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Tariffs

Bitcoin Eyes $81,500 Resistance Following Trump's Tariff Pause. 🚨 **Market Update** 🚨 President Donald Trump has announced a 90-day pause on the full effect of new tariffs for certain countries, and the markets are reacting strongly! 📈 Both the stock and crypto markets are surging as a result. Right now, **Bitcoin** is testing the $81,500 resistance level on the 1-hour timeframe. 💥 Our trading strategy: let it break the resistance and sustain above it, then look for a solid entry on the pullback. Stay tuned and trade wisely! 🚀💰
Long
by Kartik_Elkunchwar
Trump's Tariff Wars : Why It Is Critical To Address Global TradeThis video, a continuation of the Trump's Tariff Wars video I created last week, tries to show you why it is critically important that we, as a nation, address the gross imbalances related to US trade to global markets that are resulting in a $1.5-$1.8 TRILLION deficit every fiscal year. There has been almost NOTHING done about this since Trump's last term as President. Our politicians are happy to spend - spend - spend - but none of them are worries about the long-term fiscal health of the US. (Well, some of them are worried about it - but the others seem to be completely ignorant of the risks related to the US). Trump is raising this issue very early into his second term as president to protect ALL AMERICANS. He is trying to bring the issue into the news to highlight the imbalances related to US trade throughout the world. When some other nation is taking $300B a year from the us with an unfair tariff rate - guess what, we need to make that known to the American consumer because we are the ones that continue to pay that nation the EXTRA every year. Do you want to keep paying these other nations a grossly inefficient amount for cheap trinkets, or do you want our politicians and leaders to take steps to balance the trade deficits more efficiently so we don't pass on incredible debt levels to our children and grandchildren? So many people simply don't understand what is at risk. Short-term - the pain may seem excessive, but it may only last 30, 60, 90 days. Long-term - if we don't address this issue and resolve it by negotiating better trade rates, this issue will destroy the strength of the US economy, US Dollar, and your children's future. Simply put, we can't keep going into debt without a plan to attempt to grow our GDP. The solution to this imbalance is to grow our economy and to raise taxes on the uber-wealthy. We have to grow our revenues and rebalance our global trade in an effort to support the growth of the US economy. And, our politicians (till now) have been more than happy to ignore this issue and hide it from the American people. They simply didn't care to discuss it or deal with it. Trump brought this to the table because it is important. I hope you now see HOW important it really is. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
19
We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA - Bullish?We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA following its rally since early 2024. The stock has broken through key levels and managed to hold within the resistance zone between $80 and $90. We will most likely enter a sideways movement until the situation regarding tariffs becomes clearer. This could extend into June, after which we might expect an upward move toward the $132.95 zone. By early 2026, we are likely to see a new all-time high, especially if the trade tensions and tariffs between China and the US are resolved and overall uncertainty decreases.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by larsnicog
Temu's Price Magic: Shattered by Tariffs?PDD Holdings, the parent entity behind the popular e-commerce platform Temu, confronts a severe operational challenge following the recent imposition of stringent US tariffs targeting Chinese goods. These trade measures, particularly the dismantling of the "de minimis" rule for Chinese shipments, directly threaten the ultra-low-cost business model that fueled Temu's rapid expansion in the US market. The elimination of the previous $800 duty-free threshold for individual packages strikes at the core of Temu's logistical and pricing strategy. The impact stems from newly enacted, exceptionally high tariffs on these formerly exempt low-value parcels. Reports indicate rates escalating to 90% of the item's value or a significant flat fee, effectively nullifying the cost advantages Temu leveraged by shipping directly from manufacturers in China. This fundamental shift disrupts the financial viability of Temu's model, which relied heavily on tariff-free access to deliver goods at minimal prices to American consumers. Consequently, significant price increases for products sold on Temu appear almost inevitable as PDD Holdings grapples with these substantial new costs. While the company's official response is pending, economic pressures suggest consumers will likely absorb these charges, potentially eroding Temu's primary competitive advantage and slowing its growth momentum. PDD Holdings now faces the critical task of navigating this disrupted trade landscape and adapting its strategy to maintain its market position amidst heightened protectionism and geopolitical tension.
