NVDIA Is this -35% correction enough to be a buy opportunity?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) completed a -35% decline from its top on Monday's Low and after a short rebound, it's consolidating. Even though this is the strongest correction it had since the late 2022 market bottom and it almost touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in October 2022, there might be room for some more downside before the next long-term Bullish Leg.
It is important also to note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is still intact as the 20-month Support and the 1D RSI broke the 35.00 level (almost oversold) on Monday. All the above suggest that NVDIA hit a new long-term buy level/ Support.
The Bullish Divergence though on its 1D RSI (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) may indicate the opposite than it normally does. The reason is purely on NVDIA's last such pattern, which basically led to the October 13 2022 bottom.
As you can see, that correction continued the price's Lower Lows despite the ongoing RSI Higher Lows, until it completed a -44% correction. That suggest that there might be room for another -9% decline before the stock breaks above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and starts the new Bullish Leg for good. Of course if it breaks above it earlier, then this pattern projection is invalidated.
As a result, it is recommended to buy the current bottom so that we won't miss on a potential upside by breaking above the 1D MA50 earlier but at the same time reserve some cash for the possibility of a -44% decline around the $80.00 level. In both cases, we will set a $190.00 Target (horizon before end 2024), which is a 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the current bottom.
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Technology
QQQ back in long term channel. What's next?After spending about a month above the long term blue channel since 2009 (excludes COVID bubble), QQQ is back inside the blue channel. You can see the gap up on June 12th and gap back down on July 24th. The black channel goes all the back to 2008 and the bottom of the market and includes the COVID bubble. The black mid-channel is currently acting as support. The AI rally starting in Jan 2023 has been confined to the purple channel. I see a couple of options for the next week or two. First, we could see a rally to test resistance of the purple channel. It is possible that we jump back above and the AI rally continues, but that fells unlikely. Second, it seems to me a bigger correction could be in store to break the purple channel support down to the red trend line. The core batch of tech earnings is up the next week or so, and that is going to have a lot to do with the direction.
Weekly
APPLE Dont get fooled by the short-term pull-back. $280 on trackExactly 3 months ago (May 02, see chart below), we called for a strong buy signal on Apple (AAPL) and it dully delivered as 2 days ago the stock completed three straight green months with a new All Time High (ATH):
The recent weekly pull-back shouldn't allow you to diverge from the bigger picture and on this analysis we look at it from a 1M time-frame perspective. As you can see, as long as the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, Apple will continue to be on a 15-year uptrend, which shows very distinct Phases.
Right now we are on the Channel Up that followed the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a similar correction to 2015 - 2016 (China's slowdown). The Channel Up that followed peaked at +161% before the next correction towards the 1M MA50. Even the 2013 - 2014 rise was still +145%.
As a result, we don't believe the current Channel Up to be over either, expecting a peak closer to 300. Our Target is marginally below it at $280.00.
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QQQ --- AI Tech Bubble Keeps GrowingRight now, not much seems to be stopping the bubble in Tech. You can see we broke above resistance on June 11th and have not looked back. I was expecting some form of test of support, like back in July 2020, but instead any pullback has been bought up. Volume is low and that means that everyone is long to go along for the ride. If we get a run up like back in August 2020, we could top out at the $550 range.
We are in the region of extra hard to predict what will happen next. Without a clear reason to sell, this can keep going. I would expect to see some form of profit taking that could make for a bigger pullback, but so far nothing. I think the saying "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" comes to mind.
I am curious if we are in for a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" when it comes to interest rate cuts. Maybe this will keep going up until we actually get a rate cut.
1D
SMCI You won't be able to catch this rally after it starts.Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has so far followed to near perfection our last long-term analysis (May 13, see chart below) where we called for a prolonged accumulation (red Rectangle) of at least another 2-months before the real cyclical rally started:
We called then that 'patience will be rewarded' and the stock is finally close to rewarding your patience on the long-term. As you can see, every time in the past 18 months that the stock formed an Accumulation Phase this long, it then posted an incredible rally of +417%.
Throughout this process, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) always remained intact and supported. The rally started when the 1D MA200 got to its closest with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the exact situation we're at right now.
As a result, we expect the parabolic rally to start any day now and as the title says, once it starts it will be difficult to catch. Typically entries within the Accumulation Phase should be done while it lasts. Our long-term Target is intact at $3500 (exactly +417% from the recent Low).
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NICE Ltd: Seeking Value While Riding The AI WaveKey Rationale:
Profitable technology firm with a track record of commercializing AI. World leader in two industries primed for significant growth, with a comprehensive suite of products and a treasure trove of historical data for AI training. Solid Growth profile and five-star valuation make it an ideal GARP investment.
Company Profile:
A tech powerhouse that’s quietly revolutionizing customer engagement and financial crime solutions. NICE Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud platforms for AI-driven digital business solutions worldwide. Nice is an enterprise software company that serves the customer engagement and financial crime and compliance markets. The company provides data analytics-based solutions through both a cloud platform and on-premises infrastructure. Within customer engagement, Nice's CXone platform delivers solutions focused on contact center software and workforce engagement management, or WEM. Contact center offerings include solutions for digital self-service, customer journey and experience optimization, and compliance. WEM products optimize call center efficiency, leveraging data and AI analytics for call volume forecasting and agent scheduling. Within financial crime and compliance, Nice offers risk and investigation management, fraud prevention, anti-money laundering, and compliance solutions. NICE Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Ra'anana, Israel.
Comments:
One of the best available Ex-U.S. stocks.
Narrow Moat, Exemplary Capital Allocation.
NICE’s long-term vision aligns with the AI revolution.
Recently beat on top-line and bottom-line estimates.
Recently announced a New $500 Million Share Buyback Plan.
5-Star Valuation on Morningstar, NICE is trading at a 36% discount.
Incessant selling is unwarranted and partially due to a CEO transition.
Multiple industry analysts rank NICE as a major player with the best technology.
Cloud Company with actual Profitable Growth, making NICE an intelligent investment in AI.
Publicly traded since 1996, NICE is not some hot new flash-in-the-pan AI IPO, it's got staying power.
CXone Mpower is the Ultimate CX-Aware AI Offering, Providing Continuous, Memory-Driven Human and AI Collaboration.
They are developing a moat around their AI offering due to the sheer scale of the number of transactions they perform each month.
Nice has strong user retention metrics, and cloud growth means greater recurring revenue.
Cincinnati Emergency Communication Center Leverages NICE to Improve Operations.
Italy’s Police Deploy NICE Inform at All Control Rooms Nationwide for Incident Intelligence.
Named the Leader In 2024 IDC MarketScape for Contact Center as a Service Report.
Named the Conversational Intelligence Market Leader in 2024 Opus Research Intelliview Report.
Recognized as Category Leader in the Chartis 2024 CLM Solutions for Corporate and Investment Banking Vendor Landscape Report
Proprietary Scores:
GreenBlue Cumulative Rank: 196/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenBlue Current Rank: 509/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenRed Current Rank: 348/499 (Lower = Better)
Gurufocus Score: 95/100 (Higher = Better)
Stellar Profitability, Growth, and Quality scores for a foreign company in GreenBlue (138, 488, and 233 out of 2982)
Competitors:
CRM, INTU, NOW, CDNS, SHOP, ROP, ADSK, DOCU, GWRE, TWLO, FIVN, RNG
Risks:
Foreign companies have embedded geopolitical risk.
Larger AI competitors eat their lunch. Microsoft's push into the contact center will increase competition.
Nice is undergoing a cloud transition, and the timing of legacy customer migration and degree of success on this front remains to be seen.
Prior personal investments in software application companies have been very risky. Failed investments include FIVN, RNG, and TWLO.
TESLA Buy the dip, correction nearly over. $285 next short-term.Tesla (TSLA) is bleeding hard today but that shouldn't if you got on that rally early like our June 13 (see chart below) buy signal suggested while the price was still trading in the low 180s:
Our long-term Target remains $400.00 and today's sharp correction is nothing but a strong technical buy opportunity. In fact, this pull-back is not stranger to Tesla. The stock has seen a similar rejection near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension during its May - July 2023 rally on the June 21 2023 High.
As you can see, the price declined by -13.00% back to the 1.382 Fibonacci level. At the time of the (temporary High), the 1D RSI was at 89.00, roughly where it got rejected today. The price recovered when the RSI was at 57.00.
As a result, from a R/R perspective, it is worth taking another buy on the current market price and target the 2.236 Fib extension (similar to the JUly 19 2023 High) at $285.00.
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AMD a great stock to have in your portfolio to the end of yearLast time we looked at the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), we made a short-term call (June 20, see chart below) at the bottom of the Bull Flag, with the price responding flawlessly, and is currently on its way for a Higher High on our $190.0 Target:
Before that, it was on May 15 (see chart below) where we called for a buy exactly at the bottom of the cyclical correction/ Bearish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up:
Just a quick reminder, it was back in March when we waved the strongest 1W sell signal on AMD and it surgically delivered (chart below):
In any event, back to today, the price has just broken above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and established the last two trading sessions there. With the 1D RSI approaching the 70.00 overboughr barrier, we are on the exact same level that AMD was during both previous Bullish Legs (circle).
This suggests that we are only at the very start of the new Bullish Leg and based on the Sine Waves, it should start peaking end of December - start of January 2025. We are moving our long-term Target higher to $320.00.
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As you see, we couldn't have gotten a more efficient long-term buy entry than that and the stock has basically confirmed the start of the new uptrend/ Bullish Leg
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ROCKET LAB 1st 1D Golden Cross in 1 year!Rocket Lab (RKLB) is up heavily following our last buy call (May 29, see chart below) and is approaching our $5.50 short-term Target:
Since however the Lower Highs trend-line is now a bit lower and the medium-term pattern since April's bottom emerged as a Channel Up (dotted), we lower this short-term Target to $5.35.
The key development of the week though is none other than the formation (today) of the 1st Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 1 year (since June 20th 2023). As a result, we don't expect the rally to stop there but instead to accelerate tiwards the 2-year Higher Highs trend-line. This is a seasonal rally that RKLB has done in the past two years during July-August. Our long-term Target is 8.75.
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AI Bubble grows above resistance for QQQThe gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with it now that price is above the channel. I will also be watching for a pullback to test for support in the near future. If that can hold, the AI bubble may get really pumped. We can never know what will spook the market, but right now it feels like the sky is the limit.
Today
July 6, 2020
GAMESTOP Can it repeat the crazy run of 2020/21?GameStop Corporation (GME) has been consolidating during the past 2 weeks and lately have found support exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Early in May it gave the first signs of breaking above its recent 3-year Bear Cycle. The rise was almost as strong (+520%) as the one that made a temporary high on October 22 2020.
Both formed a 1D Golden Cross. The main support of 2020/2021 was the 1D MA50, so technically as long as it holds (even a marginal break would be ok), the probabilities for a new High remain alive.
Practically the sequence that led to the recent bottom is quite similar to 2019/20. If history keeps repeating itself then we could be looking at a +18630% from the bottom, which price-wise is translated to $1800.
The times are of course different and GME's whole move was based on the 'meme' retail investors crusade against the big hedge funds that were shorting the price. Also those were post-pandemic times with very low interest rates and cheap money that could easily be diverted to extremely risky assets such as GME. Volumes were more easy to be achieved.
Do you think history will be repeated?
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NVDIA Not the time to buy yet.NVDIA corporation (NVDA) is on the 3rd straight week of losses following the mid-June High, which was a Higher High at the top of the 20-month Channel Up. During that time the stock turns into a Buy only after it breaks below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As you can see some times the bottom process takes longer, other times it is very short. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been broken since mid-January 2023. At the moment, the stock has started the new Bearish Leg. Past such Legs extended to at least -22.56% and with a maximum -26.18%.
We are ready to buy at $110.00 and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $170.00 (each Higher High is on a Fibonacci extension lower).
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ELI LILLY Entering consolidation phase. Wait for the buy signal.Last time we looked at Eli Lilly (LLY) was on March 18 (see chart below) and we got the most out of it as we entered after a 1D MA50 correction and got the most optimal value:
Our original target was $1050 calculated according to the % rise of each previous Bullish Leg (+45%) of the +1 year Channel Up but now it appears that the stock won't hit that level during this Leg as we are entering the bottom phase of the Sine Wave.
As you can see on the chart (now on the 1W time-frame), this is where LLY typically pulls-back and consolidates (red Rectangle) until the next Bullish Leg begins near the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
As a result, we are closing our bottom buy position and turn neutral on LLY until we approach the 1D MA100 again, starting mid-August.
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MICROSOFT $450 Target hit. Potential consolidation ahead.Microsoft (MSFT) easily hit our $450.00 medium-term Target that we called on our last signal (May 01, see chart below):
That call came on the most optimal buy entry, with the price right at the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. The symmetry between the pattern's Legs is very high and based on the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up), we should now get a medium-term consolidation to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resume the uptrend.
The Higher High was priced just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, our next Target is $480.
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MICROSTRATEGY Bottom on Inverse Head and Shoulders. Eyeing $2000MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) is about to complete the Right Shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a bottom formation technically. The Head was formed on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), a long-term Support for the stock, while the price is now testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance.
We saw this exact same behaviour on MSTR's previous bottom (May 01) and right when it broke above the 4H MA50, it peaked marginally above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we expect a similar development and our Target is $2000.
Notice also that right when the price was testing the 4H MA50 last time, the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, which is what it is currently doing. Strong similarities everywhere.
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TESLA It has begun...Tesla (TSLA) is on almost a +5.00% rise today an aggressive reaction to the market news and technically extending an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as we mentioned on our previous analysis (see chart below):
It is a good time to shift to the longer term time-frame of 1W, where this IH&S pattern is a bottom formation that Tesla has registered before all of its major long-term rallies. The one that looks from cyclical start to finish with today's pattern is the period of 2014 - 2016.
Once the price broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) on that pattern, Tesla started a rally that peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. Observe similar the 1W RSI patterns are as well between the two Cycles.
If the stock repeats that Fibonacci target, we can get a price as high as $700.00. That is of course a very optimistic scenario but even the more pessimistic one, has a (dotted) Channel Up targeting its top on the 3.5 Time Fib at around $400, which is almost the All Time High (ATH) for Tesla.
As a result, we see $400 as a real posibility for the end of the year.
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SMCI Excellent short-term buy opportunity.Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the April 22 Low, with every Bullish Leg registering at least a +35.80% rise. The price is now just below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the final technical confirmation that's needed is for the 4H MACD to form a Bullish Cross.
As a result, this is an excellent short-term buy opportunity. Or Target is $1050 (just below the +35.80% mark).
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BITDEER deserves to be re-rated HIGHERBased on fundamentals and technicals of course!
This company I expect to comfortably trade as a double digit company by years end
And during the #Bitcoin bull top even has the potential to tag this log projection
we can see an Inverse head and shoulders clearly being formed.
Yet to trigger, but it has some impressive projections.
Will Bitdeer outperform it's more well known rival #Mining competitors?
AMD broke above the 3-week Bull Flag. Major buy signal!On March 13 (see chart below) we issued a major sell signal on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as we saw the stock topping at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 2-year Channel Up:
Our projection was materialized as the price corrected significantly by -37% and has almost reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the level that held, formed the latest Higher Low of the Channel Up and made us give a new long-term buy signal a month ago (while also the 1W RSI reached the symmetrical Support level of the October 2023 bottom (45.50)).
Today the buy sentiment got stronger than ever as AMD not only broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but also above the giant Bull Flag pattern that started on the May 28 High. With the 1D MACD about to form a Bullish Cross, a very strong long-term buy signal emerges that call for a new Bullish Leg similar to at least the May 02 - 28 one.
If the prevailing structure is a Channel Up then expect a +23.65% rise, which puts our Target at $190.00 (just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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APPLE formed 1st 1D Golden Cross in 15 months! Attention needed.It wasn't long ago when we called for a buy on Apple's (AAPL) absolute technical bottom (April 25 and May 02, see charts below respectively):
Needless to say that the 198.00 Target has been smashed. As the price reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 20-month (blue) Channel Up, the stock turned sideways and has been consolidating for the past 4 sessions.
This is a strong indication of a medium-term Top. If rejected, we expect a Channel Down correction to at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where we will again buy for the long-term. If broken though, we will buy the first 1D candle close above the (blue) Channel Up and target $250.00.
The reason for this bullish expectation is that Apple just formed the first 1D Golden Cross in 15 months (since March 22 2023). Last time it did, the price had already initiated the new Bullish Leg (in the form of a blue dotted Channel Up). It only started the medium-term correction of July 2023, when it closed a full candle below the 4H MA50 (thin red trend-line).
At the same time, the 1W RSI had to hit the 79.00 overbought level. As a result, if you do turn bullish upon a 1D candle breaking above the (blue) Channel Up, consider booking the profit earlier if 4H MA50 breaks or the 1W RSI gets rejected on its 79.00 Resistance (unless your portfolio can support the correction).
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BROADCOM Short-term pull-back in order?Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) easily hit the 1800 Target that we set on last month's analysis (May 22, see chart below) and made a new Higher High at the top of the 20-month Channel Up:
The symmetrical leg at the end of 2023, got rejected right below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension back to the 2.0 Fib. Even the 1D RSI is on the same levels as December 18 2023. As a result, we are turning bearish short-term on AVGO, targeting 1670.
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