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Tarrifs

GBPAUD Long IdeaHere is an idea: GBPAUD Long. Why you may ask, here are a few reasons: - UK General Elections on December 12th (current predictions are Tories winning the elections, and market wants Tories to win) - December 15th Tariffs (Trump still hasn't taken a decision on what to do with December 15th tariffs, most likely I believe he will keep them as tensions has started to rise a little bit between the 2 countries) - China (CNY) Exports numbers weren't very good, and by direct correlation AUD gets also impacted negatively as AUD and CNY are partners. Let me know what you guys think, any comments, fell free to let me know.
Long
by jimnakmtl
AUDJPY Trade OpinionActually, the news from the RBA Gov Lowe does not mention the economy nor monetary policy in his speech. RBA Gov Lowe is still confident consumers will spend more. Australian weekly consumer confidence rises to 109.0 this week from 108.1 the previous. China's inflation data for November were better than expected but cpi had good changes more than PPI. Things weren't too bad from Australia's side but the yen is taking over against the Aussie so far which seems fishy but talking about the yellow metal it is gaining upward momentum after the deep fall last time. Safe havens are acting shady at the moment. Ahead this week, there are event risks including the FOMC Wednesday and tariff announcement due from the US on Sunday. If those are what market players fear about maybe risk appetite have dropped lower which is helping the safe havens and we should be taking care of this risk sentiment to be either positive or negative throughout the week which should make things easier to predict the direction for this cross pair.
by jessi061
Trade Ideas Position: Gold BatA golden trading opportunity for this upcoming second Brexit referendum on 12Dec19, yes you hear me right. It is no different to a second referendum when 1 party is pro-Brexit and another party is pro-Brestay. The UK people have another chance to vote what their heart desire, to stay in the EU or to leave. How the market will move, I've shared on my previous post on GBPUSD(link at the bottom), which every potential outcome it can happen, factor in 15Dec US Tariffs decision, it does have a strong possibility of Gold appreciation, you just have to look for a good entry. The setup I have for a more immediate approach will be the 1-hourly chart on a trend trading setup. This setup is not as beautiful as what I wish it could be, a strong bearish move follow by a consolidation near D pose a threat of further expansion to the downside, which may extend further and beyond point D, all is needed and prefer is X is not broken. I will definitely need a PRZ confirmation to engage the trade.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by RaynLim
AUSSIE Has Bottomed! For Now Atleast. Might Aim For 0.69500 Have a look at the snapshot above for AUDUSD weekly TF. It shows the support and resistance levels represented by red horizontal lines. At the moment the price HIT 0.67000 level and is bouncing around near that level, suggesting a BOTTOM or The support has been respected (well at least for now). The main chart, shows AUDUSD on daily TF where as you can see the daily candles have started to form a range. If this range gets broken the price would aim for daily 50 EMA. Now for this to happen we need the daily candle to breakout and close above the range (note: 4hr candle would provide an early signal but there are high chances that it may be a fakeout!). After the breakout happens and gets confirmed we can opt to take this pair LONG and target the daily 50 EMA. However trading such a volatile pair on daily TF is risky as it would trigger the SL or TP quickly due to unexpected news in the current fundamental market. Therefore sticking to the weekly TF is the best option and safest based on the current market situation. For those of you who are eager to take this trade on daily TF to target the DAILY EMA, please exercise caution and do it at your own risk! Now getting back to the technical picture, we need to see the daily candle close convincingly above the daily 50 EMA so we can opt to take this pair LONG towards the 0.695000 level where the descending line of the channel is present plus the WEEKLY 50 EMA. Fundamentally, we have seen the escalation of the tradewar which has heavy effects on the AUSSIE. However we have also seen that a china is ready to start talks again with the U.S giving some hopes to the market. Due to this reason i feel the AUSSIE can target 0.69500 and then from thereafter the free fall would begin again. Shall there be any updates about the trade entry, i will provide them in a new post. this just represents my analysis and outlook of this pair.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Delayed tariffs "for Christmas" might help HASBRO News/fundamental The USTR says that the tariffs on some items, including “certain toys,” will be delayed until Dec. 15. September is a key shipping month for those companies as they prepare for the holiday shopping season, when the majority of the industry’s business occurs. Hasbro told CNBC earlier this month that it would have “no choice but to pass along the increased costs to our U.S. customers” if the tariffs were put into place. -- Great risk reward ratio.
NASDAQ:MATLong
by dorfmanmaster
3
USDMXN - Buy Mexican Peso!After Mexico and the USA reached a deal to curb migration and avoid tariffs on Mexican imports, the Mexican peso strengthened around 2 percent against the dollar during the Asian trading. I expect the USDMXN to go lower during the American trade session as well. In the long run, I still believe USDMXN will go lower than 18.90 if there are no more conflicts between the USA and Mexico. However, Trump could threat Mexico again with tariffs as a weapon to get fast results from Mexico, especially during this time (elections in 2020), making the Mexican peso weak. The immediate support is the 18.9 area (blue line). If we break that support, we could go to the second strong support at 18.75 and then lower. It is important to notice that the USDMXN price is in a triangle since last year. If there is good news from Mexico, we could finally break the triangle to the downside. Thanks for reading!
