DreamAnalysis | SOL Analysis: Key Triggers for Futures TradingWelcome to today’s analysis. I will be analyzing Solana (SOL) for futures trading. The analysis will cover daily and 4-hour timeframes, focusing on identifying suitable entry and exit triggers.
Daily Timeframe Overview
In the daily timeframe, after a sharp upward move with strong momentum, SOL hit the $202 resistance zone, initiating a correction phase that has lasted for about 200 days. During this period, the coin has been consolidating between the $125 and $202 levels.
Volume Decline and Key Resistance
The trading volume has been gradually decreasing, and currently, the price is below the $161 resistance. After testing this resistance three times, SOL has yet to establish itself above this level. A breakout above $161 could serve as a good long trigger, with the first target being the next resistance at $187.
voiding Moving Averages
I’m not using moving averages like the SMAs due to the market’s range-bound condition and low volatility. However, for detecting momentum, we can use an RSI breakout above 65.01, but this confirmation isn’t highly reliable due to the sideways market, which makes indicators and oscillators less accurate.
Long Triggers and Potential Targets
The next long triggers are the breakouts of the $187 and $202 resistance levels. Personally, I prefer opening a position with the $187 breakout, as the $202 breakout might not provide a strong and reliable trigger. If $202 is broken, the next target would be $233.
Short Triggers and Bias Towards Uptrend
The short triggers are $139 and $125, but I’d prefer to open a position at $125 since the main market trend is still bullish and currently in correction. I believe there is a higher chance of an upward move than a downward one.
If the support levels are broken, the next support target would be $82.
4-Hour Timeframe Analysis
Now, let’s move on to the 4-hour timeframe. The triggers from the higher timeframes are also visible with slight modifications, and we can use the same triggers in this timeframe as well.
Weakening Momentum
In the last upward wave, after hitting the $160 resistance, volume started to decline, and the size of the candles and market momentum indicated weakness in the trend. Additionally, we have a convex trendline that also highlights the weakening wave. Given this, I’d personally open a short position upon breaking the trendline and the $152 support, but with low risk. I’d take profits at the $138 and $126 support levels.
Importance of $160 Resistance
Despite the weakening trend and the short trigger, I wouldn’t hesitate to open a long position. The $160 resistance is crucial, as it has pushed the price down three times so far. Therefore, it’s natural for the price to lose strength near this level. The $160 breakout is also a valid long trigger, and I’d make every effort to open a long position if this resistance is broken.
Caution on Short Triggers
As mentioned, the first and riskier short trigger is the $152 level, which isn’t very reliable. I recommend risking only half of your usual amount for this position. The next trigger is at $138, which I view as a target for the first short position. The main short trigger is at $126.
[bFinal Thoughts on SOL’s Trend
Overall, I believe that in the higher timeframes, Solana’s trend remains bullish, which affects futures triggers. Given this, I personally prefer taking long positions, which is why I wouldn’t open a short position at the $138 level. However, the $160 breakout seems like a good long position opportunity for me.
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice, and it’s purely my personal opinion on the movement of this coin. It may be entirely wrong, so always do your own research before making any decisions.
