S&P 500 @ 6 Dec 2022S&P 500 @ 6 December 2022
- Rejection of strong counter-trendline (orange line)
- Last night, tested the previous Head-and-Shoulder's (blue line) Neckline (red line)
If Index rebounds from here (and there's favourable news from the FOMC meeting on 15 Dec), we will likely see a break of the strong counter-trendline (blue arrow). I would be bullish for the mid-term.
If the current support breaks (red line), we might see the Index falling towards 3700-3800 levels again (red arrow).
Technical
The Impact of Economic Factors on the Stock MarketHi there! So, I heard that the economy is in a bit of a rough patch because the FED is raising rates, there's some quantitively tightening happening, and there's a potential recession on the horizon due to a supply shock from the Russia-Ukraine war and China's pandemic restrictions.
It looks like we might be heading into a recession, which is sooo not good news. The stock market will definitely be feeling the effects if the index falls below its moving average of 200 days. It's not looking great, I have to say. But don't worry, there are still ways to protect your investments. Some technical indicators you might want to keep an eye on include the relative strength index (RSI), the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, and the Bollinger bands. These can help you evaluate the strength of the current trend and potentially identify opportunities to buy or sell.
Also, outside the SPX index there are still ways to further protect your investments. For example, you might want to consider reducing your exposure to risky assets and increasing your holdings of safe-haven assets like government bonds. Just remember to stay positive and keep an eye on the market!
CADJPY BEARISH BIASCurrently on the 4HTF, price have been making a series of lower highs and lower lows which signifies a bearish trend, in conjunction with this also price is breaking structure and retesting it. So I'm looking forward for a retest of the previous support level before going lower to the recent support.
You can also share your view on this.
I'm open to ideas.
#Head&Shoulder chart pattern in action
Head and shoulder definition: A simple head and shoulders top formation is characterized by a peak representing
the left shoulder, followed by a higher peak which is referred to as the head of the formation. A lower peak representing the right shoulder is found on the right‐hand side of the head. The head should be the highest peak in the formation. The neckline is a trendline that connects the troughs that lie on either side of the head. Necklines may be horizontal or inclined which in our case is inclined. In an inverted head and shoulders formation (also referred to as a head and shoulders bottom), the head is the lowest
trough within the formation.
Head and shoulder pattern completion: The head and shoulders formation is completed with a valid breakout of the neckline Until a valid penetration has occurred, the formation is regarded as merely tentative. But as you can see in our case the pattern is completed since we can see upside breakout of the chart pattern neckline.
Head and shoulder pattern target: The minimum one‐to‐one price objective or target for a head and shoulders top formation is simply the vertical distance between the head and the neckline projected downward from the neckline breakout level. For an inverted head and shoulders formation, the vertical distance is projected upward from the neckline breakout level. You can see this vertical line in the chart.
Head and shoulder pattern entry:
■■ Short at a break of the right shoulder’s uptrend line with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head (see Point 1 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short at the peak of the right shoulder with a stop placed above the right shoulder or head, especially when there is a significant resistive confluence comprising of significant Fibonacci retracement levels, Floor Trader’s Pivot Point levels, and
psychologically important price levels associated with double and triple zeros
■■ Short at the right shoulder when it is testing the left shoulder’s resistance level, with a stop placed above the resistance level or head
■■ Short on a valid penetration of the neckline with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 2 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on a retest of the neckline after a valid penetration with a stop placed above the neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 3 in Figure 13.9)
■■ Short on the penetration of the price associated with the trough created by the retest action, with a stop placed above the trough, neckline, right shoulder, or head (see Point 4 in Figure 13.9)
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Source: the handbook of technical analysis by Mark Andrew Lim
Dow Jones Industrial Average - higher for longerNew analysts claim that the S&P 500 provides a better picture of the markets compared to the Dow. Although the S&P 500 obviously has a larger catalog, the Dow is a direct reflection of international capital flows. Look toward the Dow to see where big money is moving.
The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index. The NASDAQ typically reflects retail, tech-heavy, and usually is the last to the peak. Each index offers a completely different perspective. The Dow Jones Industrials is the big money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital that comes in based on currency. You will also notice the Dow tends to top out first because the big money tends to pull out first also due to currency.
