Technicalindicators
USDJPY: Important Breakout 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY broke and closed above a major falling trend line on a daily
after unemployment, us data release.
Fundamentals are strongly supporting the dollar again and probabilities are high
that the pair will keep growing.
I expect a bullish continuation now.
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🛠️ Trading Tools Cheat SheetFibonacci Levels, Pitchfork, Fibonacci Arcs, Gann Square, Gann Fan, and Elliot Wave are technical analysis tools used in trading to identify potential levels of support and resistance, anticipate future price movements, and make informed investment decisions. These tools are based on mathematical calculations and relationships between price, volume, and time. They are widely used by traders to gain insights into market trends and make investment decisions based on past market data. However, it's important to note that these tools are not a guarantee of future performance and can produce false signals, so they should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and with a solid understanding of market dynamics.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
A technical analysis tool that uses horizontal lines to indicate areas of potential support or resistance based on the Fibonacci sequence.
🔹 Pitchfork
A technical analysis tool that uses three parallel lines to identify potential levels of support and resistance and to anticipate future price movements.
🔹 Fibonacci Arcs
A technical analysis tool that consists of several curved lines that originate from two extreme points (high and low) and converge at the fibonacci levels.
🔹 Gann Square
A technical analysis tool that uses a grid to identify potential support and resistance levels and to predict future price movements based on the relationship between time and price.
🔹 Gann Fan
A technical analysis tool that uses diagonal lines to identify potential levels of support and resistance and to anticipate future price movements.
🔹 Elliot Wave
A technical analysis tool that tries to identify patterns in financial market data, particularly in stock market prices, which in turn can be used to make investment decisions. It's based on the idea that market prices move in predictable waves.
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📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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GJ - WEEKLY PROJECTIONSimilar to my previous post on the Monthly.
These are my HTF projections So obviously, there's not much detail on them but I am a swing trader and I like to project from the monthly downwards as there is a lot that is missed if you don't analyze from the monthly down in my opinion.
I have deleted the monthly fib because it clutters my chart but keeping this in mind you can see its reacted at the monthly fib and now, we are currently sitting at the weekly/daily fib to go bullish. Also - If anyone has ever told you that a 'head and shoulders pattern' is great for determining reversals, make sure you go get a lobotomy and forget it ASAP because they are one of the biggest Liquidity Raids/Price Manipulation setups you will ever find and rarely ever play out like your courses tell you.
Just like AJ - It looks too pretty and too perfect to continue as a 'Head and shoulders' into a downtrend. I would be very surprised if it did, and the only way I could ever see it doing that is if it has a massive liquidity raid and manipulates everyone out of the market before reversing and becoming bearish.
But - I never say never because anything is possible, and you have to always keep an open mind otherwise you will never make money in these markets.
At the moment - its looking like GJ is accumulating sellers because most sellers are taught to sell when they see a 'Head and shoulders'. I'm thinking it will temporarily trend bearish into the lower fib to remove liquidity first before it reverses to continue bullish after removing all buyers.
Don't forget that the weekly/monthly Fib has not been touched yet so I'm waiting for price to trend bullish to fulfill it. From there we have a few options but i will assess and adjust as the week goes on. It may trend bullish, hit the Fib and retrace to remove more liquidity and then either tank or continue bullish removing all sellers and also fill that imbalance to the left. Thats what i would like to see but it's way too early to tell.
:)
GJ - MONTHLY TIMEFRAME PROJECTION + ANALYSISPrice is now hovering in a Fib from the previous high on the Monthly TF. It has reacted to it and dipped but I'm not too sure how it is going to continue reacting for the time being. I only trade 1 or 2 pairs max at a time and GJ is one of them but i won't be entering until it breaks out indefinitely or shows me some kind of direction/bias.
It can either respect market structure and continue to make a LH and continue bearish or it can remove all liquidity and continue bullish (Which makes more sense).
It looks too pretty to be bearish - So I am favoring it to go bullish at some stage. Again - I'm not sure when but I have a couple areas that I'm waiting for it reach and give me confirmation at on the lower time frames (Haven't uploaded yet). And just like AJ It depends on the depth of the pullback and how much liquidity is sitting beneath price currently because its looking like the most cost-effective path for the banks to take price higher and remove all sellers.
Disclaimer: This is how I personally draw my charts and it's the first time I have started posting them. So, if there's not many drawings or explanations it's because i don't write them all out or draw them all out for my own analysis. I like my charts to be quite clean so i put as little on them as possible. :)
How to trade markets in both directions using true SMC conceptsHello Traders, in this post we aim to explain how we can trade the markets in both directions. Since this comes under the concept of liquidity, it is very logical to trade in both the directions of the market. Please pay attention to the annotations made on the chart.
Happy Trading
Team Lamda
BTCUSDTThe long-term downtrend line of the RSI has broken upwards on the weekly time frame. Do you think this trend can be considered a pullback to the broken level with a positive divergence?
Do you think we should react to the midline of the long-term descending channel from here?
Of course, there is still a high probability of seeing the $13,000 range, but what if we have an advance and again a downward trend!?!?
We would be happy to hear your comments
APEUSDTHello dear friends
On the daily time frame, the positive divergence of the RSI with the downtrend line has created a bearish wedge pattern for us. Until the $5.584 range is fully consumed, the bullish outlook is weak.
But if the range of $2.618 is maintained, we can hope for the completion of the wedge pattern.
On lower timeframes, the drawn bearish scenario is very likely. However, if the range of $2.618 is maintained, the possibility of a bullish scenario will also be strengthened.
We would be happy to hear your comments
SPX: Key SUPPORT + RESISTANCE levels to pay ATTENTION!• The index is correcting this morning, trying to frustrate yesterday’s bullish reaction;
• If it drops to the point of filling the previous gap at 3,790, the index will lose momentum, and it might be hard for it to recover again;
• In theory, the SPX has more upside left, at least to retest its 21 ema, or maybe the 3,911 again, but if it frustrates yesterday’s reaction, it might just seek the next support at 3,744 without any decent bounce;
• Only if the index breaks the 21 ema + 3,911 again it will convince me of a stronger bullish reaction. As long as it stays below these key points, there’s absolutely nothing interesting going on with it, especially with many other stocks doing better/clearer movements;
• Either way, I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
APE Squeeze $ Alert we got our breakout before the market closes last Friday as we spoke about it on our live streaming, now we holding above that major support box (1.85$/2$) if we did hold above that box, we going to have another pump to test our first profit taking around the 2.43$, then the second profit taking and squeeze area above the 2.80$.
DOGE 2023 $we have a critical area to hold above the 0.065$, if we hold above that support we going to see huge bullish momentum till the breakout zone the 0.11$ if we break it we going to see another pump for 2 profit taking first around the 15 cent and the second around the 22 cent.
on the other hand if we broke below our ascending line , we going to have double bottom first above the 0.50$, if we don't hold it is means we going to see a new low for this year above the 0.28 cent .
TSLA: The BEAR TREND continues! Next KEY POINTS [UPDATED].• TSLA is in an incredibly sharp bear trend, and there’s not a single evidence that it’ll find a bottom yet;
• In the 1h chart, we see a purple trend line, connecting its previous tops, along with the 21 ema. Both points are working as clear resistance levels;
• Only if TSLA breaks this dual-resistance level it might have some chance of recovering – remember, “if”. So far, there’s no bottom sign confirmed yet;
• Even if TSLA bounces, the 21 emaq in the daily chart is another resistance level, and TSLA can’t break this 21 ema properly since September;
• In the lack of bullish reaction, TSLA is just heading towards our next technical support at $126, as I already mentioned in my previous public analysis (link below this post);
• For now, let’s pay attention to these key points. I’ll keep you updated.
Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
EUR/USD +5.42% 12/16Entered this oversold position early this AM. think it was like 7:15 CST (got into work early) had inventory starting at 730 so set a lower profit target but had profit/risk at 1.5 made a nice little $57.50 off 50,000 units (~$1,060 USD) while I was away doing my work. Checking back in & think I planned accordingly for current market behavior. LMK what yall think for tips/ tricks/ recommendations please! :)
EUR/USD overbought short +9.4% 12/15/2022 Tried this a bit earlier when RSI started to break trend but was stopped out after seeing a quick profit, trend was still too strong. Entered again when confirming overbought area. +DI started to break its trend and trend downwards, RSI broke trend & candle was starting to close within Bollinger Bands. As I type this has continued a bit further down and you could use the middle bollinger as a take profit yet fighting the trend I did not & recommend not doing that. We shall see if it hits that area later & maybe I'll do an update of where this trade could have landed but I have a Secret Santa & lunch out today for work so don't know if I will have the time :) until next time amigos!