NASDAQ:PDDShort
by UDIS_View
EURGBP Discretionary Analysis: Eyes on the SupplyIt's that feeling when you just know the tide's about to turn (like when you're waiting for the wind to pass but can already smell the rain). EURGBP is giving off that "Next stop? Supply zone" kind of vibe. I see it pushing up to test that level, like it's gearing up for a showdown. If I'm right, I'll be eyeing some clean entries to make a move. If I'm wrong, I'll just grab a coffee and wait for the next opportunity to roll in. Just my opinion, not financial advice.
Long
by davidavasalcai
29
So here’s what I’m doing: Not Panicking.This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research. Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this. In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote? I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them. Now, that’s something I can get behind. Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this: ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A” Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital. It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21% Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41% If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders? Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x. In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine. Would you buy Company A? Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on. I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²” She was like, “oh, that makes sense”. The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
2
United Postal Service | UPS | Long at $92.00The United Postal Service NYSE:UPS finally closed out the last remaining price gap on the daily chart (since 2020) and entered my "crash" simple moving average zone. With a P/E of 15x, earnings forecast growth of 8.12% per year, and a dividend over 6%, NYSE:UPS "may" be a good buy and hold through these tumultuous economic/trade war times. I wouldn't place a continued price drop near $75-$85 out of the question, but I'm not in the game of calling bottoms. At $92.00, NYSE:UPS is in a personal buy zone. Word of caution: if this stock really tanks due to trade issues and massive recession, $50s... Targets: $108.00 $120.00 $133.00
NYSE:UPSLong
by WorthlessViews
1
New Zealand's central bank expected to lower rates by a quarter-The New Zealand dollar has rebounded on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5615, up 1.3% on the day. This follows a 5% plunge over the past two days. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter-point at its rate meeting on Wednesday. The markets have priced in a quarter-point cut at 75% and a jumbo half-point cut at 25%. The RBNZ slashed rates by a half-point in February, a response to weak economic growth and an inflation rate of around 2%, the midpoint of its target band. The market meltdown and escalation in trade tensions due to new US tariffs could force the RBNZ to lower rates faster and deeper than previously expected. There is massive uncertainty in the air and the central bank will have to re-evaluate inflation and growth expectations, given the tariff turmoil. There is growing talk of a global recession, which would badly hurt New Zealand's export-reliant economy. China is New Zealand's largest trade partner and the escalating trade tensions between the US and China could turn into a New Zealand nightmare. China has imposed 34% reciprocal tariffs on the US, drawing a threat from President Trump that he will counter with a 50% tariff if the Chinese tariff is not removed. The RBNZ is dealing with the tariff crisis without Governor Adrian Orr, who suddenly resigned last month in the middle of his five-year term. The government has appointed Christian Hawkesby as Governor for a six-month term, after serving as the acting governor after Orr resigned.
by OANDA
GOLD H2 Outlook: Correction in progress 2900 USD in sight🏆 Gold Market Update (April 8th, 2025) 📊 Technical Outlook Update ▪️5 wave impulse completed ▪️Correction as expected previously ▪️currently trading at 3 000 usd ▪️Profit taking in progress now ▪️Price Target BEARS 2850/2900 USD ▪️Strategy: SHORT SELL rips/rallies ▪️target is 2900 USD 📢 Gold Market Update – April 2025 📈 Gold hits all-time high above $3,100/oz 🚀 Surge driven by Trump’s new global tariffs and rising trade war fears 🌍 Investors seek safety amid geopolitical uncertainty 📉 Pullback follows rally 💸 Sharp drop due to profit-taking and risk sentiment rebound 🔁 Analysts remain bullish as Fed rate cuts and tensions linger 🏦 Central banks keep buying 🛡️ China & others increasing gold reserves to hedge inflation & currency risks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
24
Canadian dollar slides as Canada's job growth declinesThe Canadian dollar has stabilized on Monday after declining close to 1% on Friday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4225, up 0.23% on the day. It has been a roller-coaster for the Canadian dollar, which jumped 1.1% on Thursday but gave up almost all of the gains a day later. Canada's economy shed 32.6 thousand jobs in March, the biggest decline since August 2022. This was a sharp reversal from the 1.1 thousand gain in February and much lower than the market estimate of 12 thousand. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.6% and the participation rate ticked lower to 65.2% from 65.3%. The employment data points to weakness in the labor market and the economic chill from the latest US tariffs could lead to further deterioration of the employment landscape. Businesses are holding back on investment and hiring due to the economic uncertainty and the plunge in oil prices will hurt the economy, as Canada is a major oil producer. US nonfarm payrolls surprised on the upside with a gain of 228 thousand, up from a revised 117 thousand in February and above the market estimate of 135 thousand. This was the strongest nonfarm payroll reading in three months. The positive employment report was overshadowed by the latest round of US tariffs which have sent the financial markets tumbling lower. There are increasing fears that the US tariffs and expected counter-tariffs could upend the US economy and tip it into a recession. Investors are hoping that the Trump administration will reduce the tariffs or at least announce negotiations will take place with targeted countries. So far, however, Trump has sounded defiant and said that the tariffs will stay in place.
