Netflix Earnings Growth Expected As It Prepares For Q125 ResultsNetflix (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NFLX ) is set to report its earnings for the quarter ending March 2025 on April 17. Analysts expect year-over-year growth in both revenue and earnings. However, consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been revised down slightly by 0.07% over the past 30 days. This suggests a cautious outlook among analysts.
At the close on April 11, Netflix stock traded at $918.29, down by 0.31%. In after-hours trading, the price edged slightly higher to $919.80. The stock traded with a volume of 4.07 million shares. RSI stands at 47.76, reflecting neutral momentum.
The final result could trigger a sharp price move. A positive earnings surprise might push the stock higher. On the other hand, a miss could lead to a decline. The outcome will also depend on management’s commentary during the earnings call.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, Netflix recently bounced off a key demand zone near the $820–$830 range. This zone had previously served as a strong support area. After touching this level, the price formed a reversal candle, signaling potential buying interest.
The stock is now hovering around $918.29, near the 50-day and 100-day moving averages at $961.61 and $931.24, respectively. If the price clears these levels, it may aim for the recent high of $1,064.50. A short-term retracement could occur before a possible continuation higher.
Volume analysis shows a spike during the bounce from support, indicating accumulation. The price pattern suggests a bullish structure is forming. Overall, eyes remain on the April 17 earnings report for the next major move, which might see Netflix surge to a new all-time high.
Tariffs
BlackRock Beats EPS Estimates Despite Revenue Miss in Q1 2025 BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:BLK ) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $11.30 for Q1 2025. This beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.25, marking a 10.24% surprise. In the same quarter last year, EPS was $9.81.
Revenue came in at $5.28 billion, missing the estimate of $5.33 billion by 1%. However, it rose from $4.73 billion a year earlier. The company has surpassed EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters and has topped consensus estimates twice in that span. In the previous quarter, BlackRock posted EPS of $11.93, beating the $11.27 estimate. That represented a surprise of 5.86%.
BlackRock operates in the Financial - Investment Management industry. The market now awaits management’s outlook for future earnings. This will shape short-term price direction. So far in 2025, BlackRock shares have dropped 16.2%. In comparison, the S&P 500 has declined 10.4%.
Technical Analysis
BlackRock rebounded from a strong support zone near $780. This level aligns with the long-term horizontal support level that has held for over 3 years now. The RSI sits at 41, indicating it is nearly oversold. However, a bullish reversal momentum is forming around the support zone.
If the price continues to rise, resistance and target lie at the $1,084.22 recent high. A break above $950 may trigger a run toward the $1,000–$1,084 range. If the price is rejected, it could revisit the $780 support or possibly the ascending trendline sitting below the horizontal support.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Reports Strong Q125 ResultsMorgan Stanley (NYSE: NYSE:MS ) Beats Q1 estimates with record Equity Trading Revenue. The bank posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.60, beating analyst expectations of $2.18. Revenue reached a record $17.74 billion, topping forecasts of $16.44 billion.
The bank's equity trading revenue soared 45% year-over-year. It reached a new high of $4.13 billion as growth came across business lines and regions. Asia showed particularly strong performance. Prime brokerage and derivatives led gains, fueled by high client activity in volatile markets.
Morgan Stanley shares dropped 1% after the earnings release. However, the stock remains up over 20% in the past year. Volatility in global markets helped trading desks outperform.
Technical Analysis
Morgan Stanley bounced sharply from the $95 support zone. Buyers stepped in near the previous breakout level. Volume increased and confirmed renewed interest. This was seen as Trump paused tariffs for the next 90 days as well. Current price action suggests a recovery trend. The RSI stands at 39, hinting at oversold conditions. A potential path points to $142.03, which acts as the immediate resistance level.
If the price breaks $113 cleanly, momentum could carry it to $130 and beyond. If it fails, it is most likely to retest $95 support level. A strong break above recent highs would confirm bullish continuation. For now, Watch out the $113 and $142 levels closely.
