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Fiserv: Soon… ☺️Soon, Fiserv should reach the magenta colored zone between $134.09 and $140.81 and complete wave (B) in magenta – there is only little difference in altitude left. Once this top is placed, the share should turn downwards, heading for its next goal: the southern magenta colored zone between $108.96 and $89.26, where wave (C) in magenta and wave 4 in green should end. From there, wave 5 in green should carry Fiserv to the final top of wave I in gray, concluding an overarching upwards movement. There is a 33% chance, though, that the share could leave the next magenta zone on the upper side, developing wave alt.I in gray earlier already and thus cold-shouldering the magenta zone in the south.
NYSE:FI
by MarketIntel
Growth vs. Value: Skating to Where the Puck Will BeHockey legend Wayne Gretsky famously said: "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." This sometimes applies in investing and trading. Towards what object have investors been skating, figuratively speaking? Currently, financial media, fund managers, and commentators have been emphasizing the opportunities in value over growth for several months. And for good reason: Energy, a value / cyclical sector unloved for about a decade, has outperformed every other sector this year by a huge margin. It has risen by approximately 20.5% since January 1, 2022. Even it's uptrend channel could not contain it (although it looks to be consolidating at the moment or perhaps mean-reverting). Increasingly, market participants have been "skating" towards value areas and away from growth for over a year now, as anyone who has been burned by long trades in tech / disruptive innovation knows. For example, a spread chart (also called a ratio chart) of ARKK/SPY shows just how dramatically growth has struggled. ARKK is a well-known US ETF containing high-beta stocks typically categorized as disruptive-innovation stocks, i.e., high growth names. This chart evidences just how much growth has struggled vs. the S&P 500. Notice, though, how this spread chart shows how close to major, long-term support the ratio has moved. Examples abound of high-growth names having been crushed in powerful bear markets in those names. Some of them are even top names with innovative products and services and an impressive record of earnings / sales growth: Square ( NYSE:SQ ) has declined about -68% from all-time highs, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) fell about -81% from its high to its low in late January 2022, and ( Roku ) dropped about 78% from its peaks. Even large cap tech not gone unscathed: Facebook NASDAQ:FB suffered a nearly -50% decline after a huge earnings / guidance disappointment. But in general, large-cap tech has been the exception in growth until the selloff this year. While growth / tech in general has struggled for months, large-cap tech names such as GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA have outperformed. Even AMZN's sideways move for about a year should be considered outperformance relative to other high-growth names as shown by the ARKK chart above: see the chart below, which is a relative chart of AMZN vs. ARKK, revealing that even with AMZN's lengthy sideways move, it has dramatically outperformed growth / tech names more generally. Markets are in constant flux. So often, just when the little people (retail traders like me) take notice of a powerful new trend or outperformance, it ends. So I'm trying to watch for where markets are moving rather than focusing on where they are. In short, is growth bottoming out relative to value? Here are a few charts to consider. 1. The main weekly chart above (also copied below) is a spread chart showing the ratio of NASDAQ:IJT (small-cap growth) vs. small cap value. Notice how close to major long-term up trendline support the ratio has moved. And the weekly ratio is also right at support at March 2021 and May-June 2021 lows. The RSI for this relative chart also shows that it's oversold to 33.65, a level that only appears in multi-month (and often multi-year) intervals. Even the two RSI lows in 1H 2021 occurred 2 months apart, but this is the exception looking back longer term. 2. Large-cap growth is right at support at a long-term uptrend line. See the weekly spread chart of the ratio between XLK/SPY. AMEX:XLK is a US ETF that is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech. 3. Equal-weighted growth vs. equal-weighted tech RYG/RPV is also very close to long-term upward trendline support. 4. Interest rates are nearing long-term downtrend channel resistance—at the upper line (the actual downtrend line). Interest rates have soared powerfully since mid-2020, and the Federal Reserve has hawkishly signaled coming rate hikes, and market participants have behaved as though rates will keep on going to the moon—by selling tech / growth, which struggle when rates rise b/c of discounting of future cash flows used to value such names. The viewpoint that rates could turn around in the near future seems radical, contrarian and unreasonable. But consider this chart below. Could rates turn around just after a large move just after millions of market participants have been flocking towards value names that outperform in rising-rate environments? Some well-known experts have already taken this view. www.cnbc.com It seems priced into the market right now that the 10-year yield could continue rising, that the interest rates could even breakout higher above long-term downtrend resistance, and that the Fed is likely behind the curve in controlling inflation. It seems consensus that value could continue to outperform long-term, and that growth could break even long-term support levels and continue to plummet. But if this is priced into the market, shouldn't one consider buying what's already priced in? Especially because maybe what is priced into the market will not last. Thinking about where the "puck is going to be" may suggest that tech / growth is making a multi-month or multi-year low or that interest rates are going to pullback in the next few months, allowing tech to thrive again.
NASDAQ:IJT
by SquishTrade
4
NASDAQ technical rebound in playAs projected (in previous idea post), the NASDAQ futures spiked down to (almost) 13K and then bounced immediately. This happened on Thursday after the open initiation of the Russia-Ukraine global event. The following day continued the recovery rally. The Weekly candlestick is now very bullish looking as there formed an intraweek ultra long tail of almost 1K index points. While technicals point to a bearish scenario overall, the NASDAQ was briefly in bear correction territory but recovered. This suggest bullishness. The Daily candlestick pattern is also rather bullish, with a similar intraday long tail and a near marubozu body engulfing, followed through by another bullish candle that closed the day (and week) at the top. The MACD has a bullish divergence that is just turning upwards in support. Fractal bullishness here. The next couple of weeks in March are indicated to be bullish, through to 14.5K, and testing 15.5K. Whether the bullish effort is sustainable through past March remains to be seen. I am optimistic for the NASDAQ into March, but weary as March wanes into April...
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ under the microscopeWas just looking at the NASDAQ futures and the price actions over the market holiday yesterday amidst the hype and concerns over Russia-Ukraine issues. In the NQ1! 4H chart, recent multiple failures of the 55EMA (4H and Daily) technically projected downside for the NASDAQ (amongst other equity indexes). There appears to be a cyclical fear pattern over the last month, and in this current cycle, it should peak down today. Am expecting a spike down type of peak, that tests the support, breaks it somewhat and then a likely rebound ensues (as previously posted that NQ1! should be testing support). That's what the technicals are hinting to me anyways. There is a near support, but I am looking at possible spike down to 13,000 in the coming days. Longer term still looks volatile, and longer term target is still lower for now. Absolutely plausible for a major DCB and then a massive turn of events. I do have a date in mind though... 10 MAY 2022. Watch that date! Stay safe and well!!!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
7