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XAU/USD – Gold Analysis Using MMC & Structural Mapping + Target🔎 Market Narrative: Today’s GOLD analysis is crafted through the lens of Mirror Market Concepts (MMC)—a powerful strategy where historical price behavior is mirrored in the current chart structure. This is combined with traditional structural analysis, offering a clear view of current price behavior, key breakouts, and target levels. We’re currently seeing an interesting scenario unfold where the market structure is shifting from bearish to bullish, aligning with mirrored reactions from previous key zones. 🧠 MMC Breakdown & Price Psychology: 🔄 Mirror Reaction: Notice how the market mirrored a previous aggressive sell-off with a similar bullish recovery. This “reflection” is a hallmark of MMC—where market sentiment repeats itself, but in opposite directions. The "Previous Targets" zone acted as a key SR Interchange (support-turned-resistance / resistance-turned-support). Price dropped into this zone and bounced with strong bullish momentum, signaling smart money accumulation or potential liquidity grab before reversal. 🧱 Structural Analysis: 🔹 Trendline Observation: A key trendline (drawn from the recent swing highs) was clearly broken, confirming that the bearish structure has shifted into a bullish one. The breakout was followed by a retest, further strengthening the validity of this move. 🔹 Support/Resistance Flip (SR Interchange Zone): The Blue Ray zone marked on the chart is critical. This area held as support in the past and again acted as a launchpad for the recent upside move. 🔹 Previous Targets Reclaimed: After hitting the previous support zone, price reversed sharply—another MMC principle in play. These zones often serve as liquidity magnets and reaction zones, where institutional traders are active. 📍 Key Levels To Watch: ✅ Current Support: $3,289–$3,295 (Previously broken resistance, now acting as support) 🎯 Immediate Target Zone: $3,310–$3,320 (This is where the price is expected to face short-term resistance. If broken, the next mirror move could extend further.) 🔻 Trendline Confirmation Level: $3,296 (Holding above this confirms bullish bias short-term) 🛠️ Trading Plan / Bias: Bias: Bullish Entry Idea: Look for bullish continuation above $3,296 after minor consolidation or retest Risk Management: Place stop-loss just below $3,289 (previous demand zone) Take-Profit: $3,310 – $3,320 zone initially ⚠️ Risk Consideration: Gold can be volatile, especially during news events. Always assess macroeconomic factors (like Fed policy, NFP, CPI, etc.) and manage your trades with solid risk-to-reward ratios. 🧠 Final Thoughts: This chart is a great example of how Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) can work hand-in-hand with price action and structure to provide clean, repeatable setups. By understanding the psychology behind price mirroring, we can better anticipate turning points and entry zones—especially when the structure confirms it. Whether you’re a day trader or swing trader, this concept adds a layer of confluence to your technical analysis toolkit.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
EGX30 Increases by 0.62%EGX30 stock has jumped to an upper region, and it's apparent that this has been a gradual upward trend due to a mutual connection between positive fundamental news and the technical candlestick analysis. It has already breached the resistance line of 32,621.248 and reached the maximum at 32,695.736 points. On a personal level, I expect it to rebound not because of any negative news but because of taking into consideration the short-term history patterns. In case of rebounding, it may reach the support line 32,536.119, the support line 32,408.426, then the support line 32,376.503. In conclusion, EGX30 is increasing in the pink region by 0.62%.
