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A traders’ week ahead playbook – the equity juggernaut buildsIn the week ahead the known event risks are less impactful than what we faced last week, and we see catalysts that are more idiosyncratic to a set region. The RBNZ should hike by 50bp and indicate more is coming, and while much of this hike is already priced, I favour following the technical breakdown seen in EURNZD, GBPNZD, and GBPAUD EURAUD. We get UK jobs and CPI inflation data (consensus 9.8% YoY ) which could seal a 50bp hike at the 6 Sept BoE meeting, or if weak swing the pricing towards 25bp – the latter which would naturally weaken the GBP – given UK rates market are already pricing 47bp of hikes for the Sept BoE, and there is a ceiling at 50bp (i.e the BoE won't hike by 75bp), then you can understand why the market is selling GBP, certainly against high beta FX (AUD, NZD, MXN). Watch the double top neckline in GBPUSD (daily chart) at 1.2003, if that goes this week then we could be ready to make a move to 1.1800/50. The AUD looks well supported as global (and notably EM) equity markets fly – the Aussie Q2 wage and employment report could solidify the 50bp call for the September RBA meeting and see more being priced into the Aussie rates curve for the remainder of 2022. If equity markets remain supported, which seems likely to be the case, then weakness in the AUD should be mopped up, given its role as a thematic vehicle for trading an improvement in market sentiment – that said, a focus on a broad set of classic fundamental inputs also looks bullish for the AUD – where Aussie 10yr real rates, terms of trade and 2-year nominal bond yields are all outperforming that of the US and many other nations. The FOMC minutes may get some focus, predominantly because this may detail the confidence (or the lack of) the Fed have in forecasting the ‘neutral’ rate – this is the level for the fed funds rate where the monetary policy setting is neither restrictive nor accommodative – they currently see this is around 2.25% to 2.5%, where the current fed funds rate resides now - and while many will dismiss the importance of the neutral rate, it matters because if the Fed are to take the fed funds rate well into restrictive territory then they need to understand the yardstick and the degree by which they plan to tighten. The fact we recently had 2 to 3 rate cuts priced in for 2023, was a reflection that once inflation was on a downwards trajectory then the Fed had licence to take rates out of a restrictive setting and back to a neutral one. (US500 daily) The equity juggernaut rolls on Arguably though the big talking point is around moves in global equity indices, many of which are showing real momentum. I like the JPN225 from the long side, but the NAS100 has rallied for four straight weeks and has led us higher, with names like Apple at the heart of the moves, rallying 33% from its lows of $129. As is the case for the US500 and US30, we look at fibo retracements of the Jan-June and April-June sell-downs as markers (and potential resistance), but we also eye the 200-day MA. The US 500 200-day MA comes in at 4317, so expect this to make headlines if breached. The equity drivers? There is no doubt that better US data has helped drive this bullish equity trend, and we can see the influence by a simple overlap with the Citigroup US economic surprise indices. The harder part for retail is the liquidity aspect and we must understand the plumbing in the US monetary system. So, while we’ve seen securities (Treasuries and Mortgages) holdings start to roll off the Fed’s balance sheet (BS) through QT, what’s important is that the liability side of the BS, and specifically the levels of excess reserves that commercial banks hold with the Fed, have been increasing – and at a faster clip than the securities they hold have fallen – in layman terms, this is essentially QE – better liquidity results in risk-taking. We then turn to flow-based activity – as equities push higher options dealers have covered their delta hedges – while I could spend much time explaining this concept, essentially this has meant dealers buying back a sizeable short S&P500 and NAS100 futures position. We also saw ‘CTAs’ (Commodity Trading Advisors) – systematic trend-following hedge funds that use futures to trade trending markets buying back their short equity index futures exposures and are now net flat. Remember, these players are typically rules-based, and the talk is if S&P500 futures can push above 4310/20, then the trend players will start to buy S&P500 and NAS futures – a trigger then for a further push higher. We also see the VIX index below 20% and S&P500 20- and 30-day realised volatility dropping hard – funds that target a level of volatility – or what we call ‘volatility control’ funds have been reducing cash holdings and adding capital into equities again. If statistical levels of S&P500 volatility continue to decline, then these massive players will add to the equity rally – it will also incentivize FX funds to be long ‘carry’ – or income – which means buying those currencies with the highest yields (or forward points)– we’re talking MXN, ZAR and NZD. The equity rally is tough to fully grasp – getting the intel on many of these flow-based activities and truly understanding what is really going on can be a challenge for many – but as long as the liquidity dynamic holds up, US data comes in line and various big money players chase the tape higher then there may be more juice in the tank – I certainly wouldn’t get in front of it at this stage. Another big week ahead – keep an open mind and prepare to react accordingly.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
5
$QQQ Have we reached the climax of counter-trend rally?Nasdaq-weight QQQ has bounced nearly 23% from its bottom back in mid-June, and we are at a critical resistance with the multi-month trendline and the resistance area indicated in the red box. I see a retracement in the near future back to the confluence support of 20/50EMA, possibly retesting the mid-June low. Summary: - Short-term bear bias - Trend line resistance - weekly EMA resistance - bearish RSI divergence - Price resistance to previous low I am personally reducing tech exposures and hedging with SQQQ, and increasing cash size to re-enter with a lower price.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Mattyx227
$MASS, growth stock close to breakout908 Devices Inc is in the Medical-Research Eqp/Svc Group. It develops analytical devices for chemical and biomoecular solutions. The price made a shortfall within the channel that has been forming since January. This shortfall may signal a breakout in the right direction. I would buy it with a target sell at its next resistance level which is at $29, that's a +20% profit. Play this trade with your own risk/reward strategy. I'm sure I will. Also just recently, the company tweeted: "Proud to share our #MX908 device was chosen by the U.S. Army to provide chemical identification in their #AugmentedReality training program, ensuring optimal safety when encountering unidentified substances".
NASDAQ:MASSLong
by dpuleo19
Where will MSFT go next? Just having fun......First time publisher and amateur trader.......... Its time for MSFT earnings and with the combination of inflation, global economies, ongoing wars, food shortages, recession fears, supply chain issues, new Covid mutants, and regular old P/E predictabilities, it seems like a crazy and unpredictable market, HOWEVER, its fun to play and pretend like I can guess price movement, so I decided to publish my first Idea about MSFT. Any comments or advice is welcome in good taste. Lets pretend for a moment that we did hit some sort of bottom recently............ No Crystal Ball Here! MSFT seems like they are distanced enough from the social media AD pressure + have enough diversity with Azure to dodge the computer sales impacts, BUT I think that the next big price movements will rely on good earnings with positive forecast (obviously). The 10:1 volume for buying last weekwas especially reassuring and I think MSFT will remain in an uptrend for the next couple of weeks. We are right at the 200 day moving average. There is good resistance at $250 and $255 and I think that MSFT will try hard to stay above $250 no matter what. Part of BIG TECH, found in VALUE Etfs, doesn't rely on advertising, and also has a near 1% DIVIDEND. I love MSFT these are my personal ideas. These are just ideas and not professional advice or anything related to advice. Safe trading.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by impulsecapital
$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets$QQQ Analysis, Key Levels, and Targets REQUEST - here you are @lonehorse QQQ has a very similar story to SPY… It’s trading above the cloud on the 4 hour (though it peaked up briefly at the beginning of the month - but there was a little bit more conviction today and some follow through from yesterday). It did not fill the entire bear gap, it was left open a little bit so if QQQ opens below this then it will become a resistance. If it opens above the gap then it’s getting into the cloud which often means a bit of sideways trading… Next resistance above that is the 200MA on the 4hr which conveniently coincides with the top of the cloud… Both MacD and RSI point to a move higher in the next few days/weeks… I would just be mindful of the resistance levels… and the supports… And the weekly technicals are all showing a nice curl up which might give some momentum upward…. If that 300 psychological resistance breaks I could maybe see a run to 313ish… just remember that moves within the cloud can be sluggish and it tends to kill volume, which can be good or bad depending on what you’re trying to do… The 200MA weekly has been a very very very strong support across the ENTIRE bull market… for now, that is MAX pain if it does go down… but I’m seeing a lot of bullish technicals so short term I think we see that move above the gap and towards the top of the cloud… It looks like chaotic territory just in time for earnings season… I'd like to add that IF we see companies trading within their expected ranges... that in and of itself would be a bullish signal, I would think... because if we can see earnings not completely shaking the markets, like it has for the past year, even before the market turned in january... that would be a clear signal for me to go more heavily long Best of luck… 💃🏻 (sorry that was so rambly... I just type without a filter LOL) —- I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed. GL and happy trading. IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
2
$AERC air space filtration! 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management My team entered interior air space purification company Aeroclean Technologies $AERC on 7/5/22 at $12.40 per share. This wasn't intended to be a Trading view trade, but this play is developing smoothly, and we figured we would just show you guys what we're up to. OUR ENTRY: $12.40 FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $18 STOP LOSS: $11 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
ALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Novavax - Wassup?Novavax NVAX is actually lining up pretty well... from about 240, it tanked to 40, and on Friday, it gained 11% to close the week at 57.15. This caught my attention as it cleanly broke out of trendlines, breaking out also from a bearish divergence, on BOTH the weekly and daily chart. IMHO, it appears to be in technical and fractal alignment. Weekly chart bounced off a major support two weeks ago, and the last week continued the previous week's bullish end. On the daily chart, Friday's close was the highest daily close in about 5 weeks. with a strong candle closing draws obvious bullish attention. Target 80, then 125. Support at 53 and 50.
NASDAQ:NVAXLong
by Auguraltrader
3
$META FACEBOOK Meta Technology Falling Wedge Descending Channel$META FACEBOOK Meta Technology Company Falling Wedge Pattern - Descending Channel - Double Bottom at support with a bullish harami on the 4 hour candle. $META is looking bullish from here on a technical view for a bounce off the bottom trendline. If it breaks out and holds above the channel it has a measured move of $234 target. GAPS are marked in RED. Word on the streets says Mark Zucker is not hiring much and has been bringing the heat in on his current employees hoping to weed out the weakest links. Meta has had some failed crypto related launches and has thick competition in the social media world. Better management and highly talented individuals is exactly what the company will need in order to be first class in the metaverse and live up to the name.
NASDAQ:METALong
by ChaldeaCode
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP. Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up. $TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above. So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.
NYSE:TSM
by ChaldeaCode