a downturn largely attributed to the economic uncertainty and diminished consumer confidence stemming from President Donald Trump's tariff policies. This performance indicates that the unpredictable nature of the trade war is prompting consumers to curb discretionary spending, directly impacting even seemingly resilient sectors like fast food through reduced customer visits. The link between sinking consumer sentiment and tangible sales figures is evident, as economic analysts note the conversion of "soft data" (sentiment) into "hard data" (sales). While some commentators suggest that McDonald's price increases have contributed to the sales slump, the timing of the decline aligns closely with a period of heightened tariff-related anxiety and a contraction in the U.S. economy during the first quarter. This suggests that while pricing is a factor, the broader macroeconomic environment shaped by trade tensions plays a critical role. In response, McDonald's emphasizes value offerings to attract and retain customers navigating a challenging economic landscape. The company's struggles mirror those of other businesses in the hospitality sector, which also report reduced consumer spending on dining out. The situation at McDonald's serves as a clear illustration of how complex trade policies and the resulting economic uncertainty can have far-reaching consequences, affecting diverse industries and altering consumer behavior on a fundamental level.
NYSE:MCDShort
by UDIS_View
USOIL CAUTION! BREAK - TEST - GO!This is my new updated chart of Oil. Trump's "Drill baby Drill" interfering with the free market is the absolute worst thing he could do. His ridiculous tariffs will put us in an economic depression! Oil prices are driven by demand! As I have mentioned here on TV so many times before! Increasing supply while heading into a recession is the dumbest thing possible! You never want to consume your own oil when you can consume others first! Simultaneously, F your own nation's oil company's profit margins and gov tax revenue! This is why we shouldn't put toddlers as POTUS! Anyway!!! This is a break test go! setup! If you haven't seen it before, here is an example I recently posted with AAPL. Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets too. ))
TVC:USOILShort
by RealMacro
2
SPX: Good push at EOD 4/30, but…Possible H&S? Hear me outGood push at end of day on 4/30 at close. Zooming out, it’s starting look like it’s forming a H&S. I’m starting to see a lot of people flipping bearish as well. But, also near close today, volume was not promising, declining at the close. I swung short-term puts on SPY, I like SPX puts for a day trade due to this formation but this H&S can possibly out within the end of week with more data and uncertainty or the following week. I’m short at the touch of the light red line: 5655.79 to the downside. Gaps below 5354.76, 5206.44 Would say by EOW to next week, if we pull back, may form/complete the right shoulder. Do your DD! Let me know your thoughts! #NFA
SP:SPXShort
by sweatytrigger
DXY Printing a Bullish Triangle??The DXY on the 1 Hr Chart is forming a potential continuation pattern, the Bullish Triangle! Currently Price is testing the 99.6 - 99.8 Resistance Area and battling with the 200 EMA and 34 EMA Band. The reaction to this conjunction could be pivotal in who overcomes: Buyers or Sellers. Now during the formation of the potential pattern, Price on the RSI has stayed relatively Above the 50 mark being Bullish Territory suggesting Buyers could win the Bull-Bear battle. Until Price breaks either the Resistance Area or the Rising Support, we will not have a definitive direction in which USD will strengthen or weaken. *Wait For The Break* -If Price breaks the Resistance Area, USD will strength possibly heading to the 100.8 - 101 Area -If Price breaks the Rising Support, USD will weaken possibly heading to the 98.5 - 98.3 Area Fundamentally, it is said China and USA are possibly getting closer to potentially ending the Reciprocal Tariff War going on with both sides willing to negotiate. With the USA being the #1 Consumer of Goods globally, other economies can not afford us to not buy their things so I continue to see the Tariff War more as a Strong-Arm for the USA to be able to negotiate better terms! USD News: JOLTS - Tuesday, Apr. 29th GDP - Wednesday, Apr. 30th Unemployment Claims / ISM Manu. PMI - Thursday, May 1st Non-Farm Employment Change / Avg Hourly Earnings / Unemployment Rate - Friday, May 2nd For all things Currency, Keep it Current, With Novi_Fibonacci
TVC:DXYLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
3
