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AAPL Targets Lower, Be SmartWe are at an interesting zone when it comes to AAPL. It's holding strong above the most relevant pivot low as you'll see in the chart. There is a chance that it can go up fro here so if you would like to long, I would place a stoploss elow the recent wick low. I would also manage my position size so the its a 1% risk on the trade it your stop was to hit. In the end, when zooming out, I think AAPL will retrace back to the bottom of the channel before pumping higher. There are a few key levels on the way dwn where we can expect a reaction and other trade set ups to play out. I'm currently long, anticipating a small bounce at these levels, with a 1% stop under the current wick low. Lets see how it all plays out. Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Navitility
MSFT Targets Bottom Of ChannelMSFT has been rejected from the top of the ascending channel and is looking to continue it's sell off to the golden pocket shown in the chart or the bottom of the channel. not shown on this chart but if you zoom into the 1hr TF or 4hr TF, you'll notice that it did perform a Swing failure pattern and it could move up from these levels but in the upcoming weeks i expect price to continue falling and have a nice reaction at the golden pocket or bottom of the channel. Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Navitility
IBM Bearish Pattern!!!When taking a look at IBM, we an see that it has had an impressive climb over the past few weeks. This bullish climb is also printing a bearish reversal pattern. The rising wedge breaks out to the downside more than it breaks upward. With this being said and the price action approaching the end of the wedge, i would expect a drop from these levels to the next support around 5% down. If you end up taking a trade, use risk management so you don't lose more than 1%-2% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Calculate Your Risk/Reward! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NYSE:IBMShort
by Navitility
Analyzing Nasdaq-100 $NAS100 for Potential Double Top ReversalThe NAsdaq-100 (NAs100) index is currently displaying a classic double top formation on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential bearish reversal following a robust 7-month rally. This surge was primarily propelled by a select group of companies utilizing AI technology. A Double Top pattern, characterized by two almost equal peaks, serves as a bearish reversal indicator. It suggests a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, signifying a slowdown in buying pressure and an emerging influence of sellers in the market. To confirm a downtrend, keen observation of the critical support level at 14,500 is vital. A breach below this level would not only cross the intersecting trendline but could potentially prompt a 5% decline in the index in the short term. Such a move could mark the beginning of a bearish market sentiment. An intriguing correlation exists with NVIDIA's chart, which shares similarities with this pattern. Thus, it's imperative to closely monitor this tech giant's performance, given its significant influence on the broader tech sector and, consequently, the entire market. This information should be viewed as guidance and not definitive instructions. Thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor are essential before making any investment decisions.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Blast910
SP500 - Consolidation before ATHI think that SP500 wont go much lower than where it is right now (Yellow mark), A consolidation for a month or two is more likely before testing ATH. In worst case scenario we could go down to the purple marked area, that is also where the 50% level sits from ATH to the bottom of 2022. A Break below that level would be devastating for the markets which would mean lower for longer. I see many are calling for a new low of this "bearmarket" which is not my opinion at all, I think we are in a bullmarket since the bottom 2022 and that the recession everyone talks about already happened. I see no reason for us to not break ATH within 6-12 months from here.
SP:SPXLong
by WealthNode
Micron Tech forming a flag?MU is very interesting to me at the moment, it's currently formed a flag and as you can see in the chart we have had a steady up trend across the board in both price, RSI and MACD. You could argue MACD has already broken out of a triangle type formation to the upside even. The risk-to-reward ratio is quite good, you can place a trade with a stop loss just under the flag and it gives you almost a 9:1 RR. With a more liberal stop loss, you are still looking at an R:R of almost 3:1. The main concern here is if the tech sector start lagging in general, this could easily lag with it. Which is why I am inclined to buy the breakout and not the flag formation. Cheers
NASDAQ:MU
by ChartDudes
ETH - The Bulls Are Pushing, However...❗️Greetings, TradingView Family! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. Just like BTC, ETH has been bullish the last couple of days and is currently back above the local support (1600.0). 📈 For the bulls to remain in control, it's crucial for ETH to surpass the last high in orange at 1663.0 . If this occurs, we can expect further upward momentum toward 1700.0 blue supply zone. 📉 Meanwhile, ETH would be stuck inside the new range between 1600.0 and 1650.0 📚 Always remember to follow your trading plan when it comes to entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! Remember, all strategies are good if managed properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
24
BTC - Break or Make Zone ❗️Greetings, TradingView Family! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on Weekly: Left Chart 🏹 From a macro standpoint, Bitcoin has been predominantly bullish, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Moreover, BTC is currently positioned around a robust support level at the psychologically significant round number of 25,000. 📌 As long as the support at 25,000 remains intact, there is an expectation that the bulls may regain control at any moment. As per my trading style: I will be looking for bullish setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break, and so on...) to confirm the bulls takeover. 📌 However, it's worth noting that BTC still has the possibility of descending, potentially dipping into the range between 24,300 and 25,000, or even breaching this support level to the downside. on H4: Right Chart For the bulls to take over medium-term, we need a break above the last high in red at 26,450. Meanwhile, BTC can still trade lower, dive inside the green support or even break it downward. 📚 Always remember to follow your trading plan when it comes to entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! Remember, all strategies are good if managed properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
21
ETH - Medium-Term & Long-Term View 🔎Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart ETH is still overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in red. This week, ETH broke below the 1650.0 support zone, hence we are expecting further bearish movement till the 1500.0 support. As ETH approaches the 1500.0 support which is intersecting with the lower red trendline, we will be expecting the bulls to kick in. on H4: Right Chart In parallel, for the bulls to take over again, we need a break back above the 1620.0 resistance zone. For now, we wait ⏱ Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
8
BTC - Bulls Are In Control - Short-Term ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on H4: Left Chart As per my last video analysis, BTC broke above the 26,200 previous major high so the bulls took over short-term. Now we are expecting a continuation till the 27,400 supply zone marked in red. on H1: Right Chart The bulls will remain in control, unless the last minor low at 25,815 is broken downward again. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
27
Tech performance after peak valuation?Tech stocks have been soaring, but can this outperformance be sustained or will this artificial intelligence (AI) driven boom mimic the internet explosion and subsequent bust of the 2000-2002 period? Today, gains in the sector are concentrated in large companies like Nvidia and Meta, with year-to-date (YTD) returns standing at 225% and 148% respectively, subsequently causing the Nasdaq 100 to outperform the S&P 500 by around 25% YTD1, mostly due to its extra weighting in the Tech sector (~60% vs ~27%)2. This rally has been accompanied by a significant expansion in valuation multiples, specifically the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Particularly relevant for the Tech sector, the P/S ratio offers a way to evaluate companies that may not yet be profitable but are generating sales—a common scenario among new and innovative firms. For many in the Tech sector today, this ratio has soared to unprecedented levels. At the end of March 2023, Nvidia became the company with the highest P/S ratio in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. It has only increased since then, reaching a P/S ratio of over 40, which is based on the trailing 12 months of sales. Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, however, did forecast a large (60%) jump in future sales, so analysts are now pricing in future sales which brings down the multiple to 25 times expected sales over next 12 months3. This leads us to our key question: based on a historical sample of companies that have reached these valuations in the past, what are the chances that Nvidia can continue to outperform? The research in this piece will explore the implications of high P/S valuations, which will be defined as 25 or over (coincident with Nvidia’s price over expected sales), on future company performance. P/S ratios: from rarity to normality From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, it was uncommon to find a company with a P/S ratio over 25. When it did happen, it was one or two firms each year, and the percentage of the total market cap they represented was negligible. Today, high P/S ratios have become routine, especially in the Tech sector: is this the new normal? The tech bubble of 1999-2002 saw a drastic surge in companies with high P/S ratios. In 1999, there were 56 companies with a P/S ratio over 25, representing over 6% of the total market cap. The trend peaked in 2000, with 113 companies and over 10% of the total market cap. For most of the 2000s, several companies each year reported a P/S ratio over 25, making up a small but not insignificant portion of the total market cap. The COVID-19 era of 2019-2023 saw another surge in high P/S ratios. In 2020, there were 32 companies with P/S ratios over 25, making up 1.10% of the total market cap. The trend extended into 2021 when 44 companies contributed to 2.46% of the total market cap. This shift was partly propelled by an influx of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs), as newly public companies often command high valuations. The momentum shows no signs of waning in 2023, with over a dozen companies already boasting a 25 P/S in Q1 alone—the majority of which are tech stocks. Dynamics of top P/S stocks Within the universe of the top 500 largest US companies by market capitalisation, 99 companies have reached the distinction of having the highest P/S ratio of all companies since the 1960s. Nvidia now holds this title today. The Tech sector takes the lion's share of the highest multiple stocks, representing 27.3% of the companies, followed by the Health and Energy sectors, accounting for 22.2% and 17.2% respectively. To understand the dynamics of the companies with the top P/S ratio, we examined their performance over various periods following the point at which they claimed the top spot. We scrutinised their returns over the subsequent 1, 3, 5-year periods, and until the end of sample or March 2023. An interesting pattern emerged. In the year following the point when a stock takes the top spot for the P/S ratio for the first time, these companies continued outperforming—on average beating the S&P 500 by almost 1.5%. But their momentum falters in the years that follow; within the next three years, their average annual return declines to -4.4%, and the five-year average annual return fell further to -1.5%. Notably, the markets were annualising over 9% over those next 3-5 years, so their under-performance versus the market was more than double digits. When we take the entire history of these stocks, their average return still falls short of the market by over 12% a year. Even when we break it down by sector, it seems as though once a company reaches the position of ‘top P/S’, it struggles to maintain its momentum and keep up with the market. Tech and Health sectors, those with the most companies appearing in this top spot, don’t even outperform in the short term, but have negative returns on average. Declining odds of out-performance Looking at all 2691 companies that have been in the largest 500 at some point, the tables below show how frequently companies reach a specific P/S threshold, and the odds that it will outperform the market in the next 1,3,5,10, and 20 years. For the 231 companies that have reached a P/S over 25, they only outperformed the market in the next year 21% of the time, with a median relative return of -36%. Over longer horizons, this percentage worsens, reaching 9% over the next 3 years, and 4% over the next 20 years. For higher P/S ratios (>40) it’s even less likely to outperform the market on all time frames. The odds become stacked against you having a winning long-term stock at these valuations. The market has seen a shift in recent years, with high price-to-sales (P/S) ratios becoming increasingly common, particularly in the Tech sector. Our analysis suggests that an overemphasis on high P/S stocks may falter in the long run, as it may prove difficult for these companies to sustain the rapid growth required to justify these valuations and continue their performance trajectory. Sources 1 Source: Performance data is referenced from Yahoo Finance, with YTD referring to 2023 through 21 July 2023. 2 Source: Respective S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index factsheets, with current data as of 30 June 2023. 3 Source: Investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2023/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024/default.aspx This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NDX
by aneekaguptaWTE
PayPal added to the watchlistShares of PayPal lost nearly 82% of their value since the top in July 2021, and judging solely by this metric, one could consider the stock cheap. Nonetheless, there is more to it. In 2022, PayPal saw its revenue increase by 8% on a yearly basis and transaction volume grow by 16%. In addition to that, the company processed 22.3 billion payments and $1.36 trillion in total payment volume, with active accounts rising by 2% YoY to 435 million. However, its operating margin dropped by 10% and net income by 42% (using GAAP accounting). In the first quarter of 2023, the company delivered better results compared to the first quarter of 2022, with net revenue growing 9% YoY, operating income by 41% YoY, earnings per share by 62% YoY, and net income by 56% YoY. As for the second quarter of 2023, the company reported a further increase in net revenues by 7% YoY, operating income by 48% YoY, and earnings per share by 414% YoY. In this quarter, PayPal generated $1.029 billion in net income compared to the loss of $341 million a year earlier. Based on some of the fundamental improvements and cheap valuation, we think PayPal is growing increasingly attractive and worth watching out for. However, we would like to emphasize that the stock keeps making lower lows and lower highs. Thus, entering the trade is still quite risky. One alternative to approach this situation is to wait for a price to break above the upper bound of the channel and place a long entry there with stop-loss below the bound. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of PayPal and its losses since the top in July 2021. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by Tradersweekly
5
Reasons to Aim Even Lower Than Before on the NASDAQ-100So you have this Local Double Harmonic setup with PPO Confirmation on the QQQ that is aiming for a 20-40% pull back which can be seen here: In addition to the setup above, you also have this longer term Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern that goes all the way back to the beginning of 2016 and If the local Harmonic Plays out, we will likely hit the bottom Demand Line before ever having tested the Upper Supply Line and that would then confirm a Partial Rise which would give us a heightened 74% chance of breaking down below the wedge. Upon breaking below the wedge our typical price target for a wedge like this would be a 100% retrace of the pattern which in this case takes us back to 2016 levels at around $3,800
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by RizeSenpai
NVDA: Monthly Bearish ABCD Signal Pending Lowering Target to $80Last month I posted a setup that made the argument that NVDA was trading within the Pattern Completion Zone of a Bearish ABCD visible on the Monthly Timeframe and that all I was looking for was a Monthly PPO Confirmation Signal which would likely be triggered by a Bearish Negative Monthly Candle within the Zone; this situation remains the same we are still trading within the zone even after the earnings pop, but we simply haven't had that negative month yet, however it does seem like it will soon give me the signal that I want and it's something to pay attention to, at this point I'd say it'd be ok to put on a midsized bearish entry via 1-3 month NVDA Puts around the $480-$500 strike or NVDS Calls at the $36 strike and upon generating the bearish negative signal candle it will be appropriate to put on the full bearish entry. In addition, after the recent Price Action and Earnings, if we do get the signals we want here, NVDA will probably drop back down to around $80 The original setup can be found below:
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by RizeSenpai
14
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?Snowflake, a Nasdaq company, has earnings looming post-market, which has IV on weekly calls and puts juiced to 150%. Yet people are still gambooling on the next big instawin. The problem is you'll blow your account and won't need TradingView anymore and won't be able to have any fun in your community. Really, a far better proposition if you want 5 and 8:1 odds on things that are like 10 or 20:1 against to hit is to deposit on a sportsbook and put the same risk into a 3-bet parlay on late season MLB. If you're right you'll even get paid the same day and not have to mess around with charts and bars all day. Snowflake is one of the tech sector dump casualties, but has never bounced. The monthly shows very clearly we're simply sitting in $90 worth of range spanning almost a year and a half. And while $90 in range is pretty good, the problem is that it doesn't pump. There will eventually be a change in market structure and the most likely target is under $110. Weekly bars show us that the May low has been taken out before earnings, and this is a factor that is not consistent with bank/fund sponsorship to take out the highs. Which hints to us that the largest players who can move the market of a company that is still valued at $49 billion while printing $650~ million in quarterly revenue are probably targeting the bottom of "the flag" and not the top. While the failure swing at $190 forms a double top and becomes a target, the problem is that everything is set up, with Jackson Hole as the Federal Reserve and the world's most critical financial policy decision pending on Friday, to continue to correct and correct violently into the fourth quarter. Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The End Moreover, a lot of the worldwide economic situation is being heavily driven by what's going on Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he still hasn't thrown away. Word in the Western media is that the regime's de facto state run corporations, for whatever reason, are sitting on something like $3 or $4 trillion in real estate debt that's about to explode in their hands. There's still the problem of natural disasters like the Beijing floods, economic calamities like the International Rules Based Order jawing and chattering about "de-risking" from China, and the impact of the virus that has claimed many, many more people than the few hundred thousand the CCP has officially reported to John Hopkins for the official trackers. Worst of all is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners looms over the head of the Party. Even though Xi isn't responsible for the persecution and hasn't participated, it was done by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the toad faction nested in Shanghai-Babylon, Xi is the one with his head in the prisoners' box because he's now the Chairman of the Party. And on top of that is an epidemic of arsons masquerading as climate change that have burned to death tens of thousands of hectares of trees and forests and their associated plants and animals. This world is out of control, but it's not allowed to stay out of control for long. And while it's on the brink, you're being told to get long by furus, Discord, Telegram, Wechat, Stocktwits, and Reddit, and are happy to take the bait, because you don't see the danger. So here's what's up for SNOW on earnings. A really likely theory is that it doesn't do much at all because the option sellers will just hold the price where it is in advance of Jackson Hole, let IV decline, collect all the premium from you as everything expires worthless on Friday and laugh. And somewhere along the way, Snowflake will have a $12 retrace to bring in breakup traders and take out short sellers to $165. But this $165 will be another form of optimal short entry to target the $100 mark before Q4 expires. If there's to be upside on this stock, based on the length of time and range of the chop and the specific price action amid the overall market and macro conditions, it would be a lot more likely to come after the lows get taken. Be careful.
NYSE:SNOW
by LordWrymouth
NAS100 H4 | Potential bearish reversalNAS100 is rising towards the sell entry at 14995.37 which is an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse from this level to drop lower. Stop loss is at 15124.07 which is a pullback resistance that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 14720.41 which is a swing-low support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% retracement and the 61.8% projection levels. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
FX:NAS100Short
by FXCM