Capital is flowing like never before, and the smart money is on the move. The USD remains the last safe haven, and money is pouring into the US – for now. Look to the Dow for the best international perspective. ©Martin Armstrong
The trend is higher on the DJIA and stops are being trailed to lock in profits. The PA has taken out the August highs and is now looking for liquidity above the double top around March 2022. The idea is always to look to buy a high and sell higher. I would expect the rest of the major US indices to follow suit.
GU BIAS: SHORT; ANALYSIS CHART: H1 & H4Hello traders, I believe some of you lost money yesterday thinking the cable would continue the bullish move, but unfortunately, the cable changed the direction.
Today, the question is, will the cable continue the down move? Yes, there is an 85% probability that the pair could down to the level of 1.19418 or below. The bearish reversal signal is expected from the level of 1.20295. I think a resistance zone Is expected to occur around this level. I mean fake out, big banks, and smart money manipulation for the stop-loss hunt. Be careful when selling there. Look for the opportunity to sell from this level in the H1 or the smaller timeframe like M15 or M5.
Finally, we remain bearish in the cable market as long as the price is below the trendline.
EUR / USD Bullish Narrative in 2023FX:EURUSD
Better economic growth than expected (EU area)
Energy crisis is politically postponed to winter 2024
Hawkish ECB stance: Not particularly aggressive, but certainly longer lasting than the Fed
Fed slows pace of rate hikes signaled by FOMC dot plots
Undervalued versus other currencies
Extreme dollar long positioning
ETH Bottom in April 2023?I haven't made a post in some time - namely because I wanted to let the FTX issue settle. It's interesting times on Twitter, sentiment is overall bearish, and it's hard to make heads or tails of the market at the moment, given the ongoing threat of multiple liquidations of ETH and BTC from the FTX hacker. Furthermore, at any point where we see some recovery, we end up seeing a more challenging step down, hurting a lot of investors in the short term who may be short on liquidity and fearful of recession or ongoing inflation challenges. I searched for some time to understand why this was happening and found an idea I wanted to track and test.
** Disclaimer** I'm a novice trader working to put my thoughts out there to see how they stack up against the market - please feel free to share/comment on my studies - please don't use this chart as financial advice
The assessment highlighted a flag on the 3D (translates to 1W and 1D charts, too) time band, which clarified the movements of BTC and ETH recently (I'm tracking ETH as my preferred coin). I saw this flag set-up being discussed on Twitter and was compelled to follow it. It shows a deep falling bullish wedge (off the bull run's peak) with an approximate end point of April 2023 - to my surprise, it seems to be holding up well against the price movement of BTC and ETH. After setting my chart up to align with the discussion I found on Twitter, I added the fib retracement to see if there was any associated correlation, and there seems to be some worth watching.
So the landscape, as it was discussed on Twitter, hypothesised that BTC/ETH will likely move from a. to b., then to c before breaking out toward the 1850 fib resistance. I feel aligned with this thinking, but I want to test a broader range of scenarios using this flag rather than blindly accepting Twitter theories (which are often very wrong!)
My test cases are;
If there will be a breakout at a.
If b. holds or tanks
If position c. will have a breakout at ~1290
Or if we continue downward into April 2023 before seeing any relief from this crypto winter (ego 'the real bottom')
April isn't the bottom, and more movement down continues.
I hope you'll follow along as I track the 5 scenarios
How do you feel about this chart, by the way? Do you think the bottom is already in? Do you think the bottom will be worse than this? Would love to hear your thoughts.
Silver Bullish Outlook for 2023COMEX:SI1!
Deficit in Supply
Inflation Hedge
Weaker Dollar is plus
Huge performance divergence to Gold. Possible catch up ?
Silver demand is forecasted to double
Historically cheap
Industrial use increases
Long term buying opportunity with a first price target of ~30 $
Difference Between Technical Analysis And Fundamental AnalysisHello Hello Traders ,
Please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments.
Thank you very much.
Here we go ,
I want to talk to your about the differences between Fundamental analysis and Technical analysis .
Defination,
Coin analysis is trying to make various predictions by examining the crypto money market and the price graph of the crypto money analyzed. By performing coin analysis, investors can anticipate risks and opportunities. In this way, investors can invest at the right time.
If the price change in cryptocurrencies is analyzed correctly, taking into account environmental factors, it can make a profit in the changing and high-risk crypto money market. It depends on the luck factor that traders make profit or loss before analysis.
How is Fundamental Analysis Done?
There is no need for learning to do basic analysis. All of us who follow the market instantly can make fundamental analysis. Because what counts in fundamental analysis is research and attention. While doing the basic analysis, the economic situation of the global market, popular entrepreneurs and the point of view of the countries with strong economy are taken into account. At the same time, political competition in the world, the Coronavirus Pandemic and financial efficiency are also evaluated in the fundamental analysis process.
How is Technical Analysis Done?
If you want to do technical analysis, you need to know the charts. The sub-headings of technical analysis can be listed as; It is also necessary to have sufficient knowledge of terms such as support points, resistance points, ascending-descending trend, ascending channel, descending channel.
Step 1 ,
For technical analysis, it is necessary to do market research first. There are important cases in the world in terms of economic and social aspects. This situation affects the markets as well as the prices of cryptocurrencies. One of the most important points of technical analysis is to know the supply and demand balance well. If demand increases, the price of cryptocurrencies rises. However, if the demand decreases and the supply increases, this time there will be a decrease in prices.
Step 2 ,
Patterns are very important during technical analysis. Formations are formed by graphics. It helps us to determine the support and resistance points of cryptocurrencies with formations such as double top formation and double bottom formation. In this way, we can see the end or start point of a value. Thus, the downtrend or uptrend of cryptocurrencies occurs.
Step 3 ,
Another important rule when doing technical analysis is indicators. Thanks to the indicators, we can identify the momentum and support/resistance points of the cryptocurrency. Indicators showing the connection between the two-way movements show us in which direction the medium and short-term trend may continue.
Conclusion,
In order to properly analyze coin, it is necessary to examine many factors and developments regularly and carefully. Examining one of the factors can make the trader profit, but it is most important to minimize the risk, to evaluate all the factors simultaneously. Even the trader who invests by considering all the data can make a loss as a result of a sudden development in the market. Despite all the techniques and predictions, the cryptocurrency market, like any investment, includes risk factors.
I really hope it will be useful for you.
Make big profits!
HOW TO USE TECHNICAL INDICATORS TO MAKE PROFITS IN TRADING
Always combine technical analysis with fundamental analysis
Successful traders always combine the two types of analysis. This is because technical analysis tends to focus on the past events and fundamental analysis focuses on the present and future issues.
In addition, there are certain situations where technical analysis will not provide adequate solutions. For instance, technical indicators are not programmed to predict the outcome.
In such situations, it is important to rely on fundamental analysis and avoid the market because no one knows the exact number and how the market will react.
Understand the indicators
It is also important to understand the indicators to use. Different one have different ways of analysis.
It is important for you to take time to learn these indicators and how they should set up. There are many learning materials which one can use to learn how the indicators work.
I recommend that you take at least 2 months to learn the indicators using a demo account before using real money.
Use Few Indicators
As stated before, many traders make the sad mistake of using very many indicators at a go. Always remember that two is a company, three is a crowd.
Traders who use more than two indicators at a go make mistakes because of poor visibility and poor market data interpretation.
Therefore, I recommend that you use at most 2 indicators per trade.
Patience
In day trading, patience is an important aspect without which no trader can make it. In fact, some indicators are usually require more time before their predictions can come true.
Following these tips, your indicator-trading will go to the next level.
Do you agree with all these tips?
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
NZDUSD on RBNZ rates and monetary policy announcement, US minuteINTRO
A rise of 75 basis points is the order of the day.
Retail sales on Thursday may bring volatility to the Kiwi
0.62 (61.8% fibonacci) is the new resistance to beat
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
The Chinese economy continues to be impacted by COVID, impacting stocks and markets. The currency pair was affected by a slowdown in its gains as the U.S. dollar index found refuge for investors globally. There are several announcements today Tuesday that could bring volatility to the NZDUSD currency pair. Rates are expected to rise as markets see no slowdown in hawkish U.S. economic policy.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said on Tuesday he had not yet decided to vote at the next rate-setting meeting in December, but would favor a 0.75 cent hike unless there was a significant improvement.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
Strong resistance has kiwi bulls frustrated. The confluence of EMA200 and the 0.62 level (61.8% Fibonacci) has investors considering a continuation of the call. The pair is up 12.5% from a low of 0.55 hit in October. A bearish channel on the daily bar chart has been broken, but the uptrend could change due to expected volatility from the rate decision and Thursday's meeting minutes. Confirmation of the 0.60 level as support could lead the pair to seek resistance at 0.64 (50% Fibonacci).