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$BTC sitting on 2 supports #SequentialHi Folks, BTC is still evolving in a bear channel. On last analysis, we were starting a new bullish trend (Countdown 1/13). This bullish countdown has not yet been invalidated (2/13), however we are now in a more bearish posture: On August 28th, we triggered a sell signal with a red 2 closing below red 1 low. BTC is now sitting on 2 supports: - TDST Support Lines @9500 USD - Bear channel middle line @9400 USD If today or tomorrow price close below red candle 3 low (August 29th low), we could trigger a second sell signal and add to the first position. Even if we are now advanced in the setup count (5/9), the breakdown of these 2 supports could smatch down the price to the lower line of the bear channel. Otherwise, if the 2 supports holds, we could quickly price flipped and continue the bullish sequential countdown and form a bar 3/13. I still favor the bull flag, but for now I prefer to remain neutral. MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MATHR3E
1
$XAU #Gold up we go #Sequential#Gold is showing bullishness on multiple timeframes. - The monthly chart is forming a 9 setup with a Recycle Flag which indicates the momentum is very strong and the underlying bull trend will intensify. - The Weekly chart is confirming the nascent bullish trend: A bullish Sequential Sell countdown has started and currently on a bar 2/13. - The daily chart is the only one that shows a possible short term pullback to come. Currently forming a Price Flip after a 9 Sell setup, we could have a sell signal tomorrow with a red candle 2 below today's candle low. Note I have configured the Price Flip parameter to 5 (Calculated from the corresponding close 5 bars earlier) The accuracy of my sequential indicator is improved looking at past results. However past results do not guarantee future performance ;) MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MATHR3E
$BTC Bears about to take over #SequentialWeekly $BTC has reached the Sequential 13 (S13) countdown after finding a TOP on a Combo 13 (C13). A TD Setup bar 1 (red 1/9) is also in progress and next week will be decisive to confirm a Sell Signal (Red 2 below Red 1 low). Previous resistance was around 8900 USD so we might find some support at this level before a continuation of a new downtrend. If the downtrend is not confirmed during the upcoming weeks, then we could form a bull flag and continue higher to new ATH. MATHR3E Sequential indicators: TD Sequential DeMARK Combo Extension
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MATHR3E
Unique indicator by DeMark: TD Moving AverageDear friends! I continue describing the collection of Thomas DeMark’s forex indicators. In my previous articles, I have already explained such tools as Today, I going to deal with one of the most commonly used indicators in the trading world. This is the moving average MA, but it is not just a usual MA, it is Thomas DeMark Moving Average (TD Moving Average). Anyone, who has ever employed this indicator, knows that it, on the one hand, is rather simple to use and sends quite clear signals; on the other hand, it has a number of significant drawbacks, as it is ineffective in high volatility markets or nontrending markets. In addition, the moving average is a lagging indicator, therefore relying on its signals alone in its usual form is not the most effective trading strategy. Of course, you can increase the period of the Moving Average to reduce the number of false signals, but in this case the lag will be even greater and there will not be much sense in such signals. If you significantly reduce the MA period, the lag from the price will be minimal, however, the number of false signals will sharply increase. Thomas DeMark invented a new kind of the Moving Average indicator. He tried to maintain the advantages of the indicator but eliminated its drawbacks. That is how there appeared two indicators: TD Moving Average I and TD Moving Average II. TD Moving Average I was originally designed as a trailing stop, and it was to indicate the level to exit a trade. However, the indicator in fact has become very efficient in identifying the trends in the market and finding out not only the right exit levels but the entry points as well. At the same time, like all other TD indicators, TD Moving Average I is drawn based on relative price movements, rather than absolute values, and therefore, no separate settings for each timeframe are required. So, in order to avoid a time-lag, you just need to track the indicator on shorter timeframes. Before I start explaining the indicator, I want to thank @GravityWave, who made this indicator available to everyone in the tradingview library. Let us study the case when a moving average signals a bullish trend It occurs when the current bar’s low is greater than all previous 12 lows. If this condition is met, the indicator analyzes the current price bar and three more in future. If during the period of these four bars, the low isn’t higher than the 12 previous lows, the line disappears. If during one of these four bars, the low is higher than 12 previous lows, TD Moving Average I will be active during at least four next bars. It is clear from the above figure that once there is a bar whose low is greater than 12 previous lows, there starts a bullish TD Moving Average starting from the 12th bar .https://www.tradingview.com/x/kYCYRC0d/ The chart above provides a good example of the rule when the moving average is extinguished, i.e. the bullish trend is cancelled. You see that the low of June 27 is lower than