Whirlpool of DividendsAm I crazy to be looking at a manufacturing play right now considering the tariff trade wars going on? The stock right now has a forward dividend yield of 8.65% at the current price with a technical setup. There are fundamentals around tariffs to consider but that could only be the "reason" the price has come to a great buy.
I set an alert almost a year ago in April 2024 based on a follower of mine liking the stock NYSE:WHR as a dividend play. I suggested that we set the buy alert for the Volume Profile level going back 20 years ago which also incorporated the 2020 COVID low:
That alert his this week and I did some fundamental research on the company. Back in 2018 Whirlpool took a big hit with the first round of China focused tariffs. However, the company responded by focusing on more U.S.-based manufacturing. Its competitors, LG and Samsung have more tariff exposure. Material costs could still present a challenge.
From a technical standpoint I see a major low with volume support that could hold up price.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: $NVDA) Shares Rally Amid AI Sector OptimismShares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ) have gained over 3% on Friday 11th April. The positive results come after U.S. markets rallied on tariff news. President Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs for most countries dropped to 10%, sparking investor optimism.
Major U.S. indices rose sharply following the announcement after being under pressure from rising trade tensions. The pause was seen as a welcome shift toward calmer negotiations.
However, Trump excluded China from this relief. Instead, he stated that tariffs on Chinese goods would increase to 125%. This came after China announced new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. The tough stance toward China contrasted with the softened approach to other countries.
Despite the relief, market uncertainty remains. Investors are unsure whether the rally will last. Ongoing trade disputes, especially with China, could disrupt momentum.
Nvidia's price rose to $110.78, gaining $14.99 on Friday's session. The stock reached an intraday high of $111.53 and a low of $107.48. The current resistance sits at $153.13 high.
Technical Analysis
Nvidia bounced sharply off the $92 support zone, highlighted by strong buying pressure. The RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum. A clear resistance lies near $153.13 high. If Nvidia breaks this level, a move toward $180 is likely. If it fails, price may revisit the $92 zone. Two scenarios are possible. The stock could either continue upward to $180 or face rejection and fall back. Watch the $153 level closely for confirmation.
DXY Drops to 3-Year Lows, EURUSD Soars to 1.14With the 3-Day RSI hovering near 2020 highs, the monthly chart shows potential for further upside as EURUSD breaks out of a long-term downtrend channel that began from the 2008 highs.
The pair has reached a high of 1.1470, aligning with the 0.272 Fibonacci retracement of the 2008–2022 downtrend.
A sustained hold above 1.15 opens the door for further gains toward resistance levels at 1.1730, 1.20, and 1.2350.
On the downside, if overbought conditions on lower time frames lead to a pullback below 1.1270, potential support levels to monitor include 1.1140, 1.1070,1.09, and 1.0850,
- Razan Hilal, CMT
British pound keeps rolling as UK GDP shinesThe British pound is up sharply on Friday, extending its rally for a fourth straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3088, up 0.94% on the day. The pound has surged 2.9% since Monday.
UK GDP higher than expected February with a gain of 0.5% m/m. This followed a revised 0% reading in January and beat the market estimate of 0.1%. This was the fastest pace of growth since March 2024. Services, manufacturing and construction all recorded gains. For the three months to January, GDP expanded 0.6%, above the revised 0.3% gain in January and higher than the market estimate of 0.4%.
The strong GDP data is welcome news amid all the uncertainty created by US President Trump's tariff policy. The UK's largest trading partner is the US and the 10% tariffs on UK products will hurt the UK export sector (Trump has suspended an additional 10% tariff for 90 days).
Bank of England expected to lower rates in May
The turmoil in the financial markets and escalating trade tensions has the Bank of England worried. The markets have priced in a rate cut in May, betting that the BoE will ease policy in order to support the weak economy, even with inflation above the 2% target. The BoE kept rates unchanged in March and meets next on May 8.
The US-China trade war rose up a notch on Friday, as China announced it would raise tariffs on US goods to 125% from 84%. This move was in response to the US lifting tariffs on China by 125% this week, for a total tariff rate at 145%. The trade war will dampen China's economy and Goldman Sachs has lowered its 2025 GDP forecast for China to 4.0% from 4.5%.
