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Tdsequential

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 216)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “If the daily candle can close below yesterday’s then it would be a breakdown of the trendline (green) and it would also be a red 2 below a red 1. That could be a good opportunity to build a short in the $6,400 - $6,500 range.” / Short BTC:USD from $6,474 and short ETH:USD from $225.20. Patterns: Descending triangle / bear channel Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,350 | R: $6,495 BTCUSDSHORTS: Made higher low on daily and rallying. Expect ATH’ retest. ETHUSDLONGS appear to be forming a blow off top. Funding Rates: Longs pays shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -1.29% | 26: -1.58% | Failed to make bullish cross, now I expect to see some divergence. 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -2.1% | 128: -5.02% Volume: Still waiting for spike as volume continues to decrease during consolidation. FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619 Candlestick analysis: Pulling back from weekly hanging man. Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud shows strong level of support at $6,460. If we fall out of the cloud then expect that to become strong resistance. 12h cloud shows strong resistance at $6,548. TD’ Sequential: 1d is on an R3 | 12h is on a R9 | 4h is on a G1 following a R8. 1h is one a G7. Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above the point of control. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.63% | 24h: -0.99% | 1w: - | 2w: -0.4% | 1m: -11.32% Bollinger Bands: Closed below daily MA, expect at return to the bottom band at $6,282. Trendline: 3 day bear trend outlined with red lines. Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Up: $6,822 | Down: $6,320 On Balance Volume: OBV’ has broken down support and continues to trend down. ADX: Indicates upcoming volatility Chaikin Money Flow: Daily is pulling back from being slightly overbought RSI (30 setting): W: 48.82 | D: 47.08 Stoch: Trying to make bullish re cross on weekly. Summary: Closely watching bear trend that is forming on the 1h chart to see if $6,500 will turn into resistance. If it does then the down trend should continue, and we might be able to finally get out of the god forsaken range. If $6,500 does not become resistance then expect the sideways action to continue for a few more days/weeks. The 4h TD' Sequential just had a red 8 and the 12h is on a red 9. Those both indicate that we should bounce through $6,500 before continuing the move downward. I have started to re enter my short positions and will continue using very tight stops. I sold $6,474 this morning and used a $6,501 stop loss. I shorted ETH:USD yesterday afternoon at $225.2 and have moved that stop loss to break even. I am focusing on maximizing my exposure while limiting my risk. To do this I am waiting for consolidation on the 10m and 1h chart. I place my sell orders towards the top of the consolidation zone and put my stop loss right above resistance. I will continue to take these stabs in hopes to be fully positioned once the market makes it’s move. When we do break out of this range there will be very little time to get positioned and that’s why I am using a preemptive approach.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 215)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “I am setting alerts at $6,400 and $6,800 and will be focusing on traditional markets until BTC decides what it wants to do next.” / Sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,550 | S: $6,445 BTCUSDSHORTS: Starting to trend up after forming a higher low Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Both currently acting as resistance 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 is acting as resistance | 128: -4.23% Volume: Waiting for spike on 1h chart to exceed the selling climax on September 5th. FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619 Candlestick analysis: 1h forming shooting star at resistance. 4h is forming a dragonfly Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud acting as resistance at $6,550. 4h cloud acting as support at $5,450 TD’ Sequential: Daily briefly had a R2 trade below a R1 and quickly reversed. If low at $6,438 is taken out then I expect selling volume to pick up. 12h and 4h are on a R3s. Visible Range: Continue to trade in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above point of control BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.54% | 24h: -0.5% | 1w: +1.55% | 2w: +2.28% | 1m: -9.31% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA is turning into resistance Trendline: Down to $6,675. Still wouldn’t be surprised if we get a fakeout above it. Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Up: $6,822 | Down: $6,320 On Balance Volume: Bear div’ on daily vs bull div’ on weekly. ADX: Indicates upcoming trend Chaikin Money Flow: Resisted 0.05 on weekly. Bull div’ on daily. RSI: Using 14 setting today. RSI is at 47 and formed a lower high. Now its threatening to break down the triangle it was forming. Stoch: Bearish on daily and weekly. Summary: I wish I would have followed my own advice from yesterday. I watched as BTC rejected a retest of the neckline on the 4h cup and handle I have been watching for a few days and could not resist opening a short. I went with another tight stop loss and was chopped out again. These last few weeks have been very frustrating, to say the least, but I am determined to capitalize on this next move. It is going to be violent and will happen in the blink of an eye. Taking multiple ~1% losses can be made up for very quickly in this environment. That is why I continue to use tight stops and seek out entries that allow me to do so. If the daily candle can close below yesterday’s then it would be a breakdown of the trendline (green) and it would also be a red 2 below a red 1. That could be a good opportunity to build a short in the $6,400 - $6,500 range. However, be careful shorting below that. $6,100 - $6,350 is the major area of support. If that breaks down then expect a volume spike and quick move to the downside.
