Bonds pullback to bottom of rangeto 125 -122 area looks likely soon. I expect a fast move down after all this consolidation, from there it's a strong buy.
Good luck!
TBT
TBT Bull Flag. MACD + RSI DivergenceTBT, the Long Rate Fund; Or short TLT fund is showing signs of strength on the MACD and RSI; with divergences. The previous month saw high volume indicating interest around the current price levels. It is sitting at the 200 SMA. Currently much of the market is pricing in rate drops. However, we have have FOMC on May 2nd, and have been hearing roomers of another rate hike by the FED. If this happens, TBT will likely go up, confirming the divergences on the graph, and breaking out of the current wedge.
Stopping Volume Spike TBT. Bull Flag Formation after breakout. TBT, the short TLT 20 year bond ticker looks neutral in the short term and bullish in the longer term. High volume breakout of descending pattern down, and now a bull flag set up. A high volume spike and a stopping bar down has preceded a move up twice over the the last year.
This is speculation over higher rates in the general market and from the fed, which would be correlated with lower equity valuations based on DCFs and opportunity costs associated with being in stocks vs bonds.
TBT, D1 | Potential bullish reversalPrice is approaching a key support level, it could bounce and we could see the momentum carry price up to its take profit target.
Entry: 26.73
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support
Stop Loss: 26.00
Why we like it:
There is an intermediate overlap support
Take Profit: 32.61
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
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Long TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Yr TreasuryThe narrative from earlier this yr that slowing growth would cause the Fed to pivot sooner rather than later is slowly being undone as market participants realize that inflation is sticky and likely to result in rates higher for longer from the Fed. As a play on higher rates I like TBT the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Yr Treasury ETF. It has recently broken its downward sloping trend line and looks poised to take off here.
TBT Ultrashort Treasuries Ready to ReverseFrom the chart, the uptrend from the market top November 2021 peaked and reversed from
a double top. Now on the downtrend , it has hit the Fib 0.5 level of the retracement.
I look for a reversal to the upside now as that Fib level is tested and holding.
I will play this with some call option contracts with an expiration in 4 weeks.
TBT | 20 Year Treasury Oversold | BounceThe fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the fund's investment objective. The index includes publicly-issued U.S. Treasury securities with minimum term to maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have $300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve. The fund is non-diversified.
US30Y - 41 yr bull market in bonds comes to an abrupt end. US30Y - 41 yr bull market in bonds comes to an abrupt end. US30Y yields headed much much higher.
TLT Bond ETF Setup for Reversal to LONG Relatively WeakNASDAQ:TLT
In comparing the ratio of TLT to QQQ, I have found the ratio
or relative strength is at its historical low range.
I conclude, now may be an excellent time to shift
assets into TLT if a trader believes that the bear market rally
for equities is loosing momentum or possibly reversing.
This is not a recommendation as to a trade and just my perspective
from analysis.
TLT Bond ETF Setup for Reversal to LONGNASDAQ:TLT
On the 4H Chart, TLT is sitting on minor support with major support below that.
It is near to the bottom of open Bollinger Bands and is inclined to move through
the basis line closer to the upper band.
Significant resistance is 5 and 15% upside.
I see a swing long trade with the stop loss below the major support and targets
before the major resistances, yielding a very good reward for risk.
Call options are another possibility to consider.
TLT - Head and Shoulders formingJust a pretty straight forward head and shoulders forming. Guess market doesn't like low yields after all? Time frame - probably B-wave rally ahead of next FOMC, then dump before FOMC. I'm trying to trade bear call spreads above 114 using TBT (better use of capital at $26 strike on TBT) and will sell bull put spreads at TLT near 120...probably....on TBT that's a bull put spread somewhere around $22 or $23.
Thoughts?
US10Y bounced off the 2018 high and fell back to the 50MAThis is temporary until we see some serious inflation abatement. This pull back is flight from equities driven bonds catch a bid. iF THE REAL economy doesn't improve soon then the bonds only support is flight from worse outcomes. Also the fed balance sheet run off will support yields in the medium term as it constitutes a supply increase. So if inflation persists and liquidity dries up from fed tightening yields may move sideways.....and break the older channel. Go gold. I was long TBT for quite a while but that play is uncertain here.
$TLT Monthly has a bearish crossoverAs rates rise, TLT showing more and more weakness by the day and is testing critical support levels. While the month isn't over we have produced an aggressive crossover sell signal. If inflation expectations and rate rises / QT continue to come to fruition I would expect rates to continue to rise. Which is a bubble / stonk headwind.
Dead Cat Bounce - I am 100% VIX and did not TP on friday (!)Hi folks!
See my linked posts for more information regarding the macro state - I am just mentioning the arguments in bulletts it here:
- The Chinese property crisis in getting worse by the minute - although mainstream media does not care.
- Margin Debt in U.S. accounts is almost 1 Trillion (apx. 4% of GDP !!!!)
- Real income down over 2% so far in 2021 due to inflation
- Index bubble (indexes are much more expensive than they should compared to market in general)
- Central Banks are and/or plans to strap liquidity faster than expected.
- Stock prices assume large GDP-growth in perpetuity, which is impossible with falling real income (70% of GDP comes from retail purchases)
- Terrible technicals (for those that care - and in a frothy market it seems that a lot of market actors do, so it actually has at least some slight predictive power).
= > Everyone needs to spend a bigger portion of their income on living, and thus have to sell stock and/or unwind leverage.
In addition, all are in the same boat since everyone are deep in the green, so it is very easy to sell if the movie stops - implying that massive trampling is very likely.
Do not bet that you are able to be the first one out because you think you are smarter than everyone - that is what everyone is doing right now, and only a very chosen few will get out in time.
DYOR.
NFA.
Never take the word of others as a given, and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
For the record, I am 100% in VIX futures now, and I did not take profits on friday! (I do not recommend buying VIX contracts now - they should have been bought in the 15-16 range imo.).
I wish you all well :)
TBT - US rates stay down...a little longerTBT trying to put a bottom in here with good volume support, a recent gap fill and potential selling climax
However indicators not confirming a bottom/turn up yet. Further, chart dynamics predict more down as the larger Wave 2 wants to finishes lower.
US will likely raise rates relatively soon and sometime later this year, with the rest of the world - just not yet.
Not financial advice.
$TBT Go long TBT as a play on rising rates. It appears that the 10yr has formed a double bottom and is ready to reverse.
The economy is strong and the recovery is going well. The Delta variant is currently peaking so things will only get better going forward.
Technicals look good on the TBT chart and the fundamentals backing the thesis are solid. TBT is a good complement to your portfolio's other holdings and a way to take advantage of a strong economy.
TBT: LONG TRADE IDEATBT broke out of a long bottoming base.
Bullish set up based on technicals and fundamentals.
Targets and levels on the chart.
Trade safe.
TBT - Next Big Mover?Without too much noise, interest rates appear to be creeping up. In comparing with other trading instruments I watch, it appears to have the biggest potential for a move. As the rising rates indicate an increase in inflation, I've also had my eyes on a few commodities. Inflation has too long been downplayed but we all know the reality of inflation because we are exposed to the reality, not the engineered inflation figures that show there is none. Soybeans have looked interesting (SOYB). Also watching DBA for a broader commodity play. Oil as well. Started taking positions in some like XOM. Could be testing a long term low. Politically, the oil industry appears toxic but such fears often prove to be great buying opportunities. I'm taking some shots here across the inflation spectrum.
Bonds slipping away (bearish indicator crossover)The cross is using the 20 and 50 exponential moving average .
Every time the shorter exponential moving average crosses the longer one, this indicates a bearish signal.
You can see the times this has worked in the past, in the same chart.
EMA-cross trend analysisWhen the 20ema crosses below or above the 50ema, it has been an amazing signal in trend reversals.
Creating the strategy on your own is very easy to build and follow.
The inverse of the TLT is TBT; which could prove to be interesting if we continue to see interest rates tick higher.
Important to note, that the Bull-cross has been much more indicative than the Bear-cross in the past.
TBT. P-Modeling Pt 1. Junk Bonds of CajunEntry $17.00
TP1: 33$.
Multi-year Bullish Harmonic String.
Supporting Mean Reversion Levels.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with me,
Glitch420
