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Tarrifs

Tariffs and Gold: A Trade War’s Golden Ripple EffectTariffs, especially those involving major economies like the U.S. and China, can impact gold prices by influencing inflation, economic growth, and market uncertainty. If tariffs lead to trade wars, economic slowdowns, or higher consumer prices, investors may seek gold as a hedge against inflation and economic instability, driving prices up. Conversely, if tariffs strengthen a country’s economy by protecting domestic industries and boosting confidence in the local currency, gold prices may decline as investors favor riskier assets. The overall effect depends on how tariffs influence global economic conditions and investor sentiment.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by KeN-WeNzEl
Traded UVIX This Morning, Just After Open. Position Closed NowIs CBOE:UVIX right for you? Would you also like to earn when the market is down? If so check it out, I traded $UIVX right after the open and have already closed the position. I usually don't day trade, but on a down day like today I couldn't resist trying the downside with Ultra Short Futures Options. These instruments aren't for everyone, & most people who own them lose money over time, so please be careful and only risk as much as you can afford to lose.
CBOE:UVIX
by CryptoQue
The Most Effective way to fight Tariffs, is to Sell BondsIn an era when protectionist tariffs have become a go-to tool for DUNCE Political leaders such as President Voldemort, it is time for investors, institutions and nation states to take a stand—and not through traditional protest, but by wielding the formidable power of financial markets. Tariffs, by raising costs and distorting trade, can sap economic growth. Yet, as history and recent trade wars have shown, the real battleground is not just at the border but in the bond markets. The BIG FRAUD of created by American's "Buy, Borrow, Die" mental illness is already at a point where it could burst any moment and the best needle to poke this bubble is the 2 Year Bonds. If these bonds default, a recession will likely happen and it is unlikely a republican majority will be elected in the house and senate during the mid-term cycle. Therefore, the most aggressive and effective countermeasure is to sell off short-dated (2‑year) bonds in favor of longer‑dated (5‑ and 10‑year) bonds, and to liquidate any and all U.S. bonds held by companies in politically “red” states. This would mean the debt they hold is being sold for pennies on the dollar, like Twitters loan already is... Tariffs and Trade Wars: Lessons from Recent History The recent imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has sparked a new wave of economic disruption. These tariffs—intended to protect domestic industries—have instead triggered retaliatory measures and rattled global markets. As reported by Reuters, the trade war initiated by these tariffs has not only led to rising costs for consumers but also to significant volatility in financial markets. Such aggressive trade policies reveal an underlying fiscal vulnerability that can be exploited through strategic bond trading. REUTERS.COM Historically, trade wars have often served as the catalyst for broader financial instability. When tariffs escalate, investors flock to safe-haven assets, yet the resulting market dynamics also open up opportunities for those who know where to look. Now is the moment to pivot—and the bond market is the perfect arena for this counteroffensive. Historical Defaults: A Wake-Up Call Contrary to the oft-repeated claim that “the U.S. has always paid its bills on time,” history tells a different story. There have been several notable instances—ranging from the demand note default during the Civil War to the overt default on gold bonds in 1933 and technical defaults such as the 1979 payment delays—that remind us of the inherent risks in our national fiscal practices. These episodes highlight that U.S. bonds, despite their reputation for safety, are not immune to default under fiscal duress. THEHILL.COM This historical perspective should not only unsettle complacent investors but also embolden them to leverage the bond market as a tool of economic resistance. By strategically repositioning bond portfolios, investors can exacerbate fiscal pressures on policymakers who rely on the illusion of unfailing debt service. The Yield Curve: An Opportunity for Tactical Rebalancing The current structure of the U.S. Treasury yield curve presents an unprecedented opportunity. Short‑term bonds—especially the ubiquitous 2‑year Treasuries—are trading at levels that no longer justify their risk, given the market’s expectation of a steepening curve as longer‑term yields are poised to rise. By aggressively selling off 2‑year bonds and using the proceeds to acquire 5‑ and 10‑year bonds, investors can capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve. This strategy not only enhances returns but also sends a powerful signal: the market is rejecting the financial underpinnings