SONOS (SONO) to explode higher post Q4 EarningsFundamental Analysis
Sonos is a technology company, that specializes in the home audio, wireless and multi-room sound systems. It's major competitors are Bose, JBL, Harmon Kardon, Cabasse in the higher-end home speaker space.
The firm sells a wide range of audio devices including connected speakers, subwoofers, soundbars for TVs and more.
Sonos made a big step in the right direction earlier this year, when the company entered into the popular portable smart speaker segment with its $179 mass-market Roam speaker.
The company has also seen a significant increase in demand for its products as a result of the consumer shift towards modern, connected devices, smart homes etc. and this tailwind is expected to continue to push the company forward as more people spend on home-based upgrades. Recognizing the fact that the company relies heavily on its hardware sales, the senior management at Sonos has slowly but surely began to diversify the company's business by introducing new services and features to its clients. The most recent one was the Sonos Radio HD, which is an ad-free streaming tier of its music service competing directly with the likes of Spotify and it costs $7.99 per month. Following the example of the leading tech giants out there like Apple (AAPL), Sonos wants to build an ecosystem of products and services that will increase the loyalty to the brand, its revenue streams and overall efficiency.
Sonos revenue climbed 11% in FY19 and 5% last year. Analysts expect call for its 2021 (year ended October 2) sales to surge more than 30% to over $1.8 billion, with FY22 projected to jump another 13% higher to come in at $1.95 billion. The company is expected to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.18 a share last year all the way to +$1.11 in FY21, with FY22 set to climb another 6% higher.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the stock has been in a sideways consolidation trading range in the last 8 months, after the huge BULL run in the Sept. 2020 - March 2021 period. We saw the stock failing to break the ATH resistance at the $44 mark on few occasions earlier in the Spring. Since then, the stock has been stuck within the broad $31-$44 range, with few sharp rises and declines. However, most recently we've seen a strong pickup in the bullish momentum for the stock heading into its Q4 Earnings report, which is scheduled to be released on November 17th after the market close. This shows that investors are positive about the future of the company and as a result expect to see the stock moving higher. We are seeing both the RSI and the Stochastic oscillators trending upwards on their daily graphs. The current position of the stock with respect to the above-mentioned price range as well as the upcoming earnings report, combined with the 4 straight Earnings beats that Sonos has produced in its last 4 EPS reports, we expect to see a major move to the upside for the stock in the coming weeks.
We see Sonos moving easily towards the higher end of the price range around $44 per share before the end of November, where it will face certain selling pressure as many pending SELL orders are waiting there. However, we believe that the stock will ultimately manage to break above this strong resistance, which will then open up the door for a strong rally towards the $55-60 range in Q1, 2022.
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PALANTIR - Possible bear trap in progress? Hi All, my main 3 take-outs from this analysis are the following:
1- Despite the huge volumes in the recent drop, I personally feel like this might be a bear trap
2- Inside candle pattern which might mean reversal anytime soon
3- Big descending wedge on the daily chart with take profit projection at all time high.
Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
$HSTECH Bearish Engulfing day followed by Island ReversalHSI Tech reversal
$BABA showed weakness last week and again led to the complex reversal.
It seems the counter-trend rally may have come to an end.
$HSI also has a smaller degree Island Reversal as well. It should lead to some volatility here on.
Seagate Breaks the DowntrendSeagate Technology has spent the last five months pulling back. But now it may be turning around.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the descending trendline that started in May and ran along the peaks of August and September. Notice how STX closed above that line on Friday.
Next, the jump followed two weeks of consolidation along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A bounce at that level may suggest its longer-term uptrend remains intact. It also occurred near the July 21 low at $78.86.
Third, consider why STX jumped last week: strong quarterly results and guidance. The hard-drive maker is enjoying a surge of demand from data-center customers. Its relatively low multiple (about 10 times forward earnings) could also provide some cushion against rising interest rates.
Finally, notice how the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is on the verge of rising above the 21-day EMA. STX may pause around its current level, but a cross of the 8-day EMA above the 21-day could signal shorter-term momentum has grown more positive.
