TECH
NAS100 Overbought - SELLOFF IMMINENT"Investors" aren't pricing in any risk. Notice the 4hr. reaching overbought RSI levels with low a ADX reading. The RSI is now falling off. Expecting ADX to move higher as a SELLOFF RESUMES with SURGE IN VOLATILITY $VIX. Protect your #kingdollar as the Fed is continuing to raise rates throughout 2023. NO RATE CUTS in sight. HEDGED with $UVIX $UVXY
BTC Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 125Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard Nasr, as known as theSignalyst.
125 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Double Bottom Setup on NAS100, Target at 13,600The main view of this trade idea is on the Daily Chart.
The heavily tech-weighted NASDAQ 100 Index (NAS100) is in a double bottom chart pattern setup. The Index sustained heavy declines in 2022. However, during the period October 2022 and December 2022, NAS100 held support around the 10,400 to 10,800 price zone. Initial resistance, or the middle of the W or Double Bottom pattern, is at the 12,000 price level. Pattern completion will be when the Index hits 13,600. This view will be negated if NAS100 declines below 10,400.
Technical Indicators
The technical indicators corroborates this view. NAS100’s Supertrend indicator recently turned to buy-mode on the Daily close on January 9th, 2023. This was supported by a positive crossover on the 75 Day Simple Moving Average a couple days later. The Awesome Oscillator has been showing positive momentum from January 4th 2023 while the Index’s RSI is above 50 and trending higher.
The intra-day trend following indicators of the NAS100 also display uptrends in the 15-Min, 2-Hour and 4-Hour time frames. Short to medium term support is seen around the 11,170 price level.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 10,400 and a target of 13,600. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.90.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
At the time of writing, I have exposure to NAS100.
VOLUME FLOW: SEMI'S ($SMH) AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET ($SPY)VOLUME FLOW INDEX:
Both $SPY (broader market) and $SMH (semi-conductor industry) are currently in a neutral trend as measured by their 13 Day EMA envelope (top box). Both are also residing in similar places within their longer term downward trends. It is only when we take a look at volume as measured by the Volume Flow Index (VFI) that we can uncover some relative differences that could prove meaningful in the near term.
Volume has yet to breach zero line (white horizontal histogram) to the upside in broader market ($SPY, see left lower box).
Volume has breached the zero line in the semi-conductor sector($SMH, see lower right box), as illustrated by the yellow vertical line. This would indicate good 'force' behind the recent semi-conductor rally as measured by 'volume follow through' which I would consider a measure of 'conviction'.
This could be indicative of a near term preference for the semi's amidst an overall run to defensives in the broader market OR it could just be that semi's are a little bit stickier than the rest of 'growth' and still have some downside wood to chop. Given the semi's association with 'Growth' this divergent volume trend seemed counter-intuitive to the prevailing narrative so I thought I would share.
(Not financial advice)
Is Apple about to be 'bitten'?Apple is one of the companies whose stock price is overvalued, and the company is facing several severe issues:
1. Big tech layoffs. If US tech is doing quite poorly and companies are laying off people, they probably won't buy new equipment or software. The fired tech workers probably won't be buying stuff for themselves either, and neither will those that see their colleagues fired.
2. Apple's production in China faces significant problems due to lockdowns or because the 'employees' are revolting. These disruptions hurt the reliability of Apple, as well as its image. Unfortunately, many employees are working and living in awful conditions, which is being exposed. Many ESG funds that hold Apple could end up having to dump their shares based on these concerns.
3. Some US politicians are increasingly worried about the connections between Apple and the CCP. With Apple 'threatening' to remove Twitter from its Appstore while supporting the CCP in an era where tensions between US and China aren't great, we could see Apple face more pressure to move away from China. That could increase their costs significantly while also disrupting production even further.
4. As retail consumers are affected by inflation and high-interest rates, they will spend less on buying new stuff, and many devices/apps aren't necessary. At the same time, Apple has been raising its prices due to increased costs (of production), which might further incentivize customers not to purchase their products/services. As if these weren't enough, some of its new products aren't that much of an upgrade to the previous versions.
5. As the world is moving closer toward open source and open technologies/marketplaces, the 30% tax on the Apple app store looks worse and worse by the day. Based on the above, the free market and politicians in the US might try to break Apple's monopoly, which could initially lower its revenue.
6. Current Apple valuation is 3.4x that of the entire crypto market (stablecoins excluded). This is just too large.
AAPL is trading below all its major moving averages, has broken its old uptrend, and has plenty of room to move down toward that major gap at 96$. Most major US companies have fallen more than 30% and have filled many significant gaps, yet Apple has not. Therefore it is possible to see the stock price go down to those levels in the next few months.
Could NASDAQ fall 20% more by end of January?Here are my core channels and trendlines. NASDAQ looks to be losing support of the blue channel. If so, I see 2 support trend lines: green line around 9500 and the red line around 8750. If we see the same abc correction wave from earlier this year, that will put us right at 8750 and the red trend line.
"Cryptocurrency Turmoil: The Ups and Downs of Coinbase and Other"Cryptocurrency Turmoil: The Ups and Downs of Coinbase and Other Digital Asset Companies"
Coinbase is a company that helps people buy and sell digital coins called cryptocurrencies. It became a public company in April 2021 and was worth a lot of money at the time. But lately, the value of cryptocurrencies has been changing a lot and it's made it hard for Coinbase to make as much money as it used to. Another company that helps people trade cryptocurrencies, called FTX, had to close down because it was having financial problems. This made people worried about investing in cryptocurrencies and caused the value to go up and down more than usual. Some people try to make money by betting that the value of a company's stock will go down, and they're called short sellers. They've been trying to make money by betting that Coinbase's stock will go down, and they've had some success because the stock has gone down a lot this year. Other companies that are related to cryptocurrencies have also seen their stock go down and have had more short sellers trying to make money off of them. There is a tool that helps people see how much demand there is for borrowing a company's stock to sell it, and it's called "utilization." Utilization for Coinbase has gone up recently because more people are trying to borrow its stock to sell it. Short sellers have to pay a fee to borrow the stock, and this fee has gone up a lot for Coinbase recently. There are also other companies, like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital Holdings, that have seen their stock go down and have had more short sellers trying to make money off of them. The fees to borrow their stock have also gone up.
Nasdaq Fractal Blackswan Cycles 📈📉The average citizen lacks any real understanding of Central Banking all they know are uneducated talking point from 🐑 that have the same or less power over their lives & the system as a whole that gave rise 2 them at leverage while they are none the wiser they are referred to by the architects of the system as... 🤓👉 ( working class / human capital)
Scandals like Enron, Madoff, & now FTX are just bi-products of easy money policy that gives risk to excessive risk seeking behavior by the 🐑 which the FED understands most be corrected out of the system in order to maintain the 100 yr + trajectory they have done with the United States of America & ensure the survival of the livestock in the farm so the country has a stable to growing labor pool to remain an ongoing concern. There is a reason Steve Jobs didn't care what the peeps in the mailroom complained about and that is cuz its not their system and they have no idea how lucky they are to even be part of it 🧐
This cycle with FTX is just one more demonstration of just how much The Federal Reserve is the market & really knows what they are doing. As painful as the de-risking process the Fed puts the country through can be we can see on the macro that it is indeed a necessary evil to flush out back actors that form during easy 💰 policy cycles ♻️ & before they can grow even larger & more damaging to the system as a whole 🤓
Bear 🐻 markets end in mass graves 💀 so these events are 🔑 2 bringing aboutthe depression phase of the cycle & bottoming out the market before the Fed engineers new growth 📈 Patiently waiting for 2024 💡
short term bullishness in semiconductors lower lowthis bounce in tech is kicking off the morning, but its not rocketing to new highs, and in this macro environment im not changing from bear bias totale. i will consider 4hr longs taking profit into pivot or upper smart money concepts profile area resistance. remember to reenter short on bear momo.
Let's see what happens next!At a current support zone right now. I can see a dump to the lower line first before a scalp-long plays out. Let us see.
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Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Safe Trading, Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
green appleif price can hold above last OB at 144.9 and break thru rejection block at 152.3 its very likely we could see a rally with a target of 155-160
Fundamental analysis:
- Apple moving production out of china to possibly india or vietnam is bullish to me, they've realized the situation in China could end up being detrimental to production. To me this shows quick & efficient leadership.
Let me know your thoughts!
AAPLs always fall from the treeDo any apples ever stay on the tree?
Alot if mass holding this bitten apple up. It’s only a matter of time before it falls from the tree.
Lots of imbalance below and smart money concepts on the weekly/monthly looking tasty for leap puts. Not investment advice but I am loading…
Musk vs Apple, CCP, 30% tax. All signs the Apple is connected by its last fiber. The slightest mention of US regulation against Apple sue to its monopoly will send the Apple tumbling towards equilibrium or discount zone.
Trade safe and have fun!
Apple Bullish Dragon at S/R Zone Bullish Above $145If AAPL can get and stay back above 145 we can very likely see it Break Above the Dragon Trendline and hit a Minimum of $163 but if it goes extremely well i could see it going to $193.32
I believ this will also help The Dow to completelky reach it's upside targetss as the Dow has been extremely strong and ahead of the SPX. Nasdaq 100, and Russel.
Nasdaq 100 will keep falling. Here are some key levels to trade!The chart shows my macro plan on the Nasdaq. I believe with fed rate hikes today we will start again another decent lower in the markets. The Nasdaq has great potential to see a nice relief bounce off of the Golden Pocket noted on the chart. This small rally will most likely be stopped in its tracks at the descending trendline (if it even gets that far). After a solid rejection at the trendline the Nasdaq will head lower into the .786 fib retracement and into a major uptrend support line. If this line holds and the fed has stopped hiking rates it is very possible that the Nasdaq could breakout of the descending parallel channel.
Tesla - Breaking out of a wedgeTesla - Short Term - We look to Buy at 177.90 (stop at 163.33)
The medium term bias remains bearish. Broken out of the wedge formation to the upside. Bullish divergence can be seen on the daily (the chart makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low), often a signal of exhausted bearish momentum, or at least a correction higher. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 237.00 and 262
Resistance: 200.82 / 237.40 / 265.25
Support: 169.91 / 166.19 / 150.83
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AMD ~ Heavy Demand Area AMD, the semiconductor leader, and monstrous Tech Company has taken a very big hit on its stock in the past 12 months. AMD Has issued guidance worries on demand woes and earlier, supply woes.
No matter these shorter-term issues that are going on within AMD, and in the Macro-Outlook of the Economy, AMD is attracting and will be attracting many buyers at these much more fair-valued prices.
As AMD has continued to fall it has hit a significant Trendline that has acted as strong support for the past year's downtrend. Along with this trendline tap, AMD continues to enter a major demand zone from pre-covid levels. The High $40s to $60 will remain a very demand-heavy spot for AMD as many buyers step in.
Long Term buyers and bounce Buyers are anticipating for a bounce off these trendlines, and possibly a bottom near this solid demand zone. AMD's p/e ratio has fallen dramatically to around 20, resigning a fair price to the company's stock rather than the high $100s.
Many Buyers will be seeing value at this price.
My thesis is that this can be a smart Long-Term Entry for scale-ins on the company's stock. Buying at these demand levels will carry lower risk/reward with AMD reaching fair value, and a huge demand zone.
I personally believe years out, this is a perfect acquiring zone to start!
Not your blue chip tech company, that's the good thing!NYSE:PSTG in the data storage industry breaking out from a fisrt base after it bottom.
NASDAQ:SPSC in the computer software industry, specifically in supply chain solutions, breaking out from a fisrt base after the bottom.
Both are 1st in their IBD Industry Rank.
PSTG made a cup that could fuel a good move, and SPSC has its next resistance +25% away.
Which one do you like better?
GOOG: Inverted Cup with Handle Google is playing out an inverted cup and handle with a conservative price target of $73-76. The price target should be lower, around $71.50, but I shaved a little off because there is some old support from the Jul-Oct 2020 period that should buoy the price, at least for a bit.
The daily EMA ribbon flipped bearish in April and since then a precipitous 38% downslide has ensued, the most recent retest of the daily EMA on Oct 24th yielded another crushing rejection. Price should be ready to run again to the downside as it recently slipped through a support/resistance line unrelated to the pattern around $89.40 and has since completed a pullback and been rejected.