Technicals
Earnings dip provides long opportunity. Reward/Risk ratio = 2.7xFUNDAMENTALLY: COMPELLING GROWTH AND EARNINGS PROFILE
LULU is a specialized sportswear company with superior growth (revenue CAGR +24%) and profitability (ROE >20%). The stock was recently hammered on earnings which were in line, probably due to a rich valuation. This provides an entry opportunity into the stock.
TECHNICALLY: STILL SOLID AFTER THE DIP, AND OVERSOLD
- Currently trading in the middle of the range ($65.98) of its long-term uptrend channel ($48 - $82).
- Staged a powerful breakout in late March 2016.
- Previous resistance (descending dotted line) has turned support.
- Got hammered after flat earnings and esp. after hitting previous historical high.
- Remains above main supports (see graph).
- Currently looking oversold (RSI<30) and building a base above 200d MA.
- Next levels to watch on the downside are $65.25 (200-MA) and $60.00 (breakout support).
TRADING CONCLUSION
- Go long at the current price with upside targets at $71.50 and $82.00 and stop-loss at $60.
- Compelling Reward/Risk ratio of 2.7/1.
- Expect trade duration of 13 weeks, in line with recent up-channel duration.
Study3Here , market gives us only Daily levels. Okay , we will trade around them only. However , we are in triangle pattern . Indecision in the markets again. It's very risky to trade in that kind of environment. Market can do anything. You must be very cautious. If we go long , we will be stopped soon , If we go short , we will be stopped soon. So we just chill out and stay flat until some side is hard broken. Only after that we can anticipate given direction to be reached. This chart shows absolute levels. Trade what you see. Resistance above , no longs , support below , no shorts , WAIT , Best decision right now.
Study2Indecision. Triangle. Range. Which direction you choose to trade ? Up/Down ? Right answer is no one !!! Market is indecisive. When that kind of conditions , stay away. It's best for your account , as to your mind. Wait for clear break in either side and then decide which direction market is likely to go.
USDCAD ShortBearish bias on pair and price has formed a shooting star at Res zone.
Stops above previous swing high.
Target 1 127.00
Target 2 125.00
NZDUSD SHORT LONGTERMi am currently short on nzdusd from today's UK session test of the 50% weekly fib. entry at 0.7475
a possible trend line could form if the reverse continues, price has currently retreated below the weekly 200EMA a close below would be further confirmation.
daily chart is forming a bearish engulfing pattern and a close below 0.74 level further confirmation
monthly chart is running on the fourth bullish candles, those preceding this months with long wicks
tps set qt 0.7020 0.688 and a very long term 0.64
ABCD & daily 78.6 NZDUSD REVERSAL had this marked up on the chart for a month now, in confluence with day resistance and 78.6 on the daily !
AUDNZD in tough spot - important levels to watchThe pair was supported in 1.03200 area, where we can find a strong demand zone. Even though upside move is expected since the AUDNZD 0.15% is oversold, we can see a major support line becoming resistance all the way back from December 2005 lows. On the other side, many support lines and fibos are covering our last bounce area, so if the pair should continue and break the resistance and minor supply zone, we will see the pair continue to advance to 1.05500 levels. The pair can test 1.03000 prior upside movement.
- The importance of trend line or fibo line, is seen by it's thickness.
- The pair was analyzed on Monthly and Weekly first, to see the bigger picture
GBPUSD Wedge formation broken + pay rolls = buy?As can be seen price has broken out of the wedge formation. What usually happens now is a deep retracement back into the wedge and a spike back out continuing the upwards trend towards a re-test of previous highs.
The farms rolls tomorrow are historically the worst and this should give a perfect opportunity for bulls to carry price higher.
See below for a double entry trade with a short and longer term target at historic structural resistance levels.
1-0 TECHNICALS TRUMPS NEWS AGAIN !ISM manufactoring or technicals? we see a near perfect bat pattern on the DXY and a beautiful evening start pattern. Technicals take the wheel again.
EURUSD Can continue Bearish Move?I can see Momentum cross down the OBV and D- cross above the D+. Dont you think we are looking into continues bearish move of EURUSD?
CRUDE - EXACT BOTTOM REACHED!Crude has bottomed and will begin flying upward supar hard, within the next 1-35 days.
Get in NOAW
Don't miss this buying opportunity! You'd have to be a huge moron to pass this up!!!
NZDUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 0.70 RES, MA, STDEV, IV=HV & RR NZD$ Technical analysis - Remain bearish below 0.70 - 0.69tp1 0.68tp2 on a rate cut (Aug 10th):
Key level close:
1. On the daily and weekly we closed at the strongest pivot point of recent times at 0.70 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit).
MA:
1. We trade below the 4wk and 3m MA - this is a bearish indication + we are finding some support at the 3m moving average where price currently sits, though NZD$ looks to try and push lower with daily candles skewing their spikes to the downside. We have been above the 6m MA since June which sits at 0.69 and likely offers our next bearish support once we break the 3m MA.
IV/ HV:
1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly aggressively come off in recent days, likely a function of the RBNZ rhetoric fading. Plus Implied vols are seen steeper in the 1wk and flatter in the 2wk-1m - with 1wk, 2wk and 1m Implied vols trade at 13.12%, 12.66%, 13.09% vs HV 1wk 2wk 1m at 10.90%, 15.60%, 14.58% - this mixture between HV and IV shows there has been considerable volatility drivers in the past/ future which are causing the curves to converge and diverge in no particular direction e.g. brexit, RBNZ hawkish/ dovish comments, future rate expectations - which all distort the interaction between HV and IV.
Deviation Channels/ Support levels:
1. We Trade near to the bottom of the 6m deviation channel at 0.69 as NZD economic assessment asserts downside pressure on the pair, nonetheless but we could see support here as 0.69 is also a price action support level. Looking at the 12m SD channel, we are trading just below the average price at 0.703 - hence there is definitely more room for downside and we have just crossed the middle regression line implying we are entering some downside deviation now, with the 12m -2SD resistance level at 0.675 which is in line with the price support level at 0.68 which is where i think we will head after the RBNZ announces a 25bps cut..
Risk-Reversals
1. 25 delta Risk reversals trade marginally bearish for NZD$, with current at -0.2, 1wks at -0.3 and 2wks at -0.6 and 1m at -0.95 - this suggest the NZD$ has a slight downside bias which concurs with the RBNZ's dovish stance and committment to cutting rates that was made clear in the July economic assesment (see attached).
- 3m risk reversals trade with a similar downside bias to the 1m at -1 which shows the market expects extended NZD$ downside, likely a function of further rate cut expectations from the RBNZ.
*Check the attached posts for indepth fundamentals*
$WTI - Refiner Outages Approaching, P Action around $42.5 KeyUsing $42.50 as a support level, a bounce off that level would be considered bullish, but if prices fail to hold, a return to $37.50 seems probable. This implies a negative 200 day SMA cross, which suffice it to say, would be a return to the bearish int term trend. This, in concert with a low energy demand season approaching and several refiner outages expected in coming months, which would imply further inventory builds to already record levels.
GBPUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BEARISH MA, IV>HV, STANDEV & RRTechnical analysis - highly bearish:
MA:
1. Just crossed the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA for several weeks unsurprisingly since brexit.
IV/ HV:
1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly come off, this would but bullish but brexit has distorted the longer dated HV and they are lagging - Implied vols are steepening higher than HV - particularly around the 2wks as BOE vol prices - so IV is greater than HV in the front end which is bearish, especially around BOE where we expect ALOT of bearish pressure going into the BOE as easing is expected.
Deviation Channels:
1. We Trade at the bottom of the 6m deviation channel but this is due to brexit so shouldnt be considered bullish. Looking at the 3m SD channel, this is more appropriate and shows us trading at the average 3m price - hence there is definitely more room for downside and we have just crossed the middle regression line implying we are entering some downside deviation now.
Risk-Reversals
1. 25 delta Risk reversals trade marginally bearish for GBP$, with current at -0.1, 1wks flat at 0.02 and 2wks at -0.5 - this is surprising given BOE is coming up - one would expect a larger skew to one direction - since this isnt the case it could be 1) the market is neutral on the decision e.g. not sure of the result or 2) given we have 2wks yet investors are yet to postion in the option market, which they will next week - ill keep you updated on the vol/ option space biases.
- Though 1m risk reversals trade with a clearer downside bias a -1 and 2m at -2 which shows the market expects GBP$ to trade lower in the 1-2m term - which makes sense given the economic uncertainty + BOE Easing potential.
*Check the attached posts for indepth fundamentals*
TSLA Medium Term Short - Next leg down from the bearish trendTSLA (Tesla) Short
Here's a setup of a TSLA short that I've initiated on Friday. Looking at the Fibonacci retracement lines, it has struggled to breakout of the 38.2% line after it's initial denial at the 23.6% line. Recently, there has been a breakout from the 38.2% region due to a strong market, despite negative Tesla stories as of late. Similarly, price has had difficulty breaking above the 200sma, which it broke just as of late. However, the main bearish trend line, top one in blue, is acting as strong resistance. Tesla closed once again at the 38.2% line, looking to make a reversal here and head back to low 200s. Unless there is a breakout of the top trendline, I expect another leg down push, hopefully into the low 200s/high 100s region.
This is a purely technical-based short setup but is very influenced by Tesla news. Musk has yet to release his master plan which he had mentioned this past week. Any evidence of a breakout of the blue line would be a good place to cover a short position.
USDCAD strong resistance pointUSDCAD is currently hitting levels of strong resistance where prices failed to break out higher for a while. I nice scalp to the short end will play nicely in this situation.
Technical Tuesday - USDJPYWe have the USDJPY in a massive over exhausted downtrend on the daily.
Technical:
Daily bullish wedge.
VERY long term trend line rejection after Brexit
VERY key support line from 2014
Deceleration, failure to break brexit lows
Doji candle on Friday 8th July
Along with these excellent technical's there is also a few fundamentals to go along with it, to see this in more depth visit www.TotalMarketTraders.com and sign up for our blog, or else send an email to: info@totalmarkettraders.com
MasterWhy not to be long ? It's perfect scenario , however , wait for bullish momentum first and then buy , cause right now we are selling the top. Wait for this wave to end and then go for your profits IF risk is good.
SHORT NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view:
1. On the daily, weekly and H1 NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive.
- Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here).
-- And as you can see by the Circle Yellow highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future.
2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success.
*Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
SELL NZDUSD: +2 STANDARD DEVIATION PIVOT POINT ON DAILY & H1Also as additional technicals to support the short NZD$ view:
1. On the daily, H1 and weekly NU currently Trades (and at 0.73) close/ at to its +2 standard deviation lines, these are highly resistive.
- Assuming NU trades mean reverting +2SD means there is a 95% chance of a price reversal/ 95% of all prices should be below the +2SD channel lines (e.g. NU highly likely lower from here).
-- And as you can see by the Yellow circle highlights NU has held this +/- 2SD discipline in the past so is highly likely to maintain these levels in the future.
2. Also NU trades significantly above its 60, 120, and 250 Moving Averages on 1h, 4h, 1D, 1wk - this also signals strong overbought prices, where selling has a higher probability of success.
*Be sure to check the attached post "SELL NZDUSD @0.73 - TP 700PIPS: BREXIT, RBNZ, FED & USDJPY HEDGE" for NZDUSD short fundamentals*
GBP/USD - IMPACT OF THE EU REFERENDUMOn the monthly chart above i have posted key points in previous years where the pound has taken a dive against the dollar. August 2008, the recession hits, the value of the pound drops from nearly 2.00000 to 1.35300 in 6 months. August 2012, the economy enters a double-dip recession after two consecutive quarters of contraction in the economy. Now, late June 2016 following the UK's decision to vote to leave the EU we have seen the value of GBP plummet, a 1700 pip loss in one day, reaching lows last seen in 1985. During this time of uncertainty and turmoil it is hard to see the pound recovering any of its value in the near future. I see the UK economy potentially entering another recession after the news of yesterday. Furthermore, due to this assumption, i have projected GBP to fall to the levels of 1.25000 - 1.20000 in the upcoming months. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
