Get started

Technical Analysis

Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction: With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment: Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns. Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds. Analysis: Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities. Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode. What to Watch: Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution. Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance) Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
Gold Trading Idea: Is a New ATH on the HorizonGold prices took a breather on Thursday, snapping a four-day rally and dropping over 1%. This pullback comes amid mixed US economic data, with softer-than-expected job reports and higher producer prices creating uncertainty. Profit-taking ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting further pressured prices, with XAU/USD currently trading around $2,684. Fundamental Insight Despite the recent dip, Gold remains a safe haven asset in the face of geopolitical tensions and central banks’ dovish monetary stance. The European Central Bank’s third consecutive rate cut and expectations of the Federal Reserve reducing rates by 25 basis points next week could set the stage for renewed upside momentum. As we edge closer to year-end, political tensions and easing monetary policies globally could fuel Gold’s potential to challenge new all-time highs. Technical Outlook On the charts, Gold respected the $2,720 key level, forming a double-top pattern reminiscent of a "batman face." Key levels to watch are: Resistance: $2,720 Support: $2,689 and $2,610 A break above $2,720 could signal a bullish continuation, while a dip to $2,610 may offer a strong buying opportunity for long-term traders. Stay tuned for more trading insights and strategies!
TVC:GOLD
by InwardTrader
1
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Is This the Greatest Comeback?Could this truly be the greatest comeback of 2024 & 2025? The decision for NASDAQ:SMCI is imminent, and it’s crucial to remain open to all potential scenarios. Over the past month, NASDAQ:SMCI has risen by an impressive 83% and is now trading just below a significant resistance level. Flipping this resistance would mark the first shift from a bearish to a bullish structure since the beginning of the decline. Such a reclaim would also indicate a remarkable V-shaped correction, which holds substantial significance on the weekly chart. It’s likely that NASDAQ:SMCI may experience a slight pullback this week to accumulate more buying momentum before pushing above the $50 mark. However, the stock must not fall below $25, as this remains the Point of Control (POC) since 2022—a critical level that must be respected to maintain the bullish potential.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by freeguy_by_wmc
Alibaba (BABA): Stimulus Hopes Fade, Correction Ahead?We secured solid profits on NYSE:BABA , with a significant rejection at the breakout gap. The stock is now under pressure, facing potential headwinds due to Donald Trump’s presidency and his proposed tariffs. While Chinese stocks surged recently, driven by Beijing’s increased rhetoric around stimulus ahead of a key policymakers’ meeting, the lack of any immediate announcements until March’s National People’s Congress may dampen sentiment. Despite NYSE:BABA dropping pre-market and likely throughout the week, our strategy remains unchanged. With partial profits taken and the stop-loss at break-even, we are not exposed to unnecessary risk. As long as NYSE:BABA continues trading above $82, the position remains stable unless major news changes the outlook.
NYSE:BABALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
TradeCityPro EURJPY Analysis Key Opportunities Ahead👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Let’s move beyond crypto and analyze the popular EUR/JPY currency pair from both fundamental and technical perspectives, preparing for potential triggers in the days ahead. 🌍 Fundamental Overview Monetary Policy: The ECB’s hawkish stance strengthens the Euro, while the BoJ’s dovish policies weaken the Yen. Economic Data: Eurozone GDP and inflation drive the Euro, while Japan's industrial performance and exports influence the Yen. Risk Sentiment: The Yen gains during risk-off scenarios as a safe haven, while the Euro thrives on Eurozone stability. Geopolitical Events: The Euro reacts to EU political shifts, while the Yen benefits from global tensions, such as those in the Middle East. Yield Differentials: Higher bond yields in the Eurozone compared to Japan attract capital flows to the Euro. Current dynamics show the Euro is stronger, but shifts in risk sentiment or changes in BoJ policy could favor the Yen. 🕒 4-Hour Time Frame On the 4-hour timeframe, we’ve seen price rejection from the 166.63 resistance level, followed by a downward move. After breaking the descending trendline, the price retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level, creating potential setups: 📈 Long Position Trigger After breaking the 159.849 level and Fibonacci resistance, a long entry is viable, targeting 162.104. An RSI breakout into overbought territory could add momentum. 📉 Short Position Trigger If rejected at resistance and breaking below 159.331, a short position is possible, targeting 157.80 or the significant support at 155.119. Stay alert for confirmations to act on these scenarios. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
by tradecitypro
4
GBPNZD Can Be Finishing The Wedge PatternGBPNZD pair has been trading bullish for the last 2 years or so, but since 2023 we can see that price action is slowing down and that bulls are running out of steam. It came even higher recently and it's testing the highs of the year, but we are tracking an ending diagonal a.k.a. wedge pattern, which can be in final stages of 5th wave. If we are correct, then strong and sharp reversal will show up in 2025. The ending diagonal (wedge) pattern is a special type of wave that occurs in wave 5 of an impulse or in wave C of a correction. An ending diagonal pattern is a type of pattern that can occur at the completion of a strong move. It reflects a “calming” of the market sentiment such that price still moves generally in the direction of the larger move, but not strongly enough to produce an impulsive wave. Ending diagonals consist of five waves, labeled 1-2-3-4-5, where each wave subdivides into three legs. Waves 1 and 4 overlap in price, while wave 3 can not be the shortest amongst waves 1, 3 and 5. The reason why they are so interesting is because they are indicating a reversal, usually a strong one.
Short
by ew-forecast
Silver May Face More Weakness After A Corrective RallySilver is making sharp reversal down from recent highs, even breaking a lower trendline support of an ending diagonal which is an important indication for a top in place. As such, we are aware of much lower prices, maybe even back to the start of a diagonal at around 27/28 as drop from 4h time frame has an impulsive bearish structure into wave A/1. But we see some bounce now that can be an A-B-C irregular/expanded flat correction into wave B/2, where subwave (C) can be now in progress. Resistance is then around 31.60-33 area, and from where we will have to be aware of further weakness within wave C or 3.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by ew-forecast
2
BEML Ltd: Bullish Breakout AnalysisUpdate: BEML secured a ₹136 crore order from the Ministry of Defence, strengthening its fundamentals and boosting investor sentiment. Technical Highlights: Breakout Zone: Stock broke above ₹4,500 resistance with strong volumes, confirming bullish momentum. Key Levels: Support: ₹4,300 | ₹4,040 Resistance: ₹4,762 | ₹4,995 | ₹5,205 | ₹5,472 (Fibonacci target). Trend: Higher highs and higher lows indicate a sustained uptrend. Momentum: RSI in overbought territory suggests strong buying pressure, with potential minor pullbacks. Outlook: The technical breakout, combined with a solid fundamental catalyst, positions BEML for a potential rally toward ₹5,200–₹5,470. A stop-loss below ₹4,300 is advised for risk management. Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Please consult a financial advisor before investing.
NSE:BEMLLong
by AngshumanSaikia
GOLD NEXT MOVEDear Friends, Let’s take a closer look and trade accordingly. From the chart, we are witnessing a promising setup as the price has successfully broken out of the consolidation phase, reaching the $2726 level. Theoretically, based on Elliott Wave Theory, the pair is currently moving within Wave 4, a corrective wave following the completion of Wave 3, which closed below the $2722 level. What’s next? The price is likely to test a key liquidity zone, building momentum for a strong Wave 5, targeting $2758—a compelling and significant resistance level. Good luck, and may you achieve abundant profit:)
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader-Briannnn
Gold → Breaking through channel resistance. New ATH target?Hello everyone! Ben here! Today, gold has officially broken out of the price channel, while the bulls are striving to maintain control, defending the key support level around 2665. This level was formed in the context of a weakening USD after signs of correction. The precious metal is now facing significant growth potential, with the opportunity to distribute prices at local highs in the near future. Macroeconomic factors are playing an essential role in supporting gold prices. Concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven demand, making gold a highly sought-after asset. Meanwhile, the U.S. jobs report released last Friday has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider cutting interest rates in its December policy meeting, which is generally a positive signal for gold prices. However, gold's growth outlook still faces short-term challenges. Investors are currently awaiting key inflation reports, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). Both reports are expected to provide critical signals for the Fed's monetary policy direction and could create substantial market volatility. From a technical perspective, the main trend remains bullish, but prices are currently testing strong resistance. To reinforce upward momentum, gold needs to break out of this resistance zone and sustain above it. If this happens, prices could quickly move to new highs. However, if prices fail to break through, a retest of key support areas around 2677 (Fibonacci 0.618) and 2663 (Fibonacci 0.5) should be anticipated before the uptrend can continue. Share your evaluations and questions about XAUUSD so we can discuss further!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
1
Bitcoin Bullish 2024-2035 UPDATE. Mass Adoption ComingGood day to you all. My previously published idea Works Well. So there i an Update of That for ne Decade again. A i posted in Previous Long-Term TA. We had a little time to accumulate more #Bitcoin before it break previous ATH at $65000. (Check Previously posted Scenario). Our next Main targets still absolutely same at $335000 by ~2025y Few stops at $125000 and $240-270000 have a chance to be... No matter stops After that Bitcoin will go it's last time correction until $100000-125000. And again all of you will think it's dead and that all. But Governments will buy it all from you, moreover they'll buy from whales. Everyone will buy it before mass adoption will start... GLOBAL adoption. It will have a place near 2026-2028 years. So there will be you time to buy the dip. It will be shorter1-2 years to buy that dip. Our next big Target after that at $1000000 and $1.8 Millions. Timeframe 2028-2035yy. (l'Il update this TA again at some point). This is the Target where 95% of you thinks it will be a Big resistance, and, i think, everyone will leave the game at that Target, and their game will be over forever, it will be your Big mistake. At 1M price we'll see full adoption in our Earth life of #Bitcoin. They'll start to accept crypto everywhere. So there are zero reason to sell at $1000000, bcoz there are no more corrections like we saw in previuos waves and Seasons. After That #Bitcoin will rise slowly going to $10000000. Do you own Research. But we now at stage where its a gold time to buy the dip at even $100000 price today.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoPtoTA
2