Short
by Joel_Ochoa
USDJPY HARMONIC COMPLETEDThe USDJPY currency pair took a nose dive over the past week due to to global trade wars currently underway. The USDJPY pair fell over 100 pips on Friday afternoon, May 31, 2019 which completed the BC leg on this identified bearish Gartley. I have also identified a bullish Gartley on the 5m-15m timeframes confirming the bulls entering the market after the massive decline Friday afternoon. My exact entry was performed on the 15m timeframe chart. Happy Trading and ALWAYS Manage your risk.
Long
by UrbanGeniusOfficial
EURAUD Likely To Test 1.55 level Amid Risk ON Appetite!With the potential Trade deal getting even closer among the worlds two largest economy and trump delaying the tariffs, The Australian Dollar may appreciate but NOT too much. In the analysis below i explained why the AUD is in for some benefit but DO NOT expect it rally should the trade deal be made! Same goes Fundamental analysis goes for the EURAUD however in this case shall the trade deal be made the EUR would likely be appreciating but not as compared to the AUD. this week kicks off with busy schedule today with FED chairman about to comment on the monetary policy and the impact the trade war is having on the economy. Have a read at the article below: Daily FX Market Roundup February 25, 2019 Kathy Lien, Managing Director of FX Strategy for BK Asset Management. We are starting this busy trading week with solid gains in equities and currencies. Thanks to President Trump who officially delayed the next round of tariffs, all of the major currency pairs are trading higher led by gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. While the president hinted at this outcome last week, investors were relieved that his views did not change before an official announcement was made. Of course, the decision to extend the deadline was an easy one because it creates good will without a real commitment. Still, investors liked that it was open ended and that the truce will last until the summit between President Trump and President Xi next month. Assuming that both sides continue to make progress, Trump says they will be planning for a Summit at Mar-a-Lago to conclude an agreement. Speculation has now shifted from an extension to a conclusion of the trade war. Memorandums of understanding are being drafted in 6 key areas that include cyber theft, intellectual property, currency and non-tariff barriers. While there will be legs to this rally, it's important to understand that a final trade agreement could take many forms. The US could promise to keep tariffs where they are (with no further increases) and review them in a few months/years or they could abolish them completely. There’s also the possibility that a deal “might not happen at all” according to Trump but he’s motivated to get it done. Fed Chairman Powell is headed to Capitol Hill Tuesday to testify before Congress. His prepared comments on the economy and monetary policy will be released at 9:45AM NY/14:45 GMT and they should drive EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD higher. If the trade deal gives Powell a new sense of optimism, risk appetite will improve, lifting high-beta currencies. If he remain cautious, stresses the need for patience, talks about the downside risks to growth and the possibility of fewer rate hikes, the US dollar will fall, which should still be positive for EUR, AUD and NZD. USD/JPY on the other hand will rise on optimism and fall on pessimism. EUR/USD ended the day at its highest level in more than 2 weeks but it remains firmly within its recent range. A move above 1.1390 is needed for the upside breakout to be real. Sterling extended its gains above 1.31 versus the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister May delayed the “meaningful vote” to March 12, two weeks before they are scheduled to leave the European Union. This decision should have been negative for the currency but investors believe that by running down the clock, May leaves Parliament with no choice but to take over the Brexit process. She’ll have to request an extension of Article 50 or risk being shut out of negotiations. There’s talk that the European Commission could consider a 2-year delay and the Labour party is moving toward supporting a second referendum. Both choices are better than the current course, which is what investors are banking on. The Canadian dollar was the only major currency that failed to benefit from the risk rally and oil prices are to blame. Crude tumbled more than 3% after a tweet from President Trump that simply said “Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike – fragile!” While there was no specific threat, investors feared that the president, who hasn’t tweeted about oil since December, is returning to his criticism of the alliance. It is also a nudge to Saudi Arabia who previously raised output on the back of pressure from the Trump Administration *************************************************** END OF ARTICLE **************************************************************************************************** SOURCE: www.investing.com With FED chairman speaking this week, the USD is in for a shakeout which inturn would affect other currencies specifically speaking about AUD, JPY, NZD and EURO. On a technical perspective of this trade analysis, the price on the daily TF is forming a rough head and shoulders pattern and the neckline is just seem to be present above the weekly 50 EMA. Shall the neckline break it would also be favorable the price breaks the weekly 50 EMA in the process with convincing fashion. The next support based on the Monthly charts lies at the 1.55 crucial level where the price is expected to be headed! Based on all the fundamental analysis and technical ones shall the criteria meet i will likely wait for the neckline to break and retest before making any suitable entry. However we are also keeping an eye out for the AUDUSD pair as these two are kind of correlated which makes executing two trades a risky scenario. Whichever pair gives the best outcome i will possibly take either one of these AUD related pair trade! This just represents my analysis on this pair, shall there be a suitable trade criteria i will post them in a new thread. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDNOK - BEARISH CONTINUATION PATTERNHi traders, The USDNOK reversed from a resistance zone and breakout below the ascending trend line and support level. . Price seems to be building a bullish retracement which is probably part of a wave 4 of a larger wave A. . Price has the potential to make a bearish bounce at our confluence level as planned on the chart which could indicate the continuation of the downtrend to the support zone. . We will wait for the completion of the corrective structure and look for a breakout of the blue counter trend line to take advantage of the pending bearish move. . Thanks for reading!
Short
by Veejahbee