Bitcoin - Weight of Evidence Analysis.Okay guys here's my weekly update for BTCUSD.
This week has been a relatively boring one again, no substantial movements and we seem to be stuck in a sideways channel.
Keeping the chart as simple as possible, I've removed the trend line as it's no longer confirmed and using my 45EMA and Support/Resistance lines.
Here is the evidence we have to work with to assess any possible outcomes.
- The price action is still above the 45EMA on the daily so I'm still bullish for the long term. = Bullish
- A confirmed sideways channel has formed with low profit available to swing trade. = Neutral
- Support of this channel is around $7460.
- Resistance of this channel is around $8350.
- Volume is dropping off, although higher volume found on green candles. = Slightly Bullish
- MACD showing a possible Golden Cross forming. = Slightly Bullish
- Daily RSI Sitting relatively healthy around 50 giving. = Neutral
- Weekly RSI just under the oversold value. = Bullish
- Weekly candle patterns look healthy for bullish continuation. = Bullish
If we gather the evidence and analyse it, we see the there is a slightly bullish overall result.
The smart trader wouldn't enter now as there is not solid bullish signals or breakouts.
Here is an idea to help you put the odd's further in your favor during these channel formations.
- Set a Stop-Limit Entry for a long position around 8500 if you're an aggressive day trader or 8900 if you're a less aggressive investor.
- Set a Stop-Limit Entry for a short position around 7400 if you're an aggressive day trader or 7200 if you're a less aggressive investor.
Once one of the positions has executed just close the other and set a stop that suits your trading plan/system.
To finalise and sum up, the market is very close to neutral with a slight bullish possibility. Never try to predict the tape, just use the information it supplies to try build the best analysis possible while securing your margin.
This Idea is in no way financial advise and it should never be used as such. All this information should be used for educational purposes only. Seek a qualified financial professional for advice relative to your financial situation.
