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Technicalanalysisexplained

S&P Hits All-Time Highs: Reversal Incoming?The S&P has hit an all-time high, breaking previous records. However, the chart suggests a potential reversal as it struggles to break the resistance at the 0.5 Fibonacci level ($6,019.68). Currently, the S&P is holding at the support level of $5,862.46. To maintain its bullish momentum, it must stay above this support. If it fails, the next support level is $5,772.72. A breakdown below these levels could trigger a broader market decline. This analysis is for educational purposes, and I hope the TradingView moderators respect that. My goal is to educate and build a strong community, providing transparent insights into the stock market. If you find this content valuable, please hit the like button. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments I'm happy to help. Thank you!
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
HDFC - The Controversy UnleashedHere is the HDFC Chart published on July 22nd (inside my article) - "Nifty Analysis - The No-Nonsense "0" Indicator Strategy" Now - compare HDFC's price action on Sep 24th - Precisely following the defined Path in Blue and rising like a Phoenix from the bottom of 1600 levels and breaking the ATH created on Jul 2023 Now by next week - End of September, HDFC would have the a Final Dip to test 1757 levels and then blast beyond the ATH of 1795 lifting Nifty to New Heights and the Target of 26,430 In this entire analysis - we didn't use any Indicators and No "Ifs & Buts". The Top 10 heavy weight constituents of Nifty were decoded, the Nifty's Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly Charts were analyzed for both Candlestick Patterns and Chart Patterns with Targets. Once Targets were identified - and basis the status of each of the Top 10 heavy weights, the probable timeline required to reach the target was identified 1. From the Index's (Nifty) price action - the future of individual stocks were determined 2. From the Stock's price action - The Nifty's direction was determined Only when both matches - the prediction is accurate - just like how we do Division / Multiplication in Maths to re-confirm our arithmetic We don't depend on ANY NEWS or ANY Expert Opinion or ANY Technical Indicators to guide us. Because, these factors don't handle both Internal and External elements. Either they talk about a Sector but not a stock or they talk about the historical values of a Stock (example: RSI, MACD, EMA, DMA, Bollinger Bands uses historical values of stock). The Indicators become handicapped when it has to consider the outside elements and hence loses it accuracy and value. Learn to Stand on your Own 2 Legs... Ignore the Noise... Don't follow the Wise... Make your Own Spice...
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by Stocks-n-Trends
BTC Daily Chart Bears Last Push Before Bulls Take Off!BTC is forming A Descending triangle on the daily, it's a huge bear formation. The Price Target of the triangle being so slow to the 200day MA gives me a lot of reason to believe we'll see at least 35k. Maybe in a few days after the MA Catches up to the price target On the weekly we had a golden cross on the 50/200 moving averages. So this being a final correction on the Daily is no surprise before things really get interesting
Short
by Tracking_Technicals
Nifty - Surgical Precision Target & CorrectionOn Weekly Chart - After the Cup and Handle BO - Nifty retested the BO zone and bounced forming a Rounding Bottom BO. The Target for RB is 21820. The Multi-year trendline resistance is likely to cross around 21900-22000. Given India Vix BO, Nifty might face sharp correction after testing 21820-21900 levels. Keep a tab on individual stocks and their support levels After reaching the Target of Rounding Bottom BO at 21,820 - Nifty faced with a Sharp Correction Precisely from the target level This is the speciality of Technical Analysis. Technical Analysis is NOT based on Hope / Expectation / Trust on Management / Company / not a Future Forward state. A Chart Pattern is formed by "Herd Consensus" - How Majority People Behave, How Big Players / Operators create a situation of Demand / Panic Selling manipulating the minds of Majority Retailers. Technical Analysis is simply a Scientific & Mathematical model of Human Behaviour and I see it as my Bhagavad Gita / Holy Bible / Quran. It already encompasses Hyped News messages from Media, Fraudulent attempts of some company management, Actions by Regulators, Company's product focus, future vision everything and is engraved in stone and hence cannot be changed. This is why and how Technical Analysis works successfully Disclaimer: Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions. If you like our detailed analysis, please do rate us with your Likes, Boost and share your comments -Team Stocks-n-Trends
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Stocks-n-Trends
#Banknifty Trading Near Important Support ZoneOn Daily Timeframe, BANKNIFTY trading at important support zone. Time to wait for either breakdown or reversal for the Banknifty. Case 1: Consolidation Move - Banknifty can consolidate near this support level before the strong movement - Consolidation zone is nearly 500 points from 44000 to 44500 level Case 2: Breakdown Move - Confirmation for breakdown will be if Banknifty starts trading and sustain below 43500 level - Downside rally nearly 2500+ points expected in case of breakdown - Intermediate support expected near 42500 level - Short Trader can place there stop loss if banknifty starts trading above 44550 level Case 3: Long Side Move - Long side movement expected in case banknifty starts trading and sustain above 44550 level - Above this level banknifty can go upto the 46400-46500+ level. - Intermediate resistance expected near 45500 level - Long trader can place there stop loss if banknifty starts trading below 43500 level. To be continue. We will keep posting next update in comment section....
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by TradZoo
2
Learn the KEY PRINCIPLES of Technical Analysis In the today's article, we will discuss the absolute basics of trading - 3 key principles of technical analysis. 1️⃣History Repeats History tends to repeat itself in the Forex market. Certain trends are cyclical and may reemerge in a predictable manner, certain key levels are respected again and again over time. Take a look at the example: Silver perfectly respected a historical horizontal resistance in 2011 that was respected in 1980 already. Moreover, the price action before and after the tests of the underlined zone were absolutely identical. 2️⃣Priced In All relevant information about a currency pair: economical and political events, rumors, and facts; is already reflected in a price. When the FED increased the rate 26th of July by 25 bp, EURUSD bounced instead of falling. Before the rate hike, the market was going down on EXPECTATIONS of a rate hike. The release of the news was already price in. 3️⃣Pattern DO Work Some specific price models can be applied for predicting the future price movements. Technicians strongly believe that certain formations - being applied and interpreted properly, can give the edge on the market. Depending on the trading style, different categories of patterns exist: harmonic patterns, price action patterns, wave patterns, candlestick patterns... Above, I have listed various price action patterns that are applied by many traders and investors as the main tool for analyzing the financial markets. If you believe in these 3 principles , you are an inborn technician! Study technical analysis and learn to apply these principles to make money in trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
8
How To Find Trend Trading OpportunitiesTrend trading is a style of trading. It specifies what you are looking for when trading a specific market. Style Trend trading sets you on a path to looking for a clear and defined uptrend and downtrend. Anything outside of that realm is no longer considered trending. A clear uptrend defines price forming a path of repetitive high prices called higher highs (last highest price to buy an asset before price declined) and higher lows(last discounted price to buy an asset before the price increased). While a clear downtrend defines price forming a path of repetitive lower prices called lower highs (last highest to buy an asset before price declines to a new discounted price) and lower lows(last highest(cheapest) price to buy an asset before price increased.) If you desire to be a trend trader you want to see the market creating a clear and defined uptrend or downtrend to call it an opportunity. Ignore the drama The next best thing to do is to avoid assets that are not trending. I prefer to trade the forex market. So, if I see any currency pairs absent of a clear trend, I immediately move on to the next pair. It's better on my mind to wait for my opportunity than to create one out of thin air. The more pairs that are not trending the better. This way, I have a small group of currency pairs to watch and trade. Limit the small mindset I have no idea what trades will win or lose. When I'm in my right frame of mind I don't think about the opportunity not working instantly. Which is why I swing trade. I like to lose my money slowly vs. fast as a day trader. It helps me stay clear of telling myself I'm wrong on a daily basis. I found I focus better on the outcome of the trade when I remind myself the market will tell me that I'm wrong. This way, as every outcome plays out I can handle each winning trade and losing with little emotion as possible. Is this always easy to do? Nope! I'd dare not fool you. But it does make it easier to setup for the next series of trades when I only focus on my "trend trading" opportunities. Quick recap You'll do better to find trend trading opportunities by focusing solely on currency pairs that are trending and ignoring the ones that are not. Its wise to limit your mindset by believing you're wrong choosing to trend trade. Let the market tell you when your setup is wrong vs. you telling yourself you're wrong before the trade plays out. This allows you to focus on the outcome of the trade to being overly emotional. I really hope this helps and that you were able to find a gentle takeaway. If you enjoyed this read, please like the post and comment on what your takeaway was. Happy trading 🧡 Shaquan
Education
by ShaquanLopez
5
GJ - DAILY PROJECTION + ANALYSISFor me to enter i would need GJ to come down and hit the current fib and 158.500 or 157.500 to buy it up. At 164.500 I'll need to assess what price wants to do to there because it can drop from there or it can retrace temporarily and fake everyone into selling at that fib only to continue bullish and raid everyone's stop losses. (I would if I was a bank) This is probably my 1st choice of outcome as it just screams pure evil and hedge funds. Now as you can see - there are 2 bullish options and they both just depend on the depth of the retracement at the fib. Basically, it depends on how pissed off the banks are on a Monday morning (today). If they feel like running everyone out of the market, they will flood the market and cause that deep retracement at about 156.500 or 157.500 or lower and THEN continue bullish. Or they will only cause a shallow liquidity raid and let some of us live at roughly 162.500 or slightly lower and then continue bullish. Remember - whatever I say here is not verbatim. ANYTHING and everything can happen. I am always re assessing and readjusting my analysis's - as some of my projections will change mid-week and I'll then have a new projection depending on how price plays out and also depending on this week's news as there's a lot. (I don't trade news) I will say this again and again - you MUST adapt to the market. Just because your projection at the beginning of the week says one thing it doesn't mean you need to stick to it just to prove to everyone on trading view and on your Instagram that you are 'right'. You will end up losing all your money and end up deleting your insta and blocking everyone. During the week, if your analysis plays out differently to your Sunday projection so be it! Who cares if your wrong? Change it and adapt to the market conditions and be confident. That is the difference between professional and amateur traders. There is no shame in being wrong in your analysis. What's wrong is being stubborn and wanting to always be right just to prove a point. The market doesn't give a f*ck if you are right or wrong it will just eliminate you with everyone else. The traders who adapt and evolve with the market conditions are the ones that make it and thrive. The sooner you can do that, the sooner you will make money consistently. :)
by Pmilanoxx_
GJ - MONTHLY TIMEFRAME PROJECTION + ANALYSISPrice is now hovering in a Fib from the previous high on the Monthly TF. It has reacted to it and dipped but I'm not too sure how it is going to continue reacting for the time being. I only trade 1 or 2 pairs max at a time and GJ is one of them but i won't be entering until it breaks out indefinitely or shows me some kind of direction/bias. It can either respect market structure and continue to make a LH and continue bearish or it can remove all liquidity and continue bullish (Which makes more sense). It looks too pretty to be bearish - So I am favoring it to go bullish at some stage. Again - I'm not sure when but I have a couple areas that I'm waiting for it reach and give me confirmation at on the lower time frames (Haven't uploaded yet). And just like AJ It depends on the depth of the pullback and how much liquidity is sitting beneath price currently because its looking like the most cost-effective path for the banks to take price higher and remove all sellers. Disclaimer: This is how I personally draw my charts and it's the first time I have started posting them. So, if there's not many drawings or explanations it's because i don't write them all out or draw them all out for my own analysis. I like my charts to be quite clean so i put as little on them as possible. :)
Long
by Pmilanoxx_
EUR USD - Market still prefers sellersG'day, Previous analysis attached below back in June 7th. Enjoy. Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral, however, as outline below - will be buying until the OL, offers a highly probable zones where a confirmed sell break and a confirmed sell from the Original level. Starting the supply and demand imbalance. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move (positional trade). Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. EUR USD - in a huge downward curve towards parity (most likely beyond). Monthly Monthly zone reached 1/1 (or thereabouts with a final close generating a low of 0.9948), expected a reactive buy as a fresh demand zone. Due to the curve being so strong with no real structure pivots on the bearish move, the probable zone of price pivoting to is 1.06 (capped) as a PCP level is hidden here within the Weekly, Monthly Combo. Structurally, the market cycle here has a key move to go - heading down to an untested structure below at the OL (back in 2001). From a buying standpoint, a reactive buy as price looks to retest from a daily pivot towards 1.00 will indicate a smaller curve needing to be broken from a newly formed trading range (review daily). The monthly curve previously from June 2002 - Nov 2002, shows a nice consolidative pattern so here price will look to form a similar structure after the PCP is hit. Weekly 1 - note the reactive tap here, upon every FL especially a monthly, price will reject the supply imbalance and now create a buying demand market allbeit for a short duration. The likelihood for this is from the strong curve in play, which offers a PCP level as shown in purple, crossed with a monthly. The high chance of this chance hitting for buying targets is key for; how PCP levels are drawn and to take risk adjusted counter moves, knowing the fresh level here can offer a chance of retesting. (structure below still has a high probable pathway as price action is minimal here). Applying the pink curve as a steep curve adjustment will show price has a disjointed pathway which price can pivot towards, reject and form the weekly trading range. (see chart below 1 weekly) Chart 1 - weekly Bi-annual chart For position sellers, it's clear the long term move is down to the red box in structure. Short term buying cover opportunity From the daily chart - price has created a low forming a strong daily imbalance between the 0.9948-1.005 range of 102 pips, this now offers the high probability of price to revert back once breaking the curve to form a retest of the zone allowing the opportunity for a reactive buy of the zone. Subject to the daily pivot point, using the Fibonacci sequence - for a strong retest expect 0.705 to be a level of high interest as this aligns with the zone for a reactive buying point. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. I f you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII We've reached 800Followers! Thank you!
by LupaCapital
#BTC/USDT 2HR CHART UPDATE !!Hello, community members welcome to another BTC/USDT chart update. If you find this update helpful, shoot the like button follow and share your views in the comment section. As we can see from the chart mentioned above that BTC is still trading inside a price range-bound. BTC was unable to break above the $20k resistance level and was trying hard to break above. BTC broke above the resistance level. In the current scenario, BTC broke above the triangle pattern and currently retesting the upper trend line. Here BTC will rally towards the upper resistance level at the price level of $21.7k Let’s see how BTC performs in the upcoming hours and will BTC is able to break the upcoming resistance level !! NOTE: This is not financial advice. This is for education purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or losses you generate from your investments. DO YOUR RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. Thank you.
by Domino_Crypto
Copper - where are we from a technical perspective?Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
COMEX:HG1!
by The_STA
BTC LONG TERM : IS IT READY TO PUMP ???Hello !! Welcome to the quick update of BTCUSDT. It was trading in the range of 37300 to 39800 for a long time. It is still in that channel and I can see a larger bear flag that was about to break but BTC managed to enter the channel again. I think we are still not bullish on BTC as it has a number of resistance that it needs to break before hitting 48000. The points we need to consider are if BTC breaks R1, R2, and R3 i.e. 40800, 42200, and 43400 respectively. If it manages to break these resistances, it will touch 48000 without any doubt. I think it's better we wait for the right moment to enter any trade. As of now, all altcoins are pumped around 5 % to 10 % and we may see some retests again. Please be safe with your positions and invest wisely. This is not financial advice, please do your own research before investing and we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits. Please like and share and comment on this idea if you liked it.
Long
by ScramblerG
CALM SELLUJ created a relative equal high after a break and retest of a H4 rising channel support. There was a target area for a liquidity grab above the relative equal high where price was expected to push to before dropping again. After that area was hit, a 50% fibonacci retracement was created on the M30 timeframe. The profit projection area from this 50% fibonacci retracement lines up with a H1 indecision level which is TP1. TP2 is H4 lower low which is also just above the D1 timeframe support. Feel free to comment and let me know what you think. Please like and follow for future analysis'.