Gold ETF(GLD) - Gold is the Safe Haven?Is Gold the safe haven from all the market turmoil? Looking at the chart, it would appear that Gold is unfazed by current market conditions. Price is still making All-Time Highs as price continues to swing above the 25(green), 100,(yellow) and 200(blue) day EMAs. Further fears in the Bond market may increase interest in Gold as a stable asset. What are you thoughts? What are some other assets that are defying 'gravity'?
India, USA, China - Trade Deficit Performance after Covid PhaseIndia’s Trade Deficit Nearing a Turning Point – Strong Growth Amid Global Shifts
Trade Deficit Performance Over the Last 5 Years:
India: -10%
USA: -215%
China: +359%
Over the past five years, global trade dynamics have shifted significantly, with India showing promising signs of a turnaround in its trade performance.
India: A Rounding Bottom Pattern?
India’s trade deficit has improved by -10% over the last five years, hinting at a potential rounding bottom pattern that could transition into a trade surplus in the coming years.
This positive shift comes despite global economic headwinds, positioning India as a resilient and emerging export player.
USA: Longer Road to Recovery
In contrast, the United States has seen its trade deficit worsen by -215%, suggesting a deeper structural challenge in its trade balance.
While the U.S. economy remains strong in other metrics, its export-import imbalance will likely take more time and policy adjustments to stabilize.
China: The Export Powerhouse slowdown after Tariffs sanctions ?
China continues to dominate with a staggering +359% improvement in its trade surplus over the past five years, solidifying its position as the world’s top exporter.
However, rising global tariffs and geopolitical tensions could gradually redirect supply chains.
🌏 Macro Implications:
Tariff Realignment: As global companies look to diversify away from China amid escalating tariffs and political tensions, India is emerging as a key beneficiary.
This realignment could significantly bolster India’s export sector.
India’s Growth Story: With structural reforms, expanding manufacturing capabilities, and supportive government policies like PLI (Production-Linked Incentives), India is well-positioned to capture a larger share of global trade flows.
Global Slowdown, Local Resilience: Despite a global economic slowdown, India’s improving trade dynamics signal strong internal momentum and a maturing economy.
📈 Conclusion:
India is on the cusp of a major trade shift.
While China remains the global leader in exports and the USA faces growing imbalances, India’s improving trade performance, geopolitical advantage, and manufacturing push make it a compelling long-term trade and investment story.
Amid Tariffs war and global economy slowdown, India's growth story continues...
EURUSD Tests 17-Year Long-Term Trend!!!After Trump announced an additional 20% in tariffs, EURUSD made a relatively surprising move and surged sharply. This marks the second leg of the upward trend that began in early March. However, the sharp rise has now brought EURUSD to the doorstep of a very long-term resistance level.
Since testing 1.60 in 2008, EURUSD has been moving lower within a wide descending trend channel that has held for 17 years. Since 2015, the pattern has evolved into a wedge formation within this broader channel. The most recent test of this resistance came last year, but at the time, a weak Eurozone economy, crowded Euro long positions, and a hawkish Fed prevented a breakout.
This time, the landscape is different. The Eurozone is showing early signs of recovery, the ECB’s rate cuts appear to be nearing their end, and European countries have started to band together following a decline in confidence in their biggest ally and decide to increase technology, defence spending.
Despite these developments, the medium-term effects of the new tariffs and the strength of the long-term resistance level are likely to prevent a clear breakout for now. Still, the long-term outlook is beginning to shift in favor of the euro, and a breakout later this year carries a significant probability.
GBP/USD at a Crossroads: Imminent Breakout or Bull Trap?The weekly chart of GBP/USD shows a strong recovery following the late-April correction, which brought the price down to a key demand zone between 1.2550 and 1.2600. The bounce was sharp and decisive, but the pair is now facing resistance between 1.3000 and 1.3150 — a previously sold area marked by a visible supply block in red.
