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Short GBP/JPY, looking for lower pricesShort and looking for lower prices Price found sellers at a previous low print on 6/16 around 145.40. I sold with as stop above today's high. My first target is the green arrow at 142.20. If and when it gets there I will decide what to do next. Markets rarely go one way for an extended period of time. This cross has been straight up since 11/9 with one minor dip. That does not mean it will not go higher, but we as traders are looking for the best R/R. With this pair, I believe the short side is the better bet at these levels. Would love to hear your thoughts in the comments. Happy trading. Last week's results. 2 trades, 1 winner, 1 loser, for a net gain of +46 pips. Not a great week, but still to positive, I'll take it.
Short
by CalebDismuke
Sold USD/CHF, looking for parityTechnically Speaking You can't see it on the chart but the 2 level has been a good level to sell against in the past. I sold at 1.0170, stop at 1.0215. Initial target is 1.0000. Here is my checklist I go through before taking a trade. Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? Is it obvious? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? * What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account? In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission. After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute?
Short
by CalebDismuke
Technical Analysis?I have a straight question to you, and would love to hear your answer in comment section. What is technical analysis? Can you define it? Most people think that I am technical trader, but I am not. I have nothing to do with technicals as I don't use them, so what is the definition? I will write what I think about it, and it is only my subjective opinion. You can write your's too. There is no definition. Anyone can make up anything and call it technical analysis. The field now seem to encompass everything from drawing trend lines to astrology. Technical analysis started out with quite simple concepts, which are not all that dumb. In the early days, it was about looking for directional trends in prices and divergences between related market indexes. Experience told traders that when prices start moving in one direction, they are more likely to continue than to reverse. Technical analysis was just a way to visualize this concept. Divergences was mostly about comparing the Dow Jones Industrial with the Dow Jones Transport, the two most important indexes at the time, and draw conclusions from potential differences. Adding things like simple oversold/overbought indicators is still in the realm of sanity. Again, experience had taught traders that extreme short term moves are often followed by a sudden pullback. Emotions run wild as the price takes off, propelling the price further until a short term correction sets in when the buyers are already in and there’s no one left to push the price higher. Common sense things where technical analysis was used as a tool to visualize abstract phenomena. Then the problems set it. The visual nature of technical analysis lends itself to get-rich-quick stories. After all, there’s no need for all that hard work, right? Why waste time learning tough things and gaining real life experience when all you have to do is look at a chart and draw some lines? It was only a matter of time before this field was completely taken over by snake oil salesmen. To be fair, some of them are probably just delusional and not outright immoral. There are no rules for what technical analysis is. So it became everything. In particular, everything that is easily sold. The more colorful naming and background story, the easier the sell. At first we had the indicator explosion. An easy way to get famous in the field is to create an indicator. Especially if you manage to get that indicator included in standard technical analysis software packages. So everyone and his grandmother started making indicators in hopes of fame. It’s a comfortable illusion, that all you need is to find the right indicators and you’ll be rich in no time at all. Just get those parameters right. Then we have the field of exotic names. Doji, three little soldiers, spinning dragons, crouching tigers, ichimoko, harami, spanking monkeys, and tons of more colorful names. Well, I might have made some of them up, but if others are allowed to make up random exotic names, why can’t I? Beware of anything that sounds ‘cool’. Most likely it has no other use than to sell products that won’t help you. Do I say all Tech is crap? No, I wouldn’t go that far. There are actually plenty of professionals using concepts originating from technical analysis. Usually they don’t use the term though, for reasons made clear above. It has a very poor reputation. Trend following, the main strategy of the 300 billion dollar CTA industry, has its roots in technical analysis. A large part of quantitative, systematic trading is based on ideas from that came out of that field. Peace. TPP
FX:XAUUSD
by TheZabisyu
9
Look to buy dips in the USD/CAD.Technically Speaking After breaking through the upper trendline, the cross is holding it nicely on a re-test. The first bit of major resistance I see is near 1.40, over 600 pips away. What to do? The major risk factors are both the Canadian and American payroll reports tomorrow at 7:30 CST. I would hold off taking a position until then. Unless a hard break back under the trend-line occurs, I will be looking to buy dips in this cross. If bullish momentum is coming into this pair, it could have a long way to go on the upside.
by CalebDismuke
Time to short EUR/USD? What do you think?Technically Speaking EUR/USD is coming up on a confluence of resistance at 1.1125 and the 100 DMA. When I refer to confluence, I mean that 2 or more technical levels/indicators that are obvious to everyone. Risk Factors The biggest risk factor is the Non-Farm payroll report on Friday at 7:30 CST. What to do? From these levels, the R/R would seem to favor a short position. I usually wait for price action, but for those that don't, a stop above 1.1160 seems reasonable.
by CalebDismuke
USD/JPY right at supportTechnically Speaking Price is right at the 103 level and right above the 100 DMA. I am watching and seeing how price reacts around these levels. Anything under the hourly time frame is noise in my opinion. Risk Factors Important economic reports to end the week. Unemployment claims tom at 7:30 CST. The BIG ONE- Non-Farm payroll report Friday at 7:30 CST. What to do? I like to see price action around key levels. This pair is there right now. Just remember the events mentioned above, as volatility can be high around these reports. Here is my checklist before I take trades: Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? If trending, which way? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? * What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account? * In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission. After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute?
by CalebDismuke
LULU holding pivot at 55, but for how long?Technically Speaking LULU is holding the pivot area of 55ish, so far, the week is not out yet. A pretty clear range looks to be forming b/w 55-80 level, assuming the 55 level holds. Fundamentals Here is a summary of the company. What to do? Bit of a tough one for me. The R/R seems to favor the long side, but I think the bigger level and tougher one to break will be the 36-40 area. Depending on your time frame and style you could scale in and stop out completely under 30-35.
NASDAQ:LULU
by CalebDismuke
CVX is holding $100, but for how long?Technically Speaking CVX is holding the $100ish pivot level. The longer it holds the more likely the next move will be to the upside. Fundamentals Here is a company summary. What to do? First, is this a trade or a long-term holding? What is YOUR time frame? You have to decide. The R/R favors the long side, in my opinion. A long position here, stopping out under 96.00. Checklist Should I buy? * Is this a technical trade or part of my long term holdings. Establishing a time frame is very important. * Is it trading at an important technical level that is obvious to all market participants? * Is the R/R in your favor? * What is the likelihood this company will either go bankrupt or it's products or services become obsolete? * How much debt do they have? * If heavily indebted, how much is coming due in the next 3-5 years? Can they cover their debt payments based on reasonable analysis? * Will their product or service become obsolete? This really is too hard to say, too many things looked obvious in hindsight, think Blackberry. However, I think it is constructive to think about, especially if you are planning to hold a stock for the long term. Risk * For individual securities, risk no more than 3% as a starting position. You can always add later. * Write down a price level that you will consider liquidating all or part of the position. * What is a reasonable price target? Execution * After going through the checklist above, are you still willing to risk your money? If yes, TAKE THE TRADE. OVER THE LONG TERM, THE WAY TO WIN IS TO HOLD ONTO YOUR WINNERS, AND CUT YOUR LOSERS. IT IS AS SIMPLE AND AS HARD AS THAT.
NYSE:CVX
by CalebDismuke
EUR/USD breaks to new multi-month lows. Now what?Technically Speaking Euro has broken support at 1.0950ish level going back to July. The next level of support is down toward 1.08. The line of least resistance seems to be to the downside at the moment. What to do? If you are short, nothing to do but wait. Hold onto a winning trade for as long as possible. If you are long, I would be looking for a close back above the 1.0950 level pretty soon. The longer it trades under July's low prints the greater the chance the move could accelerate to the downside. Make sure you have a "get me out" price and honor it. If you are looking to get long, the 1.08 level seems like a good spot to wait for. My trading checklist, even though they are simple, give me structure. Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? If trending, trending which way? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? If the answer is yes to all three questions, take the trade. If two of the answers are yes, use your best judgment. If only one of the answers is yes, pass on the trade. There are exceptions, know when to use them. Executing a trade * Check if there are any major economic events within the next 24 hours. * Make sure the position is sized correctly when entering the amount. * Make sure the stop is in place before the order is executed. * Make a notation in your spreadsheet about why you took the trade, targets, stops, etc. End of day * Make sure stops on open positions are correct. Adjust as needed. * Execute new trades. OVER THE LONG TERM, THE WAY TO WIN IS TO HOLD ONTO YOUR WINNERS, AND CUT YOUR LOSERS. IT IS AS SIMPLE AND AS HARD AS THAT.
Short
by CalebDismuke
Is Game Stop due for a bounce?Technically Speaking Currently, price is trading near the 2015 low prints around 25ish. For now, the main levels to watch are the 25 level on the downside and the pivot area noted on the chart. As noted on the chart, if I were long or looking to get long, my get out price would be under 20.00 Fundamentals Summary of GameStop's business. Here is a good write up at Seeking Alpha. The main point I took away was that digital gaming is disrupting GameStop's business model. Will they go the way of Blockbuster? However, I think it is constructive to think about, especially if you are planning to hold a stock for the long term. My checklist for evaluating stocks Should I buy? * Is it trading at an important technical level that is obvious? * Is the R/R in your favor? * What is the likelihood this company will either go bankrupt or it's products or services become obsolete? * How much debt do they have? * If heavily indebted, how much is coming due in the next 3-5 years? Can they cover their debt payments based on reasonable analysis? * Will their product or service become obsolete? This really is too hard to say, too many things looked obvious in hindsight, think Blackberry -0.34% . Risk * For individual securities, risk no more than 3% as a starting position. You can always add later. * Write down a price level that you will consider liquidating all or part of the position. * What is a reasonable price target? Execution * Write down the answers to the questions above and if you can answer yes to all of them, take the trade. OVER THE LONG TERM, THE WAY TO WIN IS TO HOLD ONTO YOUR WINNERS, AND CUT YOUR LOSERS. IT IS AS SIMPLE AND AS HARD AS THAT. As always, please leave any comments or questions.
NYSE:GME
by CalebDismuke
Looks like a range forming. What do you think?Technically speaking A nice range forming b/w 6-11.50ish. Fundamentals When dealing individual stocks, I always encourage at least a basic understanding of what the company does. The company could be under investigation or have accounting irregularities. This stock apparently has both. Here is a quick rundown. seekingalpha.com What to do? Always try to handicap the risk of your investment going to zero. Even though I am a technical trader, I always do a google search of the individual stock I am looking to trade. The problems mentioned in the article above seem pretty serious. They could be resolved or they could be a real problem. It is very hard to handicap. It really comes down to how much are you willing to lose to find out. Please leave feedback, good or bad. My goal is to try to provide value to you. Thanks
C
by CalebDismuke