that allow tariffs to be financed cheaply. This repositioning weakens the liquidity available for financing government policies that sustain tariffs, thereby indirectly undermining the protectionist agenda. As bond market dynamics come into sharper focus amid rising inflation fears and fiscal deficits, this tactical shift represents a proactive measure to tilt the scales back in favor of free trade. REUTERS.COM Targeting “Red State” Bonds: A Political and Financial Imperative It is no secret that companies based in states with predominantly conservative (or “red”) leadership have often been the political bedfellows of tariff advocates. These companies not only benefit from protectionist rhetoric but also tend to issue bonds under fiscal conditions that make them particularly vulnerable when market sentiment shifts. Moreover, they also tend to be overvalued anyway so the likelihood of panic selling is more likely. The time has come to liquidate any and all U.S. bonds issued by red state companies. By divesting from these securities, investors can both shield themselves from potential losses and apply market discipline on a sector that has, for too long, been insulated from the harsh realities of global trade dynamics. This aggressive divestiture sends a dual message: a rejection of protectionist policies and a call for a more balanced, market-oriented approach to national fiscal management. It is a bold stance that forces a rethinking of the relationship between politics and finance—a reminder that no company should be immune to the corrective forces of the market. Conclusion Tariffs are not just trade policy—they are fiscal weapons that rely on the ability to finance cheap debt. History has shown that even the most stalwart bond markets are susceptible to default under pressure, and recent trade wars have only amplified these vulnerabilities. The solution is clear and decisive: sell off 2‑year bonds and reinvest in 5‑ and 10‑year bonds, while liquidating U.S. bonds held by red state companies. This aggressive financial maneuver not only promises better returns in a steepening yield curve environment but also serves as an effective counterattack against protectionist tariffs. By rebalancing portfolios in this manner, investors take an active role in challenging policies that restrict free trade and hinder economic growth. In the world of modern finance, sometimes the best way to fight back is to let your portfolio do the talking. Disclaimer: This article reflects a strongly opinionated perspective and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with a professional advisor before making any investment decisions.
TVC:US02Y
by livingdracula
EURUSD 30 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB Rate / LagardeThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate. Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration. Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments. Heavy Economic Reports today: Starting with EUR Unemployment, GDP, ECB Interest Rate / Lagarde Press Conference to US GDP and Core PCE. Overall, the market sentiment reflects a blend of caution and anticipation as investors monitor the interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the administration's fiscal initiatives. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the large 4H Demand zone but failing till now to do something significant (At least a Bullish CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Swing is continuing bearish with a new bearish BOS. 🔹After a BOS we expected a pullback which already reached the Swing Premium and mitigated the 15m / 4H supply zones. 🔹No clear INT structure within the Swing but the Fractal is currently bearish indicating the bearish swing pullback could be over and we are currently forming the Swing continuation phase to target the weak Swing Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue bearish (4H INT low to be broken) but to be cautious that we still within the 4H demand that is not fully mitigated.
by Amr-Sadek
$BABA Falling wedge breakout on dailyNYSE:BABA falling wedge breakout confirmed with MACD signalling bullish trend. There's volume gap just above 90 to 94 where price can move very fast. All sentiment indicator has been very bearish lately which makes me come to conclusion that this was the bottom. Market was positioning for TRUMP to possibly put on 60% tarrifs on china which doesn't seem to be happening now as Trump has suggested negotiations with President XI my PT is $99 for BABA in next 3 months
NYSE:BABALong
by ghostinvoid
EURUSD Sellers have an advantage towards Trump's Inauguration After carefully following up on US and EURO Zone data. We can positively say that the data has been favorable to the dollar. As at now the Fed has reduced the number of expected cuts this yr while ECB maintains a dovish tone promising a series of cuts even if they are not to be consistent. Also we have seen the NFP Data high and unemployment declining. If Trump maintains his stand on tariffs we should expect the EURO to be hurt.
