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SPX SP500 Bottom predictionHere is my prediction of the SP market bottom. How do we get here. well currently the small and medium stocks that were overpriced have been smashed, I'm talking about all specs the poster child of the 2020 run, all speculation stocks lemonade, zoom, peloton and other retail favourites have been killed. Ive always said the market will bottom when the big names finally give way, I'm talking about apple Tesla Nvidia has already started. eventually the market masters want to buy at prices they always want to buy at, cheap. when Tesla finally comes from 100 PE ratio to 40, apple back to 20 nvidias down to 25 that's when the market bottoms. its always the big stocks that hold the market up last and right now we are in that phase. keep your eye on Apple its currently around 158/160. this could easily collapse to 130 again if not lower Tesla down to 180/200. this will be the time to load up for the next 5 -10 years. patience is key here don't fight the fed, trend is your friend and no real reversal is in play imo until demand destruction has happened, recession is here, unemployment comes up to 7/8%, interest rates continue to raise higher causing new mortgages to come to a stand still as people won't be able to afford to buy, housing starts coming down again all of this is definitely possible in my opinion. don't forget loads of other macro events too.
SP:SPXShort
by JamesFlem
3
Bull Signals for Apple StockBased on my calculations, the most distant point at the predictory period shown by the blue line is an ideal time to begin dollar cost averaging into AAPL stock; Based on Fibonacci calculations (with 10 week constraints ), a strong bullish sign is evident within the coming weeks. Now's the time to buy the dip. Apple Inc. (AAPL) is currently in a primary dip period, meaning it is a prime opportunity for the outlooked wealth transfer towards retail investors like us. AAPL has been on a tear since its lows in early 2016, and has more than doubled in price. However, the stock has pulled back in recent months and is now trading around its primary dip period lows. This could be a sign that the wealth is starting to transfer towards retail investors, and now may be a prime opportunity to buy AAPL. Apple is a technology giant and is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the global technology sector. The company has a strong brand and a loyal customer base, and is well-positioned to continue to grow in the years ahead. Apple is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18, which is a bit higher than the broader market, but the company is expected to grow at a rate of around 10% in the years ahead, which justifies the premium. Overall, Apple is a strong company with a bright future, and now may be a good time to buy the stock. The wealth appears to be transferring towards retail investors, and AAPL is trading at a discount to its fair value. Executing a long position with a minimum of a 6 month time-frame.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by trustneil
7
Tesla, Worst case scenario To some this may seem to be the worse case scenario, others it will be a dream come true. Take a look at the 2020 bottom and the major run Tesla had to the top, one could call it epic and yes it was. if you take a fib level from the bottom to the top of the run the 61 fib is within a very particular level. around the 180 level are various support and resistance levels which make it an interesting level for Tesla to come back to during a hard market crash. it'd around 30% drop from current levels but there would be heavy buying in here and I can't imagine Tesla going lower. I think it will get here if the labour market turns bad US currently has 3.5% which is a 50 year low. I see this increasing massively overt the next 6 months. energy will come back with vengeance causing inflation to peak back up again and agree it will remain sticky. the fed will have to do something like drastically increase rates or run the risk of hyper inflation in the US which for me cannot happen so they would rather deal with the induced recession. it will only happen when they have an agenda like mid terms, or china something they can blame the recession on. all this stems form the initial monetary policies pre and whilst covid gripped the world. overall im positive on Tesla and believe they are changing the world and I agree with buying companies that have a positive impact or a major impact on the world. IMO its joined the club of Microsoft, apple, google as one of the greats and will likely beat all of those in terms of market cap eventually. anywhere near 200 ill be buying in big amount. let me know your thoughts
NASDAQ:TSLA
by JamesFlem
5
NASDAQ - Powell Pow WowLast words from the last analysis were: " be cautious as volatility will spike! " And Powelll delivered a strong stance which blew volatility to a monthly high, up 17% for the VIX. The weekly NASDAQ chart completed the bearish candlestick pattern on a 55EMA failure, and sliced through the 13K support. This is totally not bullish for the next couple of weeks. Downside targets now appear the last low (in October) or a more ominous symmetry projection farther down at 9.5K. The weekly technical indicators currently do not suggest enough bearish power to reach there (yet) and 11.5K higher low appears plausible at the moment. Thing is... next month's Fed meet will firmly provide enough volatility for the next few weeks. The NASDAQ daily chart demonstrates how a reality statement could drive home a message. It can in the form of a Bearish Engulfing, that broke down the 13K support and 55EMA, forming a lower high. Bearish technical indicators have been suggesting this for the past week or two, so should not be much surprise here. Both daily and weekly charts are aligned in bearish tones (as expected earlier), so perhaps an early week technical bounce, and then later week, or the week after, push down is likely...
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Paypal: Pay up for thisPayPal - Short Term - We look to Buy at 89.71 (stop at 84.43) Broken out of the channel formation to the upside. We have a Gap open at 89.63 from 02/08/2022 to 03/08/2022. We have a 38.2% Fibonacci pullback level of 89.84 from 103.03 to 68.51. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. Our profit targets will be 116.91 and 152.00 Resistance: 103.03 / 117.20 / 122.92 Support: 89.84 / 80.22 / 76.71 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by Saxo
$NVDA Nvidia missed earnings! Next level of support has a gap.$NVDA has a very interesting chart. Today NVIDIA announces earnings, missed. The price plunged a bit after hours but not as bad imo. I see a solid accumulation/support near the $157-$161 level. NVDA previously broke out of a falling wedge on July 15th, however, it didn't back test the break-out zone afterwards, holding the support level this week would set up a textbook INVERSE Head & Shoulder pattern with a first target/resistance near the $190 level. Closing above the $190 neckline would open the door to more possibilities such as filling the gaps above (marked in red) created in APRIL 2022. Losing the $157 level would break it down to the low $140's setting up a possible double bottom pattern as a best case scenario. Gaming is a billion dollar industry and most of the crypto decline shock is priced in. NVIDIA is poised for continued upside in the coming years as we slowly enter the metaverse.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by ChaldeaCode
2
$MIRM bear proof 👁‍🗨 *This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management My team entered Mirum Pharmaceuticals $MIRM today at $25 per share. Our take profit is $30. We also have a stop less set at $24 OUR ENTRY: $25 FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $30 STOP LOSS: $24 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NASDAQ:MIRMLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
4
Here's Why You Should Think Twice Before Selling TechThis is a 2-month chart of the Nasdaq US Composite Index (IXIC). At the bottom is the Stochastic RSI which oscillates up and down depending on how overbought or oversold the market is. There have only been a few times since its inception a half-century ago, that the Nasdaq Composite Index had a 2-month chart this overextended to the downside. The K value of the Stochastic RSI has actually reached zero. If the 2-month chart closes at that level, it will mark a super rare occurrence that has only occurred twice in the history of the Nasdaq (the last time being at the bottom of the Great Recession). I calculated the one-year returns for the Nasdaq one year (from low to high) after the K value of the Stoch RSI on the 2-month time frame dropped below the oversold line (to or nearly to 10). For the case of the Dotcom bust and the Great Recession, I selected the point when the Stoch RSI's K value first reached 0, which is its current reading and which is thus fairly comparable. Even during these significant economic downturns, buying at this oversold level produced decent returns one year out. Obviously, past price action does not guarantee future price action, but history does tend to repeat itself. Odds are that ten years from now you'll probably be wishing you had bought into this oversold level. Here are the one-year returns from the market bottom during the 2M period (when the Stoch RSI K value met the criteria listed above) to the market top of the 2M period one year later: +95.78% +36.47% +31.24% +78.89% +20.17% +69.50% +27.14% +52.36% Mean: +51.44% Not financial advice. As always anything can happen.
TVC:IXIC
by SpyMasterTrades
Tech is at a Significant BottomI'm surprised that no one on Trading View posted this chart today. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to 6.86 today. This means about 94% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq. While anything is possible, it's highly likely that we are seeing peak fear, peak inflation, and market capitulation currently. This extreme level makes for a very good risk-to-reward setup for going long. My strategy is to place a 2x daily ATR stop loss on QQQ or TQQQ. It's likely if we drop below this level then we're in for a deep recession. Whereas if this low holds, then this is a major bottom for tech.
INDEX:NDTHLong
by SpyMasterTrades
10
A traders’ week ahead playbook – the equity juggernaut buildsIn the week ahead the known event risks are less impactful than what we faced last week, and we see catalysts that are more idiosyncratic to a set region. The RBNZ should hike by 50bp and indicate more is coming, and while much of this hike is already priced, I favour following the technical breakdown seen in EURNZD, GBPNZD, and GBPAUD EURAUD. We get UK jobs and CPI inflation data (consensus 9.8% YoY ) which could seal a 50bp hike at the 6 Sept BoE meeting, or if weak swing the pricing towards 25bp – the latter which would naturally weaken the GBP – given UK rates market are already pricing 47bp of hikes for the Sept BoE, and there is a ceiling at 50bp (i.e the BoE won't hike by 75bp), then you can understand why the market is selling GBP, certainly against high beta FX (AUD, NZD, MXN). Watch the double top neckline in GBPUSD (daily chart) at 1.2003, if that goes this week then we could be ready to make a move to 1.1800/50. The AUD looks well supported as global (and notably EM) equity markets fly – the Aussie Q2 wage and employment report could solidify the 50bp call for the September RBA meeting and see more being priced into the Aussie rates curve for the remainder of 2022. If equity markets remain supported, which seems likely to be the case, then weakness in the AUD should be mopped up, given its role as a thematic vehicle for trading an improvement in market sentiment – that said, a focus on a broad set of classic fundamental inputs also looks bullish for the AUD – where Aussie 10yr real rates, terms of trade and 2-year nominal bond yields are all outperforming that of the US and many other nations. The FOMC minutes may get some focus, predominantly because this may detail the confidence (or the lack of) the Fed have in forecasting the ‘neutral’ rate – this is the level for the fed funds rate where the monetary policy setting is neither restrictive nor accommodative – they currently see this is around 2.25% to 2.5%, where the current fed funds rate resides now - and while many will dismiss the importance of the neutral rate, it matters because if the Fed are to take the fed funds rate well into restrictive territory then they need to understand the yardstick and the degree by which they plan to tighten. The fact we recently had 2 to 3 rate cuts priced in for 2023, was a reflection that once inflation was on a downwards trajectory then the Fed had licence to take rates out of a restrictive setting and back to a neutral one. (US500 daily) The equity juggernaut rolls on Arguably though the big talking point is around moves in global equity indices, many of which are showing real momentum. I like the JPN225 from the long side, but the NAS100 has rallied for four straight weeks and has led us higher, with names like Apple at the heart of the moves, rallying 33% from its lows of $129. As is the case for the US500 and US30, we look at fibo retracements of the Jan-June and April-June sell-downs as markers (and potential resistance), but we also eye the 200-day MA. The US 500 200-day MA comes in at 4317, so expect this to make headlines if breached. The equity drivers? There is no doubt that better US data has helped drive this bullish equity trend, and we can see the influence by a simple overlap with the Citigroup US economic surprise indices. The harder part for retail is the liquidity aspect and we must understand the plumbing in the US monetary system. So, while we’ve seen securities (Treasuries and Mortgages) holdings start to roll off the Fed’s balance sheet (BS) through QT, what’s important is that the liability side of the BS, and specifically the levels of excess reserves that commercial banks hold with the Fed, have been increasing – and at a faster clip than the securities they hold have fallen – in layman terms, this is essentially QE – better liquidity results in risk-taking. We then turn to flow-based activity – as equities push higher options dealers have covered their delta hedges – while I could spend much time explaining this concept, essentially this has meant dealers buying back a sizeable short S&P500 and NAS100 futures position. We also saw ‘CTAs’ (Commodity Trading Advisors) – systematic trend-following hedge funds that use futures to trade trending markets buying back their short equity index futures exposures and are now net flat. Remember, these players are typically rules-based, and the talk is if S&P500 futures can push above 4310/20, then the trend players will start to buy S&P500 and NAS futures – a trigger then for a further push higher. We also see the VIX index below 20% and S&P500 20- and 30-day realised volatility dropping hard – funds that target a level of volatility – or what we call ‘volatility control’ funds have been reducing cash holdings and adding capital into equities again. If statistical levels of S&P500 volatility continue to decline, then these massive players will add to the equity rally – it will also incentivize FX funds to be long ‘carry’ – or income – which means buying those currencies with the highest yields (or forward points)– we’re talking MXN, ZAR and NZD. The equity rally is tough to fully grasp – getting the intel on many of these flow-based activities and truly understanding what is really going on can be a challenge for many – but as long as the liquidity dynamic holds up, US data comes in line and various big money players chase the tape higher then there may be more juice in the tank – I certainly wouldn’t get in front of it at this stage. Another big week ahead – keep an open mind and prepare to react accordingly.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
5
$QQQ Have we reached the climax of counter-trend rally?Nasdaq-weight QQQ has bounced nearly 23% from its bottom back in mid-June, and we are at a critical resistance with the multi-month trendline and the resistance area indicated in the red box. I see a retracement in the near future back to the confluence support of 20/50EMA, possibly retesting the mid-June low. Summary: - Short-term bear bias - Trend line resistance - weekly EMA resistance - bearish RSI divergence - Price resistance to previous low I am personally reducing tech exposures and hedging with SQQQ, and increasing cash size to re-enter with a lower price.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Mattyx227