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Technicals

Two potential outcomes with $SPY, leaning LONGIt appears $SPY might form a reverse-head-and-shoulders pattern by dropping down to resistance at 208.40, to which it bounces back up and breaks upwards resistance at about 211. The contrarian idea is that almost one year ago we saw a reverse-head-and-shoulders pattern that didn't break resistance and shortly collapsed. I'm leaning LONG because it appears that over the previous year, highs were trending lower and now they appear to be trending higher, having already broken through the slight downtrending upper resistance line.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IanTimberlake
Bearish Head and Shoulders forming on SPYA combination of lukewarm earnings for Q1 and talks of an impending Federal Reserve interest rate hike seem to be slowing down the bullish recovery we've seen in the S&P the past several weeks. On the technical side, notice the failure to attain a new high. In fact SPY has consistently been unable to break new highs going back to May 2015, when the bear market truly began. Further, note the bearish head and shoulders pattern forming, Heikin Ashi candles with longer wicks to the downside, and somewhat strong resistance from above via the Ichi Moku Cloud. Recommendations for a short trade: wait for the price to decisively break the neckline with a strong bar. The next fibonacci level serves as a decent profit target at about $200. Note that there is a relative vacuum between the hypothesized entry point and this value, aside from one level of support indicated by the dashed red line. For a stop loss, consider the apex of the right shoulder.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
CRUDE OIL TRIPLE TOPFirst and foremost one should know I am very bearish on oil, as it has paid tremendously the past year to be on the short side. But a true bear should know when to prey and when to hibernate. At this moment I consider myself in hibernation. I am looking to sit out until June of this year before I initiate my big short on crude. So far my analysis has been inaccurate and predictions have been in accurate the past 2 months. I will admit this. But when I put my bias aside and actually listen to my chart as well as my technical analysis, I can admit to myself that oil has more room to run. Most bears wont admit this, but I will admit crude has room to run but one must take the good and bad with this. The GOOD in this is that the more oil runs up the more green in our pockets when it meets its maker. One chart is not sufficient so i tend to make several charts. In this chart here we have a clean triple top. Previous triple top was formed July 29th 2015 and triple topped in oct 9th 2015. The most recent triple top was formed dec 15 2015 and triple topped today march 17th 2016. in each of these triple tops it took exactly three months to form. COINCIDENCE? I DON'T THINK SO!. Does this mean we should initiate a short? well not necessarily maybe if your'e scalping yes. We should deff be pulling back before taking one last swim up before JUNE.
NYMEX:CLJ2016Short
by bouadvisors
GILD: The Little Engine that CouldDespite my overall bearish outlook on stocks, Gilead Sciences stands out as the 'Little Engine that Could' in the sense that it keeps chugging along despite being battered by the broader index just after earnings came out late January. On the fundamental side, most analysts think it's way underweight citing that it should be worth as much as 66% more as per the attached article. In my personal opinion, the fact that it is largely uncorrelated with the S&P index (overlaid in red) is actually a good thing. Stocks in general are in a frenzy over more free money from a global quantitative easing, bolstered further by the dovishness of the FOMC meeting consensus released yesterday. Technically, it appears to be consolidating once more in somewhat of a flag pattern, which is even easier to see when Heikin Ashi charts are applied. Further, it is consolidating at a major fibonacci level (anchored from the high of 2016-01-25 to the strong level of support from the low of 2016-02-19). Yesterday proved very bullish leading us to expect some pullback, but the high of today was still greater than that of Tuesday, another bullish sign. Note the proximity to the Ichimoku cloud, which may indicate further pressure building at that level. The other technicals such as the MACD, ADX and RSI suggest that we are ranging, though fortunately the Aroon indicator advocates that we are in a longer term uptrend. Trading idea : Wait for a big bull bar to confirm the breakout from the flag pattern. Set your profit targets using the fibonacci levels above, with a protective stop at the base of the (hypothetical at this point) bull candle. Keep in mind that this may be something you want to hold on to long term.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy
1
All Eyes on FOMC for Equities PositionsData from the U.S. has improved by the barest of margins. The New York Fed Consumer Survey finds inflation expectations rising (by less than 1%) above expectations, and the ECB rate cut means lots of free cash to play with. Keep in mind we have the FOMC meeting coming up and their decisions will determine the direction of the markets for the near term. Expectations for the federal funds rate remain pretty consistent and the consensus is no change. Personally, I expect them to pay more lip service to foreign issues and reiterate data dependency. But the tone of their message could have a huge impact on the direction of the markets, in particular with the S&P. Moreover recession fears are still high as discussed in the attached article. The chart on SPY forms a near perfect bearish crab pattern. Further, the Aroon indicator notes we are still in a long term down trend. The OBV does show some buying pressure, though the buying volume at present does not match selling volume from December. Further, the RSI is dangerously close to reflecting overbought conditions. Although the MACD histogram is still positive, it is decreasing indicating a potential crossover in the near future. Finally, there is a growing divergence between the price and the Ichimoku cloud portending a correction soon. Trading idea: Don't enter a short position until you see a strong bear candle. After this, you can place a protective stop at the high of that candle, and set a conservative price target at the first fibonacci level at $195.26, or at $192.20 or even $189.81 depending on your risk tolerance.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
Potential LONGS USD/JPYPrice has consolidated above monthly support at 112.00 with the weekly chart showing a strong hammer candlestick pattern signaling a reversal is soon due. Along with daily showing us a morning star pattern and bullish engulfing patterns, with a break above the daily trend line shown we are potentially looking at at 117.000 being the target as key weekly and monthly resistance. I am not a huge fan of indicators at all but we also see a clear upswing in the RSI and has potential to go further following a confirmation in price. Threw a Fibo at the end of this analysis ;)
Long
by erillmann96
1
Can Gilead Beat the Markets?As of March 3rd, Gilead earned a 'buy' rating from Citigroup as verified by the link. It is true that GILD should have performed better after earnings as has been historically demonstrated, but it took a beating with the overall index but failed to share in the rebound. Personally, I think this is a good thing, for you'll note from my previous post here previous post that this is nothing but a massive short covering rally, just like we are seeing with oil The good news is that we seem to see see a nice breakout to the upside from the consolidation in terms of a bull triangle. We are not out of the woods yet, as we face resistance from the ichimoku cloud overhead and a neighboring fibonacci level at about $90.30. In fact, the level mentioned above would make a great stop buy order to enter the trade, and clearly that strong level of support at $87.22 would serve as a good stop loss. The subsequent levels after $90.30 make perfect profit targets.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy
Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade AccordinglyThere's been a massive short covering rally of near historic proportions in oil recently. As the OPEC circus continues to 'cry wolf' regarding freezing production, the market, once overwhelmingly short on the commodity, takes the opportunity to cash out some of its short positions. There is really no fundamental reason for oil to rally so hard as the attached article cites. Further, note that the OBV does not indicate any true buying pressure that would warrant such a correction. In fact, it still demonstrates quite a bit of selling pressure, an extreme divergence with price. Further, note the bearish gartley pattern. It is not quite fully complete. But when the price hits anywhere from $40.30-$40.98 (as the pattern has been drawn to anticipate), we'll see almost perfect fulfillment of the ratios. Note further that this level happens to align with a strong fibonacci level on the fibonacci extension (if X-C is to correspond to the 50% fibonacci level). Finally, we see that the 100 period Aroon indicator still notes that we are in a long term downtrend, and the MACD looks due to change directions and head toward a crossover into negative territory. The RSI is very close to indicating overbought conditions as well, to indicate a near perfect setup for a mean reversion short in and of itself, let alone the data cited above. Look for it to retrace at least to 23.6% fibonacci level, if not to fully retrace and visit the $20 handle once again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
S&P Rally Short LivedWith the tsunami of data this week, it was really hard to sieve out anything stellar. At best, we had employment data that was above expectation on Wednesday, as well as a moderately improved ISM manufacturing index. PMI and Factory Orders left much to be desired. Central Bankers all over the world are scratching their heads and trying in futility to save face against waning markets and negative interest rates that have taken Europe by storm and seem to be spreading at a clip rivaling the Zika virus. So why is S&P rallying? As Keynes himself said, "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent". With the overtly bearish momentum this year to date, a proverbial 'dead cat bounce' was due. But that's all it is. One of the prime directives of trading is to trade with the volume not against it. This recent buying volume is still paltry with respect to the selling volume which drove the market down. Timing is everything in trading. When can we expect a turnaround? If we take a look at the chart of SPY and apply some fibonacci analysis, we see a bearish butterfly pattern foreshadowing another bearish turnaround. If you apply fibonacci time slice analysis, you see that we can probably expect this to begin as early as tomorrow or to even by market close today. The RSI seems to hint that the market is becoming overbought at this point, and we see a macd cross starting to form at 1 hour intervals. The OBV is still indicating positive pressure which indicates now is not necessarily the time to enter a short position. This is confirmed by the Aroon and ADX indicators as well. Wait for a big bear candle tomorrow or by Monday, 2016-03-07. At this point you can set a stop loss at the base of that candle and ride the trade down to the 0.5, 0.382, or 0.236 levels drawn out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy