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Tdsequential

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 265)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: I then exited my long at a nominal loss and opened a short at a much worse price. May seem like bad trading but it actually brings up some important topics that I haven’t talked enough about: position sizing, risk:reward and hedging. Position: Short ETHBTC from 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short BCHBTC from 0.04628 Patterns: Bear pennant / flag Horizontal support and resistance: R: $4,371 | S: $4,200 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling into golden cross, expecting a hard bounce around 26,200 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Currently being tested Medium term trend (9 day MA): Was very surprised when we appeared to be breaking down before retesting 9 MA. Now it looks like we should. Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Rolling over and will be in line with resistance cluster at > $5,750 Overall trend: Bear Volume: nothing noteworthy that I am seeing FIB’s: (Start at $1,000 and connect to ATH’) 0.886 = $3,164 | 0.786 = $5,805 Candlestick analysis: I cannot ever remember seeing a 4 candle sequence like we have over the past four days. High volume hammer, following by a bullish spinning top (very high liklihood of leading to a bounce) and then a bearish inside bar and a breakdown of horizontal support that didn’t retest the bottom of the wick from the original hammer. A lot of words to draw no conclusions, however the pattern recognition part of my brain finds it very interesting. Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is thick from $4,400 - $4,850. TD’ Sequential: Red 8 (most important indicator to me right now) Visible Range: If we breakdown $4,000 then there should be significant support at $3,750. If we breakdown that area then I would expect a fall to $3,100 Price action: 24h: +3.07% | 2w: -32.29% | 1m: -32.77% Bollinger Bands: Closed inside daily band Trendline: 4h bear trendline is at $4,760, however the 33 MA is at $4,588 (was recently above trendline). Parabolic SAR’s are also moving in more tightly at $4,500 (When SAR’s get inside my MA’s then I view them as more likely to get broken) Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish Fractals: Down: $4,000 | Up: $5,692 RSI: Rekt Stochastic: Daily stoch looks bearish af’ with the recross + divergence Summary: The most important indicator to me right now is the TD’ Sequential being on a red 8. Failure to breakdown $4,000 horizontal support after breaking down the 4h bear pennant shows many signs of a trap. Furthermore I was really expecting a retest of the 8 day MA before selling off further. Now it is looking like the price action from yesterday whipsawed me out of my long and into a short at exactly the wrong time. However that is okay. When you markets are moving you have to act fast. Sometimes you get whipsawed. Each position I took had a > 5:1 risk:reward ratio. Furthermore each position had a much greater than 20% chance of success (based on my subjective estimation). I ended up adjusting my stop loss to $128.5 right before it would have triggered due to shorter TF’s before very overbought at resistance. This is something that I am extremely weary of, however it is a small position and as I gain experience I like adding small dashes of discretion. I re calculated the risk and adjusting the stop had acceptable implications on my risk:reward considerations. There are a lot of bullish indicators right now, however the bear pennant / flag is still in tact and there is a lot of bearish momentum. When all things appear equal it is usually a very good idea to bet on the trend / momentum. This post is market as a short but would not suggest opening a short unless we get another close below the bear pennant / flag.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 261)My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “ The daily candle could be viewed as bullish (inverted hammer) but I think it is a bearish wick and the following candle finding resistance at the top of the body and quickly violating the low is confirmation.” Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 (partial profit) | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 (partial profit) | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758 Patterns: 15m is fitting into a tight trend, whereas the prior selloffs occurred in much less time Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,700 - $4,750 | R: $4,876 BTCUSDSHORTS: Daily chart is very interesting. Nasty wick indicates a wave of liquidations, however the price barely bounced. Looks like it is primed for another wave down. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): bear Medium term trend (9 day MA): bear Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bear Overall trend: bear Volume: Beautiful volume tells me that $5,000 - $5,200 could become strong resistance FIB’s: Was watching Tone Vay’s show today and he was drawing a higher TF fib at $4,750, however I still prefer it drawn at $4,262 Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu, if short is in profit can move stop to the 50% mark of today’s candle (I would prefer it above $5,200) Ichimoku Cloud: Need to zoom into the 15m chart for the cloud to be useful (shows resistance $4,915 - $5,085 TD’ Sequential: Daily r4 shows 4-5 days left to the downside. Weekly r2 shows 7-8 weeks left. Visible Range: Next average volume node is $3,619 - $4,366 | Next high volume node is $2,015 - $2,761 Price action: 24h: 12% | 2w: -22.36% | 1m: -23.89% Bollinger Bands: Close below the bottom band is very nice at this stage Trendline: Channel I was watching broke down. 15m has been in a beautiful trend since then Daily Trend: bearish af’ Fractals: he next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support. RSI: Daily RSI has not ever been this low (at least on Bitstamp) Stochastic: Recrossed and now it is diverging. Expect it to get stuck at the bottom like we saw in May. Summary: I cannot remember the last time I posted an hourly chart for the Daily Update, and I know that I have never posted a 15m chart. Those who follow this post generally do it for my macro view / TA. I won’t make it a habit of posting TF’s under the 4h, however I think this is a good learning opportunity. A general rule of thumb it is okay to watch lower TF charts when volatility is high. This hasn’t really been the case over the past couple months because we would consolidate, then make a move in < 30 minutes, and then consolidate again. Now we are forming a very nice trend on the 15m chart and that is much more natural / tradeable. If you have taken the shorts I recommended over the past week then you should be looking to take profit, if you haven’t already. It should always be done in portions and here are a few ideas: 15m - 1h close above the trendline that is drawn above. Close above the 4 MA on the 4h chart. You could also move the stop to somewhere above $5,200. I strongly prefer covering my initial position when this deep in profit and then letting the profits ride with a trailing stop. If you still are not in a short position then you missed that move and need to wait for a bounce. I don’t think that will happen until the $4,200 - $4,400 range, however that does not mean this I would even consider opening a short after that move.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 260)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: We failed to confirm the bear pennant with a close below (4h chart) and now we are attempting to break out of the top. If that happens then I expect it to be nothing more than a trap / shakeout before the breakdown. Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758 Patterns: Bear pennant (with fake breakout?) Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,452 | R: $5,555 BTCUSDSHORTS: Seeing a higher low makes me feel much better, watching for higher high Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Today closed above but quickly came back below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Surprised that the lil’ pump from today didn’t test the 9 MA. Potentially a very bearish sign and makes me think about adjusting this accordingly. Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Starting to turn down hard Overall trend: Bear Volume: Little green volume from today was no match for the large volume we saw on the selloff FIB’s: (High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th’) 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224 Candlestick analysis: That bearish wick might be considered an inverted hammer, I see it just the opposite. I view that as a textbook fake breakout from the symmetrical triangle (bear pennant) Ichimoku Cloud: The 1h cloud held up nicely as resistance. Now the last candle wicked off the bottom of it. Watch for a close below. TD’ Sequential: 1h r2 below a r1 would also be a breakdown of the cloud. Daily is on a r3 that briefly fell below the r2 (I think it will close below as well) Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $4,900 - $5,000 due to the gap in volume Price action: 24h: -0.52% | 2w: -14.06% | 1m: -13.72% Bollinger Bands: Would like to see close on the bottom band Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. Connect close on Sept 8th to the wicks on 11/14 and 11/5. I expect this to be the new bear channel that takes us to $3,000. Daily Trend: Close is bullish but I would consider it neutral with the quick pullback. Fractals: The next daily fractal that I am seeing is at $4,265 and that is exactly where I am expecting the next selloff to find support. RSI: Now we are seeing the RSI pull up. Still watching for a div’. If we make a lower low (would be needed for a div) then I would use that to draw new trendlines. Stochastic: Tried to make a bullish recross but looks like it is getting rejected Summary: The daily candle could be viewed as bullish (inverted hammer) but I think it is a bearish wick and the following candle finding resistance at the top of the body and quickly violating the low is confirmation. I will be watching for the top of the current daily candle to hold for resistance and then a close below the 4 MA. If you are looking for an entry the 1h Ichimoku Cloud and the TD’ Sequential are lining up nicely. More importantly the higher time frames confirm. A close below the 1h cloud would also be a red 2 below a red 1. However be careful about entering a short while the RSI this oversold. You are essentially betting that there will be a divergence because the RSI is at all time lows. We are also near support and I would at least expect a correction to the 8-9 MA before continuing the trend. If it were me I would either stay away or bet roughly one third my normal position size.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 259)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “The first consolidation after a move is often redistribution...The 4h chart is forming a bear pennant with a $4,350 target. That will confirm with a close below the previous candle ($5,410 on USD exchanges)” Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.000808 | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00758 Patterns: 4h bear pennant Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,457 | R: $5,560 BTCUSDSHORTS: Very, very surprised that the shorts are still pulling back Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0097% Short term trend (3 day MA): Today’s candle retested and resisted Medium term trend (8 day MA): Looks like it will be retested at ~$5,890 Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Starting to turn down significantly Overall trend: Bear Volume: Volume has dwindled down to almost nothing during the consolidation from the last ~36 hours. Expecting a move soon. FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th’) 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224 Candlestick analysis: Today closed a doji. Watch for the top or bottom of the candle to be violated. Ichimoku Cloud: I expect the 1h cloud to hold as resistance (also in line with 9 day MA) TD’ Sequential: Current candle is a r2. If it breaks down below the prior at any point then that would provide a good entry Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume Price action: 24h: +0.2% | 2w: -13.13% | 1m: -14.35% Bollinger Bands: Watching for price to stick to bottom of the daily band Trendline: Daily Trend: chop Fractals: After breaking all of the down fractals in 2018 we found support above the next one down ($5,122) RSI: All time low on daily. Watching closely for divergence Stochastic: Daily made bearish re cross Summary: We failed to confirm the bear pennant with a close below (4h chart) and now we are attempting to break out of the top. If that happens then I expect it to be nothing more than a trap / shakeout before the breakdown. I am watching the horizontals from today’s doji candle. If we breakdown below it, at any point, then that would be a red 2 below a red 1 and would provide a low risk entry. I am also watching $5,550 for horizontal resistance. If we rally through that area then I will be expecting resistance from the 9 day MA and the 34 MA on the 4h chart. Those are waiting at $5,800 - $5,880. Anywhere above $5,800 will be a very low risk / high reward shorting opportunity. If not in a position then I would be watching for a bounce to that area or or a breakdown below today’s candle.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
Bearish Divergence and potentially Bearish fundamentals for ETPBITFINEX:ETPBTC displaying bearish RSI divergence up here after the massive run it had this summer. TD counts on weekly and daily RED (bearish). Suspect this ticker was used for capital fleeing for Chinese (this is a Chinese ICO) this summer and explains the massive PUMP while everything else dumped. Finex (where massive volume was occuring) is putting in big withdrawl FEES for those that withdrawl big amounts and/or frequently from their exchange (via fiat). Interesting to see what this does to BITFINEX:ETPBTC If you take the short keep some stops in place to protect ya self.
EShort
by Duffy08
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 257)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: Took partial profit on BTC & ETH shorts and getting prepared for three potential outcomes from here Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 & Short ETH:USD from $196.32 Patterns: Broke down phase 2 of they hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,615 | S: $5,200 & $5,400 BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star from today is interesting. However there is still plenty of room to go before resistance Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0866% Short term trend (3 day MA): bear Medium term trend (8 day MA): bear Long term trend ( 34 day MA): bear Overall trend: Bearish and longest term MA’s are starting to roll over (128 is my favorite) Volume: Most volume we have seen in two consecutive days since March FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th) 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224 Candlestick analysis: Daily closed a dragonfly on high volume (usually a strong indication of a bounce) However the current candle quickly fell below the body, would not expect that to precede bounce. Ichimoku Cloud: 1h shows resistance from $5,500 - $5,800 | Daily cloud is moving down quickly TD’ Sequential: 4h hit a r9 and now it is on a g2 | Current candle is a red 9. Would love to see a perfected 9 + bull div in the RSI. Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume Price action: 24h: -0.62% | 2w: -12.69% | 1m: -14.01% Bollinger Bands: Watch for weekly to close below bottom band as confirmation of bearish momentum Trendline: Connect top of May 5th to top of July 24th. I expect this to be the top of the down trend. Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Watch for weekly to close below down fractals. Weekly Up fractal at $6,800 should not get retestest (although I wouldn’t say the same about $6,300 due to the 2014 bear trap pointed out in yesterdays post. RSI: Watching closely for bull div’ on daily Stochastic: Daily and 4h buy signal should not be overlooked. However the 3d sell signal and weekly posture are more important to me. Summary: Not much to add from yesterday’s post which summed up my thoughts for the next 1m - 1y. One thing that I did want to talk about is the craziness going on with the alts right now. Seeing Bcash, XRP’, EOS’, LTC’, ADA’ and TRX’ in the green while BTC’ and ETH’ are in the red is a huge trap! If the two market leads are selling off then it is only a matter of time before the others follow. Do not let anyone tell you nonsense about “alts’ holding strong” or “the flippening”. Instead take a look at where LTC’ fell too in the last BTC’ bear market. Stay away from buying / longing those coins over the next couple days / weeks, regardless of how tempting it may seem. You will see bull flags, resistance breakthroughs, thin order books and everyone trick in the book. Do not fall for any of it! Understand that when fear / capitulation / depression sets in with the market leaders then there will be a serious flight to safety from the alts. That will happen in the blink of an eye and it will completely wreck many of the traders who go rich over the last couple years doing nothing more than longing alts’. On the flip side if you understand the market and know how to trade then this dynamic could present some opportunities that appear too good to be true.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Short Play on 9 in 9 for CSLNYSE:CSL came across our 9 in 9 scanners past 2 days (Daily 9 inside Weekly 9) and seems like interesting short opportunity. Spitballing here...but for advanced TDreasons that I don't wish to dig into here price should target the pink line on the weekly chart shown (low of candle 6 aka Swing Low). Priced bounced from there directly into a perfected Sell Setup 9 on daily. So our Weekly is is bearish (not the type of Buy Setup 9 that you're looking to buy) and should target pink line, our Monthly is bearish (bullish count broke 1.5 months ago), and our Daily 9 just provided us a perfected sell set up into some resistance. Short recommended with pink line as first target (will target more if daily count is fresh...will for sure close if a buy set Up 9 comes before the 6 low aka Swing Low). Daily Chart with same pink target:
NYSE:CSLShort
by Duffy08
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 251)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis /position: “The price of Bitcoin' is currently at a very crucial crossroads. Can it find support above $6,350 and go on to create a higher high? I remain confident that won’t happen, mainly due to the volume.” / Short ETH:USD from $208.45 and short BTC from $6,354 Patterns: Back below bear trend line and looks like it will retest phase 2 of the hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,371 (trendline retest) | S: $6,339 (bottom of the body from today’s candle) BTCUSDSHORTS: At support with reversal dojis after the red 9 Funding Rates: Predicted to be 0.0379% in 7 hours, longs paying shorts (0.01% now) Short term trend (3 day MA): Price below MA, with MA crossing medium and long MAs = full entry signaled Medium term trend (8 day MA): Still above long MA, watch for it to follow with a bearish cross to provide confirmation Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Should act as strong resistance Overall trend: Bearish with full entry signaled Volume: Selling volume from today and yesterday exceed buying volume on breakout FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis: Bottom of today’s body is currently support. Watch for price to violate that at any time to confirm continuation of move Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud has thinned out but is also showing resistance at the trend line TD’ Sequential: Today closed a red 2 below a red 1 and the current candle is a red 3. Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. Price action: 24h: -1.57% | 2w: -0.74% | 1m: -3.54% Bollinger Bands: Bottom band is in line with phase 2 trendline Trendline: Back below bear trend and testing it for resistance. Expecting phase 2 hyperwave to get retested Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Up: $6,564 | Down: $6,207 RSI: Back in bearish territory below 50 Stochastic: Daily sell signal did a great job Summary: Bitcoin' is back below the bear trend line after breaking out on low volume and selling off on higher volume. BTCUSDSHORTS are at support and coming off a recent red 9. Funding rates are getting very expensive for longs on Bitmex, projected in 8 hours is 0.0387% while the most common in 0.01%. Consensio signaled a full entry with today's close based on my guidelines of price < all MA's and 3 crossing 8 and 30. Today was also a daily red 2 below a red 1. The green trendline is how I am drawing my phase 2 line and I think the action outlined above puts it in serious danger of breaking down. The 1 hour chart is approaching the long MA which is angled down sharply while price retests trendline for resistance. I have scaled into large short positions on BTC’. Funnily enough this is the first time in 2018 that I can remember ETH’ being in a strong position technically that BTC’. ETH’ is still above it’s medium term MA and has not seen the short may making any bearish crossovers as of yet. I do not take this to mean that ETH’ will have stronger support over the coming days and I strongly expect it will continue to fall harder and faster than BTC’ (if we do breakdown). I think this is simply due to over exuberance in alts during the last week. As BTC’ was rallying the alts were rallying harder. I actually take this as another sign that this isn’t the bottom. When alts found their last bottom it was when BTC’ was rallying hard and people were FOMOing out of alts and into BTC’. Alts continued to crash for weeks (months?) while BTC was making all time highs. Therefore I have scaled into a small ETH’ short with intentions to add when the MA crossovers signal entries.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 250)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. 250 days of the Daily Update, whooohooo! Thank you to all of the loyal readers who take the time to upvote and leave comments <3 Previous analysis / position: "Now it looks like the bears are taking over and everything I’m looking at points at a reversal within the next two days" / Short ETH:USD from $212.77 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 Patterns: Retesting bear trendline Horizontal support and resistance: Weakening S: $6,400 - $6,411 | R: $6,420 - $6,432 BTCUSDSHORTS: Failed to bounce from 9 as was expected Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% Short term trend (3 day MA): Close below 3 MA = Short entry triggered Medium term trend (8 day MA): Price is currently testing for support. Close below would signal adding to position Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Price above but it is still angled down indicating overall bear trend. Close below would signal final entry. Overall trend: Turning bearish Volume: Selling volume today outmatched buying volume on breakout, strong bearish indicator FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis:Today fully retraced prior two days Ichimoku Cloud: Daily held as resistance. 12h closed below cloud signaling short entry TD’ Sequential: 12h r2 = r1 after g8. Daily price flipped. Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish . Breaking down below $6,154 would be very bearish (hopefully didn’t need VPVR to tell you that) Price action: 24h: -1.32% | 2w: +0.15% | 1m: -2.92% Bollinger Bands: Daily tested MA and found support Trendline: At $6,346 Daily Trend: Bear Fractals: Quickly retraced below up fractals, down fractal is at $6,216 RSI: Lower low on daily, forming h&s Stochastic: Daily sell signal. Incoming 4h buy Summary: The price of Bitcoin is currently at a very crucial crossroads. Can it find support above $6,350 and go on to create a higher high? I remain confident that won’t happen, mainly due to the volume. The buyers were unimpressive on the breakout and the selling volume appears to be overwhelming at these prices. I am closely watching the low that was established at $6,373 (Bitmex). Breaking down below that area would be a very strong indication of bearish momentum picking up. Support has held strong all year from $6,000 - $6,300. However I do not think there would be nearly as many buyers this time around due to the fake breakout of the bear trendline (if that happens). Furthermore I think there would be many more scared sellers. The daily candle closed below the 3 MA and that is my first signal to start building a position. The 12h Ichimoku cloud, TD’ Sequential and daily Stochastic provided great confirmation. Next step will be a close below the 8 MA followed by a bearish cross with the 3 MA. If that all happens then I plan to be in a large short position. On the other hand I will also be very quick to close out if it turns against me. A close back above the 3 MA would signal a full exit and potential long entry (would pass on that one).
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 249)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “A clean breakthrough would come on high volume and then would have little trouble supporting a throwback which would create another higher low.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 with order at 0.97 to cover Patterns: Attempting to break out of 6 month bear trend | 1h had beautiful bull flag that broke down Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,453 | R: $6,493 BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is on a 9. Shorts are primed to pick up Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0668% confirming that longs are overleveraged Short term trend (3 day MA): Above longer term MA’s but price is crossing back below. Close below = bearish Medium term trend (8 day MA): Crossing 34 and angling up with price on top = bullish Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Still angled down slightly with price on top = neutral Overall trend: Neutral, could easily flip in either direction Volume: Yesteday’s volume was less than half of what I was watching for to consider this move real. FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.382 = $6,559 | 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis: Shooting star from todays candle with wick = body | Dark cloud cover already forming on current candle, strong indication of fake breakout Ichimoku Cloud: Today’s candle briefly broke into daily cloud and quickly wicked down. Inside 12h and 4h clouds indicates no trade zone. TD’ Sequential: 12h g8 and Daily g7 indicates that this move is exhausting Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish . Breaking down below $6,154 would be very bearish (hopefully didn’t need VPVR to tell you that) Price action: 24h: -0.69% | 2w: +0.74% | 1m: -1.62% Bollinger Bands: Finally tested the top band. Sticking close to the top band would indicate an upcoming trend, pulling back sharply with dark cloud cover indicates a likely return to the MA Trendline: Broke through trendline but there are strong indications of a fakeout / bull trap from volume, the bearish wick on today’s candle and the dark cloud cover on the current candle. Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Broke up fractal at $6,488 but is quickly pulling back below RSI: Will daily be able to create another higher low? Bear div on 4h Stochastic: Daily is overbought and posturing for a sell signal. Sell signal on 12h preceded current pullback Summary: In yesterday’s post I briefly outlined what to look for if we rally through the bear trend line to confirm that the move is real: “large volume and a supported throwback which creates a higher low” I wish I would have outlined what to look for to indicate a fakeout / bull trap because we would be checking off every box today. Volume barely exceeding the moving average and not even exceeding the high from the prior two weeks is a very strong indication of a fakeout. (In hindsight) I would consider the 2014-2015 bear market coming to an end on November 2nd 2015. Take a look at the volume that supported that move combined with the volume that preceded it. Bear markets end on low volatility and high volume. That is not an either/or proposition. The demand needs to far exceed the supply at a certain price for a reversal to occur, or else it is highly likely that the prior trend will continue. Outside of volume (most important to me) there are numerous indicators signaling overbought conditions and/or signs of a reversal: The wick on top of today’s candle may or may not be considered a shooting star depending on the exchange (is wick > / = body?), either way that is a bearish wick/candle and reeks of a fakeout. That was quickly confirmed by the current candle retracing 100% of yesterday’s move. The 1h chart was forming a beautiful bull flag, however that recently broke down and that is a bearish signal. The BTCUSDSHORTS’ are at historical support and on a TD 9. This strongly indicates to me that selling pressure will pick up in the next couple days. The funding rates provide confirmation with longs paying shorts 0.0668%. The daily TD’ Sequential is on a green 7 and the 12h hit is green 8. Both are strong indications that the trend is becoming exhausted. The daily and 12h Stochastics confirm. 12h just had a sell signal and the daily is postured to crossover in the next day or two. Yesterday I said that it was anyone’s guess where the price would go today. Now it looks like the bears are taking over and everything I’m looking at points to a reversal within the next two days. Nevertheless I still think it is too early to enter. I will be closely watching the short and medium term trends to be in my favor before re entering a short. If we fall back below the bear trendline then it will be time to start entering.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 245)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “However what is most important to me is the daily shooting star that closed 2 hours ago. My stop loss is set pennies above the top of that wick.” / Short ETH:USD from $197.81 | Short USDT:USD from 0.968 (order at 0.97 to close at nominal loss) Patterns: Symmetrical has worked it’s way past three quarters completion and is no longer valid (just like descending triangle) | Potential h&s on 4h Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,319 | R: $6,332 - $6,339 BTCUSDSHORTS: Almost back down at support levels. Makes me think that this is the most pressure we have seen from leveraged longs all year and the price has gone nowhere. Consider this a bearish divergence since shorts pulling back this hard/fast usually equates in a price increase. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% | A chart showing funding rates would be very interesting, anyone know where I could find one? Short term trend (3 day MA): Today’s candle closed below | bearish Medium term trend (8 day MA): Close below but still has bullish cross with 3 MA = neutral Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Bearish | If/when 8 makes bearish cross with 3 then all with be in alignment. Overall trend: Bear Volume: This weeks candle has more volume than last weeks. So we have that going for us, which is nice. FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | 0.382 held at $6,378 Candlestick analysis: Price broke down below yesterday’s shooting star, confirming the entry outlined in Day 244 Ichimoku Cloud: Fell out of 4h cloud and it is showing massive resistance overhead TD’ Sequential: 4h r9 Visible Range: Testing highest liquidity zone from the last year. Being below the point of control (POC) should lead to strong resistance above. 4h cloud agrees. Price action: 24h: -0.28% | 2w: -1.24% | 1m: -2.08% Bollinger Bands: Should test bottom band after finding strong resistance from MA Trendline: bear: $6,448 | bull: $6,227 Daily Trend: chop Fractals: Two down at $6,313 | Up: $6,447 RSI: Has cooled off on shorter TF’s. If we are going to get another rally (if you consider a 1% move a rally) then it should come soon. Stochastic: Incoming 4h buy signal agrees with RSI assessment Summary: Right now is a time to keenly watch the charts, even though it might not seem that way at first glance. We got a daily close below the 3 and 8 MA’s and at the same time we confirmed the shooting star that was pointed out in yesterday’s post. If the 3 MA crosses below the 8 MA then we will be in a fully bearish setup. According to Tyler Jenk’s Consensio theory the price cannot trend until all moving averages are in agreeance (Consensio is Latin for agreement). As long as they are jumbled up, like they are now, then further sideways action is to be expected. However, we are only one crossover away from the trends all being in agreeance and that is something to pay very close attention to. Being in a fully bearish setup does not necessarily mean the price will trend down, it simply means that the price is ready to trend down. The chart doesn't look ready for that crossover quite yet. The 4h is on a red 9 and a 1-4 candle correction is expected to follow. After 4 - 16 hours the expected correction should be complete and we will be primed to get the final crossover when tomorrow's daily candle closes.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 243)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position then opening a short at $6,300 - $6,315 provides favorable risk:reward. A stop loss slightly above $6,400 makes a long of sense” / Short USDT:USD from 0.0968 (order set at 0.97 to exit at a nominal loss) | Short ETH:USD from $197.81 & Short ADA:BTC from 0.00001129 Patterns: Symmetrical triangle with $5,492 target if it breaks to the downside and $7,101 target if it breaks to the upside Horizontal support and resistance: Prior support is expected to become resistance from $6,345 - $6,385 | S: $6,300 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard, will it find support above 28,500? | Could this be the last squeeze before the trend starts? Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% | Do not think funding has been this out of balance towards longs in all of 2018 Short term trend (3 day MA): Price above and angling up = bullish | Trying to make bullish crossover with 8 MA (signals medium term trend along with 3 week) Medium term trend (3 week MA): 3 & 8 MA’s are angling up but price is below = neutral Long term trend ( 34 Week): bear Overall trend: If 3 day crosses 8 that will make me short term bullish (although I will wait for much more confirmation before looking for a bullish entry). Definitely don’t like being against the trend with my shorts Volume: gfy FIB’s: Broke through 0.618 at $6,312 and 0.5 at $6,345 | Next up is 0.382 at $6,378 Candlestick analysis: Just took out daily shooting star. I was really hoping that the top of that wick would hold as resistance Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud is fatting up after a bearish kumo twist. Shows thick resistance from $6,340 - $6,478 unless we can breakthrough the thin cloud before | Broke through 1h cloud on this last move | Daily cloud is right above the down trend line. This has saved me before, the area between the cloud and the bear trendline indicates a potential area for a bull trap TD’ Sequential: D g1 | 4h g5 | Had a small 1 candle correction after the g9 on the hourly, now g2 > g1 Visible Range: Testing point of control for 2018. There should be a ton of built of resistance in this area Price action: 24h: +0.088% | 2w: -1.66% | 1m: -11.52% Bollinger Bands: Testing MA right now. MA is angling up which indicates that it is less likely to act as resistance Trendline: Bear trend: $6,475 | Bull trend: $6,200 Daily Trend: bull Fractals: Created new down fractal at $6,300 RSI: One hour RSI is very overbought (> 80) while we are trading at major resistance. Very strong indication of a reversal Stochastic: 4h is overbought, agrees with 1h RSI Summary: I rarely put any emphasis on the 1h hour chart. However I have the 1h & 10m RSI's to be very helpful for recognizing when we are overbought or oversold on a short term basis. After the price broke through the daily shooting star as well as the 4h shooting star from the prior candle I was very worried that we would pump right back through $6,400. Now I am feeling cautiously optimistic. Being overbought at major resistance is generally a very strong sign of a short term reversal. If you took the position that I outlined yesterday then your stop should still be safe (for now) and I don't see any reason why that should be adjusted now. If you are still on the sidelines then this could be a great opportunity to build a short and use a tight stop loss. We are at a very significant resistance cluster and this was the original area where I suggested an entry from two days ago . Setting a stop loss anywhere from $6,450 - $6,550 makes a lot of sense based on horizontal and trend resistance.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez