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oversold semiconductors (SOXL)if critical support provides meaningful buy volume and we close the week near the highs then semiconductors, and the broader market could exhibit a bounce here towards lower 36s. if we see another wave of selling down at these levels were probably blowing through that support on the weekly trending toward upper 16s taking the market with it as semiconductors are a lead bear. keep TRAMA from sinking and come out of oversold STOCH and we could diverge bullishly. if things head for continuation it is likely more bearish.
AMEX:SOXLShort
by cerealpatterns
4
Global Market FLUSH OUT is nearly over (for now)Get ready for support to be found over the next week or two as the fear of risks seems to be subsiding. Yes, the Fed is threatening more rate hikes, but the markets have already revalued substantially over the past few weeks given the broad global market collapse and the -25% collapse in the NASDAQ. Traders need to start thinking about "what comes next"? My research suggests the next move will be a move higher - not LOWER. This recent correction in the markets reflects a broad delivering event across the globe. The excesses of the past 5+ years culminated in a peak in 2021. Most of 2021 was spent moving away from risks related to the excesses/speculative phase. Far too many people are seeing this as a bubble-burst (which it may still turn into if the Fed/Global Central Banks make the wrong moves) - but ultimately, the printing of capital may "grease the wheels" of the global economy in such a way that GROWTH becomes the next factor over the next 10+ years. Yes, asset prices, like homes, gas, cars, and others, may subside a bit (very similar to 1984 to 1994), but this reversion of asset prices (moving away from excesses) may be a very healthy process for the markets. Get ready. I think we are going to see the start of an intermediate base/bottom starting to setup soon.
FX:NAS100Long
by BradMatheny
NASDAQ gave way into MayAnother down week in the NASDAQ, as expected. PReviousl expectations were generall in line, although how things panned out were more volatile... bearish for NASDAQ IMHO. The weekly chart looks even worse now than previously, and it is not about breaking below 13K conclusively. It did a swooping technical rebound, only to be a dead cat bounce, where the next session wiped out the week's worth of effort to recover 13K. This resulted in a long upper tailed candle; in both charts showing the bearish momentum and that it is more likely to continue. The 12600 light support held up for now, and given the candlestick patterns and technicals, further downside should be expected, albeit volatile attempts to test 13K. Previously marked out 11700 for next support once 12600 gives way; downside target now projected (by Fibonacci projections) at 11,100, about early to mid-June 2022. It is very possible to see a quick dip in the coming week to 11,700, then a sizeable rebound, only to push down yet again. Let's see... tread carefully. Bearish is as it bearish does.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
1
aapl weekly chart bounce or break?aapl at inflection point of support/resistance on the chart after creating a weekly higher low will it confirm old resistance as support and bounce or breakdown and make new lows so i am looking for it to hold the 50 ema on the weekly for any possibility for upside if we break that and are trendline support drawn on the chart i will have downside pts at 145 and 138 max pain at 116 (if this abc elliott wave pattern plays out we can see a 1,2,3,4,5 down to are pts) this is a heavy weight stock in spy so check out my analysis on that for context
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Danieldaytrades
NASDAQ Broken below 13KBAD NEWS here... for many, not all. The NASDAQ followed through with the heavy downside momentum, and broke below 13,000! Worse, it closed the week below the 13,000 (and the 12,900 intraday buffer set out earlier). The weekly chart show nice long candles that end the weeks very close to the low or at the low, showing the continued downside momentum that is not at all easing. MACD suggest more downside in the weeks to come, although the RPM is suggesting some mitigation in the downslide. 12600 is a light support, and 11730 is the next major support (50% Fib). The daily chart is bearish clearly. Having to reclaim above 13K would also mean a gap closure above 13180. While the daily candlestick is suggesting downside momentum, the MACD and RPM are indicating some mitigation on the downside, at least for some reprieve. Overall, May does not look good for the NASDAQ NQ1! More down drafts expected. 12,600 expected to hold briefly, if at all. Next major support 11,730.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
3
NVIDIA (NVDA): Expressing the Crossroads We Are At As you can see this Pitchfork shows just how strong of a Bullish Trend the Technology Sector has been in for the last 20 years. Price finally reached a point of Peak. Now, this doesn't mean the top is in but rather shows just where we are in the cycle. Price isn't at life-changing levels anymore , at least based on the previous 20-year trend . In fact, the Price is still a great deal away from the 200MA . Hedge Funds and high-level investors are well aware of these levels. As we head into a slowly economy filled with many unprecedented macro challenges, growth will be limited . That's not to say there won't be light at the end of the tunnel, there certainly will be. The question is... Are we already on the other side or are we just beginning?
NASDAQ:NVDA
by NoOneWhoIsSomeone
1
NASDAQ in heavy downward momentumThe NASDAQ bounced off the first support and sliced through the second support level. Quite different from was expected, but in any case, this reveals a strong downward momentum towards the 13K support that must not be broken. To define this... should not close below 13K, but possible to have an intraday spike down to 12900 like previously. The thing here is that the Weekly candles are nice and long... so bearish momentum in the last three weeks have been strong. That said, what would this week bring? Btw... Noted that the weekly MACD had crossed down in bear territory. Not going to be pretty over the next couple of weeks!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ delivered as expected, and continues...Previously heads up , The short week filled in as expected with a continued breakdown below the weekly 55EMA. This is bearish confirmation (without doubt) that the technical bounce is done. On the weekly basis, a higher low or a return to 13K is in the cards for the weeks following. The daily charts show the weak rally and the week ended with an overwhelming outcome, in the form of a "bearish engulfing"; not quite so as it did not totally engulf from the open, nonetheless, you can obviously see the bearishness. The first support to bounce is not expected to hold, and perhaps the second support would hold better. Failing which, 13K is the support to look towards. Daily technicals are in bearish territory, so expect some downside after the Easter weekend. At this point, it is not (yet) looking extremely bearish. Not yet. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
NASDAQ... Oh BearThe NASDAQ is in somewhat of a freefall state having broke down very quickly over last week and one day this week. The breakdown came after warnings with upper tails in the weekly candle, as previously warned. And then the breakdown of the weekly 55EMA. The daily chart shows the clear indications as well as long decisive bearish candles clice through the supports. 13775 (red support line) is the immediate, albeit weak, support. 13520 (gray line) probably a better bounce support. Daily technicals (MACD and RPM) are bearish. It is only 12 April... not even 10 May.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Can Mega Cap Growth Make A Comeback?One of the most important, yet consistently underappreciated, aspects of technical analysis is the concept of relative strength. As a portfolio manager, one must be held accountable to some type of benchmark. And thus, if we want to outperform said benchmark, we most own things that are outperforming the benchmark! Participating in trends and capturing profitable trades is the goal that every trader and investor envisions when they enter a position. And of course, this is what indeed what we want in the end...profits. But those profits need to be greater than your benchmark, or else, what is the point? This is a concept that we at Adaptiv are constantly applying across any stock (or asset) when considering it for a position for clients. We are always looking to be involved in the strongest areas of the market. If we know that major indices, for all intents and purposes, are just the average return of a basket of stocks, then we also know that some stocks must be doing better than the average and some must be doing worse. It seems like common sense to participate in the stocks and trends that are indeed stronger than the average stock, or in our case, the benchmark. Sometimes the rotation between leading areas happens slowly as strength can stay within certain sectors and sub-industries for many months or even years. In other environments, the rotation can be quick and less-sticky, much like we saw in 2021. While we as market participants do not get to choose the pace of rotation, it is still a practice that must be constantly applied, in order to consistently create alpha. One area that is very important to the broad market is the Growth/Tech theme, and more specifically the largest capitalized stocks within that area. We know that these stocks have a very large influence on the market as a whole. When they are leading, the market usually finds itself in an easier uptrend, like we saw more recently in 2017, the first half of 2018, and 2020, following the 'Covid lows'. The relative relationship between these mega cap stocks and the S&P 500, as mentioned above, has been trendless for nearly two years. And over the last twelve-plus months, I think it's fair to say the 'average' stock has been quite a mess. And the lack of trending leadership from these important stocks certainly hasn't helped. But could a turn around be under way? We recently saw a failed breakdown (black line) in this relationship, following a well-anticipated bullish RSI divergence (not pictured). As any well-studied technician knows, the old adage "from failed moves come fast moves" can be a very important one. Given this new information, we should not be surprised if Mega Cap Growth stocks substantially outperforming in the coming weeks, What about the most important names within this area? What stocks could we look at for clues as to where the broader relationship could potentially go? I think Apple gives a great insight as to what other large Growth names could do on a relative basis over the short- to intermediate-term. And it just so happens that the relationship between Apple and the S&P 500 is currently sitting at a very important inflection point. Should this ratio break higher (above the purple line), I think it bodes well for Apple's peer group as well. Lastly, we know that a big chunk of the Mega Cap Growth arena consists of Tech stocks. Almost 40% to be exact. So, we would also want to look at this sector as well for any information that this theme, and thus stocks similar to Apple, are indeed moving into a period of outperformance. Similar to the first two relationships, this one has also been range bound for many, many months. However, broad Tech seems to have a little bit more short-term resistance than Mega Cap Growth. In order to increase the confidence of alpha generation from this area, I think technicians want to see this relationship rise above the blue line. If we can get all three of these relationship to confirm new relative uptrends in the coming weeks/months, I think that bodes very well not just for this subset of names, but the market as a whole. Ian McMillan, CMT Adaptiv Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:MGK
by CMT_Association
20