The current weekly candle reflects a bullish reaction, but the overall structure suggests a potential exhaustion zone for upward momentum. Price action reveals a series of lower highs in the short term, and while the RSI is bouncing, it remains far from overbought, hinting that this move may be just a technical rebound.
From a trading perspective, a confirmed weakness around the 1.3000–1.3150 zone could offer short opportunities with an initial target near 1.2700 and, if extended, down to 1.2550 — a key dynamic support area. On the flip side, a clean breakout above 1.3150 with strong volume and a weekly close would open the door for a new bullish leg toward 1.3300–1.3400.
Conclusion: GBP/USD is currently at a critical juncture. The next directional move will depend on how price reacts to this resistance zone: a confirmed rejection could trigger renewed selling pressure, while a confirmed breakout may reignite the bullish trend.
Revolving Credit Recession?YES! We are!
Revolving credit does not roll over like this unless people are scared! The question is are we already in a recession? We won't know until after the fact. But my guess would be YES!
My question is will we end up in a depression or not?
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What on Earth Is a Circuit Breaker?!Every couple of days since April 2nd, everybody's been talking about a stock market halt all day. You're left there trying to Google it so you're not the only person in the group chat who doesn't know what's going on. But actually, nobody else in your group chat knows what's going on either. They're low-key Googling it under the desk. You don't have to know everything in the market to be a "seasoned" trader. What does get disappointing is when people guess instead of providing facts or a direct link to an article about market halts.
So, this is your quick-but-detailed-read article/ guide to market halts and circuit breakers. Send it to your friends in that group chat. Why today's dump happened in the first place? More on that later. It's a long story. 🥹
What is a circuit breaker?
It's simple: a circuit breaker is a 15 minute OR whole-day market-wide HALT when the market reaches 1 of 3 decline levels. It all depends on the level, how fast the decline is, and potentially other factors that we are not aware of. Keep in mind this is not something we have to deal with often.
When does it happen? And what stock does it track?
Good question. The halt is triggered following declines in the S&P 500 only . That is: AMEX:SPY SP:SPX $CME_MINI:ES1!.
If these level 1 & 2 are reached before 3:25 PM EDT , there is a 15 minute market-wide trading halt. Meaning you cannot enter or exit positions. If level 3 is reached at any time in the day, the entire day's trading will come to an end.
Level 1: -7.00% | 15 minute halt
Level 2: -13.00% | 15 minute halt
Level 3: -20.00% | Entire day halt
So when the S&P 500 index reaches -6.98%, be sure a halt is coming very soon at -7.00%. Sure, like today, "they" might pump it and use that as support and prevent a halt (we got very close to -6.35% on CME_MINI:ES1! if I'm not mistaken). But it's good to be vigilant and make sure you're not in any daytrades.
Does CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:QQQ CBOT_MINI:YM1! trigger the halt also?
No. The halt is only triggered by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite famously moves much more than S&P 500, so a 7% drop in S&P is way more dramatic than a 7% drop in Nasdaq and it's highly likely at -7% in S&P that Nasdaq would be at -8% or -9%. Although, both are undoubtedly decimating for any long positions.
Why does this rule exist?
This was introduced after Black Monday of 1987 where the market was free falling ( DJ:DJI dropped 22.6%) with no safety stops in place to prevent a market-wide disaster. This prevents further panic selling and massive stop loss raids, and also gives institutional traders time to zoom out and see the bigger picture.
How close did we get recently?
Today we got within 0.7% of getting a 15 minute halt.
See for yourself:
And the intraday 15 minute chart:
FUN FACT: What if I shorted the top on CME_MINI:ES1! ?
Assuming your time machine goes back 24 hours (some time machines only go back 10 years minimum), you'd have booked 1500 ticks at $12.50 per tick. So around $19k per contract. You know that's not too bad. It's almost a Toyota Camry per contract. Do better! 😆
How do I trade this?
Do you really have to? Please do not FOMO & catch a falling knife. Trade light. The market is open for the rest of the year. Trade with a stop loss, and remember, if you FOMO'd and bought at -3% just because it's down 3%, you'd have gotten decimated. Use the charts not the % on your screen. 🔥
Hit the follow button for free educational content because knowledge is free. KD out.