Short
by WisdomArnold
Buy the Dip: TEM is a Resilient AI Healthcare Pick for 2025Tempus AI NASDAQ:TEM is presenting a compelling investment opportunity as we move into 2025. This health tech company, focused on leveraging AI for precision medicine, has weathered a recent downturn and is showing strong signs of recovery. After a 4 week correction that presented a chance to buy at a discount, TEM has finally shown the ability to rally. This recovery makes it a particularly interesting prospect for several reasons: 1. AI's Continued Rise: The field of artificial intelligence is advancing at breakneck speed, and Tempus is at the forefront of applying these advancements to healthcare. Their work in areas like genomic sequencing and data analysis for personalized treatment plans positions them exceptionally well to capitalize on this megatrend. 2. Weathering the Political Storm: Tempus's core business is less vulnerable to possible tariffs that may be introduced by incoming President Trump. Healthcare, particularly innovative approaches to disease treatment, remains a critical sector regardless of the political landscape. Furthermore, Tempus' customers being mostly internal U.S. customers provides further resilience in the face of possible tariffs. 3. Technical Rebound: As the attached chart illustrates, TEM is in the midst of a technical bounce back. The recent price action suggests that the sell-off may be overdone, and the stock is finding support at current levels. The upward sloping support and resistance lines indicate a potential 40-80% gain if TEM can continue to show resilience in the face of selling pressure. The stock currently trades below it's 20 day EMA, but the recent rally shows that it could potentially find support along this average before continuing to trend upwards. In Conclusion: Tempus AI offers a unique combination of growth potential in a rapidly expanding sector, resilience to potential political headwinds, and a technically attractive entry point. While all investments carry risk, TEM's current profile suggests it's a stock worth serious consideration for gaining exposure to the intersection of AI and healthcare in 2025, especially at these highly discounted prices. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Remember, Patience is Paramount.
NASDAQ:TEMLong
by PatienceIsParamount
RBOB post tariff structure and range to take advantage of!Hi guys today we are starting off with RBOB , which has been quiet for the past month and it has been trading in a structured range between 2.05 as a high resistance and 1.92 / 1.94 as strong support. As of today we are currently sitting at the given support line of 1.92 and the latest news which came from President Trump that he will impose tariffs on Canadian and Mexican Imports , which would probably impact and touch the Oil Industry. The U.S. imports 4M barrels of Crude Oil every single day from Canada and around 900-1M barrels of Oil Crude Oil from Mexico. These tariffs would definitely touch the consumer as a long term which would give us a boost into the overall demand / supply play around the prices of Petroleum Products. Current entry RBOB (Gasoline) 1.9300 entry level, with two separate targets. Target 1: 1.9755 Target 2: 2.0310 The strategy can be repeated after the targets are touched with a patient retracement of the lower support line and input similar targets.
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by DG55Capital
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025. Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy. Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market. Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth. The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape. Forex Market: A Year of Divergence Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration. The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade. The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China. Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025. Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns. Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist. Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December. The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty. Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets. Central Bank Policies Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements. Global Economic Recovery The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets. Trade War Uncertainty Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery. Artificial Intelligence and Innovation AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets. Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape. Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
GBPAUD Long IdeaHere is an idea: GBPAUD Long. Why you may ask, here are a few reasons: - UK General Elections on December 12th (current predictions are Tories winning the elections, and market wants Tories to win) - December 15th Tariffs (Trump still hasn't taken a decision on what to do with December 15th tariffs, most likely I believe he will keep them as tensions has started to rise a little bit between the 2 countries) - China (CNY) Exports numbers weren't very good, and by direct correlation AUD gets also impacted negatively as AUD and CNY are partners. Let me know what you guys think, any comments, fell free to let me know.
Long
by jimnakmtl
AUDJPY Trade OpinionActually, the news from the RBA Gov Lowe does not mention the economy nor monetary policy in his speech. RBA Gov Lowe is still confident consumers will spend more. Australian weekly consumer confidence rises to 109.0 this week from 108.1 the previous. China's inflation data for November were better than expected but cpi had good changes more than PPI. Things weren't too bad from Australia's side but the yen is taking over against the Aussie so far which seems fishy but talking about the yellow metal it is gaining upward momentum after the deep fall last time. Safe havens are acting shady at the moment. Ahead this week, there are event risks including the FOMC Wednesday and tariff announcement due from the US on Sunday. If those are what market players fear about maybe risk appetite have dropped lower which is helping the safe havens and we should be taking care of this risk sentiment to be either positive or negative throughout the week which should make things easier to predict the direction for this cross pair.
