₿TC Filling Positons & Keeping a 27k By New Years TargetI am filling my positions throughout this area with stops set at $10,900, this is Bitfinex BITFINEX:BTCUSD so adjust your own markets as I do accordingly. Use proper risk management always, I set my stops and don't touch them once price action begins , if the stop hits and then rebounds I don't FOMO, I simply relax and look for my next entry.
4 hour BITFINEX:BTCUSD
If the Daily closes below 11,125 I expect a test of 10k, BITFINEX:BTCUSD if we break that then hard fall to the Ichimoku cloud (Senkou) top. We did cross the Kijun-sen (Base Line in pink) so I do expect some quick dips creating some nice bid positions in the bottom of my range.
I am not adjusting my year end target for $27,000, if we break down below 11k again and close on the daily then I will take a look at readjusting my target.
Since parabolic trends seem to have suddenly been discovered by some new day traders here is our accurate trend for perspective. Big range there, support could be adjusted to reflect the last rise but I never updated it because a correction was badly needed.
I posted this on twitter but not TradingView when I saw the drop coming:
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These are extremely dangerous conditions if you do not know what you are doing with leverage, I highly recommend to stay away from leverage if you have under a year of day trading experience. Even then I am using low leverage due to higher volatility, don't get greedy and enjoy the ride whichever direction we break, look how far we have come, I have a pinned tweet showing a video of price action from 2012, my message with it still applies. I am not stressed, quite the opposite. Corrections are good, and truthfully..... this is nothing, ₿itcoin has seen way worse .
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Playing this song below on repeat for awhile ;)
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Tdsequential
XLMUSD, (up?), down then upXLMUSD is at the end of a TD sell setup with decreasing momentum.
That, coupled with no growth on the ichi indicators and the 1D stoch rsi reaching overbought (and D/K crossing) signal there's a room for a short (1D?) up and then down for ~3 days. After consolidation (probably around .5 fib) the up trend can continue with new momentum.
LTC/BTC Looks Ready To Moon Right Now BUT....LTC BITFINEX:LTCUSD is looking like a breakout is coming BUT we need another leg down to complete the D-E within the triangle. This analysis is marked Long because I simply see this as a buy setup.
Hourly LTC BITFINEX:LTCUSD
RSI matches our A-D so far throughout the triangle on all time frames which is one of the biggest mistakes traders miscalculate when thinking a A-E is forming. This leads me to believe we need this last leg down.
We have had some heavy sell pressure on the ₿TC pair directly above our current range as seen with the volume profile on the right, overall sell pressure has been dominant on top of the triangle but will tire out with one last completion of the wave for a strong sturdy rally out of it. All of this is dependent on ₿TC's pair dominance in the market as with all alt coins , but our larger caps are starting to see separation the last 30 days from BTC's dominance. (See XMR and ETH also)
I expect an almost perfect Tom Demark hourly 1-9 on this D-E as shown in the last B-C creating a perfect buy setup as long as our RSI and volume indicators such as the ADX and OBV match the current levels we are seeing on all time frames, below is the hourly ADX (yellow) and OBV (blue).
Always use stop losses even on non-margin trades, in this case it would be set directly below the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) bottom. (Leading Span 2) Again, keep an eye on BTC's dominance, BITFINEX:BTCUSD I recommend adding a BTC overlay on your LTC BITFINEX:LTCUSD chart to watch for pair divergences when entering this trade.
₿itcoin Cool Down and Bull TrendSeeing some small divergences on the OBV, MACD, and RSI the last push on the Bitstamp BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and Bitfinex BITFINEX:BTCUSD 15 minute. TD count shows a exhaustion cycle coming to an end soon on the 15 minute but exhaustion cycles have been unreliable on ₿TC lately. Hourly and and higher time frames don't show the divergence but do show that a cool down is needed to at least the two local support levels shown on the 15 minute PINK support lines. Volume is your friend to find which one we bounce on so stay glued to it when we approach them.
Bitfinex 15 minute indicators
Bitfinex Hourly
Bitfinex 4 hour
I am expecting a cool down and then a continuance upward. One thing to note is the volume levels have remained on par with the rally as far as the CMF is concerned. We are seeing heavy buying pressure still but do show a minor weakness in strength. I never under estimate ₿itcoin though. 27k by Near Years
Are we retracing back to 12k?A descending triangle is forming on the hourly charts but the volatility of the market creates some ambiguity in the readings.
Another price drop is highly likely if the bears can push down below the descending triangle with a high volume.
11-12k would provide a great buying opportunity for those who missed the previous bull run.
Personally, I use Tone Vay's altered TomDemark indicator to buy into the dip once the counter hit green 2 and trades above the high of green candle 1.
(Alternative versions of the TomDemark indicator are available on TradingView but they are slightly different from the version I have and they seem to work less effectively in my own personal experience.)
₿itcoin Appears To Be Gearing Up For Another Run BUT.....We appear to be gearing up for another run. There is some larger time frame areas to keep in mind that show some overbought areas but our lower time frames have led the way lately.
Bitfinex 15 minute indicators BITFINEX:BTCUSD
Bitstamp Hourly shows some accumulation in this level on the volume profile. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
The Daily Tom Demark Sequential for Bitstamp is quite concerning but in this market, exhaustion cycles do not matter as much.
The 4 hour Bitfinex is topped on our BB and has an exhaustion cycle that needs to complete from the mega bull. however this type market cannot be quantified with a sequential count ATM.
In my opinion, the market remains bullish, I am watching very closely for any kind of divergences I see that could turn us bearish, it is a bit dangerous to call any kind of correction or slow down, but my general market assessment is we are NOT turning bearish yet , The rally continues. I am not suggesting here as an entry or exit point because all of this last rally has not entirely made the Technical Analysis clear , I took profits along that gigantic raise as I normally do however I do remain in most of my long. If I see any kind of bearish activity I will post an update if I am available, remember to update your stop loss to the new support level . Mine is currently set at $14,857 which is the Bitfinex BITFINEX:BTCUSD BB on the 15 minute below support. My entry was extremely low so I have wiggle room.
BTC Time IndicatorCorrection time.
FOMO is driving this pump with Media blasts about the recent ATH. We will get a break out in the the next few hours however, down will be the ultimate movement by the end of Sunday the 3rd.
This is not advice.
I don't need to be right or wrong.
I don't care if the market goes up or down.
Make your Own analysis and trade off of that.
If you have positive, constructive criticism and wish to share Please do.
Agreeing or Disagreeing is not personal and is welcomed in a positive way.
Don't crack out on BTC 1.63% too long and remember to go outside and climb a tree or something.
Happy trading
~Ji
Bitcoin correction countdown startedTechnically speaking bitcoin bulls are getting exhausted judging from the bearish divergence on RSI and DMI and Tom DeMark’s TD Sequential. TD Setup on weekly will be completed end of this week with the 9 count after which pause, pullback, or reversal is likely. Correction can still stretch up until count 13 which will be the end of the year. At this point the main price drivers seem to be Koreans and Japanese plus new money coming in due to this sudden rise in price. At this point I am mostly out of BTC and in partially in BCH.
P.S. Checkout the Swiss army knife we're building for crypto traders on Telegram (t.me) and follow our twitter for upcoming features and signals (twitter.com)
₿itcoin General Assessment (Bigger Picture)This is a running thread for ₿itcoin BITFINEX:BTCUSD updates and thoughts. The idea here is marked as long until we are out of a Bull market, then the trade will be marked as "closed".
Shown above the Weekly Tom Demark Sequential shows we are at a 8 count on the trend cycle, the close of that candle happens tomorrow. Regardless of the bearish divergences seen at $7,900 levels I have been, and still remain Bullish for BTC to hit $10,000 by the end of December, truthfully I would not be all that shocked to see BTC well above $10,000.
Shown above the Daily shows us close to the top of an existing trend resistance, we are on the beginning of a TD sequential trend, if the weekly stays intact we could see 6 more days of a bullish trend for BITFINEX:BTCUSD breaking that trend on the daily. Keep in mind pullbacks can happen and the volatility will do nothing but get larger in dollar value as we continue to higher dollar levels. When we were at $1,000 per bitcoin a $100 swing was 10%, now at this writing a $100 swing is barely 1.2%.
Shown above the the 4 Hour on Bitfinex still shows the buying pressure continuing to embarrass sellers. The pitchfork I use to track healthy trend levels shows some wiggle room upwards, I think with the coming news cycle and BTC mania we could see a new level of movement that will require a new assessment on what is healthy and what is not.
Shown above the OBV remains healthy..
Shown above the CMF (Chalkin Money Flow) shows a bit of a divergence there, but it is partially due to the lack of selling pressure making it easier for the bulls to dominate. It is something to keep an eye on.
Shown above the 4 Hour RSI, STOCH, MACD.
Shown above the Hourly's do appear to have a need to cool down, but that does not mean it is time to open a leveraged position here in either direction, entry is key.
Overall I remain bullish on ₿itcoin BITFINEX:BTCUSD but as a day trader I will post divergences (as in my last BTC post) and possible short term pullbacks as I see them. TA is never 100% perfect no matter the skill level but what is perfect is your trading strategy and risk management to mitigate losses or call reversals. In the end good risk management will overpower Technical Analysis error and keep you in profit. Remember to always use stop losses when trading (especially with leverage) and to do your own TA regardless of what other pro's see or analyze.
I will add smaller time frames in separate posts as I see opportunities become available.
₿itcoin General Assessment (Bigger Picture) This is a running thread for ₿itcoin BITFINEX:BTCUSD updates and thoughts. The idea here is marked as long until we are out of a Bull market, then the trade will be marked as "closed".
Weekly Tom Demark Sequential shows we are at a 8 count on the trend cycle, the close of that candle happens tomorrow. Regardless of the bearish divergences seen at $7,900 levels I have been, and still remain Bullish for BTC to hit $10,000 by the end of December, truthfully I would not be all that shocked to see BTC well above $10,000.
Daily shows us close to the top of an existing trend resistance, we are on the beginning of a TD sequential trend, if the weekly stays intact we could see 6 more days of a bullish trend for BITFINEX:BTCUSD breaking that trend on the daily. Keep in mind pullbacks can happen and the volatility will do nothing but get larger in dollar value as we continue to higher dollar levels. When we were at $1,000 per bitcoin a $100 swing was 10%, now at this writing a $100 swing is barely 1.2%.
The 4 Hour on Bitfinex still shows the buying pressure continuing to embarrass sellers. The pitchfork I use to track healthy trend levels shows some wiggle room upwards, I think with the coming news cycle and BTC mania we could see a new level of movement that will require a new assessment on what is healthy and what is not.
OBV remains healthy..
CMF (Chalkin Money Flow) shows a divergence there but it is partially due to the lack of selling pressure making it easier for the bulls to dominate. It is something to keep an eye on.
4 Hour RSI, STOCH, MACD.
The Hourly's do appear to have a need to cool down, but that does not mean it is time to open a leveraged position here in either direction, entry is key.
I will add smaller time frames in separate posts as I see opportunities become available.
Overall I remain bullish on ₿itcoin BITFINEX:BTCUSD but as a day trader I will post divergences (as in my last BTC post) and possible short term pullbacks as I see them. TA is never 100% perfect no matter the skill level but what is perfect is your trading strategy and risk management to mitigate losses or call reversals. In the end good risk management will overpower Technical Analysis error and keep you in profit. Remember to always use stop losses when trading (especially with leverage) and to do your own TA regardless of what other pro's see or analyze.
How Much Lower Can Bitcoin GO? Tom DeMark and Elliot Wave TheoryElliot Wave 4 is taking us down for a .618 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3, that means we will dip to around 5k... From a timing perspective this might coincide with a TomDemark Sequential 9th Daily candle which signals price exhaustion and likely the end of the downtrend... If my analysis is right we should get there by Nov 17th, that is 5 days from now... Stay tuned!
How to trade BTCMXN Ichimoku and TD SequentialBTC touch briefly the 90K zone just to pull back. Ichimoku signals a bullish bias although is very clear that RSI is in the overbought zone. BTC may very well keep hitting ATH's but I wouldn't advise to enter the market in this conditions. The TD sequential also signaled (sell) price exhaustion for the last bars, this is basically telling us that the trend might be reversing and we should start considering taking profits if long.
UBIQ Everywhere and Nowhere (man)While there's a lot of room for Ubiq to retrace upwards back to .0009734 it is on a beautiful incline, forming a cup and TD says another couple of candles here to go. You can see all the historic support/resistance lines and how Ubiq is a good soldier following them like a group of fire ants. Makes me kind of antsy for it to get on with it already, although truth be told, who doesn't like a decentralized coin without premine and I've been in and out of Ubiq since May. Ubiq for the people, not the ants. I'm staying in for the ride and we'll watch it break each and everyone of these support/resist lines together.
Paul McCartney: Where are we going, Johnny?
John Lennon: Straight to the top, boys!
Paul McCartney: Oh yeah? Where's that?
John Lennon: The toppermost of the poppermost!
ETHBTC Weekly Chart Analysis, TD Sequential and Spinning TopTaking a step back and looking at the Weekly ETHBTC Chart, we see that the TDSequential Indicator signaled a Buy Trade (Red 9) on the week of December 5th, 2016 around the level of .01 BTC. This level held steady until the breakout in February 2017.
When the market finally reached exhaustion, we were signalled a Sell Trade (Green 9) on the week of June 19th. Smart traders could have anticipated the 9 and made the trade one candle earlier on the week of June 12th (Green 8) to lock in maximum profits.
Since the Sell Trade signal, we have had a four-candle correction to the downside (two to four is typical) and are now watching a Bullish Spinning Top form on top of the .5 "Fibonacci" Retracement Line as the week of July 17th comes to an end. If the Doji completes and we do not break below the longterm Bullish Trendline and 20-Week EMA, we can expect a bounce upwards to try to break out of the Bearish Channel.
It should be noted that when zoomed into the Daily Chart, we were already given two Buy Trade signals on June 27th and July 9th (both Red 9's) and as of today, July 23rd we've made a Red 4 count in yet a third Buy Trade sequence.
For confirmation of the trade, we should look for the RSI to make a tick towards the upside on the next weekly candle, or at least to hold above 50.
On our move upwards we can expect resistance (and place targets) near .1 BTC and .12 BTC, both of which correspond to Fibonacci Retracement Lines, and again near .14 BTC which corresponds with the TDST Line (Tom Demark Setup Trend) before re-testing All Time Highs near .15 BTC.