AUDUSD (Looks Like a Bull, Smells like a bear)Whats up a traders -
We're sideways on this one, not quite sure.
Have a look at the explanation on the chart.
Comments are welcome.
Tariffs
USD/TRY potential LongThis potential Long entry point in the chart is based on multiple technical and fundamental confluences, most of which i'm not going to give out
Note that FX markets and Turkish lira movement is based on fundamental information as any breakout of technical levels happens for fundamental reasons so I highly advise you to be unbiased and watch topic related news and periodical economic releases.
My stance (long/short/TP/SL/entry point) might change anytime if some new crucial info would come out.
Note that Turkey has highest USD denominated corporate debt burden among emerging market countries, with maturities sharply rising from 2019 and peaking in 2022. Meaning any near/medium term USD strength will have negative Lira effect as USD strength will complicate Turkish foreign debt repayment and will have negative pressure on Lira (USD/TRY strength)
Stance of TCMB on any potential Lira weakness will be interesting to see as well as FED tightening
Greek philosopher Plato once said "Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance"
Don't ignore anything and do your own research thoroughly before you commit any capital.
You can make money pretty quick in FX markets but you can lose them faster than anyone
SPX - 50W Moving Average in PerilWhats up Traders - As always, the explanation is on the chart.
Just some food for thought and concern. I am NOT the only one talking about this by a long shot.
Keeping an eye on things, and like most seasoned traders, We are trading with extreme caution right now
- - Macro Headwinds - -
China - Trade-war / Tariffs
November Election / Midterms
Saudi Arabia Political Nonsense
FED Interest Rates
Flattening Yield curve
Earnings Season - Seeing reduced outlooks by companies reporting so far.
End of the Year Profit Taking Season
I dont like it.
Institutional Rotation in AMZN Chart PatternsRotation has been underway most of the summer months in the AMZN chart. Rotation is the slow, methodical selling of shares held in inventory for the Trusts of Derivative Developers and the Charters of Mutual Funds. The largest institutions are lowering their risk, expecting the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports to impact AMZN with either rising prices and costs or lower sales and revenues, or both. The rotation is NOT disturbing the price trend, as is their intent.
Martha Stokes, C.M.T.
WMT Bottom Facing All-Time High and Trade WarsWMT has been in a bottoming formation most of this year. The big gap up was HFTs taking advantage of those who trade on earnings news. Notice how quickly profit-taking follows. The all-time high is strong resistance.
Walmart is one company that is stating it will face revenue and earnings problems due to the Trade Wars and new Tariffs on the Chinese goods it imports. Since this is a discount retail store, the tariffs will eventually force the company to either find another country to import goods from or raise the cost of its imported goods, which is a far more likely scenario. That means US consumers who buy products from Walmart will start to see an increase in the cost of any products or goods imported from China. This could take effect as early as this holiday season. WMT may try to delay some cost increases until next year, but the increase in import costs will be passed onto consumers at some point.
BIDULook like Chinese names are improving since the news that talks will continue between US and China. I'd be looking for the test of the 38.2% resistance on the fib retracement before it pulls back again, longer term the chart is looking dangerous. It seems to have broke its uptrend from last earnings with a gap down back at the beginning of August. will be watching support around 210 if that breaks will see further weakness.
$SOYBNUSDwww.wsj.com
Record supply with lower demand... what do you expect?
manage your risk
gl hf
xoxo
snoop
Last test of support on OutokumpuI have been working on the theory of the current price action being a smaller fractal of the last bull run from ATL 0.88% .
A pitchfork can confirm the channel play occuring and a slight bullish divergence can give indication on a rally soon.
Three tests of RSI support and vertical support from a major pitchfork . The volume is down almost 70 %. It's not going to stay like this for long.
Buy levels have been around 5€ and I think a 30-40% gain is plausible. This major pitchfork followed by a rally is an exciting idea that could take us even further. Unfortunately the company has been surrounded by some bad news and the sentiment is bearish . The banks give Outokumpu a low security value.
A safer buy is at a confirmation above the red line. I'm overall short-term speculating on this. The OMXH index does not look very promising right now so it will be a tough climb.
SPX threatening to Dump OvernightThe S&P500 is consolidating in a diamond pattern, and there's a decent chance OANDA:SPX500USD futures will pull us down lower during the Globex session. The NY close demonstrated selling pressure in the upper yellow zone on the chart; an area where sellers have profited from selling before. The VZO-PZO below the chart shows falling back into the diamond will likely cause a fail of the bullish trendline on the oscillator, and the TMF above is signaling lower with bearish divergence. If we continue to trade lower on tariff jitters, there's good reason to think the NY open will involve anther test of the vitally important 2700 area (lower yellow zone) on SPX. I expect an initial bounce on high volume, then a a back-test of the diamond consolidation. If price is unable to close an hourly candle back inside the diamond, expect 2700 to fail. Targeting 268 or as low as 267.5 on SPY, either tomorrow (Friday 7/6) or early next week.
Industrial Sector in Trump's AmericaTariffs, tariffs, tariffs this is the word that will and has consistently beaten down the sector. So, now you ask yourself, "how far down can the sector go?" Well as the chart shows a critical juncture is coming. A bottom trend line that has been established for years now will come into play soon and if this S&P Index falls below it...well...this downturn could just be a taste of what is to come.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR?
- Index needs to remain above $600
- MOST IMPORTANT needs to stay above ascending trend line
Gold Looking to Take Grounds Near $1,291 Before G7 Meeting TodayWe are in sell below $1,296 with a stop above $1,299 and a take profit of $1,293. I will be looking to buy above $1,290 later today. Keep following for more details..
Resistances levels to watch in a new trade war day #miniSP500SP:SPX ES1! SP1!
ALL TALK? NO ACTION?
Supports levels had worked and futures ended in positive territory yesterday, after all many experts believe that these announcements of #TradeWar are a door to open negotiations or the real effects of these anouncements will take some time, but will see.. take a look of these points:
1) $spx SP:SPX Could broke out thru the falling triangle today.
2) All support becomes resistance, actual 20 EMA (2666) is the closest resistance level to observe.
3) Yesterday at the session end, futures indices closed in positive territory ES1! and still continue, careful to be too optimistic there are strongest resistance levels.
4) Volatility is 20 now but you know what happenned with bad news #Trump #Tariffs #TradeWar
5) Above the 20 EMA (2666 PINK), still remains 3 interesting resistances: 50 EMA, 100 EMA and the falling triangle which is strong (yellow).
It seems that everything is still announcement of actions, governments don't want a #TradeWar, there is a expectation for negotitions.
This is still a political situation, many of these announces are a pressure strategy to OPEN a negotiation or it can get worse or even stop, is a dynamic issue to review continuously.
Big picture=
The support levels to watch in a new trade war day #miniSP500SP:SPX SP1! ES1!
ALL TALK? NO ACTION?
Complex battle continues and still is not a clear direction, economies collapsing?... not yet, take a look of these points:
1) Actual 200 DMA of ES1! is 2590 (PINK).
2) All support becomes resistance, but actual 200 DMA (2590) had been crossed over many times.
3) Yesterday at the session end, futures indices closed in positive territory and after China & Usa announced new tariffs, futures indices have going down.
4) Below the actual 200 DMA (2590 PINK), still remains 2 interesting supports: April 1 low (2552) and February lows (2530) {PURPLE}.
5) Negative session, negative day maybe a negative week for almost all markets with all this goverment announces.
6) European indices down but does not fall with the strength of the American indices, futures remain negative and expecting to Bearish sentiment in American open.
7) High volatility and many bad news is not a good combination for a long terms trading, a day for intraday small trades, with many stop loss and limited orders.
8) At the end, everything is still ANNOUNCEMENT of actions, likewise all this is reversed if one of the 2 governments announces that they have opened negotiations ... so I would not be so confident to open short positions either.
[9) The real effects of these actions announced we will see in a month at least, especially because it can get worse or even stop, is a dynamic issue, review continuously.
10) This is still a political situation, many of these announces are a pressure strategy to OPEN a negotiation, at the end, goverments want the best for his own benefits.
War zone analisys: All is still not lost! 200 DMA ES1!SP:SPX ES1! SP1!
BE CAREFUL, IT'S NOT ALL BEARISH , STILL REMAINS BULLISH SENTIMENT, MIXED OPEN
Complex battle is coming and still is not a clear direction, take a look of these points:
1) Actual 200 DMA of ES1! is 2589 (PINK)
2) All support becomes resistance, in the last 12 hours ES1! had touched at least 2 times the 2589 support
3) Yesterday obviously all indexes with RED indicators, but at the close we had a interesting return and away of minimum of the session
4) Below the actual 200 DMA (2589 PINK) ES1! , still remains 2 interesting supports: yesterday low (2552) and february lows (2530) {PURPLE}
5) It was expected that yesterday at the time of breaking the 200 DMA ES1! , the indexes won't had a dramatic greater drop reaching levels of 2000 points in the SPX SP:SPX , this did not happen, on the contrary we closed with a return.
6) European indices down but does not fall with the strength of the American indices, futures remain positive for today's opening, so we expect a slightly flat day, given the uncertainty.
7)Today is expected a tough battle that will leave many losers, it is best to stay out of the American markets and opt for markets like the European that has found good support and not being a contender is not directly affected by the trade war between China and USA.
www.cnbc.com
To: Mr. Trump / Why do not you shut up? TVC:NDX DJ:DJI SP:SPX
ES1! YM1! NQ1!
This 1 hour chart show us that had already exceeded the 50 and 100 EMA, about to reach the dreaded 200SMA, BUT he has decided to tweet again, which puts a brake on all long positions and we enter the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a great dance of ups and downs turning a battle of #Bearish vs. #Bullish in the intraday, that the only thing that will bring is blood in the investors and North American companies. Great job #MAGA
It seems that the No. 1 enemy of the North American economy is his own president, who does not understand much about it, he wants to affect companies like Amazon with his tweets or affect anyone who does not consider his friend.
That is not the way to maintain stability in the stock markets, much less in the economy, it seems that it likes to generate panic and after living moments of stress in the S&P SP:SPX pressing the 200 DMA, but it seems that he wants to play with fire intentionally.
Imposing tariffs and believing that economic wars can be won "easy" with enemies like China, destruction, uncertainty, fear and volatility is the only thing that is bringing every time, Mr. Trump expresses his opinion, what in the next months the historical supports will stop working and then we will have the great feared CRASH.
www.bloomberg.com
SHORT NZD/CAD NAFTA MS TRADECAD should outperform NZD over the coming weeks. Constructive NAFTA news suggests that the US may be getting closer to an acceptable agreement with its trading partners, which should lead to a continued re-pricing of the trade risk premium. Risks to a more dovish RBNZ continue, with the new Policy Targets Agreement likely to add a second employment mandate and potentially offer specific language on the currency. Data in NZ also remain uncompelling, including the business PMI and GDP. Positioning also favors the trade, with the market remaining long NZD while CAD sentiment is net bearish. A risk to the trade is a dovish shift from the BoC, leading to CAD weakness. - Morgan Stanley
AUSSIE STEEL TARIFFS & TRADE PROTECTIONISM AIMED AT CHINAWe recommend selling AUDCAD targeting 0.9914 (50-day moving average), with stop loss 1.0150 (above recent highs) for a total reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1.
As discussed in Asia Pacific: US tariffs: A minor setback for now, 2 March 2018, the steel tariffs reinforce our view of AUD underperformance on the basis of late-cycle domestic dynamics, and an expected moderation in Australia’s terms of trade . Any new announcement of wider tariffs on US imports from China will not bode well for the AUD, given the currency’s high sensitivity to China’s growth outlook.
On the other hand, the loonie has already incorporated trade policy risk premium and a partial unwind, given Canada’s exemption to the steel and aluminum tariffs, could support CAD this week.
This trade recommendation is valid from the Wellington open Monday to the New York close Friday.
-Barclays FX Research
Maybe time? Maybe? Despite bad tariff news, volume remains low... consolidation? Or am I just too hopeful? Thoughts?
Trade Wars are Bearish for USDJPYA clear break below $108 support level which now becomes resistance targets the $100 support level. The selloff in US Treasuries and trade wars are bearish for the USD, combined with the risk-off environment that the tariffs rhetoric sparks off points to a bearish tone for USDJPY.
X breaking cloud and 100% level to test 105.5Title says a lot but I'll say a little more; double williams trader long entries on the 29D (1 moon cycle) and 7W (one of gann's cycles I watch near half a quarter in length)
Volume looks good as well
gl hf
xoxo
sn00p
CADUSD: Is this a bottom for the Canadian dollar?This level might be the bottom in this pair. Trump's tariff announcement might have created a negative enough sentiment to form a bottom here.
From Zerohedge: "Canadians have had a tough time of it recently: they are getting inundated with illegal immigrants (thanks to Trudeau's welcome) and not benefitting from the wholesale emigration north that so many liberals promised if Trump was elected; housing has become unaffordable due to Chinese hot money flows encouraged by the government; the Canadian energy industry is hosed because of US shale production-driven low prices; and now the US imposes trade tariffs on another of their biggest exports."
"The determination that Canada improperly subsidizes its exports is preliminary, and the Commerce Department will need to make a final decision. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission will need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada."
www.zerohedge.com
To me, as a contrarian, it sounds like a good opportunity, although the odds of the trade working are low, the payoff would be significant.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
