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ETH Bottom in April 2023?I haven't made a post in some time - namely because I wanted to let the FTX issue settle. It's interesting times on Twitter, sentiment is overall bearish, and it's hard to make heads or tails of the market at the moment, given the ongoing threat of multiple liquidations of ETH and BTC from the FTX hacker. Furthermore, at any point where we see some recovery, we end up seeing a more challenging step down, hurting a lot of investors in the short term who may be short on liquidity and fearful of recession or ongoing inflation challenges. I searched for some time to understand why this was happening and found an idea I wanted to track and test. ** Disclaimer** I'm a novice trader working to put my thoughts out there to see how they stack up against the market - please feel free to share/comment on my studies - please don't use this chart as financial advice The assessment highlighted a flag on the 3D (translates to 1W and 1D charts, too) time band, which clarified the movements of BTC and ETH recently (I'm tracking ETH as my preferred coin). I saw this flag set-up being discussed on Twitter and was compelled to follow it. It shows a deep falling bullish wedge (off the bull run's peak) with an approximate end point of April 2023 - to my surprise, it seems to be holding up well against the price movement of BTC and ETH. After setting my chart up to align with the discussion I found on Twitter, I added the fib retracement to see if there was any associated correlation, and there seems to be some worth watching. So the landscape, as it was discussed on Twitter, hypothesised that BTC/ETH will likely move from a. to b., then to c before breaking out toward the 1850 fib resistance. I feel aligned with this thinking, but I want to test a broader range of scenarios using this flag rather than blindly accepting Twitter theories (which are often very wrong!) My test cases are; If there will be a breakout at a. If b. holds or tanks If position c. will have a breakout at ~1290 Or if we continue downward into April 2023 before seeing any relief from this crypto winter (ego 'the real bottom') April isn't the bottom, and more movement down continues. I hope you'll follow along as I track the 5 scenarios How do you feel about this chart, by the way? Do you think the bottom is already in? Do you think the bottom will be worse than this? Would love to hear your thoughts.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Cryptoslothx
5
Difference Between Technical Analysis And Fundamental AnalysisHello Hello Traders , Please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments. Thank you very much. Here we go , I want to talk to your about the differences between Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis . Defination, Coin analysis is trying to make various predictions by examining the crypto money market and the price graph of the crypto money analyzed. By performing coin analysis, investors can anticipate risks and opportunities. In this way, investors can invest at the right time. If the price change in cryptocurrencies is analyzed correctly, taking into account environmental factors, it can make a profit in the changing and high-risk crypto money market. It depends on the luck factor that traders make profit or loss before analysis. How is Fundamental Analysis Done? There is no need for learning to do basic analysis. All of us who follow the market instantly can make fundamental analysis. Because what counts in fundamental analysis is research and attention. While doing the basic analysis, the economic situation of the global market, popular entrepreneurs and the point of view of the countries with strong economy are taken into account. At the same time, political competition in the world, the Coronavirus Pandemic and financial efficiency are also evaluated in the fundamental analysis process. How is Technical Analysis Done? If you want to do technical analysis, you need to know the charts. The sub-headings of technical analysis can be listed as; It is also necessary to have sufficient knowledge of terms such as support points, resistance points, ascending-descending trend, ascending channel, descending channel. Step 1 , For technical analysis, it is necessary to do market research first. There are important cases in the world in terms of economic and social aspects. This situation affects the markets as well as the prices of cryptocurrencies. One of the most important points of technical analysis is to know the supply and demand balance well. If demand increases, the price of cryptocurrencies rises. However, if the demand decreases and the supply increases, this time there will be a decrease in prices. Step 2 , Patterns are very important during technical analysis. Formations are formed by graphics. It helps us to determine the support and resistance points of cryptocurrencies with formations such as double top formation and double bottom formation. In this way, we can see the end or start point of a value. Thus, the downtrend or uptrend of cryptocurrencies occurs. Step 3 , Another important rule when doing technical analysis is indicators. Thanks to the indicators, we can identify the momentum and support/resistance points of the cryptocurrency. Indicators showing the connection between the two-way movements show us in which direction the medium and short-term trend may continue. Conclusion, In order to properly analyze coin, it is necessary to examine many factors and developments regularly and carefully. Examining one of the factors can make the trader profit, but it is most important to minimize the risk, to evaluate all the factors simultaneously. Even the trader who invests by considering all the data can make a loss as a result of a sudden development in the market. Despite all the techniques and predictions, the cryptocurrency market, like any investment, includes risk factors. I really hope it will be useful for you. Make big profits!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by vf_investment
