Technology
Broad Market Technology ETF TrendsVGT compared to 5 alternatives (QQQ / IGV / XLK / FTEC / IYW)
AMEX:VGT | NASDAQ:QQQ | AMEX:IGV | AMEX:XLK | AMEX:FTEC | AMEX:IYW
Expense Ratios
VGT 0.10%
QQQ 0.20%
IGV 0.46%
XLK 0.12%
FTEC 0.084%
IYW 0.43%
Holdings
After looking at the graphs, I am only considering VGT / QQQ / IGV
VGT:
Apple Inc 21.81%
Microsoft Corp 15.37%
Visa Inc Class A 3.31%
NVIDIA Corp 3.10%
Mastercard Inc A 3.06%
PayPal Holdings Inc 2.51%
Adobe Inc 2.30%
Intel Corp 2.04%
Salesforce.com Inc 1.95%
Cisco Systems Inc 1.82%
QQQ:
Apple Inc 12.25%
Microsoft Corp 9.13%
Nvidia Corp 2.67%
Adobe Inc 2.27%
Paypal Holdings Inc 1.98%
Intel Corp 1.69%
Cisco Systems Inc 1.56%
Broadcom Inc 1.46%
Qualcomm Inc. 1.42%
Texas Instruments Inc 1.25%
IGV:
Microsoft Corp 8.72%
Salesforce.com Inc 7.99%
Adobe Inc 7.83%
Oracle Corp 5.1%
ServiceNow Inc 4.79%
Intuit Inc 4.34%
Zoom Video Comm Inc 3.7%
Activision Blizzard Inc 3.35%
Autodesk Inc 2.83%
Snap Inc 2.42%
VWO - Emerging Market Macro Analysis The macro data from this month's Markit PMI's is sending a bit of mixing signals from the countries that VWO has the most exposure to, but I am still optimistic as to the near-future performance of the emerging markets.
Before going into the macro analysis, whats the market allocation of this ETF.
The 80% market allocation is the following:
- China -> 42.5%
- Taiwan -> 16.5%
- India -> 11%
- Brazil -> 5.9%
- South Africa -> 4.1%
After a quick look at the list above, we can see that China and Taiwan are almost 50% of the market allocation, so it is important to follow their situation closer.
China Macro Overview
China PMI's are sending mixed signals regarding the growth of Chianese economy, with a possible hint as to slow down in the next few months.
The manufacturing report is showing a slow down in growth in the production and new orders.
The new export orders are declining again below the 50 level, which indicates a possibility of contraction, there is also an indication of rising costs.
And that's likely to reflect in the results of Q2, or even in the Q3.
Taiwan Macro Overview
In comparison to Chinese PMI's, Taiwanese reports are much more optimistic, with strong growth in the last months.
January Manufacturing PMI is reporting growth in Output and New Orders, which are leading indicators in themselves.
Employment has increased substantially, which is a good indicator as to the health of the Taiwanese economy in the current situation.
In my opinion, the Taiwanese companies will lead the performance in the VWO for the next few months.
Indian Macro overview
India is another country reporting growth in January if we keep in mind the allocation size in this country in this ETF, it gives an optimistic outlook for its performance.
New Orders, Exports and Outputs are rising for another consecutive month. The employment situation is still contracting but at lower levels than before. That may be an indication of possible employment growth soon.
The overall outlook for the Indian economy is positive and in conjunction with positive data from Taiwan, that's good news for the emerging markets.
Additional Macro overview
Brazil, South Africa are other countries in the top 5 of the allocations for this ETF. Their allocation size is reasonably smaller than the countries above so I won't go into much detail.
Brazil situation is not very bright, as to the information provided by PMI reports, even that manufacturing showed slight improvements, the services are contracting again.
The situation in South Africa seems to expand but at a slow pace, there are still many concerns as the effects of the pandemic on the overall economy.
Final Opinion.
As we can see from the macro overview of the countries, which are the key components of the market allocation of this ETF, the outlook is mostly positive.
Some may be concerned by the mixed data from the Chinese PMIs since China is the biggest player in this ETF, it may affect the performance. However, there is a positive outlook for Taiwan and India.
I believe they will compensate for the possible slow down in China, and it'll drive the EM performance for the next few months.
Sources:
- Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI
- Caixin China General Services PMI
- IHS Markit Taiwan Manufacturing PMI
- IHS Markit India Manufacturing PMI
- IHS Markit India Services PMI
- IHS Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI
- IHS Markit Brazil Services PMI
- IHS Markit South Africa PMI
Bullish momentum for HAYDThe 1D chart for HAYD is looking really good today. We have multiple bullish signals.
- Today the price could break above the upper channel bound
- RSI indicator for 250 periods is showing >50% indicates the start of bullish momentum
- The volume indicators in the past few days were trending up
- Trading above the 55 EMA
There's a high chance that the channel could be broken if this is the case and the new support rejects the price we could be on the way to a bullish trend.
In the case the channel doesn't break and rejects we believe it will find support in the 55 EMA.
On the latest Fundamentals:
- Haydale has recently launched it's new SynerG graphene mask and is starting to fill orders for both retail and B2B customers.
BUY indicators for MTRXMACD and Stoch in buying levels.
News about new projects in the UK Online Electronic Retailers, just came up on Feb 4th 2021.
This company is applying AI to marketing and e-commerce. I see a lot of potential, so I'm long #loopinsights
TSXV:MTRX
NOC bounce in progressThe Setup
Northrop Grumman has made a support trend line since 2013, and it now looks to be bouncing from that line after approaching it Friday. NOC also has support at 287 from recent lows. More importantly, NOC has a positive news catalyst after announcing a $2 billion buyback program this morning.
Value
NOC is a pretty compelling value. I estimate forward P/E at 11 and forward P/S at 1.25, pretty good for a company with earnings growth. Sales are growing about 3% per year and earnings about 4% per year. NOC also offers a dividend yield over 2% and growing at a rate of 3% per year. It has 3 patens per billion dollars of market cap, which isn't an extraordinary amount of patents, but it's enough to show that the company is innovating. Perhaps most compelling metric is that NOC has about 41% upside to its median valuation of the past 4 years.
Sentiment
Sentiment on NOC is mixed, with an average 72.25/100 score from S&P Global, but only a middling analyst summary score and ESG rating. Recent earnings revisions have been mixed, and TradingView's technical analysis shows "Strong Sell" on the daily and "Sell" on the weekly. Options interest has been positive, with both open interest and 30-day average volume in bullish territory. The most impressive sentiment metric is the average analyst price target, some 35% above the current price. Although sentiment isn't yet clearly bullish, I believe that it will soon shift in a bullish direction in response to news of the buyback program. My plan is to front-run the change in sentiment, though another possible strategy is to enter on a bullish breakout above the recent resistance trend line.
Price Target
I think a reasonable near-term price target is $340/share.
Semiconductor sector (SOXX) seem ready to turn its trendSemiconductor sector seems ready for a trend change. Since the March low, the sector has ran up more than triple digit percentage. As much as the sector is damaged less than retail and hospitality, it is very cyclical sector and it does get affected by business cycle. Semi is the canary in a coal mine of the tech sector (XLK), so when this turns, it will be a headwind for the entire tech sector as a whole. When the tech breaks, the market breaks for its heavy weight on the indexes.
Recently broke the minor yellow up trend line and reversing right at the long term trend line since last spring.
Initial target is the bottom of the trading range. $404ish depending on when it hits it.
2nd target is the horizontal support right below the channel. $384.46
As how bullish the overall sentiment is in the market recently, once it turns, it will be pretty quick move downward. Potential long term targets are listed but SOXX will not going to fall double digit without if XLK and indexes are resilient.
Only the time will tell but it will be prudent and be cautious. Scaling down on aggressiveness won't be a bad idea and have some hedges.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
Longing on ASX:BET - uptick started todayThe ASX market appears to be heating up.
Following on my other thesis on ASX marketing such as ASX:APT , ASX:CCP and ASX:Z1P , the other pick which I expect to see a lot of actions is ASX:BET .
There are a few catalysts for BET during the few weeks:
1. It has just completed a round of SSP with over subscription hotcopper.com.au
2. Its price action has started an upward trend ever since the Dec 2nd with large transaction vol on that day, and showing consolidation ever since.
3. Contrast with the Gaming/Online Sport books in the US market, most of which has gone up 30-50% since Dec, the deregulation of online sport betting in the US market should benefit BET as well.
4. The upward candle of Jan 21st apparently is testing its all time high at 0.795.
I am expecting BET to hit the 0.995 range before its earning release on Mar 2nd.
Full disclosure, I put my $$ behind my thesis and just built a position @ 0.77 with a 10% stop loss @ 0.7.
GROW.V Breakout New 52 Week HighsIncreasing volume and price action past few weeks. Ascending triangle breakout confirmed today with rise above weekly ichimoku cloud. Low float micro cap stock. Disruptive agriculture tech increasing plant growth, new signed contracts and sales behind the run up. Previously ran to 0.70 in April 2019 with a lot less company traction and progress.
Price target 0.30-0.35 from ascending triangle break, stop loss 0.20 at previous resistance.
I am long GROW, recently doubled my shares at 0.15.
Providing this Israeli Innovation Fund a ZenMode $35 TargetThe Bank of Israel carried out a series of quantitative easing measures for the first time since the global financial crisis, buying government bonds of various types and maturities in the open market. As such, Israel stocks showed strength as economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak was less than initially feared.
Holds 39 stocks in its basket with AUM of $24.7 million. Contains an average trading volume of 8,000 shares.
Sector Breakdown:
Cyclical 2.9%
Defensive 30.3%
Communications 13.3%
Industrials 5.17%
Technology 48.2%
Top Holdings:
Ituran Location and Control Ltd
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd
Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd
The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that are included in the fund's benchmark index, depositary receipts representing securities included in the index or underlying stocks in respect of depositary receipts included in the index.
CFRA rated it a 1/5 on 12/31
Managed by Catherine Wood and running a 0.48% management fee.
Technology and CryptocurrencyThis is the technology index, against bitcoin.
Technology and Cryptocurrency are more than correlated. Cryptocurrency has been birthed from technology.
Technology and Cryptocurrency have a genetic relationship as you cannot have cryptocurrency - without technology.
The price is reflective of that relationship.
Enjoy.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Going to the Moon?Imagine recreational space flights available to the community....yea you heard that right!
Imagine over 400 flights throughout the year serviced to people that looks like you and me!
.....Exactly why I'm going all in on this company!
I do believe aliens are real and I feel that there is always more to be desired within the human race and I only see a bullish future for this space company especially considering this is a first within the intergalactic community with hopes of giving a recreational experience to interested minds. Space exploration is key and I feel like this company will thrive in space travel for the average consumer. This company will help the society tenfold simply off the ability to conveniently launch trips for leisure as well as research. I see a very bright future for this company!
I bought 2 shares @ $23. Price is at $27.56 now and in my opinion...it will continue to thrive upwards. Seems as if price is currently breaking through a resistance zone between $21-$27 and should turn the current resistance into a new support. Based off of the stochastic RSI, it looks like there has been a dip on the daily time frame. I have price at least retracing 50-61.80% of the previous high which mean that price should at least test or surpass the range of $29-$30. I truly feel like this stock will continue to rise. I do feel that price will break through Feb '20 high of $40...Let's see what happens.
I'm no expert. Simply an amateur trader!
Let me know what you think!
Seagate Technologies bullish trend line breakSeagate Technologies has been in a correction since mid-December, but today it made a bullish break across a trend line that has held for about 4 weeks. Seagate is one of the better values in the technology space, with a dividend payout of over 4.5% and about 11% upside to its median earnings-day valuation of the last 3 years. It's a highly innovative company, averaging 26 patents per year per billion in market cap.
Sentiment for Seagate has been somewhat negative, with analysts and technicals neutral and options interest mostly on the put side. However, today's trend line break signals that sentiment is beginning to improve. We may see one or two more dips before the stock moves decisively higher, but I do think an upward move will be coming in the next few weeks.
XLK New Butterfly Spread Setup , Wave (5) Bullish XLK corrective (A), (B), (C) almost complete with a potential rebound into completing terminal wave (5). The hourly chart shows XLK has to stay above of 125 wave coin invalidation for this bullish wave count to remain valid. Exact trade execution details in video update.