EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? EURUSD PLAN – Is the Rebound Just a Pause Before the Drop? | All Eyes on PCE
📊 MACRO OUTLOOK:
Following the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected, but maintained a hawkish tone. Chair Powell reiterated that inflation remains too sticky to consider rate cuts in the near term.
Markets now await this week’s US PCE data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — which could provide the next major catalyst for USD strength or weakness.
On the Euro side, weak consumer confidence and tepid growth have strengthened expectations for an ECB rate cut in June. This divergence in monetary policy is weighing on the Euro, as the Dollar finds new demand amid global risk recalibration.
📉 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (H1):
EURUSD has broken down from recent highs near 1.1412 and is now forming a bearish retracement pattern.
Price has broken below the 89-EMA and 200-EMA, signaling bearish structure.
Current price action suggests a temporary bounce from the 1.1260–1.1280 support zone (Fibo 38.2%–50%), but the broader trend remains bearish.
Fibonacci retracement from recent swing lows highlights 1.1338 and 1.1372 as key resistance levels to watch.
🔑 KEY TECHNICAL ZONES:
Resistance Zones:
• 1.1313 – Minor intraday level (Fibo 0.5)
• 1.1338 – EMA confluence + former structure
• 1.1372 – Major rejection zone (previous distribution top)
Support Zones:
• 1.1280 – 1.1260 – Current support bounce area
• 1.1220 – Key liquidity sweep zone
🧭 TRADE STRATEGY:
Scenario A – Sell the Pullback:
• Wait for a rebound into the 1.1313 – 1.1338 zone
• Enter SELL if bearish rejection forms
• SL: 1.1376
• TP: 1.1280 → 1.1260 → 1.1220
Scenario B – Invalid Breakout:
• If price breaks above 1.1372 with momentum, this plan is invalidated — wait for a confirmed breakout retest.
Scenario C – Reactive Buy Scalp:
• If price shows strong rejection from 1.1260 again, scalpers may consider a temporary BUY back toward 1.1300–1.1310
• This is high-risk and counter-trend.
⚠️ STRATEGIC NOTES:
EURUSD remains in a bearish bias until major resistance levels are broken. With PCE data approaching, volatility is likely. Trade setups should be based on confirmation signals and managed tightly as macro data can shift momentum rapidly.