8
HOW TO USE TECHNICAL INDICATORS TO MAKE PROFITS IN TRADING Always combine technical analysis with fundamental analysis Successful traders always combine the two types of analysis. This is because technical analysis tends to focus on the past events and fundamental analysis focuses on the present and future issues. In addition, there are certain situations where technical analysis will not provide adequate solutions. For instance, technical indicators are not programmed to predict the outcome. In such situations, it is important to rely on fundamental analysis and avoid the market because no one knows the exact number and how the market will react. Understand the indicators It is also important to understand the indicators to use. Different one have different ways of analysis. It is important for you to take time to learn these indicators and how they should set up. There are many learning materials which one can use to learn how the indicators work. I recommend that you take at least 2 months to learn the indicators using a demo account before using real money. Use Few Indicators As stated before, many traders make the sad mistake of using very many indicators at a go. Always remember that two is a company, three is a crowd. Traders who use more than two indicators at a go make mistakes because of poor visibility and poor market data interpretation. Therefore, I recommend that you use at most 2 indicators per trade. Patience In day trading, patience is an important aspect without which no trader can make it. In fact, some indicators are usually require more time before their predictions can come true. Following these tips, your indicator-trading will go to the next level. Do you agree with all these tips? Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
11
NZDUSD on RBNZ rates and monetary policy announcement, US minuteINTRO A rise of 75 basis points is the order of the day. Retail sales on Thursday may bring volatility to the Kiwi 0.62 (61.8% fibonacci) is the new resistance to beat FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Chinese economy continues to be impacted by COVID, impacting stocks and markets. The currency pair was affected by a slowdown in its gains as the U.S. dollar index found refuge for investors globally. There are several announcements today Tuesday that could bring volatility to the NZDUSD currency pair. Rates are expected to rise as markets see no slowdown in hawkish U.S. economic policy. European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said on Tuesday he had not yet decided to vote at the next rate-setting meeting in December, but would favor a 0.75 cent hike unless there was a significant improvement. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW Strong resistance has kiwi bulls frustrated. The confluence of EMA200 and the 0.62 level (61.8% Fibonacci) has investors considering a continuation of the call. The pair is up 12.5% ​​from a low of 0.55 hit in October. A bearish channel on the daily bar chart has been broken, but the uptrend could change due to expected volatility from the rate decision and Thursday's meeting minutes. Confirmation of the 0.60 level as support could lead the pair to seek resistance at 0.64 (50% Fibonacci).
by CRYPTONIA5
BITCOIN! History has a tendency to repeat itself.This is my view on #BITCOIN. Long-term I am LONG on CRYPTO but every bull-run has to end. Don't be the guy that took no profits from the bull-run. In this technical analysis, monthly chart is being used to see the bigger picture of what's currently going on with Bitcoin: 1. We can see that every bull-run ends with closure of one bearish monthly candle. 2. We can see that after monthly candle closes bearish, price tends to pullback to the point from where the bull-run started. 3. Also we can see that price respects and stays above 50-day exponential moving average. 4. We saw a bearish monthly candle close once again and price started to drop. 5. Fibonacci levels are being respected for now... and if price keep respecting Fibonacci levels we may see another drop to the 50-day exponential moving average that aligns perfectly with Fibonacci 1st target. Or even lower to the 2nd Fibonacci target which again aligns with the zone from where the bull-run started.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Matko_MJ
7
eu time for a breakoutits time for a breakout to the upside for euro vs dollar , with gu already leading this move and a super long dollar bullride that yet is begging for correction. I am expecting a break to the upside here. eu tried and failed a break of its current trend three times past 2 months. We are seeing another attempt right now with eu trading at the upper resistance of its bigger trend. stay tuned. this break, once confirmed, would also deliver us a new uptrend in eu.