Short
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 214)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: Outlined three key areas of support and resistance to keep an eye on. / Sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle / h&s Horizontal support and resistance: Testing $6,495 for support | Resistance at $6,640 BTCUSDSHORTS: Appear to have created a higher low Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Failed to make bullish crossover, now price is back below each by about 0.1% 50 & 128 MA’s: Back below 50 MA, closing below would be very significant | 128: -3.99% Volume: Still waiting for volume spike. Have been paying close to ETH’ which recently had two weeks with record high buying volume and last week supported record high sell volume. FIB’s: 0.382: $6,933 | 0.5: $6,776 | 0.618: $6,619 Candlestick analysis: Dojis at $6,600 indicates waning momentum from the bulls. Ichimoku Cloud: The cloud has been all over the place these last couple days. I have checked it on different exchanges to confirm there wasn’t a glitch. Now the daily cloud is back at $6,800 - $6,900. We have re entered 12h cloud which is very thick. 4h escaped the cloud yesterday, but just had bearish TK’ cross. Showing strong support at $6,450. TD’ Sequential: Bouncing off 1h R9. 4h R4. 12h price flip. Daily price flipping. Weekly trying to make bullish price flip. Visible Range: Remain in highest liquidity zone over the past year and above the point of control. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.87% | 24h: -0.27% | 1w: -0.25% (what an exciting week) | 2w: +3.69% | 1m: -6.42% Bollinger Bands: Briefly fell below MA on daily band, watching for a close below that area. Finding resistance from weekly MA which is right in line with top of descending triangle. Tightest weekly bands have been since Nov 2016. Trendline: Connect September 8 to September 17th (ice line for h&s). Connect September 19th to September 25th & connect top of September 22nd to Oct 1st (creates triangle inside descending triangle). Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Up: $6,822 | Down: $6,320 On Balance Volume: Still showing a bull div’ on weekly, however it is resolving itself. Failed to turn resistance into support and broke down trendline. Now we will see if it can create a higher low. ADX: ADX is at support Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily. RSI (30 setting): D: $8.31 | W: 49.03 Stoch: Looks like weekly rejected bullish recross. Daily made bearish re cross. Summary: In yesterday’s post I pointed out a head and shoulders pattern on the 4h chart. Last candle broke down the neck line and closed below. The current candle is retesting the neck line for resistance. Normally that would be a very good spot to enter, however I have already been chopped out twice in this range and I intend to wait for further confirmation. In today’s chart I have drawn a head and shoulders on the daily chart and provided a new neckline to watch out for. If we reject the retest on the 4h chart and then go on to confirm the same pattern on the daily chart then it could be a good time to start building a position. The best fit lines for the past 6 months could be drawn by using curved lines instead of a linear descending triangle. When looking at it from that view the current weekly candle is in the crosshairs, which indicates that a decisive move should be made sometime this week. I am setting alerts at $6,400 and $6,800 and will be focusing on traditional markets until BTC decides what it wants to do next. It can drive a person crazy watching short time frame charts while we are getting chopped around like this and I think it is a much better idea to focus time/energy on something else. Once my price alerts trigger I will drop everything and go back to watching the hourly chart like a hawk to look for an entry.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 208)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: “The current pullback should bring us to $6,444 - $6,550 and what happens from there will be extremely important. If the bounce creates a lower high below $6,835 then it will be a tremendous shorting opportunity.” / sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,365 - $6,385 | Weak R: $6,440 - $6,463 | Strong R: $6,550 & $6,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Trying to bounce from 27,136. Trendline waiting at 25,135. Daily cloud shows strong resistance at 28,600 Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -1.75% | 26: -2.13% both are acting as resistance 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -2.13% and acting as resistance | 128: -6.82% Volume: More volume from yesterday’s sell off then the rally from $6,400 - $6,800. Indicates that supply is stronger than demand at these prices. FIB’s: 0.886: $6,254 | 0.786: $6,384 | 0.618: $6,603 Candlestick analysis: Bullish wick on current 1h candle indicates good support. Weekly candle is re exploring last weeks wick. Ichimoku Cloud: Bottom of 4h cloud is at $6,332. Flat top at $6,749 indicates strong resistance | Flat bottom on 1h cloud at $6,466 should be strong resistance TD’ Sequential: 1w: R2 = R1 | 1d: R1 | 12h: R6 | 4h: R4 | 1h: G4 Visible Range: Locked inside highest liquidity zone over the past year. Once this range is broken the next move will be violent. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: -0.6% | 24h: -2.66% | 1w: +1.42% | 2w: +1.98% | 1m: -3.98% Bollinger Bands: Broke down MA, will it close below? If it does then expect the bottom band to be retested at $6,134. Tightest BB Width has been since the consolidation leading into the Bitcoin Cash' hardfork in April of 2017. Trendline: Have drawn a new triangle inside the larger descending triangle. The bottom trendline is at $6,246 and represents a crucial area of support. Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: New up at $6,833 | Down at $6,118 On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly. ADX: ADX is at support which indicates upcoming trend Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily. RSI (30 setting): W: 48.71 | D: 46.4 | Firmly believe that we need to return to ~30 before bear market ends. Stochastic: Sell signal on daily followed by divergence, indicates that it was not a fake out and that we should return to oversold levels before rallying again. Summary: Now is the time to pay very close attention. We created yet another lower high on 9/21 and have fully retraced that rally. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post what happens from here will be very important. There is still room for one more bounce that could take us back to $6,550. If that happens then I think it will be the best shorting opportunity in months. However, there would still be a possibility that the price rallied through that area to retest the top of the descending triangle one last time at $6,800. If we fail to bounce from here then I have outlined four entries below: Sell 4h cloud breakdown Sell weekly R2 if/when it falls below last weeks R1 Sell green triangle breakdown Sell yellow triangle breakdown If I take those entries then I will likely enter 25% of my position at each checkpoint.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
[ANT/BTC] ARAGON COULD BREAK HIGHER SOON [ 100-400% PROFIT]#ANT / BTC ( Bittrex ) Buy Range : 0.000126-135 Stop Loss : Below 12450 ( Optional ) Target 1 : 22100 Target 2 : 31393 Target 3 : 54438 WEEKLY CHART : - Stoch RSI is pointing up and its pretty clear is going to be launched ( Positive ) - TD sequential ending on a 9 which could suggest a good point to reverse ( Positive ) - SAR remeains negative, but i think its going to reverse in the next two weeks ( Positive ) - RSI touched oversold zone and now its looking to recver ( Positive ) - MACD is lossing negative momment and probably its going to turn to positive territory ( Neutral ) - Downtrend clearly broken ( Positive ) DAILY CHART : - CCI turned to green after long red way ( Positive ) - We can observe reversal candle and nice volume action ( Positive ) - downtrend has been broken and new upside pattern started ( Positive ) - MACD performance is very good ( Positive ) - Candles supported by EMA20 correctly ( Positive ) 4 HOUR CHART : - RSI near to be overbought. It could extend mommentum but there are chances to make some correction before continue climbing ( Neutral ) - Reversal Candle spotted and good action after it ( Positive ) - Nice volume action which indicates buying pressure for bull reversal ( Positive ) - Ichi cloud broken and candles staying above it ( Positive ) - Candle supported by moving averages ( Positive ) CONCLUSION : Market is looking very good on the last days. Volumes is backing to the game which is a very good thing and it could boost many coins. Aragon against BTC is retesting the December lows which is the logical place to buy for Long-Term. Weekly chart started to looks really good and interesant. I think its clear this could be the best point to make a good investiment and wait for very nice returns. Good luck
Long
by MikeCryptoSignals
BTCUSD WEEKLY ANALYSISIn the weekly BTCUSD chart we have a huge descending triangle that is near to its disclosure. According to the technical analysis of the chart, if the outcome is typical, the price should reach a value around 3k dol. This price corresponds, coincidentally, with a very strong resistance point, which will probably become support. This price of 3k dol, would most likely lead to the RSI value to enter oversold terrain. The BTC only entered this field in January 2015 and recovered from there. There is the possibility of an intermediate bounce around 5k dol considering that there is a fibonacci line, as well as a relevant resistance point at 4975 dol, as well as the RSI will be oversold on the daily chart.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by alexandrejosesimoes
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 202)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “The market is showing significant signs of a top with the 12h red 9, daily dojis at resistance and today’s candle creating a lower low than September 14th.” / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short ETH:USD from $211.96 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326 Patterns: Descending triangle. Horizontal support and resistance: 0.886 FIB being tested for support at $6,248 | 0.786 FIB should become ressitance at $6,377 BTCUSDSHORTS: Just broke out of bull flag. 54,125 is the target. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0079% (first time longs have paid in a week+) 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -2.89% | 28 = -4.61% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -6.42% | 128 = -10.17% Volume: Large volume seems to be following this current sell off. FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,377 | 0.886 = $6,248 | 1.618 = $5,330 Candlestick analysis: Bearish extended range candle has confirmed hanging man. Have already retraced 80% of last weeks candle. Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish. 4h cloud has been very helpful over past couple weeks. TD’ Sequential: 1h is on a red 6 which indicates 3 more hours to the downside before consolidating or bouncing. Price flip on the daily. Red 3 on the 4h and currently testing TDST for suppoert at $6,250 Visible Range: Point of control/high volume node at $6,300. That should turn into strong resistance. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -4% | 24h = -3.41% | 1w = -0.63% | 2w = -14.93% | 1m = -0.87% Bollinger Bands: Failed to return to MA after bouncing from bottom band. MA starting to angle downward on daily and weekly. Trendline: Top of descending triangle Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Up = $6,578 | Down = $6,115 On Balance Volume: Turning over with price / no div’s ADX: Indicates no trend Chaikin Money Flow: Created new low on daily for bear div'. RSI (30 setting): W = 48.33 | D = 43.87 Stoch: Made bearish re cross on the daily Summary: We have been expecting some volatility for a while and it is starting to feel like this will be the week. This bounce did not take us as high as expected which indicates that the buyers are getting exhausted and the supply remains consistent. I can see the short sellers exploding to over 50,000 while the price breaks down $5,000. If that happens then the fear should start to set in and the volatility should pick up significantly. I firmly believe that we need capitulation in order to end this bear market and that is how I expect it to happen. If you are not in a position then now is not a good time to enter. There was plenty of time to build short positions over the last couple days. If you passed on that opportunity and want to short now then you ought to seriously reconsider your approach. The trendline on ETH’ provided a great risk:reward which is no longer attainable. Keep an eye on the 1h hour TD’ Sequential if you are dying to make an entry today. It should get a 1-4 hour bounce after a red 9 and that would be the time to sell. A retest of $6,350 on BTC’ and $212 on ETH’ would provide attractive entries. EOS:BTC appears to be breaking down and that could provide a great entry as well. I have an order set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474. Click here to read that analysis.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
5
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 201)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “This is where the risk:reward is what you should be thinking about. If it breaks through the trendline then exit the position. However if it gets rejected then it should sell off hard and fast.” (referring to ETH) / Short ETH:BTC from 0.03143 | Short ETH:USD from $211.96 | Short EOS:ETH from 0.0252326 Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S =$6,443 - $6,459 | R = $6,494 - $6,514 BTCUSDSHORTS: Still fitting into a bull flag. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0028% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Unable to support above 12 EMA, now it is acting as resistance. 26 = -1.87% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -3.85% (angling down sharply which indicates it will be strong resistance) | 128 = -7.29% Volume: Price continues rising on low volume FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,637 | 0.786 = $6,414 Candlestick analysis: Daily hanging man forming. Watching weekly candle to see if it can retrace > /= 50% of last weeks candle. Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud continues to act as resistance. Thick cloud with flat top indicates strong resistance from $6,523 - $6,778 TD’ Sequential: 12h on green 9 at horizontal resistance after a hanging man. Daily green 5. Weekly Red 2 never got below Red 1. Visible Range: Looking back to February when we have continued to test this price makes the most sense and it shows the point of control at $6,514 and a high volume node up to $6,724 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = - | 24h = -0.55% | 1w = +3.76% | 2w = -10.7% | 1m = +2.43% Expected to test MA at $6,725 after bouncing from bottom band Trendline: Top of descending triangle = $6,925 Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Up = $7,475 | Down = $6,065 On Balance Volume: Starting to move downward. If it creates a lower low that would be a bear div’ on the daily. ADX: Indicates no trend Chaikin Money Flow: Starting to turn over on the daily. RSI (30 setting): W = 48.98 | D = 46.5 Stoch: %K testing %D on the daily Summary: The market is showing significant signs of a top with the 12h red 9, daily dojis at resistance and today’s candle creating a lower low than September 14th. The BTCUSDSHORTS’ are posturing to breakthrough the all time highs similar to what ETHUSDSHORTS did last week. Continuing with the common theme I will be watching BTC’ and trading ETH’. As mentioned above and in yesterday’s post ETH:USD and ETH:BTC are testing the 6 week bear trend line. That represents a good risk:reward opportunity for short sellers. If the trendline is broken then you can exit at a small loss. However if it hold then swing targets are $104.69 and 0.022 respectively. EOS:ETH and EOS:BTC are both still at the top of my most overvalued coins in crypto. I was paying close attention to the ETH’ pair last night to see if it would break 0.0253 and I recommended that as an area to reduce position size or close out entirely. As it stands we found resistance at 0.0251 and the push back is forming a bearish wick/shooting star. Order remains set to short EOS:BTC at 0.0007474. Click here to read my analysis on EOS’.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 198)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down...If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks.” / Closed ETH:USD shorts due to high volume dragonfly doji from yesterday’s close. Using 5:1 leverage that position returned +147.85% in 12 days. Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: R: $6,525 & $6,777 | S: Will it turn $6,425 into support?? BTCUSDSHORTS: Will it create a lower high or higher low? | Most of the shorts are on Bitfinex and most of the longs are on Bitmex. Since Bitfinex only allows 3.33X leverage I think the longs are in more danger of getting squeezed/liquidated. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.007% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Current candle is retesting 12 EMA for resistance. 26 = -2.26% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -5.15% | 128 = -7.95% Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to define the next move. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,610 | 0.5 = $6,767 Candlestick analysis: Currently forming bullish extended range candle. Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen = $6,772 TD’ Sequential: G2 > G1 is providing entry, however I would stay away due to trading against the trend and unfavorable risk:reward ratio. 4h is currently on a 7 and indicates a correction in about 10 hours. Visible Range: High volume node at $6,511 with 2 month lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.86% | 24h = +3.58% | 1w = +/- 0 | 2w = -7.44% | 1m = +3.16% Bollinger Bands: A return to the MA at $6,743 is to be expected after bouncing from the bottom band Trendline: Top end of descending triangle will waiting around $7,000 Daily Trend: Bullish Fractals: Up = $7,475 | Down = $6,065 On Balance Volume: Moving up with price / no div’s ADX: Bear trend with -DI and +DI converging. Chaikin Money Flow: Turning over and potentially creating a bear div’ RSI (30 setting): W = 49.03 | D = 46.72 Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly with buy signal on daily Summary: This is the bounce that I have been waiting/hoping for. After closing out the rest of my shorts I am ready to re open at a better price. Now it is very important to remain patient and not enter too early. According to the TD’ Sequential this bounce still has 7 days left. However, I am not sure if we will get to a 9 on this rally due to the following resistance cluster that is waiting from $6,743 - $6,887: Daily Tenken-sen = $6,772 0.5 FIB = $6,767 (also 50% point of extended range weekly candle) 50 Day MA: $6,836 and angling downward Gap in the volume profile. Low volume node at $6,800 could place the resistance as high as $6,887 Bollinger Band MA = $6,743 I will continue with my approach of watching BTC’ and trading ETH. ETH looks like it should bounce to $240 - $250 before continuing it’s downtrend. That area provided significant support in the past and should turn into significant resistance moving forward. I am also planning on opening large shorts on EOS:BTC and EOS:ETH based on this analysis.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Sawcruhteez
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 197)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “BTC’ looks like it has found support and should bounce to the $6,750 area before continuing the downtrend. However, alts are currently breaking down and there is a good chance that they drag BTC’ down with them.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,150 - $6,180 | R: $6,290 BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be pulling back and forming a lower high. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% (first time in a while it hasn’t been shorts paying longs) 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -3.87% | 26 = -5.85% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -8.96% | 128 = -11.55% Volume: Still waiting for volume spike to set off the next move FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,137 | 0.786 = $6,383 Candlestick analysis: Inverted hammer then a doji now a hammer is forming. Indicates indecision and upcoming volatility Ichimoku Cloud: 4h C-Clamp TD’ Sequential: Current candle will price flip if it closes > $6,181. Red 9 on the 4 hour. Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = +/- 0 | 1w = -6.52% | 2w = -10.34% | 1m = -0.63% Bollinger Bands: After testing the bottom band a return to the MA at $6,739 is to be expected Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866 On Balance Volume: Moving down with price / no div’s ADX: Bear trend Chaikin Money Flow: Pulling back from resistance RSI (30 setting): W = 48.53 | D = 43.88 Stoch: Bearish re cross on weekly. Buy signal on daily. Summary: There is nothing to do at this point other than to wait. Ideally we will get a sharp spike to $6,700 before breaking down. A shakeout before the breakdown would speed up the process and allow for some very good short entries. If that doesn’t happen then we will likely continue to consolidate for days - weeks. Prolonged sideways action can drive traders up a wall and/or put us to sleep. Do not let that happen to you. Set price alerts and regularly check in on the charts. If we get a bounce then be ready to short it. If we continue to consolidate then develop a plan for what you will do if we do not get a bounce. My suggestion is to key an eye on EOS . I am going to be shorting it against BTC' and ETH in the coming days/weeks.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 196)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “It still feels' too early to breakdown $6,150 support. I feel like we need to range for another couple days or bounce up to the 12 EMA.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH. Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,151 | R: Is $6,250 support becoming resistance? BTCUSDSHORTS: Found support at 35,668 and is bouncing off a dragonfly Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0203% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -4.72% | 26 = -6.58% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.87% | 128 = -12.19% Volume: Still below MA but it is very early in the day, expect this candle to have high volume FIB’s: 0.886 = $6,137 | 0.786 = $6,383 Candlestick analysis: Long wicks on daily candles indicate indecision and upcoming volatility. Current daily candle will be bearish engulfing if it closes < $6,237 Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan = $6,765 | C clamp on 4h TD’ Sequential: 12h & 4h recently had R2 < R1. Daily on R7 Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -1.9% | 24h = -1.11% | 1w = -15.56% | 2w = -11.47% | 1m = +1.54% Bollinger Bands: Bouncing from bottom band. Retesting MA at $6,768 is to be expected. Trendline: N/A Daily Trend: Chop that seems to be favoring bears Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866 On Balance Volume: Can see a small bull div’ when looking back to the middle of august. OBV’ has higher low and price has double bottom. ADX: Bear trend Chaikin Money Flow: Shows same div’ as OBV’ RSI (30 setting): W = 48.44 | D = 43.48 Stoch: Buy signal right now. Notice how the last time we got a daily buy signal the price proceeded to make a fakeout lower low before finding support and rallying. Summary: BTC’ looks like it has found support and should bounce to the $6,750 area before continuing the downtrend. However, alts are currently breaking down and there is a good chance that they drag BTC’ down with them. I watch ETH’ as my leading indicator for alts and it has broken down $200, testing it for resistance and continued to break down from there. At the time of this writing it just broke down $180 and 0.029. Over the next few days I believe the play is shorting EOS:ETH. For TA on EOS please see: The Most Overvalued Coin in Crypto: EOS .
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
Weekly 9 Looking Over ExtendedI remain very bullish for the NASDAQ100, and expect to see continuation to the upside for the remainder of the year (or at least until next earnings season). However, we are currently on green weekly 9 which usually leads to a 1-4 candle correction. You can see that we have reached the upper Bollinger band, and the last time we did this on a weekly 9 was in June 2018. If you look back to that time, we had a sharp pullback of around 4% over the course of 2 weeks following the green weekly 9. I am anticipating a similar scenario over the next few weeks, which could provide an ideal buying opportunity. Shorting at this point could be profitable. But considering the strong uptrend we are currently in, the risk to reward is simply too high for me to attempt this trade. If you've followed my previous analysis, you saw me predict the breakout of an Ascending Triangle which is more visible on the hourly time frames. This gives you targets of around 7800, which I'm confident we will reach. It's very possible that we don't get the pullback that I'm anticipating and continue to rise up to that point. But either way, we will get some kind of correction at some point. Whenever that point is, I will become a buyer again. *** This is not financial advise, purely educational ***
TVC:NDQ
by kickflip360
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 189)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 - 5 days: < $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Slightly concerned due to btcusdshorts’ and price trading back above 50 MA. / Short ETH:USD at $285.57 & ETH:BTC at 0.04029/ Had order set to add to short at $283.24 that got filled at $264.46. Have never had that type of slippage before it is ruined my average cost basis for my ETH:USD position. Patterns: Rising wedge inside descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,350 | R = $7,386 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back off hanging man, are we getting another squeeze or does it simply need to retest short term EMA? Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +4.55% | 26 = +6.57% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +4.3% | 128 = +1.29% | 200 MA is tracking along trendline/descending triangle Volume: Volume continuing to fall as price rallies FIB’s: 0.5 = $7,174 | 0.382 = $7,418 | 0.236 = $7,752 Candlestick analysis: Just took out hanging man Ichimoku Cloud: Currently trying to re enter daily cloud. Flat top at $7,867 should be strong resistance / good spot for stop. 4h cloud is fully bullish. TD’ Sequential: G4 on daily. G8 on 2d. G6 on 3d. Visible Range: High volume nodes from $6,350 to $8,500. Top of volume area on 1m and 3m' lookbacks. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +1.39% | 24h = +1.18% | 1w = +4.23% | 2w = +15.05% | 1m = -1.23% Bollinger Bands: Hugging top band on daily. Trendline: Connect 8/22 to 8/30 Daily Trend: bullish Fractals: DOWN = $6,808 | UP = $8,285 On Balance Volume: Small bear div’ on daily. Small bull div’ on weekly. ADX: ADX broke through 20 while +DI diverges from -DI in bullish manner. Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily, however it is approaching major resistance / overbought zones. Bear div’ on weekly. RSI (30 setting): W = 50.6 | D = 54.79 Stoch: Overbought on 1d and 2d, plenty of room to go on 3d and 1w. Summary: Do not let the market lull you to sleep in the calm before the storm. As we continue to rally on decreasing volume we are approaching major levels of resistance from: VRVP, top end of descending triangle, 200 MA, and top of Bollinger Band. Furthermore we are on a green 8 on the 2 day chart after re setting the sell setup on the 1 day. There are many reasons to believe that this rally is becoming exhausted and there are not many reasons that I can see which point towards breaking the descending triangle to the upside. When taking a look at the Bitcoin' Volatility Index it seems very likely that we are in for a major move one way or the other. I firmly believe that it will be a correction to the downside and that is a major reason why I have been calling for < $6,000 over the last couple weeks. The calm before the storm is often the best time to build a position. Selling the current area of resistance provides a great risk:reward. Shorting alts is a better option as they continue to show more signs of weakness than BTC’.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 186)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 - 3 days: < $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: “Am waiting patiently to see if we get one last squeeze to $7,200 which would put us at a major resistance cluster. If that happens then I would expect it to occur in the next 12-24 hours.” / Sidelines, getting orders set to sell breakdown and waiting for final confirmation to start entering. Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,025 | R = $7,060 & $7,093 BTCUSDSHORTS: Getting first sign of a reversal (daily hammer forming). On a red 8. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +2.82% | 26 = +3.91% 50 & 128 MA’s: Price back on top of 50 MA and testing for support | 128 = -3.51% Volume: Price goes up, volume goes down. Indicates demand becoming exhausted. FIB’s: 0.5 = 0.618 = $6,804 | $7.092 | 0.382 = $7,380 Candlestick analysis: Doji/spinning top following two hanging men Ichimoku Cloud: 1d, 12h & 6h cloud acting as strong resistance. TD’ Sequential: Red 1 Visible Range: 1 month lookback has high volume node at $7,070. The developing volume area (VA) is like a volume weighted bollinger band. We are hugging the top band on the following periods: 1d, 5d, 1m, 3m' BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +0.57% | 24h = +1.2% | 1w = +4.75% | 2w = +8.01% | 1m = -8.94% Bollinger Bands: Pulling back from top band, expect it to retest MA at $6,600 Trendline: Connect Aug 22nd to Aug 26th. Yesterday’s violation could be a simple fakeout. Daily Trend: Bullish/choppy Fractals: UP at $7,117 could mark the top of this rally. DOWN = $6,222 On Balance Volume: Bull div’ on weekly ADX: ADX appears to have found a bottom. Surprised to see -DI and +DI diverging in a bullish manner. Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div’ on daily shouldn’t last long based on how hard/fast weekly is turning over RSI (30 setting): W = 50.02 | D = 51.82 Stoch: Trying to re cross > 80 on daily. 3d still has plenty of room to go. Summary: Believe that this weekend will be the best opportunity to re open shorts. Time to zoom in a little bit for more precise entries. If the price breaks down $7,000 then it should form a double top from the past week and another lower high for 2018. 4h chart is showing hanging men and shooting stars at resistance while the stoch flashes a sell signal. ETH:USD has remained inside the descending triangle (1h - 4h) / bear flag (1d) and is threatening to breakdown below a bearish cloud on the 4h chart. That could provide a low risk/high reward entry with opportunities to add upon triangle breakdown and breakdown of $267 support (green line). ETH:BTC looks ready to breakdown 0.04. Last time that happened (Dec 2017) it feel straight to 0.025 in 4 days. I have an order set to open a short at 0.03948. If it continues to bounce to 0.042 then I will start entering due to resistance cluster from: trendline, TDST, established horizontal resistance, daily BB MA.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
7
JD.com, will the past repeat itself. I believe $JD is good for a bounce here with a target up to near the 50 week MA(blue). As you can see in the chart, JD has had a head & shoulders neckline break very similar to one in the past. In both instances the 7, 8, and 9 candles are trending upward. Presently, this week's candle is right on the 200 week MA (yellow). Using TD_sequential, we should see a 1-4 candle correction. I think we see this correction begin next week. As of today it looks as if a diamond bottom is forming on the daily. Also, today had a bullish cross of the macd on the daily. I am long 31.98 average.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by richaz09
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 185)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Preparing to enter short, lined out four confirmations for entering / sidelines Patterns: descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: $6,940 support appears to be breaking down and turning into resistance. Next support = $6,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Has almost fully retraced while the price of Bitcoin’ has barely budged. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): +0.67% | bullish crossover did not amount to anything 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 MA = -1% & back on top of price | 128 = -5.56% Volume: Has not exceeded MA throughout this squeeze. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,895 | 0.786 = $6,509 Candlestick analysis: 2 hanging men Ichimoku Cloud: Daily and 12h cloud held as resistance. 12h cloud breakdown could provide an entry. TD’ Sequential: G9 < G6, G7, & G8. If > then would be perfected. When 9 is lower than 7 then it will often lead to a new countdown to the upside. Visible Range: Low volume node at $7,200 tells seems like a good spot for one last short squeeze. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -1% | 24h = +0.87% | 1w = +3.53% | 2w = +8.26% | 1m = -15.45% Bollinger Bands: Weekly MA = $7,379 and should be strong resistance | Daily MA = $6,589 and is expected to get retested after pulling back from top band. Trendline: Connected August 22nd to August 26th and it was violated yesterday Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: DOWN = $6,212 | UP = $8,312 On Balance Volume: Weekly just created a higher high for a bull div’ ADX: ADX is at a major level of support which indicates that major volatility is on the horizon Chaikin Money Flow: Will it get rejected at 0.05 or provide a buy signal? RSI (30 setting): W = 49.73 | D = 50.30 | weekly crossing + CMF' breaking through 0.05 would be significant Stoch: Pulling back on daily, plenty of room to go on 3d Summary: Am waiting patiently to see if we get one last squeeze to $7,200 which would put us at a major resistance cluster. If that happens then I would expect it to occur in the next 12-24 hours. CBOE' options will get covered today and after that demand is satisfied I expect a breakdown to follow. If the price of Bitcoin’ is > $6,000 on Tuesday then I will be very surprised. As I am writing this ETH:BTC appears to be breaking down 0.04. Take a look at how hard it fell in December 2017 when it last broke down that support. ETH:USD is also on the verge of breaking down it's bear flag with a $115 target. My sights are set on opening large shorts on each. “Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes” -Col William Prescott
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 184)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: “Due to green 7 on TD' Sequential I am expecting two more days to the upside and will be crossing my fingers for a 9 at resistance combined with a reversal candle to provide a perfected entry.” / sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: R: $7,150 | S: $6,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Have pulled back 32% while price only bounced while price is only +1.1% since short squeeze. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0116% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = + 1.18% | If price breaks down EMA’s it would be a good confirmation to enter a short. 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -2.20% | 128 = -7.05% | breaking down 50 MA is very bearish Volume: Still significantly lower than average. Watch for it to pick up drastically if/when we break down $6,800. FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,895 | 0.786 = $6,509 Candlestick analysis: Hanging man + tweezer top confirmed Ichimoku Cloud: Held as resistance, back in fully bearish territory. Unresolved c clamp on weekly. TD’ Sequential: Daily G8 Visible Range: $6,368 remains the crucial area of support as it is the point of control over the last 6 months. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -2.84% | 24h = -3.56% | 1w = +4.76% | 2w = +4.86% | 1m = -16.62% Bollinger Bands: Expected to retest Daily MA at $6,532 after pulling back from the top band. Trendline: Connects Aug 22nd - Aug 26th and is currently being violated Daily Trend: Bearish Fractals: Down = $6,230 | UP = $8,314 On Balance Volume: No div’ ADX: ADX found support at 15, indicating that we have ranged for long enough and should start to trend again soon. -DI and +DI converging, expect them to cross in the next week. Chaikin Money Flow: This thing has been all over the place and I have not found it useful at all over the past couple weeks. Bull div’ then bear div’ now bull div’ on daily. Massive bull div’ on weekly has become a very significant bear div’. RSI (30 setting): W = 49.6 | D = 49.67 Stoch: Sell signal on daily. 3d shows plenty of room left. Summary: Looks like we are just going to miss the perfected entry that I was hoping for yesterday. Instead we got a hanging man + a tweezer top which provided a low risk entry yesterday. Unfortunately I was on the golf course and unable to sell once the current candle traded below yesterday’s HM. Now I am thinking today will be a great time to open a short and tomorrow/this weekend will be the time to add to it (if and only if it is moving in our favor). I will be watching for the following and entering my position in quarters following each confirmation: Bounce from $6,800 support creates lower high below $7,128 or a double top. Breaking down $6,670 would make for a very bearish weekly candle and would firmly put us back below $6,800 resistance. Breaking down $6,368 puts us back below the point of control on the visible range volume profile when looking back 6 months. Taking out 2 week lows at $6,179 would provide the final confirmation. I will be watching Bitcoin’ for confirmation to enter and then I will be shorting ETH. When/if it breaks down $260 I am expecting it to get ugly. As is stands right now I would be placing stops right above yesterday’s high.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 183)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day - 3 day: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 3d - 1 week: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: Seeing signs of a reversal and very unimpressed with volume on breakout. However decided to hold off on re opening shorts due to green 6 on the TD’ Sequential / sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,000 - $7,050 | R = $7,125 BTCUSDSHORTS: Currently testing 30,000 for support (was resistance). If it finds support here we could be looking at a Bulkowski Big W. Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 & 26 = +4.92% and making bullish cross 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +1.65% | 128 = -3.91% Volume: Very unconvincing. Remains below MA on daily and that is a strong indication to me that this is only a temporary squeeze. FIB’s: 0.5 = $7,161 | 0.382 = $7,462 Candlestick analysis: Tweezer top/bearish spinning top forming on daily. Ichimoku Cloud: As expected the cloud and Kijun-Sen are acting as resistance. TD’ Sequential: Green 7 indicates two days left to the upside. Visible Range: Low volume node from $7,100 - $7,300 with 3 month look back. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -0.35% | 24h = -0.4% | 1w = +10.63% | 2w = +12.06% | 1m = -14.56% Bollinger Bands: Last two daily candles closed outside BB. Feels very similar to July 19th. Trendline: Descending triangle. Could also connect August 22 - August 26 Daily Trend: choppy Fractals: DOWN = $6,210 | UP = $8,321 On Balance Volume: Following price, no div’ ADX: ADX finding support at 15? Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div’ on weekly. Pulling back on daily and about ready to create a bear div’ as well. RSI (30 setting): W = 50.02 | D = 51.78 Stoch: Overbought on daily. Plenty of room to go on 3d. Wyckoff: "Point 11 gives us our last opportunity to cover any remaining longs and our first inviting opportunity to take a short position." Summary: Feeling very confident in selling this bounce. Nothing about it makes me feel like it will be sustainable. It is a short squeeze and it is not causing FOMO buyers to pile on like it did in April. Due to green 7 on TD Sequential I am expecting two more days to the upside and will be crossing my fingers for a 9 at resistance combined with a reversal candle to provide a perfected entry. It rarely works out like that and I will be prepared to start opening shorts today if we continue to retrace much further. Will be watching for today’s candle to retrace 50% or more in relation to yesterday’s candle to indicate that this rally is exhausted. Will be sticking with the plan of shorting alts instead of BTC’.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 182)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. 1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 | 1-2 weeks: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30 Previous analysis /position: “If you are patient over the next few days/weeks then I strongly expect a favorable position to present itself. If we rally to $7,000 + then it will be a great selling opportunity.” Labeled $7,200 - $7,250 as strong resistance/ Sidelines Patterns: Descending triangle Horizontal support and resistance: S = $7,000 | R = $7,100 BTCUSDSHORTS: Brokedown horizontal and trend support. Should test for resistance at 30,400 for support Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0021% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +5.22% | 26 = +5.06% & posturing for bullish cross 50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = +1.43% (first time above since July 17th) | 128 = -4.60% Volume: Unimpressive volume on breakout (below MA) FIB’s: 0.5 = $7,161 | 0.382 = $7,462 Candlestick analysis: 4h doji just closed. Now forming a hanging man. Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud and Kijun-Sen acting as resistance at $7,200. Shows strong resistance at $7,875. 4h cloud is bullish. TD’ Sequential: Daily G6 indicates 3 days left to the upside. Price flip on weekly. Visible Range: Low volume nodes from $7,100 - $7,275 with 1 month lookback. BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +2.3% | 24h = +4.33% | 1w = +8.89% | 2w = +12.55% | 1m = -13.83% Bollinger Bands: Price has currently pierced through the top daily band. Trendline: Descending triangle Daily Trend: bullish Fractals: Just broke up fractal. Next one is $8,307 | down = $6,230 On Balance Volume: Moving up with price/no div’ ADX: Weekly is starting to turn down at 13. +DI diverging from -DI and ADX has pulled back under 20 on daily. Chaikin Money Flow: Has turned down sharply on weekly after having a bull div’ for a while. RSI (30 setting): W = 50.01 | D = 51.8 Stoch: Overbought on daily. Still plenty of room to go on 3d. Recently made bullish cross on weekly. Summary: There is significant resistance from $7,000 - $7,500 and I would not be surprised to see the price bull back from anywhere in that range. Paying close attention to daily BB and Ichimoku Cloud as well as the lack of volume on the breakout so far. The daily TD’ Sequential indicates 3 days left to the upside. Getting a perfected 9 on the sell setup at horizontal and trend resistance would be ideal. Also will be watching for a reversal candle at resistance to indicate a good time to enter. I will remain on the sidelines and be on the lookout for the lowest risk/highest reward entry that I can find. I expected this bounce to provide a great short selling opportunity and nothing has changed. I closed my ETH:USD shorts at $275 and will be happy to re open in the $300 range. I still think shorting alts is the best bet, they have been falling harder and faster that BTC' - especially over the last 1-2 months.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez