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eu time for a breakoutits time for a breakout to the upside for euro vs dollar , with gu already leading this move and a super long dollar bullride that yet is begging for correction. I am expecting a break to the upside here. eu tried and failed a break of its current trend three times past 2 months. We are seeing another attempt right now with eu trading at the upper resistance of its bigger trend. stay tuned. this break, once confirmed, would also deliver us a new uptrend in eu.
Long
by MrKrft
2
#EURCHFanother similar selling opportunity like what we have on #EURJPY. again we have bearish impulsive which is followed by a corrective bullish move, showing that price have an intention of more downside move, but in order to do that price needs to take out liquidity from somewhere. so in order to short this pair following things need to happen: 1- price comes up to reach the arrow which also is a static resistance area 2- price fails to close above the arrow 3- lower timeframe price structure shift to bearish. ( in lower timeframe price fail to create HH or HL and turn downside)
Short
by mohemati
2
Future predictions (2023) Fundamental: The inflation havent reached consumers yet, we have had money (savings) from Covid. We will see more "cold" winter now, as the inflation finally starts to decrease the purchasing power. The inflation decreases but not quick enough and debt will be taken. There is a possibility to a bigger recession if the debt is too much for banking systems (Unemployment rate, rate of interest, inflation, credit quality) Technical: Top to bottom percentages (S&P 500, approx every decade) 28% 60s/50% 70s/36% 80s/20% 90s/50% 20s/57% 21s (average 40%. 27% now, we have reasons to go lower) These dates and prices are based on past, not super accurate, but with these there were least inconsistencies Based on human psychology and cycles we tend to have (bigger picture, decade and century cycle), we havent seen that much yet. We need bigger crisis or there will be next one coming, the cycle is in progress, there is "nothing" to recover from right now. Sorry about narrow analysis, I am not the type to write own analysis, also there is no words or pictures to describe the full database I have on my mind! Hopefully you still enjoy and comment your thoughts, Best regards: Malmberg Jami
SP:SPX
by SuomiJamppa
The two ways this plays out. Both are badHey there friends! As you can see, I have two resistance trendlines plotted. Both historically have been respected very reasonably. On top of this, id like to mention that my software that signals weakness in the market has been triggered. Although it doesnt 100% predict the absolute top, it does show where weakness is and you can see how it has preformed in the past. With this said, as we test the first of the 2 trendline resistances of this massive megaphone AND test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel, I expect some kind of retrace. The target would be assumed to be the bottom of the ascending channel, which would be 3836. From there we will see one of two things. Either a breakout of the ascending channel or a bounce from the support line to send us up to test the second of the resistance trendlines in the descending megaphone. If we bounce, im certain it will also test the resistance trendline of the ascending channel. This would line up to be on December 1st with a target of about 4110. If instead we breakout of the ascending channel when we head down, the target would be 3300 based purely on TA of the ascending channel. But i would like to mention that whenever we find a top, we reject -16.50% in 45 days (this has happened the last two times) If we go based on that the target would be more like 3200. Stay fluid friends. Were in for a volatile time
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pavley
How to select effective indicators for your strategyNot all indicators are useful: most are not, and some are downright misleading. Previous posts and studies, such as LuxAlgo's(1), determined that effective indicators need to: 1) produce data to support the trader's decision-making process, not substitute it with automated strategies, 2) produce non-redundant infos. But how do you select indicators in practice? Here, I share my own step-by-step process to select effective indicators for your strategy. My approach is to use a two-stages process: 1) Expansion, 2) Contraction. This is the same process that happens in our brains when they develop, first there is neuronal and synaptic expansion, creating lots of new connections that are not necessarily efficient, then there is contraction, which weeds out useless, redundant or ineffective connections. Here, the idea is similar. ## Expansion: try all the indicators you want ## In the first stage, you just try any indicator that sounds like an interesting idea. The way you select the indicators is up to you, either it can be because it sounds like a good