by OANDA
VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Tariff UncertaintyThe VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Uncertainty Surge on Tariff Announcement The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the “fear gauge,” surged past the 60 threshold this week—the highest level since August 5, 2023—as markets reacted violently to an unexpected announcement by the U.S. President regarding global tariffs. The sharp rise in the VIX, which measures market expectations of 30-day volatility, underscores the profound uncertainty now gripping investors, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points and the S&P 500 entering correction territory. The trigger? A sweeping tariff policy unveiled by the administration on Liberation Day, a symbolic holiday marking a shift in economic strategy, which has sent shockwaves through global markets. The VIX at 60: A Sign of Extreme Fear The VIX typically hovers around 15-20 under normal conditions, reflecting moderate uncertainty. However, readings above 30 indicate heightened anxiety, and levels above 50 are rare, historically occurring during major crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the 2020 pandemic sell-off. This week’s spike to 60 marks a dramatic escalation, signaling a market gripped by fear. Analysts attribute this to the suddenness and scale of the President’s tariff announcement, which caught investors off guard after a period of relative calm. The Liberation Day Tariff Announcement On Liberation Day—a holiday commemorating historical freedoms—the administration announced a 25% tariff on a broad range of imports from key trading partners, including China, the EU, and others, effective immediately. The move, framed as a “national economic security initiative,” aims to curb perceived trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. However, its immediate impact has been severe: Scope and Speed: The tariffs apply to $500 billion in goods, targeting sectors like semiconductors, automotive parts, and consumer electronics. The abrupt implementation, with no prior warning or negotiation, has left businesses scrambling to adjust supply chains. Political Context: The announcement coincided with domestic political tensions, including debates over inflation and job creation. The White House argued the tariffs would “level the playing field” for American workers, but critics warned of retaliation and inflationary pressures. Market Chaos: Sectors Under Siege The tariff shockwave rippled across asset classes: Equities: The S&P 500 fell 2+% on Monday, its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech stocks reliant on global supply chains, plunged over 5%. Sectors: Semiconductor firms like Intel and AMD tanked, while automakers such as Ford and Tesla declined sharply. Expert Analysis: A Volatility Tipping Point Historical Parallels and Economic Risks The current volatility mirrors past crises: 2008 Financial Crisis: The VIX hit 80 as Lehman Brothers collapsed, but the current crisis stems from policy, not financial contagion. 2020 Pandemic Sell-Off: The VIX spiked to 82 as lockdowns paralyzed economies, but today’s uncertainty is self-inflicted. However, the tariff-driven uncertainty poses unique risks: Inflation: Higher import costs could push inflation back above 4%, complicating the Fed’s rate-cut path. Global Growth: The World Bank warns that trade wars could shave 2% off global GDP by 2025. Emerging markets, reliant on exports, face currency crises. Looking Ahead: Can Calm Return? Markets may stabilize if the administration signals flexibility. Potential pathways include: Negotiations: A G20 summit in September offers a venue for de-escalation, though diplomatic progress is uncertain. Policy Reversal: If tariffs are delayed or narrowed, the VIX could retreat. However, the President’s rhetoric suggests a hardline stance. Corporate Adaptation: Companies might pivot to domestic suppliers, but such shifts take years, prolonging volatility. Conclusion: A New Era of Uncertainty The VIX at 60 marks a pivotal moment. Markets are now pricing in not just the immediate tariff impact but a broader shift toward protectionism and policy-driven instability. For investors, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. While short-term volatility may ebb with reassurances, the long-term consequences—trade wars, inflation, and geopolitical friction—could redefine global economics for years. With Liberation Day’s tariffs reshaping the landscape, one thing is clear: the era of low volatility is over. The question now is whether policymakers can navigate this new turbulence—or if markets will remain hostages to fear.
TVC:VIX
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Retests 77k Neckline Support! This is huge!Traders, As we watch the tariff FUD destroy traders everywhere, I want you to be aware that we have just landed on something extremely critical for support, the neckline of our long-standing CUP and HANDLE that began forming at the end of 2021. The neckline currently stands at an approximate price of 76-77k. If you'll remember in my last post a couple of days ago regarding the SPY, I suggested that SPY could drop as low as 467 and Bitcoin could hit 76k. Bitcoin has arrived at it's 76k support and if this doesn't hold, crypto is in serious trouble. I am not trying to be an alarmist here. You all know that I am an eternal optimist when it comes to crypto, but in this case we have to prepare our trades accordingly. The break of 76k support could send Bitcoin and crypto down as far at 50k. I know this is hard to believe. Even as I am typing this I am having a hard time grasping that we'd get there, but this is what I am seeing and I have to inform you all accordingly. If we're lucky, that neckline holds. But plan accordingly. ✌️Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
BTC - One More Leg...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 BTC has been overall bearish , trading within the falling channel marked in red. But the big question is — where could the potential bottom be? 👉 I’m watching the $70,000 zone! Here’s why: The $70,000 area is a key confluence zone — it aligns with the lower red trendline, horizontal support, a psychological round number, and a potential demand zone. 📚 According to my trading style: As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I’ll be looking for bullish reversal setups — such as a double bottom pattern, trendline break, and more. 📚 Reminder: Always stick to your trading plan — entry, risk management, and trade management are key. Good luck, and happy trading! All Strategies Are Good, If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TICKMILL:BTCUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
20
US Stocks Wipe Out $6.6 Trillion in Two Days—What Just Happened?Shoutout to the real MVPs of April: the traders who did absolutely nothing. You market wizards, zen masters of the sidelines — while others were busy buying the dip that kept on dipping, you outperformed the S&P 500 SP:SPX , avoiding the nastiest market faceplant since the Covid crash of March 2020. Since April 2, Liquidation Day , Liberation Day , the S&P 500 SP:SPX has nosedived a brutal 10%. That’s officially a correction — the kind that makes you stare out your window like a philosopher, questioning your life choices, your portfolio, and whether you really needed that Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA call. This isn’t just a dip. It’s a market reality check served with extra salt. So raise a (half empty?) glass to the ones who stayed flat — you just made Warren Buffett proud . In a world of overtrading, doing nothing was the most alpha move of all. Everyone who checked the market at least once on Thursday or Friday (even today when futures markets were all red ) knows what that is all about. It’s Trump’s tariff rollout coming like a wrecking ball. While the US President portrays his efforts as a fair and even lenient response to other countries’ trade policies with the US, investors don't seem to think so. In just two days, Thursday and Friday, the US stock market washed out $6.6 trillion. The violent selloff threw the Nasdaq Composite NASDAQ:IXIC into a bear market (down 20% from its peak) and the S&P 500 into correction territory. The broad-based Wall Street darling waved goodbye to 6% on Friday, extending its 4.8% loss from the previous day. On Thursday, Trump unveiled his new plan to boost the US economy through reciprocal tariffs. China got hammered with a total of 54% , while Europe wasn’t spared either, slapped with a flat 20%. Some uninhabited islands also made the list — Heard and McDonald Islands (Australia's icy outpost) and Jan Mayen (Norway's frozen Arctic rock) got served a 10% tariff. Now, the thing with tariffs is, they tend to backfire. Because they are paid by the party receiving them, i.e. US companies, they hike the prices of imported goods, squeeze consumers, and isolate the country imposing them. They strain international trade relationships, disrupt supply chains, and — as history shows — often spark retaliation. And that’s exactly what happened. On Friday, China hit back hard, launching a 34% tariff barrage on US imports — a sharp counter-strike against Trump’s escalating trade war tactics. What did Trump say on the matter? “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!” he said on his social media platform. Just as the markets were a dumpster fire on Friday, Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell gave a speech at a business journalists' conference. In his remarks, he said that Trump’s tariffs would cause “higher inflation and slower growth.” “It is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects,” Powell said. Trump's response? “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly,” Trump wrote in a post. “Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and Jobs are UP, all within two months - A BIG WIN for America. CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!” So here we are — $6.6 trillion lighter, futures in free fall, inflation fears reignited, and a full-blown trade war back on the table. The Fed’s caught in a political crossfire, Trump’s turning up the heat, and markets are flashing every red light imaginable. On top of it all, corporate earnings are just around the corner with the big banks on Wall Street kicking off the first-quarter reporting at the end of this week. Keep track of all big reports in the Earnings Calendar . One thing’s for sure: this isn’t the time to trade on hope or headlines. It’s the time to trade with eyes wide open, risk tightly managed, and a clear understanding that your next move could shape the rest of your year. Most of all, don’t panic . Off to you now: are you sitting this one out like Buffett — or are you moving in before the smoke clears?
