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Technicaltrading

Learn Your EDGE - Trust Your EDGEYou can learn a methodology trust the methodology and be consistent. This weekly planning session is based on the H4 Indices, the idea is to do another major basket analysis after Tuesday trading. This analysis examined the AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USDJPY & USDCAD. H4 Indices Portfolio Selection BULLISH: AUD, JPY, GBP, CAD, NZD BEARISH: USD, EUR, ------------------------- BUY PAIRS: AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD SELL PAIRS: EURAUD, USDCAD, USDJPY
by Charts247TradingAcademy
The profitability of TA trading rules in the Bitcoin market█  The profitability of technical trading rules in the Bitcoin market The Bitcoin market, known for its wild fluctuations, poses a unique challenge for traders: Is it possible to consistently profit using technical trading rules? Recent research analyzing Bitcoin's price data from July 2010 to January 2019 has shed light on this question, focusing on the effectiveness of seven trend-following indicators. The research was conducted by Gerritsen et al. Notably, the trading range breakout rule emerged as a promising strategy, often outperforming the traditional buy-and-hold approach. █  Some Background into the Bitcoin Market Bitcoin's price path suggests market inefficiency, likely due to its short history and the erratic behaviors of market participants. Previous studies on Bitcoin's efficiency mainly focused on its predictability from a random walk perspective, leaving the performance of technical trading rules on Bitcoin prices largely unexplored. The core aim of this study is to examine the profitability of technical trading rules, specifically to determine if these rules can surpass a basic buy-and-hold strategy. By applying seven well-documented trading rules and analyzing their performance through the Sharpe ratio, the study seeks to provide practical insights for Bitcoin traders. █  Methodology The study uses daily price data from July 17, 2010, to December 31, 2018, totaling 3,084 daily observations. Gerritsen and team removed a brief period in 2011 due to a Mt. Gox hack and integrated data from Coinmarketcap starting April 28, 2013. The research also considers the risk-free rate, using 3-month US Treasury bill returns for its analysis. █  Trading Rules Analyzed 1. Moving Averages (MA): This strategy issues buy signals when the recent price or its short-term average exceeds a longer-term average and sell signals in the opposite scenario. It tested combinations like 1-day vs. 50-day, 2-day vs 150-day, and 5-day vs 200-day averages. 2. Trading Range Breakout (TRB): It looks for price breakouts beyond the highest and lowest prices of a predefined period (50, 150, 200 days), signaling buys for breakouts above the high and sells below the low. 3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD rule uses two exponential moving averages (EMAs), and triggers buy signals when the MACD line (the difference between a 12-day and a 26-day EMA) is above zero, and sell signals when it is below zero. It also examines the MACD signal line and MACD histogram as additional signals. 4. Rate of Change (ROC): This rule compares the current price with the price n days ago (commonly 10 days) to determine market momentum and issue buy/sell signals. The rule suggests buying when the ROC is positive, indicating upward momentum, and selling when it is negative, indicating downward momentum. 5. On-Balance-Volume (OBV): This volume-based indicator predicts price movements based on volume flow, asserting that volume changes precede price changes. The study applied MA rules to the OBV to generate signals, buying when the short-term MA of OBV crosses the long-term MA from below, and selling when it crosses from above. 6. Relative Strength Index (RSI): A momentum oscillator that identifies overbought or oversold conditions, suggesting buy signals when below 30 and sell signals above 70. 7. Bollinger Bands (BB): This strategy uses a moving average with upper and lower bands based on standard deviations from the MA, issuing buy signals when the price touches the lower band and sell signals at the upper band. █  Strategies and Evaluation The study applied each trading rule in three distinct strategies: Literal Interpretation: Buying or selling Bitcoin directly based on the signal, including short positions. Long Positions Only: Considering only buy signals due to the practical challenges of shorting Bitcoin on many exchanges. Default Long Position with Adjustment on Signals: Maintaining a default long position, doubling investment on buy signals, and moving to risk-free assets on sell signals. The performance of these strategies was evaluated using the Sharpe ratio, comparing the excess returns of the trading strategies over the risk-free rate to their volatility. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates a more efficient risk-adjusted return. The study used bootstrapping to assess the statistical significance of the Sharpe ratio differences between each trading rule strategy and a benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. █  Key Findings The study finds mixed results across different technical trading strategies when applied to Bitcoin. Notably, the trading range breakout (TRB) rule consistently offers higher Sharpe ratios than a buy-and-hold strategy, signifying its superior performance. On average, TRB strategies yield a Sharpe ratio of around 0.08, marking them as statistically significant against the buy-and-hold benchmark. This rule's success is further highlighted in specific periods, such as 2011–2012, 2013–2014, and 2017–2018, where its Sharpe ratios were notably higher than those of the buy-and-hold approach. The significant outperformance in these periods underscores the TRB rule's adaptability to market dynamics. While most other technical trading rules did not consistently outperform the buy-and-hold strategy, certain strategies like MACD showed significant outperformance in specific applications (Strategy 2), illustrating the nuanced effectiveness of technical trading rules in the Bitcoin market. Counter-trend indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index and Bollinger Bands, generally underperformed compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark, sometimes yielding negative Sharpe ratios. █  Sensitivity to Market Conditions The effectiveness of the TRB strategy, in particular, seems to be highly dependent on the prevailing market conditions. During periods of strong trends (either bull or bear markets), the TRB rule demonstrated notable outperformance. However, during more stable periods, like 2015–2016, the TRB rule and most other trading rules did not show a significant advantage over the buy-and-hold strategy, aligning with the adaptive market hypothesis suggesting that the performance of trading strategies is contingent upon environmental factors. █  Limitations and Future Research One notable limitation is the focus solely on Bitcoin, leaving the question of whether these findings can be generalized to other cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the analysis does not account for transaction costs, potentially affecting the trading strategies' profitability. Future research is encouraged to extend the investigation to other leading cryptocurrencies and to consider the impact of transaction costs on the profitability of the trading range breakout rule and other technical trading strategies. █  Reference Gerritsen, D.F., et al. (xxxx). The profitability of technical trading rules in the Bitcoin market. Finance Research Letters, xxx(x), xxx-xxx. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Editors' picks
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
6
USDJPY Bull Flag PatternHi Traders! There is a bull flag pattern developing on the USDJPY 1D chart. Here are the details: The price action looks bullish, and the market is currently in a consolidation phase in the flag's channel as the flag pattern is in its early phase. The market is still above the 20 EMA, which is a bullish signal. As long as the market remains above the EMA and flag channel support, we will remain bullish on this pair. Preferred Direction: Buy Resistance (FLAG CHANNEL): 148.830 Support (FLAG CHANNEL): 146.680 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
2
SILVER Neckline BreakHi Traders! SILVER has broken below the neckline break in its head-and-shoulders pattern, and there is a possibility for a continuation to the downside if the market continues to stay below the neckline. Here are the details: After the initial momentum break below the neckline, the market is now retesting the neckline as resistance, and the 20 EMA has lined up perfectly with it. We are looking for the market to stay below both the neckline and 20 EMA and look for exit targets near the 21.90 level. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 23.650 Support: 22.681 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
CAPITALCOM:SILVERShort
by BluetonaFX
EURUSD Downside ContinuesHi Traders! EURUSD looks to be continuing to the downside, and there is potential for a support price break. Here are the details: The market continues to swing lower with lower highs and lower lows; the price has also broken below the 20 EMA recently. We are looking for the market to remain below the 20 EMA to continue downwards towards the support area. Should the market reach the support area, there may be some demand there as the market will not have been that low in a month. If there is a break below the support area, then the target level is 1.08300. Preferred Direction: Sell Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Resistance: 1.09547 Support Area: 1.08929–1.08700 Target Level: 1.08300 Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
EUR USD, awaiting the fresh supply (weekly)G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Imbalances Weekly Imbalances Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
EURUSD Double Top OpportunityHi Traders! EURUSD is forming a potential double-top pattern, and there is great risk-reward potential for shorting opportunities near the resistance. Here are the details: The market tested the previous month's high of 1.10173, but the bears are holding very strongly around this level, which has currently formed a double-top pattern on the chart. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 1.09960 Stop Level: 0.65089 Target Level: 1.10771 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
4
USDCAD Approaching The 3-Month NecklineHi Traders! USDCAD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern and is approaching the neckline. Here are the details: There is a current lack of buyers in the market, and the market is trending down with swings of lower highs and lower lows. Our plan is to sell rallies looking for a break below the neckline and target the 3-month low at the 1.33802 level. Preferred Direction: Sell Entry Level: 1.35738 Stop Level: 1.36663 Target Level: 1.33802 Technical Indicators: 20 EMA Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
4
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Pullback to Previous Triangle BreakHi Traders! EURUSD is on a pullback after breaking and closing above the ascending triangle resistance, and there are opportunities for short entries to target the previous resistance break. Price Action 📊 After the intital break and close above the triangle resistance, the market rallied to create a new monthly high at the 1.09652 level. Now the market is on a pullback to possibly re-test the triangle break. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The ECB said on Tuesday that the eurozone's struggling commercial property sector could continue for years, which poses a big threat to the banks and investors that financed it. Additionally, the ECB recently confirmed that interest rates will remain unchanged for the next few quarters, which will reduce demand for the euro. Support 📉 1.07564: PREVIOUS TRENDLINE RESISTANCE Resistance 📈 1.09652: WEEKLY HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - CHFJPY Resistance SHORT IdeaHi Traders! There is a resistance short-to-support opportunity on the CHFJPY 1D chart. Price Action 📊 The market has reached the 2-month resistance at 166.601 (August 2023 high), and bears are currently holding strong at this level. A continued hold here will most likely lead to a pullback to the support level at 164.000. We are looking for the bears to hold and close below the market resistance level, which will be an entry signal to go short at the resistance level. Fundamental Analysis 📰 With the current rising geopolitical tensions, the safe-haven proxy currencies, CHF and JPY, tend to be the likely outperformers in the foreign exchange market.   Support 📉 164.000: PREVIOUS RESISTANCE Resistance 📈 166.601: AUGUST 2023 HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
1
BluetonaFX - EURNZD Head & Shoulders SHORT IdeaHi Traders! EURNZD has a potential head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the 1D chart, and there are opportunities for short entries to lead to a possible neckline break. Price Action 📊 Recent lower market swings with lower highs and lower lows, and the market is about to break back below the 20 EMA. We are looking for bearish momentum to fully complete the right shoulder and lead to a break and close below the neckline. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The NZD has found strength and bounced off session lows due to the parliamentary elections, as the country voted for a change in parliament. Support 📉 1.75127: NECKLINE Resistance 📈 1.78600: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
5
BluetonaFX - USDCAD Cup & Handle Pattern SHORT IdeaHi Traders! There is a potential cup and handle pattern forming on the 4H USDCAD chart, and there is potential for further moves to the downside depending on whether we get an important support price break. Price Action 📊 The market has had an up wave to start the cup pattern and a down wave to finish the cup pattern. The market has now almost reached our support level at 1.35618, and there is potential here for a market consolidation period, which will be the cup handle. We are looking for a momentum price break and a close below the support line at 1.35618 for further continuation to the downside. Fundamental Analysis 📰 Traders are currently nervous about the US dollar. With the Fed Minutes meeting tomorrow, the market will be looking for hawkish statements from the Fed in response to the very strong economic data recently published.   Support 📉 1.35618: SUPPORT LINE Resistance 📈 1.36022: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - NZDJPY Rising Wedge SHORT IdeaHi Traders! There is a rising wedge pattern on NZDJPY, which signals a possible reversal of the bullish trend we have seen over the past few months. Price Action 📊 There was an aggressive upside price rejection candle followed by a momentum break below the 20 EMA. This shows that there may be new waves of bearish volume entering the market. We are looking for a bearish break and a close below the support trendline. Fundamental Analysis 📰 New Zealand left their interest rates unchanged, and the dovish statement from the RNBZ has left the NZD under some selling pressure. Support 📉 87.094: PREVIOUS DAY'S LOW Resistance 📈 89.251: PEVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
3
BluetonaFX - NZDUSD Bear Flag SHORT IdeaHi Traders! There is a bear flag pattern on NZDUSD, and there is a possibility of a continuation of the bearish trend if we get a break of the flag channel. Price Action 📊 There is a lack of bullish momentum in the market due to a lack of market swings to counter the bearish trend; this tells us that the bears are in full control of this market. We are looking for further bearish momentum to break and close below the flag's channel. Fundamental Analysis 📰 Traders are currently very bullish on the US dollar due to the very strong economic data and positive statements from the Federal Reserve. Support 📉 0.58892: FLAG CHANNEL SUPPORT Resistance 📈 0.60483: FLAG CHANNEL RESISTANCE Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
1
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD Descending Triangle SHORT IdeaHi Traders! GBPUSD is under serious pressure, and there is a possibility of price breaking below the four-month low. Price Action 📊 The market has reached the four-month low, creating a descending triangle pattern on the chart. We are looking for further bearish momentum to break and close the trendline support line. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The market's outlook on GBP is currently negative due to weak economic data recently released. Traders will be looking for positive statements from the Monetary Policy Summary later today.   Support 📉 1.23081: 4 MONTH LOW Resistance 📈 1.24216: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX GBPJPY Trendline Break SHORT IdeaHi Traders! GBPJPY is approaching its trendline support, and there is a possibility of a breakout to the downside. Price Action 📊 For the past four weeks, the market swings have consistently shown lower and lower lows, which indicates a current lack of buyers in the market. We are looking for a trendline support break and a close below the 180.814 level. Fundamental Analysis 📰 The market's outlook on GBP is currently negative due to weak economic data recently released. The outlook on the GBP looks very negative at the moment, and the demand for the currency is very low. Support 📉 180.814: MONTHLY LOW FOR SEPTEMBER Resistance 📈 181.958: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Short
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD Triangle Opportunity Target HITHi Traders! Our GBPUSD descending triangle setup from this morning (PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW) has hit the first target at 1.27814. After breaking the support level at 1.28038, there was bearish momentum at the break to continue comfortably to our first price target, and we just missed the second target by three pips.  Now we will wait and see if the market continues down to the second target at 1.27678 or if the market consolidates around 1.27814. Please like, comment and follow to support us, we greatly appreciate it. Thank you for your support.  BluetonaFX 
by BluetonaFX
2
AUDUSD BEAR FLAG 30/05/2023 IDEA UPDATEHi Traders! Our AUDUSD bear flag idea on the 30/05/2023 (LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW) broke and closed to the downside of the flag around 0.64904 to fulfil our idea. We got to the 0.64583 level (near our 0.64500 forecast) when we noticed a big volume spike on our volume indicator. This let us know that a lot of traders were exiting positions due to the May 2023 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement tomorrow. The market is now thin and volatile, so 0.64583 was a great exit price if you entered and held from the flag breakout at 0.64904. We will continue to analyse the markets and inform you if any opportunities arise, but please be careful as the markets are very thin and there is a current lack of volume due to the NFP announcement tomorrow. Please do not forget to comment, like and follow. We appreciate your support. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
GBPUSD 12/05/2023 IDEA UPDATEHi Traders! Our trendline break setup on 12/05/2023 fulfilled our idea, we rallied to retest the trendline break and had a small squeeze back inside the trendline before moving back down. There was a great risk-reward opportunity here for a re-entry short and we are now looking for another test of May 2023's lowest level at 1.24355 to see if we can break and continue to the downside. We will continue to keep a close eye on this one and will inform you of any other setups we identify. Please like, comment and follow to support us. We really appreciate it. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
GBPUSD Trade Idea - Trendline BreakHi Traders! We almost end the trading week with a trendline break. After failing to push through the major 12 month resistance high, we had a big momentum swing down looking to test the lowest point of May 2023 at 1.24355. We must break this level with momentum to continue down looking for further support around the 1.23448 level. There may be another opportunity for another entry if there is a successful retest of the trendline break to continue to the downside. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. We appreciate your support! BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
Trading Day Morning Jumpstart ahead of the Asian sessionMarkets held up okay in the US session but the pressure is definitely on as major Indexes across the board start to break lower. I cover the key markets for the start of the new session ahead of the Asian market open. Major levels to watch and the current bias for markets....and how I would look to trade around these levels. Markets covered : - SP500, DOW, Nasdaq, ASX200, HSI, Nikkei, DAX and FTSE US DOllar index, AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY Oil, Gold and Copper Bitcoin and Ethereum
NYMEX:CL1!
by TradeTheStructure
POTENTIAL LONGER TERM BUY OPPORTUNITY IN SUSHIUSDTThanks for reading my previous post on AUDNZD,ADAUSDT,BTCUSDT,ONEUSDT and now SUSHI USDT I believe there is a value BUY now on SUSHI USDT to hold for a longer term based on technicals and new fundamental development in the DEFI space. There is huge opportunity for the SUSHI PLATFORM to explode as it delves into different forms of Yield Farming and also helping users to lower cost across many chains of interoperability. My first scenario of short opportunity is currently playing out and it's nearing my new buy entry for a longer term @ near $4.50. This is the scenario am voting for should in case the Crypto market choose to move 100X. I hope you enjoy reading this and hopefully profit from it
Long
by LukmanBalogun
$XLY potential breakoutXLY Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF saw a buyer of the 12/17 187C for $2.5M in premium last week Top holdings are AMAZON and TESLA. I like both these stocks from a technical perspective and a "cheaper" trade would be to go long XLY :) (Higher premiums on AMZN and TSLA). From a technical perspective XLY has bullish Momo and a strong close above 21EMA. Looking for a $186 blue sky breakout this week and she can really fly. Also worth noting 9/20 Wyckoff "more effort less result" which is a bullish indication - notice the high volume from the sellers (exhaustion) with price action staying above the 8/17 lows.
AMEX:XLYLong
by FriscoTrades