Short
by Toppa
2
Bitcoin Price Manipulation Continues Hey all Gamblers Paradise here with another crucial update on the Bitcoin Price Action. Just wanted to remind you to please like and comment on this post if you have found use for it in your trading analysis and be sure to also Like & Follow my Trading View account to get these updates as soon as they come out! The SMART TRADERS are SMASHING the LIKE, REP and FOLLOW buttons on Trading View because you want these updates and insights into what in the hell is going on with Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies. Its always a Gamblers Paradise in trading and that is why staying informed and having a game plan with strategies for the price going in either direction We were unfortunately not able to hold the highs we broke as a support level after getting rejected off the 200 EMA daily after volume dropped off. We are still holding within our ascending triangle which is why this trade is not yet closed. Using the white trend line that we started at our bottom made @ $36k just before breaking the multi-structure resistance level, and then using the .55 Fib level which has been our resistance, you can see we have a clear ascending triangle formation. We also have another ascending triangle of a bit longer scale, if use the same resistance level of the .55 fib and then use the wick low white trend line that has been tested at our macro double bottom at 32k and then again at $34k you can see another ascending triangle. These are marked by in the corner for both ascending triangles with a Green 1 and a Green 2. In a bullish scenario this would be the first big key step to starting our second parabolic flag pole after our meteoric rise from $3800 to $64k. Our first price target would be to break our $45.5k wick tops and also the .55 fib ext at $46.5k which this move should bring us up to right about $48k-$50k which would also break our ascending triangle to the upside. Then as long as we are supported on top of the .55 fib level, its a move back up to the .618 which was already broken and also price action supported by the Daily 13EMA and 21EMA above the .618 level when we made our ATH of 69k. We should be seeing us stop short of the .618 and find support above the $58k and then $64k for some consolidation and then just blast straight through the .618 fib level, up to about $74k. Unfortunately we also do have 3 a bearish possibilities to look at as well. We do have 3 overlaying and extending symmetrical triangles. Symm. Trinagles are continuation patterns of either bullish or bearish moves depending on the previous move. Short Term Symmetrical Triangle: Red 1 A breakdown from our recent rejection off the daily 200 EMA has seen a drop of about 15.8% and this symmetrical triangle is marked with a Red 1. This drop would most likely happen within the next 2 weeks Mid-Term Symmetrical Triangle: Red 2 A breakdown using our first move from the bottom of 32k up to the high of 45k, which would be the text book extrapolation point to use, would make us look at another 25% drop which would bring us to test our lowest point in about 9 months and would test the $28.5k wick low from back in June 2021. In this extrapolation we also do have the chance for major fake outs, which would break below the $28.5k low and wick down to our 200EMA Weekly which at the break down point of the symmetrical triangle would be around $26.5k to $27.5k. Longer Term Symmetrical Triangle: Red 3 Or Is this Symm. Trinagle the bearish SCREW YOU pattern that market makers are going to pull? If so we would be extrapolating a 2nd flag pole down of about 44%. This would be measuring from our falling wedge breakdown top of $58k down to our $32k bottom which also broke our Weekly time frame 13EMA and 21EMA and would most likely be taken out the longest symmetrical triangle we have marked by a Red 3. This drop in price would measure out to drop us below our Weekly 200EMA. Which has only happened twice in Bitcoin history - the $3100 bottom in 2018 and then the Covid Crash of 2020.. Bot of which the price action was still within a bear market. The Weekly 200EMA started is path at the bottom of the bear market in 2015, which supported both bottoms never closing candles below it. So we have twice where it held with no candle closes below and twice where candles closed below this Weekly 200EMA. Given the pattern of 2/2 and the laws of 3 pattern we should see another two Weekly 200EMA holds with no candles to close below it. But this extrapolation would have us breaking below the Weekly 200EMA and move down to the our .382 FIb Ext. level. Which for bitcoin is the routine habitual move in a fib ext. after being rejected from the .618 fib level. In all cases there is merit for the price action move. This is a a time of waiting if you do not have a position in the market right now and waiting for confirmations to start happening. Right now with my current position still being in from $36.7k. I have a staggered stop profit limits setup. And if I am stopped out also a buy back setup. If the drop starts as of the beginning of this week most likely starting tomorrow when the markets open back up with a rejection from the daily 13EMA or 21EMA then my stop profit + Buy Back Limits & new stop loss setup looks like this: Starting Monday, if the drop happens in about a week, which would be a rejection toward the end of Red 1 by either the daily 55EMA or 100EMA , then my stop profit limits + Buy Back limits & new stop loss setups looks like this:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gamblers_Paradise
3
EUR/USD: FED with chance of policy monetary tightening For tomorrow, we have 2 important news in U.S. Dollar about Consumer Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims in USA. But, I interesting that you read these sentence: >>>key inflation data which could confirm the start of the Federal Reserve’s policy tightening process. >>> Investors have been revising their forecasts for ECB rate hikes after the bank caught them off guard last week, with President Christine Lagarde flagging for the first time that monetary tightening was a possibility this year. >>>The Consumer Price Index print may offer new indications about the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, and investors are bracing for higher-than expected numbers that would signal more aggressive rate hikes. So, we have a similar situation in the past week that the European Central Bank President and Mrs. Christine Lagarde made an awesome Euro rally in the Forex market when the past week Lagarde announce it. So, Federal Reserve want to make a tighening in their policy monetary in America as inflation data may to confirm it to begin it the aggresive rates hikes. So, this it's just my sight in this market. I look Euro bearish in front of U.S. Dollar Now, I add this screenshot in H1 timeframe where I look that Euro/U.S. Dollar forming this bearish channel flag in H1 as investor await for tomorrow the important news in U.S. Dollar. There're some sentiment in the market that investor it's put in eyes in the possible tightening in the USA economy for here and the next months. But, You can to look in H4 good that we could to make a bearish signal or sell-off in Euro. So guys, the details of my trading are here. I entry around of $1.1426 USD and my SL at $1.1460 USD (-34 pips) and my Target to $1.1318 USD (+110 pips)
Short
by harisonhbn9718
BTC - Breakdown of Market Participants & Structure 1#So I thought I would put some thoughts together breaking down how I am looking at the Macro View of BTC at present, as there is a lot of negativity in the space right now and on CT (Crypto Twitter ). A good way to clear you head from the noise is to step back and look at the chart on the macro level (see the forests from the trees). For simplicity, this analysis will look at naked price action and market structure only. From this analysis, we can discuss where money that is biased by these principals may look to re-enter the market. NOTE: I would advise you look for confluence with other tools such as indicators and moving averages when making market decisions (happy to discuss these in future posts in this series if people want – let me know in the comments below). Please consider this analysis for education and entertainment purposes only (not financial advice). First let’s discuss the doodles & squiggles I have drawn and why they have been included in this chart. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT Firstly, let’s look at the horizontal thin black and gold lines on the chart. This is a tool called the Fibonacci (Fib) Retracement tool, and the levels are based on the Fibonacci sequence which is a numerical sequence of numbers found in patterns in nature that are repeated almost everywhere. The numbers (and corresponding price levels are drawn in brackets on the far right of the chart). I have drawn our Macro fib from the COVID 2020 March bottom to our new ATH at ~$69K (see blue arrows). Looking at these fib levels, we can see these have provided respected price levels of support and resistance . For example the 0.786 level held support when we were mucking about trying to break the prior ATH of ~$20K in November / December 2021, 0.5 level currently as well as many points through the mess in the specified Supply / Demand zone (red and green horizontal rectangles) trading range and the 0.382 & 0.236 fib levels through the start and end period of 2021. It is important to note that we are showing respect to these levels on the way down in our current down trend which means there is money in the game that is giving conviction to this Technical Analysis Tool. I would expect we lose the current 0.5 fib level we are currently respecting at the time of writing over the next few days if we don’t see any volume come in at the current levels. Most fib traders are looking for the 'Golden Pocket' for re-entry positions ( gold lines in the tool). Fib traders who have money / profits that are sitting on the side lines, generally look to take exposure again at the 0.618 - 0.65 levels (or a 61.8% to 65% retrenchment in price for those that like to think in percentages). This range and all fib levels is significant in nature and similar patterns are shown in social behaviour (I recommend you do some self-teaching if you are not over this - there is plenty of good free resources on this topic out there and is an interesting read). I like to think of the Golden Pocket range as the area of 'Max Pain' for 'underwater traders' and often forms good areas of liquidity for Fib Traders to attack with low slippages on exchanges on re-entry. The Golden Pocket fib levels range between the bottom of the green demand zone and the top of a daily Order Block (OB) (blue rectangle in the image), showing some confluence for support in this region. I may do a post in this series on how I view Order Blocks if people are interested - let me know in the comments below. A respected Macro Fib retracement means there is conviction at the macro level in looking for confluence with support at the 'Golden Pocket' range. TRADING RANGE ( SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE) Simple rules of trading ranges are; once you reach the top, assume we are going back to the bottom unless proven otherwise (i.e. a break of the upper levels of the trading range) and visa versa. While the trading range (ranging between ~$42K and ~$29K) I have drawn is traditionally not how you would specify a trading range, the Demand and Supply zones drawn on this chart have shown clear indication of price level support and resistance through 2021 (the top and bottom definition of a trading range) and has been a zone where BTC has enjoyed returning to for some re-accumulation of positions / exposure. A strong indication of supply and demand is evident from the large 'wicks' on the highs and lows of candles (noting we are viewing the chart on the daily time frame). Where these wicks align at price levels, we can deduce that there are confluence between net buyers and sellers targeting these prices to gain exposure / close positions respectively, forming this idea of a trading range. This price behaviour generally dictates price moments until it no longer does. As discipline traders, we identify these patterns and use the top and bottom levels as "if this, then that" decision events. We can see the specified trading range between the top Red Supply Zone (Selling Pressure) and below Green Demand Zone (Buying Pressure) horizontal rectangle ; starting with our first major trouble with our parabolic uptrend at the start of 2021. This zone or trading range was respected with the 'Chinese BTC Mining Exodus" dump and established local bottom through the blood red month of May and Jun / July 2021 period; and we have just regained this region again in our current ~85 day down trend from our ATH . As discussed above, re-entering the trading range, we assume we are visiting the low of the range before reversing. As we did not reach the top of the trading range on the relief rally from the weekly OB (there were a number of tell-tale confluences suggesting this would not be the case) and rejected at the red arrow at the red point 3. This bearish price action further strengthens to a trading range trader that we are visiting the lower level of the trading ranges. NOTE: again as with all trading ranges, we visit the top, then the bottom, then the top etc of the range until we don't. Based on this analysis alone we could be 'playing in the sand box' so to speak within this range for a while. PARABOLIC TREND LINES Drawn on the chart is a thick Red line (drawn using touch points during September 2020 before our parabolic uptrend which align with our liquidity grab market trend reversal 'dippy dip' at the end of July 2021) and a Green trend line (drawn using the same point to start our fib retracement levels discussed above (i.e bottom of March COVID Crash) and different touch points during September 2020 before our parabolic uptrend). These are called parabolic uptrend lines because if you keep drawing these on our start of 2021 parabolic uptrend run, these lines resemble the tangential linear direction of the parabolic curve from that point of the curve. They are useful as when we break key support line, they indicate a fundamental breakdown of current market structure. A good demonstrator of this is shown by the Blue line, which once we broke (while we did attempt to regain this line) indicated fundamental structural issues with the sustainability of price levels and resulted in a 'Flush' of the prior months price action. The Red trend line below, we expected the price to intersect with the ~$40K region. This trend line showed confluence with the top of our trading range. We initially bounced as expected off these levels. Traders who would have put their stop losses below the end of September 2021 bounce (which was the confirmation point for many traders of a higher low and confirmed the uptrend to the underwhelming new ATH of $69K), created a liquidity pool for Whales to target. The expected liquidity zone also suggested this price level would be a good area to look for a recovery of trend to the up-side. However as shown by the lack of low volume , this turned out to be a ‘bounce for ants’ and we eventually broke down from this trend line . I expect this trend line to form resistance on a potential bounce to the current trend if that does in happen and we interact with the line from below (hence why I have marked this as Red). The Green trend line below is our next parabolic line of interest (and potentially our last). While this does not align with our trading range where one would expect it may first intercept with price with our current trajectory, it could form support in the act of a large liquidity grab / capitulation event which wicks on the daily chart below the demand zone and quickly re-enters the trading range. I believe this may be needed to reverse the current bearish trend in BTC and is often associated with reversals and breakout of a trading range. Traders will often refer to this as a fake out. For similar reasons above, this line signifies points of interest we should pay attention to when and if price meet / intersects this line. LONG TERM TREND LINES The Black downward directing diagonal trend lines dictating the highs and lows of our current trend clearly show the current intra-cycle price direction is bearish and will continue until these lines are broken. It is noted we have traded in this pattern now downward without any considerable relief rallies for 85 days. This is unusual, and will need a failed decent relief rally if prices are to fall down at our current rate to the extreme lows called for in CT. Relief rallies are needed for healthy continuation of trend direction (both up and down) as they allow traders to take profits on the way up or on the way down from long and short positions, and provide clean retry points to continue the trend. The fact we have traded in these trend lines for so long to be is an indication of how over sold we currently are and suggests we should be looking for confluence with other indicators to support this thesis. These line are pretty self-explanatory, however when we break them they are the first sign of repair. The 'story' of these lines are some what explained through the above and shown with the orange and red arrows at point 1,2 and 3 respectively. I would detail these points, but as this post is already lengthy I think from the above you can work out what is happen here and why they are / were significant and strong supporting signals for traders to respect and expect the continuation of the current bearish trend. If and when we break and confirm these trend lines (hopefully to the upside), we then need to work out if we are getting a to failed relief rally or a change of trend by locking in a higher low and a higher high and start to see resistance levels flip into support. GREEN BOX - POINT OF CONFLUENCE While the above by all means does not guarantee price will drop to this level and if and when it does will not mean we will get a reversal of trend. In Crypto, anything can happen and the above should all be taken as dubious speculation (after all it is all just doodles on a chart haha). However as with anything in life when trying to work out the whys and how's and the mysteries of human behaviour, it is prudent to follow the money (as money incentivises behaviour and effort); and when it comes to BTC , the money comes from the market participants; and the portion that influences their decision in this market on the above concepts (Traders and possibly the Whales) will be looking at these price areas; and as they often make up the majority of trading at critical pivot points in the market, it is worth understanding what could be important to these market participants when price reaches these levels. That being said, the confluence on the above concepts is why the indicated 'Green Box' is where it is and if we range down to this level then based on price action analysis alone, this would be a point of interest to expect a bounce and review to see if we have enough volume to start a trend reversal. Confluence with other TA such as indicators I would advise using which if people wish I might do a post in this series (let me know in the comments below). For context with what has been drawn on the chart; if we have not reached our market top ATH this cycle (as measured from the halving), then a visit to the Green Box and down to the Green line would be the worst case outcome I would be expecting. To remain bullish from this point we want to see strong volume and a wicks only below the Demand zone (any substantial trading below the demand zone would require caution. If we break the green line to the down side, I think it is very possible we have made our ATH (All Time High) this cycle at ~69K (barely a ~3.5X from the last cycles ATH at ~$20K). Based on Market structure and Price action alone; there is very little support below the Demand zone , and if we break it and confirm then the low 20s and then low teens would follow. I hope the above was useful / insightful and hopefully an interring read. Please comment your throughs below – these posts are intended to promote positive discussions in our space.
Long
by Brodie