Intraday AB=CD on NQWe took an intraday play this AM under 13900....just for an expected run to around 14100-14150. Wasn't sure how the movement would play out...but overall it was a "Fire and Forget" kind of day. A perfect Monday IMO. Looks like she's going to complete an AB=CD....Im setting the final PT around 075-100 for the intraday run. Stops set at 13975 and trailing from here. Still holding the 25% left on Primary position from 12725 to run to 14500-15k or as close to that as possible. See y'all tomorrow bright and early!
Technician
Looking for signal to short this bloody equity rally?I have a solution. Use the moving average 50 period low.
Check the 4h chart on US30.
Insert a 50 period moving average low.
Insert support and resistance lines.
You will notice a couple of things, at the end of the last equity rally, it was profitable to short the market EVERY TIME once the price CLOSED below the 50MA. In other words you couldn't go wrong using this signal.
In the current rally, the MA50 has acted as a support EVERY TIME (along with upward trend). A close below this line will be a good time to sell based in historical patterns. A close below the upward trending black support as well will confirm selling signal.
We are approaching historical resistance and I'm expecting the price to fall below the MA50 soon - probably this week.
The rally has taken many scalps. Don't be cannon fodder. Trade wisely. There are many fundamental reasons why this rally should end, I feel that this rally is purely technical.
Re: STOCKS: DESPITE RALLY, INVESTORS REMAIN DEFENSIVE! Seeing a great idea from our dear mod Technician, i decided to check this a bit more and see if there is any tight correlation. Going backwards i actually does show some correlation in 2011 and 2007. Whenever XLY/XLP changed a trend and/or showed divergence to the price action, the stock index would go down as well. The ration was good to be used to see the top even - something you dont quite see everyday.
Still after 2000, the ratio was not the best to follow. While it was going up, the stock marktes were going down. I guess the crashes were different and one of the pair was acting differently (most probably; further checking needed). Still should one believe the current dip may be a prequel to a a-la-2008 dip, then XLY/XLP is setting up for that - there is so far a downward trading channel, and the current top in it is the current top in the stock index. Should the ratio dip below the previous trend support line (1.40 - 1.47 depending on the place), it may be 2011-type first, and then see for yourself. A good idea to monitor these still, and something i discovered for myself. Again, props to Technician for bringing this to my attention.