idea, or because it's in line with your main strategy (eg, a volatility indicator when your strategy is contrarian). Whatever criteria you choose, you should: 1) Remain open to new types of indicators potentially outside your main field, as they can broaden your horizons, 2) Remain skeptic of any claims of effectiveness until you test the indicators and see tha they work for yourself (in the second stage: contraction), 3) Study the indicator to understand how it works and why it works. Don't just blindly use an indicator without knowing what it actually represents precisely, otherwise you will get bit by its limitations and false positives at some point in the future, likely when you will have a lot of money on the table to lose! Once you have selected a set of indicators, or if you have reached the maximum number of indicators you can add in your TradingView plan (as it happens to me!), then you can go to the next step to weed indicators out. ## Contraction: drop everything that isn't directly useful to you## In the second stage, we will extensively test the indicators for ourselves, on the assets we are interested in, and in others as well, to "field test" them and see if they work in our strategy. Indeed, trading and investment rely on a balance between collecting enough infos and keeping it simple enough (KISS principle(2)) to support our systematic decision-making process, without information overload which can produce decision paralysis. The contraction/filtering process is more involved than the first stage, because you have to do the manual, dirty work of testing, it takes time, but this is the only way you can see whether the indicator work as intended and that they work for you. No two people will use the same indicator the same way as I explain in another post (3), so bear in mind that some indicators that may not work for someone else may work for you, and inversely an indicator that works for someone else's strategy may not for you, so the popularity of an indicator is no indication of effectiveness. Here is a step-by-step outline of my process, feel free to add more steps depending on your needs: 1) Signal-to-Noise test: test on weekly and daily. If the indicator can't be reliable, can't produce good signals with low false positives and high true positives on these long timeframes that are much less noisy than shorter timeframes, then they are useless. Some people claim that there are indicators that work exclusively on lower timeframes, I am not trading such smaller timeframes although I can trade down to 15min, so your mileage may vary, but I remain yet to be convinced that this is true. 2) Redundancy test. If you already found a good indicator that works reasonably well for you, then compare any new indicator to this "best" indicator as a benchmark reference point. This will allow to weed out indicators that cannot provide new, non-redundant data. For example, in the chart of this post, I study correlations, which I compare against the signals generated by my RSI+ (alt) indicator which I consider one of my most reliable. Of course, the signal is of a different kind, but it still provides me a reference point as to whether the correlations can provide me with an additional edge or whether I should just stick to using only the RSI+ indicator. In practice, if the new indicator(s) can provide new, non redundant data, as shown by slightly different predictions in different scenarios or maybe a bit earlier, then great, I keep them. If not, for example the indicator does provide reliable info but it would lead me to take the same decisions at the same time, or worse, later than my best indicator, then I remove it. 3) Generalizabiliy test. Test on multiple markets, on mutiple timeframes, to check generalizability: if it doesn't generalize, the model is overfit on one target market's history, and this likely won't even work for the future if this same market, ie, this is an issue often encountered for models made specifically for bitcoin or ethereum. 4) Misleading test. Use bar replay, to check how the indicator behaves in realtime: does it sprout a lot of false positive in realtime, or is it as useful and predictive, or better, in real-time than when used for historical bars? Or worst being repainting indicators rewriting the past, such as pivots or zigzag, they look super accurate aposteriori but it's only because they cheat (see tradingview pinescript fage about that), using bar replay will help you detect them 100% of the time. Bar replay is one of the best tools you have to test indicators, don't underestimate it. Yes, it's time consuming, but it's well worth it, and you'll become quicker and quicker to use it over time with experience. For more information about the different types of repainting indicators, there is an excellent article in the PineScript documentation, it's worth reading even for non-coders(4). 