by Anatta0
Trade Ideas Position: Gold BatA golden trading opportunity for this upcoming second Brexit referendum on 12Dec19, yes you hear me right. It is no different to a second referendum when 1 party is pro-Brexit and another party is pro-Brestay. The UK people have another chance to vote what their heart desire, to stay in the EU or to leave. How the market will move, I've shared on my previous post on GBPUSD(link at the bottom), which every potential outcome it can happen, factor in 15Dec US Tariffs decision, it does have a strong possibility of Gold appreciation, you just have to look for a good entry. The setup I have for a more immediate approach will be the 1-hourly chart on a trend trading setup. This setup is not as beautiful as what I wish it could be, a strong bearish move follow by a consolidation near D pose a threat of further expansion to the downside, which may extend further and beyond point D, all is needed and prefer is X is not broken. I will definitely need a PRZ confirmation to engage the trade.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by RaynLim
AUSSIE Has Bottomed! For Now Atleast. Might Aim For 0.69500 Have a look at the snapshot above for AUDUSD weekly TF. It shows the support and resistance levels represented by red horizontal lines. At the moment the price HIT 0.67000 level and is bouncing around near that level, suggesting a BOTTOM or The support has been respected (well at least for now). The main chart, shows AUDUSD on daily TF where as you can see the daily candles have started to form a range. If this range gets broken the price would aim for daily 50 EMA. Now for this to happen we need the daily candle to breakout and close above the range (note: 4hr candle would provide an early signal but there are high chances that it may be a fakeout!). After the breakout happens and gets confirmed we can opt to take this pair LONG and target the daily 50 EMA. However trading such a volatile pair on daily TF is risky as it would trigger the SL or TP quickly due to unexpected news in the current fundamental market. Therefore sticking to the weekly TF is the best option and safest based on the current market situation. For those of you who are eager to take this trade on daily TF to target the DAILY EMA, please exercise caution and do it at your own risk! Now getting back to the technical picture, we need to see the daily candle close convincingly above the daily 50 EMA so we can opt to take this pair LONG towards the 0.695000 level where the descending line of the channel is present plus the WEEKLY 50 EMA. Fundamentally, we have seen the escalation of the tradewar which has heavy effects on the AUSSIE. However we have also seen that a china is ready to start talks again with the U.S giving some hopes to the market. Due to this reason i feel the AUSSIE can target 0.69500 and then from thereafter the free fall would begin again. Shall there be any updates about the trade entry, i will provide them in a new post. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Delayed tariffs "for Christmas" might help HASBRO News/fundamental The USTR says that the tariffs on some items, including “certain toys,” will be delayed until Dec. 15. September is a key shipping month for those companies as they prepare for the holiday shopping season, when the majority of the industry’s business occurs. Hasbro told CNBC earlier this month that it would have “no choice but to pass along the increased costs to our U.S. customers” if the tariffs were put into place. -- Great risk reward ratio.
NASDAQ:MATLong
by dorfmanmaster
3
USDMXN - Buy Mexican Peso!After Mexico and the USA reached a deal to curb migration and avoid tariffs on Mexican imports, the Mexican peso strengthened around 2 percent against the dollar during the Asian trading. I expect the USDMXN to go lower during the American trade session as well. In the long run, I still believe USDMXN will go lower than 18.90 if there are no more conflicts between the USA and Mexico. However, Trump could threat Mexico again with tariffs as a weapon to get fast results from Mexico, especially during this time (elections in 2020), making the Mexican peso weak. The immediate support is the 18.9 area (blue line). If we break that support, we could go to the second strong support at 18.75 and then lower. It is important to notice that the USDMXN price is in a triangle since last year. If there is good news from Mexico, we could finally break the triangle to the downside. Thanks for reading!
