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Look to buy dips in the USD/CAD.Technically Speaking After breaking through the upper trendline, the cross is holding it nicely on a re-test. The first bit of major resistance I see is near 1.40, over 600 pips away. What to do? The major risk factors are both the Canadian and American payroll reports tomorrow at 7:30 CST. I would hold off taking a position until then. Unless a hard break back under the trend-line occurs, I will be looking to buy dips in this cross. If bullish momentum is coming into this pair, it could have a long way to go on the upside.
by CalebDismuke
Time to short EUR/USD? What do you think?Technically Speaking EUR/USD is coming up on a confluence of resistance at 1.1125 and the 100 DMA. When I refer to confluence, I mean that 2 or more technical levels/indicators that are obvious to everyone. Risk Factors The biggest risk factor is the Non-Farm payroll report on Friday at 7:30 CST. What to do? From these levels, the R/R would seem to favor a short position. I usually wait for price action, but for those that don't, a stop above 1.1160 seems reasonable.
by CalebDismuke
USD/JPY right at supportTechnically Speaking Price is right at the 103 level and right above the 100 DMA. I am watching and seeing how price reacts around these levels. Anything under the hourly time frame is noise in my opinion. Risk Factors Important economic reports to end the week. Unemployment claims tom at 7:30 CST. The BIG ONE- Non-Farm payroll report Friday at 7:30 CST. What to do? I like to see price action around key levels. This pair is there right now. Just remember the events mentioned above, as volatility can be high around these reports. Here is my checklist before I take trades: Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? If trending, which way? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? * What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account? * In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission. After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute?
by CalebDismuke
LULU holding pivot at 55, but for how long?Technically Speaking LULU is holding the pivot area of 55ish, so far, the week is not out yet. A pretty clear range looks to be forming b/w 55-80 level, assuming the 55 level holds. Fundamentals Here is a summary of the company. What to do? Bit of a tough one for me. The R/R seems to favor the long side, but I think the bigger level and tougher one to break will be the 36-40 area. Depending on your time frame and style you could scale in and stop out completely under 30-35.
NASDAQ:LULU
by CalebDismuke
CVX is holding $100, but for how long?Technically Speaking CVX is holding the $100ish pivot level. The longer it holds the more likely the next move will be to the upside. Fundamentals Here is a company summary. What to do? First, is this a trade or a long-term holding? What is YOUR time frame? You have to decide. The R/R favors the long side, in my opinion. A long position here, stopping out under 96.00. Checklist Should I buy? * Is this a technical trade or part of my long term holdings. Establishing a time frame is very important. * Is it trading at an important technical level that is obvious to all market participants? * Is the R/R in your favor? * What is the likelihood this company will either go bankrupt or it's products or services become obsolete? * How much debt do they have? * If heavily indebted, how much is coming due in the next 3-5 years? Can they cover their debt payments based on reasonable analysis? * Will their product or service become obsolete? This really is too hard to say, too many things looked obvious in hindsight, think Blackberry. However, I think it is constructive to think about, especially if you are planning to hold a stock for the long term. Risk * For individual securities, risk no more than 3% as a starting position. You can always add later. * Write down a price level that you will consider liquidating all or part of the position. * What is a reasonable price target? Execution * After going through the checklist above, are you still willing to risk your money? If yes, TAKE THE TRADE. OVER THE LONG TERM, THE WAY TO WIN IS TO HOLD ONTO YOUR WINNERS, AND CUT YOUR LOSERS. IT IS AS SIMPLE AND AS HARD AS THAT.
NYSE:CVX
by CalebDismuke
EUR/USD breaks to new multi-month lows. Now what?Technically Speaking Euro has broken support at 1.0950ish level going back to July. The next level of support is down toward 1.08. The line of least resistance seems to be to the downside at the moment. What to do? If you are short, nothing to do but wait. Hold onto a winning trade for as long as possible. If you are long, I would be looking for a close back above the 1.0950 level pretty soon. The longer it trades under July's low prints the greater the chance the move could accelerate to the downside. Make sure you have a "get me out" price and honor it. If you are looking to get long, the 1.08 level seems like a good spot to wait for. My trading checklist, even though they are simple, give me structure. Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? If trending, trending which way? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? If the answer is yes to all three questions, take the trade. If two of the answers are yes, use your best judgment. If only one of the answers is yes, pass on the trade. There are exceptions, know when to use them. Executing a trade * Check if there are any major economic events within the next 24 hours. * Make sure the position is sized correctly when entering the amount. * Make sure the stop is in place before the order is executed. * Make a notation in your spreadsheet about why you took the trade, targets, stops, etc. End of day * Make sure stops on open positions are correct. Adjust as needed. * Execute new trades. OVER THE LONG TERM, THE WAY TO WIN IS TO HOLD ONTO YOUR WINNERS, AND CUT YOUR LOSERS. IT IS AS SIMPLE AND AS HARD AS THAT.
Short
by CalebDismuke
Is Game Stop due for a bounce?Technically Speaking Currently, price is trading near the 2015 low prints around 25ish. For now, the main levels to watch are the 25 level on the downside and the pivot area noted on the chart. As noted on the chart, if I were long or looking to get long, my get out price would be under 20.00 Fundamentals Summary of GameStop's business. Here is a good write up at Seeking Alpha. The main point I took away was that digital gaming is disrupting GameStop's business model. Will they go the way of Blockbuster? However, I think it is constructive to think about, especially if you are planning to hold a stock for the long term. My checklist for evaluating stocks Should I buy? * Is it trading at an important technical level that is obvious? * Is the R/R in your favor? * What is the likelihood this company will either go bankrupt or it's products or services become obsolete? * How much debt do they have? * If heavily indebted, how much is coming due in the next 3-5 years? Can they cover their debt payments based on reasonable analysis? * Will their product or service become obsolete? This really is too hard to say, too many things looked obvious in hindsight, think Blackberry -0.34% . Risk * For individual securities, risk no more than 3% as a starting position. You can always add later. * Write down a price level that you will consider liquidating all or part of the position. * What is a reasonable price target? Execution * Write down the answers to the questions above and if you can answer yes to all of them, take the trade. OVER THE LONG TERM, THE WAY TO WIN IS TO HOLD ONTO YOUR WINNERS, AND CUT YOUR LOSERS. IT IS AS SIMPLE AND AS HARD AS THAT. As always, please leave any comments or questions.
NYSE:GME
by CalebDismuke
Looks like a range forming. What do you think?Technically speaking A nice range forming b/w 6-11.50ish. Fundamentals When dealing individual stocks, I always encourage at least a basic understanding of what the company does. The company could be under investigation or have accounting irregularities. This stock apparently has both. Here is a quick rundown. seekingalpha.com What to do? Always try to handicap the risk of your investment going to zero. Even though I am a technical trader, I always do a google search of the individual stock I am looking to trade. The problems mentioned in the article above seem pretty serious. They could be resolved or they could be a real problem. It is very hard to handicap. It really comes down to how much are you willing to lose to find out. Please leave feedback, good or bad. My goal is to try to provide value to you. Thanks
C
by CalebDismuke
A stock for your buy list?Technically Speaking Acadia Healthcare Co is sitting at a support level that was last tested in 2014, roughly 40. Will it hold this level? Who knows. What to do? Looking at the chart it would seem the R/R favors being long at these levels. A stop somewhere under 36 makes sense. Just have a place that you will EXIT. The number one job of a trader is to protect capital. None of us know which trades will work, we just have to take the trades that seem to be in our favor, hold onto the winners, and cut the losers. Help me I am relatively new to posting trade ideas. I would appreciate any feedback, good or bad. I want to post trades and information that brings value to you, so any feedback is greatly appreciated. Leave comments below or message me directly. Thanks
NASDAQ:ACHCLong
by CalebDismuke
U-Haul is holding support at 320Technically Speaking Demand at 320 has held going back to February of 2015. If that level fails to hold, the next level of support is at 260, 18% to the downside. Risk What is the probability of a permanent loss of capital? How much of my capital am I going to put at risk? 1%, 3%? You have to make this decision. Remember, deep drawdowns are hard to come out of, the number one rule in my book is to limit the downside. Quote "Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds"- Albert Einstein
U
by CalebDismuke
Support zone approaching for Dollar TreeTechnically Speaking Price is approaching the support zone, say 72-76 level. The next support level I see on the chart is the 61ish level. For me, the better R/R might be waiting for the latter level to be tested, but it may never get there, that is the risk you run by waiting. Note, if you are a buyer at these levels, determine where you will get out. If you hold until the next support level, that could be painful. Fundamentals If you are not familiar with what they do, here is a link to their website: www.dollartree.com One of the best lessons I have learned is the ability to cut losses quickly. This definition will be d/f for everybody, but experience has taught me, that limiting losses is the surest way to success. It is just so hard to pull your way out of deep drawdowns. Enough preaching. Have a good day.
NASDAQ:DLTR
by CalebDismuke
EURGBP Double Top ShortThe EG seems to have formed a double top on the 4HR chart. I am looking for a break of the single line trend line, then a hook back up and then I will be in the trade. I will be using the fibs as a guide line and my two major previous S/R targets are 0.8545 and 0.84434 but I will be looking to trade this to the bottom of the sideways move. If you'll check my past EG ideas, I successfully rode the pair down and then up again as they hit each of my S/R targets. It's one of my personal favorites.
Short
by rjdyerz