5) Grouping and intra-class comparison. Finally, group indicators on the same study, so you can quickly answer a question eg about volume and volatility, or about market cycles, etc by checking the adequate chart. Otherwise, if you mix indicators between different charts, it will take you longer to analyze and compare the various signals. Also this allows to compare similar indicators between them to see if they really are useful, non-redundant. For example, in the chart above, it's a Correlations grouped study, so I added almost exclusively correlations indicators; while the delta-agnostic and (pearson) correlation coefficient both provide non-redundant infos, Spearman correlation and Kendall correlation indicators are redundant, although they shouldn't (they should capture non-linear relationships, whereas Pearson can only capture linear ones), their results aren't any different in practice with the pearson correlation coefficient in terms of significant signals they generate that would change my decision process, so we could drop two out of these three correlation coefficients, which would unclutter our chart without losing any data. ## Wrapping-up: continually refine your indicators ## At the end of the day, it's important to continually try to adapt to the markets. Indicators can continue working, while others may fail, or in the end you find them too difficult to use in practice with your strategy. Your strategy may also evolve over time, and so your indicators should too. Don't ever feel attached to your indicators, you can revisit and question their utility at anytime, and you can go through the steps above again, and drop any indicator at anytime, even if they were useful before, what matters is whether they are still useful now. There is also a next step for those who are open to learn programming: creating your own indicators. Not so much to create unique opportunities, although they might, but to better understand the market. You should view indicators as a way to better understand some facet of the market, indicators answer the specific questions their authors wanted to find an answer for. So by using indicators of other authors, you are reading the solutions to others questions. But you can also form your own questions, and then the next logical step is to develop your own indicators to find your own answers. And hopefully share them under open-source, so that we can all learn together (and this likely won't impact your profitability, to the contrary, as I explain elsewhere!(3)). In summary, we can quote Bruce Lee, who described a very similar process for his mastery of martial arts as he taught his own named Jeet Kune Do: "Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is essentially your own." I hope this post was useful to you, and if you have an idea of a criterion or a step you use to select indicators that I didn't list above, please share it in the comments! Enjoy, Trade Safely! Tartigradia (1): Technical indicators: what is useful and what isn't , by LuxAlgo (2): en.wikipedia.org (3): Why my indicators are open-source, and why yours should be too , by Tartigradia (4): Repainting — Pine Script™ v5 User Manual v5 documentation
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by tartigradia
Swing Trade: Beyond Technical Analysisforex trading is one that can be intimidating to the average person. However, if you take the time to learn how to become a great trader, then you will be able to make money without all the stress and effort that comes with trading stocks or other financial markets. I can teach you how to use technical analysis to make predictions in 5 hours. The offer goes for $500! Entry: 1.77519 Stop: 30 pips Take Profit: On the chart, you will see points 1, 2, and, 3. These are your exit points.
Long
by iamspirit_io
💁‍♂️ ETHUSDT / 12H HI Everyone 🙂 As you can see, the current price is $1622. Considering that the price has been revised from the range of $1680. The desired support area can be considered $1550/$1500. It is very important to maintain the support area of $1550/$1500 to continue the positive trend. If the desired area is not supported. This scenario will no longer be valid.💹 THE Resistances Are... $1680/$1750/$1790/$1870/$1950/$2000❗❗❗ (DYOR)🌟 what do you think about ETH?? if you like my analysis please like & comment ✌🙏
by SasanSeifi
XAUUSD potential movement and entry1) NEWS TO NOTE: THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND THE BANK OF ENGLAND INCREASED INTEREST RATES BY 0.75% EACH WHICH STRENGTHENED USD AND GBP WHICH IS BAD NEWS FOR GOLD. JEROME POWELL (CHAIRMAN OF FEDERAL RESERVE GAVE A VERY HAWKISH SPEECH A COUPLE DAYS AGO IN WHICH HE AFFIRMED THAT INTEREST RATES WILL BE RISING WHICH ALSO STRENGTHENED USD) TODAY (FRIDAY 4TH) US NONFARM PAYROLLS CAME OUT WITH BETTER THEN EXPECTED DATA ABOUT US EMPLOYMENT MORE EMPLOYMENT →MORE PEOPLE IN ECONOMY →MORE MONEY IN CIRCULATION →MORE INFLATION → MORE REASON FOR FED TO INCREASE INTEREST RATES → STRONGER USD → WEAKER XAUUSD 2) UPCOMING NEWS TO NOTE: THURSDAY 10TH NOVEMBER CPI (upcoming September US inflation report) →THIS WILL EFFECT GOLD BECAUSE IT EFFECTS USD Stubborn readings could translate into sustained elevation in Feds rate hike odds (sustained higher interest rates). While this would be good news for the US Dollar, it will likely be bad news for US stocks and gold prices. 3) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS I expect the price to have a short drawback towards the primary resistance line, however, the primary resistance line (top resistance line) is unlikely to be tested (touched by price) due to the bullish momentum of gold. Then I expect gold to continue on its uptrend. If the primary resistance line is tested, it would be an excellent entry with a risk to reward of 1:2. If it is not tested, i wouldn't advise a buy order, unless there is candle patterns and chart patterns which suggest a strong bullish momentum (for example a engulfing candle or a 3.82 candle or a close above candle. In the past couple of days there has been higher lows and higher highs however this is only intraday, and over a bigger time-frame gold is bearish. Notes: PlEASE GIVE ME FEEDBACK I WOULD APPRECIATE IT SO MUCH TRADE WITH CAUTION HAVE A GOOD DAY THANKS SNIPER
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by haadimilli
2
3 potential outcomesHey Dogers! Gaps need to be closed between 12 and 6 cents If we don't dip into the blue box to close those gaps now, we will likely break 16 cents on the climb to ~20 cents at the 0.5 FIB before falling down Bull: extend to 20 cents, pull back to 16, extend to ~32 and beyond? Balanced: Consolidate around 8-9 cents (bottom of the blue box) meaning ups n downs with lower highs around 14 and higher lows in the 6-7 cent range Bear: Drop to test 4.9, pull back to ~11, fall down to ~0.1 0.2 I think the bull case is most likely in the short term, lasting to the end of the year. We are coming off a multi month bear side, we should see a few weeks of consolidation before more volatility.
by pokp
2
Educational Series: Trading with Bollinger Bands (Part 3)The last feature of the Bollinger Band involves a slight addition to the standard indicator. Another set of Bollinger Band is added, but this time, a 0.75 standard deviation is used (instead of the 2 standard deviations). The 0.75 standard deviations Bollinger Band is indicated by the black lines. Now, look at the space between the 2 standard deviations and 0.75 standard deviations Bollinger Band. This is indicated by the white space. When price trades within the white space, I'd call it the Bollinger Trend. What you should notice is that - When the price trades within the white space, it enters into a trending scenario. - A dynamic channel is formed, with the Bollinger Bands providing the diagonal support/resistance levels. - When the price breaks through the 0.75 standard deviation Bollinger Band and moves towards the moving average, the trend ceases. The Bollinger Trend is not easy to use UNLESS - You pair it with key support/ resistance level - Apply this only to the H1 or H4 timeframe - Deploy a trailing Stop Loss, BUT Take Profit must be fixed
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by JinDao_Tai
1
Educational Series: Trading with Bollinger Bands (Part 2)The Bollinger Reversal is my absolute favorite and most valuable perspective of the Bollinger Bands. Have you ever - seen the price move strongly in a direction, but the moment you get into a trade, the price reverses almost immediately? or - held on to a profitable trade, hoping to hit a take-profit level, only to see your profits whittle away as the price reverses. The Bollinger Band can help prevent 1) FOMO leading to Late Entry and 2) Greed leading to Late Exit Look at the yellow spots on the charts - The spots indicate when the price had traded outside of the 2std deviation of the Bollinger Band (either the lower or the upper bound). - When the price trades outside of the Bollinger Band, two things are highly likely to happen : 1) the price reverses back before the current candle loses , leading to possibly the development of a pin bar (which usually signals a strong reversal candlestick pattern). 2) the price closes outside of the Bollinger Band and the subsequent candle is a strong retracement , back toward the Moving Average and possibly a stronger reversal. The Bollinger Reversal can be applied to ANY timeframe (M1 through to D1) When the price is outside of the Bollinger Band, you should choose to avoid entering a trade , as the price is likely to reverse. And if you are currently in a trade, and the price has broken out of the Bollinger Band, you might want to consider securing the profit . However, some more aggressive traders could even choose to trade the short-term reversal. Remember.... - This is a technical indicator. You shouldn't use technical indicators solely. - Combine it with other forms of analysis, Price Action, Fundamental Analysis, Sentiment, and Other types of indicators. The more confluences you can have, the more confidence you will have
Education
by JinDao_Tai