12/2 EUR/USD update Glad I locked in profits when I did. Price reversed and started a small uptrend which would have eaten my profits. See the MACD where it meets the signal line to find equilibrium and then continued up. I could have exited when RSI breached signal line as well for better confirmation but that would have eaten about half of my profit. Let me know what y'all think of this setup today
How to select effective indicators for your strategyNot all indicators are useful: most are not, and some are downright misleading. Previous posts and studies, such as LuxAlgo's(1), determined that effective indicators need to: 1) produce data to support the trader's decision-making process, not substitute it with automated strategies, 2) produce non-redundant infos. But how do you select indicators in practice? Here, I share my own step-by-step process to select effective indicators for your strategy.
My approach is to use a two-stages process: 1) Expansion, 2) Contraction.
This is the same process that happens in our brains when they develop, first there is neuronal and synaptic expansion, creating lots of new connections that are not necessarily efficient, then there is contraction, which weeds out useless, redundant or ineffective connections. Here, the idea is similar.
## Expansion: try all the indicators you want ##
In the first stage, you just try any indicator that sounds like an interesting idea. The way you select the indicators is up to you, either it can be because it sounds like a good idea, or because it's in line with your main strategy (eg, a volatility indicator when your strategy is contrarian).
Whatever criteria you choose, you should:
1) Remain open to new types of indicators potentially outside your main field, as they can broaden your horizons,
2) Remain skeptic of any claims of effectiveness until you test the indicators and see tha they work for yourself (in the second stage: contraction),
3) Study the indicator to understand how it works and why it works. Don't just blindly use an indicator without knowing what it actually represents precisely, otherwise you will get bit by its limitations and false positives at some point in the future, likely when you will have a lot of money on the table to lose!
Once you have selected a set of indicators, or if you have reached the maximum number of indicators you can add in your TradingView plan (as it happens to me!), then you can go to the next step to weed indicators out.
## Contraction: drop everything that isn't directly useful to you##
In the second stage, we will extensively test the indicators for ourselves, on the assets we are interested in, and in others as well, to "field test" them and see if they work in our strategy. Indeed, trading and investment rely on a balance between collecting enough infos and keeping it simple enough (KISS principle(2)) to support our systematic decision-making process, without information overload which can produce decision paralysis.
The contraction/filtering process is more involved than the first stage, because you have to do the manual, dirty work of testing, it takes time, but this is the only way you can see whether the indicator work as intended and that they work for you. No two people will use the same indicator the same way as I explain in another post (3), so bear in mind that some indicators that may not work for someone else may work for you, and inversely an indicator that works for someone else's strategy may not for you, so the popularity of an indicator is no indication of effectiveness.
Here is a step-by-step outline of my process, feel free to add more steps depending on your needs:
1) Signal-to-Noise test: test on weekly and daily. If the indicator can't be reliable, can't produce good signals with low false positives and high true positives on these long timeframes that are much less noisy than shorter timeframes, then they are useless. Some people claim that there are indicators that work exclusively on lower timeframes, I am not trading such smaller timeframes although I can trade down to 15min, so your mileage may vary, but I remain yet to be convinced that this is true.
2) Redundancy test. If you already found a good indicator that works reasonably well for you, then compare any new indicator to this "best" indicator as a benchmark reference point. This will allow to weed out indicators that cannot provide new, non-redundant data. For example, in the chart of this post, I study correlations, which I compare against the signals generated by my RSI+ (alt) indicator which I consider one of my most reliable. Of course, the signal is of a different kind, but it still provides me a reference point as to whether the correlations can provide me with an additional edge or whether I should just stick to using only the RSI+ indicator. In practice, if the new indicator(s) can provide new, non redundant data, as shown by slightly different predictions in different scenarios or maybe a bit earlier, then great, I keep them. If not, for example the indicator does provide reliable info but it would lead me to take the same decisions at the same time, or worse, later than my best indicator, then I remove it.
3) Generalizabiliy test. Test on multiple markets, on mutiple timeframes, to check generalizability: if it doesn't generalize, the model is overfit on one target market's history, and this likely won't even work for the future if this same market, ie, this is an issue often encountered for models made specifically for bitcoin or ethereum.
4) Misleading test. Use bar replay, to check how the indicator behaves in realtime: does it sprout a lot of false positive in realtime, or is it as useful and predictive, or better, in real-time than when used for historical bars? Or worst being repainting indicators rewriting the past, such as pivots or zigzag, they look super accurate aposteriori but it's only because they cheat (see tradingview pinescript fage about that), using bar replay will help you detect them 100% of the time. Bar replay is one of the best tools you have to test indicators, don't underestimate it. Yes, it's time consuming, but it's well worth it, and you'll become quicker and quicker to use it over time with experience. For more information about the different types of repainting indicators, there is an excellent article in the PineScript documentation, it's worth reading even for non-coders(4).
5) Grouping and intra-class comparison. Finally, group indicators on the same study, so you can quickly answer a question eg about volume and volatility, or about market cycles, etc by checking the adequate chart. Otherwise, if you mix indicators between different charts, it will take you longer to analyze and compare the various signals. Also this allows to compare similar indicators between them to see if they really are useful, non-redundant. For example, in the chart above, it's a Correlations grouped study, so I added almost exclusively correlations indicators; while the delta-agnostic and (pearson) correlation coefficient both provide non-redundant infos, Spearman correlation and Kendall correlation indicators are redundant, although they shouldn't (they should capture non-linear relationships, whereas Pearson can only capture linear ones), their results aren't any different in practice with the pearson correlation coefficient in terms of significant signals they generate that would change my decision process, so we could drop two out of these three correlation coefficients, which would unclutter our chart without losing any data.
## Wrapping-up: continually refine your indicators ##
At the end of the day, it's important to continually try to adapt to the markets. Indicators can continue working, while others may fail, or in the end you find them too difficult to use in practice with your strategy. Your strategy may also evolve over time, and so your indicators should too. Don't ever feel attached to your indicators, you can revisit and question their utility at anytime, and you can go through the steps above again, and drop any indicator at anytime, even if they were useful before, what matters is whether they are still useful now.
There is also a next step for those who are open to learn programming: creating your own indicators. Not so much to create unique opportunities, although they might, but to better understand the market. You should view indicators as a way to better understand some facet of the market, indicators answer the specific questions their authors wanted to find an answer for. So by using indicators of other authors, you are reading the solutions to others questions. But you can also form your own questions, and then the next logical step is to develop your own indicators to find your own answers. And hopefully share them under open-source, so that we can all learn together (and this likely won't impact your profitability, to the contrary, as I explain elsewhere!(3)).
In summary, we can quote Bruce Lee, who described a very similar process for his mastery of martial arts as he taught his own named Jeet Kune Do:
"Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is essentially your own."
I hope this post was useful to you, and if you have an idea of a criterion or a step you use to select indicators that I didn't list above, please share it in the comments!
Enjoy, Trade Safely!
Tartigradia
(1): Technical indicators: what is useful and what isn't , by LuxAlgo
(2): en.wikipedia.org
(3): Why my indicators are open-source, and why yours should be too , by Tartigradia
(4): Repainting — Pine Script™ v5 User Manual v5 documentation
MINA : Upto 75% Profits in The Mid Term.Pair : MINA/USDT
Mina just broke out from the recent downward trend on the 1D chart. A falling wedge pattern already formed and a breakout is on the process. The current candle stick formation looks very bullish but needs to close in such a good shape to confirm the bullish break out and a reverse move. Indicators are also looking good so far the MA and MA both moves below the price which is a bullish sign. Volume looking so good after a good amount of entry in the past 48 hours. If you have to take some risks and get some profits here are the major distribution selling price levels as follows.
#Accumulation Entry Area : 0.56 usdt - 0.6 usdt
🎯Target 1 : 0.618 usdt
🎯Target 2 : 0.69 usdt
Mid Term
🎯Target 3 : 0.74 usdt
🎯Target 4 : 0.80 usdt
Stop Loss :
Make a strict stop loss price level depending on the timeframe you are strategizing.
Nathnael B.
cryptotalk_et