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Black Swan - A Gale of Creative DestructionIdea for Macro/Tesla: - We speculate a coming crisis, similar to the energy crisis of the 1970s-1980s, not with oil, but machinery, minerals, semiconductor chips and semiconductors/electronics materials. - We expect the tech bubble to crash in the nearest future. - This crisis will only be the first domino piece to fall in the Imperial Circle of the US financial system. It is the first moat of the financial elite. 1970s: - "Growing computer power and engineering sophistication enabled the development of a host of new complex applications designed to improve accuracy and save the customer time and energy. The advantage provided by its unparalleled range of tools reinforced Schlumberger as the market leader, and that meant the company was in prime position to benefit from the upsurge in worldwide oil exploration triggered by the OPEC oil embargo of 1973." - Schlumberger - Innovation and disruptive tech drove investors to speculate its valuation to monstrous levels during the exploration boom of the 1970s. - From its initial public offering on the NYSE in 1962 to its peak in 1980, Schlumberger appreciated 50-fold. Its cult status among investors was rivaled only by Radio Corporation of America during the 1920s. - "Jean Riboud is credited with building the world’s leading oilfield testing company. During his tenure, he produced a 19-fold increase in revenue (to $6.4 billion) and a 44-fold increase in earnings (to $1.2 billion), often producing results that were the best in the world. His success was generated through a commitment to long term planning, a dedication to research, and a strong decentralized management structure." - Harvard - "Under his leadership, Schlumberger grew to become the largest oilfield services company in the world with interests in other sectors such as semiconductors. He expanded the company business by acquisitions, too; the taking over of Fairchild Camera and Instrument was one such acquisition. By the time he relinquished his position to his successor, Michel Vaillaud, in 1985, the company had a net profit of US$I.2 billion on a revenue of US$6.4 billion and had presence in over 100 countries, controlling the operations of 70 percent of the world's oil wells. At that time, the company employed 80,000 people, held US$10.9 billion in assets and was considered by many as the best managed company in the world." - Wikipedia - The real price of petroleum was stable in the 1970 timeframe, but there had been a sharp increase in American imports, putting a strain on American balance of trade, alongside other developed nations. During the 1960s, petroleum production in some of the world's top producers began to peak. Germany reached its production peak in 1966, Venezuela and the United States in 1970, and Iran in 1974. - Although production in other parts of the world was increasing, the peaks in these regions began to put substantial upward pressure on world oil prices. Equally as important, control of the oil supply became an increasingly important problem as countries like West Germany and the U.S. became increasingly dependent on foreign suppliers for this key resource. - In October 1973, the members of Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries or the OAPEC (consisting of the Arab members of OPEC) proclaimed an oil embargo "in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military" during the Yom Kippur war; it lasted until March 1974. - By January 18, 1974, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger had negotiated an Israeli troop withdrawal from parts of the Sinai. The promise of a negotiated settlement between Israel and Syria was sufficient to convince Arab oil producers to lift the embargo in March 1974. - Independently, the OPEC members agreed to use their leverage over the world price-setting mechanism for oil to stabilize their real incomes by raising world oil prices. This action followed several years of steep income declines after the recent failure of negotiations with the major Western oil companies earlier in the month. - For the most part, industrialized economies relied on crude oil, and OPEC was their major supplier. Because of the dramatic inflation experienced during this period, a popular economic theory has been that these price increases were to blame, as being suppressive of economic activity. However, the causality stated by this theory is often questioned. The targeted countries responded with a wide variety of new, and mostly permanent, initiatives to contain their further dependency. The 1973 "oil price shock", along with the 1973–1974 stock market crash, have been regarded as the first event since the Great Depression to have a persistent economic effect. - The decade of the 1970s was a period of limited economic growth due in part to the energy crises of that decade. Although the mid decade was the worst period for the United States the economy was generally weak until the 1980s. The period marked the end of the general post-World War II economic boom. It differed from many previous recessions as being a stagflation, where high unemployment coincided with high inflation. - Other causes that contributed to the recession included the Vietnam War, which turned out costly for the United States of America and the fall of the Bretton Woods system. The emergence of newly industrialized countries rose competition in the metal industry, triggering a steel crisis, where industrial core areas in North America and Europe were forced to re-structure. The 1973–1974 stock market crash made the recession evident. 2004: - Although Musk has long been the face of Tesla, he did not join the company until 2004. He invested $30 million into the company and became the chairman of its Board of Directors. - Opening on the NASDAQ at $17 a share, Tesla raised $226 million in its IPO. - Musk, in several public writings and statements, has said that he would like the company to eventually become an energy solution across many sectors. - Tesla, lead by Musk has revolutionized the auto industry with disruptive tech innovations, leading investors to speculate its stock price to a monstrous valuation. 2018: - The volume of trade in goods between the US and China has grown rapidly since the beginning of China's economic reforms in the late 1970s. The growth of trade accelerated after China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, with the US and China becoming one another's most important trading partners. The US has consistently imported more from China than it has exported to China, with the bilateral US trade deficit in goods with China rising to $375.6 billion in 2017. - Initiating steel and aluminum tariff actions in March 2018, Trump said "trade wars are good, and easy to win." U.S. President Donald Trump in January 2018 began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are "unfair trade practices" and intellectual property theft. 2019: - January 14: An article in The Wall Street Journal reports that in China's 2018 trade surplus with the United States was a record $323.32 billion despite Trump's tariffs. - March 6: The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that in 2018 the U.S. trade deficit with China reached $621 billion, the highest it had been since 2008. - July 17: China announced an accelerated decrease in holdings of US treasury holdings, targeting 25% of its current holdings of $1.1 trillion. - January 3: Reuters reported that in December 2019 the American manufacturing sector fell into its deepest slump in over a decade, attributing the decline to the U.S.-China trade war - Analysis by Goldman Sachs in May 2019 found that the consumer price index for nine categories of tariffed goods had increased dramatically, compared to a declining CPI for all other core goods. - Analysis conducted by Moody's Analytics estimated that through August 2019 300,000 American jobs had either been lost or not created due to the trade war, especially affecting manufacturing, warehousing, distribution and retail. 2020: - China will spend over $300 billion on importing semiconductors this year, an industry expert told the World Semiconductor Conference in Nanjing on Wednesday, as the U.S. continues to put pressure on the country’s access to the most advanced chips. - “China is the world’s largest importer of chips,” Wei Shaojun, vice chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, said on Wednesday. China imported $301 billion worth of semiconductors last year—more than the $238 billion it spent on crude oil. Wei said that China will still spend $300 billion or more on semiconductors this year so long as “nothing out of the norm happens.” - The “norm” is fast changing as U.S.-China relations deteriorate. The Trump administration has increasingly used its dominance in the semiconductor industry to cut off Chinese companies—particularly Huawei Technologies—from international supplies. - COVID-19: "Some major industrial companies have closed facilities and are mulling the extent of layoffs to help curb the spread of the virus, as well as for economic reasons. Clearly, the manufacturing sector, which employs some 13 million workers in the US, is poised to be hit hard during this outbreak, primarily for two reasons: First, many manufacturing jobs are on-site and cannot be carried out remotely. Second, slowed economic activity has reduced demand for industrial products in the US and globally." - PwC 2021: - By Feb. 4, Tesla had surpassed a stock price of $900. - Mineral exploration boom under way. - January 20: Trump left office and Joe Biden was inaugurated as president of the United States. Biden said that he did not have immediate plans to remove the tariffs and planned to review the phase one trade deal and discuss the matter with allies first. - COVID: Currently, there are certain mutations and variants that are being followed closely by investigators across the world. For example, the mutation E484K present in the South African variant B.1.351 seems to create a greater risk for reinfection and decrease some of the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines. This same E484K mutation has also been found to be present in the Brazilian variant P.1 and the New York variant B.1.526. - We speculate that there is risk of further lockdowns due to COVID-19 mutations leading to further decline of manufacturing. - During the 70s, the hungry oil and gas industry demanded energy, yet today, it is tech and the EV industry. They demand metals, semiconductor chips, and related electronic materials. Today, emerging nations like China and India have appetites like the US during the 1900s. - Previously, the Bretton Woods agreement was abandoned because other countries had accumulated 3x the amount of USD than the amount of gold the US had, threatening a run on US gold! - The current situation also shares similarities with the 1920s. There exists a threat of a liquidity crisis. There is a 1.5 quadrillion dollar derivatives overhang, and an "everything" bubble. - Today, US dollars are not backed by anything. The reserve status is based largely on the size and strength of the U.S. economy and the dominance of the U.S. financial markets. - We speculate that there is a cascade of liquidations of overleveraged hedge funds like Archego beneath the QE floor. The question is, can the US "print" money forever? Can they purchase bonds forever? This is a topic for another post, but: “Large government deficits exist and will almost certainly increase substantially, which will require huge amounts of more debt to be sold by governments — amounts that cannot naturally be absorbed without driving up interest rates at a time when an interest rate rise would be devastating for markets and economies because the world is so leveraged long." - Ray Dalio “It is a sobering fact that the prominence of central banks in this century has coincided with a general tendency towards more inflation, not less. If the overriding objective is price stability, we did better with the nineteenth-century gold standard and passive central banks, with currency boards, or even with 'free banking.' The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy.” - Paul Volcker The financial system of the US will be tested, and possibly changed forever. The very concept of what money is may be re-evaluated. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Stocks/Technical - TSLATechnical Trade Idea for Tesla: - The setup: Wyckoff structure in distribution, end of 2-Legged Pullback and a bearish Anti-Climax. - Trigger: Close the daily in a hammer. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
Where Is The Tech Sector Headed This Week?I would love to say I'm Completely bullish on this. The chart shows consolidation at a key level, which could mean we will breakout to ATH's soon. However, the RSI just broke an important trend line and is near the top line. In addition to that, we have many more earnings dates this week, which could be a bearish sign. I think the most likely outcome here is more consolidation. Last week was a major earnings week and we didn't take too big of a hit. However, I would remain mindful of the fears of inflation and the bearish RSI formation. Good Luck!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Investor4321
Facebook bullish ER runup planNYSE:TWTR NYSE:PINS NASDAQ:FB Facebook is currently looking GREAT for a rally. It is currently bouncing off 200 EMA (very strong support), at .236 fib level (bounce region?), potentially breaking out of the bull flag pattern, 6 oscillator bullish divergence, AND Earnings on Wednesday? I smell GREAT chances for a rally especially with a lot of other Tech and social media stocks having earnings this week. This should be a great week for social media stocks like Facebook and tech stocks in general. Currently in a squeeze but I am expecting that we are flying on release. Planning on buying a few calls on monday, and playing the ER run up. Good luck to anyone thinking about hopping in! Lets make some money!! If you liked this, follow me on twitter to see all my new TA @greg_trades_
NASDAQ:METALong
by greg_trades_
Snap Inc Before Earnings Snap Inc. is expected to report earnings on Tuesday after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Mar 2021 . Right now we have small pullback before the earnings , snap reach to 65$ and created double top . Between 60$ - 65$ channel we can see very strong resistance (double top) ,there we have the downtrend Fib 50%-61.8% from Feb. we may see pullback until uptrend Fib that located at 64$ - 67$ channel , Ema's 20 / 50 act as Support in the short term , If the price will go down to this levels and pushing up with good Support that will be Entry 1 If the price go above 65$ this will be Entry 2 T1 - 67$ T2 - 71$ T3 - 74$ T4 - 77$ * There is no buy / sell recommendation in the aforesaid ,
NYSE:SNAPLong
by daveinvest8
2
BIG TECH FAILING? (AMZN)Amazon appears to be stalling at the highs. As the sp500 moved higher big tech seems to be stalling out at the highs. This is usually a very good sign that a major market crash is down the line (this year). Over the next few motnhs we are going to see huge swings/volatility in the market and amazon is going to lead the way imo. I will be looking to short the tops and only potentially buy the dip if it is at major weekly demand zones lower. Short bias for now Ninja's! :)
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by NinjaTradingServices
QQQ slide SQQQ rise We are what looks like a perfect setup for an SQQQ rise which would mean a QQQ decline. Currently it's been trading in a descending wedge and about to cross over on the daily MACD. This is followed by low RSI and and some near term gaps that need to filled. I think the question is how far does the NASDAQ have to decline again for these gaps to be filled? Could have another small decline tomorrow or we could start a reversal next week... who really knows Looks like a nice set up to possibly take advantage once there is a clear breakout. That's all folks.
NASDAQ:SQQQ
by moonman777
🔹 $AAPL 1D Technical Analysis PT 128 than 140🔸 $AAPL 1D watching for a pull back right here price target 128 & bounce off 128 to break the bull flag & Wave #5 breakout. Looking at puts to ride it down to 128 this week. RSI overbought also & gap down below @ price target. After we fill the gap down below I am looking at to scale in calls for Earnings Run Up as well as Wave #5 PT 140. 🔸 Price Target 128 anytime this week 🔸 Price Target 140 2-3 Weeks, Earnings Run UP & Wave #5.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Firecycle114
2
Viacomcbs Inc - Long Opportunity Buy at $40 - stop loss at $38Fundamental Point of View: ViacomCBS has recently featured heavily in the news due to it's $3bn stock offering, resulting in a large sell off which has had a role to play in the misfortunes of some hedge funds. Ignoring the misfortunes of Archegos Capital Management, ViacomCBS successfully raised $2.65bn at $85 a share. ViacomCBS now has a significant opportunity to pursue it's aggressive strategy to compete with the likes of Netflix and Prime. Technical Point of View: I've labelled levels of strong support and resistance on the chart and what becomes apparent is that the sell off witnessed over the last couple of weeks has stalled at a very significant level. This level is where strong, historical, horizontal support intersects the corona recovery line of support. This presents the perfect risk vs reward opportunity of a bounce back up to prior resistance. The three price targets highlighted are recent areas of support that were broken and are now acting as resistance. Price target two lines up perfectly with the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.5,therefore if a bounce occurs i am looking to take profits at this level. Buy in the range of $40 - $41 with a tight stop loss at $38. At present i am not in this stock but have entered a buy order at $41.
NASDAQ:PARALong
by Doddle
$TYLStrong support on the trendline & 200dMA(blue). 20dMA (green) crossing upwards through the 50dMA(red) which is medium term bullish signal. Our STOCH is hanging around in oversold territory currently & just recently has a nice hammer candle. Some DD - Tyler Technologies just recently acquired ReadyStub, which makes scheduling software for school districts. ReadyStub works with approx. 1k school districts across the United States & TYL already has 2k school districts as clients. Some would say TYL is significantly overvalued, but the long term return of this company I love. Its projected to grow 10.78% annually over the next five years. They have strong financial strength with a good cash to debt ratio and interest coverage. They are at 30.47 which is better than 75% of the companies in the software industry. $TYL has been profitable 10 times over the last 10 years. Over the past 12 months the company has had a revenue of $1.1 billion dollars. Its operating margin is 15.49% which ranks them better than 82% of the companies in software industry. This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor. This is solely my opinion.
NYSE:TYLLong
by Dot0dte
AMZN to move into a bear marketAmazon stock has largely been trading sideways for the better part of 5 months, I've noticed this symmetrical triangle pattern which failed to break to the upside on February 2and. On February 25th a daily candle closed below the trendline support of this triangle. After a fall down to 2878 AMZN will likely look to retest this trendline as resistance. If we breakdown again or come up short of the trendline this could provide a good opportunity for a short trade. The expected measured move of this triangle is 24.61. My target for this short trade is 25.25 as I expect this to be the next place of decent support that is close to the measured move of this triangle breakout. I will set a stop at 3376. I will enter this trade between 3166 and 3209. I'm seeing a lot more potential short trades on FAANG stocks, even though everyone is patting them selves on the back because of higher highs in the broader market. I don't think we are out of the woods yet!
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by zac_destroys_all