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10x potential gain at long timeIt has been reacted to the below area of the channel. So may go back to the middle line at least then reach higher.
AMAZON targeting $4300 once the accumulation is over.Since the Subprime mortgage crisis, Amazon has been repeating a very distinct pattern. After every correction, it gets supported by either the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) or the 1W MA150 (red trend-line) and spends almost a year inside an accumulation zone. Once that's over, it targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the bottom of the correction.
The chart is on the log scale of course, in order to capture and better illustrate these patterns throughout AMZN's immense growth. See how the Accumulation Phases have a similar LMACD pattern every time.
Right now the price has only rebounded on the 1W MA50, three times since March 2021. I believe that as it happened in 2015 and 2020, it needs to hit one MA50 period lower than the first that supported and the next in line is the 1W MA100. Once successfully completed, I expect the price to make again a 2.0 Fib leap which right now is just over $4300.
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APPLE Further correction aheadPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and reverse to a buy either upon contact (buy signal last time) or when the CCI hits its Buy Zone (confirmed 3 times since November 2020).
Target: the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
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VMWARE MONTHLY AMAZING HEAD AND SHOULDERSVMware, Inc. is an American cloud computing and virtualization technology company headquartered in California. VMware was the first commercially successful company to virtualize the x86 architecture. Excellent bullish break of a head and shoulders on a monthly timeframe that can be used as an entry point on this asset.
SPLUNK GOOD OPPORTUNITIES Splunk Inc. is an American technology company based in San Francisco, California, that produces software for searching, monitoring, and analyzing machine-generated data via a Web-style interface.
Interesting situation on this asset, with a good price movement on the weekly basis. Scenario that opens the possibility to different operations with an excellent risk-return ratio. I report a bullish divergence on the weekly.
Quisitive Technology Solutions TA and thoughts $QUIS.VQuisitive $QUIS.V / $QUISF will report Q2 earnings on Aug 30th after the bell. This will be a company changing quarterly report IMO. For a detailed breakdown on what to expect for earnings you can follow my substack, I will be publishing an updated Q2 projection this weekend.
Price has failed to break lower on the last two selloffs. the 200 dma held and the stock bounced up Friday on light volume. Take in that volume contraction over August. Besides a few large buys that show up its been quiet on the Quis front. I believe Quis will run into earnings now this week. Its not going to take a whole lot to get us up to that overhead resistance I have lined out (1.68-1.70 range). This move up implies just over a 20% gain in 6 trading days.
Where the fun/risk comes into play is the market reaction to the numbers Quis puts up. IMO there is a chance Quis can push upwards of $24 million in revenue, which would be near 100% yoy growth. Again, my stack will breakdown this down in more detail. Furthermore what will drive sentiment is comments from CEO Mike Reinhart on LedgerPay commercialization being on schedule (no reason to believe it wont be) + any pilot projects that have been undertaken during Q3. Full Commercialization for LedgerPay is due after Visa Certification has been awarded, expected at end of Sept.
All in all, I believe there is a trade to be had here, as well as a good buy range at the start of the week for a long position. I also have quis's chart on stockcharts set up on weekly with rsi, macd and OBV - the stock is technically oversold and has a reasonably long runway if it moves up with purpose. I believe it will. Earnings could be the set up for a stronger push up near end of Sept when LP reaches full commercialization. Again, Mike Reinhart's comments will be key here to giving the market guidance.
I have a large position relative to my book in $QUIS.V, As always please do your own DD and follow your own trading rules.
Cheers,
Luke
NAS100 H1 SETUPThe Nas100 is trading at the top of a corrective structure on the H1 time frame and is currently in wave 4. This means that there are two options on the table. In my opinion we are more likely to see option one play out but that is definitely not guaranteed.
Option one is that the price breaks the top of the structure and moves to the target area of 15280.
Option two is that there is a retracement to complete wave 5 to the bottom of the structure before the reversal and break to the target area of 15235.
The weekly time frame setup suggests that the target to the upside is around the 15750 mark so I am looking to trade all the smaller long setups up to that level. From there I will need to watch for structure formations in order to see direction.
Happy trading!