EGX:EGX30
by RowaynaAhmed
KO 1D — A Diamond Not Yet Broken, But Already CrackingOn the daily chart of Coca-Cola, a classic diamond top structure is forming — not yet completed, but clearly visible. The market expanded its range in the initial stage, then began to compress into a tighter zone, creating the typical shape of a diamond. This isn’t a continuation pattern — it’s the setup phase for redistribution. The key level sits at $68.50 — the base of the diamond. As long as this line holds, the pattern remains inactive. But current price behavior says more than enough: weakening momentum, falling volume, and a lack of aggressive follow-through on recent highs. This isn’t accumulation — it’s preparation. Price is currently trading between the MA50 and MA200, signaling a neutral phase with downside risk. The moving averages are narrowing, but no crossover has occurred yet. That’s critical — the trend isn’t broken, but it’s clearly losing energy. If $68.50 gives way, the measured move from the pattern projects a decline toward $61.82. From a fundamental standpoint, Coca-Cola remains stable — but uninspiring. Earnings met expectations, revenue was steady, and no major catalysts are visible. In this type of environment, technical structure often becomes the tool for institutional rotation — not because the story collapsed, but because the setup makes sense. The edges of the diamond are in place. All that’s missing is the break. If the neckline fails, the downside scenario is already built — structurally and logically.
NYSE:KOShort
by TotoshkaTrades
EUR/CHF Triangle Setup- Breakout or Breakdown ImminentThe EUR/CHF pair is currently consolidating within a triangle pattern on the 1-hour chart. This type of pattern typically forms when neither buyers nor sellers are in full control, leading to a tightening price range between descending resistance and ascending or flat support. In this case, the resistance trendline (marked in red) is sloping downward, while the support zone (highlighted in green) remains relatively flat around the 0.9330–0.9335 region. The repeated tests of both resistance and support lines suggest that a major breakout or breakdown is likely approaching. The height of the triangle (measured from the initial impulse move) provides the basis for projecting potential breakout and breakdown targets. 🔼 Breakout Scenario (Bullish): If price breaks above the descending resistance line, especially with volume confirmation, it may trigger a bullish move toward the breakout target of 0.9406. This level is calculated by adding the height of the triangle to the breakout point. Traders could look for buying opportunities upon breakout with stops placed below the breakout candle or just under the triangle. 🔽 Breakdown Scenario (Bearish): Alternatively, if price breaks below the flat support zone, a bearish continuation is expected, targeting 0.9281, which is derived by subtracting the triangle's height from the breakdown level. This would indicate sellers regaining control, and the pair may revisit recent swing lows. A breakdown with strong bearish candles would validate this move. 📌 Strategy Notes: This is a neutral-to-directional setup, meaning traders should wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown before entering. Volatility contraction inside the triangle typically precedes an explosive move. Entry can be taken post-breakout with volume, or with a retest of the broken trendline for confirmation. =============================================================== Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
by TradZoo
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 30/05/2025Nifty is expected to open flat around the 24800–24850 range. The market has shown signs of recovery from lower levels, and if it manages to hold above the 24800–24850 support zone, we can expect a continuation of upward momentum. In that case, possible intraday upside targets are 24900, 24950, and a breakout beyond 25000 could extend the rally toward 25150, 25200, and 25250+ levels. However, if Nifty fails to sustain above 24800 and faces resistance near 24900–24950, a pullback may occur. A confirmed breakdown below 24700 would signal weakness and could trigger a fresh round of selling. In such a scenario, downside targets would be 24650, 24600, and possibly 24550. Today’s session may start off sideways with consolidation between key levels. Wait for clear confirmation above 24850 for longs or below 24700 for shorts. Keep trailing your stop-loss and book partial profits near every target zone.
NSE:NIFTY
by TradZoo
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🤝 Debt-Ceiling Deal Advances The U.S. House passed a bipartisan framework extending the federal borrowing limit through September, easing immediate default fears and lifting risk assets. 📉 Bond Yields Retreat After surging above 4.6% earlier this week, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped back toward 4.5%, helping equities recover from recent rate-driven pullbacks. ⛽ Oil Inventories Jump API data showed a 5.2 million-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks last week, sending oil prices lower and weighing on energy sector names. 🚗 Tesla Price Cut Spurs EV Rally Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) cut Model 3 prices by 3% in the U.S., igniting a broader EV stock rally as investors priced in renewed demand ahead of summer driving season. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Friday, May 30: 8:30 AM ET: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April Measures core inflation trends—Fed’s preferred gauge of consumer-price pressures. 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales for April Tracks signed contracts on existing homes; a leading indicator for the housing market. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$LISTA at Key Support – Long Opportunity Loading?$LISTA looks good to long here with a short SL🚀 It is approaching a key confluence support zone right at the 0.382 Fib level (~0.2460), the rising trendline, and the 100EMA on the 12H chart. This level held well in the last move and could once again act as the launchpad for a bullish breakout toward $0.30–$0.33. But if it breaks below this support zone, short-term momentum could shift. Watch how the price reacts here👀 BINANCE:LISTAUSDT
Long
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
NVDA: Ascending triangle break, bull flag on S/R retestHey traders! I'm back and once again, I've spent almost the whole evening (lol) trying to figure out the odd, strange price action we've seen from NASDAQ:NVDA over the past few weeks, and especially today! As we all know (I assume), Nvidia failed to disappoint on earnings once again, and we saw a HUGE gap up overnight, as far as up to the $143 mark. However, we soon began to see a dip. That's fair, as traders will likely sell and take profit. However, the dip became a larger dip, and Nvidia finished the day basically at 3.2%. But it seems that the pullback may been pretty healthy. Because as you can see from the chart, Nvidia has been forming an ascending triangle ever since the 14th May. That was after the sweet run it had prior to that. It has tested the £136-137 area as a major resistance line ever since until finally, a strong earnings report sent Nvidia above the line. After the gap up, throughout the day, the stock went into a controlled, composed downward channel which what we like to call, a bull flag. This is taking into consideration market hours, not extended hours. This bull flag is bullish in its own way, but it is also a sign of a retest of the $136-137 resistance zone. This is officially a support zone now. A successful retest from this support zone will cause a bounce, especially from the support trendline, and likely send the stock towards $140+, possibly extending its reach to $150 if broader market strength (Nasdaq) continues. On the contrary, a dip below the support line and a crash below the red support trendline, would likely send the stock lower to $133 as next support. As long as Nvidia maintains $136-137, the bulls are in control. Note: Not financial advice. Please do your DD.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by michaeldobski
USDJPY Faces An Intraday Corrective RecoveryUSDJPY Faces An Intraday Corrective Recovery after a bearish impulse, which can later send the price lower from technical and Elliott wave pespective. USDJPY is sharply bouncing after reaching May lows within the wedge pattern for wave »v« of an impulse, so it can be now trading in a higher degree abc correction, which can recover the price back to 145 – 146 resistance area before bears return. Basic bearish Elliott wave pattern shows that a five-wave impulsive decline indicates for more weakness after a corrective three-wave pause.
Short
by ew-forecast
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
Fed Minutes and Tariff Delay Support SilverSilver traded near $33.15 on Thursday, steady after Fed minutes showed a cautious rate stance amid economic uncertainty and trade tensions. The Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.5%, awaiting clearer data. Bond market volatility and questions about the dollar’s role weighed on sentiment. Silver remains under pressure from trade risks but gains support from being undervalued versus gold and a fifth year of global supply deficits. Markets now await US GDP and PCE data. Trump’s delay of the EU tariff and Brussels’ pledge to speed talks slightly increased risk sentiment. The first critical support for gold is seen at 33.80 and the first resistance is located at 32.30.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Sterling Holds Ahead of U.S. GDPGBP/USD trades near 1.3435 on Thursday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar after a court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, ruling he lacked authority to impose them. Markets now await preliminary US Q1 GDP data. Fed minutes showed rising uncertainty, with policymakers favoring a cautious, steady rate path. In the UK, food inflation rose for a fourth month, prompting Barclays to delay its rate cut forecast to February 2026, which may support the Pound. The first critical support for gold is seen at 1.3425 and the first resistance is located at 1.3600.
by ChartMage
Yen Stabilizes as Risk Sentiment ImprovesThe Japanese Yen edged up from a two-week low on Thursday but lacked strong momentum, as risk appetite improved after a U.S. court blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, reducing demand for safe havens. Concerns over Japan’s rising debt continue to pressure the Yen. Meanwhile, USD/JPY rose for a fourth day, supported by hawkish FOMC minutes, though markets still expect a Fed rate cut. Expectations of a more hawkish Bank of Japan helped limit the Yen’s losses. The key resistance is at $147.10 meanwhile the major support is located at $145.00.
by ChartMage
BTCUSDT – Risk of trend break, bearish signs emergingBTCUSDT is trading right at the lower boundary of its ascending channel, around the 108,800 mark. After several bounces from this trendline, price action now appears to be stalling—indicating that buying pressure is weakening. If the price breaks below the 107,500–106,500 support zone (marked by the 34 EMA and recent swing low), the short-term uptrend could be invalidated. A confirmed break below 106,500 could trigger a further correction toward the 89 EMA around 102,800. On the news front: Latest data shows Bitcoin’s dominance is slightly decreasing as capital rotates back into altcoins. Additionally, market uncertainty surrounding the Fed's monetary policy outlook is making investors more cautious about riskier assets like crypto.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
USDJPY – Rejected at 146.00, downside risk growsUSDJPY reacted strongly at the 146.00 resistance area – a level where price was previously rejected. After a sharp rally, the pair has turned lower and is now heading toward the 144.00 support zone, which aligns with the EMA 34–89 on the H3 chart. The chart shows a small double top pattern forming around the recent highs. If USDJPY continues to struggle below 146.00 and breaks through the 144.00 support, a short-term downtrend may be confirmed, with the next target around 142.50. On the news side: The Japanese Yen is gaining some ground again after the BOJ signaled readiness to adjust its easing policy if inflation consistently exceeds its target. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure as expectations grow that the Fed may keep interest rates steady in the upcoming meeting, due to cooler consumer data. Suggested strategy: Consider selling if bearish signals appear around the 145.80–146.00 area, with a short-term target at 144.00.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
Recovery or Just a Bull Trap? All Eyes on PCE This WeekNZDUSD – Recovery or Just a Bull Trap? All Eyes on PCE This Week 🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW After the FOMC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the US Dollar has shown signs of recovery driven by expectations that core inflation remains persistent — especially ahead of the upcoming US Core PCE Price Index release this Friday. On the New Zealand side, the Kiwi remains under pressure due to recent weak economic data and negative sentiment from China — its largest trading partner. The RBNZ continues to maintain a neutral stance, offering little support for the currency in the near term. Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await the PCE data to determine inflation trends and potential Fed policy shifts. 📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1–H2 TIMEFRAME) NZDUSD is forming a technical rebound after a strong bearish leg from the 0.60300 region. Current price is trading around the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5964–0.5976), struggling to break above EMA89 and EMA200 resistance. Overall structure: Bearish bias remains intact with lower highs. EMA alignment: EMA13, EMA34, and EMA89 are in bearish formation. Key support zone: 0.5926–0.5940, trendline confluence + consolidation base. 🔑 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH Resistance: 0.5976 – Fibonacci 0.5 retracement + previous rejection zone 0.5990 – Structural resistance of the week 0.6007 – 78.6% Fib + liquidity sweep potential Support: 0.5940 – Trendline retest + short-term structure 0.5926 – Key demand zone with previous fake breakout 🎯 TRADE IDEAS SELL SETUP – Fade the pullback into resistance: Entry: 0.5976 – 0.5990 Stop Loss: 0.6010 Take Profit: 0.5940 → 0.5926 BUY SCALP – On strong bullish rejection from support: Entry: 0.5926 – 0.5930 Stop Loss: 0.5900 Take Profit: 0.5960 → 0.5976 Note: Confirm with bullish candlestick and volume spike before entry. ⚠️ STRATEGY OUTLOOK NZDUSD remains in a corrective phase. This week’s PCE inflation data will be critical. A hotter-than-expected reading could strengthen the USD and push NZDUSD below 0.5926, resuming the medium-term downtrend. Avoid chasing mid-range price action. Focus on price reactions near the key resistance and support levels.
Long
by MMFlowTrading