WTI gets a boost, but is this really enough?We saw yesterday the positive reaction due to the pausing of tariffs. However, because of the economic uncertainties and OPEC+ production increases, the price of TVC:USOIL may see more downside.
Let's dig in.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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US-China Rift: India's Golden Hour?Heightened trade tensions between the United States and China, characterized by substantial US tariffs on Chinese goods, inadvertently create a favorable environment for India. The significant difference in tariff rates—considerably lower for Indian imports than Chinese ones—positions India as an attractive alternative manufacturing base for corporations seeking to mitigate costs and geopolitical risks when supplying the US market. This tariff advantage presents a unique strategic opening for the Indian economy.
Evidence of this shift is already apparent, with major players like Apple reportedly exploring increased iPhone imports from India and even accelerating shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. This trend extends beyond Apple, as other global electronics manufacturers, including Samsung and potentially even some Chinese firms, evaluate shifting production or export routes through India. Such moves stand to significantly bolster India's "Make in India" initiative and enhance its role within global electronics value chains.
The potential influx of manufacturing activity, investment, and exports translates into substantial tailwinds for India's benchmark Nifty 50 index. Increased economic growth, higher corporate earnings for constituent companies (especially in manufacturing and logistics), greater foreign investment, and positive market sentiment are all likely outcomes. However, realizing this potential requires India to address persistent challenges related to infrastructure, policy stability, and ease of doing business, while also navigating competition from other low-tariff nations and seeking favorable terms in ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
SPY Analysis & Tariff TurmoilLast Friday, the market pressure was intense, and my bullish call option, targeting $537.64 on SPY, seemed overly ambitious as tariffs and political uncertainties peaked. I stated, " AMEX:SPY Trump went all in thinking he had the cards. We were getting sent back to the McKinley era," wondering when or if Trump would fold under international pressure and market realities.
Fast-forward to Wednesday, April 8—Trump didn't just blink; he folded utterly, reversing the harsh tariff policies he initially defended aggressively. Prompted by China's aggressively dumping of U.S. Treasuries and stark recession warnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan, Trump pivoted significantly:
• Base tariffs: 10%
• Tariffs on China: Increased to 125%
• Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China: Increased to 84% starting April 10
While temporarily bullish, these sudden, dramatic policy swings underline ongoing instability and volatility. However, with big bank earnings on deck this Friday, short-term momentum looks positive.
Technical Levels & Trade Ideas
Hourly Chart
The hourly chart reveals a critical zone—dubbed "Liberation Day Trapped Longs"—between $544.37 (H. Vol Sell Target 1b) and $560.54 (L. Vol ST 2b). Bulls trapped here from recent highs may now look to exit on a relief rally.
• Bullish Scenario:
• Entry: SPY reclaiming and holding above $544.37.
• Target 1: $560.54 (top of trapped longs)
• Target 2: $566.54 (next resistance area)
• Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $535 to limit downside.
• Bearish Scenario (if tariffs intensify again or earnings disappoint):
• Entry: Breakdown confirmation below $535.
• Target 1: $522.20 (Weeks Low Long)
• Target 2: $510.00, potential further support
• Stop Loss: Above $544.50 to manage risk effectively.
Daily Chart Perspective
The broader daily chart shows SPY stabilizing around key lower supports after significant volatility. Recent price action suggests cautious optimism for an upward bounce, but considerable headwinds remain if tariff escalations resume.
Final Thoughts
The rapid tariff reversals and heightened volatility are unsettling. The short-term bullish move offers potential quick upside trades into earnings, but caution remains paramount. You can continue managing risks prudently and watch closely for political or economic headlines that could quickly shift market sentiment again.
$BTC consequences of the Trump 90 days tariff pauseCan It Last? Is This a Trend Reversal?
Today, #Bitcoin surged over +8%, but surprisingly, #Tesla outperformed with a massive +20%—almost as much as $FARTCOIN! 🤯
History is being written, and we’ll remember this day… but is this truly the end of the consolidation phase?
