INR has made a major top against USDFall of INR against the USD began in early 1970s, or perhaps late 1960s--we don't know for sure for lack of trading data. Since then, it has depreciated against the USD in crystal-clear 5 legs, or waves according to Elliott Wave Theory (EWT). To validate EWT, there occurred a gigantic gap of 9.23% in July 1991 where third wave is supposed to be--a hallmark of third waves. Furthermore, there's even a divergence between Price and Elliott Wave Oscillator (5/35 MACD) on the Monthly chart--typical of fifth waves.
So, what's next then? Considering the time frame of the entire price move till date, I would say that a bear wave of Supercycle degree has just ended and we are looking at a 10-15 year advance in Indian Rupee against the US Dollar . In support of my forecast, INR has just posted a beautiful, unambiguous 5-wave advance in the shape of an expanding diagonal--hallmark of first waves--from 87.972 to 83.7625.
If I'm right, price should retreat a bit toward the classic 61.8% level at 86.3396, and then fall hard--and I mean very hard, with a gap--toward the levels below 80, followed by another pause and a small retreat, and another fall, thereby completing a set of 5 distinct waves . Should price follow the path of my forecast to that point, we would have a definite confirmation on hand that a Supercycle bear wave has indeed ended.
The final target of this Supercycle bull wave of INR vs. USD? It's too early and too far ahead to hazard a guess, but as per EWT principles, it should be somewhere close to 44. Yes. 1$ = ₹44. I hope I live to see that day. It's going to take a while, till 2040 perhaps, but we'll get there alright.