SP:SPX
by TradingView
46
Using Put Options to Protect Your Stock PortfolioCME: Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last week’s bloodshed of global financial market made history. Nearly all major asset classes fell into a market turmoil driven by tariffs and retaliations. Let’s focus on the US stock market: • Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.76% in the week of March 31st to April 4th, making it the 4th worst weekly performance on record • S&P 500 slipped 8.77%, the 4th worst week in history • Nasdaq Composite fell 9.18%, the 2nd worst week • Russell gave up 9.34%, the 3rd worst week All four stock index futures were in negative territory year-to-date. On Sunday evening, E-Mini S&P 500 opened 178 points lower to 4,932, losing 17.1% YTD. All parties ultimately come to an end. After two years of double-digit gains, the unstoppable US stock market finally cracked. As more tariffs and retaliations are expected to escalate, I am afraid that we are only seeing the beginning, rather than the end. For stock investors, this is a good reminder of market risk, something we always talk about but seldomly pay attention to. The “return of investment” should be focusing on the repayment of your money, a safety issue. Only after that should we talk about the gain from the investment. It is a necessity to protect your portfolio to achieve long-term growth. Trading with Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures For investors with a diversified portfolio, Put Options on the E-Mini S&P 500 futures are effective and cost-efficient tools. Investors who long the stocks will lose money, should stock prices fall. Put options would gain in value, providing a hedge to the portfolio. The following illustration shows a hypothetical example, given: • An investor has a $250,000 portfolio holding a diversified pool of U.S. stocks • CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ) have a contract size of $50 times the index value • The June contract (ESM5) was quoting at 4,935 Sunday evening Friday, making the notional value of 1 contract $246,750, approximately equal to our portfolio value • Assuming the portfolio moves closely in line with the S&P 500 • The investor wants to limit the loss of his portfolio to 12%. If the S&P 500 index is currently around 4950, a put option with a strike price of 4350 would roughly correspond to a 12% decline Hedging trade illustration: • The investor buys 1 put option on the June futures with the strike price of 4,600 • CME quote on that Put option is 223. As the contract is $50 times the index, the premium upfront for one put option contract is $11,150 (223*$50), ignoring any commissions • The put premium is calculated as 4.46% of the $250K portfolio If S&P drops to 4,200 (-15.15%) by the end of April: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $37,879, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4600-strike put is now 400 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $20,000 (= 400 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 37879+11150-20000 = $29,029 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29029 / 250000), which is 3.5% lower than the S&P loss and with the preset loss limit If S&P drops to 4,000 (-19.2%) by the end of May: • Without the put, the portfolio lost $47,980, assuming the same loss with the S&P • The 4850-strike put is now 600 points in-the-money • The investor sells the put and receives $30,000 (= 600 x 50) • The loss of portfolio will be 47980+11150-30000 = $29,130 • With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29,130 / 250000) As we can see here, when the S&P falls sharply, the investor will be able to cap his loss to 11.6%. In a “protective put” strategy, we would consider the option premium an insurance contract for owning stocks. If the index rises, the portfolio return would be lowered a little because of the premium upfront, that is, the cost of insurance. However, the protection is a lifesaver if the index falls. Before jumping into action, the investor needs to run a correlation analysis using the daily value of the portfolio against the S&P 500 closing prices. Here is how: • Some trading software has correlation feature built in already • If not, pull 1-year daily portfolio balance and 1-year S&P closing prices, export them to Excel. Run correlation test with these two data series using Excel data analysis tool. • Alternatively, we could drop the data into ChatGPT and ask AI to do the work for us. If the correlation is greater than 50%, it means that S&P 500 is a good fit to hedge the portfolio. If it is not, we could try the correlation analysis using the other stock index closing prices, such as the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000. Then replace E-Mini S&P 500 futures with the stock index futures contract best fit the portfolio. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
Vietnam's Shadow Over Nike's Swoosh?Nike's recent stock dip illuminates the precarious balance of global supply chains in an era of trade tensions. The article reveals a direct correlation between the proposed US tariffs on Asian imports, particularly from Vietnam – Nike's primary manufacturing hub – and a significant drop in the company's stock value. This immediate market reaction underscores the financial risks associated with Nike's deep reliance on its extensive factory network in Vietnam, which produces a substantial portion of its footwear, apparel, and equipment. Despite robust revenues, Nike operates with relatively thin profit margins, leaving limited capacity to absorb increased costs from tariffs. The competitive nature of the athletic wear industry further restricts Nike's ability to pass these costs onto consumers through significant price hikes without risking decreased demand. Analysts suggest that only a fraction of the tariff burden can likely be transferred, forcing Nike to explore alternative, potentially less appealing, mitigation strategies such as product downgrades or extended design cycles. Ultimately, the article highlights Nike's significant challenges in navigating the current trade landscape. While historically cost-effective, the deep entrenchment of its manufacturing in Vietnam now presents a considerable vulnerability. Shifting production elsewhere, particularly back to the US, proves complex and expensive due to the specialized nature of footwear manufacturing and the lack of domestic infrastructure. The future financial health of the athleticwear giant hinges on its ability to adapt to these evolving geopolitical and economic pressures.
NYSE:NKEShort
by UDIS_View
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 7–11, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 New U.S. Tariffs Begin April 9: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — 10% on all imports, 25%+ on key sectors — could stir volatility. 🇨🇳📦 China Retaliates April 10: A 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods raises trade war fears and inflation concerns. 🏦💰 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will report. Markets will watch closely for financial health signals. 📉📊 March CPI Report Coming April 10: Inflation data could sway the Fed’s rate path. Forecasts call for a 0.1% increase. ⚠️ Volatility Alert: Piper Sandler projects a possible 5.6% move in the S&P 500 this week — up or down. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, April 7: 🗣️ Fed Gov. Kugler Speaks (10:30 AM ET) 💳 Consumer Credit (3:00 PM ET) — Forecast: $15.5B | Prev: $18.1B 📅 Tuesday, April 8: 📈 NFIB Small Biz Optimism (6:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 100.7 🗣️ Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks (8:00 AM ET) 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.4% | Prev: 0.8% 🗣️ Fed’s Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET) 📝 FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET) 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📉 Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 219K 📊 CPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.1% | Prev: 0.2% 🗣️ Fed Gov. Bowman Testifies (10:00 AM ET) 📅 Friday, April 11: 🏭 PPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.2% | Prev: 0.0% 🗣️ Fed’s Musalem Speaks (10:00 AM ET) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
AUD and NZD: WTH? RBNZ now in focusRisk aversion intensified on Friday, sending the Australian dollar down 4.56% and the New Zealand dollar 3.53% lower. The declines followed a move by US President Donald Trump to impose a 10% tariff on imports from both Australia and New Zealand. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed there would be no retaliation, noting the US represents less than 5% of Australia’s export market. New Zealand, with a higher 12% exposure, also ruled out countermeasures. For the New Zealand dollar, markets will now be focused on this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision, where a 25-basis point rate cut is widely expected. Barring further tariff news, this could be the most important event determining whether this sell-off continues.
by BlackBull_Markets