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Post-Liberation Day Sell-Off – Crash or Correction?Liberation Day has turned into a dramatic "blow the markets back out" day for the SPY , with a significant daily drop of nearly 6%, slicing decisively below the critical 200-day moving average at $574.46. Historically, breaking below the 200-day MA is a strong bearish signal, indicating potential further downside momentum. The previously identified key bearish pivot, the "Best Price Short" at $565.16, served as a crucial resistance level from which sellers aggressively stepped in, intensifying today's sell-off. Given the current bearish sentiment, the next immediate downside targets without a significant bounce (dead-cat bounce) include: Half 1 Short (Momentum target): $505.28 (already tested) High Vol Momentum Target 1a: $497.66 Half 2 Short (secondary bearish momentum): $486.41 Extended Momentum Target (HH Vol Momo Target 2a): $475.16 For traders who missed the initial move, look to re-enter shorts if there's a modest retracement toward the previously broken "Weeks High Short" at $520.16, maintaining tight risk control with stops ideally set just above the "Best Price Short" ($565.16). Critical levels summary: Ideal Short Re-entry Zone: $520.16 Profit Targets: $497.66, $486.41, and ultimate $475.16 Stop Loss Area: Slightly above $565.16 Major Broken Support (Resistance now): 200-day MA at $574.46 Today's significant volume spike further reinforces bearish conviction. RSI is deeply oversold at 23.24, suggesting caution for potential short-term bounce, but any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless there's a substantial political or economic pivot soon. These levels are algorithmically defined, designed to remove emotions from trading. Trade responsibly, adhere to your strategy, and protect your capital.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
BTC ANALYSIS 🔮 #BTC Analysis  🚀🚀 💲💲 #BTC is trading between support and resistance area. There is a potential rejection again from its resistance zone and pullback from its major support area. If #BTC breaks resistance zone $88500 then there will a chance of bullish movement 💸Current Price -- $84470 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked crucial levels in the chart . We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. 🚀💸 #BTC  #Cryptocurrency #DYOR
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 4H Chart Analysis – Professional BreakdownBitcoin (BTC/USD) 4H Chart – Detailed Professional Analysis This chart presents a Rectangle Pattern, a common consolidation structure in technical analysis. The price has been oscillating between a well-defined resistance level near $88,000 - $89,000 and a support level around $80,000 - $81,000. This pattern suggests an upcoming breakout, with bearish continuation being the most probable scenario. Understanding the Rectangle Pattern A rectangle pattern forms when price moves sideways, trapped between two horizontal levels. Traders watch for a breakout in either direction to determine the next trend. In this case, Bitcoin has tested the resistance multiple times but failed to break above, indicating strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, support has been retested several times, which weakens its strength over time. A bearish breakdown is likely because: Buyers appear unable to push past resistance, showing exhaustion. Support has been tested multiple times, which increases the chance of a breakdown. The dotted black trendline is now being tested, and a break below it would further confirm bearish momentum. Trade Setup for a Breakdown A short trade becomes valid only if Bitcoin breaks below the $81,000 - $82,000 support zone with strong momentum. The price must close below this level to confirm the move. How to Enter the Trade? Look for a strong bearish candle close below the $81,000 - $82,000 range. If Bitcoin retests this broken support (now acting as resistance), this can be a secondary short entry point. Once confirmation is seen, open a short position. Stop Loss Placement To protect against false breakouts, a stop loss should be set above the $88,457 resistance zone. If the price moves back into the rectangle and surpasses this level, it means the bearish setup is no longer valid. Profit Target and Trade Expectation The expected take profit target is $73,541. This is calculated using the measured move projection, meaning the height of the rectangle is subtracted from the breakdown point. If Bitcoin reaches this level, the trade will have successfully captured the bearish momentum. Market Psychology Behind This Move The repeated failure to break above resistance ($88,000 - $89,000) signals weak buying interest. Buyers have been stepping in at support, but each retest of the $80,000 - $81,000 zone makes it more vulnerable. Once support finally breaks, several factors will accelerate the move: Long positions will be forced to sell, increasing selling pressure. Breakout traders will enter new short positions, pushing price further down. Liquidity below support will be triggered, causing Bitcoin to fall sharply toward the $73,541 target. Invalidation Scenario (Bullish Case) If Bitcoin breaks above $88,000 - $89,000 and holds, the bearish setup becomes invalid. In that case: The price would shift into a bullish continuation pattern. Traders should avoid shorting and instead look for buying opportunities above resistance. Final Thoughts This is a high-probability bearish setup, but patience is key—wait for confirmation before entering. Risk management is crucial : The stop loss at $88,457 ensures that losses are minimized if the market moves against the trade. If Bitcoin remains inside the rectangle, traders can buy at support and sell at resistance until a breakout occurs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis Here is my latest structure analysis for US30 Index. Resistance 1: 40650 - 40850 area Resistance 2: 41150 - 41300 area Resistance 3: 42550 - 42850 area Support 1: 40000 - 40250 area Support 2: 39470 - 39650 area Support 3: 38400 - 38650 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US30Short