What to Watch:
📈 Price Action: Bitcoin must break above the descending trendline (in green) and close a daily candle above it to flip resistance into support. The price to watch is $84.5k. Closing under 80k would invalidate this pump.
📊 RSI: Currently in mid-range—could swing either way.
🔁 MACD: Was turning bearish. We need a clear bullish crossover to confirm a trend continuation.
Conclusion:
With all the recent global tensions, many investors are feeling a sense of relief, especially as the trade war appears paused until September. This gives markets some breathing room to recover.
However, it’s not all clear skies yet:
Bitcoin is still stuck inside the descending bearish channel.
The recession risk hasn't gone away.
Trump may have been pressured to offer good news to avoid a full-blown market crash.
🕵️♂️ Let’s see how the weekly candle closes after this sharp move to the upside.
Yen surges to six-month high, BoJ cautiousThe Japanese yen continues to make inroads against the US dollar. In the North American session, USD/JPY is up 1.1% on Wednesday, trading at 144.60. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 143.98, its strongest level since Sept. 2024.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Wednesday that the central bank will have to determine the impact of US trade policy on growth and inflation in Japan. Ueda said that US tariffs had created new uncertainty and signaled that the BoJ might hold off on further interest rates until the situation became more clear.
Ueda repeated that the BoJ would raise rates if the economy continued to improve, and currently, underlying inflation was rising and moving closer to 2% target. The uptake is that the BoJ is being very cautious with all the turmoil in the markets and is dampening expectations of a rate hike at the May 1 meeting.
FOMC minutes - still relevant?
The Federal Reserve will post its minutes of the March rate meeting. Investors scrutinize the minutes for policy clarity but global economic developments are unfolding so quickly that it's questionable if the minutes will be relevant with the massive market sell-off and the trade war between the US and China.
Earlier today, the US lifted tariffs on China to an astounding 104% and China has retaliated with an 84% counter-tariff. The turmoil in the financial markets has nervous investors looking for safer shores, and are parking their funds in safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. In April, the yen has jumped 3.3% against the US dollar, while the Swiss franc has soared 5% against the greenback.
USD/JPY has pushed below support at 145.46 and is putting pressure on support at 144.64
There is resistance at 146.79 and 147.61
Walmart Withdraws Earnings Guidance Amid Tariff UncertaintyWalmart (NYSE: NYSE:WMT ) has withdrawn its operating profit forecast for the current quarter. The company cited tariff-related uncertainties as the reason. Rising import duties from countries like China and Vietnam have impacted cost structures. Walmart aims to keep pricing flexible to protect margins.
Despite the near-term challenges, Walmart reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The retailer expects net sales to grow between 3% and 4%. It also sees adjusted operating profit growth between 3.5% and 5.5% for the year.
Walmart highlighted additional concerns, including insurance-related costs and shifts in consumer behavior. Shoppers are spending more on low-margin essentials due to inflation. This change in product mix has also pressured the company’s margins.
CEO Doug McMillon said Walmart will continue focusing on pricing discipline, inventory efficiency, and expense control. He admitted that the current environment remains unpredictable. However, the company will stick to its long-term strategy.
Technical Analysis
Walmart’s stock is currently trading at $90.46, up 10.53%, with a high of $90.80. The price has bounced from a strong support zone near $82, forming a bullish momentum candle. NYSE:WMT is now testing a resistance area at $89, previously a demand zone.
A successful break and retest could lead to a rally toward the $105.30 previous high. However, rejection at this level could see the price fall back to the $82 support. But with the recent bullish momentum, a breakout at $89 is possible.
HAPPENING NOW?! HERTZ CUP AND HANDLE BREAKOUT 1D CHART?HERTZ (HTZ) Price rose significantly to $4.26 on the 1 Day chart. Is this a sign of an impending bullish breakout? My personal target opinion for bullish movement is $5.50. Will this be a major bullish turning point for Hertz? Or will it be a easy grab for traders running short positions?