Linton White
QuickTrade
Disclaimer
This information is not intended as advice or as a trading signal. Should you use this information in any way whatsoever, you do so at your own personal discretion.
DNEXSince last year we've seen tech rallies for many tech counters such as UWC, Greatech, Inari, MI, Penta and etc and most of it have achieved more than 100% of ROI if you bought it in early of 2020. The share price have been soared to so high to reflect the current earnings and attractive future prospects in semiconductor industry. If you are still looking for another potential tech counter that can bring you another 100% of ROI, why not just switch your attention to this counter, Dagangan Exchange Berhad or we called it DNEX.
Yes, this counter has been skyrocketing from 0.10 early of this year to current price of 0.81, with highest price done at around 1.00+ due to their acquisition of Silterra Malaysia Sdn Bhd, cooperated with CGP from China funds to win the bid from Khazanah. Another giant company from Taiwan, Foxconn or Hon Hai, the major supplier to Apple Company joined the game by taking up 5% of stakeholding in DNEX at the price of 0.90 per unit of share after they loss the Silterra deal to DNEX.
An interesting fact we can see from Bursa Malaysia, where there is a clear or obvious signal been showing to the market, for example Foxconn buying the shares of DNEX at 0.90, the market reacted immediately with gaping up of share price from 0.85 straight to 0.90+ in next trading day. Well, in this market situation where all the political uncertainties and rising of covid cases in Malaysia, panic buying is never a good thing in the market, especially in Bursa Malaysia. Worsened by conversion of company warrants that offered negative premium, the share price has been pressed down to nearly 0.65 before it rebounded to current price of 0.815.
Okey, now we've know what is happening for the past few months on this share counter, let's move our sight to the latest movement of this counter where we can see the price has rebounded from 0.67 forming higher low and higher high to current price level with support zone in the region of 0.78 -0.80 which can be act as the cut loss point for short term play. However, I do not suggest for any contra trade or short term play in this counter, where we can see the price movement for the past few months, fluctuating above and below EMA 25 & 50 that caused many short term players cut loss their trade position. Hence, I would suggest to hold for long term for this counter (at least 1 year) with high expectation on their semiconductor segment (their have other segments as well like oil and IT, you can check from their website) that high possibility of turnaround of Silterra Malaysia Berhad, with technical support provided by one of the key person from Foxconn further by more and more business that will be brought in by CGP (already announced long term contract value of USD400 mil or RM1.7b, oh please, contract value RM1.7b for a company with current market capital of RM2.5b, are they kidding?! Haha) and I believed more and more contracts will be brought in by CGP and FOXCONN!!. So here is my strategy:
Current Price: 0.815
Target Price 1: 0.90
Target Price 2: 1.00
Target Price 3: 1.50 (Mid - Long Term)
Target Price 4: 2.00 (Long Term)
Support 1: 0.78 - 0.80
Support 2: 0.70
Support 3: 0.65
Support 4: 0.56 - 0.60 (if break and close below, gg and can remove from the watchlist already).
DON'T get wedgied! Peak excitement on Friday - as retail traders pumped various markets with billions in cash. This was alongside institutional traders who had been bailing out.
Well, retail won a significant limb of this, from the bottom edge of what now looks like an ascending broadening wedge following a major bullish drive. Biden echoed the FED's mantra on transitory inflation in the last few days. That seemed to be a signal for retail traders on the apps to dive in.
Ascending broadening wedges after long bull drives north, are usually a signal of weakness. Just to be clear (and read my disclaimer below), this does not mean that the market will crash now. Price could move significantly up and whipsaw the top of the wedge before heading for the moon! 🌛
This wedge formation creates probabilities. Probabilities exist in minds. The probability estimate based on this snapshot (right now), is for a significant correction. This is not advice! This is opinion - a very different thing to advice.
How probabilities work : If 'you' estimate there is a 51% chance of a correction, that leaves a 49% chance there will be no correction. A lot of novice traders forget about the lesser probability, which does not favour their mindset.
There are other silent probabilities adding up in the background (DYOR): 90 year economic cycle, coinciding with 20 and 10 year cycles - and we're not out of the woods with a major pandemic. We are at year 11+. Some say 'cycles mean nothing'. Everybody is entitled to their own belief. I think these are dangerous times to be throwing money into the market going long.
If you are about to short this position, you have to have money that you can afford to lose. Read that again. If you can't lose money, stop trading - instantly!
Alternative reasoned perspectives are most welcome.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
CIDM Showing Signs Of LifeI drew the fib retracement starting from March 2020 lows and sure enough, it pinpointed a few key levels, the 786 fib line being one of them and CIDM is testing that as we speak. Depending on the volume and if this news event has some legs, CIDM could be one of the penny stocks to watch this week. A lot will likely come down to how it will close the day on 7/15/2021.
"Only a few days ago, it announced that it was forgiven for a $2.2 million Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan. East-West Bank paid off not only the loan in full but the principal and interest of the PPP loan as well. This is a big deal and should reflect positively on the companies balance sheet moving forward."
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Then today, the company reported preliminary fiscal Q4 results.It said consolidated revenue came in at $8.3 million, with streaming channel sales up 197% versus the prior-year quarter and 39% sequentially over last quarter, according to a regulatory filing. Streaming/digital revenue grew to 75% of group sales in the quarter versus 48% in the prior-year quarter. Also, CIDM announced a payoff of the remainder of its Prospect Digital Cinema loan in the amount of approximately $3.5 Million, effective July 9, 2021. Revenue from the sale of certain digital cinema equipment enabled the debt reduction and balance sheet improvement.
DPLS Playing out vs FibsDPLS has played out almost perfectly against the Fibonacci retracement so far. Considering that it was denied around $0.20, retraced the move back to the 786 fib line, which is also around 10/11 cents or about 0.005 shy of where DPLS got denied during the June rally is interesting. If you look at levels, around 4/5 cents in February was a resistance that couldn't be broken through until June. Then after DPLS was denied at nearly 10 cents, where did it pull back to and hold above? The 5 cent area. The volume will be something to pay attention to if DPLS is still on your watch list following the denial at the 618 fib and retracement back to the 786 in my opinion. Now the focus is where does DPLS find its new range? Based on the historical chart, which so far has come through, 13-15 cents was a previous area of traffic the last time DPLS was trading consistently above 10 cents. Will that become the interim pivot point in this latest move?
"Systems can quantify strains and stresses, adding to the safety profile of common industrial components. This includes monitoring structures such as pipelines, perimeters, aircraft components, and mining safety among others. Recently, the company announced the planned acquisition of TerraData Unmanned, PLC. This is a drone company that offers underwater inspection, 3D modeled mapping, and a variety of other services. 'As DarkPulse continues to build best in class technology service offerings to the critical infrastructure/key resources market we look for teams such as TerraData to bring experienced personnel and leading-edge equipment allowing the Company to operate AI-assisted inspection services in all mediums including land, sea, and air. TerraData’s ability to work in difficult marine environments with accuracy, efficiency, and expert results while eliminating risk to humans is a game-changer.' - DarkPulse CEO, Dennis O’Leary"
We'll have to see what happens next based on company news and technicals
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AMZN Breaking Out! $AMZN
Just broke a very crucial resistance line and should move higher. AMZN has been in an ascending triangle for the past year. We have just broke out of this pattern which historically implies further upside. Still trading at fair valuations (66x PE) given the growth potential. Also the news of the JEDI contract being rebid is very positive for AMZN, given the contact now could go to AMZN ( Worth 10b). When Microsoft received the JEDI contact critics claimed the Trump Admin was favoring Microsoft given AMZN's cloud computing abilities and the hostility between the Trump administration and Amazon. Amazon now has another chance to receive the JEDI contract which is huge for the company.
BABA - BUY 223.13 - Target 245 level by 4 AUGABA has broke the trend and will move in upward direction. Based on Elliot wave count analysis
1st Buying level - 223.13 - if it cross this level, then will touch 232.51
2nd Buying level - above 236.59 to 239 - if it cross 239 then will touch 245 ( Target July 27 to 5 Aug )
Note : There will be a minor pullback once it touches 232.