Short
by Joel_Ochoa
USDJPY HARMONIC COMPLETEDThe USDJPY currency pair took a nose dive over the past week due to to global trade wars currently underway. The USDJPY pair fell over 100 pips on Friday afternoon, May 31, 2019 which completed the BC leg on this identified bearish Gartley. I have also identified a bullish Gartley on the 5m-15m timeframes confirming the bulls entering the market after the massive decline Friday afternoon. My exact entry was performed on the 15m timeframe chart. Happy Trading and ALWAYS Manage your risk.
Long
by UrbanGeniusOfficial
EURAUD Likely To Test 1.55 level Amid Risk ON Appetite!With the potential Trade deal getting even closer among the worlds two largest economy and trump delaying the tariffs, The Australian Dollar may appreciate but NOT too much. In the analysis below i explained why the AUD is in for some benefit but DO NOT expect it rally should the trade deal be made! Same goes Fundamental analysis goes for the EURAUD however in this case shall the trade deal be made the EUR would likely be appreciating but not as compared to the AUD. this week kicks off with busy schedule today with FED chairman about to comment on the monetary policy and the impact the trade war is having on the economy. Have a read at the article below: Daily FX Market Roundup February 25, 2019 Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. We are starting this busy trading week with solid gains in equities and currencies. Thanks to President Trump who officially delayed the next round of tariffs, all of the major currency pairs are trading higher led by gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. While the president hinted at this outcome last week, investors were relieved that his views did not change before an official announcement was made. Of course, the decision to extend the deadline was an easy one because it creates good will without a real commitment. Still, investors liked that it was open ended and that the truce will last until the summit between President Trump and President Xi next month. Assuming that both sides continue to make progress, Trump says they will be planning for a Summit at Mar-a-Lago to conclude an agreement. Speculation has now shifted from an extension to a conclusion of the trade war. Memorandums of understanding are being drafted in 6 key areas that include cyber theft, intellectual property, currency and non-tariff barriers. While there will be legs to this rally, it's important to understand that a final trade agreement could take many forms. The US could promise to keep tariffs where they are (with no further increases) and review them in a few months/years or they could abolish them completely. There’s also the possibility that a deal “might not happen at all” according to Trump but he’s motivated to get it done. Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill Tuesday to testify before Congress. His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY/14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high-beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall, which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism. EUR/USD ended the day at its highest level in more than 2 weeks but it remains firmly within its recent range. A move above 1.1390 is needed for the upside breakout to be real. Sterling extended its gains above 1.31 versus the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister May delayed the “meaningful vote” to March 12, two weeks before they are scheduled to leave the European Union. This decision should have been negative for the currency but investors believe that by running down the clock, May leaves Parliament with no choice but to take over the Brexit process. She’ll have to request an extension of Article 50 or risk being shut out of negotiations. There’s talk that the European Commission could consider a 2-year delay and the Labour party is moving toward supporting a second referendum. Both choices are better than the current course, which is what investors are banking on. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency that failed to benefit from the risk rally and oil prices are to blame. Crude tumbled more than 3% after a tweet from President Trump that simply said “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” While there was no specific threat, investors feared that the president, who hasn’t tweeted about oil since December, is returning to his criticism of the alliance. It is also a nudge to Saudi Arabia who previously raised output on the back of pressure from the Trump Administration *************************************************** END OF ARTICLE **************************************************************************************************** SOURCE: www.investing.com With FED chairman speaking this week, the USD is in for a shakeout which inturn would affect other currencies specifically speaking about AUD, JPY, NZD and EURO. On a technical perspective of this trade analysis, the price on the daily TF is forming a rough head and shoulders pattern and the neckline is just seem to be present above the weekly 50 EMA. Shall the neckline break it would also be favorable the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA in the process with convincing fashion. The next support based on the Monthly charts lies at the 1.55 crucial level where the price is expected to be headed! Based on all the fundamental analysis and technical ones shall the criteria meet i will likely wait for the neckline to break and retest before making any suitable entry. However we are also keeping an eye out for the AUDUSD pair as these two are kind of correlated which makes executing two trades a risky scenario. Whichever pair gives the best outcome i will possibly take either one of these AUD related pair trade! This just represents my analysis on this pair, shall there be a suitable trade criteria i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis