(NASDAQ) CPI & Fed Rate: Key Drivers for Market Volatility TodayTechnical Analysis Nasdaq
The price reached the target we mentioned yesterday and has now achieved 19,250.
Today's Outlook:
Today, the market is expected to be volatile due to the CPI release and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. A CPI reading below 3.4% is likely to support an uptrend, while a reading above 3.4% could negatively impact the indices.
Bullish Scenario:
If the CPI is below 3.4%, as long as the price trades above 19,100 and 19,220, the bullish trend is expected to continue towards 19,450. It is possible that the price may retest 19,100 before resuming the bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario:
If the CPI is above 3.4%, stabilization below 19,100 would indicate a move towards 18,940. A further break below 18,940, confirmed by a 1-hour candle close, would signal a downtrend towards 18,810.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 19,200
- Resistance Levels: 19450, 19570, 19720
- Support Levels: 19100, 18940, 18810
Today's Expected Range:
The price is expected to move between the support at 18,940 and the resistance at 19,570.
Our Previous Prediction:
Technology
QQQ still confined to the trading channel since 2010The blue trading channel has been a very reliable resistance since 2010. You can see the many times that it has confined price action, only being broken during the COVID bubble. My guess is that it will continue to be resistance. We will likely see a repeat of the action from 2015 and 2018 where price will slowly work sideways but ever so slightly higher with numerous pullbacks until we see a large pullback to the support side of the channel.
Here is what the action looks like on the 1D. You can really see the price trying to break out, but as we saw back in April, it ultimately lost and we had a nice pullback to buy into.
NVDA Targets ExplainedLets be honest, NVDA rules the AI, Tech, and computing world. There is no reason to bet against it.
This analysis will be simple. After another bullish push to the upside, there is a buying imbalance above the volume profile. The best price action would be for it to retrace (pull-back) to $1,160, to backtest the Value Area High and sweep the liquidity below the local lows before moving higher. The next biggest area it can retrace to before moving higher would be $1,140.00, the Point of control which is the area the most volume is traded based on the FRVP pull.
Lets see how this plays out.
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LTTS: Beautiful Breakout But ...The chart should give you everything you need to know. But here are some pointers for those who like to read:
- A beautiful Symmetric Triangle breakout. The support and resistance trendlines were religiously followed. Thus, making the pattern stronger.
- The consolidation period was a good 15 months. Every IT company has gone through the pain.
- We have defined support and resistance zones. The triangle breakout is good but is exactly near the Crucial resistance zone.
- A break and sustenance of it will be crucial for the future upmove.
- We have a 5000 psychological level sitting on the top as our first target
- Nifty IT is also gearing up for some long-due momentum. This should give a push.
What should we analyze next??
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
While you do that, how about a boost for some motivation🚀
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Exxon continues the Energy forever bull marketExxonMobil Corporation (/ˌɛksɒnˈmoʊbəl/ EKS-on-MOH-bəl; commonly shortened to Exxon ) is an American multinational oil and gas corporation and the largest direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil. The company, which took its present name in 1999 per the merger of Exxon and Mobil, is vertically integrated across the entire oil and gas industry, and within it is also a chemicals division which produces plastic, synthetic rubber, and other chemical products. ExxonMobil is headquartered near the Houston suburb of Spring, Texas, though officially incorporated in the U.S. state of New Jersey. : 1 It is the largest United States-based oil and gas producing company. ExxonMobil is also the eighth largest company in the world by revenue and the third largest in the US.
COINBASE Can catapult above $300 any time.Coinbase Global (COIN) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern since the October 27 2023 bottom. Its long-term Support level is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which was most recently tested on May 14 2024 and held.
Just like the February 07 (near) test, this is technically the latest Higher Low of the Channel Up. The break-out above the Falling Wedge that followed, similar to the February bottom, has found Support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which held even during Friday's dramatic pull-back.
With the Sine Waves accurately depicting COIN's all recent bottoms (Higher Lows) and tops (Higher Highs), they clearly show that we are past the latest bottom and have already started the new Bullish Leg to a Higher High.
The previous one was priced just above the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we remain bullish on this stock, setting a new price Target at $380.00 (Fib 1.786), which can be achieved by mid-July.
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Semiconductor Bull Run: Is it OVER?AMD is experiencing a breakout from the falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish signal. Currently, the stock is above its immediate support zone and ended the last trading session with a bullish harami candle.
Although sell pressure seems unlikely given the current levels, keep an eye on the medium-term support zone to reassess your trading strategy if needed.
These levels are suitable for options trading and could result in excellent swing trades based on liquidity analysis.
The price target is between $185 and $190, with the potential to reach $200 if the bullish momentum continues.
Let's monitor how this develops.
BROADCOM accumulating. Last opportunity to buy on this pull-backBroadcom Inc. (AVGO) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 13 2022 market bottom. The stock is now within the new Accumulation Phase that is being supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
Based on the previous Accumulation Phase, we should get one (or two max) more pull-back towards the 1D MA100, before the price breaks upwards aggressively towards the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line).
Last time the ultimate buy signal was when the 1D RSI made a Double Bottom. Our Target is $1800, which will be on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, similar to the December 15 2023 High.
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Kainos Group plc $LSE:KNOS Profits UP +14% to £77.2mLSE:KNOS Kainos Group plc is back in favour as adj pre-tax Profits UP +14% to £77.2m and reaching 14 Years of Consecutive Growth with Revenue hitting £382.4m!
With the Workday Segment of the business growing to over £60m ARR and Cash topping +16% to £126m with NO Debt this is a business that has great long term growth as leading consultants in Workday Products and in the Generative AI space having invested more than £10m into training their 3,000 staff in this area. The COVID contracts have ended in their healthcare segment thus returning to more organic growth figures and the share price since 2021 reflected this.
META New rally to $800 started.Meta Platforms (META) is consolidating within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) only 3 weeks after it touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up.
This is the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, half-way through the accumulation process. Once the 1D RSI breaks above its Lower Highs trend-line, we will have a bullish confirmation signal similar to October 06 2023. Our Target is $800.00, which represents a +95% rise, similar to both previous Bullish Legs of the Channel Up.
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AMD correction is over. Buy for the long-term.Back on March 13 (see chart below) we gave a bold (for the majority of the market) sell signal on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as we saw the stock topping at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 2-year Channel Up:
Our signal was delivered and the price corrected significantly by -37% and has almost reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the level that held and made the last bottom and Higher Low for the Channel Up on the week of October 23 2023.
As the 1W RSI also reached the symmetrical Support level of the October 2023 bottom (45.50), we believe that the market has already started the bottom process and any week now will start the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
Technically the previous 2 rose by +144% but we will settle our own long-term Target a little lower at $300.00, so that it makes a standard Higher High on the Channel Up.
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SMCI accumulation phase. Patience will be rewarded.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) gave us an excellent sell opportunity two months ago (March 08, see chart below) that allowed us to short on time and target perfectly the 1D MA100 (red trend-line on the chart below, green trend-line on the one above):
The 1D MA100 has so far held twice successfully but even if it breaks, don't be alarmed as this will most likely be part of the standard multi-month Accumulation Phase when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, which when completed sends SMCI as high as +417.86% from the bottom (that was the % rise during the last two mega rallies).
As a result, the time to buy this stock is now. Hold and you will be rewarded. It can potentially reach as high as $3500, even though $1500 certainly is good enough and more plausible on the medium-term.
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C3.AI bottomed and is going for the 1D MA50 test.C3.ai (AI) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since the August 01 2023 High and just 3 weeks ago made the 2nd Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern. If it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we will have a confirmed bullish continuation for the new Bullish Leg, similar to the November 02 2023 break-out.
Until then, we expect one last short-term dip for a better buy entry, with which we will target 29.00 (just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level). On the medium-term, we expect a new Lower High to be made, at least on the 0.618 Fib.
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NVDIA Next pull-back will be the one to buy.NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been going exactly as planned since our latest update (February 16, see chart below) and looks very promising to hit the 1150 Target:
On the shorter term, the 1D time-frame, we see one last buy opportunity arising for those who missed our earlier buy call. Based on the (-21.66%) symmetry of the current correction with that of August - October 2023, we expect NVDIA to make another pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which should be its last before the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up pattern begins.
See how similar even the 1D RSI fractals are. Our Target remains $1150.
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QQQ pull back done or another leg down?QQQ had a bad week last week after trying since February to break long term resistance of the Blue trading channel. There was a lot of momentum but ultimately after being squeezed between resistance of the blue channel and support from black channel midline, it was time to take profit for the big guys. Clearly, inflation readings and uncertainty about interest rate cuts were the main factors.
A hard sell off last week to establish a clear down channel with the biggest selling on Friday. Using the channel from August to November last year and with some minor tweaks, you can see that it ended Friday right on the support line.
Another thing I was looking at were several of the most recent pullbacks over the last few years. You can see them overlayed on the peak of March 21st. Going by them, QQQ has already come close to extent of the smaller pullbacks.
In my limited experience, these two indicators are usually a good sign for a rebound this week. The RSI is also in the oversold range and in line with other bottoms. The rebound could just be a short-term rally in the down channel like back in Aug and Sept last year with another leg down in the coming month or so. Or we could see a new attempt to break out of the blue channel.
Either way, I was brave enough to open a few positions Friday before the close. Hopefully I don't regret that.
Insights into Market Analysis: SPDR XLK Sector trend analysisThe upward trend of XLK experienced a halt in mid-April, marked by a price breakout below the swing low at $197.3. By retracing the price action from January 2022 to October 13, 2022, a potential pattern emerges, suggesting the formation of a 'Head & Shoulders' reversal pattern.
XLK had been on an upward trajectory from October 2022 until April 2024, largely driven by the robust performance of the tech sector. However, with the application of sector rotation principles, it appears that XLK is exhibiting signs of technical weakness. Currently, other sectors such as XLE and XLU are demonstrating stronger performance compared to the overall market.
AMAZON Under the 1D MA50 after 6 months. Is the bleeding over?Amazon (AMZN) has broken and closed below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since October 27 2023). Last time this happened, the stock had already begun the 2nd Bearish Leg (-18.83% decline) of the 2-year Channel Up.
As a result, there's a real possibility for the stock to reach as low as the 0.382 Fiboancci retracement level and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form a new Higher Low near the bottom of the Channel Up and then rebound.
As long as the Channel Down of the Bearish Leg is intact and Amazon doesn't close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will wait for a more comfortable buy at $160.00 and we will target $200.00 (+31.87% symmetrical rise as Dec 20 2023).
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NVDA SHORT TO 620 BECAUSE BEARS PARTY WITH GOOD GPU'SHere's a neat little POTENTIAL setup.
I added a projection line.
I probably shouldn't have added a projection line.
It will probably make me look stupid in a few months to a year.
Or maybe even right now.
Depends if you like my charts or not.
Or have just recently followed.
This chart is a little more longer term.
Do I think NVDA crashes some 32% to $620 overnight?
No. Sorry, but even bears gotta be realistic.
There will be stops along the way.
There are some levels of support heading down.
But ultimately.
There are a lot of rejection areas stacked in a small window of time.
Weekly RSI is crossed down.
Daily RSI still technically bullish.
That can change quickly.
Monthly RSI still technically bullish.
But also, pretty much maxed out.
4 hour is on the chart 55.41 to 55.17, still technically Bullish until crossing.
Price targets are marked, which include but are limited to only 4 (I normally include a lot more but I want to keep this chart clean), as the patterns and major trends are well defined.
You'll see.
RED HORIZONTAL rejection line at 1200.
PINK TREND LINES, ALL currently rejection trends, all of which can breakout in future.
GREEN TREND LINE, It's a superman strong trendline. IF PRICE CONFIRMS, YOU WANT IN.
WHITE GREEN HORIZTONAL, IDEAL bottom from the drop. 617.21??
GREEN HORIZONTAL, potential BOTTOM. (this number projects out some 2 years or so, and I'm not sure we see it until we see upside targets of ridiculous numbers, like 1200 or even 1800 per share.
I could then see NVDA taking down the market.
Which would bring price to 230.
That move is very possible.
620 to 800 buy nets 2 to 3x profit at those 1200 and 1800 price targets.
A drop from those price targets to 230 is just around 80%.
If you don't think a stock can lose 80% of its value and run to 5000, SEE META.
Too lazy to look?
Got ya covered.
Does it happening to META mean it will happen to NVDA??
NOT ONE BIT.
My point with that is that an 80% drop followed by a 600% run isn't totally out of reality.
Because it literally happened.
Multiple times, but I only used META as the example.
This chart covers TECHNICALS only.
Mostly Trends, Price targets.
But also, put/call.
check the ratio's heading into AUG thru NOV.
They look a little high to you?
Maybe it's just me because it's near 4/20.
www.barchart.com
Alright, I think that covers everything.
I'll add more when I see via updates to this chart.
IDK where the entry would be, but somewhere between now and 890.
I'm WRONG often, don't take my word for any of this chart.
Look everything up, pull from a lot of sources, do YOUR analysis and then make a decision.
GOOD LUCK.
APPLE Bouncing off extremely strong Support Cluster.Apple (AAPL) completed yesterday 3 straight green 1D candles, the longest such bullish streak in 3 months (since January 25). The rebound has been initiated inside the Lower Highs Zone that started after Apple's former All Time High (ATH) on January 04 2022.
The are a lot of recurring patterns involved as well, with one being that the current Channel Down that started on the December 14 2023 High, was rejected on the Resistance Zone that the previous Channel Down also did on the July 19 2023 High. That one made a Double Bottom on the Former ATH Lower Highs Zone after a rejection marginally above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before rebounding.
With the 1D RSI within a Channel Down as well since that High and having rebounded from its lowest level since February 2018, we have a very strong case for buying Apple, at least on the medium-term, targeting again the Resistance Zone's bottom at $198.00.
If it follows the pattern of the 2023 rally, we can even see it hitting the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at $211.00 or even higher by the end of the year since the pattern that on the January 03 2023 market bottom, is a Channel Up.
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Nasdaq 4h Daily Commentary
"#Nasdaq : On the 4-hour chart, there's a clear indication that the price continues to move downwards. If we are bearish, I expect to see the price fill the liquidity gap and then break the previous low, directing the liquidity in Tue 16 Orderblock. However, if we break the last bearish defense in the chart, it will lead us to anticipate a rally upwards. I will provide daily updates on the 4-hour charts. If you have any questions or something you would like me to include in my analysis tomorrow, please leave it in the comment section below.
Good luck to everyone in their trading endeavors!"
NVIDIA April 24Nvidia, do your own M M
Targeting Discount 50% fib ( 684 ) & 61.8 fib ( 615 )from LastLow 393 ~ HigherHigh 975
Buy plan, Purple
-Range 725 ~ 663
-Fomo : buy at 1st touch
-Safety but possible too late: buy at 2nd touch purple box or wait confirmation technical / news
try to get the Avg holding at 700 or under, as long as the price D1 closed bellow 787
Escape plan, Blue
-Avg Down, Range 628~600 to get Avg price under 690
-Cutloss / Partial sell : Nearest SBR base at 690
-2nd option, put into your Invest account, as long as the price W1 closed above 500, its still good for long term.
Target Plan, Green-Purple
-Head of HH range: 897~975
-To continue up trend , W1 need to closed above 975.
No retrace if the NVIDIA boosted by news. Otherwise Buy price Avg Up could be at 930.
And keep the Avg holding price under 833 when doing avg up