NASDAQ downside risk, clear and presentSimilar to the SPY analysis, the NASDAQ is actually slightly more bearish looking...
The daily NQ1! chart has bearish indicators all around, and already is in the immediate downside target range, albeit earlier than projected. The recently broken supports now become resistances.
The weekly chart appears even more bearish with the June lows appearing to be easily taken out, and a breakdown to <10,000 very feasible over the next 4-6 weeks.
Technology
8 Reasons Why Medtronic is a Great Investment OptionMedtronic is a medical device company that focuses on research, development, manufacturing, and distribution of various medical devices. The company has grown rapidly in the last few years thanks to its strong performance and focus on innovation. In this article, we will discuss why Medtronic remains a strong investment option with a promising future ahead.
Reasons to invest in Medtronic
The strong financial position of Medtronic is one of the main reasons to invest in it. The company’s debt-to-equity ratio is below 1.0, which means that its debt is well below its equity base. This is an important ratio to watch as an investor, especially if the company is heavy on debt – as that indicates that the company may run into trouble in the future especially in times like these where interest rates are going up. The company’s return on equity (ROE) is consistently above its cost of equity, which means that it is earning much more than its shareholders could expect in a risk-free investment. Similarly, Medtronic’s debt-to-asset ratio is below 40%, which shows that its debt is lower than its assets. This is important to look at when evaluating a company’s financial position, as it indicates the company is mostly likely to be able to pay back its debt even in a worst-case scenario.
Strong Financial Position
Another factor to consider when evaluating a company’s financial position is its liquidity. Liquidity is the ability of a company to quickly turn its assets into cash if needed. When it comes to Medtronic, the company has enough liquidity thanks to its cash on hand, cash from operations, and other short-term investments that can easily be turned into cash. Similarly, Medtronic’s current ratio (the number of current assets compared to current liabilities) is above 1.0, which indicates that the company has enough current assets to meet its current liabilities. This ratio is important to look at because it indicates whether or not a company can meet its short-term obligations while also pursuing long-term goals.
Strong Track Record of Growth Through Acquisitions
Medtronic has a strong track record of growth through acquisitions, having acquired dozens of companies in its history. This is important to watch out for when investing in a company – especially if it has a history of poor acquisitions. This can lead to lost capital for investors as well as a company that is unfocused. However, the acquisitions Medtronic has made have all been successful and focused around the company’s core business. This has allowed Medtronic to offer a wide range of products around the world while also keeping its R&D focused on the most important innovations.
Integration of CareLink with Guardian 2 platform
Another example of a successful acquisition is when Medtronic purchased CareLink in 2015 for $250 million. CareLink is a company focused on creating remote patient monitoring solutions that are designed to help patients manage chronic diseases at home. Following the acquisition, CareLink was integrated into Medtronic’s Guardian 2 remote care platform, which connects patients and doctors while also allowing patients to monitor their own health. This represents a huge opportunity for Medtronic as it expands its remote monitoring capabilities. This is especially relevant as more and more people are living with chronic conditions that require consistent monitoring. This is expected to lead to a huge opportunity for remote monitoring solutions in the future.
Solid Return on Investment for Medtronic Investors
When looking at the company’s return on investment (ROI), it is important to note that this is a long-term number. This means that you want to see a high ROI, but this number is not as important as a company’s short-term numbers. However, when it comes to investment, the long-term numbers are actually more important than the short-term numbers. The short-term numbers are important because they indicate how strong of a short-term investment a company is. The long-term numbers are important because they show the potential for long-term growth.
Solid Base of Popular Brands/Products for Medtronic
Another important factor to look at when evaluating Medtronic is its core products and brands. These are the products and brands that define Medtronic as a company, and they are what has helped the company grow over the last few decades. These products/brands can give us insight into Medtronic’s future plans, because the company has to consistently update and improve these products to meet consumer demand.
Medtronic is venturing into the artificial intelligence space
One of the biggest trends in the medical device industry is the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). AI can be used to help medical devices better understand their environment and collect data/information on patients while also allowing them to communicate with other devices. This can be extremely helpful in the medical device industry, especially when it comes to remote monitoring solutions – which is an area in which Medtronic is already growing. One of Medtronic’s key acquisitions in recent years was HealthMine, which is a company focused on the AI space within medical devices. This acquisition could allow Medtronic to significantly expand its AI capabilities and help the company keep up with the latest trends in its industry.
Financials
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Dividend Yield %
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Summing up
There are many reasons why Medtronic is a great investment option. The company has a strong financial position, a strong track record of growth through acquisitions, an integration of its CareLink acquisition with its Guardian 2 platform, a solid base of popular brands/products for Medtronic, and Medtronic is venturing into the artificial intelligence space. These are all reasons to invest in Medtronic because they show a strong future ahead.
NASDAQ decision time soonusing Nasdaq futures to monitor the long term trendline from 1999 till now... we violently broke the trend in 2008, but bounced beautifully in 2018/2020 and I think we soon get a decision on how price will act this time around... it should also let us know what to expect for tech valuations in the coming months/year!
MSFT: Head, shoulders, knees and toesMicrosoft has painted a head & shoulders formation, and is on track to confirm a neckline break on the daily and weekly timeframes. Expect a continuation of the downtrend on this neckline break, as well as further index weakness given MSFT's tremendous weight in the indices.
Notes:
Confirmation still required on neckline break, a wick below is insufficient.
Weekly closure above the neckline will invalidate the pattern.
NASDAQ hits the other type of bump!You could be well forgiven if you thought that the market was toying with you... in the last three weeks, we saw the NASDAQ follow through downside strongly, then ricochet off a support strongly, only to be yet again totally overwhelmed by the bears mauling the markets. In these volatile times, one need to be nimble, and this had been recently heads up in my earlier analyses. Having said all that, something interesting appears to have presented itself, particularly in the NASDAQ futures, NQ1!, and I do wonder how many had actually noticed this enigma. It will be discussed here, and we have to play the bull bear scenarios yet again; expected as the volatility is high and sudden changes can and will happen.
We start with the NQ1! NASDAQ futures daily chart. We see that the week started as expected with a nice gap up follow through from last week Friday, above the 55EMA. Then with a Powell Pow-Wow, one single day engulfed and wiped out 3 days worth of gains, closing two gap ups. Extremely bearish by any standards. The following day was a weak technical rebound, and then a second bearish engulfing type of price action. On Friday, it gapped down, and made a lower low. Only respite is a late session recovery to close the day as a very interesting candlestick known as the Dragonfly Doji . This doji represents a likely bounce, and is a pre-cursor to a possible bottom, or at least a consolidation. The MACD is starting to show a bullish divergence, and it is starting to appear that a bottom may be forming. But till then, the MACD (lagging as it is) is suggesting that there is more downside or a consolidation at best.
Hence, we can draw a critical support line ( the thick yellow line) where price action should remain, and close above for a bullish or consolidation range; otherwise, a breakdown to the previous downside targets is more likely.
Without doubt, the daily chart appears to be more bearish than bullish, but the weekly chart has much more than meets the eye.
Over the last three weeks, the NQ1! NASDAQ futures weekly candle range is clearly increasing, and appears erratic with a down up down pattern. Zooming out, the symmetrical pattern projection suggest that the NASDAQ is due for a further slide down to below 10K. The technical indicators are divergent in the sense that the MACD is bearish, and yet the shorter term RPM is suggesting some bullishness. How now brown cow?
Perhaps if we also take the candlestick patterns to the next level, we might get a clearer hint. The three recent weekly candles circled represent a group of three candlesticks called a Stick Sandwich . In this set of candlestick pattern, regardless of how it looks (bearish) it is typically a bullish reversal pattern at the bottom of a downtrend. Now, to take the bullish scenario, it is nearing the end of a pattern, and the downtrend has been going on for a bit (since Nov 2021 high); so if this is a bullish reversal, then it might be a higher low on the weekly chart. In order for this to pan out, it needs to recover quite strongly over the next couple of weeks, and we can set the resistance at about 13K (thick green line).
Overall, this gives us a rather large range from 11,900 to 12,900, and time is needed to see what/where the market decides. Non-technical factors adding to volatility include FOMC announcement on 21 September. Am not an expert about that, but all I can comment is that volatility both ways is a given. Hence, the range guidance.
Still, keep in mind the initial and base projection down to 9500, it is not invalidated yet.
IMHPO, the I think the bears have a 70/30 edge; am just ready to be nimble (particularly in mindset, perception and timeframe), as the charts are telling.
I really hope you enjoyed and appreciate my rather unique analysis. Admittedly, there are parts not mentioned, but do contribute to the overall situational critical analysis. I do not mention as I am not an expert (yet) in those areas although some factors are considered in the overall analysis. More importantly, there are links for further background reading, so do click on them and enjoy the read. Looking forward to your comments...
Stay safe & well, be nimble.
Have a great week ahead!
9/11/22 NFLXNetflix, Inc ( NASDAQ:NFLX )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $103.870B
Current Price: $233.57
Breakout price trigger: $236.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $232.30-$211.85
Price Target: $246.60-$250.60 (1st), $298.20-$304.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 13-15d (1st), 54-57d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $NFLX 9/23/22 235c, $NFLX 11/18/22 240c
Trade price as of publish date: $8.00/contract, $20.95/contract
NASDAQ bump!The NASDAQ (like the SPY) did a spectacular turnaround week...
Last week appeared so bearish with all indication pointing to the down draft to the last low, and this past week appears to have changed that trajectory. Here is why:
The NASDAQ weekly chart closed the week the a bullish candle, one that is significant because it almost qualifies as a Bullish Engulfing (very similar less small strict technical details). More importantly, the bullish candle closed above the previous week's gap down range, a bullish indication.
The technical indicators are not yet aligned as the RPM indicates upward momentum, but the MACD pretty much crossed under the Signal line.
The daily chart has a clearer bullish confirmation pattern, and is a possible higher low pivot. The week had started with bearish days and mid-week came a clear Bullish Engulfing type of candlestick pattern. This was followed through by a nice bullish candle with a lower tail, and beautifully completed by a Gap Up (uncommon for futures) and run to close a previous gap down range. Oddly, it is at a confluence point of the daily 55EMA as well as the resistance of a trend line (green down sloping trend line).
The really nice thing is that the technical indicators, both the RPM and MACD are aligned and supportive of a bullish follow through.
There are a couple of resistances marked out, and breaking each one would give the bulls more impetus to charge upwards.
Appears as if a higher low is formed, and if so, watch for a higher high (13.5K)... ranges are bigger and wider now, so have to be careful.
stay safe!
SPY Cycle Patterns are incredible.Have you ever seen anything that can attempt to predict price trends 30 to 60+ days in advance? Other than Japanese Candlesticks, and quite possibly Elliot Wave, I've never seen anything have the predictive qualities of my short-term & long-term Cycle Patterns.
This is a Daily SPY chart highlighting the cycle patterns that aligned with certain days. As I'm watching these cycle patterns unfold, I'm seeing more and more details emerge.
For example, the current week showed the following:
9-4: Temp Bottom
9-5: Top/Resistance
9-6: Breakdown
9-7: Carryover
9-8: Inside-Breakaway
9-9: Breakaway
9-10: Rally
9-11: N/A
9-12: N/A
A temporary bottom, followed by a top/breakdown in trend on 9-5/9-6. The "carryover" pattern can act like a reversion price trend, or a continuation price trend. Today it resulted in a reversion higher.
Tomorrow the cycle patterns are predicting an Inside-Breakaway followed by a Rally on Friday (9-9 & 9-10).
I expect the US markets will rally higher on some news related to some moderate global crisis. This may send Gold/Silver higher and may drag Bitcoin higher as well. What I expect is a flood of moderate buying to close out this week - catching traders by surprise.
NASDAQ continues tumble towards targetJust a quick review on the week after Powell's Pow Wow speech that sent markets off a cliff...
The weekly NASDAQ futures chart had a rather uncommon gap down that failed a close attempt. The week closed down near the lows as well. MACD turned down and is about to cross under the MACD Signal, and well as into the bear territory. All these happening after a failure of the 55EMA three weeks ago. Taken together, it is not looking good at all, and the technical structure warns badly for the next 7 to 8 weeks.
A target area of 11-11.5K is expected, but with such initial momentum, it appears that the NASDAQ is more likely to dip below 10K level within the next 8 weeks. This is observable only form the weekly chart itself!
Turning to the daily chart, we can see that the last week had bulls struggling with an early but futile attempt to close the gap. This created top tails by mid-week which indicated more downside probability (as expected), and despite a rally on some good data later in the week, the bearishness overwhelmed into closing on Friday. The technical indicator RPM is showing a strong momentum, and the MACD signal is already in bearish territory.
11750 appears as an immediate support, which is not likely to hold out long, but is likely to offer a breather of the bear charge next week. The gap range formed in the week's opening is now a resistance zone.
Overall, there is a strong bearish background, but the week incoming should offer a pause, and some sort of a muted technical bounce. Thus far, the modelling targets the NASDAQ below 10K. Until there is a clear break of this model projection, which might take at least a month to form, the NASDAQ is following the projection; heads up.
what a great stock to own long termfacebook is one of those companies that is pretty well here to stay. i could see this over $600 one day. once we get over TRAMA and sss, qqe go green i would have no problem averaging into this for a passive investment in tech. facebook will always think of new ways to squeeze more money out of their user data.
TESLA Bull Flag almost completed. Strong chances for $340 in OctTesla (TSLA) is trading within a Channel Down ever since the August 04 High, which following the rally since June 16, whose Higher Lows trend-line is intact, can be viewed as a technical Bull Flag formation. This pattern is common after strong rallies and Tesla's has been more than +50% within a 3 month span, with profit taking on the medium-term coming as a natural reaction.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) are intact and still supporting. In fact the MA50 is about to cross above the MA100 for the first Bullish Cross pattern since August 12 2021. With the MACD on the 1W time-frame still on a strong Bullish Cross, as long as the June 16 HL hold, it is more likely to see a new rebound towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the top of the long-term Channel Down.
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AMAZON formed a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Accumulation ahead.It's been only 1.5 month since our long-term buy call on Amazon (AMZN):
The price rose aggressively after weeks of accumulation within the 1W MA200/300 and as we projected broke out hitting almost the first important long-term Resistance (1W MA50). On August 16 the price was rejected exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the point of rejection on the previous Lower High (March 29) of this 2022 correction phase.
The stock rose almost +45% from its June 14 Low, so profit taking was expected. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level broke and the price is just above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The former crossed today above the latter forming a technical Bullish Cross, the first such formation since December 03 2021. That was a far from ideal pattern as it broke the uptrend's Higher Lows trend-line and basically was at the start of the 2022 correction phase.
This time the Higher Lows trend-line is much lower (currently around $114.40) so on the medium-term we remain on a downtrend, until the 1W MA50 and Lower Highs Zone break. However, it is the first time we have such a strong and long uptrend on the 1W RSI, with its Higher Lows trend-line still intact.
Practically, as long as the 1D MA50/100 hold, we can expect a re-test of the 1D MA200. If they break, there is still a chance of finding Support on the 0.618 Fib. Further selling can be done below the Higher Lows trend-line.
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Bull Signals for Apple StockBased on my calculations, the most distant point at the predictory period shown by the blue line is an ideal time to begin dollar cost averaging into AAPL stock; Based on Fibonacci calculations (with 10 week constraints ), a strong bullish sign is evident within the coming weeks. Now's the time to buy the dip.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is currently in a primary dip period, meaning it is a prime opportunity for the outlooked wealth transfer towards retail investors like us.
AAPL has been on a tear since its lows in early 2016, and has more than doubled in price. However, the stock has pulled back in recent months and is now trading around its primary dip period lows. This could be a sign that the wealth is starting to transfer towards retail investors, and now may be a prime opportunity to buy AAPL.
Apple is a technology giant and is well-positioned to benefit from the growth of the global technology sector. The company has a strong brand and a loyal customer base, and is well-positioned to continue to grow in the years ahead.
Apple is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18, which is a bit higher than the broader market, but the company is expected to grow at a rate of around 10% in the years ahead, which justifies the premium.
Overall, Apple is a strong company with a bright future, and now may be a good time to buy the stock. The wealth appears to be transferring towards retail investors, and AAPL is trading at a discount to its fair value.
Executing a long position with a minimum of a 6 month time-frame.
NASDAQ - Powell Pow WowLast words from the last analysis were: " be cautious as volatility will spike! "
And Powelll delivered a strong stance which blew volatility to a monthly high, up 17% for the VIX.
The weekly NASDAQ chart completed the bearish candlestick pattern on a 55EMA failure, and sliced through the 13K support. This is totally not bullish for the next couple of weeks.
Downside targets now appear the last low (in October) or a more ominous symmetry projection farther down at 9.5K. The weekly technical indicators currently do not suggest enough bearish power to reach there (yet) and 11.5K higher low appears plausible at the moment. Thing is... next month's Fed meet will firmly provide enough volatility for the next few weeks.
The NASDAQ daily chart demonstrates how a reality statement could drive home a message. It can in the form of a Bearish Engulfing, that broke down the 13K support and 55EMA, forming a lower high. Bearish technical indicators have been suggesting this for the past week or two, so should not be much surprise here.
Both daily and weekly charts are aligned in bearish tones (as expected earlier), so perhaps an early week technical bounce, and then later week, or the week after, push down is likely...
The MARA-ETH relationship goalsA good buddy gave some heads up about MARA, and we had a short discussion about MARA. He mentioned that MARA and Crypto had some relationship and I was a little skeptical that MARA would be close enough in relation to crypto, and also wondered if there was any relationship, what might it be.
So, from purely a technical perspective, I pulled up MARA and overlaid ETHUSD on the weekly chart. Some adjustment requires for the overlay and it appeared that my buddy was perhaps onto something! Honestly, I have not enough research into MARA, but for what it is worth, it appears that MARA leads ETHUSD, in a somewhat casual open relationship IMHO (pun not intended).
You see, as MARA rallies, it does this ahead of ETHUSD. And it also appears to lead in the downside aspects too. Both have about 1-2 week lead.
Currently, it does appear that MARA is in bearish stance, with a bearish candle last week that closed a gap. Technical indicators apparently struggle to mitigate the bearishness.
In the daily MARA chart, the recent rally is oer, with a solid gap down end of last week. Technical indicators also support a bearish stance, with more downside expected.
Immediate support levels are about 12, and then 8.50. Resistance is clearly at 14.
Given this casual relationship, if it is sufficiently robust to hold, we might co-relate that ETHUSD is having some downside risk for the rest of August, and into early September, with a possible bounce off later in September, perhaps on the back of The Merge?
I would keep an eye out on MARA... just to see if this relationship achieves some longer term goals.
Tell me what you think, and if this makes sense to you too?
AAPD AAPL LONG (inverse) SETUPAAPL is pulling back today, and so setting up AAPD for a swing long.
As can be seen on the 15 minute chart, AAPD had a pullback for consolidation and is now showing
some green candles. The Williams alligator is showing divergence on the short time frame moving
averages. The RSI indicator topped out pulled back and is now in uptrend showing bullish confirmation.
I have entered this trade to participate in the AAPL pullback which as a titan of the NASDAQ
affects the whole market. a decent position in AAPD ( along with SQQQ) will serve
to hedge the market a bit.
Amazon monthly may need reworkingthe long term picture for amazon.com, and really the whole dotcom sector has looked bleak until recently. i would wait to cross above this pivot and trama to turn up before i thought we could continue recovering in technology. id aim for upper horizontals as we cross above levels and lower horizontals as we cross below.
short at key resistance levelsthis ramge will continue to tighten, and we will likely get a bear break. above pivot target upper horizontals below pivot aim for lower horizontals. semiconductors have been a major focal point of this bear market, and they will be a big recovery story when we exit it.
NASDAQ retracement ONThe NASDAQ over-extended its upside target and the later part of last week stalled and started to retrace. Nothing exciting here as it was expected for weeks. lol
So the NASDAQ Futures Weekly chart how a (breakout) failure of the 55EMA, and somewhat of a bearish reversal top candlestick pattern in the likes of a Dark Cloud Cover of sorts, or two-thirds of a Three Inside Down. Both suggest that the upcoming week would more likely be a down week. Notably, this past week completes the patterns symmetry of the NASDAQ fall magnitudes, as mentioned in previous earlier post.
The Daily chart shows the completed trend reversal pattern (wave 1-5) of a series of higher lows and higher highs. And now, a retracement is in order, in a somewhat expected fashion. MACD and RPM both clearly indicate the retracement. This drawback should be looking for the 13K (or rather 12,900) support. A weaker market is more likely to bring it down to 12,000 or lower instead... perhaps later in September.
I am in two minds at this point and here is why...
The Daily chart appears to have turned around the trend into a bullish recovery. BUT, the weekly chart is in need of a higher low, which may have a 2000 point range at least. The two things that bugs me bad is the failure of the weekly 55EMA, and the distance from breaking above 14,400 for a weekly bullish clearance. Overall, the weekly chart is not ready (yet) to launch the next bull trend despite having pretty decent technical indicators.
Stay safe and well... be cautious as volatility will spike!
Cisco Systems bullish scenario:The technical figure Channel Down can be found in the daily chart in the US company Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). Cisco Systems, Inc., commonly known as Cisco, is an American-based multinational technology conglomerate corporation. Integral to the growth of Silicon Valley, Cisco develops, manufactures, and sells networking hardware, software, telecommunications equipment and other high-technology services and products. Cisco specializes in specific tech markets, such as the Internet of Things (IoT), domain security, videoconferencing, and energy management with leading products including Webex, OpenDNS, Jabber, Duo Security, and Jasper. The Channel Down has broken through the resistance line on 17/08/2022, if the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 49 days towards 50.14 USD. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 41.03 USD if you decide to enter this position.
Cisco stock pops on fourth-quarter earnings beat. Cisco has been on the top and the bottom line for its fourth quarter results, with the networking equipment maker beating on adjusted earnings per share. Those came in at $0.83. The Street was expecting $0.82. Revenue for the fourth quarter came in at $13.1 billion. The Street was expecting $12.73 billion. But the Street really likes its first quarter revenue guidance because the company guiding anywhere between 2% and 4% growth year over year for the first quarter. The Street was expecting a decline of 0.24%.
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$HUB.TA Outpaces CyberSecurity Sector Ahead of NASDAQ ListingAfter hitting dramatic lows in June that saw the ^IXIC (Nasdaq Comp. Index) down >30% YTD, Nasdaq and the tech sector as a whole has witnessed a bullish rally over the past month. Despite some of the tech giants missing the mark on Q2 earnings, Nasdaq has enjoyed robust capital inflows in the past month as investor sentiment begins to improve. The passage of the US CHIPS Act last week was seen by many tech investors as a windfall for the semiconductor, chips, and computing industry thanks to upcoming subsidies and governmental incentives for domestic manufacturers; this legislative action has infused some confidence into the broader market.
One area of the broader tech space that has consistently traded strongly despite poor performance this year are cyber security stocks. The rising trend of offensive cyber operations targeting public and private actors alike has reinforced the critical need for cyber defensive architecture. The HXR Cyber ETF as well as RDWR are +12% and +8.3% respectively, closely tracking QQQ's +12% jump the past month. Other have shown more modest growth, such as PANQ (+2%) and CHKP (+2.6%).
And then onto the outliers. FTNT got hammered in August with 12% losses due to erroneous revenue guidance issued by management on top of some analyst downgrades to overvalued. In other words, looks like Fortinet is going through a short-term correction.
Our bullish outlier is HUB Security, as Israeli confidential computing equity that is in the final stages of completing a SPAC-driven NASDAQ listing. HUB shares on TASE are up 38% in the past month and continuing to climb as more investors jump on board in anticipation of the company's much-vaunted US listing.
8/10/22 ZSZscaler Inc ( NASDAQ:ZS )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $23.182B
Current Price: $180.41
Breakout Price: $186.75
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $169.90-$144.00
Price Target: $218.00-$224.00 (1st)
Estimated Duration to Target: 54-57d
Contract of Interest: $ZS 10/21/22 180c
Trade price as of publish date: $21.25/contract