Long
by MrKrft
2
#EURCHFanother similar selling opportunity like what we have on #EURJPY. again we have bearish impulsive which is followed by a corrective bullish move, showing that price have an intention of more downside move, but in order to do that price needs to take out liquidity from somewhere. so in order to short this pair following things need to happen: 1- price comes up to reach the arrow which also is a static resistance area 2- price fails to close above the arrow 3- lower timeframe price structure shift to bearish. ( in lower timeframe price fail to create HH or HL and turn downside)
Short
by mohemati
2
Future predictions (2023) Fundamental: The inflation havent reached consumers yet, we have had money (savings) from Covid. We will see more "cold" winter now, as the inflation finally starts to decrease the purchasing power. The inflation decreases but not quick enough and debt will be taken. There is a possibility to a bigger recession if the debt is too much for banking systems (Unemployment rate, rate of interest, inflation, credit quality) Technical: Top to bottom percentages (S&P 500, approx every decade) 28% 60s/50% 70s/36% 80s/20% 90s/50% 20s/57% 21s (average 40%. 27% now, we have reasons to go lower) These dates and prices are based on past, not super accurate, but with these there were least inconsistencies Based on human psychology and cycles we tend to have (bigger picture, decade and century cycle), we havent seen that much yet. We need bigger crisis or there will be next one coming, the cycle is in progress, there is "nothing" to recover from right now. Sorry about narrow analysis, I am not the type to write own analysis, also there is no words or pictures to describe the full database I have on my mind! Hopefully you still enjoy and comment your thoughts, Best regards: Malmberg Jami
SP:SPX
by SuomiJamppa
The two ways this plays out. Both are badHey there friends! As you can see, I have two resistance trendlines plotted. Both historically have been respected very reasonably. On top of this, id like to mention that my software that signals weakness in the market has been triggered. Although it doesnt 100% predict the absolute top, it does show where weakness is and you can see how it has preformed in the past. With this said, as we test the first of the 2 trendline resistances of this massive megaphone AND test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel, I expect some kind of retrace. The target would be assumed to be the bottom of the ascending channel, which would be 3836. From there we will see one of two things. Either a breakout of the ascending channel or a bounce from the support line to send us up to test the second of the resistance trendlines in the descending megaphone. If we bounce, im certain it will also test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel. This would line up to be on December 1st with a target of about 4110. If instead we breakout of the ascending channel when we head down, the target would be 3300 based purely on TA of the ascending channel. But i would like to mention that whenever we find a top, we reject -16.50% in 45 days (this has happened the last two times) If we go based on that the target would be more like 3200. Stay fluid friends. Were in for a volatile time
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pavley
How to select effective indicators for your strategyNot all indicators are useful: most are not, and some are downright misleading. Previous posts and studies, such as LuxAlgo's(1), determined that effective indicators need to: 1) produce data to support the trader's decision-making process, not substitute it with automated strategies, 2) produce non-redundant infos. But how do you select indicators in practice? Here, I share my own step-by-step process to select effective indicators for your strategy. My approach is to use a two-stages process: 1) Expansion, 2) Contraction. This is the same process that happens in our brains when they develop, first there is neuronal and synaptic expansion, creating lots of new connections that are not necessarily efficient, then there is contraction, which weeds out useless, redundant or ineffective connections. Here, the idea is similar. ## Expansion: try all the indicators you want ## In the first stage, you just try any indicator that sounds like an interesting idea. The way you select the indicators is up to you, either it can be because it sounds like a good idea, or because it's in line with your main strategy (eg, a volatility indicator when your strategy is contrarian). Whatever criteria you choose, you should: 1) Remain open to new types of indicators potentially outside your main field, as they can broaden your horizons, 2) Remain skeptic of any claims of effectiveness until you test the indicators and see tha they work for yourself (in the second stage: contraction), 3) Study the indicator to understand how it works and why it works. Don't just blindly use an indicator without knowing what it actually represents precisely, otherwise you will get bit by its limitations and false positives at some point in the future, likely when you will have a lot of money on the table to lose! Once you have selected a set of indicators, or if you have reached the maximum number of indicators you can add in your TradingView plan (as it happens to me!), then you can go to the next step to weed indicators out. ## Contraction: drop everything that isn't directly useful to you## In the second stage, we will extensively test the indicators for ourselves, on the assets we are interested in, and in others as well, to "field test" them and see if they work in our strategy. Indeed, trading and investment rely on a balance between collecting enough infos and keeping it simple enough (KISS principle(2)) to support our systematic decision-making process, without information overload which can produce decision paralysis. The contraction/filtering process is more involved than the first stage, because you have to do the manual, dirty work of testing, it takes time, but this is the only way you can see whether the indicator work as intended and that they work for you. No two people will use the same indicator the same way as I explain in another post (3), so bear in mind that some indicators that may not work for someone else may work for you, and inversely an indicator that works for someone else's strategy may not for you, so the popularity of an indicator is no indication of effectiveness. Here is a step-by-step outline of my process, feel free to add more steps depending on your needs: 1) Signal-to-Noise test: test on weekly and daily. If the indicator can't be reliable, can't produce good signals with low false positives and high true positives on these long timeframes that are much less noisy than shorter timeframes, then they are useless. Some people claim that there are indicators that work exclusively on lower timeframes, I am not trading such smaller timeframes although I can trade down to 15min, so your mileage may vary, but I remain yet to be convinced that this is true. 2) Redundancy test. If you already found a good indicator that works reasonably well for you, then compare any new indicator to this "best" indicator as a benchmark reference point. This will allow to weed out indicators that cannot provide new, non-redundant data. For example, in the chart of this post, I study correlations, which I compare against the signals generated by my RSI+ (alt) indicator which I consider one of my most reliable. Of course, the signal is of a different kind, but it still provides me a reference point as to whether the correlations can provide me with an additional edge or whether I should just stick to using only the RSI+ indicator. In practice, if the new indicator(s) can provide new, non redundant data, as shown by slightly different predictions in different scenarios or maybe a bit earlier, then great, I keep them. If not, for example the indicator does provide reliable info but it would lead me to take the same decisions at the same time, or worse, later than my best indicator, then I remove it. 3) Generalizabiliy test. Test on multiple markets, on mutiple timeframes, to check generalizability: if it doesn't generalize, the model is overfit on one target market's history, and this likely won't even work for the future if this same market, ie, this is an issue often encountered for models made specifically for bitcoin or ethereum. 4) Misleading test. Use bar replay, to check how the indicator behaves in realtime: does it sprout a lot of false positive in realtime, or is it as useful and predictive, or better, in real-time than when used for historical bars? Or worst being repainting indicators rewriting the past, such as pivots or zigzag, they look super accurate aposteriori but it's only because they cheat (see tradingview pinescript fage about that), using bar replay will help you detect them 100% of the time. Bar replay is one of the best tools you have to test indicators, don't underestimate it. Yes, it's time consuming, but it's well worth it, and you'll become quicker and quicker to use it over time with experience. For more information about the different types of repainting indicators, there is an excellent article in the PineScript documentation, it's worth reading even for non-coders(4). 5) Grouping and intra-class comparison. Finally, group indicators on the same study, so you can quickly answer a question eg about volume and volatility, or about market cycles, etc by checking the adequate chart. Otherwise, if you mix indicators between different charts, it will take you longer to analyze and compare the various signals. Also this allows to compare similar indicators between them to see if they really are useful, non-redundant. For example, in the chart above, it's a Correlations grouped study, so I added almost exclusively correlations indicators; while the delta-agnostic and (pearson) correlation coefficient both provide non-redundant infos, Spearman correlation and Kendall correlation indicators are redundant, although they shouldn't (they should capture non-linear relationships, whereas Pearson can only capture linear ones), their results aren't any different in practice with the pearson correlation coefficient in terms of significant signals they generate that would change my decision process, so we could drop two out of these three correlation coefficients, which would unclutter our chart without losing any data. ## Wrapping-up: continually refine your indicators ## At the end of the day, it's important to continually try to adapt to the markets. Indicators can continue working, while others may fail, or in the end you find them too difficult to use in practice with your strategy. Your strategy may also evolve over time, and so your indicators should too. Don't ever feel attached to your indicators, you can revisit and question their utility at anytime, and you can go through the steps above again, and drop any indicator at anytime, even if they were useful before, what matters is whether they are still useful now. There is also a next step for those who are open to learn programming: creating your own indicators. Not so much to create unique opportunities, although they might, but to better understand the market. You should view indicators as a way to better understand some facet of the market, indicators answer the specific questions their authors wanted to find an answer for. So by using indicators of other authors, you are reading the solutions to others questions. But you can also form your own questions, and then the next logical step is to develop your own indicators to find your own answers. And hopefully share them under open-source, so that we can all learn together (and this likely won't impact your profitability, to the contrary, as I explain elsewhere!(3)). In summary, we can quote Bruce Lee, who described a very similar process for his mastery of martial arts as he taught his own named Jeet Kune Do: "Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is essentially your own." I hope this post was useful to you, and if you have an idea of a criterion or a step you use to select indicators that I didn't list above, please share it in the comments! Enjoy, Trade Safely! Tartigradia (1): Technical indicators: what is useful and what isn't , by LuxAlgo (2): en.wikipedia.org (3): Why my indicators are open-source, and why yours should be too , by Tartigradia (4): Repainting — Pine Script™ v5 User Manual v5 documentation
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by tartigradia