by VasilyTrader
1
Gold (XAU/USD) Breaks Ascending Channel – Bearish Move Ahead?📉 Market Structure: Gold was moving in an ascending channel, but price has now broken below the support trendline. This suggests a possible trend reversal or correction. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance : $3,125 - $3,170 Support: $3,054 - $3,035 Target: $3,000 - $2,995 📊 Trade Idea: A pullback to support-turned-resistance could give a short entry. Bearish target: $3,000 if rejection holds. Invalidation: If price reclaims $3,125. 🔍 Watch for: Price reaction at the former channel support. Possible retest before further drop. Let me know if you need any modifications! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PIPsOptimizer
BTC 4H Technical & Fundamental AnalysisTRUMP EFFECT & RESISTANCE DENIAL CRYPTOCAP:BTC 4H Technical & Fundamental Analysis As we expected, Bitcoin reached the upper band of the falling channel (approximately $88,000), touched the red resistance circle and then experienced a strong rejection. The timing of this technical rejection is no coincidence. Last night, former US President Donald Trump's announcement that he would impose new customs duties on all countries of the world created a risk-off mood in the markets . In particular, global uncertainty and protectionist policies triggered selling pressure in risk assets such as Bitcoin. Technically: 🔸RSI still has no obvious negative mismatch. 🔸However, since the price cannot break the upper band of the falling channel, this region continues to work as a selling zone for now. If this retracement movement deepens, the first major support level of $73.777 , followed by the $69.000 line may come to the agenda. On the other hand, if the price manages to regain strength and break this zone in volume, there may be a rapid movement to the GETTEX:92K - $95K band. In short, Technical resistance + Trump news effect combined, we can say that the market has stepped back for now. From now on, volume and news flow will be directional. #btc #Bitcoin #crypto #cryptocurrency
by ugurtash
1
Gold trading on April 3, 2025Market Summary: The market was shaken as Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports, triggering fears of a trade war after China announced retaliatory measures. This sparked concerns over a potential economic downturn, pushing gold prices to record highs as the USD faced heavy selling pressure. Investors, worried about a recession, are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June. Bond yields fell as the USD remained under pressure. Meanwhile, ADP data showed 155K new jobs, but it failed to support the USD. Trading Plan: XAUUSD Buy Zone: 3082 - 3080 Stop Loss (SL): 3077 Take Profit (TP): 3085 - 3088 - 3095 - Open Wishing everyone an amazing trading day!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianCarter
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Rectangle Pattern Breakdown – Bearish Move1. Overview of the Chart & Market Context The chart provided represents Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, published on TradingView. This analysis highlights the rectangle pattern formation, key support and resistance levels, and a potential short trade setup with defined risk management. The market structure suggests a bearish outlook, as Bitcoin attempted to break above a resistance level but failed, leading to a sharp decline. The price action now indicates further downside movement, aligning with a rectangle pattern breakdown. 2. Rectangle Pattern Formation What is a Rectangle Pattern? A rectangle pattern is a consolidation phase where price moves sideways within a defined range, forming multiple touches at resistance and support before a breakout occurs. It can serve as a continuation or reversal pattern, depending on the breakout direction. In this case, the pattern has resulted in a bearish breakout, indicating that sellers have taken control of the market. Key Characteristics of This Rectangle Pattern: The upper boundary (resistance) is at 88,333 USD, where price repeatedly failed to break higher. The lower boundary (support) is at 78,044 USD, which acted as a strong floor but is now under pressure. The price moved within this range for an extended period, showing a balanced battle between buyers and sellers. A failed breakout at resistance, followed by a sharp rejection, signals a bearish reversal. 3. Breakdown of Key Levels & Market Structure A. Resistance Level – 88,333 USD This level has been tested multiple times, but price failed to hold above it. The recent failed breakout led to a strong bearish rejection, confirming resistance. The price action formed a bearish engulfing candlestick, adding to the bearish bias. B. Support Level – 78,044 USD This zone has previously provided multiple bounces, showing strong buying interest. However, with the recent break below this level, it may now act as resistance. If the price retests this area and fails to break above, it confirms a bearish continuation. C. Price Rejection and Market Structure Shift The formation of lower highs and lower lows signals a transition from consolidation to a downtrend. The price broke out of the rectangle pattern to the downside, confirming a bearish breakout. If the support at 78,044 USD fails, the price may continue dropping toward 73,678 USD. 4. Trade Setup & Execution Plan 🔹 Entry Strategy A short position is initiated after the bearish rejection at resistance (88,333 USD). The breakdown of the rectangle pattern strengthens the short setup. The price may briefly retest the broken support (78,044 USD) before continuing downward. 🔹 Stop-Loss Placement The stop-loss (SL) is placed above 88,333 USD, ensuring that if price moves against the trade, risk is minimized. This protects against any unexpected bullish reversal. 🔹 Profit Targets (Take Profit - TP) TP1: 78,044 USD (previous support level) – A conservative target. TP2: 73,678 USD (deeper support) – If bearish momentum continues, this is the extended target. Trade Component Details Entry Short after rejection at 88,333 USD Stop-Loss (SL) Above 88,333 USD Take Profit 1 (TP1) 78,044 USD Take Profit 2 (TP2) 73,678 USD Confirmation Breakout & retest of support Risk-Reward Ratio Favorable (defined SL & TP) 5. Expected Price Action and Market Behavior 🔻 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely Outcome) The price will continue to fall towards TP1 (78,044 USD) due to selling pressure. If 78,044 USD fails to hold, Bitcoin is likely to test the next major support level (73,678 USD). The structure of lower highs and lower lows supports the downtrend. 🔺 Bullish Scenario (Invalidation of the Short Setup) If Bitcoin breaks above 88,333 USD, the bearish outlook is invalidated. This could signal a potential trend reversal or bullish breakout. 6. Technical Indicators Supporting the Analysis Several technical indicators can be used to confirm the bearish outlook: 📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index): If RSI is below 50, it confirms bearish momentum. If RSI is oversold (<30), a temporary bounce may occur. 📉 Moving Averages: If the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA, it confirms a bearish trend. If price is below both MAs, it strengthens the bearish setup. 📉 Volume Analysis: A high selling volume during the breakdown indicates strong bearish conviction. If volume spikes near support levels, a potential bounce could happen. 7. Summary of Key Findings Pattern Identified: Rectangle pattern with a bearish breakout. Market Structure: Price formed lower highs and lower lows, signaling a downtrend. Trade Setup: Short trade after rejection at 88,333 USD. Stop-loss above 88,333 USD to manage risk. Profit targets at 78,044 USD (TP1) and 73,678 USD (TP2). Risk Management: Clear stop-loss and take-profit levels ensure a controlled risk-to-reward ratio. If price moves against the trade, the stop-loss prevents excessive losses. Technical Indicators: RSI, Moving Averages, and Volume Analysis confirm the bearish outlook. 8. Final Thoughts & Trading Plan Implementation This analysis presents a high-probability bearish trade setup using the rectangle pattern breakdown strategy. With proper risk management, traders can execute this short trade with a structured plan. 🔹 Actionable Trading Plan: Wait for price confirmation – If BTC retests the broken support (78,044 USD) and rejects, this strengthens the trade idea. Execute the short trade – Once confirmation occurs, enter a short position. Manage risk appropriately – Stick to the stop-loss above 88,333 USD. Monitor price action – Adjust take-profit levels based on momentum and support breaks. If the price invalidates the setup by breaking above resistance, it is crucial to exit the trade and re-evaluate the market conditions. Conclusion: This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rectangle pattern breakdown analysis provides a clear bearish trade setup, supported by market structure, technical indicators, and price action. The well-defined entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels ensure a structured risk-reward ratio, making this a viable short trade opportunity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow. The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels. 📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown 1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed: Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend. Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength. Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in. 2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure 🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower. 🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold. 🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal. 🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy 3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it: 📉 Sell Entry: The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level. 📍 Stop Loss (SL): A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias. 🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets: TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily. TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio. 4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward. Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2. Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control. 📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment 🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control. 🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup. 🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues. 📊 Final Thought: This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅ Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
EURJPY Double Top - Bearish Reversal Ahead Toward Target!🔍 Chart Analysis: Identifying the Double Top Pattern The EURJPY (Euro/Japanese Yen) 1-hour chart shows a classic Double Top pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal formation. This pattern occurs when the price reaches a significant resistance level twice but fails to break above it, indicating a potential shift from bullish momentum to bearish control. 1️⃣ Top 1: The first peak formed as buyers pushed the price higher, but strong resistance forced a pullback. 2️⃣ Top 2: The price attempted to break the same resistance level again but failed, forming a second peak at approximately 164.165, confirming that sellers are overpowering buyers. 3️⃣ Neckline (Support Level): The critical support level around 160.000 acted as a trigger for the bearish move. Once this level broke, the double top pattern was confirmed. 📌 Key Levels and Market Structure 🔹 Resistance (164.165): The highest level where sellers dominated, preventing further upward movement. 🔹 Support/Neckline (160.000): This level acted as a crucial pivot. Once broken, it signaled a trend reversal. 🔹 Take Profit Levels: TP1 – 159.036: This serves as the first profit target, aligning with a prior demand zone. TP2 – 157.200: The full projected downside move based on the double top pattern. 🔹 Stop Loss (SL): Above 164.165, ensuring a risk-managed approach in case of trend invalidation. 📉 Trading Strategy: How to Trade This Setup? 1️⃣ Entry Confirmation: The ideal entry was after the price broke the neckline at 160.000 and retested it as resistance. A breakdown candle with high volume confirmed seller dominance. 2️⃣ Stop-Loss Placement: A stop-loss above 164.165 provides room for price fluctuations while protecting against false breakouts. 3️⃣ Profit Targets: TP1: 159.036, securing partial profits. TP2: 157.200, completing the double top measured move. 📊 Market Psychology & Price Action Insights The double top pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. The repeated rejection at 164.165 signals a lack of buying strength, increasing the probability of a downward move. The breakdown of the 160.000 neckline confirms that sellers have taken control. The price action also shows a lower-high formation, reinforcing bearish momentum. ✅ Conclusion: Bearish Bias Until 157.200 This setup strongly favors short positions, as long as the price stays below 162.500. A break above 164.165 invalidates the bearish setup, signaling a potential reversal. Until then, the market remains bearish, with TP1 & TP2 as achievable downside targets. 💬 What’s your outlook on EURJPY? Drop your analysis below! 👇
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
EURUSD: Bulls Take ControlEURUSD has broken out of the parallel descending channel that existed over the past few days, thanks to positive economic data in the market at the end of Thursday's trading session. Currently, the currency pair is moving in a consolidation pattern around the new support level at 1.0789, and the potential for further upside is considered high due to support from the confluence zone between EMA 34 and EMA 89. The next targets are expected to aim for resistance levels at 1.082 and 1.085. Wishing you smooth and successful trading!
Long
by BrianCarter
GOLD: 500 pips trading strategy !Fundamental Insight: Gold surged to a new all-time high above $3,070 during the Asian session on Friday, driven by escalating global trade tensions, uncertainty surrounding Trump-era tariffs, and a strong wave of risk-off sentiment fueling demand for safe-haven assets. Additionally, increasing bets that the Federal Reserve will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle have provided further support to the precious metal. Brian’s Personal Comment: Gold successfully broke above the $3,036 resistance level and closed candles above the recent highs, signaling a bullish structure on the H1 timeframe. However, to ensure safer trading, it’s advisable to wait for a clearer trend setup or a minor pullback before entering long positions. Gold Trading Setups: 🔹 BUY XAUUSD: Entry: 3059 – 3057 SL: 3055 TP: 3062, 3065, 3069 🔹 BUY XAUUSD: Entry: 3050 – 3047 SL: 3044 TP: 3053, 3056, open target Technical Analysis: Based on the 34 & 89 EMAs and clear support-resistance zones, these buy setups align with the current bullish momentum. Pullbacks to EMA zones offer good re-entry opportunities, especially when price respects structure and bullish candle formations are confirmed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianCarter
8
Gold is about to set a new ATHGOLD INFORMATION: Gold prices surged to a record high above $3,100/ounce, marking one of the strongest rallies in the precious metal's history. The upward momentum is driven by multiple factors, including increased safe-haven demand due to concerns about the impact of upcoming US tariff policies, strong demand from central banks, expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate easing, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased capital flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Additionally, investor demand for gold is rising sharply, as evidenced by increasing inflows into exchange-traded funds, with weekly inflows reaching their highest levels since March 2022, signaling a rush into the precious metal. BRIAN's Personal Commentary: The context of everything from technical to political and economic factors is supporting gold price increases in the first quarter of 2025. Gold prices are likely to achieve their highest growth rate in history. Gold Setup: XAUUSD BUY ZONE 3133-3130 SL: 3126 TP: 3135-3137-open Technical Analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance zones to establish reasonable BUY orders. IMPORTANT NOTE: Note: Brian wants traders to manage their capital well - Use appropriate lot sizes according to your capital - Take profit at 4-6% of account capital - Cut losses at 2-3% of account capital
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianCarter
2
GOLD --> Increased economic risks increase interest rates.OANDA:XAUUSD the sharp increase is driven by high interest rates fueled by rapidly rising economic risks, mainly related to Trump's tariff war. For selling, risks remain very high, with stock market and cryptocurrency declines only adding to interest in this metal. The market is seeking safety in traditional value storage channels amid speculation surrounding US President Donald Trump's tax plans on "Liberation Day", April 2. With the WSJ reporting that Trump may impose global tariffs of up to 20% on most US trading partners. This could increase inflationary and stagflationary pressures, weakening the dollar and US Treasury bond yields, supporting gold prices. This week, all eyes are on Trump's speech on Wednesday, PMI data, non-farm payrolls report and Powell's speech. Technically, selling is not recommended at this time due to high risks - for buying, we should wait for price corrections to key support levels. Emphasizing the key point that we are not talking about any trend reversals at this time. It's worth waiting for local corrections or consolidation, the market will mark important levels, liquidity zones or imbalances where you can build trading strategies. Gold will continue rising due to strongly increasing risks.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AdrianBennett
2
Gold --> Consolidation before the news. Increase trendOANDA:XAUUSD entering a strong growth phase after a false breakout from support as part of the correction process. The previous high at 3127 is now acting as a robust support for buyers. Strong news is about to be released... Fundamentally, the market is shifting towards defensive assets amid speculation from the WSJ that Trump is considering imposing global tariffs of up to 20% on most of the United States' trading partners while rejecting plans to scale back tariffs. This could create inflationary pressure and stagnation, weakening the dollar and bond yields, thus supporting gold prices. Central banks and investors continue to build positions in gold, but there may be some adjustments before the announcement of tariffs and the release of U.S. economic data. Theoretically, any reaction to U.S. data is likely to be short-lived, as the main event risk on the so-called 'Liberation Day' is Trump's major tariff revelation. The strong resistance level is at 3135. A breakout and consolidation above this level would foster continued growth. However, given the upcoming news, gold may test the area of interest and liquidity between 3025-3020 before further advancing.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AdrianBennett
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 3, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 President Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Implemented: On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs, aiming to address trade imbalances. These include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union products, and 25% on all foreign-made automobiles. The administration asserts these measures will revitalize domestic industries, though critics warn of potential price increases for consumers and possible retaliatory actions from affected nations. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 3: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 225,000​ Previous: 224,000​ Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, providing insight into the labor market's health.​ 📈 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -$76.0 billion​ Previous: -$131.4 billion​ Indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.​ 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0​ Previous: 53.5​ Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 suggests expansion.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
EUR/USD: Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout Towards TargetLet’s analyze the 1-hour candlestick chart of EUR/USD (Euro / U.S. Dollar) on TradingView, published by GoldMasterTraders on April 2, 2025, at 19:04 UTC. The chart highlights a trading setup based on a Falling Wedge pattern, indicating a potential bullish breakout. I’ll describe the chart pattern and the trading setup in detail. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge Pattern Description Type: The chart identifies a Falling Wedge pattern, which is a bullish chart pattern that typically signals a reversal or continuation of an uptrend. A Falling Wedge forms when the price consolidates between two downward-sloping trendlines that converge over time, with the upper trendline (resistance) sloping more steeply than the lower trendline (support). Appearance on the Chart: The Falling Wedge is clearly marked with two converging trendlines: Upper Trendline (Resistance): Connects the lower highs, sloping downward. Lower Trendline (Support): Connects the lower lows, also sloping downward but at a less steep angle. The pattern began forming around March 19, after a sharp decline from 1.9400 to 1.8700, and continued until the breakout on April 2, 2025. Breakout Direction: Falling Wedges are typically bullish, meaning the price is expected to break out to the upside. The chart shows the price breaking above the upper trendline of the wedge around April 2, 2025, with a strong bullish candle, confirming the breakout. The breakout level is around 1.90840, and the price has moved slightly above this level, closing at 1.90864 at the time of the chart. Key Levels and Trading Setup 1. Support Level A horizontal support zone is marked around 1.90730 (approximately 1.9070–1.9080). This level acted as a base during the wedge formation, with the price bouncing off this zone multiple times (e.g., on March 23 and March 30). The support level aligns with the lower boundary of the wedge, reinforcing its significance as a key area of buying interest. 2. Resistance Level A resistance zone is marked around 1.92000 (approximately 1.9190–1.9210). This level corresponds to a previous high reached on March 19, before the wedge formation began. It represents a significant barrier where selling pressure previously emerged. After the breakout, the price is expected to test this resistance as part of the bullish move. 3. Target The target for the breakout is projected at 1.92110. This target is likely calculated by measuring the height of the wedge at its widest point (from the highest high to the lowest low within the pattern) and projecting that distance upward from the breakout point. The chart indicates a potential move of 0.00435 (0.40%), which aligns with the distance from the breakout level (around 1.90840) to the target (1.92110). 4. Stop Loss A stop loss is suggested below the support level at 1.90730. This placement ensures that if the breakout fails and the price falls back into the wedge, the trade is exited with a manageable loss. The stop loss is just below the breakout level (1.90840), with a distance of approximately 0.00110, representing the risk on the trade. Trading Setup Summary Entry: The setup suggests entering a long (buy) position after the price breaks out above the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge, which occurred around April 2, 2025. The breakout is confirmed by a strong bullish candle closing above the trendline at approximately 1.90840. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the support level at 1.90730 to protect against a false breakout or reversal. The distance from the breakout level (1.90840) to the stop loss (1.90730) is 0.00110, or about 0.06% of the entry price. Take Profit/Target: Aim for the target at 1.92110, which is near the next significant resistance level. The distance from the breakout level to the target is 0.01270, or a 0.40% move. Risk-Reward Ratio: The risk is 0.00110 (from 1.90840 to 1.90730), and the reward is 0.01270 (from 1.90840 to 1.92110), giving a risk-reward ratio of approximately 11.55:1 (0.01270 / 0.00110). This is an exceptionally high risk-reward ratio, making the setup very attractive, though traders should ensure the breakout is well-confirmed due to the tight stop loss. Additional Observations Price Action Context: Before the wedge formed, the price experienced a sharp decline from 1.9400 (March 13) to 1.8700 (March 19), indicating a strong bearish trend. The Falling Wedge represents a consolidation phase within this downtrend, and the upside breakout suggests a potential reversal or at least a corrective move higher. Volume and Momentum: The chart doesn’t display volume or momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD). However, a typical confirmation of a Falling Wedge breakout would include: An increase in volume on the breakout candle, indicating strong buying interest. Bullish momentum signals, such as an RSI above 50 or a bullish MACD crossover. Traders might want to check these indicators for additional confirmation of the breakout’s strength. Timeframe: This is a 1-hour chart, so the setup is intended for short-term trading, with the target potentially being reached within a few hours to a day. Market Context: EUR/USD is influenced by factors like U.S. dollar strength, Eurozone economic data, and interest rate differentials. A bullish move in EUR/USD could be driven by a weaker dollar (e.g., due to dovish U.S. economic data) or positive Eurozone developments. Conclusion The TradingView idea presents a bullish setup for EUR/USD based on a Falling Wedge pattern on the 1-hour chart. The price has broken above the wedge’s upper trendline, confirming a bullish move with a target of 1.92110. The setup includes a stop loss at 1.90730 to manage risk, offering an impressive risk-reward ratio of 11.55:1. Key levels to watch include the support at 1.90730 and the resistance at 1.92000. Traders should consider additional confirmation from volume and momentum indicators, as well as broader market conditions, before executing the trade. Since this chart is from April 2, 2025, market conditions may have evolved, and I can assist with searching for more recent data if needed!
Long
by GoldMasterTrades