the previous 12 lows and the next three bars can’t consolidate their lows above the 12 previous ones. Therefore, as soon as there are four bars complete, there is a reversal signal at the fourth bar and the bullish trend extinguishes. In general, if we know how this indicator is constructed in such cases, as it is demonstrated in the chart above when the low is much lower than the previous ones, we can already understand that the lows of the next three bars will hardly exceed the highest low of the last 12 bars. So, without wasting time, we can already look for a point to exit a trade. If we go back to our example, it is clear at already the third bar that the highest low at 11 741 USD won’t be broken through, and so, one could take profit from the long trade, rather than wait until the fifth bar closes (marked with a red tick). This case illustrates how a thorough understanding of the indicator work principle helps employing it as effectively as possible. When there is a downtrend, a bearish moving average is built according to a similar calculation formula. Only 12 highs are analyzed instead of the lows. It is clear from the above chart that once there is the 13th bar whose high is lower than 12 previous highs, then, starting from the 12 bar, there starts a bearish TD Moving Average, which is a sell signal. If we apply the above conditions to the same chart, there will be an interrupted moving average, where the green line drawn under the lows will indicate a bullish market, and the red one, above the highs, indicates a bearish market. In this case, according to the classics, the entry point will be the first candle in the trend (indicated by the arrow in the chart above), and the exit point will be at the close of the bar after the projection crosses the last value of the bullish (bearish) TD moving average (the points are marked with crosses in the chart above). As it is clear from the chart above, if the market is trading flat, such trades don’t yield significant profits, and may often result in losses. To rule out such cases, one should employ this indicator together with other DeMark's tools, including TD Moving Average II. This indicator is displayed in the chart above (thanks parsak21 for free access to the tool!). TD Moving Average II is made up of two simple moving averages (SMA) that are drawn based on the close. The short-term MA is a 3-period line, the long-term one is a 34-period SMA. Whereas TD Moving Average I needs a specific condition to be met in order to appear on the chart (so that it can indicate the market is trending), TD Moving Average II is always displayed. The tree-period moving average is drawn in comparison to the close level two bars ago, and the 34-period moving average is drawn based on the previous bar. Unlike traditional moving averages, however, TD Moving Average II applies a rate of change (ROC), to each of the averages. I described the rate of change (ROC). Therefore, the market sentiment is purely bullish when the ROC is in the buyer zone, and the short-term three-period MA is above the thirty-four–period moving average. In the above figure, I highlighted such zones with green. As you see, they cover most of the bullish trend. When the ROC is in the neutral area or in the seller zone, one mustn’t buy. Those, who have long positions open, should take the profit, even if the short-term MA is still above the long-term 34-period one. Finally, if you apply the TD Moving Average I, the TD Moving Average II and the ROC together, you will have quite a safe trading strategy. A buy entry will be indicated when all the above tools send a buy signal (marked with a green arrow). However, as MAs are a lagging indicator, I recommend looking for an exit point in short-term timeframes. In our example, the entry point is in the daily timeframe. So, the exit point will be signalled when the TD Moving Average I indicates a bearish trend on the H4 timeframe. As you see from the chart above, there are hardly any false exit signals on the historical data. In addition, we have always been in the trend and taken the most profits from the bullish trend. We shall see how this strategy will perform in future. So far, I have finished describing another tool by Thomas DeMark. I will describe other useful DeMark's indicators and explain how to apply them to BTCUSD trading in my next articles. Subscribe not to miss the continuation! I wish you good luck and good profits! Great regards! Mikhail @Hyipov ________________________________________ PS: If you agree with my ideas, write “+” in the comments; if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :)
by Hypov
16
$BTC Weekly Analysis #SequentialHey There, Finally back with an improved version of my Sequential Indicator! Hope it will help you to have more confidence in your trading decision by using it. For more details you can check my profile. So we topped last week with a Combo 13 Sell signal. (Note that the last C13 was on the 2017 Rally TOP). Combo 13 Sell signal coincide perfectly with the rejection of the 0.618/0.65 Fib Resistance Golden Zone. It can be a trend reversal at this point but for now I favor the scenario of a consolidation pattern below that level, before a bullish breakout. Sequential Indicator is still in favor of bulls with a Sequential bar 9/13. Monthly Sequential is also in a bullish trend (bar 5/13) Have a nice Weekend! MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MATHR3E
2