Navigating Trump Tariffs on the Dow JonesNavigating the movements of the **US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)** can be challenging, especially amid shifting economic policies. The Dow, which tracks 30 major U.S. companies, is highly sensitive to trade policies, corporate earnings, and geopolitical risks. Trump’s plan to impose **10% across-the-board tariffs** and **60%+ tariffs on Chinese goods** has sparked concerns about inflation, supply chain disruptions, and retaliatory trade measures. Investors are closely watching how these policies could impact multinational companies within the index, particularly those reliant on global trade, such as **Boeing, Apple, and Caterpillar**. For everyday Americans, higher tariffs could mean **rising prices on imported goods**, from electronics to household items, worsening inflation. While tariffs aim to protect domestic industries, they often lead to **higher production costs** for businesses that rely on foreign materials, potentially triggering job cuts or reduced consumer spending. The stock market’s reaction—volatility in the US30—reflects these uncertainties, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth against potential benefits for U.S. manufacturers. Traders navigating the US30 must monitor **Fed policy, corporate earnings, and trade war developments**. If tariffs escalate, defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare) may outperform, while industrials and tech could face pressure. Long-term investors might see dips as buying opportunities, but short-term traders should prepare for turbulence. Ultimately, Trump’s tariff policies could reshape market dynamics, making adaptability key for those trading the Dow.
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Education
by KeN-WeNzEl
UK retail sales beat forecast, pound edges lowerThe British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3214, down 0.17% on the day. UK retail sales were a ray of sunshine in March. Monthly, retail sales rose 0.4%, beating the market estimate of -0.4% but below the revised 0.7% increase in February. Clothing sales showed strong growth as shoppers took advantage of the sunny weather. Annualized, retail sales rose 2.6% from a revised 1.8% gain in February and above the market estimate of 1.8%. This was the strongest gain in three months. The strong retail sales was a pleasant surprise but the consumer economy remains fragile. The GfK consumer confidence index deteriorated in April to -23 from -19 and below the market estimate of -22. This was the lowest level since November 2023. Consumers are concerned over the rising cost of living and worsening global trade tensions which has been fuelled by President Trump's tariffs. The GfK survey found that consumers are anxious that inflation will continue to rise due to the US tariffs. The Bank of England is following trade tensions carefully as well. On Thursday, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the BoE was "quite focused on the growth shock" for the UK from the tariffs, although he said the UK was not close to a recession. If the global trade war intensifies, it will weigh on UK growth but will also push inflation lower. President Trump's tariff policy is expected to raise inflation and consumers are anxious that inflation will rise sharply. The UoM consumer inflation expectations index jumped to 6.7% in the initial April release, up from 5.0% in March. Today's final release is expected to confirm this figure, which would mark the highest level since Nov. 1981.
by OANDA
Haven play: Long yen back in focusAmid growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. equities and the US dollar, investors could be returning to a traditional defensive strategy: going long on the Japanese yen. While some analysts believe the recent yen rally is not yet overstretched, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has noted that Japan’s central bank is likely to push back the timing of further interest rate hikes, a factor that could limit the yen's potential to strengthen further. As such, we are looking at the support level of 140.00 and the bearish-yen sentiment seen today, and the potential resistance at 144.80. Up next: a scheduled meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent later this week.
by BlackBull_Markets
British PMIs fall, Trump says won't fire PowellThe British pound dropped as much as 0.7% earlier today and is under pressure. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3265, down 0.45% on the day. The pound has taken advantage of broad US dollar weakness recently, rising 3% in the month of April. On Tuesday, the pound climbed as high as 1.3423, its highest level since September 2024. UK PMIs reports softened in April, another reminder that that the UK economy is struggling. The Services PMI fell to 48.9 from 52.5 in March, below the market estimate of 51.3. There are growing fears that the UK will fall into recession and global economic uncertainty has led to decreased business activity. The Manufacturing PMI eased to 44.0, matching the market estimate but lower than the March reading of 44.9. This was the lowest reading since August 2023 as the deteriorating global market outook has reduced demand for UK exports. The increase in employer tax contributions has hurt employment and lowered confidence. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8, down from 3.3% in January. The downgrade was in response to US tariffs and the IMF warned that an escalation of trade tensions between the US and other countries would create further market volatility and lead to even lower growth. US stock markets are sharply higher on Wednesday after President Trump said that he had no intention to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump had intensified his attacks on Powell in recent days, resulting in sharp slides in US equity markets and the US dollar. Trump also said that China tariffs would drop "substantially" and investors hope this signals a de-escalation in the nasty trade war between the US and China.
by OANDA
Why Did 3M Stock Soar Despite Tariff Clouds?Shares of industrial giant 3M Co. experienced a significant rally following the release of its first-quarter 2025 financial results. The surge was primarily driven by the company reporting adjusted earnings and total net sales that exceeded Wall Street's expectations. This performance signaled a stronger operational footing than analysts had anticipated. The positive results stemmed from several key factors highlighted in the report. 3M demonstrated solid organic sales growth and achieved notable adjusted operating margin expansion. This margin improvement reflects the effectiveness of management's ongoing cost-cutting initiatives and strategic focus on operational efficiency, contributing directly to double-digit growth in earnings per share during the quarter. While the company did warn about potential future impacts on 2025 profit due to rising global trade tensions and tariffs, management also detailed proactive strategies to mitigate these risks. Plans include supply chain adjustments, pricing actions, and leveraging their global manufacturing network, potentially increasing U.S. production. The company maintained its full-year adjusted earnings guidance, notably stating that this outlook already incorporates the anticipated tariff effects. Investors likely responded positively to the combination of strong quarterly performance and clear actions to address identified headwinds.
NYSE:MMMLong
by UDIS_View
xauusd what is happening?Gold (XAU/USD) Market Overview – April 22, 2025 🧨 Geopolitical & Trade Tensions Ongoing US-China trade disputes and President Trump’s tariff policies continue to amplify uncertainty. Market chatter on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) reflects investor anxiety over potential global trade disruptions, increasing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. 💵 US Dollar Dynamics The US dollar remains weak, partly due to Trump’s continued criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his calls for rate cuts. A weaker dollar supports gold by making it more attractive to international investors. 🏦 Institutional & Central Bank Demand Strong ETF inflows: Over 23 tonnes added in a single session, suggesting large-scale accumulation. Central banks, particularly China, continue adding gold to reserves—contributing to bullish long-term sentiment. 🧯 Macro Environment Persistent inflation concerns and dovish central bank policies are reinforcing gold's status as an inflation hedge. Markets await US retail sales data and Fed Chair Powell’s speech, which could introduce volatility or direction. 📊 Technical Analysis of XAU/USD @ $3,424 📈 Trend & Chart Structure Gold is trading in a well-defined ascending channel, with a recent breakout above $3,400 confirming bullish structure. However, the presence of a rising wedge pattern and overbought conditions warns of a potential short-term correction. 🔐 Key Support & Resistance Levels Type Level Notes Support 1 $3,400 Psychological level & prior breakout point Support 2 $3,320–$3,325 Fibonacci zone and fair value gap Support 3 $3,296–$3,284 April 18 low; deeper support Resistance 1 $3,445 Immediate resistance Resistance 2 $3,500 All-time high; psychological milestone Long-term $3,550–$3,637 Medium-term upside targets 📟 Indicators & Volume Analysis RSI: >70 on short-term charts → Overbought, suggesting risk of pullback. MACD: Bullish crossover intact, but declining momentum is a caution flag. Moving Averages: Price is well above the 30-EMA ($3,265) and 200-EMA ($3,163) — strongly bullish. Volume: Recent rally on declining volume = possible divergence, implying weakening buying strength. 📌 Trading Scenarios ✅ Bullish Case If XAU/USD holds above $3,400 and breaks $3,445, next targets = $3,500 → $3,550 → $3,600. Entry: Wait for a pullback to $3,400–$3,405 or bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing candle, rising volume). Stop Loss: Below $3,390 Rationale: Strong uptrend + safe-haven flows + USD weakness = sustained bullish bias. 🚫 Bearish Case If price breaks below $3,400 with momentum, correction toward $3,325 or $3,296 is likely. Entry: Below $3,400 after confirmation (e.g., high-volume bearish candle) Stop Loss: Above $3,430 Rationale: Overbought RSI + volume divergence → short-term profit-taking or macro catalyst risk. 📈 Volatility Note Recent daily swings around 2.25% — use tight stop-losses and risk/reward ≥ 1:2. 📅 Key Events to Watch US Retail Sales Data Fed Chair Powell’s Speech US-China trade news Dollar index (DXY) movement 📅 Medium-Term Outlook (1–3 Months) Projected move toward $3,600+ remains valid due to: Global uncertainty Persistent inflation Central bank buying Key swing support: $3,137 Upside resistance: $3,500 → $3,600 ⚠️ Risks & Reversals Risk Factor Impact on Gold US-China Trade Deal ↓ Demand (safe-haven outflows) Strong US Economic Data ↑ Dollar → ↓ Gold Hawkish Fed Comments ↓ Gold Continued Overbought Status Pullback/Cool-off likely 🎯 Conclusion Gold (XAU/USD) is in a strong long-term uptrend, currently consolidating near $3,424. While bullish fundamentals support a move toward $3,500–$3,600, technical overbought signals and volume divergence suggest caution in the short term. #xauusd #gold #usd #tariff #tradingview
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
5
Yen extends gains, BOJ Core CPI lower than expectedThe Japanese yen has rallied for a third straight day. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 140.38, down 0.33% on the day. The yen has climbed 1.3% since Thursday, as the US dollar is under pressure against the major currencies. BoJ Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, remained at 2.2% for a third consecutive month in March, shy of the forecast of 2.4%. This follows Japan's National Core CPI, which rose 3.2% y/y, matching expectations but higher than the 3.0% gain in February. National CPI eased to 3.6%, down from 3.7% in February and below the market estimate of 3.7%. The inflation data comes a week before the BoJ's policy meeting next week. The central bank has signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates as wages and inflation have been rising. However, the risks to inflation and growth from US tariffs have muddied the rate outlook and the BoJ may decide to push off another hike until later in the year. The finance ministers of Japan and the US will meet later this week, as Tokyo looks to carve out some tariff exemptions. The BoJ is likely to sit tight and see if the talks lead to a breakthrough. The US is expected to bring up the exchange rate, as President Trump has accused Japan of deliberately keeping the yen weak in order to protect its export sector. There are no key releases out of the US today, but we'll hear from three FOMC members later today. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May at 10%, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in June.
by OANDA
What if Kid Rock ran the Fed?Gold has broken above $3,400 for the first time, setting a new all-time high as investor confidence in the United States continues to decline. Citi forecasts gold could reach $3,500 within the next three months. However, this projection might be underestimating Trump’s potential to further undermine confidence in the US. On Monday, President Trump intensified pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. Last week the President said, "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough,". A move to dismiss Powell would likely trigger significant market volatility. Markets generally view Powell as a stabilizing figure, and history shows that a less independent central bank is less effective at keeping inflation under control. I think it might be fair to wonder what a Federal Reserve Chairman Kid Rock would do for the price of gold.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Yen surges to five-month high as US dollar under pressureThe Japanese yen came flying out of the gates on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.00, down 0.79%. Earlier the yen strengthened to 140.47, its strongest level since Sep. 2024. The US dollar has posted losses against the major currencies on Monday, including against the yen. Investors gave the US dollar a thumbs down after President Trump's top economic advisor said that Trump was considering the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump has been increasingly critical of Powell for not lowering interest rates and said last week that "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough". Trump fired his latest salvo after Powell said that US tariffs would raise inflation and that the Fed could find itself having to balance keeping a lid on inflation and supporting economic growth. Powell added that tariffs are "likely to move us further away from our goals". Powell has insisted that he isn't going anywhere and will serve until the end of his term in May 2026. Can Trump legally fire Powell? That is a complicated legal question, but the markets aren't waiting for an answer and the US dollar has retreated. Trump's attacks on Powell threaten the independence of the US central bank and is eroding confidence in the US dollar. The dollar is also under pressure from Trump's tariff policy, which has dampened the confidence of foreign investors. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 141.16. Below, there is support at 140.14. There is resistance at 142.62 and 143.64
by OANDA