$XRP not convincing yet #SequentialDespite last bullish news (MoneyGram Partnership), XRP price has stagnated within a symmetrical triangle. On the 4H chart, we just completed a recycle count, so price could now reach another time the lower line of the triangle to complete an ABCDE pattern. Probabilities are still in favor of a bullish breakout, but the lack of strength with the last news could lead us lower to the next support zone @ 0.35USD About TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by MATHR3E
$BTC Bullish but stay cautious #SequentialBTC trend remains very bullish We closed last week above TDST resistance. On daily chart, price seems to navigate well through this shifted pitch fork since December bottom. Next move could lead us above 12K USD However, price could consolidate another time before next leg higher as we are on a daily Combo 13 Sell combined with a weekly bar 8/13. Do not trade against the trend but stay caution with these warning signs About TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MATHR3E
4
$BTC Ascending Triangle #SequentialCOINBASE:BTCUSD is forming an ascending triangle pattern, consolidating previous rally. The anticipated head and shoulder pattern was not confirmed by Sequential indicator as countdown was only on bar 7/13. Now, sequential Sell countdown is on bar 8/13 following an aggressive 13 sell which implicate a probable top for the next days and reinforce chances for the ascending triangle to reach the APEX. Breakout is expected to the north, but there is still a probability to break to the south. A Close above today's candle will confirm the breakout. About TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by MATHR3E
3
$XAU #Gold Elliott and #SequentialThe last bounce on OANDA:XAUUSD is likely impulsive and could match with an Elliott wave 3. We still seem to be in wave 4, consolidating before the 5th wave. After the 5th wave completion, we should retrace the whole movement back to 0.618 Fib level and find support @ 1300USD before another higher leg. On 12H Chart, #Sequential indicator is on a bar 5/13 of the bullish move. S13 could match with the end of Wave 5. About TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MATHR3E
$XRP More consolidation to come #SequentialBITSTAMP:XRPUSD just broke a TDST Support Now price is sitting on previous TDST Support and 50% Fib retracement level of previous bullish move. We are also at the middle of a bearish channel and could hit the bottom line aligned with the golden ratio 61.8% Fib retracement. Bearish sequential BUY countdown is still on a 3/13 so we have strong probabilities to hit that 2nd support @0.35USD Stay patient! About TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by MATHR3E
1
$LTC / $BTC More upside move likely #SequentialBINANCE:LTCBTC just completed an ascending triangle and has reached its first target. The unperfected 9 Sell setup also coincide with the start of a sequential sell countdown. This is a good indication of a possible continuation of the bullish trend. Price is consolidating for now and could form a bull pennant. A retest of the upper line of the ascending triangle @0.0137 is also possible. It would help to reset RSI and get another chance to reenter at a lower price. More about TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E Support me on Patreon
Long
by MATHR3E
$XAU #Gold Weekly vs Daily #SequentialGold has bounced strongly out of a Sequential 13 on daily basis, coinciding with a perfected 9 Buy setup on weekly scale. Now, both timeframe are struggling near their respective TDST resistance Line. A Daily Close above 1328 could be a good sign for further move higher. We also need a confirmation of this close at the end of this week. Once TDST Resistance line is pierced, we may see a retest of this level as we did with the previous TDST Resistance @1280 MATHR3E Support me on Patreon More about TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MATHR3E
$BTC Weekly 9 Sell Setup #SequentialWeekly BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Price has just been rejected by TDST Resistance line. It perfectly matched with the 9 Sell Setup. Expect a 1 to 4 bars correction which could form a possible consolidation pattern near TDST Resistance line. Bullish momentum is still in place: Sequential Sell Countdown is on bar 7/13. Wait and see if price holds before another leg higher near $10.000 (next horizontal resistance) More about TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MATHR3E
2
$XRP READY? #SequentialOn the 3D BITSTAMP:XRPUSD pair, the last S13 BUY countdown has occurred on the week of April 22 (just before last rally). Price is now stuck below TDST Resistance forming a consolidation pattern (Type Ascending triangle), so we can expect a bullish move coming on the next days/weeks. The Intermediate TDST Resistance (@ 0.367 USD) has already been pierced and retested as a support. If we get rejected by TSDST Resistance, we could come back near the previous TDST Intermediate Resistance line or lower, near the TDST Support. If we have that chance, we could get another probable entry point. More about TD+ Enhanced Sequential Indicator: MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by MATHR3E
$BTC daily bullish trend remains intact #SequentialYesterday's drop did not invalidate the daily uptrend. The previous ascending triangle that was pierced on May 26 now acts as a support. The bullish TD Sequential countdown remains valid (5/13 bars) until BITSTAMP:BTCUSD close under the "TDST Support" line or a new BUY setup (9 consecutive price bar closes that are greater than the close 4 price candles earlier) appears. Next Potential Target @ 9400 USD About TD Sequential indicator: MATHR3E
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MATHR3E